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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Kelvin–Helmholtz instability under stabilizing parallel magnetic field in nonhomogeneous compressible MHD flows

We study the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KHI) for the general case of a compressible, nonhomogeneous, magnetized plasma flow. The study is limited to a vortex sheet interface with an imposed parallel magnetic field. We introduce a new formalism based on a convective Mach number M c , a convective Alfvénic Mach number M Ac , and a total convective Mach number that combines the two. We derive an analytic expression of the KHI growth rate for a homogeneous flow (i.e., zero Atwood number, A=0) that converges toward both the expression for unmagnetized compressible flow and Chandrasekhar's expression for magnetized incompressible flow. Otherwise, the dispersion relation is solved numerically and allows deriving general stability diagrams of magnetized KHI for the triplet (A, M c , β −plasma) parameters. We show these parameters uniquely define all configurations for a parallel magnetic field. We also construct diagrams with respect to the convective Alfvénic Mach number, the β − plasma parameter, or the magnetic field showing which magnetic field strength is required for stabilizing a given shear flow. The theoretical growth rates are compared with 18 simulations made with the GAMERA code, currently used for 3D magnetospheric simulations. Finally, we apply our results to the analysis of a past KHI experiment performed at the OMEGA laser facility, showing linear theory succeeds to provide accurate estimates of the growth rate at early times. We further discuss how our results can inform future experiments in the high-Mach magnetized regime at the National Ignition Facility. Possible limitations of the study due to resistive, mixing, or turbulence effects are discussed.

compressible flows↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carrier Recombination Dynamics of Surface-Passivated Epitaxial (100)Ge, (110)Ge, and (111)Ge Layers by Atomic Layer Deposited Al2O3

Germanium (Ge) and its heterostructures with compound semiconductors offer a unique optoelectronic functionality due to its pseudo-bandgap nature, that can be transformed to a direct bandgap material by providing strain and/or mixing with tin. Moreover, two crystal surfaces, (100)Ge and (110)Ge, that are technologically important for ultralow power fin or nanosheet transistors, could offer unprecedented properties with reduced surface defects after passivating these surfaces by atomic layer deposited (ALD) dielectrics. In this work, the crystallographically oriented epitaxial Ge/AlAs heterostructures were grown and passivated with ALD Al2O3 dielectrics, and the microwave photoconductive decay (u-PCD) technique was employed to evaluate carrier lifetimes at room temperature. The X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy analysis reveals no role of orientation effect in the quality of the ALD Al2O3 dielectric on oriented Ge layers. The carrier lifetimes measured using the u-PCD technique were benchmarked against unpassivated Ge/AlAs heterostructures. Excitation wavelengths of 1500 and 1800 nm with an estimated injection level of ~10^13 cm-3 were selected to measure the orientation-specific carrier lifetimes. The carrier lifetime was increased from 390 ns to 565 ns for (100)Ge and from 260 ns to 440 ns for (110)Ge orientations with passivation, whereas the carrier lifetime is almost unchanged for (111)Ge after passivation. This behavior indicates a strong dependence of the measured lifetime on surface orientation and surface passivation. The observed increase (>1.5x) in lifetime with Al2O3-passivated (100)Ge and (110)Ge surfaces is due to the lower surface recombination velocity compared to unpassivated Ge/AlAs heterostructures. The enhancement of carrier lifetime from passivated Ge/AlAs heterostructures with (100)Ge and (110)Ge surface orientations offers a path for the development of nanoscale transistors due to the reduced interface state density.

Al2O3↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geophysical Signatures of Crack Network Coalescence in Rocks at Multiple Length Scales

