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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Modelling of E-region auroral winds

A numerical code, describing the interactions between chemistry and dynamics in the coupled thermosphere and ionosphere systems, has been used to investigate the morphology of wind systems of the auroral E-region and, in particular, their response to geomagnetic forcing. The structure and dynamics of both the thermosphere and the ionosphere show very strong interactions at all levels of geomagnetic disturbance. By comparison, other perturbations, particularly those resulting from tidal and gravity wave sources within the lower atmosphere, which are important and easily identified during quiet periods, are always overwhelmed by the magnitude of the effects of large geomagnetic disturbances above about 110 km altitude. The model simulations will be used to characterize the geomagnetic response of the E-region neutral wind, temperature, and composition in different parts of the polar cap and the auroral oval, and the major changes resulting from seasonal variations.

Rees, David↗

Procedures for minimizing the effects of high solar activity on satellite tracking and ephemeris generation

We are currently experiencing a period of high solar radiation combined with wide short-term fluctuations in the radiation. The short-term fluctuations, especially when combined with highly energetic solar flares, can adversely affect the mission of U.S. Space Command's Space Surveillance Center (SSC) which catalogs and tracks the satellites in orbit around the Earth. Rapidly increasing levels of solar electromagnetic and/or particle radiation (solar wind) causes atmospheric warming, which, in turn, causes the upper-most portions of the atmosphere to expand outward, into the regime of low altitude satellites. The increased drag on satellites from this expansion can cause large, unmodeled, in-track displacements, thus undermining the SSC's ability to track and predict satellite position. On 13 March 1989, high solar radiation levels, combined with a high-energy solar flare, caused an exceptional amount of short-term atmospheric warming. The SSC temporarily lost track of over 1300 low altitude satellites--nearly half of the low altitude satellite population. Observational data on satellites that became lost during the days following the 13 March 'solar event' was analyzed and compared with the satellites' last element set prior to the event (referred to as a geomagnetic storm because of the large increase in magnetic flux in the upper atmosphere). The analysis led to a set of procedures for reducing the impact of future geomagnetic storms. These procedures adjust selected software limit parameters in the differential correction of element sets and in the observation association process and must be manually initiated at the onset of a geomagnetic storm. Sensor tasking procedures must be adjusted to ensure that a minimum of four observations per day are received for low altitude satellites. These procedures have been implemented and, thus far, appear to be successful in minimizing the effect of subsequent geomagnetic storms on satellite tracking and ephemeris computation.

Bredvik, Gordon D.↗

Analysis of selected nitric oxide observations in the lower thermosphere by HALOE on UARS

Measurements of nitric oxide mixing ratios have been made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite over an altitude range extending from 15 to 130 km on every spacecraft sunrise and sunset event with the exception of about 8 percent downtime. Selected NO profiles from the first few months of observations were examined with emphasis on the relation between geomagnetic disturbances and enhanced NO in the lower thermosphere. During a large geomagnetic storm on November 8-9, 1991, HALOE obtained 15 NO sunrise profiles along about the 50 deg N latitude circle. A factor of three increase in NO mixing ratio above about 115 km at this latitude and a one to two day decay time were observed. The measured NO longitude/altitude cross section on this day shows a longitudinal asymmetry in the NO distribution with a maximum near the geomagnetic pole. From approximately one month's data, a latitude/altitude cross section of zonal mean NO mixing ratio was calculated. An example of such cross sections demonstrates a strong positive correlation between geomagnetic activity and thermospheric NO globally. This auroral forcing has a larger effect on increasing NO at high latitude than at low latitude.

Luo, Mingzhao↗

Simultaneous solution for core magnetic field and fluid flow beneath an electrically conducting mantle

The effects of laterally homogeneous mantle electrical conductivity were included in steady, frozen-flux core surface flow estimation along with refinements in method and weighting. The refined method allows simultaneous solution for both the initial radial geomagnetic field component at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and the sub-adjacent fluid motion; it also features Gauss' method for solving the non-linear inverse problem associated with steady motional induction. The tradeoff between spatial complexity of the derived flows and misfit to the weighted Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field models (DGRF's) is studied for various mantle conductivity profiles. For simple flow and a fixed initial geomagnetic condition, a fairly high deep-mantle conductivity performs better than either insulating or weakly conducting profiles; however, a thin, very high conductivity layer at the base of the mantle performs almost as well. Simultaneous solution for both initial geomagnetic field and flow reduces the misfit per degree of freedom even more than does changing the mantle conductivity profile. Moreover, when both core field and flow are estimated, the performance of the solutions and the derived flows become insensitive to the conductivity profile.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

Evaluation of semiempirical atmospheric density models for orbit determination applications

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.

