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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Mathematical modelling of flow distribution in the human cardiovascular system

The paper presents a detailed model of the entire human cardiovascular system which aims to study the changes in flow distribution caused by external stimuli, changes in internal parameters, or other factors. The arterial-venous network is represented by 325 interconnected elastic segments. The mathematical description of each segment is based on equations of hydrodynamics and those of stress/strain relationships in elastic materials. Appropriate input functions provide for the pumping of blood by the heart through the system. The analysis employs the finite-element technique which can accommodate any prescribed boundary conditions. Values of model parameters are from available data on physical and rheological properties of blood and blood vessels. As a representative example, simulation results on changes in flow distribution with changes in the elastic properties of blood vessels are discussed. They indicate that the errors in the calculated overall flow rates are not significant even in the extreme case of arteries and veins behaving as rigid tubes.

NASA Center JSC↗

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗

Development and Testing of a Vehicle Management System for Autonomous Spacecraft Habitat Operations

As the increased distance between Earth-based mission control and the spacecraft results in increasing communication delays, small crews cannot take on all functions performed by ground today, and so vehicles must be more automated to reduce the crew workload for such missions. In addition, both near-term and future missions will feature significant periods when crew is not present, meaning the vehicles will need to operate themselves autonomously. NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Program pioneers new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities, and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond low-Earth orbit. Under this program, NASA has developed and demonstrated multiple technologies to enable the autonomous operation of a dormant space habitat. These technologies included a fault-tolerant avionics architecture, novel spacecraft power system and power system controller, and autonomy software to control the habitat. The demonstration involved simulation of the habitat and multiple spacecraft sub-systems (power storage and distribution, avionics, and air-side life-support) during a multi-day test at NASA's Johnson Space Center. The foundation of the demonstration was ‘quiescent operations' of a habitat during a 55 minute eclipse period. For this demonstration, the spacecraft power distribution system and air-side life support system were simulated at a high level of fidelity; additional systems were managed, but with lower fidelity operational constraints and system behavior. Operational constraints for real and simulated loads were developed by analyzing on-orbit hardware and evaluating future Exploration capable technology. A total of 13 real and simulated loads were used during the test. Eight scenarios including both nominal and off-nominal conditions were performed. Over the course of the test, every application performed its desired functions successfully during the simulated tests. The results will inform both future tests, as well as provide insight to NASA's domestic and international partners, as they construct the next generation of space habitats to be used on beyond-Earth missions.

Autonomous Systems and Operations↗

Simulations of deep galaxy fields. 1: Monte Carlo simulations of optical and near-infrared counts

Monte Carlo simulations of three-dimensional galaxy distributions are performed, following the 1988 prescription of Chokshi & Wright, to study the photometric properties of evolving galaxy populations in the optical and near-infrared bands to high redshifts. In this paper, the first of a series, we present our baseline model in which galaxy numbers are conserved, and in which no explicit 'starburst' population is included. We use the model in an attempt to simultaneously fit published blue and near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations of deep fields. We find that our baseline models, with a formation redshift, z(sub f), of 1000, and H(sub 0) = 50, are able to reproduce the blue counts to b(sub j) = 22, independent of the value of Omega(sub 0), and also to provide a satisfactory fit to the observed blue-band redshift distributions, but for no value of Omega(sub 0) do we achieve an acceptable fit to the fainter blue counts. In the K band, we fit the number counts to the limit of the present-day surveys only for an Omega(sub 0) = 0 cosmology. We investigate the effect on the model fits of varying the cosmological parameters H(sub 0), the formation red-shift z(sub f), and the local luminosity function. Changing H(sub 0) does not improve the fits to the observations. However, reducing the epoch of a galaxy formation used in our simulations has a substantial effect. In particular, a model with z(sub f) approximately equal to 5 in a low Omega(sub 0) universe improves the fit to the faintest photometric blue data without any need to invoke a new population of galaxies, substantial merging, or a significant starburst galaxy population. For an Omega(sub 0) = 1 universe, however, reducing z(sub f) is less successful at fitting the blue-band counts and has little effect at all at K. Varying the parameters of the local luminosity function can also have a significant effect. In particular the steep low end slope of the local luminosity function of Franceschini et al. allows an acceptable fit to the b(sub j) less than or equal to 25 counts for Omega(sub 0) = 1, but is incompatible with Omega(sub 0) = 0.

Chokshi, Arati↗

Cloud-Based Orchestration of a Model-Based Power and Data Analysis Toolchain

The proposed Europa Mission concept contains many engineering and scientific instruments that consume varying amounts of power and produce varying amounts of data throughout the mission. System-level power and data usage must be well understood and analyzed to verify design requirements. Numerous cross-disciplinary tools and analysis models are used to simulate the system-level spacecraft power and data behavior. This paper addresses the problem of orchestrating a consistent set of models, tools, and data in a unified analysis toolchain when ownership is distributed among numerous domain experts. An analysis and simulation environment was developed as a way to manage the complexity of the power and data analysis toolchain and to reduce the simulation turnaround time. A system model data repository is used as the trusted store of high-level inputs and results while other remote servers are used for archival of larger data sets and for analysis tool execution. Simulation data passes through numerous domain-specific analysis tools and end-to-end simulation execution is enabled through a web-based tool. The use of a cloud-based service facilitates coordination among distributed developers and enables scalable computation and storage needs, and ensures a consistent execution environment. Configuration management is emphasized to maintain traceability between current and historical simulation runs and their corresponding versions of models, tools and data.

