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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Review and statistical analysis of the use of ultrasonic velocity for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials

A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semiempirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produces predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis of fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.

Roth, D. J.↗

External-Drag Estimation for Slender Conical Ducted Bodies at High Mach Numbers and Zero Angle of Attack

A method of estimation of the external drag of slender conical ducted bodies at high Mach numbers and zero angle of attack is presented. Charts of the pressure drag computed with the use of characteristics theory and charts of the skin-friction drag evaluated from boundary-layer theory are presented. In addition, some sample plots of the variation of drag characteristics with Mach number and with geometric parameters are presented.

Valentine, E. Floyd↗

Kernel PLS Estimation of Single-trial Event-related Potentials

Nonlinear kernel partial least squaes (KPLS) regressior, is a novel smoothing approach to nonparametric regression curve fitting. We have developed a KPLS approach to the estimation of single-trial event related potentials (ERPs). For improved accuracy of estimation, we also developed a local KPLS method for situations in which there exists prior knowledge about the approximate latency of individual ERP components. To assess the utility of the KPLS approach, we compared non-local KPLS and local KPLS smoothing with other nonparametric signal processing and smoothing methods. In particular, we examined wavelet denoising, smoothing splines, and localized smoothing splines. We applied these methods to the estimation of simulated mixtures of human ERPs and ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) activity using a dipole simulator (BESA). In this scenario we considered ongoing EEG to represent spatially and temporally correlated noise added to the ERPs. This simulation provided a reasonable but simplified model of real-world ERP measurements. For estimation of the simulated single-trial ERPs, local KPLS provided a level of accuracy that was comparable with or better than the other methods. We also applied the local KPLS method to the estimation of human ERPs recorded in an experiment on co,onitive fatigue. For these data, the local KPLS method provided a clear improvement in visualization of single-trial ERPs as well as their averages. The local KPLS method may serve as a new alternative to the estimation of single-trial ERPs and improvement of ERP averages.

Rosipal, Roman↗

Estimation of conjugate gamma and gamma-prime compositions in Ni-base superalloys

To control the formation of unwanted phases, superalloy metallurgists have developed methods of estimating the composition of the matrix phase of alloys. That composition is then used to estimate the alloy's propensity toward sigma and other unwanted phase formations upon prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures in service. This paper reviews two approaches for estimating phase composition from the melt composition. One method is based on assigning essentially fixed stoichiometry to precipitating phases and is typified by 'PHACOMP'. The second method uses analytical geometry to interpret phase diagrams and is shown to be applicable to a two-phase region of a six-component Ni-base system. The geometric method is also shown to be applicable to commercial Ni-base superalloys.

Dreshfield, R. L.↗

A Singular Value Decomposition Framework for Retrievals with Vertical Distribution Information from Greenhouse Gas Column Absorption Spectroscopy Measurements

We describe a variation of the Optimal Estimation (OE) method for greenhouse gas remote sensing retrievals using a singular value decomposition (SVD) and an uninformative prior. The SVD method is capable of discerning vertical information in column integrated absorption measurements. While traditional Bayesian optimal estimation (OE) assumes a prior distribution in order to regularize the inversion problem, the SVD approach identifies principal components that can be retrieved from the measurement without explicitly specifying a prior mean and prior covariance matrix. We discuss the method, illustrate its use on an integrated path differential absorption CO2 lidar measurement model, and compare it to traditional optimal estimation using numerical simulations. In the absence of forward model error, the mathematics behind the SVD method guarantee it to be bias-free, which is confirmed by the numerical simulations. In contrast, traditional OE retrievals exhibit bias when the prior mean used in the retrieval differs from the true mean. While the SVD approach can be used for most trace gas retrievals, it is particularly useful for situations where prior knowledge of the trace gas profile is poor. The SVD analysis is also useful in illustrating how vertical information is treated by the traditional OE approach.

Ramanathan, Anand K.↗

Graphical method for predicting life of a rocket thrust chamber with half-hard zirconium-copper liner and electroformed nickel closeout

A method for estimating the life of a regeneratively cooled rocket thrust chamber was developed and is based on the hot-gas wall temperature and the temperature difference between the hot-gas wall and the outside surface of the closeout. This method permits a quick estimate of the life of a thrust chamber when design changes or test-cycle variations are considered. Strain range and life are presented graphically as functions of these temperature parameters for a typical high-performance rocket thrust chamber with a half-hard zirconium-copper liner and an electroformed nickel closeout.

