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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modeling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) specialists within the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences branch at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modelling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) group at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Benchmarking of Climate Models: Methodologies, Applications, and New Directions

As climate models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need to comprehensively and systematically assess model performance with respect to observations. Given the increasing number and diversity of climate model simulations in use, the community has moved beyond simple model intercomparison and toward developing methods capable of benchmarking a large number of simulations against a suite of climate metrics. Here, we present a detailed review of evaluation and benchmarking methods and approaches developed in the last decade, focusing primarily on scientific implications for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations and CMIP6 results that contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Based on this review, we explain the resulting contemporary philosophy of model benchmarking, and provide clear distinctions and definitions of the terms model verification, process validation, evaluation, and benchmarking. While significant progress has been made in model development based on systematic evaluation and benchmarking efforts, some climate system biases still remain. The development of open‐source community software packages has played a fundamental role in identifying areas of significant model improvement and bias reduction. We review the key features of several software packages that have been commonly used over the past decade to evaluate and benchmark global and regional climate models. Additionally, we discuss best practices for the selection of evaluation and benchmarking metrics and for interpreting the obtained results, the importance of selecting suitable sources of reference data and accurate uncertainty quantification.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Validation of an Algorithm for Combined Soiling and Degradation Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems

We describe and demonstrate an open-source algorithm for simultaneously quantifying degradation and soiling of photovoltaic (PV) systems from energy-production time series data. The new analysis is based on year-on-year degradation rate analysis combined with stochastic rate and recovery soiling analysis. The algorithm is designed to fit into the workflow provided by RdTools, a Python module maintained by NREL and collaboratively developed with the community, which provides a framework and functions for degradation and loss-factor analysis of PV field data. We demonstrate the method on numerically simulated PV data sets and show that it reduces the root-mean-square error of the P50 degradation rate estimate when soiling is present.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines

Background: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. Methods and findings: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. Conclusions: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Scaling aircraft noise perception.

Following a brief review of the background to the study, an extensive experiment is described which was undertaken to assess the practical differences between numerous alternative methods for calculating the perceived levels of individual aircraft flyover wounds. One hundred and twenty recorded sounds, including jets, turboprops, piston aircraft and helicopters were rated by a panel of subjects in a pair comparison test. The results were analyzed to evaluate a number of noise rating procedures, in terms of their ability to accurately estimate both relative and absolute perceived noise levels over a wider dynamic range (84-115 dB SPL) than had generally been used in previous experiments. Performances of the different scales were examined in detail for different aircraft categories, and the merits of different band level summation procedures, frequency weighting functions, duration and tone corrections were investigated.

Ollerhead, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Recommendations for the performance rating of flat plate terrestrial photovoltaic solar panels

A review of recommendations for standardizing the performance rating of flat plate terrestrial solar panels is given to develop an international standard code of practice for performance rating. Required data to characterize the performance of a solar panel are listed. Other items discussed are: (1) basic measurement procedures; (2) performance measurement in natural sunlight and simulated sunlight; (3) standard solar cells; (4) the normal incidence method; (5) global method and (6) definition of peak power.

Treble, F. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An analytical comparison of two wing structures for Mach 5 cruise airplanes

Mach 5 cruise research conducted by NASA is related to aerodynamics, propulsion, and structures. The study of structures includes the propulsion system, fuselage, and wings. Various studies have shown that the achievement of adequate range is largely dependent on a low structural mass fraction. The present investigation is concerned with a study of two wing structure configurations for Mach 5 aircraft. An uprated version (Ti-6242 replacing B-120 titanium) of the YF-12/SR-71 wing structure is considered. The B-120 titanium structure represents the current art of high speed aircraft wing structures. The YF-12 wing structure was designed about 20 years ago when the analytical methods for calculating thermal stresses were limited. The second wing structural configuration studied in the present investigation also used Ti-6242 materials but replaced the corrugated-beaded panels with diffusion bonded honeycomb-core sandwich panels, and replaced the z-stiffened shear webs with sine-wave stiffened shear webs.

