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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

A Polywell Fusion Reactor Designed for Net Power Generation

A brief history of Polywell progress is recounted. The present PIC simulation explains why the most recent Polywell fusion reactor failed to produce fusion energy. Synchronized variations of multiple parameters would require DC power supplies, not available in historic model testing. Even with DC power, the simulation showed that the trapping of cold electrons would ruin plasma stability during start-up. A theoretical solution to this trapping problem was found in Russian literature describing diocotron-pumping of electrons out of a plasma trap at Kharkov Institute. In Polywell, diocotron-pumping required matching the depth of the potential-well to the electron-beam current falling on a special aperture installed in one of the electromagnets. With diocotron-pumping the reactor was simulated to reach steady-state, maximum-power operation in a few milliseconds of simulated time. These improvements, validated in simulating small-scale DD reactors, were scaled up by a factor of 30 to simulate a large, net-power reactor burning p + {sup 11}B fuel. Power-balance was estimated from a textbook formula for fusion power density by numerically integrating the power density. Unity power-balance required the size of the p + {sup 11}B reactor to be somewhat larger than ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Preface to the Special Issue on TOUGH Symposium 2015

The TOUGH Symposium 2015 was held in Berkeley, California, September 28-30, 2015. The TOUGH family of codes, developed at the Energy Geosciences Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), is a suite of computer programs for the simulation of multiphase and multicomponent fluid and heat flows in porous and fractured media with applications in many geosciences fields, such as geothermal reservoir engineering, nuclear waste disposal, geological carbon sequestration, oil and gas reservoirs, gas hydrate research, vadose zone hydrology and environmental remediation. Since the first release in the 1980s, many modifications and enhancements have been continuously made to TOUGH and its various descendants (iTOUGH2, TOUGH+, TOUGH-MP, TOUGHREACT, TOUGH+HYDRATE, TMVOC...), at LBNL and elsewhere. Today, these codes are used worldwide in academia, government organizations and private companies in problems involving coupled hydrological, thermal, biogeochemical and geomechanical processes. The Symposia, organized every 2-3 years, bring together developers and users for an open exchange on recent code enhancements and applications. In 2015, the Symposium was attended by one hundred participants, representing thirty-four nationalities. This Special Issue in Computers & Geosciences gathers extended versions of selected Symposium proceedings related to (i) recent enhancements to the TOUGH family of codes and (ii) coupled flow and geomechanics processes modeling. In this special issue, a paper by Jung et al. provides a new base version of TOUGH, TOUGH3. This latest version addresses the computational robustness and efficiency needed for the increasing complexity of the simulated processes and the growing size of model domains. Moreover, it consolidates the serial and parallel versions into a single code, hence, inconsistencies between different versions are less likely to occur, and code maintenance and development become more efficient. Finsterle et al. present a review of the capabilities of iTOUGH2 and illustrate the workflow of an integrated simulation-optimization framework. Liu et al. present an approach to reduce the computational cost of performing Bayesian inverse modeling and demonstrate their approach using a synthetic experiment simulated with TOUGH2. Regarding the mesh generation process, the paper by Doughty presents a generalization of the grid-generation algorithm embedded in TOUGH2 (MESHMAKER) to create one-column grids with fractal dimension, useful for representing flow through fractures or highly heterogeneous media with fractal geometry, and also for inverse methods. Sentís and Gable present a module to interface the open source code Lagrit with TOUGH2, that assists in the processes of mesh generation and model setup, and that can be particularly useful for complex geometries and large models. Bonduà et al. present a pre-processing tool (VORO2MESH) that features a full 3D Voronoi approach for structured and unstructured grids, and an enhanced post-processor (TOUGH2Viewer) for the visualization of 3D Voronoi grids. The literature review shows that coupled fluid flow and geomechanics has gained increasing attention in the last years in many geosciences fields. In this context, several codes of the TOUGH family have been successfully coupled with geomechanics software. The paper by Rutqvist presents a review of some of these TOUGH-based geomechanics models, of which the TOUGH-FLAC simulator – presented for the first time in the TOUGH Symposium 2003 – is well-known worldwide and has been used in a large variety of applications, encompassing the application domains of the TOUGH codes. Blanco-Martín et al. present an extension of TOUGH-FLAC to the finite strain framework, motivated by the existence of large strains associated with rock salt deformation in the context of heat-generating nuclear waste disposal. Following a paper published in the Special Issue of the TOUGH Symposium 2012 in this journal, Kim et al. present the current status of the TOUGH-RSBN simulator for coupled hydro-mechanical modeling of hydraulic fracturing using a discrete fracture network approach, and present some validation and demonstration cases. Rinaldi and Nespoli present TOUGH-SEED, an injection-induced seismicity modeling approach using TOUGH2 and a geomechanics stochastic model, and apply it to the Basel EGS project. Finally, Rinaldi et al. use the PEST protocol implemented in iTOUGH2, combined with TOUGH-FLAC as the forward model, to perform inverse modeling for the In Salah CO2 demonstration site in Algeria. Using pore pressures and InSAR displacements as observations, this approach allows for a multi-physics joint inversion and takes advantage of the inverse capabilities of iTOUGH2 (parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty estimation …), applied to coupled fluid flow and geomechanics. On behalf of the members of the TOUGH Symposium 2015 Organizing Committee, I hope that this collection of papers will provide the readers of Computers & Geosciences with a recent view of the capabilities of the TOUGH family of codes, as well as with current modeling research domains in the geosciences. Last but not least, I would like to express my gratitude to all the reviewers who kindly contributed to this Special Issue, as well as the Journal staff who have made this publication possible.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Investigating the Effect of Sorbed Humic Acid on the Mobility of Uranium - 19461

