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FilDReaMS: II. Application to the analysis of the relative orientations between filaments and the magnetic field in four Herschel fields

Context. Both simulations and observations of the interstellar medium show that the study of the relative orientations between filamentary structures and the magnetic field can bring new insight into the role played by magnetic fields in the formation and evolution of filaments and in the process of star formation. Aims. We provide a first application of FilDReaMS, the new method presented in the companion paper to detect and analyze filaments in a given image. The method relies on a template that has the shape of a rectangular bar with variable width. Our goal is to investigate the relative orientations between the detected filaments and the magnetic field. Methods. We apply FilDReaMS to a small sample of four Herschel fields (G210, G300, G82, G202) characterized by different Galactic environments and different evolutionary stages. First, we look for the most prevalent bar widths, and we examine the networks formed by filaments of different bar widths as well as their hierarchical organization. Second, we compare the filament orientations to the magnetic field orientation inferred from Planck polarization data and, for the first time, we study the statistics of the relative orientation angle as functions of both spatial scale and H2 column density. Results. We find preferential relative orientations in the four Herschel fields: small filaments with low column densities tend to be slightly more parallel than perpendicular to the magnetic field; in contrast, large filaments, which all have higher column densities, are oriented nearly perpendicular (or, in the case of G202, more nearly parallel) to the magnetic field. In the two nearby fields (G210 and G300), we observe a transition from mostly parallel to mostly perpendicular relative orientations at an H 2 column density ≃ 1.1 × 10 21 cm -2 and 1.4 × 10 21 cm -2 , respectively, consistent with the results of previous studies. Conclusions. Our results confirm the existence of a coupling between magnetic fields at cloud scales and filaments at smaller scale. They also illustrate the potential of combining Herschel and Planck observations, and they call for further statistical analyses with our dedicated method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A novel approach to neutron scattering instrumentation for probing multiscale dynamics in soft and biological matter

We present a concept and ray-tracing simulation results of a mechanical device that will enable inelastic neutron scattering measurements where the data at energy transfers from a few eV to several hundred meV can be collected in a single, gapless spectrum. Besides covering 5 orders of magnitude on the energy (time) scale, the device provides data over 2 orders of magnitude on the scattering momentum (length) scale in a single measurement. Such capabilities are geared primarily toward soft and biological matter, where the broad dynamical features of relaxation origin largely overlap with vibration features, thus necessitating gapless spectral coverage over several orders of magnitude in time and space. Furthermore, neutron scattering experiments with such a device are performed with a fixed neutron final energy, which enables measurements, with neutron energy loss in the sample, at arbitrarily low temperatures over the same broad spectral range. Lastly, this capability is also invaluable in biological and soft matter research, as the variable temperature dependence of different relaxation components allows their separation in the scattering spectra as a function of temperature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Measurement of jet substructure in boosted $t\overline{t}$ events with the ATLAS detector using 140 fb -1 of 13 TeV $pp$ collisions

Measurements of the substructure of top-quark jets are presented, using 140 fb -1 of 13 TeV pp collision data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Top-quark jets reconstructed with the anti-k t algorithm with a radius parameter R = 1.0 are selected in top-quark pair ($t\overline{t}$) events where one top quark decays semileptonically and the other hadronically, or where both top quarks decay hadronically. The top-quark jets are required to have transverse momentum p T > 350 GeV, yielding large samples of data events with jet p T values between 350 and 600 GeV. One- and two-dimensional differential cross sections for eight substructure variables, defined using only the charged components of the jets, are measured in a particle-level phase space by correcting for the smearing and acceptance effects induced by the detector. The differential cross sections are compared with the predictions of several Monte Carlo simulations in which top-quark pair-production quantum chromodynamic matrix-element calculations at next-to-leading-order precision in the strong coupling constant α S are passed to leading-order parton shower and hadronization generators. The Monte Carlo predictions for measures of the broadness, and also the two-body structure, of the top-quark jets are found to be in good agreement with the measurements, while variables sensitive to the three-body structure of the top-quark jets exhibit some tension with the measured distributions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Community structure – Ecosystem function relationships in the Congo Basin methane cycle depend on the physiological scale of function

