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Radiation Effects on Mortality from Solid Cancers Other than Lung, Liver, and Bone Cancer in the Mayak Worker Cohort: 1948–2008

Radiation effects on mortality from solid cancers other than lung, liver, and bone cancer in the Mayak worker cohort: 1948–2008. The cohort of Mayak Production Association (PA) workers in Russia offers a unique opportunity to study the effects of prolonged low dose rate external gamma exposures and exposure to plutonium in a working age population. We examined radiation effects on the risk of mortality from solid cancers excluding sites of primary plutonium deposition (lung, liver, and bone surface) among 25,757 workers who were first employed in 1948–1982. During the period 1948–2008, there were 1,825 deaths from cancers other than lung, liver and bone. Using colon dose as a representative external dose, a linear dose response model described the data well. The excess relative risk per Gray for external gamma exposure was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.07 – 0.26) when unadjusted for plutonium exposure and 0.12 (95% CI 0.03 – 0.21) when adjusted for plutonium dose and monitoring status. There was no significant effect modification by sex or attained age. Plutonium exposure was not significantly associated with the group of cancers analyzed after adjusting for monitoring status. Site-specific risks were uncertainly estimated but positive for 13 of the 15 sites evaluated with a statistically significant estimate only for esophageal cancer. Comparison with estimates based on the acute exposures in atomic bomb survivors suggests that the excess relative risk per Gray for prolonged external exposure in Mayak workers may be lower than that for acute exposure but, given the uncertainties, the possibility of equal effects cannot be dismissed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The first brown dwarf/planetary-mass object in the 32 Orionis group

The 32 Orionis group is a co-moving group of roughly 20 young (24 Myr) M3-B5 stars 100 pc from the Sun. Here we report the discovery of its first substellar member, WISE J052857.69+090104.2. This source was previously reported to be an M giant star based on its unusual near-infrared spectrum and lack of measureable proper motion. We re-analyze previous data and new moderate-resolution spectroscopy from Magellan/Folded-port InfraRed Echellette to demonstrate that this source is a young near-infrared L1 brown dwarf with very low surface gravity features. Spectral model fits indicate T{sub eff} = 1880{sub −70}{sup +150} K and logg = 3.8{sub −0.2}{sup +0.2}, consistent with a 15–22 Myr object with a mass near the deuterium-burning limit. Its sky position, estimated distance, kinematics (both proper motion and radial velocity), and spectral characteristics are all consistent with membership in 32 Orionis, and its temperature and age imply a mass (M = 14{sub −3}{sup +4} M{sub J}) that straddles the brown dwarf/planetary-mass object boundary. The source has a somewhat red J−W2 color compared to other L1 dwarfs, but this is likely a low-gravity-related temperature offset; we find no evidence of significant excess reddening from a disk or cool companion in the 3–5 μm waveband.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Late Holocene glacier and climate fluctuations in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain ranges, northwestern Canada

Over the last century, northwestern Canada experienced some of the highest rates of tropospheric warming globally, which caused glaciers in the region to rapidly retreat. Our study seeks to extend the record of glacier fluctuations and assess climate drivers prior to the instrumental record in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountains of northwestern Canada. We collected 27 10 Be surface exposure ages across nine cirque and valley glacier moraines to constrain the timing of their emplacement. Cirque and valley glaciers in this region reached their greatest Holocene extents in the latter half of the Little Ice Age (1600–1850 CE). Four erratic boulders, 10–250 m distal from late Holocene moraines, yielded 10 Be exposure ages of 10.9–11.6 ka, demonstrating that by ca. 11 ka, alpine glaciers were no more extensive than during the last several hundred years. Estimated temperature change obtained through reconstruction of equilibrium line altitudes shows that since ca. 1850 CE, mean annual temperatures have risen 0.2–2.3 °C. We use our glacier chronology and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to estimate that from 1000 CE, glaciers in this region reached a maximum total volume of 34–38 km 3 between 1765 and 1855 CE and had lost nearly half their ice volume by 2019 CE. OGGM was unable to produce modeled glacier lengths that match the timing or magnitude of the maximum glacier extent indicated by the 10 Be chronology. However, when applied to the entire Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain region, past millennium OGGM simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) yield late Holocene glacier volume change temporally consistent with our moraine and remote sensing record, while the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model 2 (MRI-ESM2) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) fail to produce modeled glacier change consistent with our glacier chronology. Finally, OGGM forced by future climate projections under varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios predicts 85 % to over 97 % glacier volume loss by the end of the 21st century. The loss of glaciers from this region will have profound impacts on local ecosystems and communities that rely on meltwater from glacierized catchments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metal-poor stars. IV - The evolution of red giants.

