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UP2 400 High Activity Oxide Legacy Waste Retrieval Project Scope and Progress-13048

The High Activity Oxide facility (HAO) reprocessed sheared and dissolved 4500 metric tons of light water reactor fuel the fuel of the emerging light water reactor spent fuel between 1976 and 1998. Over the period, approximately 2200 tons of process waste, composed primarily of sheared hulls, was produced and stored in a vast silo in the first place, and in canisters stored in pools in subsequent years. Upon shutdown of the facility, AREVA D and D Division in La Hague launched a thorough investigation and characterization of the silos and pools content, which then served as input data for the definition of a legacy waste retrieval and reconditioning program. Basic design was conducted between 2005 and 2007, and was followed by an optimization phase which lead to the definition of a final scenario and budget, 12% under the initial estimates. The scenario planned for the construction of a retrieval and reconditioning cell to be built on top of the storage silo. The retrieved waste would then be rinsed and sorted, so that hulls could subsequently be sent to La Hague high activity compacting facility, while resins and sludge would be cemented within the retrieval cell. Detailed design was conducted successfully from 2008 until 2011, while a thorough research and development program was conducted in order to qualify each stage of the retrieval and reconditioning process, and assist in the elaboration of the final waste package specification. This R and D program was defined and conducted as a response and mitigation of the major project risks identified during the basic design process. Procurement and site preparatory works were then launched in 2011. By the end of 2012, R and D is nearly completed, the retrieval and reconditioning process have been secured, the final waste package specification is being completed, the first equipment for the retrieval cell is being delivered on site, while preparation works are allowing to free up space above and around the silo, to allow for construction which is scheduled to being during the first semester of 2013. The elaboration of the final waste package is still undergoing and expected to be completed by then end of 2013, following some final elements of R and D required to demonstrate the full compatibility of the package with deep geological repository. The HAO legacy waste retrieval project is so far the largest such project entering operational phase on the site of La Hague. It is on schedule, under budget, and in conformity with the delivery requirements set by the French Safety Authority, as well as other stakeholders. This project paves the way for the successful completion of AREVA La Hague other legacy waste retrieval projects, which are currently being drafted or already in active R and D phase. (authors)

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Decommissioning of Active Ventilation Systems in a Nuclear R and D Facility to Prepare for Building Demolition (Whiteshell Laboratories Decommissioning Project, Canada) - 13073

Whiteshell Laboratories (WL) is a nuclear research establishment owned by the Canadian government and operated by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) since the early 1960's. WL is currently under a decommissioning license and the mandate is to remediate the nuclear legacy liabilities in a safe and cost effective manner. The WL Project is the first major nuclear decommissioning project in Canada. A major initiative underway is to decommission and demolish the main R and D Laboratory complex. The Building 300 R and D complex was constructed to accommodate laboratories and offices which were mainly used for research and development associated with organic-cooled reactors, nuclear fuel waste management, reactor safety, advanced fuel cycles and other applications of nuclear energy. Building 300 is a three storey structure of approximately 16,000 m{sup 2}. In order to proceed with building demolition, the contaminated systems inside the building have to be characterized, removed, and the waste managed. There is a significant focus on volume reduction of radioactive waste for the WL project. The active ventilation system is one of the significant contaminated systems in Building 300 that requires decommissioning and removal. The active ventilation system was designed to manage hazardous fumes and radioactivity from ventilation devices (e.g., fume hoods, snorkels and glove boxes) and to prevent the escape of airborne hazardous material outside of the laboratory boundary in the event of an upset condition. The system includes over 200 ventilation devices and 32 active exhaust fan units and high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters. The strategy to remove the ventilation system was to work from the laboratory end back to the fan/filter system. Each ventilation duct was radiologically characterized. Fogging was used to minimize loose contamination. Sections of the duct were removed by various cutting methods and bagged for temporary storage prior to disposition. Maintenance of building heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) balancing was critical to ensure proper airflow and worker safety. Approximately 103 m{sup 3} of equipment and materials were recovered or generated by the project. Low level waste accounted for approximately 37.4 m{sup 3}. Where possible, ducting was free released for metal recycling. Contaminated ducts were compacted into B-1000 containers and stored in a Shielded Modular Above-Ground Storage Facility (SMAGS) on the WL site awaiting final disposition. The project is divided into three significant phases, with Phases 1 and 2 completed. Lessons learned during the execution of Phases 1 and 2 have been incorporated into the current ventilation removal. (authors)