Taylor, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Micro-Satellite Impact Tests to Investigate Multi-Layer Insulation Fragments

This paper summarizes two satellite impact experiments completed in 2008. The objective of the experiments is to investigate the physical properties of satellite fragments, including those originated from Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) and solar panels. The ultimate goal is to use the results to improve the NASA Standard Breakup Model. The targets were two cubic micro-satellites, 20 cm by 20 cm by 20 cm in size, and approximately 1,500 g in mass. The main structure of each micro-satellite was composed of five layers; the top and bottom layers and three internal layers parallel to the top and bottom layers, plus four side panels. The top layer was equipped with solar cells that was mounted to an aluminum honeycomb sandwich panel with CFRP face sheets. The four side panels and the bottom layer are all covered with MLI. The two satellite impact experiments were conducted using the two-stage light gas gun at the Kyushu Institute of Technology in Kitakyusyu, Japan. For the first experiment (labeled Shot F), the satellite was oriented in such a way that the solar panel was facing the incoming projectile, a 39.3 g aluminum alloy solid sphere. For the second experiment (labeled Shot R), the satellite was oriented so that the solar panel was on the opposite side of the impact surface. The projectile used in the second shot was a 39.2 g aluminum alloy solid sphere. The impact speeds of Shot F and Shot R were 1.74 km/s and 1.78 km/s, respectively. The ratio of the impact kinetic energy to satellite mass for the two experiments was about 40 J/g. Both target satellites were completely fragmented, although there were noticeable differences in the characteristics of the fragments. Approximately 1,800 fragments were collected from Shot F but only 1,000 fragments were collected from Shot R. This difference primarily comes from the number of needle-like CFRP and MLI fragments. The difference in CFRP pieces depends on how the CFRP panels were fragmented. Regarding the MLI pieces, a significant difference in size and number can be observed. The largest MLI pieces in Shot F are almost of the same size as the side panels, whereas those in Shot R are larger by about a factor of two. The collected fragments and MLI pieces will be measured and analyzed using the same method as described in the NASA Standard Breakup Model. This paper will present: (1) the area-to-mass ratio, size, and mass distributions of the fragments, and (2) the differences in fragment properties between Shot F and Shot R.

Liou, J.C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Ground Testing Program to Verify Lunar Dust-Tolerant Hardware for the Artemis Mission

In preparation for NASA’s Artemis Mission that will return humans to the surface of moon by 2024, an extensive test campaign will be undertaken to understand the effects of lunar dust contamination on equipment. Historically, early Apollo astronauts were affected by lunar dust that entered the cabin after their extravehicular activities, and subsequent missions had various cleaning protocols to reduce the impact of the contamination. The longest stays on the lunar surface were Apollo 15, 16, and 17 (just over three days), so equipment and suits were required to operate reliably for a relatively short duration. The ultimate goal of Artemis is a sustained human presence on the lunar surface, beginning with Artemis 3 which targets a six-and-a-half day surface deployment. This requires the design and testing of dust-tolerant infrastructure. Ground testing with aerosolized lunar dust simulants in a specialized chamber is an inexpensive way to verify the performance of equipment. Chambers equipped with various powder dispersers and analysis instrumentation can explore a variety of realistic scenarios relevant to lunar surface missions, from the interaction of dust with sensitive surfaces such as solar panels, textiles, radiators, and scientific equipment, to the effects of dust as it intrudes into habitable areas. These experiments require careful consideration of the expected mass concentrations, aerosolization methods, and transport properties of dust. Instruments that use light-scattering techniques to measure mass concentrations require calibration against lunar simulants for improved accuracy, and different simulants may have different calibration factors. Test facilities, laboratory setup and test methods for aerosolizing lunar simulant will be described along with relevant aerosol instruments and calibration efforts.

Benjamin J Sumlin↗
NASA NTRS2022

A review of Carbon Monitoring in Wet Carbon Systems using Remote Sensing

Carbon monitoring is critical for the reporting and verification of carbon stocks and change. Remote sensing is a tool increasingly used to estimate the spatial heterogeneity, extent and change of carbon stocks within and across various systems. We designate the use of the term wet carbon system to the interconnected wetlands, ocean, river and streams, lakes and ponds, and permafrost, which are carbon-dense and vital conduits for carbon throughout the terrestrial and aquatic sections of the carbon cycle. We reviewed wet carbon monitoring studies that utilize earth observation to improve our knowledge of data gaps, methods, and future research recommendations. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review collecting 1,622 references and screening them with a combination of text matching and a panel of three experts. The search found 496 references, with an additional 78 references added by experts. Our study found considerable variability of the utilization of remote sensing and global wet carbon monitoring progress across the nine systems analyzed. The review highlighted that remote sensing is routinely used to globally map carbon in mangroves and oceans, whereas seagrass, terrestrial wetlands, tidal marshes, rivers, and permafrost would benefit from more accurate and comprehensive global maps of extent. We identified three critical gaps and twelve recommendations to continue progressing wet carbon systems and increase cross system scientific inquiry.

