Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Dynamic State Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Theoretical, observational, and isotopic estimates of the lifetime of the solar nebula

There are a variety of isotopic data for meteorites which suggest that the protostellar nebula existed and was involved in making planetary materials for some 10(exp 7) yr or more. Many cosmochemists, however, advocate alternative interpretations of such data in order to comply with a perceived constraint, from theoretical considerations, that the nebula existed only for a much shorter time, usually stated as less than or equal to 10(exp 6) yr. In this paper, we review evidence relevant to solar nebula duration which is available through three different disciplines: theoretical modeling of star formation, isotopic data from meteorites, and astronomical observations of T Tauri stars. Theoretical models based on observations of present star-forming regions indicate that stars like the Sun form by dynamical gravitational collapse of dense cores of cold molcular clouds in the interstellar clouds in the interstellar medium. The collapse to a star and disk occurs rapidly, on a time scale of the order 10(exp 5) yr. Disks evolve by dissipating energy while redistributing angular momentum, but it is difficult to predict the rate of evolution, particularly for low mass (compared to the star) disks which nonetheless still contain enough material to account for the observed planetary system. There is no compelling evidence, from available theories of disk structure and evolution, that the solar nebula must have evolved rapidly and could not have persisted for more than 1 Ma. In considering chronoloically relevant isotopic data for meteorites, we focus on three methodologies: absolute ages by U-Pb/Pb-Pb, and relative ages by short-lived radionuclides (especially Al-26) and by evolution of Sr-87/Sr-86. Two kinds of meteoritic materials-refractory inclusions such as CAIs and differential meteorites (eucrites and augrites) -- appear to have experienced potentially dateable nebular events. In both cases, the most straightforward interpretations of the available data indicate nebular events spanning several Ma. We also consider alternative interpretations, particularly the hypothesis of radically heterogeneous distribution of Al-26, which would avoid these chronological interpretations. The principal impetus for such alternative interpretations seems to be precisely the obviation of the chronological interpretation (i.e., the presumption rather than the inference of a short (less than or equal to 1 Ma) lifetime of the nebula). Astronomical observations of T Tauri stars indicate that the presence of dusty disks is a common if not universal feature, that the disks are massive enough to accomodate a planetary system such as ours, and that at least some persist for 110(exp 7) yr or more. The results are consistent with the time scales inferred from the meteoritic isotopic data. They cannot be considered conclusive with regard to solar nebula time scales, however, in part because it is difficult to relate disk observations to processes that affect meteorites, and in part because the ages assigned for these stars could be wrong by a factor of several in either direction. We conclude that the balance of available evidence favors the view that the nebula existed and was active for at least several Ma. However, because the evidence is not definitive, it is important that the issue be perceived to be an open question, whose answer should be sought rather than presumed.

Podosek, Frank A.↗

Dynamic Properties of FeCrMnNi, a High Entropy Alloy

High entropy alloys (HEAs) represent a new class of materials that potentially possess an ideal combination of high strength and ductility and may be candidate materials that can withstand high amounts of damage before failure, especially under extreme conditions. To this end, a series of shock/spall loading experiments were conducted on an Fe/Cr/Mn/Ni HEA to assess not only its equation of state (EOS) but also its resistance to damage and failure. A single-stage light gas gun was used to conduct a series of flyer plate symmetric impact experiments coupled with recovery of the samples for post-mortem microstructural analysis to obtain fundamental understanding regarding the damage morphology. Our results show that the measured EOS for this alloy was in reasonable agreement with an estimated Hugoniot value. Additionally, the spall strength of these alloys was found to vary between 1.4 and 1.9 GPa within the same plate but was comparable to other iron-based conventional alloys. DOE/NV/03624--1059

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predictions of Cell-to-Cell Propagation and Vent Gas Production in the Thermal Runaway of Lithium-Ion Battery Stacks

This work presents the thermal runaway propagation model LIM1TR (Lithium-ion Modeling with 1-D Thermal Runaway) as an efficient tool to predict different cell-to-cell thermal runaway propagation scenarios. Here, we explored the vent gas volume production and reaction duration highlighting the relationship between these parameters and thermal runaway propagation due to convection by the vented gases. Two metrics based on gas production rate and heating rate are utilized as good indicators of the start and end of thermal runaway. LIM1TR results are compared with and validated by experiments from the literature for single-cell and multicell array experiments of 5 Ah and 10 Ah cells. By accounting for intraparticle diffusion of reacting species in the electrodes, we were able to capture the general dynamics of thermal runaway propagation and estimate acceptable reaction durations compared with the experimental values. Simulation results further demonstrated that varying heating modes lead to distinct reaction durations, consistent with experimental observations. Vent gas volume predictions indicate the need to consider both full and partial oxidation of the electrolyte. The outcomes of this work are building blocks for further investigations of module-to-module propagation by vented gases through convective heat transfer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Parameterizing empirical interatomic potentials for predicting thermophysical properties via an irreducible derivative approach: the case of ThO 2 and UO 2

