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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

Large furlable antenna study

The parametric study of the performance of large furlable antennas is described and the availability of various size antennas is discussed. Three types of unfurlable reflector designs are considered: the wrapped rib, the polyconic, and the maypole. On the basis of these approaches, a space shuttle launch capability, and state-of-the-art materials, it is possible to design unfurlable reflectors as large as 130 feet (40 meters) in diameter to operate at 10 GHz and 600 feet (183 meters) in diameter at 0.5 GHz. These figures can be increased if very low thermal coefficient of expansion materials can be developed over the next 2-5 years. It is recommended that a special effort be made to develop light weight materials that would provide nearly zero thermal coefficient of expansion and good thermal conductivity within the next 10 years. A conservative prediction of the kinds of unfurlable spacecraft antennas that will be available by 1985 with orbital performance predicted on the basis of test data and with developed manufacturing processes is summarized.

Campbell, G. K. C.↗

Solid Modeling of Crew Exploration Vehicle Structure Concepts for Mass Optimization

Parametric solid and surface models of the crew exploration vehicle (CEV) command module (CM) structure concepts are developed for rapid finite element analyses, structural sizing and estimation of optimal structural mass. The effects of the structural configuration and critical design parameters on the stress distribution are visualized, examined to arrive at an efficient design. The CM structural components consisted of the outer heat shield, inner pressurized crew cabin, ring bulkhead and spars. For this study only the internal cabin pressure load case is considered. Component stress, deflection, margins of safety and mass are used as design goodness criteria. The design scenario is explored by changing the component thickness parameters and materials until an acceptable design is achieved. Aluminum alloy, titanium alloy and an advanced composite material properties are considered for the stress analysis and the results are compared as a part of lessons learned and to build up a structural component sizing knowledge base for the future CEV technology support. This independent structural analysis and the design scenario based optimization process may also facilitate better CM structural definition and rapid prototyping.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data

Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data are investigated. Developments with regard to sensors for Earth observation are moving in the direction of providing much higher dimensional multispectral imagery than is now possible. In analyzing such high dimensional data, processing time becomes an important factor. With large increases in dimensionality and the number of classes, processing time will increase significantly. To address this problem, a multistage classification scheme is proposed which reduces the processing time substantially by eliminating unlikely classes from further consideration at each stage. Several truncation criteria are developed and the relationship between thresholds and the error caused by the truncation is investigated. Next an approach to feature extraction for classification is proposed based directly on the decision boundaries. It is shown that all the features needed for classification can be extracted from decision boundaries. A characteristic of the proposed method arises by noting that only a portion of the decision boundary is effective in discriminating between classes, and the concept of the effective decision boundary is introduced. The proposed feature extraction algorithm has several desirable properties: it predicts the minimum number of features necessary to achieve the same classification accuracy as in the original space for a given pattern recognition problem; and it finds the necessary feature vectors. The proposed algorithm does not deteriorate under the circumstances of equal means or equal covariances as some previous algorithms do. In addition, the decision boundary feature extraction algorithm can be used both for parametric and non-parametric classifiers. Finally, some problems encountered in analyzing high dimensional data are studied and possible solutions are proposed. First, the increased importance of the second order statistics in analyzing high dimensional data is recognized. By investigating the characteristics of high dimensional data, the reason why the second order statistics must be taken into account in high dimensional data is suggested. Recognizing the importance of the second order statistics, there is a need to represent the second order statistics. A method to visualize statistics using a color code is proposed. By representing statistics using color coding, one can easily extract and compare the first and the second statistics.

Lee, Chulhee↗

Selective sulfur removal from semi-dry flue gas desulfurization coal fly ash for concrete and carbon dioxide capture applications