The Savannah River Site (SRS) was one of the major nuclear facilities for the U.S Department of Energy. During the Cold War, these facilities produced large amounts of radioactive and hazardous waste. On site, the F-Area consisted of three unlined seepage basins that collected approximately 6.8 billion liters of low-level waste that contained nitric acid, radionuclides, and dissolved metals due to plutonium separation operations. Sufficient quantities of uranium isotopes, I-129, Tc-99, and tritium migrated into the groundwater, creating an acidic plume with a pH between 3 and 5.5. Although the basins functioned as designed, the acidic nature of the waste created a source of contamination for the groundwater and soil below the basins. With radionuclides above their maximum contaminant level (MCL) remediation efforts took place. Humic acid as a remediation technology has shown potential for controlling radionuclide mobility. Humic acid is a fraction of humic substance that are ubiquitous in the environment. Humic substances (HS) are complex heterogeneous mixtures of polydispersed materials formed by biochemical and chemical reactions during the decay and transformation of plant and microbial remains. Humic substances account for 50-80% of the organic carbon in the soil or sediment and are known for their excellent binding capacity for metals. Humic acid can be extracted with a potassium hydroxide base solution and then drying it. The high pH solubilizes the humic acid molecules and generates a dark-brown highly-concentrated solution, rich in humic acid, which can be diluted for use. Humic acid's strong sorption capacity and its ability to develop a bond with uranium at slightly acid pH constitute it as remediation technology to reduce uranium (VI) mobility. Column experiments were performed to identify the sorption and desorption of HS in flow-through porous media representative of the acidic aquifer at the F-Area Seepage Basins. Two commercially available HA were selected for comparison, Huma-K and KW15 modified humics (modified humic acid, mod-HA). By conducting a nonreactive rhenium tracer test, on columns filled with soil obtained from SRS's FAW-1 at a depth interval of 18 m -21 m, column parameters such as pore volume (PV), variance, dispersion and peclet number were determined. Columns were then used to estimate the influence of HA on uranium mobility. Data obtained from this study shows that using HA as an amendment for uranium remediation improves uranium removal significantly. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks [Slides]