Belowground ecosystem processes can be highly variable and difficult to predict using microbial community data. Here, we argue that this stems from at least three issues: (a) complex covariance structure of samples (with environmental conditions or spatial proximity) can make distinguishing biotic drivers a challenge; (b) communities can control ecosystem processes through multiple mechanisms, making the identification of these controls a challenge; and (c) ecosystem function assessments can be broad in physiological scale, encapsulating multiple processes with unique microbially mediated controls. In this work, we test these assertions using methane (CH 4 )-cycling processes in soil samples collected along a wetland-to-upland habitat gradient in the Congo Basin. We perform our measurements of function under controlled laboratory conditions and statistically control for environmental covariates to aid in identifying biotic drivers. We divide measurements of microbial communities into four attributes (abundance, activity, composition, and diversity) that represent different forms of community control. Lastly, our process measurements differ in physiological scale, including broader processes (gross methanogenesis and methanotrophy) that involve more mediating groups, to finer processes (hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and high-affinity CH 4 oxidation) with fewer mediating groups. We observed that finer scale processes can be more readily predicted from microbial community structure than broader scale processes. In addition, the nature of those relationships differed, with broad processes limited by abundance while fine-scale processes were associated with diversity and composition. These findings demonstrate the importance of carefully defining the physiological scale of ecosystem function and performing community measurements that represent the range of possible controls on ecosystem processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mineralogical controls on antimony and arsenic mobility during tetrahedrite-tennantite weathering at historic mine sites Špania Dolina-Piesky and Lubietová-Svätodušná, Slovakia

The legacy of copper (Cu) mining at Špania Dolina-Piesky and Lubietová-Svätodušná (central Slovakia) is waste rock and soil, surface waters, and groundwaters contaminated with antimony (Sb), arsenic (As), Cu, and other metals. Copper ore is hosted in chalcopyrite (CuFeS2) and sulfosalt solid-solution tetrahedrite-tennantite {Cu6[Cu4(Fe,Zn)2]Sb4S13–Cu6[Cu4(Fe,Zn)2]As4S13} that show wide-spread oxidation characteristic by olive-green color secondary minerals. Tetrahedrite-tennantite can be a significant source of As and Sb contamination. Synchrotron-based μ-XRD, μ-XRF, and μ-XANES combined with electron microprobe analyses have been used to determine the mineralogy, chemical composition, element distribution, and Sb speciation in tetrahedrite-tennantite oxidation products in waste rock. Our results show that the mobility of Sb is limited by the formation of oxidation products such as tripuhyite and roméite group mineral containing 36.54 wt% Sb for samples where the primary mineral chemical composition is close to tetrahedrite end-member. Antimony K-edge μ-XANES spectra of these oxidation products indicate that the predominant Sb oxidation state is 5+. Arsenic and Cu are also hosted by amorphous phases containing 6.23 wt% Sb on average and these are intergrown with tripuhyite and roméite. Antimony in this environment is not very mobile, meaning it is not easily released from solid phases to water, especially compared to As, Cu, and S. For samples where the primary sulfosalt is close to tennantite composition, the oxidation products associated with tennantite relicts contain 2.43 wt% Sb and are amorphous. The variable solubility of the secondary minerals that have been identified is expected to influence mobility of Sb and As in near-surface environment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. III. Imaging of the Galactic Center Supermassive Black Hole

We present the first event-horizon-scale images and spatiotemporal analysis of Sgr A* taken with the Event Horizon Telescope in 2017 April at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. Imaging of Sgr A* has been conducted through surveys over a wide range of imaging assumptions using the classical CLEAN algorithm, regularized maximum likelihood methods, and a Bayesian posterior sampling method. Different prescriptions have been used to account for scattering effects by the interstellar medium toward the Galactic center. Mitigation of the rapid intraday variability that characterizes Sgr A* has been carried out through the addition of a “variability noise budget” in the observed visibilities, facilitating the reconstruction of static full-track images. Our static reconstructions of Sgr A* can be clustered into four representative morphologies that correspond to ring images with three different azimuthal brightness distributions and a small cluster that contains diverse nonring morphologies. Based on our extensive analysis of the effects of sparse (u,v)-coverage, source variability, and interstellar scattering, as well as studies of simulated visibility data, we conclude that the Event Horizon Telescope Sgr A* data show compelling evidence for an image that is dominated by a bright ring of emission with a ring diameter of ∼50 μas, consistent with the expected “shadow” of a 4 × 10$^{6}$ M $_{⊙}$ black hole in the Galactic center located at a distance of 8 kpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TRACER-Tethersonde VOC data

