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Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

The Roughness Properties of Small Ice-Bearing Craters at the South Pole of the Moon: Implications for Accessing Fresh Water Ice in Future Surface Operations

The lunar poles provide a fascinating thermal environment capable of cold-trapping water ice on geologic timescales [1]. While there have been many observations indicating the presence of water ice at the lunar surface [e.g., 2–4], it is still not clear when this ice was delivered to the Moon. The timing of volatile dep-osition provides important constraints on the origin of lunar ice because different delivery mechanisms have been active at different times throughout lunar history. We previously found that some small (<10 km) cra-ters at the south pole of the Moon have morphologies suggestive of relatively young ages, on the basis of crisp crater rims [5]. These craters are too small to date with robust cratering statistics [5], but the possibility of ice in young craters is intriguing because it suggests that there is some recent and perhaps ongoing mechanism that is delivering or redistributing water to polar cold traps. Therefore, understanding if these small, ice-bear-ing craters are indeed young is essential in understand-ing the age and source of volatiles on the Moon. Here we take a new approach to understand the ages of these small polar cold traps: analyzing the roughness properties of small ice-bearing craters. It is well under-stood that impact crater properties (e.g., morphology, rock abundance, and roughness) evolve with time due to a variety of geologic and space-weathering processes [6–11]. Topographic roughness is a measurement of the local deviation from the mean topography, providing a measurement of surface texture, and is a powerful tool for evaluating surface evolution over geologic time [e.g., 11–14]. In this study we analyze the roughness of southern lunar craters (40°S–90°S) from all geologic eras, and determine how the roughness of small (<10 km) ice-bearing craters compare. We discuss the implications of the ages of ice-bearing south polar craters, and potential strategies for accessing fresh ice on the Moon.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗

Normalized vertical ice mass flux profiles from vertically pointing 8-mm-wavelength Doppler radar

During the FIRE 2 (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment) project, NOAA's Wave Propagation Laboratory (WPL) operated its 8-mm wavelength Doppler radar extensively in the vertically pointing mode. This allowed for the calculation of a number of important cirrus cloud parameters, including cloud boundary statistics, cloud particle characteristic sizes and concentrations, and ice mass content (imc). The flux of imc, or, alternatively, ice mass flux (imf), is also an important parameter of a cirrus cloud system. Ice mass flux is important in the vertical redistribution of water substance and thus, in part, determines the cloud evolution. It is important for the development of cloud parameterizations to be able to define the essential physical characteristics of large populations of clouds in the simplest possible way. One method would be to normalize profiles of observed cloud properties, such as those mentioned above, in ways similar to those used in the convective boundary layer. The height then scales from 0.0 at cloud base to 1.0 at cloud top, and the measured cloud parameter scales by its maximum value so that all normalized profiles have 1.0 as their maximum value. The goal is that there will be a 'universal' shape to profiles of the normalized data. This idea was applied to estimates of imf calculated from data obtained by the WPL cloud radar during FIRE II. Other quantities such as median particle diameter, concentration, and ice mass content can also be estimated with this radar, and we expect to also examine normalized profiles of these quantities in time for the 1993 FIRE II meeting.

Orr, Brad W.↗

The 13th Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the SDSS-IV Survey Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory

Here, the fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) began observations in 2014 July. It pursues three core programs: the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2), Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA), and the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). As well as its core program, eBOSS contains two major subprograms: the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS) and the SPectroscopic IDentification of ERosita Sources (SPIDERS). This paper describes the first data release from SDSS-IV, Data Release 13 (DR13). DR13 makes publicly available the first 1390 spatially resolved integral field unit observations of nearby galaxies from MaNGA. It includes new observations from eBOSS, completing the Sloan Extended QUasar, Emission-line galaxy, Luminous red galaxy Survey (SEQUELS), which also targeted variability-selected objects and X-ray-selected objects. DR13 includes new reductions of the SDSS-III BOSS data, improving the spectrophotometric calibration and redshift classification, and new reductions of the SDSS-III APOGEE-1 data, improving stellar parameters for dwarf stars and cooler stars. DR13 provides more robust and precise photometric calibrations. Value-added target catalogs relevant for eBOSS, TDSS, and SPIDERS and an updated red-clump catalog for APOGEE are also available. This paper describes the location and format of the data and provides references to important technical papers. The SDSS web site provides links to the data, tutorials, examples of data access, and extensive documentation of the reduction and analysis procedures. DR13 is the first of a scheduled set that will contain new data and analyses from the planned ~6 yr operations of SDSS-IV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong shear length Lss, the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 Guass (G)) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 degrees), and (2) that L(sub ss) is well correlated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity of the active regions during the plus or minus 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub ss) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G), and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with Lss (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active region CME productivity as is L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour cadence full disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Airborne and Ground-Based Measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth of Freshly Emitted Anthropogenic Plumes in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region