This presentation discusses Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) and how designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear experiments. The presentation poses the question of how this analysis can be performed and states that the answer lies in matching new nuclear experiments with existing benchmark experiments using similarity metrics. By increasing the criticality safety of the application in this work, higher mass limits could be used in PF-4 operations. Additionally, the presentation discusses MCNP6.2®, Whisper-1.1, the software that can be used in this analysis. Also discussed is the fact that International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks rarely match new nuclear applications and that there are significant differences in given set of materials and/or geometry. If there are no benchmarks that match the application, the presentation discusses the possibility of creating new benchmarks. In conclusion, this work presents a Gaussian process (GP) optimization scheme that was used to generate new benchmarks with the highest sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. The Gaussian process optimization successfully designed 3 new experimental benchmarks that were highly correlated to the application of interest and had k eff values near critical. Optimization over c k,i-r has shown that investigating specific isotope reactions for different applications is crucial to designing benchmark experiments. Partial contribution from Pu dominates c k similarity metric. Future work includes testing new stand-alone similarity metrics or new combinations of similarity metrics as the design criterion of this optimization – design criterion is application dependent.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Application of Radon Transform to Multi-Angle Measurements Made by the Research Scanning Polarimeter: A New Approach to Cloud Tomography. Part I: Theory and Tests on Simulated Data.

The Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) is an airborne along-track scanner measuring the polarized and total reflectances in 9 spectral channels. The RSP was a prototype for the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) launched on-board the NASA Glory satellite. Currently the retrieval algorithms developed for the RSP are being adopted for the measurements of the space-borne polarimeters on the upcoming NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud Ocean Ecosystem (PACE)satellite mission. The RSP’s uniquely high angular resolution coupled with the high frequency of measurements allows for characterization of liquid water cloud droplet sizes using the polarized rainbow structure. It also provides geometric constraints on the cumulus cloud’s 2D cross section yielding the cloud’s geometric shape estimates. In this study we further build on the latter technique to develop a new tomographic approach to retrieval of cloud internal structure from remote sensing measurements. While tomography in the strict definition is a technique based on active measurements yielding a tomogram (directional optical thickness as a function of angle and offset of the view ray), we developed a “semi-tomographic” approach in which tomogram of the cloud is estimated from passive observations instead of being measured directly. This tomogram is then converted into 2D spatial distribution of the extinction coefficient using inverse Radon transform (filtered back projection) which is the standard tomographic procedure used e.g., in medical CT scans. This algorithm is computationally inexpensive compared to techniques relying on highly-multi-dimensional least-square fitting; it does not require iterative 3D RT simulations. The resulting extinction distribution is defined up to an unknown constant factor, so we discuss the ways to calibrate it using additional independent measurements. In the next step we use the profile of the droplet size distribution parameters from the cloud’s side (derived by fitting the polarized rainbows) to convert the 2D extinction distribution into that of the droplet number concentration. We illustrate and validate the proposed technique using 3D-RT-simulatedRSP observations of a LES-generated Cu cloud. Quantitative comparisons between the retrieved and the original optical and microphysical parameters are presented.

clouds↗
DOE OSTI2016

Nacre tablet thickness records formation temperature in modern and fossil shells

Nacre, the iridescent outer lining of pearls and inner lining of many mollusk shells, is made of periodic, parallel, organic sheets alternating with aragonite (CaCO 3 ) tablet layers. Nacre tablet thickness (TT) generates both nacre's iridescence and its remarkable resistance to fracture. Despite extensive studies on how nacre forms, the mechanisms controlling TT remain unknown, even though they determine the most conspicuous of nacre's characteristics, visible even to the naked eye.Thermodynamics predicts that temperature (T) will affect both physical and chemical components of biomineralized skeletons. The chemical composition of biominerals is well-established to record environmental parameters, and has therefore been extensively used in paleoclimate studies. The physical structure, however, has been hypothesized but never directly demonstrated to depend on the environment. Here we observe that the physical TT in nacre from modern and fossil shallow-water shells of the bivalves Pinna and Atrina correlates with T as measured by the carbonate clumped isotope thermometer. Based on the observed TT vs. T correlation, we anticipate that TT will be used as a paleothermometer, useful to estimate paleotemperature in shallow-water paleoenvironments. Here we successfully test the proposed new nacre TT thermometer on two Jurassic Pinna shells. The increase of TT with T is consistent with greater aragonite growth rate at higher T, and with greater metabolic rate at higher T. Thus, it reveals a complex, T-dependent biophysical mechanism for nacre formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED PREDICTION OF TRANSIENT INJECTION MAP IN AUTOMOTIVE INJECTORS WITH UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION

Accurate prediction of injection profiles is a critical aspect of linking injector operation with engine performance and emissions. However, highly resolved injector simulations can take one to two weeks of wall-clock time, which is incompatible with engine design cycles with desired turnaround times of less than a day. Hence, it is important to reduce the time-to-solution of the internal flow simulations by several orders of magnitude to make it compatible with engine simulations. This work demonstrates a data-driven approach for tackling the computational overhead of injector simulations, whereby the transient injection profiles are emulated for a side-oriented, single-hole diesel injector using a Bayesian machine-learning framework. First, an interpretable Bayesian learning strategy was employed to understand the effect of design parameters on the total void fraction field. Then, autoencoders are utilized for efficient dimensionality reduction of the flowfields. Gaussian process models are finally used to predict the spatiotemporal void fraction field at the injector exit for unknown operating conditions. The Gaussian process models produce principled uncertainty estimates associated with the emulated flowfields, which provide the engine designer with valuable information of where the data-driven predictions can be trusted in the design space. The Bayesian flowfield predictions are compared with the corresponding predictions from a deep neural network, which has been transfer-learned from static needle simulations from a previous work by the authors. The emulation framework can predict the void fraction field at the exit of the orifice within a few seconds, thus achieving a speed-up factor of up to 38 x 10(6) over the traditional simulation-based approach of generating transient injection maps.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

MW-Class SOFC Pilot System Development

The overall objective of this project is to develop a low-cost, efficient, and reliable MWe-class Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) power system towards commercial deployment in natural-gas fueled distributed generation applications. This report details the successful completion of all project objectives. The main goals of the project were to develop the conceptual design of a MWe-class SOFC power system, and to complete a techno-economic analysis (TEA) to determine system costs at low-volume production levels of >100MW per year. The combination of the BoP equipment cost and SOFC stack module factory cost provided the net fabrication cost of the selected 1MW SOFC system configuration. The results of the study showed that the cost target of less than $6000/kW is achievable for a FOAK 1MW SOFC system, exclusive of the first-time engineering cost. Also, the project included an exploratory analysis of the factory cost of next generation stack technology based on the Compact Solid-oxide Architecture (CSA) design at a high annual manufacturing rate of one-GW produced in a giga-factory. The BoP capital cost for one giga-watt power production was estimated using learning-curve analysis based on the historical manufacturing cost data related to similar high temperature Molten Carbonate fuel cell systems built by FuelCell Energy (FCE). The giga-factory manufactured SOFC cost estimate combined with the BoP cost at high production rates led to the estimation of entire system capital cost. Ultimately, a Cost of Electricity (COE) analysis was performed including natural gas fuel prices, installation and O&M costs, and stack replacement cost. The results of the techno-economic analysis were summarized by parametric estimation of COE for 1MW SOFC NOAK (Nth-of-a-Kind) system with natural gas prices as a variable parameter.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

BISON fuel performance modeling optimization for experiment X447 and X447A using axial swelling and cladding strain measurements

With the recent need to qualify new reactor designs such as the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), fuel performance calculations need to be performed to determine safety criteria of the proposed designs. In order to validate the fuel performance results obtained by a fuel performance code, BISON, for new reactor designs, legacy fuel from EBR-II and FFTF MFF with Post -Irradiation Examination (PIE) data need to be used as validation cases to benchmark models. Here in this work, BISON has been paired with the Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) and IFR Materials Information System (IMIS) to supply PIE data for comparison with simulations of EBR-II experiments X447/X447A. X447/X447A were assessed by implementing models for Fuel Cladding Chemical Interaction (FCCI) within BISON and optimizing the friction coefficient between the fuel surface and the cladding, the anisotropic swelling factor, and the HT9 first thermal creep scalar (which scales the first term in the HT9 creep equation) to best match the PIE axial fuel swelling height and cladding profilometry for all pins in X447/X447A. The optimal values were found using a generic algorithm developed to select different values for the three parameters until end criteria was met and error couldn’t be reduced further. The BISON-simulated cladding profilometry was evaluated using Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE) to account for the profile shape of the cladding profilometry. Optimal values for the friction coefficient, anisotropic fuel swelling factor, and HT9 first thermal creep scalar were found to best fit the BISON simulation results to the PIE measurements found in IMIS and FIPD. Improvements to current models are suggested to account for the underprediction of fuel swelling at low burnups and the overprediction of fuel swelling at higher burnups observed for the axial fuel swelling height. Although two pins in EBR-II X447/X447A (DP70 and DP75) were known to fail due to FCCI, none of the pins simulated in BISON reached a cumulative damage fraction (CDF) above 0.008 with FCCI correlations coupled in the BISON simulations. The error estimate generated for all pins in X447/X447A using optimal values was 209 µm, which is deemed acceptable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Direct probe of dark energy through gravitational lensing effect