High-sulfur mixed fly ash residues from semi-dry flue gas desulfurization units in coal-fired power plants are unsuitable for use as supplementary cementitious material (SCM) for concrete production or carbon dioxide utilization. In this work, we explore the potential for upcycling a representative spray dry absorber ash (10.44 wt% SO 3 ) into concrete-SCM by selective sulfur removal via weak acid dissolution while simultaneously exploring the possibility for CO 2 capture. Towards this effort, parametric studies varying liquid-to-solid ratio, acidity, and CO 2 pressure were conducted in a batch reactor to establish the sulfur removal characteristics in de-ionized water, nitric acid, and carbonic acid, respectively. The dissolution studies show that the leaching of sulfur from calcium sulfite hemihydrate, which is the predominant S phase, is rapid and achieves a concentration plateau within 5 min, and subsequently, appears to be controlled by the primary mineral solubility. Here, preferential S removal was sufficient to meet SCM standards (e.g., 5.0 wt% as per ASTM C618) using all three washing solutions with 0.62–0.72 selectivity (S^), defined as the molar ratio of S to Ca in the leachate, for a raw fly ash with bulk S^ = 0.3. Acid dissolution with 1.43 meq/g of ash or under 5 atm CO 2 retained > 18 wt% CaO and other Si-, Al-rich phases in the fly ash. Based on the experimental findings, two sulfur removal schemes were suggested for either integration with CO 2 capture and utilization processes using flue gas or to produce fly ash for use as a SCM.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Constitutive Model Development for Aging Polymer Encapsulants (ASC P&EM FY2021 L2 Milestone 7836)

This SAND report fulfills the completion requirements for the ASC Physics and Engineering Modeling Level 2 Milestone 7836 during Fiscal Year 2021. The Sandia Simplified potential energy clock (SPEC) non-linear viscoelastic constitutive model was developed to predict a whole host of polymer glass physical behaviors in order to provide a tool to assess the effects of stress on these materials over their lifecycle. Polymer glasses are used extensively in applications such as electronics packaging, where encapsulants and adhesives can be critical to device performance. In this work, the focus is on assessing the performance of the model in predicting material evolution associated with long-term physical aging, an area that the model has not been fully vetted in. These predictions are key to utilizing models to help demonstrate electronics packaging component reliability over decades long service lives, a task that is very costly and time consuming to execute experimentally. The initiating hypothesis for the work was that a model calibration process can be defined that enables confidence in physical aging predictions under ND relevant environments and timescales without sacrificing other predictive capabilities. To test the hypothesis, an extensive suite of calibration and aging data was assembled from a combination of prior work and collaborating projects (Aging and Lifetimes as well as the DoD Joint Munitions Program) for two mission relevant epoxy encapsulants, 828DGEBA/DEA and 828DGEBA/T403. Multiple model calibration processes were developed and evaluated against the entire set of data for each material. A qualitative assessment of each calibration's ability to predict the wide range of aging responses was key to ranking the calibrations against each other. During this evaluation, predictions that were identified as non-physical, i.e., demonstrated something that was qualitatively different than known material behavior, were heavily weighted against the calibration performance. Thus, unphysical predictions for one aspect of aging response could generate a lower overall rating for a calibration process even if that process generated better quantitative predictions for another aspect of aging response. This insurance that all predictions are qualitatively correct is important to the overall aim of utilizing the model to predict residual stress evolution, which will depend on the interplay amongst the different material aging responses. The DSC-focused calibration procedure generated the best all-around aging predictions for both materials, demonstrating material models that can qualitatively predict the whole host of different physical aging responses that have been measured. This step forward in predictive capability comes from an unanticipated source, utilization of calorimetry measurements to specify model parameters. The DSC-focused calibration technique performed better than compression-focused techniques that more heavily weigh measurements more closely related to the structural responses to be predicted. Indeed, the DSC-focused calibration procedure was only possible due to recent incorporation of the enthalpy and heat capacity features into SPEC that was newly verified during this L2 milestone. Fundamentally similar aspects of the two material model calibrations as well as parametric studies to assess sensitives of the aging predictions are discussed within the report. A perspective on the next steps to the overall goal of residual stress evolution predictions under stockpile conditions closes the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Parametric dependencies of resonant layer responses across linear, two-fluid, drift-MHD regimes

Non-axisymmetric magnetic fields arising in a tokamak either by external or internal perturbations can induce complex non-ideal MHD responses in their resonant surfaces while remaining ideally evolved elsewhere. This layer response can be characterized in a linear regime by a single parameter called the inner-layer Delta, which enables outer-layer matching and the prediction of torque balance to non-linear island regimes. Here, we follow strictly one of the most comprehensive analytic treatments including two-fluid and drift MHD effects and keep the fidelity of the formulation by incorporating the numerical method based on the Riccati transformation when quantifying the inner-layer Delta. The proposed scheme reproduces not only the predicted responses in essentially all asymptotic regimes but also with continuous transitions as well as improved accuracies. In particular, the Delta variations across the inertial regimes with viscous or semi-collisional effects have been further resolved, in comparison with additional analytic solutions. The results imply greater shielding of the electromagnetic torque at the layer than what would be expected by earlier work when the viscous or semi-collisional effects can compete against the inertial effects, and also due to the intermediate regulation by kinetic Alfven wave resonances as rotation slows down. These are important features that can alter the nonaxisymmetric plasma responses including the field penetration by external fields or island seeding process in rotating tokamak plasmas.

