Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Estimation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Time-Energy Uncertainty Relation for Noisy Quantum Metrology

Detection of very weak forces and precise measurement of time are two of the many applications of quantum metrology to science and technology. To sense an unknown physical parameter, one prepares an initial state of a probe system, allows the probe to evolve as governed by a Hamiltonian 𝐻 for some time 𝑡, and then measures the probe. If 𝐻 is known, we can estimate 𝑡 by this method; if 𝑡 is known, we can estimate classical parameters on which 𝐻 depends. The accuracy of a quantum sensor can be limited by either intrinsic quantum noise or by noise arising from the interactions of the probe with its environment. In this work, we introduce and study a fundamental trade-off, which relates the amount by which noise reduces the accuracy of a quantum clock to the amount of information about the energy of the clock that leaks to the environment. Specifically, we consider an idealized scenario in which a party Alice prepares an initial pure state of the clock, allows the clock to evolve for a time that is not precisely known, and then transmits the clock through a noisy channel to a party Bob. Meanwhile, the environment (Eve) receives any information about the clock that is lost during transmission. We prove that Bob’s loss of quantum Fisher information about the elapsed time is equal to Eve’s gain of quantum Fisher information about a complementary energy parameter. We also prove a similar, but more general, trade-off that applies when Bob and Eve wish to estimate the values of parameters associated with two noncommuting observables. We derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for the accuracy of the clock to be unaffected by the noise, which form a subset of the Knill-Laflamme error-correction conditions. A state and its local time-evolution direction, if they satisfy these conditions, are said to form a metrological code. We provide a scheme to construct metrological codes in the stabilizer formalism. We show that there are metrological codes that cannot be written as a quantum error-correcting code with similar distance in which the Hamiltonian acts as a logical operator, potentially offering new schemes for constructing states that do not lose any sensitivity upon application of a noisy channel. We discuss applications of the trade-off relation to sensing using a quantum many-body probe subject to erasure or amplitude-damping noise.

metrology↗

Bayesian optimized collection strategies for fatigue strength testing

Abstract A statistical framework is presented enabling optimal sampling and analysis of constant life fatigue data. Protocols using Bayesian maximum entropy sampling are built based on conventional staircase and stress step methods, reducing the requirement of prior knowledge for data collection. The Bayesian Staircase method shows improved parameter estimation efficiency, and the Bayesian Stress Step method shows equal accuracy to the standard method at larger step size allowing experimentalists to lessen concerns of loading history. Statistical methods for determining model suitability are shown, highlighting the influence of protocol. Experimental validation is performed, showing the applicability of the methods in laboratory testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Antioxidant Activity, Microbiological Quality, and Acceptability of Spontaneously Fermented Shrimp Sausage (Litopenaeus vannamei)

Fermented shrimp sausages are prepared spontaneously with Litopenaeus vannamei as raw material. Shrimp is one of the marine sources with rich chitosan as bioactive compounds, antioxidants, vitamin E, and probiotic lactic acid bacteria (LAB) produced by fermentation processes. This study aimed to analyze the variations in antioxidant activity, vitamin E content, total LAB, total pathogenic bacteria, pH, and acceptability of shrimp sausage produced at different fermentation times. A completely randomized experimental design study was performed using four levels of exposure time, including control (0 days), 1, 2, and 3 days. The treatment was conducted spontaneously with 1.2% salt concentration, a drying temperature of 50°C for 3 h, and fermentation at 35°C. The evaluated parameters included the antioxidant activity measured with the radical 2,2-azino-bis (3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulphonic acid) method, vitamin E levels by high-performance liquid chromatography, total LAB with total plate count, and Escherichia coli bacteria by the most probable number method. Salmonella sp. and Staphylococcus aureus were estimated by the identification method. A pH meter was used to assess acidity, and hedonic organoleptic testing was performed for taste, aroma, color, and texture. The results show significant differences in antioxidant activity, vitamin E, and shrimp sausage acceptability at varied fermentation times p ≤ 0.05 . However, the best formulation was obtained with the first-day fermented shrimp sausage, as shown by its bioactive content and the level of acceptability.

Afifah, Diana N.↗

G-PST Inertia Monitoring Tool [SWR-23-54]

This tool provides interfaces for ingesting real-time unit commitment data (e.g., from a grid operator's control room energy management system) and calculating system inertia estimates based on the H-constant method, before relaying those estimates to customizable visualization or logging outputs.