Post, Ethan↗

A Blueprint for Demonstrating Quantum Supremacy with Superconducting Qubits

Long coherence times and high fidelity control recently achieved in scalable superconducting circuits paved the way for the growing number of experimental studies of many-qubit quantum coherent phenomena in these devices. Albeit full implementation of quantum error correction and fault tolerant quantum computation remains a challenge the near term pre-error correction devices could allow new fundamental experiments despite inevitable accumulation of errors. One such open question foundational for quantum computing is achieving the so called quantum supremacy, an experimental demonstration of a computational task that takes polynomial time on the quantum computer whereas the best classical algorithm would require exponential time and/or resources. It is possible to formulate such a task for a quantum computer consisting of less than a 100 qubits. The computational task we consider is to provide approximate samples from a non-trivial quantum distribution. This is a generalization for the case of superconducting circuits of ideas behind boson sampling protocol for quantum optics introduced by Arkhipov and Aaronson. In this presentation we discuss a proof-of-principle demonstration of such a sampling task on a 9-qubit chain of superconducting gmon qubits developed by Google. We discuss theoretical analysis of the driven evolution of the device resulting in output approximating samples from a uniform distribution in the Hilbert space, a quantum chaotic state. We analyze quantum chaotic characteristics of the output of the circuit and the time required to generate a sufficiently complex quantum distribution. We demonstrate that the classical simulation of the sampling output requires exponential resources by connecting the task of calculating the output amplitudes to the sign problem of the Quantum Monte Carlo method. We also discuss the detailed theoretical modeling required to achieve high fidelity control and calibration of the multi-qubit unitary evolution in the device. We use a novel cross-entropy statistical metric as a figure of merit to verify the output and calibrate the device controls. Finally, we demonstrate the statistics of the wave function amplitudes generated on the 9-gmon chain and verify the quantum chaotic nature of the generated quantum distribution. This verifies the implementation of the quantum supremacy protocol.

Kechedzhi, Kostyantyn↗

Meta-Learning Enhanced Physics-Informed Graph Attention Convolutional Network for Distribution Power System State Estimation

Promptly perceiving distribution system states is challenged by frequent topology changes and uncertain power injections. To address these issues, a Meta-learning enhanced physics-informed graph attention convolutional network (Meta-PIGACN) model is proposed to handle topological variability in distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Specifically, physics information is integrated into the graph convolutional network, enabling a physics-informed edge-weighting process that incorporates physical information to control the aggregation of neighboring nodes. Besides, the graph attention mechanism automatically adjusts the importance of different neighboring nodes, allowing the capture and preservation of inherent system features across varying topologies, thereby improving state estimation accuracy. Furthermore, meta-learning is proposed to acquire empirical knowledge across multiple topologies so that the model can rapidly adapt to new configurations through iterative gradient descent updates even in large-scale systems. In conclusion, the simulation results based on the 33/118/1746-node distribution systems show the high accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Relationship of the interplanetary electric field to the high-latitude ionospheric electric field and currents Observations and model simulation

The electrical coupling between the solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere is studied. The coupling is analyzed using observations of high-latitude ion convection measured by the Sondre Stromfjord radar in Greenland and a computer simulation. The computer simulation calculates the ionospheric electric potential distribution for a given configuration of field-aligned currents and conductivity distribution. The technique for measuring F-region in velocities at high time resolution over a large range of latitudes is described. Variations in the currents on ionospheric plasma convection are examined using a model of field-aligned currents linking the solar wind with the dayside, high-latitude ionosphere. The data reveal that high-latitude ionospheric convection patterns, electric fields, and field-aligned currents are dependent on IMF orientation; it is observed that the electric field, which drives the F-region plasma curve, responds within about 14 minutes to IMF variations in the magnetopause. Comparisons of the simulated plasma convection with the ion velocity measurements reveal good correlation between the data.

Clauer, C. R.↗

Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) Plume Design Reference Mission (DRM) Inter-Satellite Link Modeling, Analysis and Simulation

