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DOE OSTI2019

Expanding the computational frontier of multi-scale atmospheric simulation to advance understanding of low cloud / climate feedbacks: Final Technical Report

Marine boundary layer clouds are a challenge for climate models. They cover much of the oceans, but they are driven by small-scale turbulent eddies only a few hundred meters across, which in turn respond to the cloud formation. Global climate models have a grid spacing that is far too large to simulate such fluid motions, so they parameterize these cloud formation processes. Different climate modeling groups have designed different parameterizations in which the clouds turn out to be differently sensitive to a warming climate. This drives uncertainties in our best guess at the sensitivity of global warming to greenhouse gas increases. If these cloud-forming eddies could be directly simulated using the well-known equations of fluid motion, they would no longer need to be parameterized, removing a major source of climate modeling uncertainty. In this project, we overcame software engineering challenges to successfully implemented ‘ultraparameterization’ (UP), the first global model that does this, and we tested how well it works. We simulated five-year periods with present-day temperatures and with a warmer climate, and we investigated how the UP-simulated clouds responded to climate – the ‘cloud feedback’ problem. We found little response of clouds at all latitudes to the imposed climate change, which is within the range of predictions of conventional global climate models. UP is a variation on superparameterization, in which small cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are embedded in each column of the global model. In UP, the CRM grid is fine enough (250 m horizontal × 20 m vertical) to explicitly capture boundary-layer turbulent eddies and associated clouds. Because only one small columnar patch is simulated within each climate model grid cell, this is a million-fold more efficient than simulating the entire globe on this same CRM grid., but achieves much of the same effect for the cloud properties. It doesn’t work perfectly. For instance, like conventional climate models, UP simulates too little subtropical stratocumulus cloud, a bias that we are continuing to work to reduce. However, because it directly simulates the turbulent cloud-forming processes, UP is inherently more plausible for simulating how clouds will change in a perturbed climate. In future, we hope to apply UP to another key climate modeling issue: cloud-aerosol interaction and the effect of human-produced aerosols on the climate change we have already experienced and that which is likely to come.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Statistical Study of Solar Particle Events in Flux and Dose

The high-energy protons from solar energetic particle (SEP) events present a hazard to space systems: damage to science instruments/electronics/materials or to astronauts. A reliable estimate of the high-energy proton environment is critical to assure mission success. Important characteristics of an SEP event are fluence, peak flux, energy spectrum, time to reach the peak flux, time to reach peak dose, and properties of the cumulative dose profile after an event starts. All of these characteristics are important to understand in order to design space missions properly for both robotic and human missions. Because of the unpredictable and sporadic nature of SEP events, statistical models are often used to represent the SEP parameters described above. In a study by Jun et al. (2007), the statistics of event fluences, durations, and time intervals between events were investigated using the then available historical SEP dataset obtained from the instruments onboard the IMP-8 spacecraft. Since then, a more comprehensive SEP dataset based off of IMP-8 and GOES called Reference Data Set Version 2.0 (RDSv2.0) has become available covering the SEP events up to Year 2015 under a framework of the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (Jiggens et al., 2018). The main objectives of this statistical study of SEP events are two-fold: First, the statistics of peak fluxes, event fluences, durations, and time intervals will be re-visited by using RDSv2.0; Second, the statistical analyses of flux and dose timing will be performed using the same dataset RDSv2.0. The results of this study will address the statistical properties of all key parameters for designing a spacecraft or a human mission where the SEP environment is an important consideration.

