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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Fast approximate STEM image simulations from a machine learning model

Abstract Accurate quantum mechanical scanning transmission electron microscopy image simulation methods such as the multislice method require computation times that are too large to use in applications in high-resolution materials imaging that require very large numbers of simulated images. However, higher-speed simulation methods based on linear imaging models, such as the convolution method, are often not accurate enough for use in these applications. We present a method that generates an image from the convolution of an object function and the probe intensity, and then uses a multivariate polynomial fit to a dataset of corresponding multislice and convolution images to correct it. We develop and validate this method using simulated images of Pt and Pt–Mo nanoparticles and find that for these systems, once the polynomial is fit, the method runs about six orders of magnitude faster than parallelized CPU implementations of the multislice method while achieving a 1 − R 2 error of 0.010–0.015 and root-mean-square error/standard deviation of dataset being predicted of about 0.1 when compared to full multislice simulations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Disorder-induced magnetoelastic behaviors of MnTexSbyBi1-x-y alloys

This dataset contains input and output files from density functional theory (DFT) simulations used to study the disorder-induced magnetoelastic behaviors of MnTexSbyBi1-x-y (0 ≤ x + y ≤ 1) alloys and their binary end members MnTe, MnSb, and MnBi. The alloys adopt the hexagonal NiAs-type (nickeline) structure and span ternary (MnTexSb1-x, MnTexBi1-x, MnBixSb1-x), and quaternary compositions across the full MnTe–MnSb–MnBi composition triangle. For each alloy composition, the dataset provides DFT calculations in three magnetic configurations: A-type antiferromagnetic (AFM), C-type AFM, and ferromagnetic (FM). Every magnetic configuration folder contains the fully relaxed crystal structure (CONTCAR), VASP input parameters (INCAR), and the main VASP output file (OUTCAR), from which total electronic energies, Mn magnetic moments, lattice parameters, and percent volume changes between magnetic states are extracted. These data are used to construct compositional phase diagrams, evaluate thermodynamic stability (formability), and map magnetoelastic responses across the alloy space. For A-type AFM and FM configurations, additional data are provided as follows: (i) FORCE_CONSTANTS and thermal_properties.yaml files at the top level of A-type_AFM/ and FM/ folders — present only for compositions marked with an asterisk (*) in Table I of the main text. These are derived from Phonopy finite-displacement calculations on full disordered 128-atom supercells and provide vibrational free energy, entropy (Svib)contribution from explicit disorder calculations. (Table I of the associated main manuscript) (ii) A VCA/ subfolder within A-type_AFM/ and FM/, containing FORCE_CONSTANTS and thermal_properties.yaml from Virtual Crystal Approximation phonon calculations (without spin-orbit coupling). VCA data are available for all compositions and are used to estimate vibrational contributions to the Gibbs free energy across the full composition space. (iii) A SOC/ subfolder containing CONTCAR, INCAR, and OUTCAR from spin-orbit coupling calculations, providing relativistic corrections to electronic energies and lattice parameters (Tables S2–S3 of the SM, and Table I of the main manuscript). (iv) A SOC/VCA/ subfolder containing FORCE_CONSTANTS and thermal_properties.yaml from VCA phonon calculations performed within the SOC framework, combining relativistic and vibrational thermodynamic corrections. The computed properties are used to map the AFM–FM magnetic crossover near MnTe0.75Sb0.25, demonstrate disorder- and spin-induced phonon broadening, identify a semiconductor-to-metal crossover, and quantify the pronounced magnetoelastic volume response near the magnetic phase boundary.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-seasonal measurements of the ground-level atmospheric ice-nucleating particle abundance on the North Slope of Alaska

