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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Soil Moisture Acttive Passive Mission: Fault Protection Performance and Lessons Learned

Fault protection as a discipline involves a collection of flight software logic and operational processes for detecting unacceptable anomalous behavior, responding prior to reaching criticality, restricting the propagation of a failure beyond a fault containment region, and recovering the vehicle back to full or degraded functionality if possible. The System Fault Protection (SFP) design for the SMAP Earth orbiter was put to the test during its 90-day vehicle commissioning activities. During this time, the SFP software autonomously protected the vehicle from multiple faults to critical hardware, and the operations team successfully returned the observatory to its science state. The SFP also performed well in the presence of anomalous behavior below true safety limits by not taking unnecessary response actions, instead allowing the operations team time to monitor the behavior. Certain aspects of the SFP design were modified during operations via both parameter updates and a full flight software update in order to better match the vehicle behavior in the flight environment. An evaluation of the SMAP SFP performance during vehicle Commissioning will be provided in this paper, as well as a set of lessons learned largely focused on visibility, SFP mutability in operations, responses to peripheral device faults, and Safe Mode recovery and design. By capturing some of the knowledge gained during SMAP Commissioning, it is intended that this paper provide guidance for making future System Fault Protection designs more robust and supportive of operations.

Clark, Jessica↗

NASA's Biosentinel Mission: Lessons Learned and What's Next

In the last two years, two BioSentinel payloads were launched to space. The ISS mission launched in December 2021, and returned to the ground in August 2022 after successfully completing eight biological experiments while validating the different instruments. On the other hand, the deep space mission launched onboard Artemis I in November 2022, and is currently in a heliocentric orbit over 20 million kilometers away from the Earth. Even though all hardware subsystems were validated in deep space, the microfluidic subsystems experienced anomalies throughout the initial 6-month mission. The main goals of this presentation are (1) to present flight data from the deep space payload, including biology, fluidics, electronics, data processing, and mission operations, and (2) to discuss the lessons learned – what worked and what did not – from this unique complex mission, and how these lessons are aiding in the development of the Lunar Exploration Instrument for space biology Applications (LEIA) mission, launching to the lunar surface on a commercial lander in 2026. As of the writing of this abstract, the satellite continues to work nominally, communicating to Earth via the Deep Space Network (DSN) twice per week. Importantly, the mission received and extension to continue recording data on the deep space radiation environment on its way to solar maximum (i.e., higher probability of solar particle events). BioSentinel is supported by NASA Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate (ESDMD).

BioSentinel↗

Using rewards and penalties to obtain desired subject performance

Operant conditioning procedures, specifically the use of negative reinforcement, in achieving stable learning behavior is described. The critical tracking test (CTT) a method of detecting human operator impairment was tested. A pass level is set for each subject, based on that subject's asymptotic skill level while sober. It is critical that complete training take place before the individualized pass level is set in order that the impairment can be detected. The results provide a more general basis for the application of reward/penalty structures in manual control research.

Cook, M.↗

Knowledge acquisition and representation for the Systems Test and Operations Language (STOL) Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS)

This presentation concentrates on knowledge acquisition and its application to the development of an expert module and a user interface for an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS). The Systems Test and Operations Language (STOL) ITS is being developed to assist NASA control center personnel in learning a command and control language as it is used in mission operations rooms. The objective of the tutor is to impart knowledge and skills that will permit the trainee to solve command and control problems in the same way that the STOL expert solves those problems. The STOL ITS will achieve this object by representing the solution space in such a way that the trainee can visualize the intermediate steps, and by having the expert module production rules parallel the STOL expert's knowledge structures.

