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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
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Linear Mixed-Effects Models for Human-in-the-Loop Tracking Experiment Data

Linear mixed-effects models provide several benefits over more traditional statistical inference tests that are particularly useful for most human-in-the-loop tracking experiment data. However, surprisingly, mixed models are virtually not used for the analysis of tracking experiment data. This paper uses of linear mixed-effects models to analyze combined tracking data from two previous human-in-the-loop roll tracking experiments that compared control behavior metrics collected in both a research aircraft and a motion-base simulator. In the experiments, pilots' behavior under 10 different motion configurations with varying motion filter gains and break frequencies was evaluated and compared to that in the real aircraft. The linear mixed-effects model analysis on the combined dataset confirmed the main statistical outcomes of the individual experiments. The main benefits of mixed models for this type of data were demonstrated by successfully combining data from two experiments that used different experimental conditions and of which one had an additional apparatus and the other a missing participant. Finally, the mixed-model analysis was able to explicitly test for scientifically relevant statistical differences in the dependent measures between the aircraft and simulator, as well as both experiments.

manual control↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Pantheon+ Analysis: Forward Modeling the Dust and Intrinsic Color Distributions of Type Ia Supernovae, and Quantifying Their Impact on Cosmological Inferences

Abstract Recent studies have shown that the observed color distributions of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be well described by a combination of a dust distribution and an intrinsic color distribution. Using the Pantheon+ sample of 1701 SN Ia, we apply a new forward-modeling fitting method (Dust2Dust) to measure the parent dust and color distributions, including their dependence on host-galaxy mass. At each fit step, the SN Ia selection efficiency is determined from a large simulated sample that is reweighted to reflect the proposed distributions. We use five separate metrics to describe the goodness of fit: distribution of fitted light-curve color c , cosmological residual trends with c , cosmological residual scatter with c , fitted color–luminosity relationship β SALT2 , and intrinsic scatter σ int . We present the results and the uncertainty in 12-dimensional space. Furthermore, we measure that the uncertainty on this modeling propagates to an upper threshold uncertainty in the equation of state of dark energy w of 0.014(1) for the Pantheon+ cosmology analysis and contributes negligible uncertainty to the Hubble constant H 0 . The Dust2Dust code is made publicly available at https://github.com/djbrout/dustdriver .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting the Architecture of the KOI-89 System

While high stellar obliquities observed in exoplanetary systems may be attributed to processes that tilt the planetary orbits, it is also possible that they reflect misalignments between protoplanetary disks and stellar spins. This latter hypothesis predicts the presence of coplanar multiplanetary systems misaligned with their central stars. Here we reevaluate the evidence of such an architecture that has been claimed for the KOI-89 system. An early-type star, KOI-89 has one validated transiting planet, KOI-89.01/Kepler-462b (period 84.7 days, radius 3.0 R {sub ⊕}), and one transiting planet candidate, KOI-89.02 (period 207.6 days, radius 4.0 R {sub ⊕}), where the latter exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). A previous modeling of the stellar gravity-darkening effect in the transit light curves inferred a high stellar obliquity of ≈70°. We perform photodynamical modeling of the Kepler transit light curves and use the resulting constraints on the orbital configuration and transit times to update the gravity-darkened transit model. As a result, we find no firm evidence for the gravity-darkening effect in the transit shapes and conclude that stellar obliquity is not constrained by the data. Given the evidence for low orbital eccentricities from the dynamical analysis, the system architecture can thus be consistent with many other multitransiting systems with flat, near-circular orbits aligned with the stellar spin. We find that the TTVs imparted on its neighbor imply that KOI-89.01 has a mass ≳20 M {sub ⊕}. This would render it one of the densest known sub-Neptunes, mostly composed of a solid core. Lower masses are possible if the TTVs are instead due to an unseen third planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized framework for likelihood-based field-level inference of growth rate from velocity and density fields