Whitman, K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Results from teleoperated free-flying spacecraft simulations in the Martin Marietta space operations simulator lab

To augment the capabilities of the Space Transportation System, NASA has funded studies and developed programs aimed at developing reusable, remotely piloted spacecraft and satellite servicing systems capable of delivering, retrieving, and servicing payloads at altitudes and inclinations beyond the reach of the present Shuttle Orbiters. Since the mid 1970's, researchers at the Martin Marietta Astronautics Group Space Operations Simulation (SOS) Laboratory have been engaged in investigations of remotely piloted and supervised autonomous spacecraft operations. These investigations were based on high fidelity, real-time simulations and have covered a wide range of human factors issues related to controllability. Among these are: (1) mission conditions, including thruster plume impingements and signal time delays; (2) vehicle performance variables, including control authority, control harmony, minimum impulse, and cross coupling of accelerations; (3) maneuvering task requirements such as target distance and dynamics; (4) control parameters including various control modes and rate/displacement deadbands; and (5) display parameters involving camera placement and function, visual aids, and presentation of operational feedback from the spacecraft. This presentation includes a brief description of the capabilities of the SOS Lab to simulate real-time free-flyer operations using live video, advanced technology ground and on-orbit workstations, and sophisticated computer models of on-orbit spacecraft behavior. Sample results from human factors studies in the five categories cited above are provided.

Hartley, Craig S.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Predicting the Operational Acceptance of Airborne Flight Reroute Requests Using Data Mining

For tools that generate more efficient flight routes or reroute advisories, it is important to ensure compatibility of automation and autonomy decisions with human objectives so as to ensure acceptability by the human operators. In this paper, the authors developed a proof of concept predictor of operational acceptability for route changes during a flight. Such a capability could have applications in automation tools that identify more efficient routes around airspace impacted by weather or congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The predictor is based on applying data mining techniques, including logistic regression, a decision tree, a support vector machine, a random forest and Adaptive Boost, to historical flight plan amendment data reported during operations and field experiments. Cross validation was used for model development, while nested cross validation was used to validate the models. The model found to have the best performance in predicting air traffic controller acceptance or rejection of a route change, using the available data from Fort Worth Air Traffic Control Center and its adjacent Centers, was the random forest, with an F-score of 0.77. This result indicates that the operational acceptance of reroute requests does indeed have some level of predictability, and that, with suitable data, models can be trained to predict the operational acceptability of reroute requests. Such models may ultimately be used to inform route selection by decision support tools, contributing to the development of increasingly autonomous systems that are capable of routing aircraft with less human input than is currently the case.

Operational Acceptability↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS1971

A control-theory model for human decision-making

A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

Levison, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A design procedure for control/display systems

This paper proposes a design procedure for control and display systems in which levels of automation vary over a significant range. The elements of the primary analysis tool (the Optimal Control Model of the Human Operator) are briefly reviewed, and the use of the model at three levels of specification (information level, display-element level, and display-format level) is discussed. Based on observation and pilot commentary, it is assumed that the pilot allocates his attention to control the aircraft to the desired level of performance, and then, with remaining capacity, to monitor displays. This facet of behavior is incorporated into the design procedure so that regardless of the level of control automation, all systems are compared at the same level of control performance. The design procedure is applied to the longitudinal control of a CH-47 helicopter. The procedure points out the need for performance-workload relations for control, which are fairly well understood, and performance-workload relations for monitoring, about which little is known.

Curry, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Evaluating space station applications of automation and robotics technologies from a human productivity point of view

The role that automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence will play in Space Station operations is now beginning to take shape. Although there is only limited data on the precise nature of the payoffs that these technologies are likely to afford there is a general consensus that, at a minimum, the following benefits will be realized: increased responsiveness to innovation, lower operating costs, and reduction of exposure to hazards. Nevertheless, the question arises as to how much automation can be justified with the technical and economic constraints of the program? The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology which can be used to evaluate and rank different approaches to automating the functions and tasks planned for the Space Station. Special attention is given to the impact of advanced automation on human productivity. The methodology employed is based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process. This permits the introduction of individual judgements to resolve the confict that normally arises when incomparable criteria underly the selection process. Because of the large number of factors involved in the model, the overall problem is decomposed into four subproblems individually focusing on human productivity, economics, design, and operations, respectively. The results from each are then combined to yield the final rankings. To demonstrate the methodology, an example is developed based on the selection of an on-orbit assembly system. Five alternatives for performing this task are identified, ranging from an astronaut working in space, to a dexterous manipulator with sensory feedback. Computational results are presented along with their implications. A final parametric analysis shows that the outcome is locally insensitive to all but complete reversals in preference.