MHD instability↗

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗

Parametric dependencies of resonant layer responses across linear, two-fluid, drift-MHD regimes

Non-axisymmetric magnetic fields arising in a tokamak either by external or internal perturbations can induce complex non-ideal MHD responses in their resonant surfaces while remaining ideally evolved elsewhere. This layer response can be characterized in a linear regime by a single parameter called the inner-layer Δ, which enables outer-layer matching and the prediction of torque balance to non-linear island regimes. In this work, we follow strictly one of the most comprehensive analytic treatments including two-fluid and drift MHD effects and keep the fidelity of the formulation by incorporating the numerical method based on the Riccati transformation when quantifying the inner-layer Δ. The proposed scheme reproduces not only the predicted responses in essentially all asymptotic regimes but also with continuous transitions as well as improved accuracies. In particular, the Δ variations across the inertial regimes with viscous or semi-collisional effects have been further resolved, in comparison with additional analytic solutions. The results imply greater shielding of the electromagnetic torque at the layer than what would be expected by earlier work when the viscous or semi-collisional effects can compete against the inertial effects, and also due to the intermediate regulation by kinetic Alfvén wave resonances as rotation slows down. These are important features that can alter the non-axisymmetric plasma responses including the field penetration by external fields or island seeding process in rotating tokamak plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Stereo Imaging Velocimetry of Mixing Driven by Buoyancy Induced Flow Fields

Mixing of two fluids generated by steady and particularly g-jitter acceleration is fundamental towards the understanding of transport phenomena in a microgravity environment. We propose to carry out flight and ground-based experiments to quantify flow fields due to g-jitter type of accelerations using Stereo Imaging Velocimetry (SIV), and measure the concentration field using laser fluorescence. The understanding of the effects of g-jitter on transport phenomena is of great practical interest to the microgravity community and impacts the design of experiments for the Space Shuttle as well as the International Space Station. The aim of our proposed research is to provide quantitative data to the community on the effects of g-jitter on flow fields due to mixing induced by buoyancy forces. The fundamental phenomenon of mixing occurs in a broad range of materials processing encompassing the growth of opto-electronic materials and semiconductors, (by directional freezing and physical vapor transport), to solution and protein crystal growth. In materials processing of these systems, crystal homogeneity, which is affected by the solutal field distribution, is one of the major issues. The understanding of fluid mixing driven by buoyancy forces, besides its importance as a topic in fundamental science, can contribute towards the understanding of how solutal fields behave under various body forces. The body forces of interest are steady acceleration and g-jitter acceleration as in a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. Since control of the body force is important, the flight experiment will be carried out on a tunable microgravity vibration isolation mount, which will permit us to precisely input the desired forcing function to simulate a range of body forces. To that end, we propose to design a flight experiment that can only be carried out under microgravity conditions to fully exploit the effects of various body forces on fluid mixing. Recent flight experiments, by the P.I. through collaboration with the Canadian Space Agency (STS-85, August 1997), aimed at determining the stability of the interface between two miscible liquids inside an enclosure show that a long liquid column (5 cm) under microgravity isolation conditions can be stable, i.e. the interface remains sharp and vertical over a short time scale; thus transport occurs by molecular mass diffusion. On the other hand, when the two liquids were excited from a controlled vibration source (Microgravity Vibration Isolation Mount) two to four mode large amplitude quasi-stationary waves were observed. The data was limited to CCD recording of the dynamics of the interface between the two fluids. We propose to carry out flight experiments to quantify the dynamics of the flow field using Stereo Imaging Velocimetry and measure the concentration field using laser fluorescence. The results will serve as a basis to understand effects of g-jitter on transport phenomena, in this case mass diffusion. As the measurement of the kinematics of the flow field will shed light on the instability mechanism. The research will allow measurement of the flow field in microgravity environment to prove two hypotheses: (1) Maxwell's hypothesis: finite convection always exists in diffusing systems, and (2) Quasi-stationary waves inside a bounded enclosure in a microgravity environment is generated by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability; resonance of the interface which produces incipient mixing is due to Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The first hypothesis can be used as a benchmark experiment to illustrate diffusive mixing. The second hypothesis will lead to the understanding of g-jitter effects on buoyancy driven flow fields which occur in many situations involving materials processing, and other basic fluid physics phenomena. In addition, the second hypothesis will also provide insight in how Rayleigh-Taylor and Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities propagate concentration fronts during mixing. Measurement of the flow field using SIV is important because it is the flow field which causes instability at the interface between the two fluids. Mixing driven by buoyancy induced flow fields will be addressed both experimentally and computationally. The experimental effort will address the kinematics of mixing: stretching, transport and chaos. Quantification of the mechanisms of mixing will consists of measuring the flow field using the SIV system at Glenn and capturing the dynamics of the interface, to measure mass transport, using a CCD camera. These experiments will be carried out within the framework of Earth's gravity and g-jitter microgravity acceleration as in a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. The g-jitter will be induced and controlled using a tunable vibration isolation platform to isolate against vibration as well as input periodic and random vibration to the system. The parametric range of the microgravity experiment will be extended from the experiments on STS-85 to investigate higher mode quasi-stationary waves (8 to 12), as well as resonance regions which leads to chaos and turbulence. Ground-based experiments will focus on effects of vibration on stably stratified fluid layers in order to scale for possible scenarios in a microgravity environment. These vibrations will be subjected perpendicular to the concentration field on the ground since the parallel case can only be carried out in a microgravity environment. The concept of dynamical similarity will be applied to tune the experiments as closely as possible to a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. The computational effort will take advantage of the Computational Laboratory at Glenn to corroborate the experimental findings with predictions of the dynamics of the flow field using the codes FLUENT (finite difference based) and FIDAP (finite element based). We will investigate two important cases, single-fluid model to address dilute systems with negligible jump in viscosity and the more general two-fluid model which accounts for finite jump in viscosity. Apart from its microgravity relevance, this experiment is well suited to study dynamics in nonlinear systems.