Atmospheric ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are an important subset of aerosol particles that are responsible for the heterogeneous formation of ice crystals. INPs modulate the arctic cloud phase (liquid vs. ice), resulting in implications for radiative feedbacks. The number of arctic INP studies investigating specific INP episodes or sources increased recently. However, existing studies are based on short-duration field data, and long-term datasets are lacking. Continuous, long-term measurements are key to determining the abundance and variability of ambient arctic INPs and constraining aerosol–cloud interactions, e.g., to verify and/or improve simulations of mixed-phase clouds. Here, we present a new long-duration INP dataset from the Arctic: 2 years of predominantly immersion-mode INP concentrations (n INP ) measured continuously at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW) on the North Slope of Alaska. A portable ice nucleation experiment chamber (PINE-03), which simulates adiabatic expansion cooling, was used to directly measure the ground-level INP abundance with an approximately 12 min time resolution from October 2021 to December 2023. We document PINE-03 n INP measurements as well as estimated ice nucleation active surface site density (n s ) over a wide range of heterogeneous freezing temperatures from −16 to −31 °C from which we introduce new season-specific parameterizations suitable for modeling mixed-phase clouds. Collocated aerosol and meteorological data were analyzed to assess the correlation between ambient n INP , air mass origin region, and meteorological variability. Our findings suggest (1) very high freezing efficiency of INPs across the measured temperatures (n s ≈ 2×10 8 –10 10 m −2 for −16 to −31 °C), which is a factor of 10–1000 times greater efficiency as compared to that found in the previous mid-latitude INP measurements in fall using the same instrument; (2) surprisingly high n INP (≥ 1 L −1 at −25 °C) for the examined temperatures throughout the year that were not measured by PINE-03 at other sites; and (3) high n INP in spring, possibly related to arctic haze episodes. Relatively low concentrations of aerosol surface area and contrasting high-INP concentrations at BRW relative to mid-latitude sites are the possible reasons for the observed high freezing efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Global Simulation of Bioenergy Crop Productivity: Analytical Framework and Case Study for Switchgrass

A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global-scale agro-ecosystem modeling. We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized natural resources datasets, (ii) global field-trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high-performance computing (HPC) simulation, and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC-Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (HPC-EPIC) model simulated a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus, energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass field-trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding metrics of sustainability.

Kang, Shujiang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate Effective Stress Measures: Predicting Creep Life for 3D Stresses Using 2D and 1D Creep Rupture Simulations and Data

Operating structural components experience complex loading conditions resulting in 3D stress states. Current design practice estimates multiaxial creep rupture life by mapping a general state of stress to a uniaxial creep rupture correlation using effective stress measures. The data supporting the development of effective stress measures are nearly always only uniaxial and biaxial, as 3D creep rupture tests are not widely available. This limitation means current effective stress measures must extrapolate from 2D to 3D stress states, potentially introducing extrapolation error. In this work, we use a physics-based, crystal plasticity finite element model to simulate uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial creep rupture. Here, we use the virtual dataset to assess the accuracy of current and novel effective stress measures in extrapolating from 2D to 3D stresses and also explore how the predictive accuracy of the effective stress measures might change if experimental 3D rupture data was available. We confirm these conclusions, based on simulation data, against multiaxial creep rupture experimental data for several materials, drawn from the literature. The results of the virtual experiments show that calibrating effective stress measures using triaxial test data would significantly improve accuracy and that some effective stress measures are more accurate than others, particularly for highly triaxial stress states. Results obtained using experimental data confirm the numerical findings and suggest that a unified effective stress measure should include an explicit dependence on the first stress invariant, the maximum tensile principal stress, and the von Mises stress.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reparameterizing Litter Decomposition Using a Simplified Monte Carlo Method Improves Litter Decay Simulated by a Microbial Model and Alters Bioenergy Soil Carbon Estimates

Litter decomposition determines soil organic matter (SOM) formation and plant-available nutrient cycles. Therefore, accurate model representation of litter decomposition is critical to improving soil carbon (C) projections of bioenergy feedstocks. Soil C models that simulate microbial physiology (i.e., microbial models) are new to bioenergy agriculture, and their parameterization is often based on small datasets or manual calibration to reach benchmarks. Here, we reparameterized litter decomposition in a microbial soil C model (CORPSE - Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment) using the continental-scale Long-term Inter-site Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) dataset which documents decomposition across a range of litter qualities over a decade. Here, we conducted a simplified Monte Carlo simulation that constrained parameter values to reduce computational costs. The LIDET-derived parameters improved modeled C and nitrogen (N) remaining, decomposition rates, and litter mean residence times as compared to Baseline parameters. We applied the LIDET litter decomposition parameters to a microbial bioenergy model (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen – Bioenergy Carbon, Rhizosphere, Organisms, and Protection) to examine soil C estimates generated by Baseline and LIDET parameters. LIDET parameters increased estimated soil C in bioenergy feedstocks, with even greater increases under elevated plant inputs (i.e., by increasing residue, N fertilization). This was due to the integrated effects of plant litter quantity, quality, and agricultural practices (tillage, fertilization). Collectively, we developed a simple framework for using large-scale datasets to inform the parameterization of microbial models that impacts projections of soil C for bioenergy feedstocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Photovoltaic Module Materials and Design on Module Deformation Under Load