Stephen, Gordon↗

Study of Overfitting by Machine Learning Methods Using Generalization Equations

The training error of Machine Learning (ML) methods has been extensively used for performance assessment, and its low values have been used as a main justification for complex methods such as estimator fusion and ensembles, and hyper parameter tuning. We present two practical cases where independent tests indicate that the low training error is more of a reflection of over-fitting rather than the generalization ability. We derive a generic form of the generalization equations that separates the training error terms of ML methods from their epistemic terms that correspond to approximation and learnability properties. It provides a framework to separately account for both terms to ensure an overall high generalization performance. For regression estimation tasks, we derive conditions for performance enhancements achieved by hyper parameter tuning, and fusion and ensemble methods over their constituent methods. We present experimental measurements and ML estimates that illustrate the analytical results for the throughput profile estimation of a data transport infrastructure.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Estimating Code Biases for Criticality Safety Applications with Few Relevant Benchmarks

Criticality safety analyses rely on the availability of relevant benchmark experiments to determine justifiable margins of subcriticality. When a target application lacks neutronically similar benchmark experiments, validation studies must provide justification to the regulator that the impact of modeling and simulation limitations is well understood for the application and often must provide additional subcritical margin to ensure safe operating conditions. This study estimated the computational bias in the critical eigenvalue for several criticality safety applications supported by only a few relevant benchmark experiments. The accuracy of the following three methods for predicting computational biases was evaluated: the Upper Subcritical Limit STATisticS (USLSTATS) trending analysis method; the Whisper nonparametric method; and TSURFER, which is based on the generalized linear least-squares technique. Here, these methods were also applied to estimate computational biases and recommended upper subcriticality limits for several critical experiments with known biases and for several cases from a blind benchmark study. The methods are evaluated based on both the accuracy of their predicted computation bias and upper subcriticality limit estimates, as well as on the consistency of the methods’ estimates, as the model parameters, covariance data libraries, and set of available benchmark data were varied. Data assimilation methods typically have not been used for criticality safety licensing activities, and this study explores a methodology to address concerns regarding the reliability of such methods in criticality safety bias prediction applications.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Pile noise experiment in MINERVE reactor to estimate kinetic parameters using various data processing methods

MINERVE is a two-zone pool type zero power reactor operated by CEA (Cadarache, France). Kinetic parameters of the core (prompt neutron decay constant, delayed neutron fraction, generation time) have been recently measured using various pile noise experimental techniques, namely Feynman-α, Rossi-α and Cohn-α. Results are discussed and compared to each other's. The measurement campaign has been conducted in the framework of a tri-partite collaboration between CEA, SCK.CEN and PSI. Results presented in this paper were obtained thanks to a time-stamping acquisition system developed by CEA. PSI performed simultaneous measurements which are presented in a companion paper. Signals come from two high efficiency fission chambers located in the graphite reflector next to the core driver zone. Experiments were conducted at critical state with a reactor power of 0.2 W. The core integral fission rate is obtained from a calibrated miniature fission chamber located at the center of the core. Other results obtained in two sub-critical configurations will be presented elsewhere. Best estimate delayed neutron fraction comes from the Cohn-α method: 747 ± 15 pcm (1σ). In this case, the prompt decay constant is 79 ± 0.5 s{sup -1} and the generation time is 94.5 ± 0.7 μs. Other methods give consistent results within the confidence intervals. Experimental results are compared to calculated values obtained from a full 3D core modeling with the CEA-developed Monte Carlo code TRIPOLI4.9 associated with its continuous energy JEFF3.1.1-based library. A very good agreement is observed for the calculated delayed neutron fraction (748.7 ± 0.4 pcm at 1σ), that is a difference of -0.3% with the experiment. On the contrary, a 10% discrepancy is observed for the calculated generation time (104.4 ± 0.1 μs at 1σ). (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Spherical Parameter Estimation and MPDV Applications

A new algebraic least square approach is presented for estimating effective zero center for verification of MPDV(Multichannel Photon Doppler Velocimetry) probe designs. Unlike previous algebraic least square methods for spherical parameter estimation, the new method can be shown to be concise in mathematic formulations, easy of computations, invariant under rigid -body transformations, no need for numerical approximations, and precise in dealing with precise data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measuring the Properties of Dark Energy with Photometrically Classified Pan-STARRS Supernovae. I. Systematic Uncertainty from Core-collapse Supernova Contamination

The Pan-STARRS (PS1) Medium Deep Survey discovered over 5000 likely supernovae (SNe) but obtained spectral classifications for just 10% of its SN candidates. We measured spectroscopic host galaxy redshifts for 3147 of these likely SNe and estimate that ∼1000 are Type Ia SNe (SNe Ia) with light-curve quality sufficient for a cosmological analysis. We use these data with simulations to determine the impact of core-collapse SN (CC SN) contamination on measurements of the dark energy equation of state parameter, w. Using the method of Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS), distances to SNe Ia and the contaminating CC SN distribution are simultaneously determined. We test light-curve-based SN classification priors for BEAMS as well as a new classification method that relies upon host galaxy spectra and the association of SN type with host type. By testing several SN classification methods and CC SN parameterizations on large SN simulations, we estimate that CC SN contamination gives a systematic error on w (σ{sub w}{sup CC}) of 0.014, 29% of the statistical uncertainty. Our best method gives σ{sub w}{sup CC}=0.004, just 8% of the statistical uncertainty, but could be affected by incomplete knowledge of the CC SN distribution. This method determines the SALT2 color and shape coefficients, α and β, with ∼3% bias. However, we find that some variants require α and β to be fixed to known values for BEAMS to yield accurate measurements of w. Finally, the inferred abundance of bright CC SNe in our sample is greater than expected based on measured CC SN rates and luminosity functions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Container Surface Evaluation by Function Estimation