Duval, W. M. B.↗

Machine Learning a Simple Interpretable Short-Range Potential for Silica

A wide array of models, spanning from computationally expensive ab initio methods to a spectrum of force-field approaches, have been developed and employed to probe silica polymorphs and understand growth processes and atomic-level dynamical transitions in silica. However, the quest for a model capable of making accurate predictions with high computational efficiency for various silica polymorphs is still ongoing. Recent developments in short-range machine-learned models, such as GAP and NNPScan, have shown promise in providing reasonable descriptions of silica, but their computational cost remains high compared to force fields such as BKS which are based on simple interpretable functional forms. Here, in this study, we build on the recent success of our reinforcement learning (RL) workflow to derive a new set of optimal parameters for a promising short-range BKS-based model proposed by Soules. We use RL to navigate the eight-dimensional parameter space of the Soules potential using an experimental training data set that includes both local and global structural features from approximately 21 experimentally realized silica polymorphs, including high density phases and porous zeolites. We compare the performance of our machine-learned ML-Soules model with other high quality models including our recent machine-learned parametrization of BKS (ML-BKS), a machine-learned potential (GAP), as well as predictions of ab initio calculations with the highly fidelity SCAN functional. The ML-Soules accurately captures the relative energetic ordering of various polymorphs as well as their structural features at a significantly reduced computational expense. The ML-Soules model also reasonably captures the structure, density, and elastic constants of quartz, as well as metastable silica polymorphs. We further discuss the limitations of the Soules functional form and propose potential enhancements, including the incorporation of additional three-body terms and/or the utilization of different short-ranged functional forms to achieve greater accuracy for both global and local features in the modeling of silica while retaining low computational cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Architectures and random properties of symplectic quantum circuits