Bard, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evidence Report: Risk of Acute and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation Exposure

Possible acute and late risks to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a documented concern for human exploration of space. Acute CNS risks include: altered cognitive function, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, all of which may affect performance and human health. Late CNS risks include neurological disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), dementia and premature aging. Although detrimental CNS changes are observed in humans treated with high-dose radiation (e.g., gamma rays and protons) for cancer and are supported by experimental evidence showing neurocognitive and behavioral effects in animal models, the significance of these results on the morbidity to astronauts has not been elucidated. There is a lack of human epidemiology data on which to base CNS risk estimates; therefore, risk projection based on scaling to human data, as done for cancer risk, is not possible for CNS risks. Research specific to the spaceflight environment using animal and cell models must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of CNS changes in order to estimate this risk and to establish validity of the current permissible exposure limits (PELs). In addition, the impact of radiation exposure in combination with individual sensitivity or other space flight factors, as well as assessment of the need for biological/pharmaceutical countermeasures, will be considered after further definition of CNS risk occurs.

Nelson, Gregory A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (ORION)

NASA uses two HRA assessment methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is still expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a PRA model that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more problematic. In order to determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the assumptions and expectations expressed in the assessments will be needed when the procedures, flight rules and operational requirements are developed and then finalized.

DeMott, Diana L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modeling to Mars: a NASA Model Based Systems Engineering Pathfinder Effort

The NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) Systems Engineering (SE) Technical Discipline Team (TDT) initiated the Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Pathfinder effort in FY16. The goals and objectives of the MBSE Pathfinder include developing and advancing MBSE capability across NASA, applying MBSE to real NASA issues, and capturing issues and opportunities surrounding MBSE. The Pathfinder effort consisted of four teams, with each team addressing a particular focus area. This paper focuses on Pathfinder team 1 with the focus area of architectures and mission campaigns. These efforts covered the timeframe of February 2016 through September 2016. The team was comprised of eight team members from seven NASA Centers (Glenn Research Center, Langley Research Center, Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center IV&V Facility, Johnson Space Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, and Stennis Space Center). Collectively, the team had varying levels of knowledge, skills and expertise in systems engineering and MBSE. The team applied their existing and newly acquired system modeling knowledge and expertise to develop modeling products for a campaign (Program) of crew and cargo missions (Projects) to establish a human presence on Mars utilizing In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). Pathfinder team 1 developed a subset of modeling products that are required for a Program System Requirement Review (SRR)/System Design Review (SDR) and Project Mission Concept Review (MCR)/SRR as defined in NASA Procedural Requirements. Additionally, Team 1 was able to perform and demonstrate some trades and constraint analyses. At the end of these efforts, over twenty lessons learned and recommended next steps have been identified.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Automated Data Analysis in In-Service Nuclear Power Plant Inspections

The commercial nuclear power industry is facing a potential shortage of certified nondestructive evaluation (NDE) analysts to meet future in-service inspection demands. Automated data analysis (ADA) currently supports human inspectors in tasks such as eddy current evaluations for steam generator examinations. Machine learning (ML) systems are nearing the capability to pass performance demonstration tests for ultrasonic testing (UT) inspections of reactor pressure vessel upper head penetrations in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Current research and development is focused on assisted analysis (AA) of ADA versus fully automated examinations. This presentation will cover assessment of ML flaw detection on dissimilar metal weld (DMW) piping joints.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1991

Closed-loop Habitation Air Revitalization Model for Regenerative Life Support Systems