Kasper, H. J.↗

Optimizing cloud motion estimation on the edge with phase correlation and optical flow

Abstract. Phase correlation (PC) is a well-known method for estimating cloud motion vectors (CMVs) from infrared and visible spectrum images. Commonly, phase shift is computed in the small blocks of the images using the fast Fourier transform. In this study, we investigate the performance and the stability of the blockwise PC method by changing the block size, the frame interval, and combinations of red, green, and blue (RGB) channels from the total sky imager (TSI) at the United States Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility's Southern Great Plains site. We find that shorter frame intervals, followed by larger block sizes, are responsible for stable estimates of the CMV, as suggested by the higher autocorrelations. The choice of RGB channels has a limited effect on the quality of CMVs, and the red and the grayscale images are marginally more reliable than the other combinations during rapidly evolving low-level clouds. The stability of CMVs was tested at different image resolutions with an implementation of the optimized algorithm on the Sage cyberinfrastructure test bed. We find that doubling the frame rate outperforms quadrupling the image resolution in achieving CMV stability. The correlations of CMVs with the wind data are significant in the range of 0.38–0.59 with a 95 % confidence interval, despite the uncertainties and limitations of both datasets. A comparison of the PC method with constructed data and the optical flow method suggests that the post-processing of the vector field has a significant effect on the quality of the CMV. The raindrop-contaminated images can be identified by the rotation of the TSI mirror in the motion field. The results of this study are critical to optimizing algorithms for edge-computing sensor systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of optimal Kalman filter gain from non-optimal filter residuals

This paper presents a novel method of estimating the optimal steady state Kalman filter gain of a linear discrete time-invariant system from a non-optimal Kalman filter residual sequence. The relation between the optimal residual sequence and a signal derived from the non-optimal residual sequence is described by a Moving Average (MA) model whose coefficients are expressed in terms of the state space parameters and the optimal steady state Kalman filter gain. In order to identify the MA model, a whitening filter of the derived signal, which corresponds to an AutoRegressive (AR) model of the signal, is first identified using the least-squares method. Then the inverse filter of the whitening filter, which corresponds to the MA model, is calculated. From the coefficients of the identified MA model, the optimal steady state Kalman filter gain can be obtained. Numerical example is provided to illustrate the feasibility of this approach.

Chen, Chung-Wen↗

Identification of Bare-Airframe Dynamics from Closed-Loop Data Using Multisine Inputs and Frequency Responses

Amethod is presented for computing multiple-input multiple-output frequency responses of bare-airframe dynamics for systems excited using orthogonal phase-optimized multisines and including correlated data arising from control mixing or feedback control. The estimation was posed as the solution to an underdetermined system of linear equations, for which additional information was supplied using interpolation of the frequency responses. A simulation model of the NASA T-2 aircraft having two inputs and two outputs was used to investigate the method in the open-loop configuration and under closed-loop control. The method was also applied to flight test data from the X-56A aeroelastic demonstrator having five inputs and ten outputs and flying under closed-loop control with additional control allocation mixing. Results demonstrated that the proposed method accurately estimates the bare airframe frequency responses in the presence of correlated data from control mixing and feedback control. Results also agreed with estimates obtained using different methods that are less sensitive to correlated inputs.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

An Assessment of Hydropower Potential at National Conduits

In support of the mission of the US Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office to promote domestic next-generation hydropower growth, this study provides a first-of-its-kind assessment of the hydropower development potential on existing water conduits nationwide. This study evaluates the potential for conduit hydropower development in the municipal, agricultural, and industrial sectors across the United States. The research team developed systematic methods to evaluate conduit hydropower capacity potential (MW) and energy generation potential (GWh/year) at four categories of conduits across the United States. They include the following: (1) Water supply pipelines for municipal and industrial uses, (2) Wastewater discharge conduits from municipal and industrial systems, (3) Agricultural water conduits including irrigation canals and ditches in the 17 western states that rely heavily on irrigation, and (4) Thermoelectric power plant cooling water discharge conduits. For each type of conduit, the team developed and implemented a method to estimate hydraulic head and annual water flows—and the hydropower potential—based on analyses of satellite imagery, topography, and existing data sets on water systems and power plants. These methods support a consistent, replicable estimate of conduit hydropower potential across 3 sectors and all 50 states, aggregated at the county and state levels. The assessment was conducted at the reconnaissance level, considering resources that could be available for development at the state and national levels using present-day assumptions about conduit hydropower technology.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Reliability Estimation for One-Shot Devices (Rev. 1)

We present an engineering-oriented summary of statistical methods for estimation of the reliability (or equivalently, failure probability) of one-shot devices such as explosive detonators and other weapon components. Estimates may be given as single points or intervals, based on pass/fail tests, margin analysis, computational models, expert judgment, or a combination of these. We focus on highly reliable devices for which few or no failures are expected to occur in testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prediction of axial-flow instabilities in a turbojet engine by use of a multistage compressor simulation on the digital computer

A method of estimating the undistorted stall line for an axial-flow compressor by using the digital computer is presented. The method involves linearization of nonlinear dynamic equations about an operating point on a speed line, and then application of the first method of Lyapunov to determine the stability of the nonlinear system from the stability of the linear system. The method is applied to a simulation of the J85 compressor, which utilizes stage stacking and lumped volume techniques for the interstage regions to simulate steady-state and dynamic compressor performance. The stability boundary predicted by the digital simulation compares quite well with the stall line predicted by a dynamic simulation of the J85 compressor programmed on the analog computer. Since previous studies have shown that the analog-predicted stall line agrees well with the stall line of the compressor, the digital method presented is also a good means of estimating the stall line.

