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Recovering the fine structures in solar images

Several examples of the capability of the blind iterative deconvolution (BID) technique to recover the real point spread function, when limited a priori information is available about its characteristics. To demonstrate the potential of image post-processing for probing the fine scale and temporal variability of the solar atmosphere, the BID technique is applied to different samples of solar observations from space. The BID technique was originally proposed for correction of the effects of atmospheric turbulence on optical images. The processed images provide a detailed view of the spatial structure of the solar atmosphere at different heights in regions with different large-scale magnetic field structures.

Karovska, Margarita↗

Biogenic nonmethane hydrocarbon emissions estimated from tethered balloon observations

A new technique for estimating surface fluxes of trace gases, the mixed-layer gradient technique, is used to calculate isoprene and terpene emissions from forests. The technique is applied to tethered balloon measurements made over the Amazon forest and a pine-oak forest in Alabama at altitudes up to 300 m. The observations were made during the dry season Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE 2A) and the Rural Oxidants in the Southern Environment 1990 experiment (ROSE I). Results from large eddy simulations of scalar transport in the clear convective boundary layer are used to infer fluxes from the balloon profiles. Profiles from the Amazon give a mean daytime emission of 3630 +/- 1400 micrograms isoprene sq m/h, where the uncertainty represents the standard deviation of the mean of eight flux estimates. Twenty profiles from Alabama give emissions of 4470 +/- 3300 micrograms isoprene sq m/h, 1740 +/- 1060 micrograms alpha-pinene sq m/h, and 790 +/- 560 micrograms beta-pinene sq m/h, respectively. These results are in agreement with emissions derived from chemical budgets. The emissions may be overestimated because of uncertainty about how to incorporate the effects of the canopy on the mixed-layer gradients. The large variability in these emission estimates is probably due to the relatively short sampling times of the balloon profiles, though spatially heterogeneous emissions may also play a role. Fluxes derived using this technique are representative of an upwind footprint of several kilometers and are independent of hydrocarbon oxidation rate and mean advection.

Davis, K. J.↗

High Resolution Spectroscopy of Vega-like Stars: Abundances and Circumstellar Gas

Vega-like stars are main-sequence stars exhibiting excess infrared emission. In an effort to improve the information available on this class of star, 13 stars have been analyzed which have been classed as Vega-like, or have an infra-red excess attributable to dust in their circumstellar environment. In a separate paper stellar properties such as effective temperature and log g have been derived and in this poster we highlight the results of the photospheric abundance analysis also carried out during this work. King recently drew attention to the possible link between Vega-like stars and the photospheric metal-depleted class of A-stars, the Lambda Bootis stars. Since Vega-like stars are thought to have disks of dust, it might be expected that accretion of depleted gas onto the surface of these stars may cause this same phenomenon. In the 6 stars studied for depletions, none showed the extreme underabundance patterns observed in Lambda Bootis stars. However, depletions of silicon and magnesium were found in two of the sample, suggesting that these elements are in silicate dust grains in the circumstellar environment of these stars. Absorption lines attributed to circumstellar gas have been positively identified in three stars in our sample. Individual cases show evidence either of high-velocity outflowing gas, variability in the circumstellar lines observed, or evidence of circumstellar gas in excited lines of Fe II. No previous identification of circumstellar material has been made for two of the stars in question.

Dunkin, S. K.↗

Uncertainty in Satellite Rainfall Estimates: Time Series Comparison

We examined nine satellite rainfall algorithms and compared the rain fields produced from these algorithms for the period of August 1987 to December 1988. Preliminary results show algorithms which use the same satellite sensor data tend to be similar, suggesting the importance of sampling. Oceanic global mean rainfall ranges from 2.7 to 3.6 mm/d. The variability in zonal mean rain rate is about 1.5-2 mm/d for these algorithms.