The primary function of any life support system is to keep the crew alive by providing breathable air, potable water, edible food, and for disposal of waste. In a well-balanced or regenerative life support system, the various components are each using what is available and producing what is needed by other components so that there will always be enough chemicals in the form in which they are needed. Humans are not just users, but also one of the participating parts of the system. If a system could continuously recycle the original chemicals, this would make it virtually a Closed-loop Habitation (CH). Some difficulties in trying to create a miniature version of a CH are briefly discussed. In a miniature CH, a minimal structure must be provided and the difference must be made up by artificial parts such as physicochemical systems that perform the conversions that the Earth can achieve naturally. To study the interactions of these parts, a computer model was designed that simulates a miniature CH with emphasis on the air revitalization part. It is called the Closed-loop Habitation Air Revitalization Model (CHARM).

Hart, Maxwell M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Radiation protection using Martian surface materials in human exploration of Mars

To develop materials for shielding astronauts from the hazards of GCR, natural Martian surface materials are considered for their potential as radiation shielding for manned Mars missions. The modified radiation fluences behind various kinds of Martian rocks and regolith are determined by solving the Boltzmann equation using NASA Langley's HZETRN code along with the 1977 Solar Minimum galactic cosmic ray environmental model. To develop structural shielding composite materials for Martian surface habitats, theoretical predictions of the shielding properties of Martian regolith/polyimide composites has been computed to assess their shielding effectiveness. Adding high-performance polymer binders to Martian regolith to enhance structural properties also enhances the shielding properties of these composites because of the added hydrogenous constituents. Heavy ion beam testing of regolith simulant/polyimide composites is planned to validate this prediction. Characterization and proton beam tests are performed to measure structural properties and to compare the shielding effects on microelectronic devices, respectively.

NASA Center LaRC↗

NASA NTRS2014

Signal Processing Methods for Removing the Effects of Whole Body Vibration upon Speech

Humans may be exposed to whole-body vibration in environments where clear speech communications are crucial, particularly during the launch phases of space flight and in high-performance aircraft. Prior research has shown that high levels of vibration cause a decrease in speech intelligibility. However, the effects of whole-body vibration upon speech are not well understood, and no attempt has been made to restore speech distorted by whole-body vibration. In this paper, a model for speech under whole-body vibration is proposed and a method to remove its effect is described. The method described reduces the perceptual effects of vibration, yields higher ASR accuracy scores, and may significantly improve intelligibility. Possible applications include incorporation within communication systems to improve radio-communication systems in environments such a spaceflight, aviation, or off-road vehicle operations.

human response to vibration↗

NASA NTRS1999

Time course of sleep inertia dissipation in human performance and alertness

Alertness and performance on a wide variety of tasks are impaired immediately upon waking from sleep due to sleep inertia, which has been found to dissipate in an asymptotic manner following waketime. It has been suggested that behavioural or environmental factors, as well as sleep stage at awakening, may affect the severity of sleep inertia. In order to determine the time course of sleep inertia dissipation under normal entrained conditions, subjective alertness and cognitive throughput were measured during the first 4 h after habitual waketime from a full 8-h sleep episode on 3 consecutive days. We investigated whether this time course was affected by either sleep stage at awakening or behavioural/environmental factors. Sleep inertia dissipated in an asymptotic manner and took 2-4 h to near the asymptote. Saturating exponential functions fitted the sleep inertia data well, with time constants of 0.67 h for subjective alertness and 1.17 h for cognitive performance. Most awakenings occurred out of stage rapid eye movement (REM), 2 or 1 sleep, and no effect of sleep stage at awakening on either the severity of sleep inertia or the time course of its dissipation could be detected. Subjective alertness and cognitive throughput were significantly impaired upon awakening regardless of whether subjects got out of bed, ate breakfast, showered and were exposed to ordinary indoor room light (approximately 150 lux) or whether subjects participated in a constant routine (CR) protocol in which they remained in bed, ate small hourly snacks and were exposed to very dim light (10-15 lux). These findings allow for the refinement of models of alertness and performance, and have important implications for the scheduling of work immediately upon awakening in many occupational settings.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2018