In this work we report the airborne aerosol optical depth (AOD) from measurements within freshly emitted anthropogenic plumes arising from mining and processing operations in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in the context of ground-based AERONET climatological daily averaged AODs at Fort McMurray (Alberta, Canada). During two flights on 9 and 18 June 2018, the NASA airborne 4STAR (Spectrometers for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research) Sun photometer registered high fine-mode (FM, <1 µm) in-plume AODs of up to 0.4 and 0.9, respectively, in the vicinity of the plume source (<20 km). Particle composition shows that the plumes were associated with elevated concentrations of sulfates and ammonium. These high AODs significantly exceed climatological averages for June and were not captured by the nearby AERONET instrument (mean daily AODs of 0.10±0.01 and 0.07±0.02, maximum AOD of 0.12) due possibly to horizontal inhomogeneity of the plumes, plume dilution and winds which in certain cases were carrying the plume away from the ground-based instrument. The average 4STAR out-of-plume (background) AODs deviated only marginally from AERONET daily averaged values. While 4STAR AOD peaks were generally well correlated in time with peaks in the in situ-measured particle concentrations, we show that differences in particle size are the dominant factor in determining the 4STAR-derived AOD. During the two flights of 24 June and 5 July 2018 when plumes likely travelled distances of 60 km or more, the average 4STAR FM AOD increased by 0.01–0.02 over ∼50 km of downwind particle evolution, which was supported by the increases in layer AODs calculated from the in situ extinction measurements. Based on these observations as well as the increases in organic mass, we attribute the observed AOD increase, at least in part, to secondary organic aerosol formation. The in-plume and out-of-plume AODs for this second pair of flights, in contrast to clear differences in in situ optical and other measurements, were practically indistinguishable and compared favourably to AERONET within 0.01–0.02 AOD. This means that AERONET was generally successful in capturing the background AODs, but missed some of the spatially constrained high-AOD plumes with sources as close as 30–50 km, which is important to note since the AERONET measurements are generally thought to be representative of the regional AOD loading. The fact that industrial plumes can be associated with significantly higher AODs in the vicinity of the emission sources than previously reported from AERONET can potentially have an effect on estimating the AOSR radiative impact.

AERONET↗

Multifold Insights for Power System Dynamics From Data Assimilation: Meeting Current Challenges

The world’s electric power grids have evolved over the last 120 years from a single power line to today’s large networks. The evolution will continue at an accelerated rate with extensive smart grid development worldwide. Here for example, the U.S. government has set a goal of reaching 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, while the Department of Energy (DOE) shared a goal to deploy 30 GW and 110 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 2050, respectively. To meet such ambitious goals, in the years to come, a significant percentage of electricity will come from intermittent renewable sources, electric vehicles (EVs), and be supplied to a vast number of loads that will actively respond to grid conditions and incentive signals. This development is largely driven by environmental and economic factors, such as reducing carbon emissions and saving electricity cost for consumers. These energy resources lead to new uncertain behaviors and dynamics which the grid has never seen and were not considered in its design. Operating such a dynamic grid with sufficient reliability and efficiency is a monumental challenge.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The GOES-R GeoStationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved capability for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) will map total lightning activity (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground lighting flashes) continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency among a number of potential applications. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms (environmental data records), cal/val performance monitoring tools, and new applications using GLM alone, in combination with the ABI, merged with ground-based sensors, and decision aids augmented by numerical weather prediction model forecasts. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. An international field campaign planned for 2011-2012 will produce concurrent observations from a VHF lightning mapping array, Meteosat multi-band imagery, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) overpasses, and related ground and in-situ lightning and meteorological measurements in the vicinity of Sao Paulo. These data will provide a new comprehensive proxy data set for algorithm and application development.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Monitoring Volcanoes by Use of Air-Dropped Sensor Packages