Detailed evolutionary calculations for six Population-II red giants are presented. The first five of these models are followed from the zero age main sequence to the onset of the helium flash. The sixth model allows the effect of direct electron-neutrino interactions to be estimated. The updated input physics and evolutionary code are described briefly. The results of the calculations are presented in a manner pertinent to later stages of evolutions and suitable for comparison with observations.

Rood, R. T.↗

On isostasy at Atlantic-type continental margins

The concept of isostasy describes the manner in which topographic features on the earth's surface are compensated at depth. The present investigation is concerned with the isostatic mechanism at Atlantic-type continental margins. Particular attention is given to the question whether the flexure model of isostasy, which has successfully been used at other geological features in oceans, is applicable at margins. Cross-spectral techniques are used to analyze the relationship between free air gravity and topography at Atlantic-type continental margins. The relatively old eastern North America is found to be associated with the highest value of the effective elastic thickness in the range 10-20 km, while the relatively young Coral Sea/Lord Howe rise is associated with the lowest value of less than 5 km. The differences in estimates of effective elastic thickness between margins can be explained by a simple model in which the flexural strength of the basement increases with age.

Karner, G. D.↗

The negative gravity field over the 85 deg E ridge

Two north-south ridges in the basement topography of the Bay of Bengal may be observed on an isopach map at 85 and at 90 deg E. Free-air gravity anomaly profiles across the region show a strong gravity low (about -60 mGal) over the 85 deg E ridge, and a gravity high over the other. Using a simple two-stage loading model, the negative gravity anomaly over the 85 deg E ridge is explained as a direct consequence of sediment loading, and the flexural rigidity of the lithosphere when the ridge was formed is estimated to have been about 180 times less than the flexural rigidity during the sediment loading. An approximate relationship between flexural rigidity and crustal age shows that the 85 deg E ridge was formed on relatively young lithosphere, 5-15 million years old, and that it was buried when the lithosphere was 40-80 million years old. The alteration of the gravity field by a thick layer of sediments may occur in other large sedimentary basins or along continental margins.

Liu, C.-S.↗

Metamorphic P-T paths and Precambrian crustal growth in East Antarctica

The metamorphic constraints on crustal thicknesses in Archean and post-Archean terranes are summarized along with possible implications for tectonic processes. It is important to recognize that P-T estimates represent perturbed conditions and should not be used to estimate steady state geothermal gradients or crustal thicknesses. The example is cited of the Dora Maira complex in the French Alps, where crustal rocks record conditions of 35 kbar and 800 C, implying their subduction to depths of 100 km or more, followed by subsequent uplift to the surface. Therefore such P-T estimates tell more about processes than crustal thicknesses. More importantly, according to the author, are determinations of P-T paths, particularly coupled with age measurements, because these may provide constraints on how and when perturbed conditions relax back to steady state conditions. P-T paths are illustrated that should be expected from specific tectonic processes, including Tibetan style collision, with and without subsequent extension, rifting of thin or thickened crust, and magmatic accretion. Growth of new crust, associated with magmatic accretion, for example, could possibly be monitored with these P-T paths.