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EC MoDeRn Project: In-situ Demonstration of Innovative Monitoring Technologies for Geological Disposal - 12053

Monitoring to provide information on the evolution of geological disposal presents several challenges. The 4-year, euros M 5, EC MoDeRn Project (http://www.modern-fp7.eu/), which commenced in 2009, addresses monitoring processes, state-of-the-art technology and innovative research and development of monitoring techniques. This paper discusses some of the key drivers for the development of innovative monitoring techniques and provides outlines of the demonstration programmes being conducted within MoDeRn. The aim is to develop these innovative monitoring techniques and to demonstrate them under realistic conditions present in underground laboratories. These demonstration projects, applying a range of different monitoring techniques, are being carried out at underground research facilities in different geological environments at HADES URL in Belgium (plastic clay), Bure in France (indurated clay) and at Grimsel Test Site (granite) in Switzerland. These are either built upon existing infrastructure (EC ESDRED Low pH shotcrete and TEM experiments at Grimsel; and PRACLAY experiment and underground galleries in HADES) or will be attached to infrastructure that is being developed and financed by resources outside of this project (mock-up disposal cell in Bure). At Grimsel Test Site, cross-hole and hole-to-tunnel seismic methods are being employed as a means to monitor induced changes in an artificially saturated bentonite wall confined behind a shotcrete plug. Recognising the limitations for travel-time tomography for monitoring a disposal cell, full waveform inversion techniques are being employed to enhance the capacity to monitor remote from the excavation. At the same Grimsel location, an investigation will be conducted of the potential for using a high frequency wireless (HFW) sensor network embedded within the barrier system; this will include the possibility of providing energy remotely to isolated sensors. At the HADES URL, the monitoring programme will utilise the PRACLAY gallery equipped to simulate a disposal gallery for heat-generating high-level waste evaluating fibre-optic based sensing techniques, including distributed sensing for thermal distribution and long-term reliability in harsh conditions. It also includes the potential to improve the treatment of signals from micro-seismic monitoring to enable enhanced understanding of the evolution around the gallery following its excavation due to ventilation, saturation and heating, and to image a water-bearing concretion layer. HADES URL will also be used to test wireless techniques to transmit monitoring data from the underground to the surface. The main focus of this contribution is to evaluate magneto-inductive data transmission; and to optimise energy usage. At the Bure underground facility in France, monitoring systems have been developed and will be embedded into the steel liner for the mock-up high-level waste disposal tunnel. The aim of this programme is to establish the capacity to conduct integrated monitoring activities inside the disposal cell, on the cell liner and in the near-field and to assess the capability of the monitoring to withstand construction and liner emplacement procedures. These projects, which are supported by focused development and testing of the monitoring systems, will allow the testing of both the effectiveness of these techniques applied to disposal situations and to understand the limits of these monitoring technologies. This approach should also enhance the confidence of key stakeholders in the ability to understand/confirm the changes occurring within a disposal cell. In addition, remote or 'non-intrusive' monitoring technologies are evaluated to provide a means of enhancing understanding of what is occurring in an isolated disposal cell. The projects also test solutions for embedded monitoring systems in challenging (risk of damage) situations. The outputs from this work will lead to improved understanding of these state-of-the-art techniques and allow focused development of those techniques beneficial to future monitoring programmes. It is also planned, as part of the MoDeRn programme of stakeholder engagement to show some of these monitoring demonstrations to lay stakeholders in order to receive their feed-back on the approach taken and their views on the value of this work. This feedback will help improve our understanding of how this work and future work on monitoring can be more effectively communicated. (authors)

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Improving Decommissioning Success using the Tool of Virtual Reality; Increasing Worker Safety and Project Schedule Stability - 17193