Cox, C. M.↗

Simultaneous solution for core magnetic field and fluid flow beneath an electrically conducting mantle

The effects of laterally homogeneous mantle electrical conductivity have been included in steady, frozen-flux core surface flow estimation along with refinements in method and weighting. The refined method allows simultaneous solution for both the initial radial geomagnetic field component at the core-mantle boundary and the subadjacent fluid motion; it also features Gauss' method for solving the nonlinear inverse problem associated with steady motional induction. The trade-off between spatial complexity of the derived flows and misfit to the weighted Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field models is studied for various mantle conductivity profiles. For simple flow and a fixed initial geomagnetic condition a fairly high deep-mantle conductivity performs better than either insulating or weakly conducting profiles; however, a thin, very high conductivity layer at the base of the mantle performs almost as well. Simultaneous solution for both initial geomagnetic field and fluid flow reduces the misfit per degree of freedom even more than does changing the mantle conductivity profile. Moreover, when both core field and flow are estimated, the performance of the solutions and the derived flows become insensitive to the conductivity profile.

Voorhies, Goerte V.↗

Focusing of nonducted whistlers by the equatorial anomaly

Impulsive ELF/VLF electric field bursts observed by the vector electric field instrument (VEFI) on the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite on almost every crossing of the geomagnetic equator in the evening hours are interpreted as originating in lightning discharges. These signals that peak in intensity near the magnetic equator are observed within 5-20 deg latitude of the geomagnetic equator at altitudes of 300-500 km with amplitudes of the order of approximately mV/m in the 512- or 1024-Hz frequency band of the VEFI instrument. Whistler-mode ELF/VLF wave propagation through a horizontally stratified ionosphere predicts strong attenuation of subionospheric signals reaching the equator at low altitudes. However, ray tracing analysis shows that the presence of the equatorial density anomaly, commonly observed in the upper ionosphere during evening hours, leads to the focusing of the wave energy from lightning near the geomagnetic equator at low altitudes, thus accounting for all observed aspects of the phenomenon. The observations presented here indicate that during certain hours in the evening, almost all the energy input from lightning discharges entering the ionosphere at less than 30 deg latitude remains confined to a small region (in altitude and latitude) near the geomagnetic equator. The net wideband electric field, extrapolated from the observed electric field values in the 512- to 1024-Hz band, can be approximately 10 mV/m or higher. These strong electric fields generated in the ionosphere by lightning at local evening times may be important for the equatorial electrodynamics of the ionosphere.

Sonwalkar, Vikas S.↗

Solar Cycle Predictions

We currently lack a comprehensive model for the solar dynamo which might be used for predicting solar cycle activity levels. We can, nonetheless, predict these activity levels with some skill using a variety of techniques based on correlations between activity indicators at different times. A number of the techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time-scale have been tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month by month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the next cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. The combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle of a time well before activity minimum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude can then be used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle supports the idea of extended solar cycle in which the activity cycles overlap. While the current cycle is producing sunspots and active regions in the Sun's equatorial regions the next cycle is already actively influencing the geomagnetic field, The precise nature and source of this influence remains unclear.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

Future Radiation Damage in Space due to South Atlantic Anomaly

Predictions of radiation damage for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites now use semi-empirical models developed from prior satellite data. From these models it is clear that the low field strength of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) controls where the maximum radiation damage occurs. One may make an estimate of future radiation damage to LEO spacecraft if one can predict the future of the SAA. Although reliable maps of the geomagnetic field strength and its secular change have only been made in the last few decades, certain geomagnetic observatories in South America and Africa have recorded the geomagnetic field for a much longer time. These observatories show that the present geomagnetic field change has persisted for more than 100 years. In spite of the fact that a few observatories have shown sudden changes in secular variation, those around the SAA have shown a stable secular variation. Assuming that this will continue for the next 50 to 100 years one can show that the SAA will expand to cover most of the South Atlantic Ocean and will become much weaker. This will greatly intensify the radiation hazard in LEO, put significant new limitations on radiation-hardened hardware, severely restrict the length of time that humans can remain in orbit, and materially change the configuration of the radiation belts.