Chang, Alfred T. C.↗

Saturn Deep Atmospheric Entry Probes Delivered by INSIDE Jupiter Derivative Spacecraft

In situ probes are the most reliable means for sampling composition and conditions deep in giant planet atmospheres. Deep constituent abundances at the giant planets offer clues to conditions in the solar systems protoplanetary disk and variations with heliocentric distance. Currently in situ atmospheric data are available from only one giant planet, Jupiter, and probes that penetrate deeper than the Galileo probe are needed there to measure the deep abundances of such important species as H2O and H2S. Deep probes at Saturn would extend the sampled heliocentric range to Saturn, providing important constraints on the conditions and variability of the protoplanetary disk, and would provide significant new information about Saturn and its evolutionary processes. Such a probe mission could be implemented using a derivative of the INSIDE Jupiter mission's spacecraft as the Carrier/Relay Spacecraft (CRSC), with probes per JPL/Team X and other design studies. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Spilker, T. R.↗

Effect of Random Geometric Uncertainty on the Computational Design of a 3-D Flexible Wing

The effect of geometric uncertainty due to statistically independent, random, normally distributed shape parameters is demonstrated in the computational design of a 3-D flexible wing. A first-order second-moment statistical approximation method is used to propagate the assumed input uncertainty through coupled Euler CFD aerodynamic / finite element structural codes for both analysis and sensitivity analysis. First-order sensitivity derivatives obtained by automatic differentiation are used in the input uncertainty propagation. These propagated uncertainties are then used to perform a robust design of a simple 3-D flexible wing at supercritical flow conditions. The effect of the random input uncertainties is shown by comparison with conventional deterministic design results. Sample results are shown for wing planform, airfoil section, and structural sizing variables.

Gumbert, C. R.↗

The Role of Wave Cyclones in Transporting Boundary Layer Air to the Free Troposphere During the Spring 2001 NASA / TRACE-P Experiment

Transport of boundary layer air to the free troposphere by cyclones during NASA's Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment is investigated. Airstreams responsible for boundary layer venting are diagnosed using results from a high-resolution meteorological model (MM5) together with in situ and remotely sensed chemical data. Hourly wind data from the MM5 are used to calculate three-dimensional grids of backward air trajectories. A reverse domain filling (RDF) technique then is employed to examine the characteristics of airstreams over the computational domain, and to isolate airstreams ascending from the boundary layer to the free troposphere during the previous 36 hours. Two cases are examined in detail. Results show that airstreams responsible for venting the boundary layer differ considerably from those described by classic conceptual models and in the recent literature. In addition, airstreams sampled by the TRACE-P aircraft are found to exhibit large variability in chemical concentrations. This variability is due to differences in the boundary layer histories of individual airstreams with respect to anthropogenic sources over continental Asia and Japan. Complex interactions between successive wave cyclones also are found to be important in determining the chemical composition of the airstreams. Particularly important is the process of post-cold frontal boundary layer air being rapidly transported offshore and recirculated into ascending airstreams of upstream cyclones.

Fuelberg, Henry E.↗

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Mineralogy of SNC Meteorite EET79001 by Simultaneous Fitting of Moessbauer Backscatter Spectra

We have acquired M ssbauer spectra for SNC meteorite EET79001 with a MIMOS II backscatter M ssbauer spectrometer [1] similar to those now operating on Mars as part of the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) missions. We are working to compare the Fe mineralogical composition of martian meteorites with in-situ measurements on Mars. Our samples were hand picked from the >1 mm size fraction of saw fines on the basis of lithology, color, and grain size (Table 1). The chips were individually analyzed at approx.300K by placing them on a piece of plastic that was in turn supported by the contact ring of the instrument (oriented vertically). Tungsten foil was used to mask certain areas from analysis. As shown in Figure 1, a variety of spectra was obtained, each resulting from different relative contributions of the Fe-bearing minerals present in the sample. Because the nine samples are reasonably mixtures of the same Fe-bearing phases in variable proportions, the nine spectra were fit simultaneously (simfit) with a common model, adjusting parameters to a single minimum chi-squared convergence criterion [2]. The starting point for the fitting model and values of hyperfine parameters was the work of Solberg and Burns [3], who identified olivine, pyroxene, and ferrous glass as major, and ilmenite and a ferric phase as minor (<5%), Fe-bearing phases in EET79001.

