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Magnetospheric-field distortions observed by OGO 3 and 5.

The rubidium vapor magnetometer data of the scalar magnetic-field intensity obtained by the OGO 3 and 5 satellites are analyzed to study the magnetospheric-field distortions in terms of the observed field magnitude under quiet and slightly disturbed conditions minus the magnitude of the reference geomagnetic field (delta B). Average contours of equal delta Bs are shown in the geomagnetic noon-midnight and dawn-dusk meridian planes for magnetically quiet and slightly disturbed conditions. The equatorial distribution of observed delta Bs as a function of geocentric distance differs substantially from that expected from the well-known models of the quiet-time ring current. Other findings suggest that there must be a population of low-energy particles with substantial total energy near the equator at distances of 2 to 5 earth radii that has not been recognized as having sufficient energy to inflate the magnetic field.

Sugiura, M.↗

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix and Polymer Matrix Composite Structures

Stochastic-based, discrete-event progressive damage simulations of ceramic-matrix composite and polymer matrix composite material structures have been enabled through the development of a unique multiscale modeling tool. This effort involves coupling three independently developed software programs: (1) the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC), (2) the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life Prediction Program (CARES/ Life), and (3) the Abaqus finite element analysis (FEA) program. MAC/GMC contributes multiscale modeling capabilities and micromechanics relations to determine stresses and deformations at the microscale of the composite material repeating unit cell (RUC). CARES/Life contributes statistical multiaxial failure criteria that can be applied to the individual brittle-material constituents of the RUC. Abaqus is used at the global scale to model the overall composite structure. An Abaqus user-defined material (UMAT) interface, referred to here as "FEAMAC/CARES," was developed that enables MAC/GMC and CARES/Life to operate seamlessly with the Abaqus FEA code. For each FEAMAC/CARES simulation trial, the stochastic nature of brittle material strength results in random, discrete damage events, which incrementally progress and lead to ultimate structural failure. This report describes the FEAMAC/CARES methodology and discusses examples that illustrate the performance of the tool. A comprehensive example problem, simulating the progressive damage of laminated ceramic matrix composites under various off-axis loading conditions and including a double notched tensile specimen geometry, is described in a separate report.

composite structures↗

Transfer matrix computation of critical polynomials for two-dimensional Potts models

We showed, In our previous work, that critical manifolds of the q-state Potts model can be studied by means of a graph polynomial P B (q, v), henceforth referred to as the critical polynomial. This polynomial may be defined on any periodic two-dimensional lattice. It depends on a finite subgraph B, called the basis, and the manner in which B is tiled to construct the lattice. The real roots v = e K — 1 of P B (q, v) either give the exact critical points for the lattice, or provide approximations that, in principle, can be made arbitrarily accurate by increasing the size of B in an appropriate way. In earlier work, P B (q, v) was defined by a contraction-deletion identity, similar to that satisfied by the Tutte polynomial. Here, we give a probabilistic definition of P B (q, v), which facilitates its computation, using the transfer matrix, on much larger B than was previously possible.We present results for the critical polynomial on the (4, 8 2 ), kagome, and (3, 12 2 ) lattices for bases of up to respectively 96, 162, and 243 edges, compared to the limit of 36 edges with contraction-deletion. We discuss in detail the role of the symmetries and the embedding of B. The critical temperatures v c obtained for ferromagnetic (v > 0) Potts models are at least as precise as the best available results from Monte Carlo simulations or series expansions. For instance, with q = 3 we obtain v c (4, 8 2 ) = 3.742 489 (4), v c (kagome) = 1.876 459 7 (2), and v c (3, 12 2 ) = 5.033 078 49 (4), the precision being comparable or superior to the best simulation results. More generally, we trace the critical manifolds in the real (q, v) plane and discuss the intricate structure of the phase diagram in the antiferromagnetic (v < 0) region.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A SCR Model Calibration Approach with Spatially Resolved Measurements and NH 3 Storage Distributions

The selective catalytic reduction (SCR) is a technology used for reducing NO x emissions in the heavy-duty diesel (HDD) engine exhaust. In this study, the spatially resolved capillary inlet infrared spectroscopy (Spaci-IR) technique was used to study the gas concentration and NH 3 storage distributions in a SCR catalyst, and to provide data for developing a SCR model to analyze the axial gaseous concentration and axial distributions of NH 3 storage. A two-site SCR model is described for simulating the reaction mechanisms. The model equations and a calculation method was developed using the Spaci-IR measurements to determine the NH 3 storage capacity and the relationships between certain kinetic parameters of the model. Moreover, a calibration approach was then applied for tuning the kinetic parameters using the spatial gaseous measurements and calculated NH3 storage as a function of axial position instead of inlet and outlet gaseous concentrations of NO, NO 2 , and NH 3 . The equations and the approach for determining the NH 3 storage capacity of the catalyst and a method of dividing the NH 3 storage capacity between the two storage sites are presented. It was determined that the kinetic parameters of the adsorption and desorption reactions have to follow certain relationships for the model to simulate the experimental data. Finally, the modeling results served as a basis for developing full model calibrations to SCR lab reactor and engine data and state estimator development as described in the references (Song et al. 2013a, b; Surenahalli et al. 2013).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Free Energy Calculations of Crystalline Hard Sphere Complexes Using Density Functional Theory