Harley, S. L.↗

An X-ray study of five supernova remnants in the Carina spiral arm

The ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) is used to perform an exploratory study of four fields in the Carina spiral arm containing five radio supernova remnants, only one of which has previously been studied in X-rays. We present upper limits for the detection in X-rays of G298.5 - 0.3, G298.6 - 0.0, and G299.0+0.2, and report a 4 sigma detection of G296.8-0.3. In addition, we present detailed spatial and spectral analysis of the bright X-ray remnant G296.1-0.7, which has previously been studied by both the Einstein IPC and EXOSAT LE/CMA. We detect relatively slight, but statistically significant, variations in the spectrum across the remnant via spatially resolved spectral fits and a study of the spatial variation of hardness ratios. In general, the spectrum is characteristic of a thermal plasma with kT about 0.2 keV and N(sub H) about 1.5 x 10(exp 21/sq. cm). The total X-ray emitting mass is estimated to be about 250 solar mass for an optically estimated distance of 4 kpc to the remnant. At this distance, the linear dimensions of the remnant are roughly 35 - 50 pc, implying an age on the order of 20,000 yr. Assuming that X-ray and radio brightnesses are related by SIGMA(sub R) proportional to SIGMA(exp 0.69)(sub X) and that the four radio remnants have X-ray spectral characteristics similar to G296.1-0.7, we find that the column densities to these sources must be several times 10(exp 22)/sq cm in order to explain their low X-ray count rates. This column density is considerably in excess of the X-ray fitted column density to G296.1-0.7, but is comparable to the total column densities in H I measured via the 21 cm line in the directions to all five remnants. This implies that G296.1 - 0.7 is at a significantly smaller distance than the other remnants.

Hwang, Una↗

Decline in Aerobic Fitness After Long-Term Stays on the International Space Station

U.S. and non-Russian International Partner astronauts who participate in long-term International Space Station (ISS) expeditions perform submaximal cycle exercise tests before, during, and after space flight. The heart rate (HR) and oxygen uptake (VO2) responses to exercise are used to estimate peak VO2 (EVO2pk). Purpose: To determine if the following factors are associated with the preflight-to-post flight change in EVO2pk: gender, age, body weight (BW), number of aerobic exercise sessions/wk- during flight, length of flight, EVO2pk measured before and late during the flight, ISS Expedition number and time between landing and the first post flight test. Methods: Records of 37 ISS astronauts (30 male, BW=81.6 plus or minus 8.6 kg; 7 female BW=66.1 plus or minus 4.9 kg [mean plus or minus SD]), age 46 plus or minus 4 years, were retrospectively examined. Peak HR and VO2 were measured approximately 9 months before flight to establish the test protocol. The submaximal cycle test consisted of three 5-minute stages designed to elicit 25, 50, and 75% of VO2pk. EVO2pk was calculated using linear least-squares extrapolation of average HR and VO2 during the last minute of each stage to predict VO2 at maximal HR. VO2 was not measured during flight and was assumed to not be different from preflight. Testing was performed 45 days before launch, late during flight, and during the week after landing. A random-intercept multivariate model was used to determine which characteristics significantly contributed to post flight EVO2pk. Results: In-flight aerobic exercise averaged 5.4 plus or minus 1.2 sessions/wk. ISS flight duration averaged 163 plus or minus 39 d. Mean EVO2pk values were 3.41 plus or minus 0.64 L (raised dot) per minute before flight, 3.09 plus or minus 0.57 L (raised dot) per minute late in flight, and 3.02 plus or minus 0.65 L (raised dot) per minute after flight. Late- and after-flight values were lower (p less than 0.05) than preflight values and did not differ from each other. Time between landing and post flight testing was 4.5 plus or minus 1.6 days. The only factor significantly associated with the post flight EVO2pk value was the late-flight EVO2pk score. Conclusion: Testing performed late during a mission provides a prediction of EVO2pk after landing. This approach may be implemented during longer missions.