Quasi-static structural finite-element models of an aluminum-framed crystalline silicon photovoltaic module and a glass-glass thin-film module were constructed and validated against experimental measurements of deflection under uniform pressure loading. Specific practices in the computational representation of module assembly were identified as influential to matching experimental deflection observations. Additionally, parametric analyses using Latin hypercube sampling were performed to propagate input uncertainties related to module materials, dimensions, and tolerances into uncertainties in simulated deflection. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the uncertainty quantification datasets using linear correlation coefficients and variance-based sensitivity indices to elucidate key parameters influencing module deformation. Results identified edge tape and adhesive material properties as being strongly correlated to module deflection, suggesting that optimization of these materials could yield module stiffness gains at par with the conventionally structural parameters, such as glass thickness. This exercise verifies the applicability of finite-element models for accurately predicting mechanical behavior of solar modules and demonstrates a workflow for model-based parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Finally, applications of this capability include the assessment of field environment loads, derivation of representative loading conditions for reduced-scale testing, and module design optimization, among others.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation (BPMS)

The Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation project aims to reduce the cost and time of research by applying theory, modeling, and simulation to the most relevant bottlenecks in the biochemical process. We use molecular modeling, quantum mechanics, metabolic modeling, fluid dynamics, and reaction-diffusion methods in close collaboration with pretreatment, hydrolysis, upgrading, and TEA. The project's outcomes are increased yields and efficiency of the biochemical process, added value to products, and reduced price of fuels by specifically targeting catalytic efficiency, reactor design, enzyme efficiency, and microbial design. We work closely with experimental projects to identify problems and iterate with experiments to find and refine solutions. By working with experimentalists, we decide on problems that can be solved with simulation that could otherwise not be solved or would take too long with experiment alone to reach BETO's targets. Over the years, we have produced solutions that have resulted in determining the most likely fatty-acid derivative for passive transport out of bacteria that upgrade biomass, and we have also designed enzyme mutations for enhanced lignin upgrading. Metabolic models have been developed to tune the activity of 2,3 butanediol production for the 2030 target. A computational method to deliver understanding of how complex omics data can be interpreted in the metabolic pathways of organisms used in the Agile Biofoundry. We have found methods to overcome specific barriers and continue to develop those methods. Our reactor studies have guided the design of both the microbes and reactors for aerobic and micro-aerobic production at all scales and have been instrumental in improving the accuracy of techno-economic analysis models. This project is essential in the process of selecting the final processes for 2030 SAF production targets. More specifically, recently, we have: 1) Predicted the strength of the basic structural interactions in commodity plastics to provide guidance for plastics upcycling strategies. 2) Developed computational tool to improve the characterization of lignin-derived compounds 3) Developed new methodologies to enable Machine Learning-based Directed Evolution for protein engineering. 4) Developed Machine Learning methods to predict protein promiscuity and mutations to further improve microbial and enzymatic driven processes and demonstrated the utility of ML approaches to engineering proteins from sparse experimental datasets. 5) Developed new methods to enable high-fidelity simulation of aerobic fermentation at industrial scale and resolving mismatch of time scales through subcycling/operator splitting 7) Identified the difficulty in preventing local high-oxygen conditions in industrial bubble columns, which leads to less-desirable acetoin production, suggesting future research directions in alternative reactor configurations (e.g loop reactors, shallow-channel reactors).

BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-driven design optimization of reaction injection molding (RIM) process for polydicyclopentadiene (pDCPD): Minimizing cycle time, defects, and warpage

Replacing metal components in trucks, trailers, and buses with lightweight polymer composites is challenging due to high temperatures and complex manufacturing. The Reaction Injection Molding (RIM) process using Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) resin offers a solution by producing robust parts with excellent stiffness, impact strength, and resistance properties. Simulations are essential for optimizing this process, predicting defects, and improving quality. However, most commercial software is tailored for thermoplastics, requiring thermoset users to generate their own datasets. In this study, a material data card for DCPD was developed to perform RIM simulations. Design of Experiments (DOE) was used to identify key factors affecting filling, curing, and warpage, aiming to minimize cycle time and defects. The simulations explored varying injection gate parameters (size, location, number) and process conditions (mold/resin temperature, injection/curing pressure). Results showed that gate design significantly impacts filling behavior and defects. A single central gate provided balanced flow with fewer defects, while two corner gates led to more defects. Additionally, lower injection pressure increased filling time, while higher mold temperature accelerated curing but led to more warpage. In conclusion, this optimization framework aims to enhance DCPD part performance and promote sustainable manufacturing by reducing waste and energy consumption.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Next Generation Reaction Injection Molding (RIM) for Lightweight Structures

Replacing metal components in trucks, trailers, and buses with lightweight polymer composites is challenging due to high temperatures and complex manufacturing. The Reaction Injection Molding (RIM) process using Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) resin offers a solution by producing robust parts with excellent stiffness, impact strength, and resistance properties. Simulations are essential for optimizing this process, predicting defects, and improving quality. However, most commercial software is tailored for thermoplastics, requiring thermoset users to generate their own datasets. In this project, a material data card for DCPD was developed to perform RIM simulations. Design of Experiments (DOE) was used to identify key factors affecting filling, curing, and warpage, aiming to minimize cycle time and defects. The simulations explored varying injection gate parameters (size, location, number) and process conditions (mold/resin temperature, injection/curing pressure). Results showed that gate design significantly impacts filling behavior and defects. A single central gate provided balanced flow with fewer defects, while two corner gates led to more defects. Additionally, lower injection pressure increased filling time, while higher mold temperature accelerated curing but led to more warpage. This optimization framework aims to enhance DCPD part performance and promote sustainable manufacturing by reducing waste and energy consumption. This research has been performed in collaborations with McClarin Composites. The research outcome has been submitted to the Journal of Manufacturing Processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of typical solar years and typical wind years for efficient assessment of renewable energy systems across the U.S.

Weather data plays a critical role in renewable energy analysis. Compared to using multiple Actual Meteorological Years, simulations using a single typical year require significantly fewer computational resources. Previous efforts to create typical weather datasets for renewable energy analysis either lack justified or optimized strategies for selecting and weighting different weather parameters or are limited to a few specific locations. Here, in this study, we developed a dataset comprising Typical Solar Years (TSYs) and Typical Wind Years (TWYs) for over 2000 locations across the U.S., based on data from NASA's POWER project. The strategies for creating TSYs and TWYs were optimized based on the simulated outputs of various PV systems and wind turbines in 16 representative cities. This dataset provides an efficient means for the rapid evaluation and optimization of renewable energy systems throughout the entire U.S. Additionally, the optimal strategies identified in this study can be directly applied to create near-optimal TSYs and TWYs for most locations worldwide. However, readers can also employ the optimization approach presented in this work to develop optimal strategies tailored for particular regions.

NASA POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proxy-based Bayesian inversion of strain tensor data measured during well tests