We show that gravitational lensing can provide a direct method to probe the nature of dark energy at astrophysical scales. For lensing system as an isolated astrophysical object, we derive the dark energy contribution to gravitational potential as a repulsive power-law term, containing a generic equation of state parameter w . We find that it generates w -dependent and position-dependent modification to the conventional light orbital equation of w =−1. With post-Newtonian approximation, we compute its direct effect for an isolated lensing system at astrophysical scales and find that the dark energy force can deflect the path of incident light rays. We demonstrate that the dark-energy-induced deflection angle Δα{sub DE}∝ M {sup (1+1/3} {sup w} {sup )} (with 1+1/3 w > 0), which increases with the lensing mass M and consistently approaches zero in the limit M → 0. This effect is distinctive because dark energy tends to diffuse the rays and generates concave lensing effect . This is in contrast to the conventional convex lensing effect caused by both visible and dark matter. Measuring such concave lensing effect can directly probe the existence and nature of dark energy. We estimate this effect and show that the current gravitational lensing experiments are sensitive to the direct probe of dark energy at astrophysical scales. For the special case w =−1, our independent study favors the previous works that the cosmological constant can affect light bending, but our prediction qualitatively and quantitatively differ from the literature, including our consistent realization of Δα{sub DE} → 0 (under 0 M → ) at the leading order.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic Model of Basic Oxygen Steelmaking Process Based on Multizone Reaction Kinetics: Modeling of Decarburization

In a previous study by the authors (Rout et al. in Metall Mater Trans B 49:537–557, 2018), a dynamic model for the BOF, employing the concept of multizone kinetics was developed. In the current study, the kinetics of decarburization reaction is investigated. The jet impact and slag–metal emulsion zones were identified to be primary zones for carbon oxidation. The dynamic parameters in the rate equation of decarburization such as residence time of metal drops in the emulsion, interfacial area evolution, initial size, and the effects of surface-active oxides have been included in the kinetic rate equation of the metal droplet. A modified mass-transfer coefficient based on the ideal Langmuir adsorption equilibrium has been proposed to take into account the surface blockage effects of SiO{sub 2} and P{sub 2}O{sub 5} in slag on the decarburization kinetics of a metal droplet in the emulsion. Further, a size distribution function has been included in the rate equation to evaluate the effect of droplet size on reaction kinetics. The mathematical simulation indicates that decarburization of the droplet in the emulsion is a strong function of the initial size and residence time. A modified droplet generation rate proposed previously by the authors has been used to estimate the total decarburization rate by slag–metal emulsion. The model’s prediction shows that about 76 pct of total carbon is removed by reactions in the emulsion, and the remaining is removed by reactions at the jet impact zone. The predicted bath carbon by the model has been found to be in good agreement with the industrially measured data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introducing the SLICE Method for estimating pebble-bed reactor inventories at equilibrium operation with SCALE

This paper introduces the SCALE Leap-In method for Cores at Equilibrium (SLICE) for estimating pebble-bed reactor equilibrium core isotopic inventories using capabilities in the SCALE code system, requiring only a small computational cluster and a few days of computation. This method uses an iterative approach that relies on (1) a surrogate spectrum model that captures spatial and time-dependent spectral conditions, (2) a multi-pass model that captures the pebble’s evolving nuclide inventory as a function of location and time in the core, and (3) a full-core model that captures the core’s spatial neutron flux distribution. The SLICE approach is applied to a generic fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor, demonstrating fuel inventory convergence through nuclide concentration inspection across iterations and comparisons for core realizations with varying discretizations. Results agree within ~5% with another state-of-the-art code, with differences attributed to input parameter or modeling assumption variations in the equilibrium generation methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