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DOE OSTI2021

Potential of hotspot solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence for better tracking terrestrial photosynthesis

Abstract Remote sensing of solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) opens a new window for quantifying a key ecological variable, the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), because of the revealed strong SIF–GPP correlation. However, similar to many other remotely sensed metrics, SIF observations suffer from the sun‐sensor geometry effects, which may have important impacts on the SIF–GPP relationship but remain poorly understood. Here we used remotely sensed SIF, globally distributed tower GPP data, and a mechanistic model to provide a systematic analysis. Our results reveal that leaf physiology, canopy structure, and sun‐sensor geometries all affect the SIF–GPP relationship. In particular, we found that SIF observations in the sun‐tracking hotspot direction can be a better proxy of GPP due to the similar responses of light use efficiency and SIF escaping probability in the hotspot direction to the increasing incoming solar radiation. Such conclusions are supported by a variety of modeling simulations and satellite observations over various plant function types, at different time scales and with satellite observational modes. This study demonstrates the potential and advantage of normalizing SIF observations to the hotspot direction for better global GPP estimations. This study also demonstrates the great potentials of current and future spaceborne sun‐tracking satellite missions for a significant improvement in measuring and monitoring, at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, the changes in terrestrial ecosystem GPP in response to anticipated changes in the Earth's environmental conditions.

Hao, Dalei↗

DOE OSTI2017

Langmuir probe study of an inductively coupled magnetic-pole-enhanced helium plasma

This study reports the effects of RF power and filling gas pressure variation on the plasma parameters, including the electron number density n{sub e}, electron temperature T{sub e}, plasma potential V{sub p}, skin depth δ, and electron energy probability functions (EEPFs) in a low-pressure inductively coupled helium plasma source with magnetic pole enhancement. An RF compensated Langmuir probe is used to measure these plasma parameters. It is observed that the electron number density increases with both the RF power and the filling gas pressure. Conversely, the electron temperature decreases with increasing RF power and gas pressure. It is also noted that, at low RF powers and gas pressures, the EEPFs are non-Maxwellian, while at RF powers of ≥50 W, they evolve into a Maxwellian distribution. The dependences of the skin depth and plasma potential on the RF power are also studied and show a decreasing trend.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Investigation of Poorly Studied Open Cluster NGC 4337 Using Multicolor Photometric and Gaia DR2 Astrometric Data

We present a comprehensive analysis (photometric and kinematical) of the poorly studied open cluster NGC 4337 using 2MASS, WISE, APASS, and Gaia DR2 databases. By determining the membership probabilities of stars, we identified the 624 most probable members with membership probability higher than 50% by using proper motion and parallax data taken from Gaia DR2. The mean proper motion of the cluster is obtained as μ{sub x}=−8.83±0.01 and μ {sub y} = 1.49 ± 0.006 mas yr{sup −1}. We find the normal interstellar extinction toward the cluster region. The radial distribution of members provides a cluster radius of 7.′75 (5.63 pc). The estimated age of 1600 ± 180 Myr indicates that NGC 4337 is an old open cluster with a bunch of red giant stars. The overall mass function slope for main-sequence stars is found as 1.46±0.18 within the mass range 0.75−2.0 M{sub ⊙}, which is in fair agreement with Salpeter’s value (x = 1.35) within uncertainty. The present study demonstrates that NGC 4337 is a dynamically relaxed open cluster. Using the Galactic potential model, Galactic orbits are obtained for NGC 4337. We found that this object follows a circular path around the Galactic center. Under the kinematical analysis, we compute the apex coordinates (A, D) by using two methods: (i) the classical convergent point method and (ii) the AD-diagram method. The obtained coordinates are (A {sub conv}, D {sub conv}) = (96.°27 ± 0.°10, 13.°14 ± 0.°27) and (A {sub ◦}, D {sub ◦}) = (100.°282 ± 0.°10, 9.°577 ± 0.°323) respectively. We also computed the Velocity Ellipsoid Parameters, matrix elements (μ {sub ij}), direction cosines (l {sub j}, m {sub j}, n {sub j}), and the Galactic longitude of the vertex (l {sub 2}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