Recent instrument developments have made it possible to measure the strain tensor caused by injecting or pumping fluid from aquifers or reservoirs, but the full value of these data is limited because the long runtimes of poroelastic forward models makes it impractical to use many inversion schemes. This limits the interpretation of strain data for managing the recovery of resources or storage of wastes in the subsurface. This paper describes a method of inverting deformation data using a poroelastic numerical simulator so the results can be used to manage reservoirs or aquifers. We developed a workflow designed to reduce the number of simulations sufficiently to make it feasible to use DREAMzs, an advanced Bayesian inversion method that translates the uncertainties from different sources into unbiased posterior parameter distributions and uncertainty envelopes around the field data. Using a KNN proxy model for the poroelastic simulator is key to reducing the overall computations, and the workflow includes a strategy for ensuring the proxy model results converge on the results from the simulator. The workflow is tested using an idealized example that verifies the ability to correctly identify parameters and characterize noise used to perturb the data. Field data from an injection test at an oil reservoir near Tulsa, Oklahoma, are also used to evaluate the efficacy of the workflow with a real dataset. The workflow identified 265 history matching solutions out of 1240 total simulation runs (21% acceptance ratio), where the results were used to characterize posterior parameter distribution and evaluate the prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, this workflow is significant because it enables strain tensor, or other geomechanical measurements to be interpreted to guide decision-making during energy and environmental processes in the subsurface.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A neural network for determination of latent dimensionality in Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) has proven to be a powerful unsupervised learning method for uncovering hidden features in complex and noisy datasets with applications in data mining, text recognition, dimension reduction, face recognition, anomaly detection, blind source separation, and many other fields. An important input for NMF is the latent dimensionality of the data, that is, the number of hidden features, K, present in the explored dataset. Unfortunately, and this quantity is rarely known a priori. The existing methods for determining latent dimensionality, such as Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD), are mostly heuristic and utilize different characteristics to estimate the number of hidden features. However, all of them require human presence to make a final determination of K. Here we utilize a supervised machine learning approach in combination with a recent method for model determination, called NMFk, to determine the number of hidden features automatically. NMFk performs a set of NMF simulations on an ensemble of matrices, obtained by bootstrapping the initial dataset, and estimates which K produces stable groups of latent features that reconstruct the initial dataset well. We then train a Multi-Layter Perceptron (MLP) classifier network to determine the correct number of latent features utilizing the statistics and characteristics of the NMF solution, obtained from NMFk. In order to train the MLP classifier, a training set of 58,660 matrices with predetermined latent features were factorized with NMFk. The MLP classifier in conjunction with NMFk maintains a greater than 95% success rate when applied to a held out test set. Additionally, when applied to two well-known benchmark datasets, the swimmer and MIT face data, NMFk/MLP correctly recovers the established number of hidden features. Finally, we compare the accuracy of our method to the ARD, AIC and Stability-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of Arctic Warming in Mid-Pliocene Climate Simulations

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Palaeoclimate simulations↗
DOE OSTI2019

Criticality Accident Alarm System Shielding Benchmark: Integral Experiment Request 498, Critical Engineering Decision 1 Report