Lynn, Peggy A.↗

Direct Imaging Discovery of A Super-Jupiter Around the Late B-Type Star K And*

We present the direct imaging discovery of an extrasolar planet, or possible low-mass brown dwarf, at a projected separation of 55 plus or minus 2 AU (1."058 plus or minus 0."007) from the B9-type star K And. The planet was detected with Subaru/HiCIAO (Subaru/High Contrast Instrument for the Subaru Next Generation Adaptive Optics) during the SEEDS (Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru Telescope/HiCIAO) survey and confirmed as a bound companion via common proper motion measurements. Observed near-infrared magnitudes of J equals 16.3 plus or minus 0.3, H equals 15.2 plus or minus 0.2, K (sub s) = 14.6 plus or minus 0.4, and L prime equals 13.12 plus or minus 0.09 indicate a temperature of approximately 1700 degrees Kelvin. The galactic kinematics of the host star are consistent with membership in the Columba Association, implying a corresponding age of 30 (exp from plus 20 to minus10) Myr. The systems age, combined with the companion photometry, points to a model-dependent companion mass approximately 12.8 times the mass of Jupiter. The host stars estimated mass of 2.4 to 2.5 times the mass of the sun places it among the most massive stars ever known to harbor an extrasolar planet or low-mass brown dwarf. While the mass of the companion is close to the deuterium burning limit, its mass ratio, orbital separation, and likely planet-like formation scenario imply that it may be best defined as a super-Jupiter with properties similar to other recently discovered companions to massive stars.

HiCIAO↗

Concrete structural health monitoring in nuclear power plants - 212

Assessment and management of aging concrete structures in nuclear power plants require a more systematic approach than simple reliance on existing code margins of safety. Health monitoring of concrete structures is performed in order to understand the current condition of a structure based on heterogeneous measurements and produce high-confidence actionable information regarding structural integrity. This information can be used to support operational and maintenance decisions. This paper describes a framework of research activities for health monitoring of nuclear power plant concrete structures. The proposed framework consists of four elements: (1) health monitoring, (2) data analytics, (3) uncertainty quantification, and (4) prognosis. The goal of this framework is to enable plant operators to make risk-informed decisions about structural integrity, remaining useful life, and performance of concrete structures across the nuclear fleet. Among several concrete degradations, research focuses on degradation caused by the alkali-silica reaction (ASR). ASR is a chemical reaction that, in the presence of sufficient moisture, forms a gel that increases in volume and exerts an expansive pressure inside the material, thus causing micro to macro-cracks. This paper also presents development of controlled concrete samples with reactive aggregates to cause ASR degradation and application of different non-destructive evaluation techniques to detect the damage caused by ASR. Initial results are presented in the paper along with a potential path forward. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Non-nuclear Component Signatures for Warhead Dismantlement Confirmation

The verification of warhead dismantlement is expected to be an important component in future arms reduction treaties. Historic approaches developed with future arms control treaty verification in mind often involve intrusive measurements, process monitoring, and/or inspector presence to provide confidence that an authentic warhead has been dismantled. This work explores the possibility of reducing the negative impacts of these invasive approaches while also delivering a method that is more likely to provide non-sensitive data that can be shared with not only other nuclear weapons states but also non-nuclear weapons states partners. This work explores a novel approach for verifying dispositioned non-nuclear weapon components, providing confidence post-dismantlement that a treaty accountable item that was dismantled was in fact a treaty-relevant nuclear weapon system as declared. This method provides an alternative to intrusive inspection processes in nuclear weapons production environments, which would require significant changes to the host’s operational behaviors. It achieves this by identifying intrinsic neutron-induced signatures of non-nuclear components to determine their authenticity and estimate the duration they were exposed within a nuclear weapons system using technologies that are already in use for other national security applications. Intrinsic radiation effects studies are already a part of the stockpile aging and surveillance evaluations. However, none of these technologies and approaches have been previously considered for verification applications of non-nuclear component disposition. In this report, we introduce modeling studies that have been used to identify the most promising candidate parts and materials with signatures that are measurable and actionable. These models have been validated with laboratory measurements of signatures induced by the exposure of candidate materials to neutrons over a range of times. Predictive modeling then demonstrates the methodology for estimating exposure times and/or limits. Laboratory measurements of authentic non-nuclear parts from a dismantled warhead demonstrate the feasibility of employing these signature measurements. And finally, a concept of operations (CONOPS) for the potential use of this methodology is presented.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The distribution of rotational velocities for low-mass stars in the Pleiades