Sensor packages that would be dropped from airplanes have been proposed for pre-eruption monitoring of physical conditions on the flanks of awakening volcanoes. The purpose of such monitoring is to gather data that could contribute to understanding and prediction of the evolution of volcanic systems. Each sensor package, denoted a volcano monitoring system (VMS), would include a housing with a parachute attached at its upper end and a crushable foam impact absorber at its lower end (see figure). The housing would contain survivable low-power instrumentation that would include a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, an inclinometer, a seismometer, a barometer, a thermometer, and CO2 and SO2 analyzers. The housing would also contain battery power, control, data-logging, and telecommunication subsystems. The proposal for the development of the VMS calls for the use of commercially available sensor, power, and telecommunication equipment, so that efforts could be focused on integrating all of the equipment into a system that could survive impact and operate thereafter for 30 days, transmitting data on the pre-eruptive state of a target volcano to a monitoring center. In a typical scenario, VMSs would be dropped at strategically chosen locations on the flanks of a volcano once the volcano had been identified as posing a hazard from any of a variety of observations that could include eyewitness reports, scientific observations from positions on the ground, synthetic-aperture-radar scans from aircraft, and/or remote sensing from aboard spacecraft. Once dropped, the VMSs would be operated as a network of in situ sensors that would transmit data to a local monitoring center. This network would provide observations as part of an integrated volcano-hazard assessment strategy that would involve both remote sensing and timely observations from the in situ sensors. A similar strategy that involves the use of portable sensors (but not dropping of sensors from aircraft) is already in use in the Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP), which was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance to respond to volcanic crises around the world. The VMSs would add a greatly needed capability that would enable VDAP response teams to deploy their volcano-monitoring equipment in a more timely manner with less risk to personnel in the field.

Kedar, Sharon↗

A synoptic-scale overview of the TOGA COARE intensive observing period November 1992 to February 1993 based on analyses from US operational global data assimilation systems

The operational global analyses from the two major U.S. numerical weather prediction centers, the Navy's Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center and the National Meteorological Center, are used to describe the synoptic-scale features of the 1 Nov. 1992 to 28 Feb. 1993 TOGA COARE intensive observing period (IOP). TOGA COARE is an international field experiment in which a large number of research scientists from the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (Code 910) and the Laboratory for Hydrospheres (Code 970) participated. Two high-amplitude intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations passed through the TOGA COARE observational network located in the equatorial western Pacific. Associated with the oscillations were two 6-10 day periods of persistent westerly surface winds at the equator or 'westerly wind bursts.' These events are depicted through time series and time-longitude cross sections of divergence/velocity potential, surface winds, precipitation, ocean mixed-layer depth, and sea surface temperature. The high and low frequency components of the flow in which the intraseasonal oscillations were embedded are shown using seasonal, monthly, and 5-day averages of the surface, 850 and 200 mb winds, precipitation, and sea-level pressure, and a time-longitude cross section of tropical cyclone activity. Independent verification of precipitation comes from near real-time satellite estimates, and a reference climatology is given based on 9 years of ECMWF analyses. Daily 00 UTC analyses of surface winds and sea-level pressure for the entire western Pacific and Indian Ocean are provided to trace the evolution of individual synoptic events.

Fiorino, M.↗

2020 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns. The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report includes an update to the baseline drawdowns for each cavern, and provides an initial assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and (2) that L(sub SS) is well correlated with the CME productivity of the active regions during the +/- 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub SS) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G) and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than or approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active-region CME productivity as is L(sub SS)(correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour-cadence full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active-region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Combining the mapping Hamiltonian linearized semiclassical approach with the generalized quantum master equation to simulate electronically nonadiabatic molecular dynamics

The generalized quantum master equation (GQME) provides a powerful framework for simulating electronically nonadiabatic molecular dynamics. Within this framework, the effect of the nuclear degrees of freedom on the time evolution of the electronic reduced density matrix is fully captured by a memory kernel superoperator. In this paper, we consider two different procedures for calculating the memory kernel of the GQME from projection-free inputs obtained via the combination of the mapping Hamiltonian (MH) approach and the linearized semiclassical (LSC) approximation. Here, the accuracy and feasibility of the two procedures are demonstrated on the spin-boson model. We find that although simulating the electronic dynamics by direct application of the two LSC-based procedures leads to qualitatively different results that become increasingly less accurate with increasing time, restricting their use to calculating the memory kernel leads to an accurate description of the electronic dynamics. Comparison with a previously proposed procedure for calculating the memory kernel via the Ehrenfest method reveals that MH/LSC methods produce memory kernels that are better behaved at long times and lead to more accurate electronic dynamics