This report supports Critical/Subcritical Experiment Decision 1 (CED-1) for Integral Experiment Request (IER) 498, a shielding benchmark produced using the Godiva IV critical assembly at the National Critical Experiments Research Center (NCERC). Shielding benchmarks are datasets collected to provide a comparison for computer models that simulate the effect of shielding on radiation transmission from a source to a detector. The purpose of a CED-1 report is to produce a conceptual design for an integral experiment and to identify the long lead-time items. The design presented in this report favors certain detailed design options such as material selections. However, alternative options can be selected as the project evolves. Dimensions are specified only as needed to evaluate feasibility and performance. Development of Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) shielding benchmarks supports two main programmatic needs. The first need is to improve confidence in models of facilities that house nuclear material handling operations. Better models can support effective CAAS detector placement when criticality may result in dose, and it enables more accurate analysis of criticality accident impacts at various locations in a facility. A key quantity that can be verified is the secondary gamma production caused by neutron interactions with various materials. The second programmatic need supported by shielding benchmarks is the ongoing development of methods being integrated into nuclear simulation codes such as the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport code and the SCALE code system used in efforts funded by the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). Previous work performed under the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experimental Program (ICSBEP) to produce shielding benchmark data is primarily limited to a set of measurements at the SILENE critical assembly at the Valduc facility in France. The experiment used an open configuration and a burst mode operation, which limited detector options to thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and activation foils. Because TLDs do not record gamma spectra, it was difficult to verify the gamma energy spectrum from the experiment. In this work, the Godiva IV assembly will be used because it is a fast system capable of producing a wide range of source strengths, including super-prompt critical bursts. The room return for the facility is expected to be substantial and challenging to characterize, so a more closed, shielded experimental configuration is considered. Furthermore, because the physics of radiation transport outside the assembly does not change between the burst mode and the delayed critical mode, it is anticipated that most measurements will be made with the Godiva IV assembly in delayed critical mode, operating within a range that will allow electronic counters to collect accurate data. Scoping calculations concluded that a workable room return shield is comprised of 40 cm of 5% borated polyethylene backed by 7 cm of lead. This configuration was shown to produce a ratio of signal–to–room return of over 100 for up to 2 mean free paths of shield sample material, and over 10 for up to 4 mean free paths of shield sample material, ensuring that useful results can be obtained. With no shielding sample in the room return shield, it was shown that the neutron and gamma spectra do not appreciably change with a change in room size. This scoping calculation does not preclude the use of tungsten powder in a binder, some other effective gamma shielding material, or a hybrid design. Dose rates for various source intensities at an unshielded detector are listed herein to inform detector selection during CED-2, and calibration chains are identified. Preliminary estimates of costs and schedules are outlined but remain to be verified. Values could double or triple as estimates become more accurate and are principally included here to demonstrate feasibility. Preliminary estimates indicate that the apparatus can be installed within a feasible schedule and budget. Two measurements per day are assumed. Producing a shielding benchmark at NCERC using the Godiva IV assembly has been shown to be feasible, with manageable uncertainties and risks. A clear, continuing need for shielding benchmark data remains present, and this report identifies and evaluates a method for creating integrated shielding benchmark datasets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change activities play a critical role in Earth system dynamics through significant alterations to biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties at local to global scales. To quantify the magnitude of these impacts, climate models need consistent land-cover change time series at a global scale, based on land-use information from observations or dedicated land-use change models. However, a specific land-use change cannot be unambiguously mapped to a specific land-cover change. Here, nine translation rules are evaluated based on assumptions about the way land-use change could potentially impact land cover. Utilizing the Global Land-use Model 2 (GLM2), the model underlying the latest Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), the land-cover dynamics resulting from land-use change were simulated based on multiple alternative translation rules from 850 to 2015 globally. For each rule, the resulting forest cover, carbon density and carbon emissions were compared with independent estimates from remote sensing observations, U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization reports, and other studies. The translation rule previously suggested by the authors of the HYDE 3.2 dataset, that underlies LUH2, is consistent with the results of our examinations at global, country and grid scales. This rule recommends that for CMIP6 simulations, models should (1) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary and secondary land (including both forested and non-forested) to cropland, urban land and managed pasture; (2) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary forest and/or secondary forest to rangeland; (3) keep vegetation inland-use changes from primary non-forest and/or secondary non-forest to rangeland. Our analysis shows that this rule is one of three (out of nine)rules that produce comparable estimates of forest cover, vegetation carbon and emissions to independent estimates and also mitigate the anomalously high carbon emissions from land-use change observed in previous studies in the 1950s. According to the three translation rules, contemporary global forest area is estimated to be 37.42×106 km2, within the range derived from remote sensing products. Likewise, the estimated carbon stock is in close agreement with reference biomass datasets, particularly over regions with more than 50 % forest cover

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Clouds, Radiation, and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Global Weather States Derived from ISCCP-H Cloud Property Data

A clustering methodology is applied to cloud optical depth cloud top pressure (TAU-PC) histograms from the new, 1-degree resolution, ISCCP-H dataset, to derive an updated global Weather State (WS) dataset. Then, PC-TAU histograms from current-climate CMIP6 model simulations are assigned to the ISCCP-H WSs along with their concurrent radiation and precipitation properties, to evaluate model cloud, radiation, and precipitation properties in the context of the Weather States. The new ISCCP-H analysis produces WSs that are very similar to those previously found in the lower resolution ISCCP-D dataset. The main difference lies in the splitting of the ISCCP-D thin stratocumulus WS between the ISCCP-H shallow cumulus and stratocumulus WSs, which results in the reduction by one of the total WS number. The evaluation of the CMIP6 models against the ISCCP-H Weather States, shows that, in the ensemble mean, the models are producing an adequate representation of the frequency and geographical distribution of the WSs, with measurable improvements compared to the WSs derived for the CMIP5 ensemble. However, the frequency of shallow cumulus clouds continues to be underestimated, and, in some WSs the good agreement of the ensemble mean with observations comes from averaging models that significantly overpredict and underpredict the ISCCP-H WS frequency. In addition, significant biases exist in the internal cloud properties of the model WSs, such as the model underestimation of cloud fraction in middle-top clouds and secondarily in midlatitude storm and stratocumulus clouds, that result in an underestimation of cloud SW cooling in those regimes.

Clouds↗