Container images are analyzed for specific surface features, such as, pits, cracks, and corrosion. The detection of these features is confounded with complicating features. These complication features include: shape/curvature, welds, edges, scratches, foreign objects among others. A method is provided to discriminate between the various features. The method consists of estimating the image background, determining a residual image and post processing to determine the features present. The methodology is not finalized but demonstrates the feasibility of a method to determine the kind and size of the features present.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Automated Signal Timing Plan Reconstruction Using High-Resolution Event-Based Controller Data for Digital Twins

Transportation digital twins are essential tools for evaluating emerging technologies such as connected and automated vehicles, adaptive traffic signal control, and mobility optimization strategies. Realistic digital twins require accurate emulation of real-world signal controllers and detailed signal timing plans. However, signal timing plans are often unavailable or difficult to access, forcing researchers and modelers to rely on assumed fixed timings or halt their analysis. To overcome this challenge, we present a method that directly estimates signal timing plan parameters using high-resolution, event-based data from traffic signal controllers. The proposed method extracts key parameters, including cycle length, offset, phase sequence, coordinated phases, phase-specific minimum and maximum green durations, vehicle extensions, and splits under coordination. A rule-based deterministic signal timing reconstruction algorithm based on traffic signal operation rules, such as those outlined in the Signal Timing Manual, is developed and validated. We evaluate this method, which uses high-resolution controller event logs and verified signal timing plans, on 94 signalized intersections in Nashville, Tennessee, demonstrating their ability to generate accurate, simulation-ready signal timing plans for tools such as SUMO and Vissim.

Saroj, Abhilasha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191178063)↗

Methods to accelerate high-throughput screening of atomic qubit candidates in van der Waals materials

The discovery of atom-like spin emitters associated with defects in two-dimensional (2D) wide-bandgap (WBG) semiconductors presents new opportunities for highly tunable and versatile qubits. So far, the study of such spin emitters has focused on defects in hexagonal boron nitride (hBN). However, hBN necessarily contains a high density of nuclear spins, which are expected to create a strong incoherent spin-bath that leads to poor coherence properties of spins hosted in the material. Therefore, identification of new qubit candidates in other 2DWBG materials is necessary. Given the time demands of ab initio methods, new approaches for rapid screening and calculations of identifying properties of suitable atom-like qubits are required. In this work, we present two new methods for rapid estimation of the zero-phonon line (ZPL), a key property of atomic qubits in WBG materials. First, the ZPL is calculated by exploiting Janak’s theorem. For finite changes in occupation, we provide the leading-order estimate of the correction to the ZPL obtained using Janak’s theorem, which is more rapid than the standard method (ΔSCF). Next, we demonstrate an approach to converging excited states that is faster for systems with small strain than the standard approach used in the ΔSCF method. We illustrate these methods using the case of the singly negatively charged calcium vacancy in SiS2, which we are the first to propose as a qubit candidate. This work has the potential to assist in accelerating the high-throughput search for quantum defects in materials, with applications in quantum sensing and quantum computing.

Kuate Defo, Rodrick (ORCID:0000000242788196)↗

Minimum Detectable Quantity Calculation for Radiation Portal Monitors

The minimum detectable quantity of a radiation portal monitor is the smallest amount of radioactive material that can be detected passing through the monitor (with a specified detection probability). The minimum detectable quantity is a function of many factors, including isotope, velocity, distance between pillars, height of portal and vehicle, source distribution and position, background radiation, background suppression, detector volume and positions, detector efficiency, decision metrics and algorithms, the presence of NORM (naturally occurring radioactive material), and alarm thresholds. Experimentally testing a radiation portal monitor to failure for all combinations of these factors is extremely time-consuming and often cost prohibitive. This document outlines a straightforward method for quickly estimating the minimum detectable quantity for moving sources over a large variety of conditions with a minimal number of static measurements. The document also describes a proof of concept software application that the International Atomic Energy Agency has designed based on the described method that can be used by Member States to estimate a monitor’s minimum detectable quantity.