The accuracy of classical physical property predictions using molecular dynamics simulations is determined by the quality of the interatomic potentials. Here we introduce a training approach for empirical interatomic potentials (EIPs) which is well suited for capturing phonons and phonon-related properties. Our approach is based on direct comparisons of the second- and third-order irreducible derivatives (IDs) between an EIP and the Born–Oppenheimer potential within density functional theory (DFT) calculations. IDs fully exploit space group symmetry and allow for training without redundant information. We demonstrate the fidelity of our approach in the context of ThO 2 and UO 2 , where we optimize parameters of an embedded-atom method potential in addition to core–shell interactions. Our EIPs provide thermophysical properties in good agreement with DFT and outperform widely utilized EIPs for phonon dispersion and thermal conductivity predictions. Reasonable estimates of thermal expansion and formation energies of Frenkel pairs are also obtained.

empirical interatomic potential↗

Deblurring for nuclei: 3D characteristics of heavy-ion collisions

Observables from nuclear and high-energy experiments can be degraded by detector performance and/or methodology in extracting the observables, such as of the final-state characteristics of heavy-ion collisions in relation to a coarsely estimated reaction-plane direction. We propose the use of deblurring methods, such as in optics, to correct for observable degradation. Our main focus is the restoration of triple-differential particle distributions in heavy-ion collisions. We demonstrate that these could be extracted from collision measurements following the Richardson-Lucy deblurring method from optics. We illustrate basic features of the restoration methodology in a schematic model assuming either ideal or more realistic particle detection. Here, the inferred three-dimensional (3D) distributions for collisions may be easier to interpret in terms of collision dynamics and sought properties of bulk matter than the currently employed Fourier coefficients, that combine information from different azimuthal angles relative to the reaction plane.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

End products of cometary evolution - Cometary origin of earth-crossing bodies of asteroidal appearance

The present state of the understanding of the dynamic mechanisms under which the orbits of some comets evolve into those observed for Apollo-Amor objects is reviewed. Observed Jupiter-family objects of asteroidal appearance, e.g., 1983SA, are much more likely to be of cometary rather than asteroidal origin. 'Decoupling' is facilitated by several mechanisms: perturbations by terrestrial planets, perturbations by Jupiter and the other giant planets, and nongravitational orbital changes caused by the loss of gas and dust from the comet. The dynamical time scale for decoupling is argued to be 100,000-1,000,000 yr, and almost all decoupled comets are likely to be of asteroidal appearance. Estimates can be made of the number of cometary Apollo-Amor 'asteroids', the observed number of earth-crossing active and inactive short-period comets, and the production rate of short-period comets. These estimates are compatible with other theoretical and observational inferences that suggest the presence of a significant population of Apollo objects that formerly were active comets.

Wetherill, G. W.↗

Radiometric Characterization of IKONOS Multispectral Imagery

A radiometric characterization of Space Imaging's IKONOS 4-m multispectral imagery has been performed by a NASA funded team from the John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC), the University of Arizona Remote Sensing Group (UARSG), and South Dakota State University (SDSU). Both intrinsic radiometry and the effects of Space Imaging processing on radiometry were investigated. Relative radiometry was examined with uniform Antarctic and Saharan sites. Absolute radiometric calibration was performed using reflectance-based vicarious calibration methods on several uniform sites imaged by IKONOS, coincident with ground-based surface and atmospheric measurements. Ground-based data and the IKONOS spectral response function served as input to radiative transfer codes to generate a Top-of-Atmosphere radiance estimate. Calibration coefficients derived from each vicarious calibration were combined to generate an IKONOS radiometric gain coefficient for each multispectral band assuming a linear response over the full dynamic range of the instrument. These calibration coefficients were made available to Space Imaging, which subsequently adopted them by updating its initial set of calibration coefficients. IKONOS imagery procured through the NASA Scientific Data Purchase program is processed with or without a Modulation Transfer Function Compensation kernel. The radiometric effects of this kernel on various scene types was also investigated. All imagery characterized was procured through the NASA Scientific Data Purchase program.