Recently developed fundamental measure density functional theory (FMT) is used to study binary hard sphere (HS) complexes in crystalline phases. By comparing the excess free energy, pressure and phase diagram, we show that the fundamental measure functional yields good agreements to the available simulation results of AB, AB 2 and AB 13 crystals. Additionally, we use this functional to study the HS models of five binary crystals, Cu 5 Zr(C15 b ), Cu 51 Zr 14 (β), Cu 10 Zr 7 (φ), CuZr(B2) and CuZr 2 (C11 b ), which are observed in the Cu-Zr system. The FMT functional gives well behaved minimum for most of the hard sphere crystal complexes in the two dimensional Gaussian space, namely a crystalline phase. However, the current version of FMT functional (white Bear) fails to give a stable minimum for the structure Cu 10 Zr 7 (φ). We argue that the observed solid phases for the HS models of the Cu-Zr system are true thermodynamic stable phases and can be used as a reference system in perturbation calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SU-E-J-79: Evaluation of Prostate Volume Changes During Radiotherapy Using Implanted Markers and On-Board Imaging

Purpose: To evaluate prostate volume changes during radiation therapy using implanted gold markers and on-board imaging. Methods: Twenty-five patients were included who underwent an implantation of three gold markers. Cartesian coordinates of markers were assessed in kV-images. The coordinates of centers of two markers were measured on kV-images from the center of the marker at the apex which was reference. The distances between the markers were extrapolated from the coordinates using the Euclid formula. The radius of the sphere through markers was calculated using sinus theorem. The prostate volume for the first and last fraction was substituted with a sphere model and was calculated for each patient. The t-test was used for analysis. Results: The mean prostate volume for first and last fraction was 24.65 and 20.87 cc, respectively (p≤0.05). The prostate volume was smaller for 23 patients, whereas there was an expansion for 2 patients. Fifteen patients had androgen deprivation during radiotherapy (H group) and ten did not (NH group). The mean prostate volume for the first and last fraction for the NH group was 30.73 cc and 24.89 cc and for the H group 20.84 cc and 18.19 cc, respectively. There was a 15.8% volume change during treatment for the NH group and 12.2% for the H group, but the difference was not statistically significant. The radius difference of the theoretical sphere for the first and last fraction was 0.98 mm (range, 0.09–2.95 mm) and remained below 2 mm in 88% of measurements. Conclusion: There was a significant volume change during prostate radiotherapy. The difference between H group and NH group was not significant. The radius changes did not exceed 3 mm and it was below adaptive treatment requirements. Our results indicate that prostate volume changes during treatment should be taken into account during contouring and treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Achieving an 80% Renewable Portfolio in Alaska's Railbelt: Cost Analysis

This study examines the system-level costs and benefits of increased renewable energy deployment in the Railbelt grid, in the context of a proposed 80% renewable portfolio standard (RPS). This work studies the period from 2024 to 2040 and uses a model that simulates the planning, evolution, and operation of the power system to identify the mix of resources that maintains system reliability at the lowest electricity system cost over the period of analysis. The model tracks several reliability metrics, including the ability to serve demand during all hours of the year, even when normal power system failures occur. The model includes several measures (and associated costs) to address the variable output of renewable resources, including additional operating reserves, fuel storage, cycling of fossil plants, and additional equipment needed to maintain system stability. The Reference (least-cost) scenario results in substantial deployment of renewable energy and cost savings, reaching about 76% of Railbelt generation derived from renewables in 2040. Annual savings average about $105 M/year from 2030 to 2040. About 50% of this generation is from wind by 2040. Enforcing an 80% RPS results in about a 2% cumulative reduction in net savings. Demand is met in all scenarios, relying heavily on use of existing hydropower and fossil-fueled generators during periods of low renewable output. Meeting the increase in variability will require substantial changes in how the system is operated, with inverter-based resources providing nearly 100% of electricity during some periods.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Ground test of the D shaped vented thrust vectoring nozzle