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures ( f ) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of peculiar velocities of galaxies have attracted interest as a means of estimating fσ 8 . In particular, field-level methods can be used to fit the field nuisance parameter along with cosmological parameters simultaneously. This article aims to provide the community with a unified framework for the theoretical modeling of the likelihood-based field-level inference by performing fast field covariance calculations for velocity and density fields. Our purpose is to lay the foundations for a nonlinear extension of the likelihood-based method at the field level. We have developed a generalized framework, implemented in the dedicated software flip to perform a likelihood-based inference of fσ 8 . We derived a new field covariance model, which includes wide-angle corrections. We also included the models previously described in the literature inside our framework. We compared their performance against ours, and we validated our model by comparing it with the two-point statistics of a recent N-body simulation. The tests we performed have allowed us to validate our software and determine the appropriate wavenumber range to integrate our covariance model and its validity in terms of separation. Our framework allows for a wider wavenumber coverage to be used in our calculations than in previous works, which is particularly interesting for nonlinear model extensions. Finally, our generalized framework allows us to efficiently perform a survey geometry-dependent Fisher forecast of the fσ 8 parameter. We show that the Fisher forecast method we developed gives an error bar that is 30% closer to a full likelihood-based estimation than a standard volume Fisher forecast.

Ravoux, Corentin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid Star Models in the Light of New Multimessenger Data

Abstract Recent astrophysical mass inferences of compact stars HESS J1731-347 and PSR J0952-0607, with extremely small and large masses respectively, as well as the measurement of the neutron skin of Ca in the CREX experiment challenge and constrain the models of dense matter. We examine the concept of hybrid stars—objects containing quark cores surrounded by nucleonic envelopes—as models that account for these new data along with other inferences. We employ a family of 81 nucleonic equations of state (EOSs) with variable skewness and slope of symmetry energy at saturation density and a constant speed-of-sound EOS for quark matter. For each nucleonic EOS, a family of hybrid EOSs is generated by varying the transition density, the energy jump, and the speed of sound. These models are tested against the data from GW170817 and J1731-347, which favor low-density soft EOS and J0592-0607 and J0740+6620, which require high-density stiff EOS. The addition of J0592-0607's mass measurement to the constraints has no significant impact on the parameter space of the admissible EOS, but allows us to explore the potential effect of pulsars more massive than J0740+6620, if such exists. We then examine the occurrence of twin configurations and quantify the ranges of masses and radii that they can possess. It is shown that including J1731-347 data favors EOSs that predict low-mass twins with M ≲ 1.3 M ⊙ that can be realized if the deconfinement transition density is low. If combined with large speed of sound in quark matter such models allow for maximum masses of hybrid stars in 2.0–2.6 M ⊙ .

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification and prediction of solidification textures under additive manufacturing conditions

Crystallographic textures are a major determinant of the macroscale anisotropic properties of polycrystalline metallic alloys produced in a wide range of additive manufacturing (AM) processes. Here, we introduce a statistical method that can accurately quantify the degree of orientational order of textures despite the large random fluctuations in the orientation of individual grains inherent in AM processes. The method, demonstrated for laser and resolidification of AlSi thin films, extends Z-scoring to a dynamical regime to assess the statistical significance of observed textures compared to randomly generated ones at different stages of solidification. We further show that, combined with phase-field modeling, this method can be used to infer fundamental anisotropic properties of the solid-liquid interface that are essential for texture prediction, and are compared here to the results of atomistic simulations. In addition, phase-field modeling reveals that, even at rapid AM solidification rates, the observed 〈110〉-dominated textures in the AlSi thin films are controlled predominantly by the anisotropy of the interface free-energy and sheds light on the physical mechanism of grain competition. These results significantly enhance both the existing tools for the quantification and prediction of AM crystallographic textures and our basic understanding of their formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting and Accelerating Transformers for Jet Tagging

Attention-based transformers are ubiquitous in machine learning applications from natural language processing to computer vision. In high energy physics, one central application is to classify collimated particle showers in colliders based on the particle of origin, known as jet tagging. In this work, we study the interpretatbility and prospects for acceleration of Particle Transformer (ParT), a state-of-the-art model, leverages particle-level attention to improve jet-tagging performance. We analyzing ParT's attention maps and particle-pair correlations in the eta-phi plane, revealing intriguing features, such as a binary attention pattern that identifies critical substructure in jets. These insights enhance our understanding of the model's internal workings and learning process and hint at ways to improve its efficiency. Along these lines, we also explore low-rank attention, attention alternatives, and dynamic quantization to accelerate transformers for jet tagging. With quantization, we achieve a 50% reduction in model size and a 10% increase in inference speed without compromising accuracy. These combined efforts enhance both the performance and the interpretability of transformers in high-energy physics, opening avenues for more efficient and physics-driven model designs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1989

The effects of viewing angle on the inference of magnetic shear in preflare active regions

Analytic models for nonpotential force-free fields representative of preflaring active regions have been used to determine the degree of magnetic shear along the magnetic neutral line of these fields as a function of location and orientation of the active region on the solar disk. The results indicate that, with the exception of regions close to the disk center, the position of the inferred neutral line differs significantly from the actual neutral line. It is suggested that the significant variation of the inferred degree of shear with the position and orientation of the region is due to such factors as geometric projection effects, the shift of the inferred neutral line relative to its true position, and the variations in the reference potential field.