Pagnutti, Mary↗

A Regional, Integrated Monitoring System for the Hydrology of the Pan-Arctic Land Mass

Work under this NASA contract developed a system for monitoring and historical analysis of the major components of the pan-Arctic terrestrial water cycle. It is known as Arctic-RIMS (Regional Integrated Hydrological Monitoring System for the Pan-Arctic Landmass). The system uses products from EOS-era satellites, numerical weather prediction models, station records and other data sets in conjunction with an atmosphere-land surface water budgeting scheme. The intent was to compile operational (at 1-2 month time lags) gridded fields of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), P-ET, soil moisture, soil freeze/thaw state, active layer thickness, snow extent and its water equivalent, soil water storage, runoff and simulated discharge along with estimates of non-closure in the water budget. Using "baseline" water budgeting schemes in conjunction with atmospheric reanalyses and pre-EOS satellite data, water budget fields were conjunction with atmospheric reanalyses and pre-EOS satellite data, water budget fields were compiled to provide historical time series. The goals as outlined in the original proposal can be summarized as follows: 1) Use EOS data to compile hydrologic products for the pan-Arctic terrestrial regions including snowcover/snow water equivalent (SSM/A MODIS, AMSR) and near-surface freeze/thaw dynamics (Sea Winds on QuikSCAT and ADEOS I4 SSMI and AMSR). 2) Implement Arctic-RIMS to use EOS data streams, allied fields and hydrologic models to produce allied outputs that fully characterize pan-Arctic terrestrial and aerological water budgets. 3) Compile hydrologically-based historical products providing a long-term baseline of spatial and temporal variability in the water cycle.

Serreze, Mark↗

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗

Efficient Super-Resolution of Near-Surface Climate Modeling Using the Fourier Neural Operator

Downscaling methods are critical in efficiently generating high-resolution atmospheric data. However, state-of-the-art statistical or dynamical downscaling techniques either suffer from the high computational cost of running a physical model or require high-resolution data to develop a downscaling tool. Here, we demonstrate a recently proposed zero-shot super-resolution method, the Fourier neural operator (FNO), to efficiently perform downscaling without the need for high-resolution data. Because the FNO learns dynamics in Fourier space, FNO is a resolution-invariant emulator; it can be trained at a coarse resolution and produces emulation at any high resolution. We applied FNO to downscale a 4-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation of near-surface heat-related variables over the Great Lakes region. The FNO is driven by the atmospheric forcings, and topographic features used in the WRF model at the same resolution. We incorporated a physics-constrained loss in FNO by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation to better constrain the relations among the emulated states. Trained on merely 600 WRF snapshots at 4-km resolution, the FNO shows comparable performance with a widely used convolutional network, U-Net, achieving averaged modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.88 and 0.94 on the test dataset for temperature and pressure, respectively. We then employed the FNO to produce 1-km emulations to reproduce the fine climate features. Further, by taking the WRF simulation as ground truth, we show consistent performances at the two resolutions, suggesting the reliability of FNO in producing high-resolution dynamics. Our study demonstrates the potential of using FNO for zero-shot super-resolution in generating first-order estimation on atmospheric modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Incorporation of a priori gravity field information in satellite orbit determination using bin parameters

A method to determine satellite orbits using tracking data and a priori gravitational field is described. The a priori constraint on the orbit dynamics is determined by the covariance matrix of the spherical harmonic coefficients for the gravity model, so that the optimal combination of the measurements and gravitational field is achieved. A set of bin parameters is introduced to represent the perturbation of the gravitational field on the position of the satellite orbit. The covariance matrix of a conventional gravity model is transformed into that for the bin parameters by the variational partial derivatives. The covariance matrices of the bin parameters and the epoch state are combined to form the covariance matrix of the satellite positions at the measurement times. The combined matrix is used as the a priori information to estimate the satellite positions with measurements.

Wu, Jiun-Tsong↗

Dynamic stability as affected by the longitudinal moment of inertia

In a recent Technical Note (NACA-TN-115, October, 1922), Norton and Carrol have reported experiments showing that a relatively large (15 per cent) increase in longitudinal moment of inertia made no noticeable difference in the stability of a standard SE-5A airplane. They point out that G. P. Thomson, "Applied Aeronautics," page 208, stated that an increase in longitudinal moment of inertia would decrease the stability. Neither he nor they make any theoretical forecast of the amount of decrease. Although it is difficult, on account of the complications of the theory of stability of the airplane, to make any accurate forecast, it is the purpose of this report to attempt a discussion of the matter theoretically with reference to finding a rough quantitative estimate.