Static ground tests of a large scale lift/cruise thrust vectoring nozzle were conducted to establish: (1) vectoring performance 'in' and 'out' of ground effect; (2) thrust spoilage capability; (3) compatibility of the nozzle with a turbotip fan; and (4) the nozzle structural temperature distribution. Vectoring performance of a short coupled, vented nozzle design on a large scale, (60%) basis was compared with small scale (4.5%) test nozzle results. The test nozzle was a "boilerplate" model of the MCAIR "D" vented nozzle configured for operation with the LF336/J85 turbotip lift fan system. Calibration of the LF336/J85 test fan with a simple convergent nozzle was performed with four different nozzle exit areas to establish reference thrust, nozzle pressure ratio, and nozzle corrected flow characteristics for comparison with the thrust vectoring nozzle data. Thrust vectoring tests with the 'D' vented nozzle were conducted over the range of vector angles between 0 and 117 deg for several different nozzle exit areas.

Esker, D. W.↗

A brief overview of computational structures technology related activities at NASA Lewis Research Center

The presentation gives a partial overview of research and development underway in the Structures Division of LeRC, which collectively is referred to as the Computational Structures Technology Program. The activities in the program are diverse and encompass four major categories: (1) composite materials and structures; (2) probabilistic analysis and reliability; (3) design optimization and expert systems; and (4) computational methods and simulation. The approach of the program is comprehensive and entails exploration of fundamental theories of structural mechanics to accurately represent the complex physics governing engine structural performance, formulation, and implementation of computational techniques and integrated simulation strategies to provide accurate and efficient solutions of the governing theoretical models by exploiting the emerging advances in computer technology, and validation and verification through numerical and experimental tests to establish confidence and define the qualities and limitations of the resulting theoretical models and computational solutions. The program comprises both in-house and sponsored research activities. The remainder of the presentation provides a sample of activities to illustrate the breadth and depth of the program and to demonstrate the accomplishments and benefits that have resulted.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗

The Effect of Bypass Nozzle Exit Area on Fan Aerodynamic Performance and Noise in a Model Turbofan Simulator

The design of effective new technologies to reduce aircraft propulsion noise is dependent on identifying and understanding the noise sources and noise generation mechanisms in the modern turbofan engine, as well as determining their contribution to the overall aircraft noise signature. Therefore, a comprehensive aeroacoustic wind tunnel test program was conducted called the Fan Broadband Source Diagnostic Test as part of the NASA Quiet Aircraft Technology program. The test was performed in the anechoic NASA Glenn 9- by 15-Foot Low Speed Wind Tunnel using a 1/5 scale model turbofan simulator which represented a current generation, medium pressure ratio, high bypass turbofan aircraft engine. The investigation focused on simulating in model scale only the bypass section of the turbofan engine. The test objectives were to: identify the noise sources within the model and determine their noise level; investigate several component design technologies by determining their impact on the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of the fan stage; and conduct detailed flow diagnostics within the fan flow field to characterize the physics of the noise generation mechanisms in a turbofan model. This report discusses results obtained for one aspect of the Source Diagnostic Test that investigated the effect of the bypass or fan nozzle exit area on the bypass stage aerodynamic performance, specifically the fan and outlet guide vanes or stators, as well as the farfield acoustic noise level. The aerodynamic performance, farfield acoustics, and Laser Doppler Velocimeter flow diagnostic results are presented for the fan and four different fixed-area bypass nozzle configurations. The nozzles simulated fixed engine operating lines and encompassed the fan stage operating envelope from near stall to cruise. One nozzle was selected as a baseline reference, representing the nozzle area which would achieve the design point operating conditions and fan stage performance. The total area change from the smallest to the largest nozzle was 12.9 percent of the baseline nozzle area. The results will show that there are significant changes in aerodynamic performance and farfield acoustics as the fan nozzle area is increased. The weight flow through the fan model increased between 7 and 9 percent, the fan and stage pressure dropped between 8 and 10 percent, and the adiabatic efficiency increased between 2 and 3 percent--the magnitude of the change dependent on the fan speed. Results from force balance measurements of fan and outlet guide vane thrust will show that as the nozzle exit area is increased the combined thrust of the fan and outlet guide vanes together also increases, between 2 and 3.5 percent, mainly due to the increase in lift from the outlet guide vanes. In terms of farfield acoustics, the overall sound power level produced by the fan stage dropped nearly linearly between 1 dB at takeoff condition and 3.5 dB at approach condition, mainly due to a decrease in the broadband noise levels. Finally, fan swirl angle survey and Laser Doppler Velocimeter mean velocity and turbulence data obtained in the fan wake will show that the swirl angles and turbulence levels within the wake decrease as the fan nozzle area increases, which helps to explain the drop in the fan broadband noise at all fan speeds.