Seamster, Thomas L.↗

The Moon as a Stepping Stone to Human Mars Missions

Human space mission designers stretching back to von Braun and beyond have envisioned the moon as a waypoint to the more challenging missions to Mars. The moon is seen as a potential proving ground for technologies, equipment and operations, and a venue upon which to learn the art of surface exploration. Mars missions are years in duration with very limited Earth return opportunities, but the moon provides the opportunity to perfect exploration concepts while being only a few days from Earth. Though the environment and gravity differ from Mars, and will thereby not provide a perfectly analogous environment, the remoteness, limited logistics, and harsh conditions on the Moon provide an environment that can be used to stress many systems that will be used or will be extensible to hardware and operations that will be used on Mars. This paper begins by describing the systems, or options for systems, that together comprise a human Mars architecture. With this human Mars operational concept as a basis of comparison, each of these systems is analyzed in the context of a range of potential exploration missions that first targets lunar exploration experience, examining how the lunar experience can be best used to prepare for the eventual human mission to Mars. The paper concludes with a concise summary of specific areas that have the strongest applicability between exploration experience on the lunar surface and extensibility to human Mars exploration.

Connolly, John F.↗

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗

Machine Learning Enabled Quantitative Risk Assessment of Aerial Wildfire Response

Aerial wildfire operations are high risk and account for a large number of firefighter deaths. Increasing intensity of wildfires is driving a surge in aerial operations, while simultaneously there is growing interest in improving system safety and performance. In this work, wildfire aviation mishaps documented using the SAFECOM system are analyzed using a previously developed framework for hazard extraction and analysis of trends (HEAT). Hazards and specific failure modes are extracted from the narrative data in SAFECOM forms using natural language processing techniques. Metrics for each hazard are calculated, including frequency, rate, and severity. We examine whether these metrics change over time, and whether they are related to metadata, such as region and aircraft type. The results of the hazard analysis are presented in a risk matrix, identifying the highest and lowest risk hazards based on rate of occurrence and average severity. Results identify jumper operations hazards as high-risk, in addition to bucket drop failures, cargo let down failures, and severe weather as medium risk.

machine learning↗

NASA’s Digital Information Platform to Accelerate the Transformation of the National Airspace System

In order to accelerate the digital transformation of airspace operations, a foundational framework and infrastructure for providing sustainable, data-driven, and cohesive decision-making digital services for both traditional and emergent air vehicles is being developed. The reference implementation of Digital Information Platform builds an ecosystem for the aviation community by providing access to a secure and trusted source of aviation data and services. Several key features and services have been implemented to enable secure data sharing, communication, and service registration on the Platform. The technical approach used to implement these features is presented here. NASA-developed integrated aviation data and machine learning based prediction services to optimize airspace operations are available on the Platform. These services are being evaluated in an operational environment by flight operators and the real-world benefits are being captured. The Platform fosters collaboration among industry and researchers to develop complex aviation services and the aim is to make it publicly accessible for consumption by the aviation community.

Digital Transformation↗

NASA’s Digital Information Platform to Accelerate the Transformation of the National Airspace System

In order to accelerate the digital transformation of airspace operations, a foundational framework and infrastructure for providing sustainable, data-driven, and cohesive decision-making digital services for both traditional and emergent air vehicles is being developed. The reference implementation of Digital Information Platform builds an ecosystem for the aviation community by providing access to a secure and trusted source of aviation data and services. Several key features and services have been implemented to enable secure data sharing, communication, and service registration on the Platform. The technical approach used to implement these features is presented here. NASA-developed integrated aviation data and machine learning based prediction services to optimize airspace operations are available on the Platform. These services are being evaluated in an operational environment by flight operators and the real-world benefits are being captured. The Platform fosters collaboration among industry and researchers to develop complex aviation services and the aim is to make it publicly accessible for consumption by the aviation community.

Digital Transformation↗

Lessons Learned from Recent Testing in the Nuclear Thermal Rocket Element Environmental Simulator

The Nuclear Thermal Rocket Element Environmental Simulator (NTREES) facility is designed to perform realistic non-nuclear testing of nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) fuel elements and fuel materials. Although the NTREES facility cannot reproduce the neutron and gamma environment of an operating NTR, it can simulate the thermal hydraulic environment within an NTR fuel element to provide critical information on material performance and compatibility. The NTREES facility is currently being reconfigured with an all new suite of pyrometers, a new coil and feedthrough design along with a new gas sampling system for the mass spectrometer. Also new is the ability to perform chamber purges using argon. All of these modifications are the result of experiences gained through several years of testing various NTR components under a wide range of operating conditions. The testing details and the lessons learned from those tests are discussed in this presentation.