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Radical Innovation Initiative (RI2) plans to focus intently on DSM capability advancements in FY22-24. A DSM mission involves multiple spacecraft, arranged in a constellation, to achieve one or more common goals via the use of inter-satellite links (ISL) between the satellites. Recently, the GSFC Internal Research & Development (IRAD) program established Enceladus as a design reference mission (DRM) for the current DSM effort to foster the conceptual development of communication architecture, requirements, and solutions for future DSM ISL, as well as being able to push other research areas of interest. Enceladus is an icy moon of the planet Saturn. The DRM Enceladus mission concept involves a constellation of 24 small satellites, orbiting Enceladus around 100 km altitude in 3 planes, as observing nodes for science measurement. The mission science data will be sent back to Earth through a relay orbiting Saturn, using the constellation’s inter-satellite links. A QualNet/STK simulation model of the Relay and constellation ISL optical and RF links is developed for the design and optimization of the link and orbital parameters, as well as the inter-networking protocols. Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is utilized in the application layer modeling. This paper describes the plume DRM mission concept of an Enceladus constellation to relay science data to Earth and includes the proposed communication architecture and operation concepts. We present details of the QualNet/STK engineering model for this communication scenario to simulate the end-to-end data traffic through multiple layers (physical, data link, networking, transport and application). A link analysis for the constellation’s ISL, constellation to Relay and Direct to Earth (DTE) optical link is provided and discussed. The results of end-to-end traffic simulation for the data throughout/latency evaluation and assessment of the communication architecture are presented. The investigation of the concept of optical multiple access (OMA) for the Plume DRM is discussed. The modeling and simulation methodology developed in this paper is applicable to other DSMs in near Earth and deep space such as Earth-Moon L1/L2 and Lunar regions.

Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) Inter-satelli↗

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantitative Characterization of Lunar Regolith Simulants for Direct Comparison to Apollo Soil Samples

Introduction: Sustained characterization efforts of lunar regolith simulant properties are not only integral for verification of commercially-produced material designed for a wide array of testing applications but are also necessary in establishing a comprehensive comparison to a lunar reference source. As a resource for the lunar science and engineering communities, the Simulant Development Lab (SDL) within the Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science (ARES) division at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is actively pursuing closure of existing knowledge gaps in fundamental simulant attributes, including chemistry, mineralogy, particle size distribution, particle geometry, bulk and relative density, magnetic susceptibility, and shear strength (i.e., cohesion and angle of internal friction), as well as producing Figures of Merit for comparison of lunar simulants to Apollo regolith samples.

R. Kovtun↗

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Empirical Model For Intrinsic Alignments: Insights From Cosmological Simulations

We extend current models of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) to include a flexible, empirical framework for the forward modeling of the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies. A primary goal of this work is to produce mock galaxy catalogs for the purpose of validating existing models and methods for the mitigation of IA in weak lensing measurements. This technique can also be used to produce new, simulation-based predictions for IA and galaxy clustering. Our model is probabilistically formulated, and rests upon the assumption that the orientations of galaxies exhibit a correlation with their host dark matter (sub)halo orientation or with their position within the halo. We examine the necessary components and phenomenology of such a model by considering the alignments between (sub)halos in a cosmological dark matter only simulation. We then validate this model for a realistic galaxy population in a set of simulations in the Illustris-TNG suite. We create an HOD mock with Illustris-like correlations using our method, constraining the associated IA model parameters, with the $\mathcal{X}$$^{2}_{dof}$ between our model’s correlations and those of Illustris matching as closely as 1.4 and 1.1 for orientation–position and orientation–orientation correlation functions, respectively. By modeling the misalignment between galaxies and their host halo, we show that the 3-dimensional two-point position and orientation correlation functions of simulated (sub)halos and galaxies can be accurately reproduced from quasi-linear scales down to 0.1 $\mathcal{h}$ –1 Mpc. We also find evidence for environmental influence on IA within a halo. Our publicly-available software provides a key component enabling efficient determination of Bayesian posteriors on IA model parameters using observational measurements of galaxy-orientation correlation functions in the highly nonlinear regime.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗

CityLearn v2: energy-flexible, resilient, occupant-centric, and carbon-aware management of grid-interactive communities

As more distributed energy resources become part of the demand-side infrastructure, quantifying their energy flexibility on a community scale is crucial. CityLearn v1 provided an environment for benchmarking control algorithms. However, there is no standardized environment utilizing realistic building-stock datasets for distributed energy resource control benchmarking without co-simulation or third-party frameworks. CityLearn v2 extends CityLearn v1 by providing a stand-alone simulation environment that leverages the End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock dataset to create grid-interactive communities for resilient, multi-agent, and objective control of distributed energy resources with dynamic occupant feedback. While the v1 environment used pre-simulated building thermal loads, the v2 environment uses data-driven thermal dynamics and eliminates the need for co-simulation with building energy performance software. This work details the v2 environment and provides application examples that use reinforcement learning control to manage battery energy storage system, vehicle-to-grid control, and thermal comfort during heat pump power modulation.

Nweye, Kingsley↗

The sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to climate change

The role of the terrestrial biosphere in controlling atmospheric CO2 levels during climate perturbations is estimated. Simulations are used to calculate the local geographical distribution of vegetation during the last glacial maximum. The known changes in sea level at this time, together with the simulated climate-driven spatial arrangement of vegetation, result in a mass transfer of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere ranging from 30 Gt (corresponding to 15 ppm CO2) to -50 Gt (25 ppm). Thus, although the biosphere may have contributed to the decrease in atmospheric CO2 at 80 ppm, known to have occurred at 18 kyr, it does not seem to have been a dominant factor. For simulations run with twice the present-day CO2 levels, strong negative feedbacks appear which remove 235 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere.

Prentice, Katharine C.↗