Wilkinson, Ladye Kathryn↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding protein-complex assembly through grand canonical maximum entropy modeling

Inside a cell, heterotypic proteins assemble in inhomogeneous, crowded systems where the abundance of these proteins vary with cell types. While some protein complexes form putative structures that can be visualized with imaging, there are far more protein complexes that are yet to be solved because of their dynamic associations with one another. Nevertheless, it is possible to infer these protein complexes through a physical model. However, it is often not clear to physicists what kind of data from biology is necessary for such a modeling endeavor. Here, we aim to model these clusters of coarse-grained protein assemblies from multiple subunits through the constraints of interactions among the subunits and the chemical potential of each subunit. We obtained the constraints on the interactions among subunits from the known protein structures. We inferred the chemical potential that dictates the particle number distribution of each protein subunit from the knowledge of protein abundance from experimental data. Guided by the maximum entropy principle, we formulated an inverse statistical mechanical method to infer the distribution of particle numbers from the data of protein abundance as chemical potentials for a grand canonical multicomponent mixture. Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, we captured a distribution of high-order clusters in a protein complex of succinate dehydrogenase with four known subunits. The complexity of hierarchical clusters varies with the relative protein abundance of each subunit in distinctive cell types such as lung, heart, and brain. When the crowding content increases, we observed that crowding stabilizes emergent clusters that do not exist in dilute conditions. We, therefore, proposed a testable hypothesis that the hierarchical complexity of protein clusters on a molecular scale is a plausible biomarker of predicting the phenotypes of a cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

GCoD: Graph Convolutional Network Acceleration via Dedicated Algorithm and Accelerator Co-Design

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have emerged as the state-of-the-art graph learning model. However, it remains notoriously challenging to inference GCNs over large graph datasets, limiting their application to large real-world graphs and hindering the exploration of deeper and more sophisticated GCN graphs. This is because real-world graphs can be extremely large and sparse. Furthermore, the node degree of GCNs tends to follow the power-law distribution and therefore have highly irregular adjacency matrices, resulting in prohibitive inefficiencies in both data processing and movement and thus substantially limiting the achievable GCN acceleration efficiency. To this end, this paper proposes the first GCN algorithm and accelerator Co-Design framework dubbed GCoD which can largely alleviate the aforementioned GCN irregularity and boost GCNs' inference efficiency. Specifically, on the algorithm level, GCoD integrates a divide and conquer GCN training strategy that polarizes the graphs to be either denser or sparser in local neighborhoods without compromising the model accuracy, resulting in graph adjacency matrices that (mostly) have merely two levels of workload and enjoys largely enhanced regularity and thus ease of acceleration. On the hardware level, we further develop a dedicated two-pronged accelerator with a separated engine to process each of the aforementioned workloads, further boosting the overall utilization and acceleration efficiency. Extensive experiments and ablation studies validate that our GCoD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art designs in terms of accelerator efficiency while maintaining or even improving the task accuracy. Additionally, we visualize GCoD trained graph adjacency matrices to better understand its advantages. All codes and pre-trained models will be released upon acceptance.

You, Haoran↗
NASA NTRS1972

Hydrodynamic prediction of peak pool-boiling heat fluxes from finite bodies.

Previous theoretical models are considered, giving attention to the original formulation proposed by Zuber (1959), an infinite horizontal flat plate, a horizontal cylinder, and a sphere. Some general features of any hydrodynamic prediction are inferred by examining the characteristics of the models. It is found possible to eliminate the need for observed values of the vapor-blanket thickness. The concepts obtained are utilized in the derivation of expressions for the prediction of the peak pool-boiling heat flux in the case of some new configurations.