Wilson, Edwin B↗

Measurement and Characterization of Helicopter Noise in Steady-State and Maneuvering Flight

A special acoustic flight test program was performed on the Bell 206B helicopter outfitted with an in-flight microphone boom/array attached to the helicopter while simultaneous acoustic measurements were made using a linear ground array of microphones arranged to be perpendicular to the flight path. Air and ground noise measurements were made in steady-state longitudinal and steady turning flight, and during selected dynamic maneuvers. Special instrumentation, including direct measurement of the helicopter s longitudinal tip-path-plane (TPP) angle, Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) and Inertial Navigation Unit (INU) measurements, and a pursuit guidance display were used to measure important noise controlling parameters and to make the task of flying precise operating conditions and flight track easier for the pilot. Special care was also made to test only in very low winds. The resulting acoustic data is of relatively high quality and shows the value of carefully monitoring and controlling the helicopter s performance state. This paper has shown experimentally, that microphones close to the helicopter can be used to estimate the specific noise sources that radiate to the far field, if the microphones are positioned correctly relative to the noise source. Directivity patterns for steady, turning flight were also developed, for the first time, and connected to the turning performance of the helicopter. Some of the acoustic benefits of combining normally separated flight segments (i.e. an accelerated segment and a descending segment) were also demonstrated.

Schmitz, Fredric H.↗

Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation

Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.

Zhang, Sara↗

Reducing heat load density with asymmetric and inclined double-crystal monochromators: principles and requirements revisited

Asymmetric double-crystal monochromators (aDCMs) and inclined DCMs (iDCMs) can significantly expand the X-ray beam footprint and consequently reduce the heat load density and gradient. Based on rigorous dynamical theory calculations, the major principles and properties of aDCMs and iDCMs are presented to guide their design and development, particularly for fourth-generation synchrotrons. In addition to the large beam footprint, aDCMs have very large bandwidths (up to ∼10 eV) and angular acceptance, but the narrow angular acceptance of the second crystal requires precise control of the relative orientations and strains. Based on Fourier coupled-wave diffraction theory calculations, it is rigorously proved that the iDCM has almost the same properties as the conventional symmetric DCM, including the efficiency, angular acceptance, bandwidth, tuning energy range and sensitivity to misalignment. The exception is that, for the extremely inclined geometry that can achieve very large footprint expansion, the iDCM has (beneficially) a larger bandwidth and wider angular acceptance. Inclined diffraction has the `rho-kick effect' that can be cancelled by the second reflection of the iDCM (even with misalignment), except that inhomogeneous strains may cause non-uniform rho-kick angles. At present, fabrication/mounting-induced strains pose low risk since they can be controlled to <0.5 µrad over large areas. The only uncertain challenge is the thermally induced strains, yet it is estimated that these strains are naturally lowered by the large footprint and may be further mitigated by optimized cryogenic cooling to the 1–2 µrad level. Overall, aDCMs and iDCMs have more stringent requirements than normal DCMs, but they are feasible schemes in practice.

asymmetric monochromator↗

Structural characterization of tin in toothpaste by dynamic nuclear polarization enhanced 119 Sn solid-state NMR spectroscopy

Stannous fluoride (SnF 2 ) is an effective fluoride source and antimicrobial agent that is widely used in commercial toothpaste formulations. The antimicrobial activity of SnF 2 is partly attributed to the presence of Sn(II) ions. However, it is challenging to directly determine the Sn speciation and oxidation state within commercially available toothpaste products due to the low weight loading of SnF 2 (0.454 wt% SnF 2 , 0.34 wt% Sn) and the amorphous, semi-solid nature of the toothpaste. Here, we show that dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP) enables 119 Sn solid-state NMR experiments that can probe the Sn speciation within commercially available toothpaste. Solid-state NMR experiments on SnF 2 and SnF 4 show that 19 F isotropic chemical shift and 119 Sn chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) are highly sensitive to the Sn oxidation state. DNP-enhanced 119 Sn magic-angle turning (MAT) 2D NMR spectra of toothpastes resolve Sn(II) and Sn(IV) by their 119 Sn chemical shift tensor parameters. Fits of DNP-enhanced 1D 1 H → 119 Sn solid-state NMR spectra allow the populations of Sn(II) and Sn(IV) within the toothpastes to be estimated. This analysis reveals that three of the four commercially available toothpastes contained at least 80% Sn(II), whereas one of the toothpaste contained a significantly higher amount of Sn(IV).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