One objective of TRACER-Tethersonde campaign was to deploy a volatile organic compound (VOC) sampler on the Tethered Balloon System (TBS) to create vertical profiles and characterize VOC composition. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are highly reactive precursor species that undergo atmospheric processing to form secondary products, including aerosol. VOC emissions are influenced by many factors that include but are not limited to temperature, time of day, local anthropogenic activities, and local vegetation, which result in large spatiotemporal variability. The vertical distribution of volatile species is crucial for understanding gas-phase processing for particle production but challenging to accomplish using currently available sampling devices. The standalone sampler built during the campaign enabled the execution of robust experimental designs, including sample collection using resin tubes at multiple altitudes on subsequent flights. Following field sampling, resin tubes were transported back to Baylor University for chemical analysis using a Markes International thermal desorption unit coupled with a gas chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometer (Thermo Scientific). The target analyte list includes biogenic and anthropogenic VOCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: Evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations

A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010–2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols. The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010–2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. Furthermore, the evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimal Eco-Driving Control of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Through Signalized Intersections

This article focuses on the speed planning problem for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) communicating to traffic lights. The uncertainty of traffic signal timing for signalized intersections on the road is considered. The eco-driving problem is formulated as a data-driven chance-constrained robust optimization problem. Effective red-light duration (ERD) is defined as a random variable, and describes the feasible passing time through the signalized intersections. Usually, the true probability distribution for ERD is unknown. Consequently, a data-driven approach is adopted to formulate chance constraints based on empirical sample data. This incorporates robustness into the eco-driving control problem with respect to uncertain signal timing. Dynamic programming (DP) is employed to solve the optimization problem. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can generate optimal speed reference trajectories with 40% less vehicle fuel consumption, while maintaining the arrival time at a similar level compared to a modified intelligent driver model (IDM). The proposed control approach significantly improves the controller's robustness in the face of uncertain signal timing, without requiring to know the distribution of the random variable a priori.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Retrospective analysis of pulse oximeter alarm settings in an intensive care unit patient population

Background: The cacophony of alerts and alarms in a hospital produced by medical devices results in alarm fatigue. The pulse oximeter is one of the most common sources of alarms. One of the ways to reduce alarm rates is to adjust alarm settings at the bedside. This study is aimed to retrospectively examine individual pulse oximeter alarm settings on alarm rates and inter- and intra- patient variability. Methods: Nine hundred sixty-two previously collected intensive care unit (ICU) patient records were obtained from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II Database (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA). Inclusion criteria included patient records that contained SpO 2 trend data sampled at 1 Hz for at least 1 h and a matching clinical record. SpO 2 alarm rates were simulated by applying a range of thresholds (84, 86, 88, and 90 %) and delay times (10 to 60 s) to the SpO 2 data. Patient records with at least 12 h of SpO 2 data were examined for the variability in alarm rate over time. Results: Decreasing SpO 2 thresholds and increasing delay times resulted in decreased alarm rates. A limited number of patient records accounted for most alarms, and this number increased as alarm settings loosened (the top 10 % of patient records were responsible for 57.4 % of all alarms at an SpO 2 threshold of 90 % and 15 s delay and 81.6 % at an SpO 2 threshold of 84 % and 45 s delay). Alarm rates were not consistent over time for individual patients with periods of high and low alarms for all alarm settings. Conclusion: Pulse oximeter SpO 2 alarm rates are variable between patients and over time, and the alarm rate and the extent of inter- and intra-patient variability can be affected by the alarm settings. Personalized alarm settings for a patient’s current status may help to reduce alarm fatigue for nurses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ERRATIC FLARING OF BL LAC IN 2012–2013: MULTIWAVELENGTH OBSERVATIONS