The main goal of the research project was to identify the geophysical signatures of fracture growth in natural rocks by utilizing novel geophysical techniques. The research objectives were to (a) investigate the potential for geophysical methods to determine when cracks initiate, the types and locations of propagated cracks, and the coalescence of networks of cracks in natural rocks at multiple scales, (b) determine how damage at the microscale evolved into damage at the macroscale and then link the microscopic and macroscopic observations, (c) quantify crack coalescence in rocks under realistic stress conditions using coupled mechanical-geophysical-optical visualization, and (d) identify the precursors in geophysical signals to crack coalescence. The following research thrusts were explored to achieve the research objectives: (1) uniaxial compression testing of rock specimens with and without a set of pre‐existing flaws and (2) triaxial compression testing of natural rock specimens. These thrusts allowed for exploring fracturing in rocks under realistic in situ environments and at multiple scales. This project provided educational opportunities for nine graduate and undergraduate students and resulted in 27 peer-reviewed publications. This first research thrust focused on investigating the micromechanics of fractures in rocks through uniaxial compression testing combined with advanced geophysical and imaging techniques, specifically acoustic emission (AE) monitoring, ultrasonic imaging, and 2-dimensional Digital Image Correlation (2D-DIC). By examining damage processes under time-independent and time-dependent loading conditions, insights into damage localization, crack initiation, and fracturing mechanisms were gained. It was observed that the AE signals and the strain-based measurements directly reflect the state of damage in the rock specimen and could be used to identify the cracking levels, such as the crack initiation (CI) and crack damage (CD), and the mode of deformation. A novel calibration apparatus was developed to enhance the accuracy of AE sensors, allowing for the estimation of key parameters such as magnitude, source dimension, stress drop, and radiated seismic energy associated with the fractures. The findings highlighted significant variations in the temporal evolution of AE source parameters during the primary, secondary, and tertiary stages of creep, identifying tensile cracking as the primary deformation mode. The second research thrust focused on enhancing the understanding of fracturing processes in natural rocks through triaxial compression testing, real-time AE monitoring, and ultrasonic monitoring. We investigated the impact of various factors such as fracture propagation regimes, injection parameters, rock types, and pre-existing conditions on the hydraulic fracture (HF) behavior using scaled true-triaxially loaded specimens of Barre granite and Lyons sandstone. Custom sensor housing facilitated concurrent active and passive monitoring to analyze hydro-mechanical responses and microseismicity associated with different HF scenarios. A coupled investigation of passive microseismicity and active signal attributes permitted a detailed comprehension of the various HF processes (aseismic deformation, fracture initiation and propagation, fluid permeation, and leak-off) and their dependence on the specific rock type. The findings of this research demonstrated the effectiveness of AE monitoring techniques in providing valuable insights into the impact of various factors on the behavior and dynamics of HF processes. The advancements in monitoring techniques, offering a more thorough and precise approach, represent a significant step towards optimizing HF practices and ensuring sustainable resource extraction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Wind Energy Resource Potential for Future Human Missions to Mars

Energy sustainability and redundancy for surface habitats, life support systems and scientific instrumentation represent one of the highest-priority issues for future crewed missions to Mars. However, power sources utilized for the current class of robotic missions to Mars may be potentially dangerous near human surface habitats (for example, nuclear) or lack stability on diurnal or seasonal timescales (for example, solar) that cannot be easily compensated for by power storage. Here, we evaluate the power potential for wind turbines as an alternative energy resource on the Mars surface. Using a state-of-the-art Mars global climate model, we analyse the total planetary Martian wind potential and calculate its spatial and temporal variability. We find that wind speeds at some proposed landing sites are sufficiently fast to provide a stand-alone or complementary energy source to solar or nuclear power. While several regions show promising wind energy resource potential, other regions of scientific interest can be discarded based on the natural solar and wind energy potential alone. We demonstrate that wind energy compensates for diurnal and seasonal reductions in solar power particularly in regions of scientific merit in the midlatitudes and during regional dust storms. Critically, proposed turbines stabilize power production when combined with solar arrays, increasing the percent time that power exceeds estimated mission requirements from ~40% for solar arrays alone to greater than 60-90% across a broad fraction of the Mars surface. We encourage additional study aimed at advancing wind turbine technology to operate efficiently under Mars conditions and to extract more power from Mars winds.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

HIPED: Machine learning framework for spherical tokamak pedestal prediction and optimization

We introduce a Machine Learning framework, HIPED (HeIght and width Predictor for Edge Dynamics), for predicting and optimizing pedestal and core performance in spherical tokamak plasmas. Trained on pedestal and core datasets from the third MAST-U campaign, HIPED provides accurate estimates of pedestal height and width. The results reveal notable differences compared with conventional aspect-ratio studies; for instance, a simple power-law relation between pedestal width and height has very low accuracy. Instead, additional parameters such as normalized plasma pressure, elongation, and Greenwald fraction significantly improve accuracy. HIPED can also be trained only on `control room parameters' to inform experimentalists of which controllable parameters to adjust for improving core-integrated performance. The framework further includes a multi-objective optimization scheme that helps guide experimental planning and optimization. We find Pareto-optimal discharges with respect to various features, including distance from edge-localized modes and normalized plasma pressure, track their parameter trajectories over time, and identify the control room parameters required for these Pareto-optimal discharges. This provides a framework for systematically optimizing core and edge performance according to different experimental priorities.