Heirtzler, J. R.↗

Attitude-Independent Magnetometer Calibration for Spin-Stabilized Spacecraft

The paper describes a three-step estimator to calibrate a Three-Axis Magnetometer (TAM) using TAM and slit Sun or star sensor measurements. In the first step, the Calibration Utility forms a loss function from the residuals of the magnitude of the geomagnetic field. This loss function is minimized with respect to biases, scale factors, and nonorthogonality corrections. The second step minimizes residuals of the projection of the geomagnetic field onto the spin axis under the assumption that spacecraft nutation has been suppressed by a nutation damper. Minimization is done with respect to various directions of the body spin axis in the TAM frame. The direction of the spin axis in the inertial coordinate system required for the residual computation is assumed to be unchanged with time. It is either determined independently using other sensors or included in the estimation parameters. In both cases all estimation parameters can be found using simple analytical formulas derived in the paper. The last step is to minimize a third loss function formed by residuals of the dot product between the geomagnetic field and Sun or star vector with respect to the misalignment angle about the body spin axis. The method is illustrated by calibrating TAM for the Fast Auroral Snapshot Explorer (FAST) using in-flight TAM and Sun sensor data. The estimated parameters include magnetic biases, scale factors, and misalignment angles of the spin axis in the TAM frame. Estimation of the misalignment angle about the spin axis was inconclusive since (at least for the selected time interval) the Sun vector was about 15 degrees from the direction of the spin axis; as a result residuals of the dot product between the geomagnetic field and Sun vectors were to a large extent minimized as a by-product of the second step.

Natanson, Gregory↗

Influence of the Convection Electric Field Models on Predicted Plasmapause Positions During Magnetic Storms

In the present work, we determine how three well documented models of the magnetospheric electric field, and two different mechanisms proposed for the formation of the plasmapause influence the radial distance, the shape and the evolution of the plasmapause during the geomagnetic storms of 28 October 2001 and of 17 April 2002. The convection electric field models considered are: Mcllwain's E51) electric field model, Volland-Stern's model and Weimer's statistical model compiled from low-Earth orbit satellite data. The mechanisms for the formation of the plasmapause to be tested are: (i) the MHD theory where the plasmapause should correspond to the last-closed- equipotential (LCE) or last-closed-streamline (LCS), if the E-field distribution is stationary or time-dependent respectively; (ii) the interchange mechanism where the plasmapause corresponds to streamlines tangent to a Zero-Parallel-Force surface where the field-aligned plasma distribution becomes convectively unstable during enhancements of the E-field intensity in the nightside local time sector. The results of the different time dependent simulations are compared with concomitant EUV observations when available. The plasmatails or plumes observed after both selected geomagnetic storms are predicted in all simulations and for all E-field models. However, their shapes are quite different depending on the E-field models and the mechanisms that are used. Despite the partial success of the simulations to reproduce plumes during magnetic storms and substorms, there remains a long way to go before the detailed structures observed in the EUV observations during periods of geomagnetic activity can be accounted for very precisely by the existing E-field models. Furthermore, it cannot be excluded that the mechanisms currently identified to explain the formation of "Carpenter's knee" during substorm events, will', have to be revised or complemented in the cases of geomagnetic storms.

Pierrard, V.↗

The Relation Between Magnetospheric State Parameters and the Occurrence of Plasma Depletion Events in the Night-Time Mid-Latitude F-Region

Studies using all-sky imagers have revealed the presence of various ionospheric irregularities in the night-time mid-latitude F-region. The most prevalent and well known of these are the Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (MSTIDs) that usually occur when the geomagnetic activity is low, and mid-latitude spread-F plumes that are often observed when the geomagnetic activity is high. The inverse and direct relations between geomagnetic activity (particularly Kp) and the occurrence rate of MSTIDs and midlatitude plumes, respectively, have been observed by several studies using different instruments. In order to understand the underlying causes of these two relations, it is illuminating to better characterize the occurrence of MSTIDs and plumes using multiple magnetospheric state parameters. Here we statistically compare multiple geomagnetic driver and response parameters (such as Kp, AE, Dst, and solar wind parameters) with the occurrence rates of night-time MSTIDs and plumes observed using an all-sky imager at Arecibo Observatory (AO) between 2003 and 2008. The results not only allow us to better distinguish MSTIDs and plumes, but also shed further light on the generation mechanism and electrodynamics of these two different phenomena occurring at night-time in the mid-latitude F-region.

Seker, Ilgin↗

Energetic O+ and H+ Ions in the Plasma Sheet: Implications for the Transport of Ionospheric Ions

The present study statistically examines the characteristics of energetic ions in the plasma sheet using the Geotail/Energetic Particle and Ion Composition data. An emphasis is placed on the O+ ions, and the characteristics of the H+ ions are used as references. The following is a summary of the results. (1) The average O+ energy is lower during solar maximum and higher during solar minimum. A similar tendency is also found for the average H+ energy, but only for geomagnetically active times; (2) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities are several times higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum; (3) The average H+ and O+ energies and the O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities all increase with geomagnetic activity. The differences among different solar phases not only persist but also increase with increasing geomagnetic activity; (4) Whereas the average H+ energy increases toward Earth, the average O+ energy decreases toward Earth. The average energy increases toward dusk for both the H+ and O+ ions; (5) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities increase toward Earth during all solar phases, but most clearly during solar maximum. These results suggest that the solar illumination enhances the ionospheric outflow more effectively with increasing geomagnetic activity and that a significant portion of the O+ ions is transported directly from the ionosphere to the near ]Earth region rather than through the distant tail.