operations, especially underwater, is essential. Equally essential is a precise game plan for disassembly which focuses attention on the skilled remote handling operators who must produce the results. Project success is based on clean, efficient cuts and take-aways, prepared paths for waste placement and containment, programmed return paths; and practice, practice, practice on the part of the operators. Recently, our Partner, WAK Ruackbau- und Entsorgungs- GmbH (Decommissioning and Waste Management Company) was tasked with dismantling and decommissioning the Karlsruhe Reprocessing Plant. The most difficult task in this project is the dismantling of the vitrification plant. Waelischmiller was selected to address this high-consequence project. Together, WAK and Waelischmiller determined that development of a virtual reality suite, where management and operators could create a virtual vitrification layout and subsequently map and rehearse their dismantling plan was essential. This approach, using Virtual Reality (VR) as a tool in streamlining operations and rehearsing difficult moves and cuts, will be a game changer for this and future projects. It will be a first-of-a-kind in Germany. The VR suite is contained in a room at the Karlsruhe facility with a large screen, control cabinet, simulation computer, a Waelischmiller Joyarm and Masterarm. To support the dismantling of the vitrification plant, WAK/HWM will conduct interactive feasibility studies for each dismantling step. All movements; cuts, take-aways and vessel segment insertion into transportation and disposal casks will be established, programed and practiced within virtual test suite. This allows savings in cost-intensive and complex construction of test rigs. Operating personnel can be trained in the VR suite, without taking the risk of damaging expensive remote handling equipment.While the operators are working on the operating element, they stand in front of a wide screen. Instead of a real TELBOT{sup R}, a virtual TELBOT{sup R} is moving on the screen in virtual reality. While practicing, the operators cannot damage the arm and the equipment, which is a big advantage. Moreover an interactive feasibility study can be realized without building a real test rig (mock-up). Consequently significant cost-expenses can be reduced. This paper will describe the virtual suite used by the WAK in Karlsruhe and the advantages of this new and innovative approach, which is unique in decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The viewpoint of each (WAK and HWM), and the decisions and benefits realized along the project path will be detailed in the paper. (authors)

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Laboratory testing options for FUSRAP projects - 15462

Remediation projects within the Formerly Used Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) have many options to consider when evaluating their analytical testing needs. Factors that should be considered in determination of a project's analytical testing needs include which parameter results are considered time-critical, the potential savings in reduction of construction-related delays when time-critical samples are analyzed onsite (including screening) instead of offsite, control of data quality for onsite versus offsite data, and the value of additional knowledge gained by programs such as FUSRAP by employing onsite laboratories. The most important factor turned out to be reduction in construction-related delays. We considered development of an optimum combination of onsite lab/offsite lab capability. This depends on: i. Time critical parameters and the methods required; ii. Estimated Cost for onsite lab construction or facility rental, maintenance, labor, chemicals (reagents and standards), and certification (if desired and deemed necessary) iii. Ability, flexibility, and cost of offsite lab sample testing using project-desired TATs and methods that will meet project action levels iv. Willingness of stakeholders, in particular regulators, in accepting some combination of onsite and offsite testing (for example, onsite screening followed by offsite confirmatory testing for certain parameters) Due to the significant costs in construction of an onsite lab and development of sample testing capability and all which that entails, the recommendations made in this paper will aid other FUSRAP projects in finding an acceptable combination of onsite and offsite testing that is acceptable to all stakeholders. (authors)

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Waste Management Processing Projects in the PRC - 16551

EnergySolutions continues to provide waste treatment solutions in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). In 2015 ES had completed installation of systems at two different Nuclear power sites (Haiyang, an AP-1000{sup TM} site and Yangjiang, a CPR1000 site). This paper discusses progress on these two projects, and provides new information regarding the operation of the systems. The Yangjiang project became operational in the fall of 2015 while the Haiyang project will be done is nearly done with commissioning and is waiting for reactor operations. Haiyang Project: In the Shandong Province on China's northeast coast, EnergySolutions, as part of a consortium with China Power Investment (CPI) and Yuanda Environmental Protection Engineering Company (a PRC state-owned company), has designed and constructed the site's Site Rad Waste Treatment Facility (SRTF). The SRTF provides solid waste processing services for up to 8 AP-1000s{sup TM}. The SRTF performs the following functions: 1. Five year storage for HICs containing spent resin and filters from the nuclear power plants' waste liquid systems (WLS); 2. Sorting and Compaction System for solid waste generated from Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) operations. This system implements: a) Real time radiography to screen 200 liter waste drums for prohibited items, b) Pre-compaction, c) High Resolution Gamma Spectrophotometry (HRGS) for waste characterization, d) Supercompaction, e) Solidification of compacted drums inside overpack drums which are filled with 60 MPa compressive strength grout, and f) Automatic drum lidding which crimps the drum lid to the drum body. 3. Laundry services for NPP anti-contamination clothing. 4. At the nuclear islands, EnergySolutions is providing mobile liquid waste processing systems that utilize EnergySolutions Advanced Liquid Processing System ALPS{sup TM}/Advanced Injection Method System AIM{sup TM} processing systems to supplement the NPP's WLS system when radionuclide concentrations exceed release criteria. The spent resins and filters from the nuclear power plants are placed in EnergySolutions supplied HICs, dewatered using EnergySolutions Self Engaging Dewatering System (SEDS{sup TM}), and then placed in EnergySolutions 8-120B Type B cask for the transport of the HIC between the NPP and the SRTF and, ultimately, to a disposal site once it is ready for operations Yangjiang Project: EnergySolutions is providing liquid waste treatment system (TEU) and solid waste treatment system (TES) for Yangjiang units 3 and 4 for the China Nuclear Power Engineering Company (CNPEC). The Yangjiang site is located approximately 300 kilometers west of Hong Kong. The TEU system processes floor drain, chemical drain, and process drain tanks liquids to achieve a release concentration less than 37 Bq/l. The TES system receives spent resin and filters into HIC containers which are dewatered and subsequently transported to the Yangjiang sites QT building where they are stored for a period of up to 5 years or until a disposal site are available. TEU (Liquid waste treatment) consists of the following unit operations: - ALPS{sup TM}/AIM{sup TM} system, which includes two separate 8 vessel water treatment systems that consist of granular activated carbon (GAC), cation, anion ion and mixed bed media ion exchange (IX) columns; and: - A reverse osmosis system for final polishing, - TES (solid waste system), - SEDS (Self Engaging Dewatering System), - Shielding for the loading and storage of HICs, - Shielded transport container for the transfer of HIC to the QT building for storage, - Shielded transfer bell for the transport of spent filters from the NPP operating area to HIC. (authors)