Parisi, Jason F. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2022

A System Engineering Approach in the Analysis of Ionic Liquids Properties [Thesis]

Room temperature ionic liquids (RTIL) are ionic compounds, comprised of a cation and anion, in the liquid state at temperatures below 100 ⁰C. There are estimated 10 18 anion and cation combinations, which can create RTILs with unique properties. While the ionic character of RTILs made them attractive in a wide variety of electrochemical applications, their behaviors under electrochemical conditions are not well understood. In this research, we developed a RTIL testbed to investigate how RTILs differ from molecular solvents and electrolytes in electrochemical systems through the study of the effects of their morphology and chemical properties on the electron transfer processes. The test bed is composed of three modules: Electrochemistry, Material characterization, Computational. All modules have been completely developed, verified, and integrated and two of them, i.e., Electrochemistry and Material characterization have been validated in this dissertation. To evaluate the proposed system, experiments were performed on solutions of a redox active species in RTILs. It was found that it is possible to investigate the RTIL's morphology and chemical properties' impact on the electron transfer processes of the solute based on the outcomes and evaluations of tests performed by the RTIL testbed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Modeling Report for CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. MRCSP has been investigating various reservoir characterization and modeling technologies related to Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) in conjunction with carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) operations in multiple Silurian-age (Niagaran), oil-bearing, carbonate pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan, USA. This report provides a comprehensive discussion of reservoir modeling studies that were conducted for tracking oil production, forecasting CO 2 plume migration, and estimating associated storage in a number of reefs that were at different stages of their CO 2 -EOR life cycle. The modeling process for simulating oil production, CO 2 injection, and associated storage in these reefs entails two phases. The first phase, geologic framework modeling, integrates all pertinent geological and geophysical data (from logs, cores and seismic surveys) about reservoir structure, geometry, rock types, and property distributions (porosity, permeability, water saturation) into a 3-D distributed grid-based static earth model (SEM). The second phase, dynamic reservoir modeling, uses the SEM as a platform to simulate the movement of oil, gas, water, and CO 2 within the reservoir during primary hydrocarbon production, as well as during subsequent phases such as CO 2 -injection assisted EOR, plume migration, and associated storage. In addition, an assessment of coupled process effects is also carried out, where the impacts of geochemical and geo-mechanical processed induced by CO 2 injection are studied.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Orbital Inverse Faraday and Cotton-Mouton Effects in Hall Fluids

We report two light-induced orbital magnetization effects in quantum Hall (QH) fluids, stemming from their transverse response. The first is a purely transverse contribution to the inverse Faraday effect (IFE), where circularly polarized light induces a dc magnetization by stirring the charged fluid. This contribution dominates the IFE in the QH regime. The second is the orbital inverse Cotton-Mouton effect (ICME), in which linearly polarized light generates a dc magnetization. Since the applied field in the ICME does not break time-reversal symmetry, the induced magnetization directly probes the chiral orbital response of the fluid at the driving frequency. We estimate that the resulting magnetization lies in the range of 0.5–10 Bohr magnetons per charge carrier in materials such as graphene and transition-metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) in the QH regime. Finally, we show that the induced magnetization is accompanied by a local correction to the static particle density, enabling optical quantum printing of density profiles into the QH fluid.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Repulsive Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid in the quasi-one-dimensional alternating spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ antiferromagnet NaVOPO 4

Here, we probe the magnetic field-induced Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid (TLL) state in the bond-alternating spin1/2 antiferromagnetic (AFM) chain compound NaVOPO 4 using thermodynamic as well as local μSR and 31 P NMR probes down to mK temperatures in magnetic fields up to 14 T. The μSR and NMR relaxation rates in the gapless TLL regime decay slowly following characteristic power-law behavior, enabling us to directly determine the interaction parameter K as a function of the magnetic field. These estimates are crosschecked using magnetization and specific heat data. The field-dependent K lies in the range of 0.4 < K < 1 and indicates the repulsive nature of interactions between the spinless fermions, in line with the theoretical predictions. This renders NaVOPO 4 the first experimental realization of TLL with repulsive fermionic interactions in hitherto studied S = 1/2 bond-alternating AFM-AFM chain compounds.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Static and dynamic properties of the frustrated spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ depleted-kagome antiferromagnet Cu 7 (TeO 3 ) 2 (SO 4 ) 2 (OH) 6

