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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Characterization and Computational Modeling of Minor Phases in Alloy LSHR

The minor phases of powder metallurgy disk superalloy LSHR were studied. Samples were consistently heat treated at three different temperatures for long times to approach equilibrium. Additional heat treatments were also performed for shorter times, to assess minor phase kinetics in non-equilibrium conditions. Minor phases including MC carbides, M23C6 carbides, M3B2 borides, and sigma were identified. Their average sizes and total area fractions were determined. CALPHAD thermodynamics databases and PrecipiCalc(TradeMark), a computational precipitation modeling tool, were employed with Ni-base thermodynamics and diffusion databases to model and simulate the phase microstructural evolution observed in the experiments with an objective to identify the model limitations and the directions of model enhancement.

Jou, Herng-Jeng↗

Development of a Conditioned System-Level Groundwater Model to Evaluate Long-Term Groundwater Impacts within a Performance Assessment - 20115

A preliminary performance assessment (PA) of single-shell tank Waste Management Area (WMA) A-AX located at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington is being conducted to satisfy the requirements of DOE Order 435.1 [1] as it relates to closure of the single-shell radioactive waste tanks in the WMA A-AX tank farms. A PA assesses the fate, transport, and impacts of radionuclides within a low-level radioactive waste disposal facility in its assumed closure configuration and the subsequent potential doses to humans over a 1,000-year compliance period and a 10,000-year performance evaluation period. The WMA A-AX preliminary PA evaluation is structured around the complementary use of process-level and system-level models to calculate the facility performance against established DOE Order 435.1 [1] performance objectives. Process-level models are those that represent a detailed phenomenological representation of processes of concern in the PA. Process models typically only represent one or a few of the components of the PA, such as groundwater flow and transport, and must be integrated with other modeling elements to perform PA calculations. System-level models are those that are abstracted from the process models, retaining the essential features of the process model, while allowing integration of all aspects of the PA in a single modeling framework. System-level models are often characterized by coarser numerical discretization, lower dimensionality, or other similar simplifications compared to the process-level model. Traditionally, a three-dimensional (3-D) process-level model is utilized primarily to evaluate the long-term impact on groundwater and the potential doses to individuals who consume contaminated groundwater. System-level models are also utilized to evaluate the groundwater pathway in PAs. These models typically have reduced dimensionality (1-D) and are conditioned utilizing flow fields (Darcy fluxes) and moisture content distributions that are abstracted from the process level models. The abstraction approach assures that the flow field in both models is consistent for a specific set of input parameters for flow, differing only in the discretization and dimensionality of the two models. The preliminary WMA A-AX PA incorporates a detailed representation of the geological system and hydraulic properties within the 3-D model STOMP{sup C} numerical code so that the effects of relevant features and processes on water flow and radionuclide transport in the subsurface can be evaluated. The complementary system-level model is developed utilizing the GoldSim{sup C} code to implement a simplified, 1-D equivalent model to represent the groundwater pathway. Contaminant transport through the vadose zone and unconfined aquifer for Tc-99 and I-129 were evaluated in each of the models. Adjustments to the saturated portion of the GoldSim{sup C} 1-D model were required to mimic the dispersion effect captured with the 3-D STOMP{sup C} model. Once this conditioning was conducted, highly similar results for the transport of Tc-99 and I-129 were achieved at the point of calculation, located 100 m downgradient from the WMA A-AX fenceline. These radionuclides represent elements that are regarded as primary dose drivers in the PA groundwater pathway analysis. The high degree of conformance between the two models suggests that the use of the equivalent 1-D system model is suitable for evaluating the full suite of radionuclides that will be released from the tank sources within WMA A-AX over the 1,000-year compliance period and over the 10,000-year evaluation period. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Theoretical models for stellar X-ray polarization in compact objects

Degenerate stellar objects are expected to be strong sources of polarized X-ray emission. This is particularly true for strongly magnetized neutron stars, e.g. accretion or rotation powered pulsars, and gamma ray bursters. In these, linear polarization degrees well in excess of 30 percent are expected. Weaker magnetic field stellar sources, such as old neutron stars in low mass binary systems, white dwarfs and black holes are expected to have polarization degrees in the range 1-3 percent. A great interest attaches to the detection of polarization in these objects, since this would provide invaluable information concerning the geometry, radiation mechanism and magnetic field strength, necessary for testing and proving models of the structure and evolution of stars in their late stages. In this paper we review the theoretical models of the production of polarized radiation in compact stellar X-ray sources, and discuss the possibility of detecting these properties using currently planned detectors to be flown in space.