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cyclotron maser and plasma wave growth in magnetic loops

Cyclotron maser and plasma wave growth which results from electrons accelerated in magnetic loops are studied. The evolution of the accelerated electron distribution is determined by solving the kinetic equation including Coulomb collisions and magnetic convergence. It is found that for modest values of the column depth of the loop the growth rates of instabilities are significantly reduced and that the reduction is much larger for the cyclotron modes than for the plasma wave modes. The large decrease in the growth rate with column depth suggests that solar coronal densities must be much lower than commonly accepted in order for the cyclotron maser to operate. The density depletion has to be similar to that which occurs during auroral kilometric radiation events in the magnetosphere. The resulting distributions are much more complicated than the idealized distributions used in many theoretical studies, but the fastest growing mode can still simply be determined by the ratio of electron plasma to gyrofrequency, U=omega(sub p)/Omega(sub e). However, the dominant modes are different than for the idealized situations with growth of the z-mode largest for U approximately less than 0.5, and second harmonic x-mode (s=2) or fundamental o-mode (s=1) the dominant modes for 0.5 approximately less than U approximately less than 1. The electron distributions typically contain more than one inverted feature which could give rise to wave growth. It is shown that this can result in simultaneous amplification of more than one mode with each mode driven by a different feature and can be observed, for example, by differences in the rise times of the right and left circularly polarized components of the associated spike bursts.

Hamilton, Russell J.↗

Pre-Launch Algorithms and Risk Reduction in Support of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R and Beyond

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical transient event detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational.The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous,full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 13 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies were completed in March 2007 and the implementation phase to develop a prototype model and up to four flight units is expected to begin in latter part of the year. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2B algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sate]lite and regional test beds (e.g., Lightning Mapping Arrays in North Alabama and the Washington DC Metropolitan area) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data provided to selected National Weather Service forecast offices in Southern and Eastern Region are also improving our understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and help to accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Abstract for the 3 rd Conference on Meteorological

Goodman, Steven↗

Comparison of Computed and Measured Performance of a Pulsed Inductive Thruster Operating on Argon Propellant

Pulsed inductive plasma accelerators are electrodeless space propulsion devices where a capacitor is charged to an initial voltage and then discharged through a coil as a high-current pulse that inductively couples energy into the propellant. The field produced by this pulse ionizes the propellant, producing a plasma near the face of the coil. Once a plasma is formed if can be accelerated and expelled at a high exhaust velocity by the Lorentz force arising from the interaction of an induced plasma current and the magnetic field. A recent review of the developmental history of planar-geometry pulsed inductive thrusters, where the coil take the shape of a flat spiral, can be found in Ref. [1]. Two concepts that have employed this geometry are the Pulsed Inductive Thruster (PIT)[2, 3] and the Faraday Accelerator with Radio-frequency Assisted Discharge (FARAD)[4]. There exists a 1-D pulsed inductive acceleration model that employs a set of circuit equations coupled to a one-dimensional momentum equation. The model was originally developed and used by Lovberg and Dailey[2, 3] and has since been nondimensionalized and used by Polzin et al.[5, 6] to define a set of scaling parameters and gain general insight into their effect on thruster performance. The circuit presented in Fig. 1 provides a description of the electrical coupling between the current flowing in the thruster I1 and the plasma current I2. Recently, the model was upgraded to include an equation governing the deposition of energy into various modes present in a pulsed inductive thruster system (acceleration, magnetic flux generation, resistive heating, etc.)[7]. An MHD description of the plasma energy density evolution was tailored to the thruster geometry by assuming only one-dimensional motion and averaging the plasma properties over the spatial dimensions of the current sheet to obtain an equation for the time-evolution of the total energy. The equation set governing the dynamics of the coupled electrodynamic-current sheet system is composed of first-order, coupled ordinary differential equations that can be easily solved numerically without having to resort to much more complex 2-D finite element plasma simulations.

Polzin, Kurt A.↗

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2021 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPRs ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar - to - diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the caverns drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns .

02 PETROLEUM↗

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2022 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of a vailable drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the s tructural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite - element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns.

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