The structural and magnetic properties of the two-dimensional spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ depleted-kagome compound Cu 7 (TeO 3 ) 2 (SO 4 ) 2 (OH) 6 are investigated using x-ray diffraction, magnetization, heat capacity, and 1 H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) measurements. From the analysis of magnetic susceptibility, we found a large Curie-Weiss temperature [𝜃 CW = −50⁢(2)⁢K] and the coexistence of antiferromagnetic and ferromagnetic interactions. The value of 𝜃 CW gives an estimate of the average nearest-neighbor antiferromagnetic interaction of 𝐽/𝑘 B ≃ 66K. The NMR relaxation rates (1/𝑇 1 and 1/𝑇 2 ) exhibit a peak, providing evidence for a magnetic long-range order at 𝑇* ≃ 4K which appears to be canted antiferromagnetic type. Heat capacity also features a broad maximum at 𝑇* that moves towards higher temperatures with increasing magnetic field, reflecting defect induced Schottky anomaly. The frustration parameter 𝑓 𝑟 = |𝜃 CW |/𝑇* ≃ 12.5 renders the compound a highly frustrated low-dimensional magnet.

Akshay, K. U. [Indian Institute of Science Educati↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular Modeling and Molecular Dynamics Simulation of a Packed and Intact Bacterial Microcompartment

Bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) are protein-bound organelles found in some bacteria which encapsulate enzymes for enhanced catalytic activity. These compartments spatially sequester enzymes within semipermeable shell proteins and are packed full of enzyme cargoes and metabolites as they fulfill their function. Coupling together recent SAXS and proteomics work, it is possible to develop molecular models for these microcompartments and interrogate enzyme and metabolite dynamics within. Our primary goal of this study is to quantify the permeability of metabolite glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate (G3P) and dihydroxyacetone phosphate (DHAP) across the BMC shell through classical molecular dynamics simulation. The Haliangium ochraceum model of BMC shell (PDB: 6MZX) was used to model an intact BMC of approximately 10 million atoms. Working at this scale presented its own challenges in managing large data sets, with multiple challenges and hardware advances discussed that facilitated this work. Over approximately 750 ns of aggregate simulation, we see multiple permeation events for these metabolites that were added at high concentration through the pores present within BMC shell tiles. When compared to independent permeability estimates for the same metabolites determined through replica exchange umbrella sampling simulations, the permeabilities varied by approximately 3 orders of magnitude. Regardless, the permeability coefficients for both G3P and DHAP are highly similar and very high, such that only very small concentration gradients can be maintained across the BMC shell between the cytosol and BMC interior. The large simulation systems also facilitated comparisons for molecular diffusivity in the crowded environment within the BMC shell. By our estimates, the viscosity within a packed BMC shell is at least 10-fold higher than it would be in neat solution and is the real driver for varying permeability estimates we obtained through simulation. These findings will be used as design inputs for future bioengineering efforts to make products from BMCs, highlighting how permeable BMC shells can be.

Diffusion↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Impact of Alfvénic Shear Flow on Magnetic Reconnection and Turbulence

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental and omnipresent energy conversion process in plasma physics. Novel observations of fields and particles from Parker Solar Probe (PSP) have shown the absence of reconnection in a large number of current sheets in the near-Sun solar wind. Using near-Sun observations from PSP encounters 4–11 (2020 January–2022 March), we investigate whether reconnection onset might be suppressed by velocity shear. We compare estimates of the tearing mode growth rate in the presence of shear flow for time periods identified as containing reconnecting current sheets versus nonreconnecting times, finding systematically larger growth rates for reconnection periods. Upon examination of the parameters associated with reconnection onset, we find that 85% of the reconnection events are embedded in slow, non-Alfvénic wind streams. We compare with fast, slow non-Alfvénic, and slow Alfvénic streams, finding that the growth rate is suppressed in highly Alfvénic fast and slow wind, and reconnection is not seen in these wind types, as would be expected from our theoretical expressions. These wind streams have strong Alfvénic flow shear, consistent with the idea of reconnection suppression by such flows. This could help explain the frequent absence of reconnection events in the highly Alfvénic, near-Sun solar wind observed by PSP. Finally, we find a steepening of both the trace and magnitude magnetic field spectra within reconnection periods in comparison to ambient wind. We tie this to the dynamics of relatively balanced turbulence within these reconnection periods and the potential generation of compressible fluctuations.