{alpha}-decay and fusion phenomena in heavy ion collisions using nucleon-nucleon interactions derived from relativistic mean-field theory

Nucleus-nucleus potentials are determined in the framework of the double-folding model for a new microscopic nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction relativistic mean field-3-Yukawa (R3Y) derived from the popular relativistic mean-field theory Lagrangian, and the results are compared for the use of Michigan-3-Yukawa (M3Y) effective NN interactions. The double-folding potentials so obtained are further taken up in the context of the preformed cluster model (PCM) of Gupta and collaborators and the barrier penetration model to study respectively the ground-state (g.s.) {alpha}-decay and low-energy fusion reactions. In this paper, using PCM, we deduce empirically the {alpha} preformation probability P{sub 0}{sup {alpha}(emp)} from experimental data on a few g.s. {alpha} decays in the trans-lead region. For fusion reactions, two projectile-target systems {sup 12}C+{sup 208}Pb and {sup 16}O+{sup 208}Pb are selected for calculating the barrier energies as well positions, fusion cross sections ({sigma}{sub fus}), and fusion barrier distribution [D(E{sub c.m.})]. The barrier energies and positions change for the R3Y NN interactions in comparison with those of the M3Y NN interactions. We find that in the {alpha}-decay studies the values of P{sub 0}{sup {alpha}(emp)}(R3Y) are similar to those of P{sub 0}{sup {alpha}(emp)}(M3Y). Further, both NN interactions give similar {sigma}{sub fus} values using the Wong formula specifically when the R3Y NN interaction calculated {sigma}{sub fus} values are reduced by 1.5 times, and the results are in agreement with the experimental data for both the systems, especially for the higher energies. Results for D(E{sub c.m.}) are also quite similar for both choices of NN interaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field validation of data-driven BSDF and peak extraction models for light-scattering fabric shades

Shading and daylighting systems affect cooling, heating, and lighting energy use by modulating solar radiation through the building façade. Characterizing shading systems holistically and accurately helps designers and engineers evaluate shading systems to achieve energy and non-energy performance goals. These complex fenestration systems can be modeled using Bidirectional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF), which map incident radiation to hemispherical distributions of outgoing radiation. Data-driven, tabulated BSDFs are derived from interpolated goniophotometer measured data, then sampled during the raytracing calculation. A peak extraction (PE) algorithm was developed to circumvent limits in BSDF angular resolution, where the specular peak is extracted during simulation by evaluating the BSDF in the through direction and surrounding region. The objective of this study was to validate this measurement and modeling workflow using field monitored data from a full scale testbed with eleven installed fabrics of different weaves, openness factors, and colors and assess the accuracy of the workflow under different adaptation and contrast conditions. Test conditions were limited to clear sky conditions with the sun in the field of view. Results showed that, for tensor tree datasets, vertical illuminance, solar luminance (2.5° apex), and daylight glare probability (DGP) were predicted to within a mean bias error (MBE) error of -456 lx (-12.3%), -3.46e5 (-38.4%), and -0.042 (-7.8%) when full PE occurred. With a binary classification of glare/ no glare, DGP was predicted accurately with a true positive rate of 0.98 and true negative rate of 1.0 using tensor tree data and less accurately with Klems BSDF data, particularly for cases of no glare. The workflow may be of insufficient accuracy to distinguish borderline performance between fabrics using the four-point glare scale, particularly under low adaptation, high contrast daylit conditions. Errors were due to reductions in peak shape and intensity across the BSDF interpolation and data reduction workflow. Future work is needed to better preserve measurement fidelity during interpolation and sampling, which in turn will improve PE performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2012

The principal component analysis method used with polynomial Chaos expansion to propagate uncertainties through critical transport problems