Emrich, William J., Jr.↗

How Autonomous Intelligent Systems Can Facilitate Earth-independent Medical Care: Going Beyond Telepresence

During the last decade, teleoperated robotic systems have extended humans’ sensorimotor competence to digitally fly beyond the physical barrier of distance and scale and thus transmit sensorimotor skills of the human through direct communication. Telepresence capabilities have enabled tele-physical remote access at small scales thanks to telerobotic mediums. Although the concept was initially motivated by space applications, such technologies quickly have expanded into the medical domain and resulted in teleoperated medical robots, including telerobotic surgical systems (such as the da Vinci surgical system). Effective telepresence fundamentally depends on an agile, reliable, and secure communication medium that can transmit real-time information between the operator and a remote device. However, direct telepresence may not be achievable for long-duration exploration spaceflight missions. Thus, autonomous systems and local intelligence represent potential solutions to the aforementioned issues. One example solution employs demonstration systems which enable learning from the pre-captured inputs of a skilled human operator. These will be computationally modeled and later probabilistically replicated toward the completion of remote physical tasks when direct telepresence is not viable - such as under communication blackout conditions. In other words, trained autonomous systems (e.g., robots) can perform remote operations that mimic the physical performance of experts during remote operations/training. Beyond learning the physics of the task, autonomous agents can also be used to conduct algorithmic decision-making that mimics the higher-level cognition of the expert. Thus, using an autonomous system, pre-trained cognitive and manipulation-based skills can be leveraged (acquired during pre-mission events) to produce digital twins of an intelligent operator. Such systems can be used for the real-time conduction of intricate tasks in complex and unstructured environments. Such systems will operationalize “cognitive digital twins” and can expand the reach of human cognition and manipulation through the power of data-driven learning from demonstration algorithms. This system category will be discussed as a fully autonomous operation in this talk. In addition to the above, we will also propose and discuss the possibility of partial-automation using remote intelligence and remote sensing. In contrast to full automation, partial automation can close the loop through a local operator equipped with augmented sensory awareness through wearable systems. Such technologies will allow the local operator to conduct delicate tasks while being guided using sensory augmentation and being monitored to gauge her/his level of cognitive focus and performance. The difference with the previous category is that a remote human will conduct the task. Further, rather than making a digital twin of human cognition, we will augment the control inputs of the local human to match those of the skilled expert operator who is not accessible in real-time. Going beyond classic telepresence and thus approaching intelligent telepresence, our vision is that autonomous agents will eventually enable the safe, consistent and efficient delivery of complex, remote and smart medical care during space exploration across operators in an Earth-independent fashion. We will discuss our collective vision from NASA and MERIIT@NYU lab in this talk.

Telepresence↗

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Autotuning of Double-Dot Devices In Situ with Machine Learning

The current practice of manually tuning quantum dots (QDs) for qubit operation is a relatively time-consuming procedure that is inherently impractical for scaling up and applications. In this work, we report on the in situ implementation of a recently proposed autotuning protocol that combines machine learning (ML) with an optimization routine to navigate the parameter space. In particular, we show that a ML algorithm trained using exclusively simulated data to quantitatively classify the state of a double-QD device can be used to replace human heuristics in the tuning of gate voltages in real devices. Here, we demonstrate active feedback of a functional double-dot device operated at millikelvin temperatures and discuss success rates as a function of the initial conditions and the device performance. Modifications to the training network, fitness function, and optimizer are discussed as a path toward further improvement in the success rate when starting both near and far detuned from the target double-dot range.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Overview of SMART Initiative

The objective of the SMART Initiative, i.e., Science-informed Machine Learning (ML) for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications, is to show how the utilization of ML can significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of field-scale commercial carbon storage operations in three main areas: real-time visualization, virtual learning, and real-time forecasting. This presentation reports the status of SMART initiative for demonstrating: (a) virtual learning during the pre-injection permitting phase, and (b) ML-assisted operational decision making and visualization.

Siriwardane, Hema↗