Parametrized and random unitary (or orthogonal) n-qubit circuits play a central role in quantum information. As such, one could naturally assume that circuits implementing symplectic transformations would attract similar attention. However, this is not the case, as $\mathbb{SP}(d/2)$—the group of d × d unitary symplectic matrices—has thus far been overlooked. In this work, we aim at starting to fill this gap. We begin by presenting a universal set of generators $\mathcal{G}$ for the symplectic algebra $\mathfrak{sp}(d/2)$, consisting of one- and two-qubit Pauli operators acting on neighboring sites in a one-dimensional lattice. Here, we uncover two critical differences between such set, and equivalent ones for unitary and orthogonal circuits. Namely, we find that the operators in $\mathcal{G}$ cannot generate arbitrary local symplectic unitaries and that they are not translationally invariant. We then review the Schur–Weyl duality between the symplectic group and the Brauer algebra, and use tools from Weingarten calculus to prove that Pauli measurements at the output of Haar random symplectic circuits can converge to Gaussian processes. As a by-product, such analysis provides us with concentration bounds for Pauli measurements in circuits that form t-designs over $\mathbb{SP}(d/2)$. To finish, we present tensor-network tools to analyze shallow random symplectic circuits, and we use these to numerically show that computational-basis measurements anti-concentrate at logarithmic depth.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Effects of wave damping and finite perpendicular scale on three-dimensional Alfvén wave parametric decay in low-beta plasmas

Shear Alfvén wave parametric decay instability (PDI) provides a potential path toward significant wave dissipation and plasma heating. However, fundamental questions regarding how PDI is excited in a realistic three-dimensional (3D) open system and how the finite perpendicular wave scale—as found in both laboratory and space plasmas—affects the excitation remain poorly understood. Here, we present the first 3D, open-boundary, hybrid kinetic-fluid simulations of kinetic Alfvén wave PDI in low-beta plasmas. Key findings are that the PDI excitation is strongly limited by the wave damping present, including electron–ion collisional damping (represented by a constant resistivity) and geometrical attenuation associated with the finite-scale Alfvén wave, and ion Landau damping of the child acoustic wave. The perpendicular wave scale alone, however, plays no discernible role: waves of different perpendicular scales exhibit similar instability excitation as long as the magnitude of the parallel ponderomotive force remains unchanged. These findings are corroborated by theoretical analysis and estimates. This new understanding of 3D kinetic Alfvén wave PDI physics is essential for laboratory study of the basic plasma process and may also aid future evaluation of the relevance/role of PDI in low-beta space plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Robustness of cosmic birefringence measurement against Galactic foreground emission and instrumental systematics

The polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) can be used to search for parity-violating processes like that predicted by a Chern-Simons coupling to a light pseudoscalar field. Such an interaction rotates E modes into E modes in the observed CMB signal through an effect known as cosmic birefringence. Even though isotropic birefringence can be confused with the rotation produced by a miscalibration of the detectors' polarization angles, the degeneracy between both effects is broken when Galactic foreground emission is used as a calibrator. Here, in this work, we use realistic simulations of the High-Frequency Instrument of the Planck mission to test the impact that Galactic foreground emission and instrumental systematics have on the recent birefringence measurements obtained through this technique. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the methodology against the miscalibration of polarization angles and other systematic effects, like intensity-to-polarization leakage, beam leakage, or cross-polarization effects. However, our estimator is sensitive to the EB correlation of polarized foreground emission. Here we propose to correct the bias induced by dust EB by modeling the foreground signal with templates produced in Bayesian component-separation analyses that fit parametric models to CMB data. Acknowledging the limitations of currently available dust templates like that of the Commander sky model, high-precision CMB data and a characterization of dust beyond the modified blackbody paradigm are needed to obtain a definitive measurement of cosmic birefringence in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a New Data Tool for Computing Launch and Landing Availability with Respect to Surface Weather

The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has a long history of expertise in the modeling and computation of statistical launch availabilities with respect to weather conditions. Their existing data analysis product, the Atmospheric Parametric Risk Assessment (APRA) tool, computes launch availability given an input set of vehicle hardware and/or operational weather constraints by calculating the climatological probability of exceeding the specified constraint limits, APRA has been used extensively to provide the Space Shuttle program the ability to estimate impacts that various proposed design modifications would have to overall launch availability. The model accounts for both seasonal and diurnal variability at a single geographic location and provides output probabilities for a single arbitrary launch attempt. Recently, the Shuttle program has shown interest in having additional capabilities added to the APRA model, including analysis of humidity parameters, inclusion of landing site weather to produce landing availability, and concurrent analysis of multiple sites, to assist in operational landing site selection. In addition, the Constellation program has also expressed interest in the APRA tool, and has requested several additional capabilities to address some Constellation-specific issues, both in the specification and verification of design requirements and in the development of operations concepts. The combined scope of the requested capability enhancements suggests an evolution of the model beyond a simple revision process. Development has begun for a new data analysis tool that will satisfy the requests of both programs. This new tool, Probabilities of Atmospheric Conditions and Environmental Risk (PACER), will provide greater flexibility and significantly enhanced functionality compared to the currently existing tool.