The available spectral type and color data for late-type Pleiades members have been reanalyzed, and new reddening estimates are obtained. New photometry for a small number of stars and a compilation of H-alpha equivalent widths for Pleiades dwarfs are presented. These data are used to examine the location of the rapid rotators in color-magnitude diagrams and the correlation between chromospheric activity and rotation. It is shown that the wide range of angular momenta exhibited by Pleiades K and M dwarfs is not necessarily produced by a combination of main-sequence spin-downs and a large age spread; it can also result from a plausible spread in initial angular momenta, coupled with initial main-sequence spin-down rates that are only weakly dependent on rotation. The new reddening estimates confirm Breger's (1985) finding of large extinctions confined to a small region in the southern portion of the Merope nebula.

Stauffer, John R.↗

Asteroseismic modelling of solar-type stars: a deeper look at the treatment of initial helium abundance

ABSTRACT Detailed understanding of stellar physics is essential towards a robust determination of stellar properties (e.g. radius, mass, and age). Among the vital input physics used in the modelling of solar-type stars which remain poorly constrained, is the initial helium abundance. To this end, when constructing stellar model grids, the initial helium abundance is estimated either (i) by using the semi-empirical helium-to-heavy element enrichment ratio, (ΔY/ΔZ), anchored to the standard big bang nucleosynthesis value, or (ii) by setting the initial helium abundance as a free variable. Adopting 35 low-mass, solar-type stars with multiyear Kepler photometry from the asteroseismic ‘LEGACY’ sample, we explore the systematic uncertainties on the inferred stellar parameters (i.e. radius, mass, and age) arising from the treatment of the initial helium abundance in stellar model grids. The stellar masses and radii derived from grids with free initial helium abundance are lower compared to those from grids based on a fixed ΔY/ΔZ ratio. We find the systematic uncertainties on mean density, radius, mass, and age arising from grids which employ a fixed value of ΔY/ΔZ and those with free initial helium abundance to be ∼ 0.9 per cent, ∼ 2 per cent, ∼ 5 per cent, and ∼ 29 per cent, respectively. We report that the systematic uncertainties on the inferred masses and radii arising from the treatment of initial helium abundance in stellar grids lie within the expected accuracy limits of ESA’s PLATO, although this is not the case for the age.

Nsamba, Benard↗

Differences Among Incidence Rates of Invasive Listeriosis in the U.S. FoodNet Population by Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Pregnancy Status, 2008-2016

Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen that disproportionally affects pregnant females, older adults, and immunocompromised individuals. Using U.S. Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) surveillance data, we examined listeriosis incidence rates and rate ratios (RRs) by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and pregnancy status across three periods from 2008 to 2016, as recent incidence trends in U.S. subgroups had not been evaluated. The invasive listeriosis annual incidence rate per 100,000 for 2008–2016 was 0.28 cases among the general population (excluding pregnant females), and 3.73 cases among pregnant females. For adults ≥ 70 years, the annual incidence rate per 100,000 was 1.33 cases. No significant change in estimated listeriosis incidence was found over the 2008–2016 period, except for a small, but significantly lower pregnancy-associated rate in 2011–2013 when compared with 2008– 2010. Among the nonpregnancy-associated cases, RRs increased with age from 0.43 (95% confidence interval: 0.25– 0.73) for 0- to 14-year olds to 44.9 (33.5–60.0) for ≥ 85-year olds, compared with 15- to 44-year olds. Males had an incidence of 1.28 (1.12–1.45) times that of females. Compared with non-Hispanic whites, the incidence was 1.57 (1.18–1.20) times higher among non-Hispanic Asians, 1.49 (1.22–1.83) among non-Hispanic blacks, and 1.73 (1.15– 2.62) among Hispanics. Among females of childbearing age, non-Hispanic Asian females had 2.72 (1.51–4.89) and Hispanic females 3.13 (2.12–4.89) times higher incidence than non-Hispanic whites. We observed a higher percentage of deaths among older patient groups compared with 15- to 44-year olds. This study is the first characterizing higher RRs for listeriosis in the United States among non-Hispanic blacks and Asians compared with non-Hispanic whites. This information for public health risk managers may spur further research to understand if differences in listeriosis rates relate to differences in consumption patterns of foods with higher contamination levels, food handling practices, comorbidities, immunodeficiencies, health care access, or other factors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

2025 Status Report - Fiberboard Properties and Degradation Rates for Storage of 9975 Shipping Package in KAC

Fiberboard assemblies in the 9975 package were identified as susceptible to aging and degradation under long-term storage conditions. Thermal, mechanical, and physical properties have been measured on fiberboard samples aging for up to 20 years at accelerated conditions. The aging environments include elevated temperature up to 250 ºF (the maximum allowed service temperature for fiberboard in 9975 packages) and elevated humidity. Accelerated aging results have been analyzed and used to build aging models. Correlations relating several properties (thermal conductivity, energy absorption, weight, dimensions, and density) to their rate of change in potential storage environments have been developed. Combined with an estimate of the actual conditions the fiberboard experiences in K-Area Complex (KAC), these models allow development of service life predictions. KAC completed calculations that supported extending the service life of 9975 packages with 3013 containers in storage from 20 years to 40 years. These calculations addressed the potential for degraded fiberboard properties following 40 years in storage using degradation models. The 40 year storage evaluations assumed the degradation rates from initial values for density, dimensional, and thermal properties were 0.5% per year (i.e., after 40 years, the density, dimensional, and thermal properties of fiberboard were 80% of its initial values). The updated degradation models developed in this report were compared to the assumptions in those calculations, and the current results for fiberboard dimensions, density, axial and radial thermal conductivities, and energy absorption remain consistent with those calculations. Additional data will continue to be collected to permit future refinements to the models and assumptions. Some of the predicted degradation rates presented in this report are purposely high to accelerate aging. These rates relate to environments that do not exist within KAC or are postulated to only occur as upset conditions that are unlikely to persist for an extended period. For a typical package stored in KAC with approximately 10-12 watts internal heat load or less, and ambient temperatures below 90 ºF, the fiberboard assemblies experience storage conditions less severe than any of the aging environments (i.e., under 125 °F) used in this study. Fiberboard in conforming packages with lower internal heat loads should experience little or no degradation and is expected to provide a service life beyond the currently approved 40 year storage period. Packages with higher internal heat loads may not continue to perform their required safety functions beyond 40 years. Ultimately, service life will be determined by the cumulative effect of degradation from all the conditions these packages might encounter. The results and model predictions presented in this report are applicable to 9975 packages with cane or softwood fiberboard overpack assemblies. These degradation models do not address the effects of nonconforming conditions such as the presence of excess moisture and mold or beetle infestations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Assessing the Transferability of Statistical Predictive Models for Leaf Area Index Between Two Airborne Discrete Return LiDAR Sensor Designs Within Multiple Intensely Managed Loblolly Pine Forest Locations in the South-Eastern USA