Hughes, Christopher E.↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Predicting the mineral composition of dust aerosols – Part 2: Model evaluation and identification of key processes with observations

A global compilation of nearly sixty measurement studies is used to evaluate two methods of simulating the mineral composition of dust aerosols in an Earth system model. Both methods are based upon a Mean Mineralogical Table (MMT) that relates the soil mineral fractions to a global atlas of arid soil type. The Soil Mineral Fraction (SMF) method assumes that the aerosol mineral fractions match the fractions of the soil. The MMT is based upon soil measurements after wet sieving, a process that destroys aggregates of soil particles that would have been emitted from the original, undisturbed soil. The second method approximately reconstructs the emitted aggregates. This model is referred to as the Aerosol Mineral Fraction (AMF) method because the mineral fractions of the aerosols differ from those of the wet-sieved parent soil, partly due to reaggregation. The AMF method remedies some of the deficiencies of the SMF method in comparison to observations. Only the AMF method exhibits phyllosilicate mass at silt sizes, where they are abundant according to observations. In addition, the AMF quartz fraction of silt particles is in better agreement with measured values, in contrast to the overestimated SMF fraction. Measurements at distinct clay and silt particle sizes are shown to be more useful for evaluation of the models, in contrast to the sum over all particles sizes that is susceptible to compensating errors, as illustrated by the SMF experiment. Model errors suggest that allocation of the emitted silt fraction of each mineral into the corresponding transported size categories is an important remaining source of uncertainty. Evaluation of both models and the MMT is hindered by the limited number of size-resolved measurements of mineral content that sparsely sample aerosols from the major dust sources. In conclusion, the importance of climate processes dependent upon aerosol mineral composition shows the need for global and routine mineral measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

Modeling the potential of screen printed front junction CZ silicon solar cell with tunnel oxide passivated back contact

Carrier selective passivated contacts composed of thin oxide, n + polycrystalline Si and metal on top of a n-Si absorber can significantly lower the recombination current density (J orear ≤8 fA/cm 2 ) under the contact while providing excellent specific contact resistance (5–10 mΩ-cm 2 ); 25.1% efficient small area cells with photolithography front contacts on boron doped selective emitter and Fz wafers have been achieved by Fraunhofer ISE using their tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) approach. This paper shows a methodology to model such passivated contact cells using Sentaurus device model, which involves replacing the TOPCon region by carrier selective electron and hole recombination velocities to match the measured J orear of the TOPCon region as well as all the light IV values of the cell. We first validated the methodology by modeling a 24.9% reference cell. The model was then extended to assess the efficiency potential of large area TOPCon cells on commercial grade n-type Cz material with screen-printed front contacts. To use realistic input parameters, a 21% n-type PERT cell was fabricated on Cz wafer (5 Ω-cm, 1.5-ms lifetime). Modeling showed that the cell efficiency will improve to only 21.6% if the back of this cell is replaced by the above TOPCon, and the performance is limited by the homogenous emitter. Efficiency was then modeled to improve to 22.6% with the implementation of selective emitter (150/20 Ω/sq). Lastly, it is shown that screen printing of 40-µm-wide lines and improved bulk material (10 Ω-cm, 3-ms lifetime) can raise the single side TOPCon Cz cell efficiency to 23.2%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Regularized Orbital-Optimized Second-Order Møller–Plesset Perturbation Theory: A Reliable Fifth-Order-Scaling Electron Correlation Model with Orbital Energy Dependent Regularizers

We derive and assess two new classes of regularizers that cope with offending denominators in the single-reference second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2). In particular, we discuss the use of two types of orbital energy dependent regularizers, κ and σ, in conjunction with orbital-optimized MP2 (OOMP2). The resulting fifth-order-scaling methods, κ-OOMP2 and σ-OOMP2, have been examined for bond-breaking, thermochemistry, nonbonded interactions, and biradical problems. Both methods with strong enough regularization restore restricted to unrestricted instability (i.e., Coulson-Fischer points) that unregularized OOMP2 lacks when breaking bonds in H 2 , C 2 H 6 , C 2 H 4 , and C 2 H 2 . The training of the κ and σ regularization parameters was performed with the W4-11 set. We further developed scaled correlation energy variants, κ-S-OOMP2 and σ-S-OOMP2, by training on the TAE140 subset of the W4-11 set. Those new OOMP2 methods were tested on the RSE43 set and the TA13 set where unmodified OOMP2 itself performs very well. The modifications we made were found insignificant in these data sets. Furthermore, we tested the new OOMP2 methods on singlet biradicaloids using Yamaguchi's approximate spin-projection. Unlike the unregularized OOMP2, which fails to converge these systems due to the singularity, we show that regularized OOMP2 methods successfully capture strong biradicaloid characters. While further assessment on larger data sets is desirable, κ-OOMP2 with κ = 1.45 E h-1 appears to combine favorable recovery of Coulson-Fischer points with good numerical performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Parametric Modeling and Economic Analysis of a 2MW th 3-Stream sCO 2 Heat Exchanger