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Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility Stabilization and Ventilation Project-18121

Department of Energy contractor CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company (CH2M) is responsible for the safe and compliant operation of the Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility (WESF), a nuclear materials storage facility at Hanford containing 1,936 highly radioactive capsules containing cesium and strontium. The capsules are currently stored under approximately 4 m (13 ft) of water. The water shields workers from radiation and helps cool the capsules. WESF is a large, concrete structure nominally 48 m (160 ft) long, 30 m (98 ft) wide and 12 m (40 ft) high with the pool cells being approximately 4 m (13 ft) below grade level. It is a robust facility with walls ranging from 0.3 m to 1 m (1 ft to 3 ft) thick. While the capsules are currently in a safe configuration, WESF is an aging facility, and DOE and CH2M are modifying the facility to ensure continued safe and compliant operations and to support the eventual transfer of capsules to dry storage. Dry storage would eliminate the possibility of a release of radioactive material in the unlikely event of a major earthquake that might result in loss of pool storage water and overheating and breach of one or more capsules. The project was divided into two major deliverables: 1) Ventilation: replacement of the existing ventilation system which included a below-grade high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter pit with an above grade HEPA filter skid and new fans and ducting. 2) Stabilization: grouting deactivated facility hot cells and other void spaces to the maximum extent practical to reduce material at risk from legacy contamination. The aging ventilation system relied on HEPA filters that exceeded their operational life. Due to the high levels of radionuclide contamination, replacing the filters was impractical and highly hazardous. CH2M installed a new ventilation system to provide safe and compliant ventilation for future operations. The project used an existing, unused ventilation skid that was designed for another project. Repurposing the unused skid presented additional technical challenges to modify the system for the project specific requirements. The new system is above ground, easier to maintain and is built to current standards. New connections inside the facility were installed to allow the new ventilation to operate effectively. The stabilization project is unique in that core drilling and grouting was performed in an operating Hazard Category 2 nuclear facility, which brought forth safety basis and environmental regulatory challenges. The hot cells were isolated from all existing support utilities including electrical, process chemicals, manipulator ports, instrument air, etc. to seal the hot cells and prevent highly contaminated supernate or grout from leaking into adjacent galleries. A high flow grout was used to maximize the distance between injection ports. (authors)

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Port Hope Area Initiative - Port Granby Project: Effectiveness of the Radiation Protection Program - 18595

The Port Granby Project is large remediation project currently underway. It is approximately 50% complete. A comprehensive and effective radiation protection program has been developed and implemented for the Port Granby Project. The potential radiation hazards associated with this project include: external (gamma) radiation, radon, inhalation, contamination and ingestion. The radiation protection program is highly effective and has succeeded in managing the significant radiation hazards associated with this remediation project. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Leveraging 3D CAD and Virtual Reality in Design of the Calcine Disposition Project - 20512