A critical neutron transport problem with random material properties is introduced. The total cross section and the average neutron multiplicity are assumed to be uncertain, characterized by the mean and variance with a log-normal distribution. The average neutron multiplicity and the total cross section are assumed to be uncorrected and the material properties for differing materials are also assumed to be uncorrected. The principal component analysis method is used to decompose the covariance matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors and then 'realizations' of the material properties can be computed. A simple Monte Carlo brute force sampling of the decomposed covariance matrix is employed to obtain a benchmark result for each test problem. In order to save computational time and to characterize the moments and probability density function of the multiplication factor the polynomial chaos expansion method is employed along with the stochastic collocation method. A Gauss-Hermite quadrature set is convolved into a multidimensional tensor product quadrature set and is successfully used to compute the polynomial chaos expansion coefficients of the multiplication factor. Finally, for a particular critical fuel pin assembly the appropriate number of random variables and polynomial expansion order are investigated. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantization of the Electromagnetic Field in Three-Dimensional Photonic Structures on the Basis of the Scattering Matrix Formalism (S Quantization)

A technique for quantization of the electromagnetic field in photonic nanostructures with three-dimensional modulation of the dielectric constant is developed on the basis of the scattering matrix formalism (S quantization in the three-dimensional case). Quantization is based on equating the eigenvalues of the scattering matrix to unity, which is equivalent to equating each other the sets of Fourier expansions for the fields of the waves incident on the structure and propagating away from the structure. The spatial distribution of electromagnetic fields of the modes in a photonic nanostructure is calculated on the basis of the R and T matrices describing the reflection and transmission of the Fourier components by the structure. To calculate the reflection and transmission coefficients of individual real-space and Fourier-space components, the structure is divided into parallel layers within which the dielectric constant varies as a function of two-dimensional coordinates. Using the Fourier transform, Maxwell’s equations are written in the form of a matrix connecting the Fourier components of the electric field at the boundaries of neighboring layers. Based on the calculated reflection and transmission vectors for all polarizations and Fourier components, the scattering matrix for the entire structure is formed and quantization is carried out by equating the eigenvalues of the scattering matrix to unity. The developed method makes it possible to obtain the spatial profiles of eigenmodes without solving a system of nonlinear integro-differential equations and significantly reduces the computational resources required for calculating the probability of spontaneous emission in three-dimensional systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel distribution, and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight winds of 123 mph every 2500 years, and 132mph every 6250 years at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the W98 report (which also used the Gumbel distribution for wind speeds) which gave wind speeds of 115mph and 122 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation accumulation periods, we compared the fits of three different theoretical extreme-value distributions, and in the end decided to maintain the use of the Gumbel distribution for each period. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years was estimated as 7.8 inches and 8.4 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 10.4 inches and 11.1 inches, respectively. These values are substantially lower than comparable values provided in the W98 report. This is largely a consequence of the W98 use of a different extreme value distribution with its corresponding higher extreme probabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Convenient analytical solution for vibrational distribution function of molecules colliding with a wall

We study formation of the Vibrational Distribution Function (VDF) in a molecular gas at low pressure, when vibrational levels are excited by electron impact and deactivated in collisions with walls and show that this problem has a convenient analytical solution that can be used to obtain VDF and its dependence on external parameters. The VDF is determined by excitation of vibrational levels by an external source and deactivation in collisions with the wall. Deactivation in wall collisions is little known process. However, we found that the VDF is weakly dependent on the functional form of the actual form of probability ${\gamma }_{\upsilon ^{\prime} \to \upsilon }$ for a vibrational number $\upsilon ^{\prime} $ to transfer into a lower level $\upsilon $ at the wall. Because for a given excitation source of vibrational states, the problem is linear the solution for VDF involves solving linear matrix equation. The matrix equation can be easily solved if we approximate probability, in the form: ${\gamma }_{\upsilon ^{\prime} \to \upsilon }=(1/\upsilon ^{\prime} )\theta (\upsilon ^{\prime} -\upsilon ).$ In this case, the steady-state solution for VDF($\upsilon $) simply involves a sum of source rates for levels above $\upsilon ,$ with a factor of $1/(\upsilon +1).$ As an example of application, we study the vibrational kinetics in a hydrogen gas and verify the analytical solution by comparing with a full model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Measurements of the $W$ Boson Mass with the D0 Detector