Here, this paper presents the design and cost optimization of a novel 2MW th 3-stream sCO2 plate-fin heat exchanger. This heat exchanger design is unique in that it uses reduced metal oxide particle-to-sCO2 heat exchanger for cost-effective energy storage applications. The design uses low velocity, laminar air as the re-oxidizing reactant to transfer the heat of the re-oxidizing reaction to a sCO2 power loop. The design of the heat exchanger is based on a 2-D, 3-fluid plate/fin heat transfer model. The model parameterizes the size, shape, and number of passages of the heat exchanger to calculate the temperature profile, pressure drop, and fluid velocities of all three fluids. Global heat exchanger parameters such as the effectiveness and total heat transferred to the sCO2 are then calculated for overall performance. Due to the value and increased use of sCO2 heat exchangers in power cycles, a cost model of the system based on the unique high temperature/high pressure operating conditions was created using quotes from reference projects and market analysis. These quoted air-to-sCO2 heat exchangers are then processed using multiple weighting factors pertinent to heat exchanger design, including heat exchanger type, maximum temperature, differential pressures, fluids, duty, and more. These factors are then used in an exponential function in order to generate a parameterized cost curve. The design and cost of the heat exchanger are then optimized using the SMPSO genetic algorithm in Python. The optimization objectives for the system are to maximize the overall system effectiveness, including an air recuperator for preheating, and to minimize unit costs. Additional constraints are added to the system for the sCO2 and air pressure drops, air velocity to reduce particle entrainment, and the length and volume of the heat exchanger.

Cost Model↗

Solid-Fueled Pressurized Chemical Looping with Flue-Gas Turbine Combined Cycle for Improved Plant Efficiency and CO 2 Capture

The purpose of this document is to report the final result of techno-economic analysis for the proposed 550MWe integrated pressurized chemical looping combustion combined cycle process. An Aspen Plus based model is delivered in this report along with the results from three sensitivity scenarios including the operating pressure, excess air ratio and oxygen carrier performance. A process flow diagram and detailed stream table for the base case are also provided with the overall plant energy balance, carbon balance, sulfur balance and water balance. The approach to the process and key component simulation are explained. The economic analysis (OPEX and CAPX) on four study cases via DOE NETL Reference Case 12 are presented and explained.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Projection Microstereolithography for Architected Materials

Stereolithography (SL) is a prominent paradigm in the realm of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, which refers to fabrication approaches that build “bottom up” by adding material. Pioneered in 1984 by Chuck Hull, SL relies on light-activated solidification of a liquid photosensitive resin in a layer-by-layer fashion, with the geometry of each layer defined by sectioning a three-dimensional (3D) computer model by closely-spaced parallel planes. The maturation of the technology over nearly three subsequent decades has resulted in the wide availability of commercial SL products, such as the ProJet series from 3D Systems, Inc. (which uses the proprietary acronym SLA to refer to SL technology), which routinely produces parts with 50-100 µm resolution in all three axes, and overall dimensions of 0.25-0.5 m. In the most general terms, advancements in SL technology have generally been aimed at achieving four goals: decreasing (1) system cost and (2) minimum feature size (i.e. improving resolution), while (3) increasing overall part size and (4) build speed. SL systems can be broadly categorized into two classes, by the way in which they deliver illumination to produce the shape of each object layer to be fabricated: laser-scanning and mask projection approaches. Commercially-available SL systems incorporate the laser-scanning approach, following the original scheme described by Hull, since digital image projection technology has only emerged relatively recently as a viable alternative. A significant limitation of laser scanning is the relatively slow speed of rastering the laser to form each layer’s pattern, highlighting the need for a dynamic mask-based approach to polymerize larger areas in a single exposure. The recent proliferation of digital display technologies (referred to as spatial light modulators or SLMs) has enabled the implementation of such “dynamic masking,” increasing system throughput by allowing a complete image layer to be cross-linked simultaneously. These mask projection SL systems are gaining greater prominence, and the landscape of some of the parameters available for system design, as implemented in recent work by a variety of investigators, has been reviewed by Lambert et al.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