BL Lac, the eponymous blazar, flared to historically high levels at millimeter, infrared, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths in 2012. We present observations made with Herschel, Swift, NuSTAR, Fermi, the Submillimeter Array, CARMA, and the VLBA in 2012–2013, including three months with nearly daily sampling at several wavebands. We have also conducted an intensive campaign of 30 hr with every-orbit observations by Swift and NuSTAR, accompanied by Herschel, and Fermi observations. The source was highly variable at all bands. Time lags, correlations between bands, and the changing shapes of the spectral energy distributions can be explained by synchrotron radiation and inverse Compton emission from nonthermal seed photons originating from within the jet. The passage of four new superluminal very long baseline interferometry knots through the core and two stationary knots about 4 pc downstream accompanied the high flaring in 2012–2013. The seed photons for inverse Compton scattering may arise from the stationary knots and from a Mach disk near the core where relatively slow-moving plasma generates intense nonthermal radiation. The 95 spectral energy distributions obtained on consecutive days form the most densely sampled, broad wavelength coverage for any blazar. The observed spectral energy distributions and multi-waveband light curves are similar to simulated spectral energy distributions and light curves generated with a model in which turbulent plasma crosses a conical shock with a Mach disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey: Changing-look Quasar Candidates from Multi-epoch Spectroscopy in SDSS-IV

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) can vary significantly in their rest-frame optical/UV continuum emission, and with strong associated changes in broad line emission, on much shorter timescales than predicted by standard models of accretion disks around supermassive black holes. Most such changing-look or changing-state AGN—and at higher luminosities, changing-look quasars (CLQs)—have been found via spectroscopic follow-up of known quasars showing strong photometric variability. The Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV) includes repeat spectroscopy of large numbers of previously known quasars, many selected irrespective of photometric variability, and with spectral epochs separated by months to decades. Our visual examination of these repeat spectra for strong broad line variability yielded 61 newly discovered CLQ candidates. We quantitatively compare spectral epochs to measure changes in continuum and Hβ broad line emission, finding 19 CLQs, of which 15 are newly recognized. The parent sample includes only broad line quasars, so our study tends to find objects that have dimmed, i.e., turn-off CLQs. However, we nevertheless find four turn-on CLQs that meet our criteria, albeit with broad lines in both dim and bright states. We study the response of Hβ and Mg ii emission lines to continuum changes. The Eddington ratios of CLQs are low, and/or their Hβ broad line width is large relative to the overall quasar population. Repeat quasar spectroscopy in the upcoming SDSS-V black hole Mapper program will reveal significant numbers of CLQs, enhancing our understanding of the frequency and duty cycle of such strong variability, and the physics and dynamics of the phenomenon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Resolve the Clear-Sky Continuous Diurnal Cycle of High-Resolution ECOSTRESS Evapotranspiration and Land Surface Temperature

Although numerous evapotranspiration (ET) estimates have been developed from remote sensing measurements, a diurnally resolved product with high spatial resolution (<100 m) is still lacking, which is critically needed for agricultural and ecological monitoring. The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) provides, for the first time, ET at 70 m resolution with diurnal samplings, enabling a step toward filling this data gap. This study developed the first framework to resolve the full diurnal cycle of ET and Land Surface Temperature (LST) from sporadic ECOSTRESS measurements. We first constructed 70 m diurnal LST utilizing a diurnal temperature cycle (DTC) model that fused ECOSTRESS and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) LST. Next, we derived 70 m diurnal ET from the diurnally resolved LST, along with ancillary meteorological and reflectance data sets, using the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) algorithm. This framework was tested in two regions: A relatively homogeneous semiarid grassland landscape (centered at the US-Seg Ameriflux site) and a heterogeneous humid cropland landscape (centered at US-ARM). Our diurnally resolved LST and ET successfully reproduced the spatial patterns in the native ECOSTRESS measurements during overpasses for both landscapes (LST: r > 0.97, RMSE ~2°C; ET: r > 0.99, and RMSE = 1–7 W m -2 ). The constructed time series also well captured the temporal variability of the in situ measurements (especially under clear-sky conditions) at both US-Seg and US-ARM, albeit performance varying with availability and quality of ECOSTRESS samples. This study sets the stage for testing and applying our framework to broader climates, biomes, and landscapes toward eventually generating diurnally resolved 70 m global operational LST/ET products to enhance ecological/agricultural applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Peak Rain Rate Sensitivity to Observed Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Turbulence in Continental Warm Shallow Clouds During CACTI