Lienhard, J. H.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impact of three-dimensional hot-spot flow asymmetry on ion-temperature measurements in inertial confinement fusion experiments

Three-dimensional (3-D) implosion asymmetries lead to signficant variations in ion-temperature measurements in inertial confinement fusion experiments. We present an analytical method to generalize the physical properties of velocity variance in the Brysk ion-temperature model. This analysis provides a consistent explanation for the 3-D effects of inferred ion-temperature variations for various single modes and multimodes modeled by the deceleration-phase hydrocode DEC3D and the neutron transport code IRIS3D . The effect of the hot-spot ow asymmetry on variations in ion-temperature measurement is shown uniquely determined by a complete set of six hot-spot flow parameters. An approximated solution to the minimum inferred ion temperature is derived and shown to be close to the thermal ion temperature for low mode l = 1, which exhibits the largest anisotropic velocity variance in the single-mode spectrum. In conclusion, the isotropic velocity variance for low mode l = 2 is shown to result in the minimum inferred ion temperatures being well above the thermal ion temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Test of Maxwell's Z Model Using Inverse Modeling

In modeling impact craters a small region of energy and momentum deposition, commonly called a "point source", is often assumed. This assumption implies that an impact is the same as an explosion at some depth below the surface. Maxwell's Z Model, an empirical point-source model derived from explosion cratering, has previously been compared with numerical impact craters with vertical incidence angles, leading to two main inferences. First, the flowfield center of the Z Model must be placed below the target surface in order to replicate numerical impact craters. Second, for vertical impacts, the flow-field center cannot be stationary if the value of Z is held constant; rather, the flow-field center migrates downward as the crater grows. The work presented here evaluates the utility of the Z Model for reproducing both vertical and oblique experimental impact data obtained at the NASA Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR). Specifically, ejection angle data obtained through Three-Dimensional Particle Image Velocimetry (3D PIV) are used to constrain the parameters of Maxwell's Z Model, including the value of Z and the depth and position of the flow-field center via inverse modeling.

Anderson, J. L. B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Topological Interpretability for Deep Learning

With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based decision systems is an increasing concern, especially in high-risk systems such as criminal justice or medical diagnosis, where incorrect inferences may have tragic consequences. Despite their successes in providing solutions to problems involving real-world data, deep learning (DL) models cannot quantify the certainty of their predictions. These models are frequently quite confident, even when their solutions are incorrect. This work presents a method to infer prominent features in two DL classification models trained on clinical and non-clinical text by employing techniques from topological and geometric data analysis. We create a graph of a model's feature space and cluster the inputs into the graph's vertices by the similarity of features and prediction statistics. We then extract subgraphs demonstrating high-predictive accuracy for a given label. These subgraphs contain a wealth of information about features that the DL model has recognized as relevant to its decisions. We infer these features for a given label using a distance metric between probability measures, and demonstrate the stability of our method compared to the LIME and SHAP interpretability methods. This work establishes that we may gain insights into the decision mechanism of a DL model. This method allows us to ascertain if the model is making its decisions based on information germane to the problem or identifies extraneous patterns within the data.

Spannaus, Adam↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Vector Radiative Transfer Model for the Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled System

To infer atmospheric and oceanic constituent properties from polarimetric observations, an efficient and accurate retrieval algorithm is desirable. In-line radiative transfer calculations are indispensable if a large state vector, including both atmospheric profiles and surface properties, is used to improve retrieval accuracy. However, in-line radiative transfer calculations are usually not computationally efficient for remote sensing applications. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop an accurate and fast vector radiative transfer model (RTM) to fully utilize satellite polarimetric observations. This paper reports on a fast vector RTM, referred to as TAMU-VRTM, in support of polarimetric remote sensing, which is capable of simulating the Stokes vector values observed at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface by fully considering absorption, scattering, and emission in the atmosphere and ocean. Gaseous absorption is parameterized with respect to gas concentration, temperature, and pressure, by using a regression method applicable to an inhomogeneous atmospheric path. An efficient two-component approach combining the small angle approximation and the adding-doubling method is utilized to solve the vector radiative transfer equation (RTE). The thermal emission component of the RTE solution is obtained by an efficient doubling process. The air-sea interface is treated as a wind-ruffled rough surface in the model to mimic a realistic ocean surface. Several oceanic optical property models are introduced to model ocean inherent optical properties. To demonstrate the applicability of the TAMUVRTM, simulations are compared with satellite observations, and results from other vector radiative transfer methods including benchmarks.

radiative transfer in coupled atmosphere-ocean sys↗