In the first part, we describe what is the W boson mass in the context of the Standard Model. We discuss the prominent role this physical observable plays in the determination of the internal self consistency of the Electroweak Sector. We review measurements and calculation of the W boson mass done in past and argue about the importance and feasibility of improving the experimental determination. We give a description of the Fermilab Tevatron Collider and the D0 detector, highlighting the relevant parts for the measurement described in this Dissertation. In the second part, we give a detailed description of a measurement of the W boson mass using the D0 Central Calorimeter. The measurement uses 1.68 x 10 6 candidates from W → en decays, corresponding to 4.3 fb -1 of integrated luminosity collected from 2006 to 2009. We measure the mass using the transverse mass, electron transverse momentum, and missing transverse energy distributions. The transverse mass and electron transverse momentum measurements are the most precise and are combined to give MW = 80.367 ± 0.013(stat) ± 0.023 (syst) GeV = 80.367 ± 0.026 GeV. This is combined with an earlier D0 result determined using an independent 1 fb -1 data sample, also with central electrons only, to give M W = 80.375± 0.023 GeV. The uncertainty in the measurement is dominated by the determination of the calorimeter electron energy scale, the W sample size, the knowledge of the parton distribution function. In the third part, we discuss methods of reducing the dominant uncertainties in the W boson mass measurements. We show that introducing electrons detected in the End Calorimeters greatly reduce the measurement systematic uncertainty, especially the on related to the parton distribution functions. We describe a precise calibration of the End Calorimeter using Z → ee events corresponding to 4.3 fb -1 of integrated luminosity. The calibration is an important milestone in a measurement that explores a larger part of the D0 Calorimeter. We present parametrized models that describe the response of the End Calorimeters to electron showers and soft hadronic particles, giving special attention to the specific challenges of a measurement in the forward region: the inhomogeneity of the uninstrumented materials, the large hadronic energy flow in the calorimeter and the jet misidentification probability.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Scattering Angular Distributions in the ENDF/B Nuclear Data Library

Nuclear reactors function by controlling the chain reaction of fission events in a fissile material. Understanding the gain and loss of neutrons is crucial for controlling this chain reaction. The role of fission in liberating neutrons from nuclei is well known. The fact that neutrons can scatter out of a reactor and therefore be lost is less well appreciated. Scattering can happen within fissile fuel or off of any number of the non-fissile structural components holding a reactor together. The scattering angular distributions for reactor material are the quantity that give the probability for a particle (usually a neutron) to scatter off a nucleus into a given angle. The Evaluated Nuclear Data File/B (ENDF/B) nuclear data library is the most complete and authoritative reference for neutron scattering data, containing reaction cross sections and outgoing particle distributions (including scattering angular distributions). In this project, we will compare the scattering angular distributions given in these ENDF/B data sets with those that can be derived using the Blatt-Biedenharn formalism and the resolved resonance data also in the ENDF/B files. More comparisons between the scattering angular distributions of relevant isotopes will help identify and correct any errors in the ENDF/B files. The results of this study will be an important component of the next major release of the ENDF/B library.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2010

X-RAY PROPERTIES OF YOUNG EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES. I. X-RAY LUMINOSITY FUNCTION OF LOW-MASS X-RAY BINARIES