Daniele, C. J.↗

Measuring greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel of a country’s residents methodological development and application for Sweden

Highlights: • A new method for estimating a country's GHG emissions from international air travel. • A reliable method based on total statistics of departures and on surveys for distance to final destination. • Total emissions for Swedish residents' air travel increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014 • In 2014 Swedish residents air travel emissions was on par with emissions from Swedish car traffic - Abstract: Global civil aviation accounts for 4–5% of total greenhouse gas emissions and these emissions are increasing. In the absence of sufficiently effective global climate instruments, national instruments might be considered as a complement, in which case some way of allocating emissions from international air travel between countries is needed. The purpose of this paper is to develop an accounting method that reflects one country's greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel, and to apply this methodology to Sweden. The new methodology consists of three parts: the number of international air trips made by the country's residents; the average distance of these trips; and the greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km. For Sweden, data for 1990 to 2014 show an increase in the number of trips by Sweden's population of 3.6% per year, resulting in, on average, one international journey (round trip 5800 km) per capita in 2014. The average distance to the final destination has increased only marginally due to simultaneous growth in both long and short trips. However, global average greenhouse gas emissions per passenger km have decreased by 1.9% per year between 1990 and 2014. Because the increase in the number of their trips has outweighed the decrease in emissions per km, the total emissions from Swedish residents' international air travel have increased by 61% between 1990 and 2014. The total emissions from Swedish residents' air travel, including both CO{sub 2} and non-CO{sub 2}-effects, were 11 Mt CO{sub 2} equivalents in 2014, which is the same level as the emissions from Swedish car traffic. This type of reliable data is important when designing policies and for getting public support for new policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In Situ Monitoring of Groundwater Contamination Using the Kalman Filter

This study presents a Kalman filter-based framework to establish a real-time in situ monitoring system for groundwater contamination based on in situ measurable water quality variables, such as specific conductance (SC) and pH. First, this framework uses principal component analysis (PCA) to identify correlations between the contaminant concentrations of interest and in situ measurable variables. It then applies the Kalman filter to estimate contaminant concentrations continuously and in real-time by coupling data-driven concentration-decay models with the previously identified data correlations. We demonstrate our approach with historical groundwater data from the Savannah River Site F-Area: We use SC and pH data to estimate tritium and uranium concentrations over time. Results show that the developed method can estimate these contaminant concentrations based on in situ measurable variables. The estimates remain reliable with less frequent or no direct measurements of the contaminant concentrations, while capturing the dynamics of short- and long-term contaminant concentration changes. In addition, we show that data mining, such as PCA, is useful to understand correlations in groundwater data and to design long-term monitoring systems. As a result, the developed in situ monitoring methodology is expected to improve long-term groundwater monitoring by continuously confirming the contaminant plume's stability and by providing an early warning system for unexpected changes in the plume's migration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a method for optimal maneuver analysis of complex space missions

A system that allows mission planners to find optimal multiple-burn space trajectories easily is described. Previously developed methods with different gravity assumptions perform the optimization function. The power of these programs is extended by a method of costate estimation. A penalty function method of constraining coast arc times to be positive is included. The capability of the method is demonstrated by finding the optimal control for three different space missions. These include a shuttle abort-once-around mission and two- and three-burn geosynchronous satellite-placement missions.

Mcadoo, S. F., Jr.↗

Formulation and implementation of a practical algorithm for non-stationary adaptive state estimation

Background information on the Kalman filter is given first. A discussion of the filter parameters and their a priori determination follows. The discussion points out the need for adaptive determination of the process noise statistics. The filter innovations are presented as a means for developing the adaptive criteria. The criteria center around the estimation of the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of a locally stationary random process is presented. The definition of a local stationarity is presented. Local stationarity allows for the separation of the process statistics into a stationary component and a time-varying component. The separation method is discussed. A method for estimating the stationary and time-varying components is presented. As an example of its application to real problems, the algorithm is applied to the problem to the problem of reentry trajectory estimation for the Space Shuttle. Both the adaptive algorithm and the steady-state Kalman filter are applied to the problem. The results of the reconstructions are presented. The adaptive algorithm exhibits superior performance.

Whitemore, S. A.↗

Error dynamics and relative orbital uncertainty of the Magellan spacecraft

Relative error is discussed in light of a proposed orbiter mission to Venus. It is hypothesized that the relative (position) error of the orbiting spacecraft between disjoint data sets will be large because of residual uncertainties of the absolute estimates and their decorrelation caused by succeeding estimates. A method is proposed to limit relative error by inducing correlations between the estimates on successive data arcs. These correlations are induced by overlapping the data arcs. Covariance analyses of the data sets are undertaken at two distinct mapping times, yielding the relative error between those mapping times. The technique is applied to a mosaicking problem on a specific day in the mission.

Haw, R. J.↗