Fluor Idaho's Calcine Disposition Project (CDP) is leveraging the power of three-dimensional (3D) visualization, light detection and ranging (Lidar), and virtual reality to improve designs and worker safety. With the use of computer-aided design (CAD) modeling software, the CDP has created 3D models of the facility and systems to aid in the design, development, and operation of its retrieval and transfer system. This by itself is nothing new and has been done in industry for years. The CDP project however is taking this a few steps farther with the use of Lidar and virtual reality software. The CRP is tasked with removing a radioactive granular material from stainless steel bins located in concrete vaults that were constructed in the late 1950's and early 1960's. While construction drawings are available, it is not certain that the drawings are as-built or how accurate they truly are. Part of the project requires precise placement of equipment on to bins around multiple pipe, electrical lines, and bin stiffeners. Relying solely on the existing drawings and models created from these drawings is highly risky and prone to failure. The first step to determine the precise location and orientation of all obstructions in the vault the project will use a Lidar system to scan the vault structure and precisely locate all vault and bin components. Once this information is obtained, the data will be integrated into the CAD model. The model will then be verified, and a true as-built model developed. Precise component location, size, and orientation will be used for final design and placement of retrieval components. The second step will be to take the verified 3D model and scan data and import it into virtual reality software creating a virtual world. While some work on the project requires all work to be completed remotely due to high radiation fields, some areas have low enough radiation levels that personnel can enter and perform work. With the use of a virtual reality headset, operators and technicians will be able to enter our virtual world and become familiar with the surroundings and perform work prior to ever entering the radiation environment. This training is expected to pay dividends by improving worker efficiency, reducing errors, and improving confidence that the work can be performed as expected. It will play a key aspect in as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) principles. An additional aspect in using the Lidar scans and virtual environment, is that it will give engineers and managers an opportunity to revisit the facility, especially radiation areas, at any time to obtain design information and measurements that may be costly or impossible to obtain once the facility transitions into radiation operations. (authors)

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Exploring Professor Motivations and Implementations of a Real-World Problem-Solving Project: A Case Study in Preparing Students for the Emerging Building Science Industry: Preprint

Engineering education literature offers a variety of theoretical and conceptual frameworks for project-based learning. This study explores the implementation of real-world problem-solving projects in engineering education. The research team analyzed the motivations and methods behind professors' adoption of such projects through exploratory qualitative interviews with seven professor participants who integrated a nation-wide student competition into their courses. We analyzed the resulting data using a constructivist grounded theory approach to identify key themes of professor practices. Findings reveal that the real-world aspect of the projects and alignment with values and research interests were primary motivators for implementation. While implementation methods varied significantly based on context (i.e., university setting, course type), we found that these projects could be effectively integrated into various classroom settings. The findings support the recommendation for non-academic institutions to develop and manage competitions that can be integrated into classrooms and which offer a point of engagement that is available to professors from a wide range of disciplines.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High‐Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

Abstract The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal‐length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm‐side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm‐side shift with decreased variability. Using “business‐as‐usual” scenario, 5‐day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Construction of energy-stable projection-based reduced order models

Our paper aims to unify and extend several approaches for building stable projection-based reduced order models (ROMs) using the energy method and the concept of “energy-stability”. Attention is focused on linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. First, an approach for building energy stable Galerkin ROMs for linear hyperbolic or incompletely parabolic systems of partial differential equations (PDEs) using continuous projection is proposed. The key idea is to apply to the system a transformation induced by the Lyapunov function for the system, and to build the ROM in the transformed variables. The result of this procedure will be a ROM that is energy-stable for any choice of reduced basis. It is shown that, for many PDE systems, the desired transformation is induced by a special inner product, termed the “symmetry inner product”. Next, attention is turned to building energy-stable ROMs via discrete projection. A discrete counterpart of the continuous symmetry inner product, termed the “Lyapunov inner product”, is derived. Moreover, it is shown that the Lyapunov inner product can be computed in a black-box fashion for a stable LTI system ari sing from the discretization of a system of PDEs in space. Projection in this inner product guarantees a ROM that is energy-stable, again for any choice of reduced basis. Connections between the Lyapunov inner product and the inner product induced by the balanced truncation algorithm are made. We also made comparisons between the symmetry inner product and the Lyapunov inner product. Performance of ROMs constructed using these inner products is evaluated on several benchmark test cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection

This study introduces a method to systematically project retailed gasoline prices in China and provides projection results. Based on oil taxation and pricing mechanisms in China, this study establishes the statistical relationship between the retailed gasoline prices in China and international crude oil prices using error correction models (ECM), time-series models. Detailed comparison among asymmetric ECM, threshold ECM, and threshold asymmetric ECM are provided. By adopting the ECMs, the study projects the retailed gasoline prices from 2019 to 2050 based on the international crude oil prices from the Annual Energy Outlook provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The results show that the asymmetric responsiveness and the threshold effect exist under current Chinese oil pricing policy with a lag of one month or even shorter in gasoline price adjustment. Moreover, the analysis informs one that, in the short-run, the retailed gasoline prices in China are more sensitive to international crude oil price increases; while in the long-run, the retailed gasoline prices are more sensitive to international crude oil price decreases. Compared with the national average gasoline price in China of 6.04 CNY/Liter in 2017, the national average gasoline price in China is projected to be about 7.64 CNY/Liter (2017 dollar) by 2050.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Application of emerging monitoring techniques at the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project

The Illinois Basin – Decatur Project is a large-scale carbon capture and storage demonstration project located in Decatur, Illinois, USA. In this project, one million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) was captured from an ethanol production facility and successfully injected into a deep saline reservoir over a period of three years. The scale of this project presented an opportunity to explore emerging technologies for effective long-term monitoring of the carbon capture and storage site. This research documents the application of three emerging monitoring techniques: (1) a prototype “open-path” sensor, a method of continuously monitoring atmospheric CO 2 by applying tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy to provide a warning system for personnel safety along pipelines and at wellheads; (2) the Greenhouse Gas Laser Imaging Tomography Experiment (GreenLITE), an automated system for measuring two-dimensional spatial distribution of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations; and (3) periodic aerial imagery, a method of documenting surface-vegetation dynamics to detect vegetative responses to CO 2 leaks. The objective of this work was to assess the advantages and limitations of these monitoring techniques and quantify their reliability over an extended deployment at an active industrial site. These results will aid in determining viability of long-term monitoring on a commercial scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Eulerian projection method for quasi-static elastoplasticity

A well-established numerical approach to solve the Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible fluids is Chorin's projection method, whereby the fluid velocity is explicitly updated, and then an elliptic problem for the pressure is solved, which is used to orthogonally project the velocity field to maintain the incompressibility constraint. In this paper, we develop a mathematical correspondence between Newtonian fluids in the incompressible limit and hypo-elastoplastic solids in the slow, quasi-static limit. Using this correspondence, we formulate a new fixed-grid, Eulerian numerical method for simulating quasi-static hypo-elastoplastic solids, whereby the stress is explicitly updated, and then an elliptic problem for the velocity is solved, which is used to orthogonally project the stress to maintain the quasi-staticity constraint. We develop a finite-difference implementation of the method and apply it to an elasto-viscoplastic model of a bulk metallic glass based on the shear transformation zone theory. We show that in a two-dimensional plane strain simple shear simulation, the method is in quantitative agreement with an explicit method. Like the fluid projection method, it is efficient and numerically robust, making it practical for a wide variety of applications. We also demonstrate that the method can be extended to simulate objects with evolving boundaries. Here, we highlight a number of correspondences between incompressible fluid mechanics and quasi-static elastoplasticity, creating possibilities for translating other numerical methods between the two classes of physical problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A reduced-order model for nonlinear radiative transfer problems based on moment equations and POD-Petrov-Galerkin projection of the normalized Boltzmann transport equation

A data-driven projection-based reduced-order model (ROM) for nonlinear thermal radiative transfer (TRT) problems is presented. The TRT ROM is formulated by (i) a hierarchy of low-order quasidiffusion (aka variable Eddington factor) equations for moments of the radiation intensity and (ii) the normalized Boltzmann transport equation (BTE). The multilevel system of moment equations is derived by projection of the BTE onto a sequence of subspaces which represent elements of the phase space of the problem. Exact closure for the moment equations is provided by the Eddington tensor. A Petrov-Galerkin (PG) projection of the normalized BTE is formulated using a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) basis representing the normalized radiation intensity over the whole phase space and time. The Eddington tensor linearly depends on the solution of the normalized BTE. By linear superposition of the POD basis functions, a low-rank expansion of the Eddington tensor is constructed with coefficients defined by the PG projected normalized BTE. The material energy balance (MEB) equation is coupled with the effective gray low-order equations which exist on the same dimensional scale as the MEB equation. The resulting TRT ROM is structure and asymptotic preserving. A detailed analysis of the ROM is performed on the classical Fleck-Cummings (F-C) TRT multigroup test problem in 2D geometry. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the ROM's effectiveness in the simulation of radiation wave phenomena. Importantly, the ROM is shown to produce solutions with sufficiently high accuracy while using low-rank approximation of the normalized BTE solution. Essential physical characteristics of supersonic radiation wave are preserved in the ROM solutions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