We have compared the combined X-ray luminosity function (XLF) of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) detected in Chandra observations of young, post-merger elliptical galaxies with that of typical old elliptical galaxies. We find that the XLF of the 'young' sample does not present the prominent high-luminosity break at L{sub X} > 5 x 10{sup 38} erg s{sup -1} found in the old elliptical galaxy XLF. The 'young' and 'old' XLFs differ with a 3{sigma} statistical significance (with a probability less than 0.2% that they derive from the same underlying parent distribution). Young elliptical galaxies host a larger fraction of luminous LMXBs (L{sub X} > 5 x 10{sup 38} erg s{sup -1}) than old elliptical galaxies and the XLF of the young galaxy sample is intermediate between that of typical old elliptical galaxies and that of star-forming galaxies. This observational evidence may be related to the last major/minor mergers and the associated star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Voltage Probability Density Function Shaping Control Strategy Considering Grid Operational Uncertainties

It is well-known that power systems operation always affected by various uncertainties which make the bus voltage a random process that can be characterized by its probability density function (PDF) at any time instant. In this context, this paper presents a novel PDF-based voltage control framework for power systems. By modeling voltage as a stochastic process, we formulate a stochastic differential equationthat captures grid uncertainties. The associated Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation is derived to describe the evolution of the voltage PDF, which enables the formulation of a PDF-shaping control strategy. To simplify the PDF control formulation, a B-spline neural network is introduced for real-time estimation and regulation of the voltage distribution. The proposed PDF control law updates voltage references for energy storage systems and synchronous generators using real-time PDF measurements and feedback signals. The proposed method is validated on a modified Kundur’s two-area system. Simulation results demonstrate that the controller can significantly improve the voltage stability under stochastic conditions, highlighting its effectiveness in modern inverter-rich grids.

Gui, Yonghao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000250435534)↗

DOE OSTI2017

Data-driven, Interpretable Photometric Redshifts Trained on Heterogeneous and Unrepresentative Data

We present a new method for inferring photometric redshifts in deep galaxy and quasar surveys, based on a data-driven model of latent spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and a physical model of photometric fluxes as a function of redshift. This conceptually novel approach combines the advantages of both machine learning methods and template fitting methods by building template SEDs directly from the spectroscopic training data. This is made computationally tractable with Gaussian processes operating in flux–redshift space, encoding the physics of redshifts and the projection of galaxy SEDs onto photometric bandpasses. This method alleviates the need to acquire representative training data or to construct detailed galaxy SED models; it requires only that the photometric bandpasses and calibrations be known or have parameterized unknowns. The training data can consist of a combination of spectroscopic and deep many-band photometric data with reliable redshifts, which do not need to entirely spatially overlap with the target survey of interest or even involve the same photometric bands. We showcase the method on the i -magnitude-selected, spectroscopically confirmed galaxies in the COSMOS field. The model is trained on the deepest bands (from SUBARU and HST ) and photometric redshifts are derived using the shallower SDSS optical bands only. We demonstrate that we obtain accurate redshift point estimates and probability distributions despite the training and target sets having very different redshift distributions, noise properties, and even photometric bands. Our model can also be used to predict missing photometric fluxes or to simulate populations of galaxies with realistic fluxes and redshifts, for example.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Theoretical calculations of rotationally inelastic collisions of He with NaK(A {sup 1}Σ{sup +}): Transfer of population, orientation, and alignment

We have performed extensive calculations to investigate thermal energy, rotationally inelastic collisions of NaK (A{sup 1}Σ{sup +}) with He. We determined a potential energy surface using a multi-reference configuration interaction wave function as implemented by the GAMESS electronic structure code, and we have performed coupled channel scattering calculations using the Arthurs and Dalgarno formalism. We also calculate the Grawert coefficients B{sub λ}(j, j′) for each j → j′ transition. These coefficients are used to determine the probability that orientation and alignment are preserved in collisions taking place in a cell environment. The calculations include all rotational levels with j or j′ between 0 and 50, and total (translational and rotational) energies in the range 0.0002–0.0025 a.u. (∼44–550 cm{sup −1}). The calculated cross sections for transitions with even values of Δj tend to be larger than those for transitions with odd Δj, in agreement with the recent experiments of Wolfe et al. (J. Chem. Phys. 134, 174301 (2011)). The calculations of the energy dependence of the cross sections and the calculations of the fraction of orientation and alignment preserved in collisions also exhibit distinctly different behaviors for odd and even values of Δj. The calculations also indicate that the average fraction of orientation or alignment preserved in a transition becomes larger as j increases. We interpret this behavior using the semiclassical model of Derouard, which also leads to a simple way of visualizing the distribution of the angles between the initial and final angular momentum vectors j and j′. Finally, we compare the exact quantum results for j → j′ transitions with results based on the simpler, energy sudden approximation. That approximation is shown to be quite accurate.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential for specialized applications in segmented inverse beta decay (IBD) neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Although this method may easily extend to 3D scalar fields, our focus here is on 2D real-valued fields as it directly applies to directionality. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗

DOE OSTI2011

Towards a bayesian seismotectonic zoning for use in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)

The mathematical representation of seismic sources is an important part of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. It reflects the association of the seismicity with the tectonically-active geological structures evidenced by seismotectonic studies. Given that most active faults are not characterized well enough, seismic sources are generally defined as areal zones, delimited with finite boundary polygons, within which the geological features of active tectonics and the seismicity are deemed homogeneous (e.g., focal depth, seismicity rate, and maximum magnitude). Besides the lack of data (e.g., narrow range of recorded magnitudes), the application of this representation generates different problems: 1) a large sensitivity of resulting hazard maps on the location of zone boundaries, while these boundaries are set by expert decision; 2) the zoning can not represent any variation in faulting mechanism; 3) the seismicity rates are distributed throughout the zones and we lose the location of the determinant information used for their calculation. We propose an exploratory study for an alternative procedure in area source modeling. First, different data (e.g., geomorphology, geology, fault orientations) will be combined by using automated spatial partitioning (investigation of both supervised and unsupervised methods) in order to obtain several information classes, which may be defined as areal source zones. Then, a given hypocenter belonging to a given ''zone'', from now on called seismicity model, will be expressed by a probability computed from the 2D (spatial) probability density function (pdf) for the active tectonic model used as an a priori and updated with specific data from seismicity catalogs (e.g., focal mechanism) or other new data sources (e.g., geomorphology, subsurface exploration). This hypocenter will thus be allowed to contribute to several models, with weights given by the value of the pdf for each model. The annual rate of occurrence, for a given model, will be calculated by the weighted average of the different hypocenter contributions contained in this model. Future applications will couple the seismicity models to Ground Motion Prediction Equations. In consequence, the results will provide the full spectrum of variability in the hazard and will highlight zones badly constrained and deserving to be more studied.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generation of random geological models using multi-randomization for machine learning

Generating high-fidelity geological models is essential for advancing machine learning (ML) methods in automated seismic interpretation. For instance, seismic images paired with corresponding fault labels are foundational for ML-based fault detection from seismic migration sections. While several open-access datasets of random geological models exist, open-source tools specifically designed to produce large volumes of such models for ML applications remain scarce. To address this gap, we present RGM (Random Geological Model), an open-source software package for efficiently generating 2D and 3D synthetic geological models tailored for ML workflows. RGM supports the creation of diverse model components, including medium property distributions (P-/S-wave velocities and density), seismic reflectivity images (i.e., synthetic migration sections), relative geological time, and discrete fault attributes such as probability, dip, strike, rake, and displacement. It also accommodates the creation of complex geological features such as salt bodies and unconformities. The model generation algorithm employs a multi-randomization strategy, yielding an effectively infinite-dimensional model space that encompasses a wide range of geological scenarios and associated seismic features. Furthermore, RGM incorporates a method to generate synthetic elastic migration images using analytical elastic reflection coefficients combined with frequency-dependent scaling. This functionality enables the creation of training datasets for ML models that leverage elastic seismic images. RGM is implemented in modern object-oriented Fortran, allowing users to flexibly control statistical parameters governing model variability. We demonstrate the capability, performance, and geological realism of the package through comprehensive 2D and 3D examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