Abstract Warm clouds strongly affect Earth's energy budget but remain imperfectly represented in climate models, partly due to the complexity and covariability of relevant processes influencing warm rain. This work presents a detailed analysis of different factors affecting rain rate peak intensity (RR) in continental warm clouds. Clouds were identified with vertically pointing radar and lidar observations and categorized via a temperature‐based cloud type classification algorithm from which warm clouds were isolated. Observations and retrievals of liquid water path (LWP), cloud condensation nuclei concentration (N CCN ), cloud depth, and cloud duration of more than 3,000 separate warm clouds sampled during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign are analyzed in this work. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models are applied to assess the relative impact of these variables on RR. Overall, RR tends to increase as cloud depth, LWP, and cloud duration increase, or N CCN decreases. Cloud depth affects RR the most while N CCN impacts it the least. When considering over 170 warm clouds observed at least 1 hr in which in‐cloud turbulence is retrieved, the effect of N CCN on RR remains most likely suppressive, but it is not significant at a 75% level for MLR and is highly uncertain for RF. The impact of in‐cloud turbulence depends on the moment and location it is sampled. Cloud base turbulence around the time of RR suppresses RR, while cloud top turbulence effects are inconclusive. Possible difficulties in isolating robust CCN and turbulence effects on RR are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating wind turbine impacts on near-wake flow using profiling Lidar data and large-eddy simulations with an actuator disk model

In this study, wind turbine impacts on the atmospheric flow are investigated using data from the Crop Wind Energy Experiment (CWEX-11) and large-eddy simulations (LESs) utilizing a generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine model. CWEX-11 employed velocity-azimuth display (VAD) data from two Doppler lidar systems to sample vertical profiles of flow parameters across the rotor depth both upstream and in the wake of an operating 1.5 MW wind turbine. Lidar and surface observations obtained during four days of July 2011 are analyzed to characterize the turbine impacts on wind speed and flow variability, and to examine the sensitivity of these changes to atmospheric stability. Significant velocity deficits (VD) are observed at the downstream location during both convective and stable portions of four diurnal cycles, with large, sustained deficits occurring during stable conditions. Variances of the streamwise velocity component, σ u , likewise show large increases downstream during both stable and unstable conditions, with stable conditions supporting sustained small increases of σ u , while convective conditions featured both larger magnitudes and increased variability, due to the large coherent structures in the background flow. Two representative case studies, one stable and one convective, are simulated using LES with a GAD model at 6 m resolution to evaluate the compatibility of the simulation framework with validation using vertically profiling lidar data in the near wake region. Virtual lidars were employed to sample the simulated flow field in a manner consistent with the VAD technique. Simulations reasonably reproduced aggregated wake VD characteristics, albeit with smaller magnitudes than observed, while σu values in the wake are more significantly underestimated. The results illuminate the limitations of using a GAD in combination with coarse model resolution in the simulation of near wake physics, and validation thereof using VAD data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Chapter 14: Machine Learning of Combustion LES Models from Reacting Direct Numerical Simulation

In this chapter we demonstrate how supervised deep learning techniques can be used to construct models for the filtered progress variable source term necessary for large eddy simulation (LES). The source data for the model is a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a reacting flow in a low swirl burner configuration. Filtered quantities taken from the DNS data are used to train a deep neural network (DNN)-based model. An efficient data sampling strategy was devised to ensure that a uniform representation of all the states observed in the filtered DNS data are equally present in the training dataset. A-priori testing of the DNN-based model highlights the representative power of DNN to accurately reproduce the filtered reaction progress variable source term over a range of scales and various flame regimes as seen in an industrial burner.

combustion LES models↗

A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios

Solar power is increasingly cost viable with solar photovoltaic (PV) installations becoming commonplace. PV planning and operational studies, however, require high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios to understand potential electric grid impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of the underlying solar resource. Existing remote sensing solar data products are often available over large spatial domains, but are limited in temporal resolution. For example, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component contained within the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at time resolution of 30 min on an approximately four-kilometer grid. In contrast, substantial solar variability is present at finer time scales and this article describes an algorithm to stochastically generate one-minute GHI from widely available sub-hourly NSRDB. A generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework is proposed, which includes non-Gaussian mixtures, and extends the literature involving the synthesis of GHI data. The model is trained on a set of sample locations around Oregon, USA, and validated across the USA using both the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) dataset and Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory (SRML) network. Simulated ensembles show good coverage properties and temporal correlation structure. The resulting downscaled ensembles allow for understanding the unpredictable variability inherent in GHI at locations without direct measurements. Here, future work can leverage the algorithm as part of a stochastic optimization of electric grid operations with high-penetration PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