Leaf area is an important forest structural variable which serves as the primary means of mass and energy exchange within vegetated ecosystems. The objective of the current study was to determine if leaf area index (LAI) could be estimated accurately and consistently in five intensively managed pine plantation forests using two multiple-return airborne LiDAR datasets. Field measurements of LAI were made using the LiCOR LAI2000 and LAI2200 instruments within 116 plots were established of varying size and within a variety of stand conditions (i.e. stand age, nutrient regime and stem density) in North Carolina and Virginia in 2008 and 2013. A number of common LiDAR return height and intensity distribution metrics were calculated (e.g. average return height), in addition to ten indices, with two additional variants, utilized in the surrounding literature which have been used to estimate LAI and fractional cover, were calculated from return heights and intensity, for each plot extent. Each of the indices was assessed for correlation with each other, and was used as independent variables in linear regression analysis with field LAI as the dependent variable. All LiDAR derived metrics were also entered into a forward stepwise linear regression. The results from each of the indices varied from an R2 of 0.33 (S.E. 0.87) to 0.89 (S.E. 0.36). Those indices calculated using ratios of all returns produced the strongest correlations, such as the Above and Below Ratio Index (ABRI) and Laser Penetration Index 1 (LPI1). The regression model produced from a combination of three metrics did not improve correlations greatly (R2 0.90; S.E. 0.35). The results indicate that LAI can be predicted over a range of intensively managed pine plantation forest environments accurately when using different LiDAR sensor designs. Those indices which incorporated counts of specific return numbers (e.g. first returns) or return intensity correlated poorly with field measurements. There were disparities between the number of different types of returns and intensity values when comparing the results from two LiDAR sensors, indicating that predictive models developed using such metrics are not transferable between datasets with different acquisition parameters. Each of the indices were significantly correlated with one another, with one exception (LAI proxy), in particular those indices calculated from all returns, which indicates similarities in information content for those indices. It can then be argued that LiDAR indices have reached a similar stage in development to those calculated from optical-spectral sensors, but which offer a number of advantages, such as the reduction or removal of saturation issues in areas of high biomass.

Sumnall, Matthew↗

Identification of Hip BMD Loss and Fracture Risk Markers Through Population-Based Serum Proteomics: HIP BMD LOSS & FRACTURE RISK MARKERS BY POPULATION-BASED SERUM PROTEOMICS

Accelerated bone loss significantly increases the risk of osteoporosis and fracture. The mechanisms underlying bone loss remain incompletely understood, and there are few available biomarkers. We utilized a novel proteomics approach to identify serum peptides and proteins associated with bone loss in 1967 older men who were randomly chosen from the Osteoporotic Fracture in Men Study (MrOS study) (age ≥ 65 yrs). Men had 2-3 measures of femoral neck BMD over an average follow-up of 4.6 years. Change in BMD was estimated and then categorized into three groups: maintained BMD (n=453), expected loss (n=1185) and accelerated loss (n=237). A liquid chromatography–ion mobility separation-mass spectrometry (LC-IMS-MS) proteomics platform was used to identify and quantify peptides from serum proteins. The whole cohort was randomly divided into discovery (N= 960) and validation (N= 915) sub-cohorts. Linear regression models and a random forest approach were used to discover differentially abundant individual peptides and a proteomic signature that distinguished individuals with accelerated bone loss from those who maintained BMD. Network analyses were performed using the MetaCore knowledgebase. We identified 12 peptides that were associated with BMD loss in both discovery (P< 0.1 FDR) and replication sub-cohorts (P<0.05). Those 12 peptides mapped to the following proteins: ALS, LYVE1, RNAS1, C2, ICOSL, C163A, C7, HEMO, CD14, CERU, CRAC1 and CD59. Meta-analysis of peptidesassociated with bone loss identified 6 additional proteins including GRP78, IGF-2, SHBG, ENPP2, IBP2 and IBP6. We also identified a proteomic signature that was predictive of BMD loss with a discriminative value similar to serum bone marker carboxy-terminal collagen crosslink peptide (CTX). Interestingly, combining the proteomic signature with CTX significantly improved the ability to discriminate men with accelerated loss. In summary, we have identified potential new biomarkers for bone loss that provide a more in depth understanding of its pathophysiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