Meszaros, P.↗

Numerical Model Studies of the Martian Mesoscale Circulations

The study objectives were to evaluate by numerical modeling various possible mesoscale circulation on Mars and related atmospheric boundary layer processes. The study was in collaboration with J. Tillman of the University of Washington (who supported the study observationally). Interaction has been made with J. Prusa of Iowa State University in numerical modeling investigation of dynamical effects of topographically-influenced flow. Modeling simulations included evaluations of surface physical characteristics on: (i) the Martian atmospheric boundary layer and (ii) their impact on thermally and dynamically forced mesoscale flows. Special model evaluations were made in support of selection of the Pathfinder landing sites. J. Tillman's finding of VL-2 inter-annual temperature difference was followed by model simulations attempting to point out the forcing for this feature. Publication of the results in the reviewed literature in pending upon completion of the manuscripts in preparation as indicated later.

Segal, Moti↗

How to form a wormhole

Abstract We provide a simple but very useful description of the process of wormhole formation. We place two massive objects in two parallel universes (modeled by two branes). Gravitational attraction between the objects competes with the resistance coming from the brane tension. For sufficiently strong attraction, the branes are deformed, objects touch and a wormhole is formed. Our calculations show that more massive and compact objects are more likely to fulfill the conditions for wormhole formation. This implies that we should be looking for wormholes either in the background of black holes and compact stars, or massive microscopic relics. Our formation mechanism applies equally well for a wormhole connecting two objects in the same universe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno

Infectious disease forecasting is an emerging field and has the potential to improve public health through anticipatory resource allocation, situational awareness, and mitigation planning. By way of exploring and operationalizing disease forecasting, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted FluSight since the 2013/14 flu season, an annual flu forecasting challenge. Since FluSight’s onset, forecasters have developed and improved forecasting models in an effort to provide more timely, reliable, and accurate information about the likely progression of the outbreak. While improving the predictive performance of these forecasting models is often the primary objective, it is also important for a forecasting model to run quickly, facilitating further model development and improvement while providing flexibility when deployed in a real-time setting. In this vein I introduce Inferno, a fast and accurate flu forecasting model inspired by Dante, the top performing model in the 2018/19 FluSight challenge. When pseudoprospectively compared to all models that participated in FluSight 2018/19, Inferno would have placed 2nd in the national and regional challenge as well as the state challenge, behind only Dante. Inferno, however, runs in minutes and is trivially parallelizable, while Dante takes hours to run, representing a significant operational improvement with minimal impact to performance. Forecasting challenges like FluSight should continue to monitor and evaluate how they can be modified and expanded to incentivize the development of forecasting models that benefit public health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Turbulence modeling

In recent years codes that use the Navier-Stokes equations to compute aerodynamic flows have evolved from computing two-dimensional flows around simple airfoils to computing flows around full scale aircraft configurations. Most flows of engineering interest are turbulent and turbulence models are needed for their prediction. Yet, it is known that present turbulence models are adequate only for simple flows and do poorly in complicated flows such as three-dimensional separation, or large-scale unsteadiness. The same progress that allowed the development of these aerodynamic codes, namely the introduction of supercomputers, has allowed us to compute directly turbulent flows, albeit only for simple flows at moderate Reynolds numbers. These direct turbulence simulations provide us with detailed data that experimentalists were not able to measure. This work is motivated by the fact that data exists for developing better turbulence models and by the need for better models to compute flows of engineering interest. The objective is to develop turbulence models for engineering applications. The model categories that show promise for immediate use are on the two-equation level and the Reynolds-stress level.

Shih, Tsan-Hsing↗

Modeling of the ground-to-SSFMB link networking features using SPW

This report describes the modeling and simulation of the networking features of the ground-to-Space Station Freedom manned base (SSFMB) link using COMDISCO signal processing work-system (SPW). The networking features modeled include the implementation of Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) protocols in the multiplexing of digitized audio and core data into virtual channel data units (VCDU's) in the control center complex and the demultiplexing of VCDU's in the onboard baseband signal processor. The emphasis of this work has been placed on techniques for modeling the CCSDS networking features using SPW. The objectives for developing the SPW models are to test the suitability of SPW for modeling networking features and to develop SPW simulation models of the control center complex and space station baseband signal processor for use in end-to-end testing of the ground-to-SSFMB S-band single access forward (SSAF) link.