Blessinger, Christopher S.↗

EPR-based uncertainty validation of the calculated external doses for population exposed in the urals region

Tooth enamel Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) spectroscopy was used as a method for external dosimetry in the territories contaminated in the 1950s by PA ‘Mayak’ (Urals region) to validate the mean dose estimates predicted by the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The purpose of this study is to validate the uncertainties of TRDS doses. Ninety percent confidence intervals (90% confidence interval, CI) of dose estimated with both methods were compared for 220 people. All data were grouped according to the width of 90%CI, viz.: (1) 90%CI of EPR-based dose ≤ 90%CI of TRDS prediction (38 cases); (2) 90%CI of EPR-based dose > 90%CI of TRDS prediction (182 cases). About 91% of 90%CIs overlap. In group 1, 100% cases overlap. In group 2, 80% of the cases were non-contradictive (the calculated 90%CI is completely within the measured one). Interval comparison of doses predicted retrospectively and estimated based on individual measurements are non-contradictory and demonstrate a good agreement.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Speckle contrast of interfering fluorescence X-rays

With the development of X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), producing pulses of femtosecond durations comparable with the coherence times of X-ray fluorescence, it has become possible to observe intensity–intensity correlations due to the interference of emission from independent atoms. This has been used to compare durations of X-ray pulses and to measure the size of a focused X-ray beam, for example. Here it is shown that it is also possible to observe the interference of fluorescence photons through the measurement of the speckle contrast of angle-resolved fluorescence patterns. Speckle contrast is often used as a measure of the degree of coherence of the incident beam or the fluctuations of the illuminated sample as determined from X-ray diffraction patterns formed by elastic scattering, rather than from fluorescence patterns as addressed here. Commonly used approaches to estimate speckle contrast were found to suffer when applied to XFEL-generated fluorescence patterns due to low photon counts and a significant variation of the excitation pulse energy from shot to shot. A new method to reliably estimate speckle contrast under such conditions, using a weighting scheme, is introduced. The method is demonstrated by comparing the speckle contrast of fluorescence observed with pulses of 3 fs to 15 fs duration.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Benchmarking Adaptive Variational Quantum Eigensolvers

By design, the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) strives to recover the lowest-energy eigenvalue of a given Hamiltonian by preparing quantum states guided by the variational principle. In practice, the prepared quantum state is indirectly assessed by the value of the associated energy. Novel adaptive derivative-assembled pseudo-trotter (ADAPT) ansatz approaches and recent formal advances now establish a clear connection between the theory of quantum chemistry and the quantum state ansatz used to solve the electronic structure problem. Here we benchmark the accuracy of VQE and ADAPT-VQE to calculate the electronic ground states and potential energy curves for a few selected diatomic molecules, namely H 2 , NaH, and KH. Using numerical simulation, we find both methods provide good estimates of the energy and ground state, but only ADAPT-VQE proves to be robust to particularities in optimization methods. Another relevant finding is that gradient-based optimization is overall more economical and delivers superior performance than analogous simulations carried out with gradient-free optimizers. The results also identify small errors in the prepared state fidelity which show an increasing trend with molecular size.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Heating of an Erupting Prominence Associated with a Solar Coronal Mass Ejection on 2012 January 27

We investigate the heating of an erupting prominence and loops associated with a coronal mass ejection and X-class flare. The prominence is seen as absorption in EUV at the beginning of its eruption. Later, the prominence changes to emission, which indicates heating of the erupting plasma. We find the densities of the erupting prominence using the absorption properties of hydrogen and helium in different passbands. We estimate the temperatures and densities of the erupting prominence and loops seen as emission features using the differential emission measure method, which uses both EUV and X-ray observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the X-ray Telescope on board Hinode . We consider synthetic spectra using both photospheric and coronal abundances in these calculations. We verify the methods for the estimation of temperatures and densities for the erupting plasmas. Then, we estimate the thermal, kinetic, radiative loss, thermal conduction, and heating energies of the erupting prominence and loops. We find that the heating of the erupting prominence and loop occurs strongly at early times in the eruption. This event shows a writhing motion of the erupting prominence, which may indicate a hot flux rope heated by thermal energy release during magnetic reconnection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Isotope Ratio Method Analysis of the WWR-SM Reactor

In this paper, we use the Isotope Ratio Method (IRM) to estimate the total energy production of the Uzbekistan Institute of Nuclear Physics WWR-SM research reactor. The isotope ratio method is a technique for verifying the operational history of a nuclear reactor by measuring trace element isotope ratios in non-fuel reactor components. The isotope ratios in these components can then be directly related to cumulative energy production with standard reactor modeling methods. This method has been successfully demonstrated on several shutdown reactors in the past. The WWR-SM is a 10MW pool reactor that has been operating since 1959. In 2013, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) team successfully removed a surface sample from the aluminum core shroud during a refueling outage. The sample was subjected to Secondary Ionization Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) analysis at PNNL in 2014. Our results show good agreement with the actual operating history of the reactor.

Nuclear archeology, isotope ratio method, nonproli↗