Spatial modeling of daily concentrations of ground-level ozone in Montreal, Canada: A comparison of geostatistical approaches

Highlights: • The KED model with road and vegetation density as covariates showed good performance for all six synoptic classes. • The model using KED demonstrated the best results (R{sup 2} = 0.92; RMSE = 3.14 ppb). • The model using OK demonstrated a R{sup 2} = 0.85 and RMSE = 4 ppb. • Our results showed that errors appear to be substantially reduced with the KED model. • When measurements at numerous monitoring stations in a region are available, it may be better to use KED. • The BME may be more useful for prediction when data is not available. Ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) is a powerful oxidizing agent and a harmful pollutant affecting human health, forests and crops. Estimating O{sub 3} exposure is a challenge because it exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. The aim in this study was to provide high-resolution maps (100 × 100 m) of O{sub 3} for the metropolitan area of Montreal, Canada. We assessed the kriging with external drift (KED) model to estimate O{sub 3} concentration by synoptic weather classes for 2010. We compared these results with ordinary kriging (OK), and a simple average of 12 monitoring stations. We also compared the estimates obtained for the 2010 summer with those from a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model reported in the literature (Adam-Poupart et al., 2014). The KED model with road and vegetation density as covariates showed good performance for all six synoptic classes (daily R{sup 2} estimates ranging from 0.77 to 0.92 and RMSE from 2.79 to 3.37 ppb). For the summer of 2010, the model using KED demonstrated the best results (R{sup 2} = 0.92; RMSE = 3.14 ppb), followed by the OK model (R{sup 2} = 0.85, RMSE = 4 ppb). Our results showed that errors appear to be substantially reduced with the KED model. This may increase our capacity of linking O{sub 3} levels to health problems by means of improved assessments of ambient exposures. However, future work integrating the temporal dependency in the data is needed to not overstate the performance of the KED model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2007

High-Performance, Radiation-Hardened Electronics for Space Environments

The Radiation Hardened Electronics for Space Environments (RHESE) project endeavors to advance the current state-of-the-art in high-performance, radiation-hardened electronics and processors, ensuring successful performance of space systems required to operate within extreme radiation and temperature environments. Because RHESE is a project within the Exploration Technology Development Program (ETDP), RHESE's primary customers will be the human and robotic missions being developed by NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) in partial fulfillment of the Vision for Space Exploration. Benefits are also anticipated for NASA's science missions to planetary and deep-space destinations. As a technology development effort, RHESE provides a broad-scoped, full spectrum of approaches to environmentally harden space electronics, including new materials, advanced design processes, reconfigurable hardware techniques, and software modeling of the radiation environment. The RHESE sub-project tasks are: SelfReconfigurable Electronics for Extreme Environments, Radiation Effects Predictive Modeling, Radiation Hardened Memory, Single Event Effects (SEE) Immune Reconfigurable Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) (SIRF), Radiation Hardening by Software, Radiation Hardened High Performance Processors (HPP), Reconfigurable Computing, Low Temperature Tolerant MEMS by Design, and Silicon-Germanium (SiGe) Integrated Electronics for Extreme Environments. These nine sub-project tasks are managed by technical leads as located across five different NASA field centers, including Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Langley Research Center, and Marshall Space Flight Center. The overall RHESE integrated project management responsibility resides with NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Initial technology development emphasis within RHESE focuses on the hardening of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA)s and Field Programmable Analog Arrays (FPAA)s for use in reconfigurable architectures. As these component/chip level technologies mature, the RHESE project emphasis shifts to focus on efforts encompassing total processor hardening techniques and board-level electronic reconfiguration techniques featuring spare and interface modularity. This phased approach to distributing emphasis between technology developments provides hardened FPGA/FPAAs for early mission infusion, then migrates to hardened, board-level, high speed processors with associated memory elements and high density storage for the longer duration missions encountered for Lunar Outpost and Mars Exploration occurring later in the Constellation schedule.

Keys, Andrew S.↗