Ohtani, S.↗

Solar Sources of Severe Space Weather

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Geoelectric Hazard Maps for the Continental United States

In support of a multiagency project for assessing induction hazards, we present maps of extreme-value geoelectric amplitudes over about half of the continental United States. These maps are constructed using a parameterization of induction: estimates of Earth surface impedance, obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades of magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having 240 s sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 min that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic activity and Earth surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than 2 orders of magnitude and are an intricate function of location. For north-south induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.26 Vkm; for east-west geomagnetic variation the median value is 0.23 Vkm. At some locations,once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed 3 Vkm.

Love, Jeffrey J.↗

Observation of Chorus Waves by the Van Allen Probes: Dependence on Solar Wind Parameters and Scale Size

Highly energetic electrons in the Earths Van Allen radiation belts can cause serious damage to spacecraft electronic systems and affect the atmospheric composition if they precipitate into the upper atmosphere. Whistler mode chorus waves have attracted significant attention in recent decades for their crucial role in the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons that ultimately change the dynamics of the radiation belts. The distribution of these waves in the inner magnetosphere is commonly presented as a function of geomagnetic activity. However, geomagnetic indices are nonspecific parameters that are compiled from imperfectly covered ground based measurements. The present study uses wave data from the two Van Allen Probes to present the distribution of lower band chorus waves not only as functions of single geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters but also as functions of combined parameters. Also the current study takes advantage of the unique equatorial orbit of the Van Allen Probes to estimate the average scale size of chorus wave packets, during close separations between the two spacecraft, as a function of radial distance, magnetic latitude, and geomagnetic activity, respectively. Results show that the average scale size of chorus wave packets is approximately 13002300 km. The results also show that the inclusion of combined parameters can provide better representation of the chorus wave distributions in the inner magnetosphere and therefore can further improve our knowledge of the acceleration and loss of radiation belt electrons.

Aryan, Homayon↗

CIMI Simulations with Newly Developed Multiparameter Chorus and Plasmaspheric Hiss Wave Models

Numerical simulation studies of the Earth's radiation belts are important to understand the acceleration and loss of energetic electrons. The Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model considers the effects of the ring current and plasmasphere on the radiation belts to obtain plausible results. The CIMI model incorporates pitch angle, energy, and cross diffusion of electrons, due to chorus and plasmaspheric hiss waves. These parameters are calculated using statistical wave distribution models of chorus and plasmaspheric hiss amplitudes. However, currently, these wave distribution models are based only on a single-parameter, geomagnetic index (AE) and could potentially underestimate the wave amplitudes. Here we incorporate recently developed multiparameter chorus and plasmaspheric hiss wave models based on geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters. We then perform CIMI simulations for two geomagnetic storms and compare the flux enhancement of megavolt electrons with data from the Van Allen Probes and Akebono satellites. We show that the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with multiparameter wave models resemble the observations more accurately than the relativistic electron fluxes calculated with single-parameter wave models. This indicates that wave models based on a combination of geomagnetic index and solar wind parameters are more effective as inputs to radiation belt models.

Aryan, Homayon↗

Maryland Space Weather UnderGround (SWUG) Educational Outreach Program for Solar Eclipse Study

Space Weather UnderGround (SWUG) is an educational outreach program that provides hands-on experiences in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) to high school and undergraduate students. It has three ultimate goals: 1. Educating the future STEM workforce. 2. Building a cost-effective, research-capable ground 3. magnetometer array across the United States. Collecting geomagnetic field data at high spatial resolution for heliophysics research. SWUG students build, test, and deploy the Simple Aurora Monitor (SAM)-III kit, purchased by Reeve Engineers. The SAM-III kit is a fluxgate magnetometer that measures geomagnetic field changes at a resolution of 1 nT/sec. Dr. Charles Smith initiated the SWUG program at the University of New Hampshire, and it has since expanded to Alaska and Maryland. This presentation introduces the Maryland SWUG activities. The MD-SWUG program was started in the Fall of 2022 with the goal of deploying magnetometers to the solar eclipse sites in 2023 and 2024. Two student-built magnetometers were deployed to the Southwest Research Institute and the Los Alamos National Laboratory for the 2023 annular solar eclipse, with plans to deploy at least four magnetometers to the 2024 total solar eclipse sites, including the University of Texas at Dallas. During a solar eclipse, reduced solar irradiance weakens ionospheric currents and reduces geomagnetic fields by up to 30 nT at the eclipse sites. A recent study suggested that solar eclipses impact geomagnetic fields not only along the eclipse path but also at their magnetic conjugate locations. The SWUG program will help us understand this electrodynamic coupling between the conjugate locations during a solar eclipse by providing better data coverage along the solar eclipse path.

Hyunju Connor↗