Morris, Richard V.↗

Deuterium Isotope Fractionation of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Meteorites as an Indicator of Interstellar/Protosolar Processing History

The stable isotope composition of soluble and insoluble organic compounds in carbonaceous chondrites can be used to determine the provenance of organic molecules in space. Deuterium enrichment in meteoritic organics could be a residual signal of synthetic reactions occurring in the cold interstellar medium or an indicator of hydrothermal parent-body reactions. δD values have been measured in grains and bulk samples for a wide range of meteorites; however, these reservoirs are highly variable and may have experienced fractionation during thermal and/or aqueous alteration. Among the plethora of organic compounds in meteorites are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are stable and abundant in carbonaceous chondrites, and their δD ratio may preserve evidence about their formation environment as well as the influence of parent-body processes. This study tests hypotheses about the potential links between PAHs-deuteration concentrations and their formation conditions by examining the δD ratio of PAHs in three CM carbonaceous chondrites representing an aqueous alteration gradient. We use deuterium enrichments in soluble 2–5-ring PAHs as an indicator of either photon-driven deuteration due to unimolecular photodissociation in warm regions of space, gas-phase ion–molecule reactions in cold interstellar regions of space, or UV photolysis in ices. We also test hypothesized reaction pathways during parent-body processing that differ between partially and fully aromatized PAHs. New methodological approaches were developed to extract small, volatile PAHs without fractionation. Our results suggest that meteoritic PAHs could have formed through reactions in cold regions, with possible overprinting of deuterium enrichment during aqueous parent-body alteration, but the data could not rule out PAH alteration in icy mantles as well.

H V Graham↗

Comparison of dynamic height variations in the tropical Atlantic during 1987-1989 as viewed in sections hydrography and Geosat altimetry

During the 1980s the Soviet Union conducted a series of 25 hydrographic cruises in the tropical Atlantic under the Sections (acronym for Energetically Active Zones of the Ocean and Climate Variability) program. As one of its objectives, Sections has produced the most extensive hydrographic data set ever collected in the tropical Atlantic. Here we examine dynamic topography from seven cruises during the years 1987 through 1989 and compare them to corresponding maps of sea level from the Geosat satellite mission. The two independent estimates of sea level variation are well correlated, with the sea level fields explaining approximately half of the variance of dynamic height fields. There is a seasonal variation to the agreement, so that the correlation increases somewhat in summer and fall, as the variability of the height field increases. Wavenumber spectra of both dynamic height and sea level are quite red for wavelengths greater than 400-600 km. Smaller wavelengths cannot be resolved by the hydrographic sampling program. A comparison of the dynamic height and sea level spectra indicates that sea level has somewhat less variability than dynamic height at all wavenumbers.

Carton, James A.↗

A preliminary study of the variability and magnitude of the flux of biogenic sulfur gases from a New Hampshire salt marsh

Salt marshes have highly variable spatial and temporal fluxes of hydrogen sulfide, carbonyl sulfide, methane thiol, dimethyl sulfide, and carbon disulfide (H2S, COS, MeSH, DMS, and CS2, respectively). This variability was tested at nine emission sites in a New Hampshire, USA salt marsh: three replicates in each of three vegetation zones, Spartina alterniflora, S. patens, and a transition zone. Three sites were sampled simultaneously, either within or across vegetation zones, using a dynamic flux chamber technique. Difficulties with calibration and field equipment resulted in fluxes with maximum absolute uncertainties of greater than plus or minus 200 percent. However, the relative uncertainty between subsequent samples was closer to plus or minus 20 percent. Chambers are expected to affect the natural flux of gases by altering the humidity, temperature, and composition of the gas inside the chamber. Summertime fluxes are highest for all gases except COS which demonstrated evidence of a springtime peak. A summertime background flux of 5 to 100 x 10(exp -9) g S/m(sup -2) min was observed for all gases, while S alternifora fluxes of MeSH and DMS were approximately 8 fold and approximately 100 fold higher than S. patens, respectively. DMS and MeSH fluxes were higher during the day than at night. Evidence of COS uptake by plants was observed. CS2 appeared to be the quantitatively least important sulfur gas emitted. Improved laboratory and sample collection techniques and further data collection in the field will yield information on the details of salt marsh variability, will improve estimates of the error associated with single flux measurements, and will allow a more accurate estimation of sulfur fluxes from salt marshes based on vegetation and area coverage data. Inability to control the temperature and humidity inside of the chamber remain significant problems with the chamber design.