Anthony D. Campbell↗
NASA NTRS2018

Optimization of Thin-Film Solar Cells for Lunar Surface Operations

Thin-film solar cells have been in production for decades, but technology has only recently advanced enough to allow for comparable efficiencies to traditional rigid cells. Some of the benefits of thin-films, such as lighter weight and being foldable, are particularly advantageous to space applications since mass and volume are key considerations of any flight project. Using these thin-film cells in space, however, is outside of their ground-based design criteria. This requires special care to be taken in designing the power generation system of a spacecraft around a thin-film solar cell, particularly in regards to thermal management. Without the diffusion of an atmosphere to mitigate solar load, the temperature of the panels can rapidly exceed their design specification. In this paper a design solution is presented that allows for thin-film solar cells to be used in a robotic lunar lander. Due to the low thermal mass and in-plane conductivity of thin films, it is difficult to remove waste heat by any other method than radiation. On the lunar surface this means angling the arrays to increase their view factor to space, which has the negative consequence of decreasing their power generation. An optimization was developed to balance the heat rejection and power generation of the cells, using constraints on the maximum cell temperature and minimum spacecraft power requirements. The resulting solar panel angle was then used as an input to the Thermal Desktop model to verify the final panel temperatures.

Breeding, Shawn↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Eddy Current Case Study using NASA’s Transfer Function and Limited-Sample Probability of Detection Guidebooks

Probability of detection (POD) requirements for NASA fracture-critical human-rated systems can be met by (1) claiming ‘similarity’ to NASA Standard Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) flaw sizes or (2) by inspector-specific POD demonstration, known as NASA Special NDE. Standard NDE flaw sizes are intended to represent the detection capability of most qualified inspectors, and were primarily based on POD studies in the development of the Space Shuttle Program Orbiter fracture control plan. However, these Standard NDE flaw sizes were based on fatigue cracks in flat panels of one material alloy over a limited range of panel thicknesses. While the POD study was comprehensive, the inspection conditions are relatively narrow. An evaluation of similarity between the Standard NDE POD study and flight component conditions is required to apply Standard NDE to specific flight component inspections. A similarity evaluation may include differences in materials, surface finish, component geometry (e.g., curvature, corners, welds), and inspection access. Similarity is typically based on a qualitative engineering evaluation. Recently, NASA published a quantitative methodology to assess similarity. If similarity is not supported by test and analysis, then the methodology provides a transfer function of flaw size for Special NDE POD demonstration. NASA recommends that Special POD demonstrations use flaws that are flight-like or more difficult to detect than flight component flaws, which are commonly induced fatigue cracks. Often, it is not feasible to induce fatigue cracks in flight component geometry, and therefore, a simpler representative geometry is used, commonly a flat panel, for POD demonstration. Inducing cracks in simple geometry specimens can be time-consuming and expensive, and thus, minimizing the number of flawed specimens is desired. Traditionally, NASA Special NDE demonstration was limited to MIL-HDBK-1823A methods or the binomial point-estimate method (PEM), commonly known as 29/29. Recently, NASA published a limited-sample POD (LS-POD) methodology for signal-response NDE techniques (e.g., eddy current) that provides POD demonstration with fewer specimens than previous approaches. LS-POD suggests a minimum of 10 flawed specimens, compared to 29 in the PEM and the suggested minimum of 40 from MIL-HDBK-1823A. The methodology also includes new guidance on evaluating the probability of false calls. In this presentation, these new transfer function and LS-POD methodologies are described and illustrated through an eddy current detection capability of far-side flaws on thin welded panels. A geometry-based transfer function is developed using electro-discharge machined (EDM) notches in flight component and simple geometry to estimate the Special NDE flaw size that is representative of the critical initial flaw size required by the fracture analysis. Then, fatigue cracks are induced in simple flat panels of the transferred flaw size, and the LS-POD methodology is used for Special NDE demonstration.