Watson, John C.↗

Parametric Cost Modeling of Space Missions Using the Develop New Projects (DMP) Implementation Process

This paper presents an overview of a parametric cost model that has been built at JPL to estimate costs of future, deep space, robotic science missions. Due to the recent dramatic changes in JPL business practices brought about by an internal reengineering effort known as develop new products (DNP), high-level historic cost data is no longer considered analogous to future missions. Therefore, the historic data is of little value in forecasting costs for projects developed using the DNP process. This has lead to the development of an approach for obtaining expert opinion and also for combining actual data with expert opinion to provide a cost database for future missions. In addition, the DNP cost model has a maximum of objective cost drivers which reduces the likelihood of model input error. Version 2 is now under development which expands the model capabilities, links it more tightly with key design technical parameters, and is grounded in more rigorous statistical techniques. The challenges faced in building this model will be discussed, as well as it's background, development approach, status, validation, and future plans.

Rosenberg, Leigh↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-29062-DND

After more than three decades of research, the role of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in stratospheric ozone depletion is well established. However, important questions remain unanswered that have limited our understanding of PSC processes and how to accurately represent them in global models, calling into question our prognostic capabilities for future ozone loss in a changing climate. A more complete picture of PSC processes on vortex-wide scales is emerging from a suite of contemporary satellite missions: the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat (2002-2012), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura (2004-present), and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on CALIPSO (2006-present). These datasets have motivated numerous research activities that both extend and challenge our present knowledge of PSC processes and modeling capabilities. The SPARC PSC initiative was organized in January 2015 to address key questions related to PSCs and their representation in global models with the following main objectives: identify key PSC parameters required by global models; identify strengths and limitations of the PSC datasets; define a methodology to obtain the key PSC properties required by models from the observational datasets; develop a state of the art PSC climatology; and identify remaining open science questions. In this presentation, we describe the PSCi activity, key findings, and remaining open questions.

Michael C Pitts↗

Status of the Dielectric Constant of Sea Water at L-Band for Remote Sensing of Salinity

The model expressing the dielectric constant of sea water at microwave frequencies as a function of salinity and temperature is an important element in remote sensing of sea surface salinity. It is also important independently as a description of the physical properties of salt water. A major milestone was the development in the late 1970s by Klein and Swift of a model based on laboratory measurements at L- and S-band and a functional form supported by theory for polar molecules and previous work on freshwater. Much of the subsequent work has focused on measurements at higher frequency and determining model parameters tuned to apply for applications, such as remote sensing of sea surface temperature (SST). Interest in the dielectric constant at 1.4 GHz (L-band) increased again with the development of soil moisture ocean salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius to measure salinity from space, but there have been few new measurements at L-band and often confusion regarding the applicability of new models at 1.4 GHz. The objective of this article is to compare available models in the context of how well they represent the dielectric constant of sea water at 1.4 GHz. Among the criteria applied will be the recent measurements at the George Washington University of the dielectric constant at 1.4 GHz

Microwave Remote Sensing↗

Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, yet provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the GCAM. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low Speed Wind Tunnel Tests on a One-Seventh Scale Model of the H.126 Jet Flap Aircraft

Low speed wind tunnel tests were performed on a one-seventh scale model of the British H.126 jet flap research aircraft over a range of jet momentum coefficients. The primary objective was to compare model aerodynamic characteristics with those of the aircraft, with the intent to provide preliminary data needed towards establishing small-to-full scale correlating techniques on jet flap V/STOL aircraft configurations. Lift and drag coefficients from the model and aircraft tests were found to be in reasonable agreement. The pitching moment coefficient and trim condition correlation was poor. A secondary objective was to evaluate a modified thrust nozzle having thrust reversal capability. The results showed there was a considerable loss of lift in the reverse thrust operational mode because of increased nozzle-wing flow interference. A comparison between the model simulated H.126 wing jet efflux and the model uniform pressure distribution wing jet efflux indicated no more than 5% loss in weight flow rate.