Burns, K. Lee↗

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗

Trajectory Optimization: OTIS 4

The latest release of the Optimal Trajectories by Implicit Simulation (OTIS4) allows users to simulate and optimize aerospace vehicle trajectories. With OTIS4, one can seamlessly generate optimal trajectories and parametric vehicle designs simultaneously. New features also allow OTIS4 to solve non-aerospace continuous time optimal control problems. The inputs and outputs of OTIS4 have been updated extensively from previous versions. Inputs now make use of objectoriented constructs, including one called a metastring. Metastrings use a greatly improved calculator and common nomenclature to reduce the user s workload. They allow for more flexibility in specifying vehicle physical models, boundary conditions, and path constraints. The OTIS4 calculator supports common mathematical functions, Boolean operations, and conditional statements. This allows users to define their own variables for use as outputs, constraints, or objective functions. The user-defined outputs can directly interface with other programs, such as spreadsheets, plotting packages, and visualization programs. Internally, OTIS4 has more explicit and implicit integration procedures, including high-order collocation methods, the pseudo-spectral method, and several variations of multiple shooting. Users may switch easily between the various methods. Several unique numerical techniques such as automated variable scaling and implicit integration grid refinement, support the integration methods. OTIS4 is also significantly more user friendly than previous versions. The installation process is nearly identical on various platforms, including Microsoft Windows, Apple OS X, and Linux operating systems. Cross-platform scripts also help make the execution of OTIS and post-processing of data easier. OTIS4 is supplied free by NASA and is subject to ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) restrictions. Users must have a Fortran compiler, and a Python interpreter is highly recommended.

Riehl, John P.↗

Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment: Flow Boiling in a Rectangular Channel with Subcooled Inlet Conditions in Microgravity

Two-phase thermal management subsystems that take advantage of both the sensible and latent heat of a working fluid can potentially yield significant enhancements in overall performance by adopting heat transfer processes that are based on phase transition like boiling and condensation. Performance of terrestrial two-phase flow systems may be predictable because the hydrodynamic and body forces are understood, however, in microgravity, which is predominant during planetary space travel, forces that are masked by the strong body force on Earth (gravitational or buoyancy force) reappear with different magnitude and influence. The need arose for a facility that provides for two-phase flow with phase transition testing in microgravity. The Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment (FBCE) is a facility that was launched to the International Space Station in August of 2021 and is in operation since February of 2022. This facility enables investigators to perform two-phase flow and phase transition research in flow boiling and condensation. Along with the test module that is experiment specific, the FBCE system consists of the fluid, avionics, and software subsystems. Currently two test modules, namely, the Flow Boiling Module (FBM) and the Condensation Module for Heat Transfer (CM-HT) are available. A third module, the Transfer Line test Module (TL) is being developed. The fluid subsystem conditions and delivers the fluid at the desired thermodynamic state to the test module. It consists of two fluid modules and a heater module that are connected by flex hoses for fluid circulation and by data and electrical cables for control and data acquisition. Two avionics modules acquire pressure and temperature data from various sensors in the flow loop. For FBM, a high-speed camera is available to acquire images of the boiling process. Experiments are operated autonomously by software and are based on an Experiment Parameters Master Table (EPMT) that is uploaded to ISS and is executed by the FBCE flight software. This presentation briefly introduces the objectives of FBCE and provides a system description of the experiment onboard of the ISS/Fluid Integrated Rack (FIR). Results of the test campaign carried out using the FBM are presented. Specifically, microgravity flow boiling of n-perfluorohexane (test fluid) is discussed with subcooled inlet conditions in a single-side-heated rectangular channel of dimensions 114.6-mm heated length, 2.5-mm heated width, and 5.0-mm height. Key operating parameters investigated are mass velocity (199.90 – 3200.13 kg/m2s), inlet subcooling (0.10 – 45.76°C), and inlet pressure (113.30 – 164.29 kPa). Image sequences acquired via high-speed-video are shown to elucidate the interfacial flow physics. The effects of various parameters on flow boiling heat transfer in microgravity, from the onset of boiling to the critical heat flux are discussed. Heat transfer results are presented in terms of flow boiling curves, streamwise profiles of wall temperature and heat transfer coefficient, and parametric trends of local and averaged heat transfer coefficient, and the critical heat flux.

Two-phase flow and phase transition↗