Morrison, Michael Cope↗

Field Observations of Soil Moisture Variability across Scales

In this study, over 36,000 ground-based soil moisture measurements collected during the SGP97, SGP99, SMEX02, and SMEX03 field campaigns were analyzed to characterize the behavior of soil moisture variability across scales. The field campaigns were conducted in Oklahoma and Iowa in the central USA. The Oklahoma study region is sub-humid with moderately rolling topography, while the Iowa study region is humid with low-relief topography. The relationship of soil moisture standard deviation, skewness and the coefficient of variation versus mean moisture content was explored at six distinct extent scales, ranging from 2.5 m to 50 km. Results showed that variability generally increases with extent scale. The standard deviation increased from 0.036 cm3/cm3 at the 2.5-m scale to 0.071 cm3/cm3 at the 50-km scale. The log standard deviation of soil moisture increased linearly with the log extent scale, from 16 m to 1.6 km, indicative of fractal scaling. The soil moisture standard deviation versus mean moisture content exhibited a convex upward relationship at the 800-m and 50-km scales, with maximum values at mean moisture contents of roughly 0.17 cm3/cm3 and 0.19 cm3/cm3, respectively. An empirical model derived from the observed behavior of soil moisture variability was used to estimate uncertainty in the mean moisture content for a fixed number of samples at the 800-m and 50-km scales, as well as the number of ground-truth samples needed to achieve 0.05 cm3/cm3 and 0.03 cm3/cm3 accuracies. The empirical relationships can also be used to parameterize surface soil moisture variations in land surface and hydrological models across a range of scales. To our knowledge, this is the first study to document the behavior of soil moisture variability over this range of extent scales using ground-based measurements. Our results will contribute not only to efficient and reliable satellite validation, but also to better utilization of remotely sensed soil moisture products for enhanced modeling and prediction.

Famiglietti, James S.↗

Variability of ozone near the tropopause from GASP data

The first 22 months of ozone data from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. Variations in space and time were examined at nearly all scales permitted by the data. Case studies in the tropics suggest that local ozone maxima may be found in or near clouds. Preliminary seasonal mean maps of ozone during spring are presented for the Northern Hemisphere. In the troposphere over the United States during summer there is a distinct midcontinental ozone maximum. There is a diurnal variation in ozone in the upper troposphere and the daily range is about 5 ppbv. Correlations between ozone and other variables are given for the synoptic-scale and on a hemispheric scale. The possible bearing of these results on ozone transport computations is discussed.

Nastrom, G. D.↗

A Nationwide Study of REEs in Geothermal and Produced Waters: Final Results

This study sampled and analyzed water from around the United States. Activities that enhanced this work included the co-collection of rock samples, the statistical analysis of the data with an ESOM, and evaluation of extraction by three promising methods. These activities led to five conclusions (1) REEs sometimes occur in continental groundwater in excess of 1000-times their seawater concentrations. (2) REEs exist as a trace (ng/L) component in all analyzed samples. (3) The traditional distinction of light (Z=57-64) and heavy (Z=65-71) REEs in rock-mineral chemistry applies to aqueous chemistry. (4) REE content is not significantly controlled by lithology, reservoir temperature, nor salinity. (5) REE concentration, both in sampled basins and neural network predictions of potential, appears to be spatially co-associated, with the basin mattering more than formation. These five conclusions have advanced the scientific understanding of REEs in subsurface geothermal systems. These conclusions suggest that future work study three questions. (1) What is the spatially–dependent variable that controls REE concentration? (2) Does the output of the ESOM change significantly as input samples are grown in both number and spatial extent? (3) Compared with next-gen analytical techniques, under what metrics does the current method for aqueous REE analysis perform well, and under what metrics is it surpassed? Some of these questions are being investigated in new projects that grew from this work, others would benefit from government support.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Parsec-scale Properties of Steep- and Flat-spectrum Extragalactic Radio Sources from a VLBA Survey of a Complete North Polar Cap Sample