slow solar wind↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of plateau, slope, and valley on soil hydrology during the dry season in a Central Amazon old‐growth forest

Soil moisture regulates plant water supply and drought sensitivity in tropical forests, yet its vertical and topographic variation remains poorly characterized. We combined high-frequency time-domain reflectometry measurements from 5 to 100 cm across plateau, slope, and valley landforms at the Zona Florestal 2 research site north of Manaus, Central Amazonia, to quantify how soil moisture memory, timing of responses to rainfall, dry-down rates (τ), and soil–water depletion vary across these contrasting landforms. Landform-specific soil moisture calibration curves ensured accurate volumetric water content estimates in these highly weathered soils. During the 2023 dry-to-wet transition (August–November), soil moisture memory showed strong topographic contrasts, with valley profiles increasing from ∼47 h at 5 cm to ∼154 h at 100 cm, while plateaus exhibited higher near-surface persistence (∼124 h at 5 cm) but weaker memory at depth. Dry-down behavior reinforced these differences as valley soils exhibited τ values exceeding ∼200 h, more than double the characteristic τ of plateau soils (∼90 h). Rainfall–soil moisture correlations indicated immediate responses at shallow depths in valleys and progressively longer lags with depth on plateaus and slopes. These hydrologic patterns were mirrored in depletion profiles, which declined sharply below 30 cm on plateaus but remained high and sustained throughout the upper meter in slopes and valleys. Together, these findings provide the first depth-resolved field measurements of soil moisture memory, rainfall coupling, dry-down constants, and depletion dynamics across major upland landforms in Central Amazonia and offer clear observational benchmarks for improving land-surface and ecosystem model representations of soil–water processes.

Hillslope↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inverse Mapping of the Collision Kernel and Wall Flux Scaling in a Tall Convection‐Cloud Chamber Using Local Sensors and Knowledge‐Informed Deep Learning

Droplet collision–coalescence is a crucial process in cloud physics, but accurately representing this process under different dynamical conditions remains challenging. A proposed future convective‐cloud chamber aims to investigate this key process, but the method for observing it remains unclear, even though it is theoretically established that collision‐coalescence will occur. This study serves as a proof‐of‐concept demonstration of how knowledge‐informed deep learning, combined with measurement data from local sensors in the chamber, can be used to estimate the collision kernels, which determine how the droplet size distribution evolves during collision‐coalescence. In addition to estimating the collision kernel, we also address wall fluxes, another uncertain but important process that acts as a source of heat and moisture in the chamber. Ensemble runs of large‐eddy simulations are conducted by scaling the wall fluxes and the collision kernel, while the measured flow and cloud properties are used as inputs for a neural network. Results indicate that this approach successfully maps the scaling of wall fluxes and the collision kernel with biases of approximately 1% or less relative to the range of the target data. This proof‐of‐concept lays the groundwork for future applications; when the real measurements are available, real sensor data combined with the trained model presented in this work will enable estimation of the actual wall fluxes and collision kernel.

cloud chamber↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Asymptotic consistency of the WSINDy algorithm in the limit of continuum data

In this work we study the asymptotic consistency of the weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics algorithm (WSINDy) in the identification of differential equations from noisy samples of solutions. We prove that the WSINDy estimator is unconditionally asymptotically consistent for a wide class of models that includes the Navier–Stokes, Kuramoto–Sivashinsky and Sine–Gordon equations. We thus provide a mathematically rigorous explanation for the observed robustness to noise of weak-form equation learning. Conversely, we also show that, in general, the WSINDy estimator is only conditionally asymptotically consistent, yielding discovery of spurious terms with probability one if the noise level exceeds a critical threshold σ c . We provide explicit bounds on σ c in the case of Gaussian white noise and we explicitly characterize the spurious terms that arise in the case of trigonometric and/or polynomial libraries. Furthermore, we show that, if the data is suitably denoised (a simple moving average filter is sufficient), then asymptotic consistency is recovered for models with locally-Lipschitz, polynomial-growth nonlinearities. Our results reveal important aspects of weak-form equation learning, which may be used to improve future algorithms. We demonstrate our findings numerically using the Lorenz system, the cubic oscillator, a viscous Burgers-growth model and a Kuramoto–Sivashinsky-type high-order PDE.

asymptotic consistency↗