P. A. Parker↗
NASA NTRS1979

A three-dimensional viscous/potential flow interaction analysis method for multi-element wings: Modifications to the potential flow code to allow part-span, high-lift devices and close-interference calculations

The description of the modified code includes details of a doublet subpanel technique in which panels that are close to a velocity calculation point are replaced by a subpanel set. This treatment gives the effect of a higher panel density without increasing the number of unknowns. In particular, the technique removes the close approach problem of the earlier singularity model in which distortions occur in the detailed pressure calculation near panel corners. Removal of this problem allowed a complete wake relaxation and roll-up iterative procedure to be installed in the code. The geometry package developed for the new technique and also for the more general configurations is based on a multiple patch scheme. Each patch has a regular array of panels, but arbitrary relationships are allowed between neighboring panels at the edges of adjacent patches. This provides great versatility for treating general configurations.

Maskew, B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lab Evaluation of Downward Capacity of Radiant Ceiling Panel Systems

This project investigated the cooling delivery effectiveness of radiant ceiling panels as a function of attic insulation level using multiple laboratory testing and analytical methodologies. Delivery effectiveness is the heating or cooling energy delivered to a conditioned space divided by the total heating or cooling energy added or removed by the space conditioning system. The lower the losses of the heating or cooling delivery method, the higher the delivery effectiveness. For ducted systems, delivery effectiveness is reduced by both air leakage and thermal losses (especially if the ducts are installed in attics), while the delivery effectiveness of a radiant system supplied by hot and cold water is only reduced by thermal losses, which can be mitigated by sufficient insulation above, or at the "back" of the panel. Being installed at or below the ceiling plane, sufficient back insulation should be provided by default in the form of the attic insulation above the radiant ceiling panels. Site-built radiant ceiling panels were evaluated at Frontier Energy’s Building Science Research Laboratory (BSRL) in a uniquely designed environmental test chamber with independently controllable indoor and attic spaces and a height-adjustable ceiling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ Detection of Process-Induced Porosity During Cure of Out-of-Autoclave Composites

Composite materials offer unique benefits in aerospace applications and are becoming increasingly used by industry manufacturers. Current manufacturing and processing methods can lead to defects in the composites, which are identified after fabrication using inspection methods.This study utilized a high-temperature ultrasonic inspection system to detect process-induced porosity in an out-of-autoclave (OOA) composite panel. An ultrasonic scanner was enclosed in a nitrogen-cooled insulating box that prevented thermal damage from the industrial oven to the temperature-sensitive electronics. Inspection of the composite part was performed through the bottom of the enclosure, which served as the tool plate for the part. In this study, a porosity gradient was introduced through a misfit of the part and caul plate. Using the data obtained from B-scans and amplitude C-scans throughout the cure cycle, the high and low porosity regions within the composite laminate were detected and localized. OOA tests aided the transition of this system to an autoclave, which is the primary method of curing aerospace-grade thermoset composites.

In-process, Defect Detection, Cure Monitoring, Por↗
NASA NTRS1964

A Study of the Effectiveness of Various Methods of Vibration Reduction on Simplified Scale Models of the Nimbus Spacecraft

The results of an experimental investigation of the effectiveness of various isolation and damping methods in reducing the dynamic response of simplified scaled models of the Nimbus spacecraft to vibratory inputs are presented. Experimental mode shapes and natural frequencies of the simulated solar panels were determined and found to compare well with calculated values. Appreciable reductions of structural responses to vibratory-input motions were measured for independent inputs along the roll, pitch, and yaw axes for the cases in which distributed damping and/or isolation was utilized. A comparison of the response of the model with the full-scale spacecraft for inputs along the pitch axis is presented. Also included are the effects of stiffness between the control and sensory sections on the response of the model to vibratory inputs.

NIMBUS SATELLITE↗
NASA NTRS1977

Effects of inviscid parallel shear flows on steady and unsteady aerodynamics and flutter

A general theory of planar disturbances in inviscid parallel shear flows, analogous to thin-wing theory in potential flows, has been developed. Integral relations between surface pressure and deformation are obtained which are similar to, and can be solved by the same numerical methods as, those of potential flow. Computed results are shown which illustrate the effects of a model turbulent boundary layer on various lifting and nonlifting surfaces, including an elastic panel in low supersonic flow and an airfoil control surface in subsonic flow.

Williams, M. H.↗