We observed with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) at 2.3 and 8.6 GHz a complete flux-density-limited sample of 482 radio sources with decl. > +75° brighter than 200 mJy at 1.4 GHz drawn from the NVSS catalog. A total of 34% of the sources show parsec-scale emission above the flux density detection limit of 30 mJy; their accurate positions and parsec-scale structure parameters are determined. Among all the sources detected at least at the shortest VLBA baselines, the majority, or 72%, have a steep single-dish spectrum. The fraction of the sources with a detectable parsec-scale structure is above 95% among the flat-spectrum objects and close to 25% among the steep-spectrum objects. We identified 82 compact steep-spectrum source candidates, which make up 17% of the sample; most of them are reported for the first time. The compactness and the brightness temperature of the sources in our sample show a positive correlation with single-dish and VLBA spectral indices. All the sources with a significant 8 GHz variability were detected by the VLBA snapshot observations, which independently confirmed their compactness. We demonstrated that 54% of the sources detected by the VLBA at 2.3 GHz in our sample have a steep VLBA spectrum. The compact radio emission of these sources is likely dominated by optically thin jets or mini-lobes, not by an opaque jet core. These results show that future VLBI surveys aimed at searching for new sources with parsec-scale structure should include not only flat-spectrum sources but also steep-spectrum ones in order to reach an acceptable level of completeness.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Parsec-scale Properties of Steep- and Flat-spectrum Extragalactic Radio Sources from a VLBA Survey of a Complete North Polar Cap Sample

We observed with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) at 2.3 and 8.6 GHz a complete flux-density-limited sample of 482 radio sources with decl. > +75° brighter than 200 mJy at 1.4 GHz drawn from the NVSS catalog. A total of 34% of the sources show parsec-scale emission above the flux density detection limit of 30 mJy; their accurate positions and parsec-scale structure parameters are determined. Among all the sources detected at least at the shortest VLBA baselines, the majority, or 72%, have a steep single-dish spectrum. The fraction of the sources with a detectable parsec-scale structure is above 95% among the flat-spectrum objects and close to 25% among the steep-spectrum objects. We identified 82 compact steep-spectrum source candidates, which make up 17% of the sample; most of them are reported for the first time. The compactness and the brightness temperature of the sources in our sample show a positive correlation with single-dish and VLBA spectral indices. All the sources with a significant 8 GHz variability were detected by the VLBA snapshot observations, which independently confirmed their compactness. We demonstrated that 54% of the sources detected by the VLBA at 2.3 GHz in our sample have a steep VLBA spectrum. The compact radio emission of these sources is likely dominated by optically thin jets or mini-lobes, not by an opaque jet core. These results show that future VLBI surveys aimed at searching for new sources with parsec-scale structure should include not only flat-spectrum sources but also steep-spectrum ones in order to reach an acceptable level of completeness.

A V Popkov↗

A search for new phenomena in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13\,\text {TeV} $ in final states with missing transverse momentum and at least one jet using the $\alpha _{\mathrm {T}}$ variable

A search for new phenomena is performed in final states containing one or more jets and an imbalance in transverse momentum in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 $\,\text {TeV}$ . The analysed data sample, recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC, corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 2.3 $\,\text {fb}^{-1}$ . Several kinematic variables are employed to suppress the dominant background, multijet production, as well as to discriminate between other standard model and new physics processes. The search provides sensitivity to a broad range of new-physics models that yield a stable weakly interacting massive particle. The number of observed candidate events is found to agree with the expected contributions from standard model processes, and the result is interpreted in the mass parameter space of fourteen simplified supersymmetric models that assume the pair production of gluinos or squarks and a range of decay modes. For models that assume gluino pair production, masses up to 1575 and 975 $\,\text {GeV}$ are excluded for gluinos and neutralinos, respectively. For models involving the pair production of top squarks and compressed mass spectra, top squark masses up to 400 $\,\text {GeV}$ are excluded.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