Laub, G. H.↗

Spectrophotometry of the transient X-ray source A0620-00

Optical observations of the transient X-ray source A0620-00 over the wavelength range from about 3200 to 6600 A are analyzed which were made with the 5-m Hale telescope using a multichannel spectrometer, a digital spectrograph with a cooled integrating SIT vidicon, and an image photon-counting system attached to the camera of the coude spectrograph. Infrared observations at 1.65, 2.2, and 3.5 microns are also examined. Individual spectral lines of special interest are discussed, the E(B-V) color excess is estimated to be about 0.40, and a distance of 1200 pc is adopted. Analysis of the continuous spectrum yields several simple binary models. A specific model is proposed in which one of the continuum sources is an optically thick object characterized by a model atmosphere at a temperature of 25,000 to 30,000 K and the second source is either a cool black body at 4000 K or a partially optically thick source of bound-free plus free-free radiation from a hydrogen gas with an electron temperature of at least 100,000 K. Some possible parameters of these sources and of the accretion disk are considered.

Oke, J. B.↗

Qualitative models for space system engineering

The objectives of this project were: (1) to investigate the implications of qualitative modeling techniques for problems arising in the monitoring, diagnosis, and design of Space Station subsystems and procedures; (2) to identify the issues involved in using qualitative models to enhance and automate engineering functions. These issues include representing operational criteria, fault models, alternate ontologies, and modeling continuous signals at a functional level of description; and (3) to develop a prototype collection of qualitative models for fluid and thermal systems commonly found in Space Station subsystems. Potential applications of qualitative modeling to space-systems engineering, including the notion of intelligent computer-aided engineering are summarized. Emphasis is given to determining which systems of the proposed Space Station provide the most leverage for study, given the current state of the art. Progress on using qualitative models, including development of the molecular collection ontology for reasoning about fluids, the interaction of qualitative and quantitative knowledge in analyzing thermodynamic cycles, and an experiment on building a natural language interface to qualitative reasoning is reported. Finally, some recommendations are made for future research.

Forbus, Kenneth D.↗

A Comparison of Quasi-Static Indentation and Drop-Weight Impact Testing on Carbon/Epoxy Laminates

This project was initiated to investigate the damage tolerance of polymer matrix composites (PMC). After a low velocity impact-such as the ones that can occur during manufacturing or service there is usually very little visual damage. There are two possible methods to simulate foreign object impact on PMC: static indentation and drop weight impact. A static method for modeling low velocity foreign object impact events for composites can prove to be very beneficial to researchers since much more data can be obtained from a static test than from an impact test. In order to examine if this is feasible, a series of static indentation and low velocity impact tests were performed and compared. Square specimens of different sizes and thicknesses were tested to cover a wide array of low velocity impact events. Laminates with a 45 degree stacking sequence were used since this is a common type of engineering laminate. Three distinct flexural rigidities under two different boundary conditions were tested in order to obtain damage due to large deflections. Comparisons between static indentation and low velocity impact tests were based on the maximum applied transverse load. The dependent parameters examined were dent depth, back surface crack length, delamination area, and load-deflection behavior. Results showed that no distinct differences could be seen between the static indentation tests and the low velocity impact tests, indicating that static indentation tests can be used to simulate low velocity impact events.

Prabhakaran, R.↗

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence

A methodology has been conceived for efficient synthesis of dynamical models that simulate common-sense decision- making processes. This methodology is intended to contribute to the design of artificial-intelligence systems that could imitate human common-sense decision making or assist humans in making correct decisions in unanticipated circumstances. This methodology is a product of continuing research on mathematical models of the behaviors of single- and multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology, ranging from a single-cell organism at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the three most recent and relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO -21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO-30634), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72; and Complexity for Survival of Living Systems (NPO- 43302), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 33, No. 7 (July 2009), page 62. The methodology involves the concepts reported previously, albeit viewed from a different perspective. One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. Autonomy is imparted to the decisionmaking process by feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by information stored in the internal knowledge base. Representation of the dynamical models in a parameterized form reduces the task of common-sense-based decision making to a solution of the following hetero-associated-memory problem: store a set of m predetermined stochastic processes given by their probability distributions in such a way that when presented with an unexpected change in the form of an input out of the set of M inputs, the coupled motormental dynamics converges to the corresponding one of the m pre-assigned stochastic process, and a sample of this process represents the decision.

Zak, Michail↗

Nuclear Energy Model Intercomparison Project

This document summarizes the current status and future plans of the Nuclear Model Intercomparison Project. The objectives of this project are to understand how issues central to nuclear energy are modeled in long-term capacity expansion models, to investigate how model structures and input assumptions impact projections for nuclear’s role, to refine model representations of nuclear energy, and to communicate findings to the research community and decision-makers. High-level goals are discussed for each of the four participating model groups: the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This document summarizes scenarios and assumptions for the model comparison, outcomes from the first workshop, and next steps.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