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Ecological Forecasting Project Management with Examples

Once scientists publish results of their projects and studies, all too often they end up on the shelf and are not otherwise used. The NASA Earth Science Division established its Applied Sciences Program (ASP) to apply research findings to help solve and manage real-world problems and needs. ASP-funded projects generally produce decision support systems for operational applications which are expected to last beyond the end of the NASA funding. Because of NASAs unique perspective of looking down on the Earth from space, ASP studies involve the use of remotely sensed information consisting of satellite data and imagery as well as information from sub-orbital platforms. ASP regularly solicits Earth science proposals that address one or more focus areas; disasters mitigation, ecological forecasting, health and air quality, and water resources. Reporting requirements for ASP-funded projects are different from those typical for research grants from NASA and other granting agencies, requiring management approaches different from other programs. This presentation will address the foregoing in some detail and give examples of three ASP-funded ecological forecasting projects that include: 1) the detection and survey of chimpanzee habitat in Africa from space, 2) harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the California Current System affecting aquaculture facilities and marine mammal populations, and 3) a call for the public to identify North America wildlife in Wisconsin using trail camera photos. Contact information to propose to ASP solicitations for those PIs interested is also provided.

Management↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗

Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long-term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest-forcing scenario.

drought↗

Could what that ESCO sales rep said really be true? Savings realization rates in ESPC versus bid-to-spec projects

Claims that savings realization is greater in energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) are rampant at least among energy service company representatives and other ESPC cheerleaders. But hard supporting evidence for these claims has been virtually non-existent. The Department of Energy's Federal Energy Management Program uses its Compliance Tracking System (CTS) database to document the performance of federal buildings and projects towards meeting various federal energy-saving goals. This paper focuses on preliminary analysis from CTS to understand and compare the performance of federal ESPCs with projects that have been implemented with more conventional government appropriations funding. The authors have found preliminary evidence using CTS that shows markedly higher savings realization rates among ESPC projects than appropriations-funded ones. There are numerous caveats to the data comparison that clamor for further study, but the difference is still intriguing. If borne out, this finding will provide concrete support to the idea that ESPCs guarantees and measurement and verification, long touted by energy service companies (ESCOs) as offering savings assurance, may truly yield substantial benefits. If ESPCs actually do perform better (i.e., have higher realization rates and savings persistence) than conventional bid-to-spec projects, the perceived premium for conducting them may look like a very good deal after all.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NREL Tools Help Identify and Evaluate Renewable Energy Projects

NREL offers no-cost, publicly available web tools that can be used throughout the development of behind-the-meter renewable energy projects. These tools help gauge initial project potential, optimize system sizing, and refine project economics. This flyer compares four tools that can be used at various stages of project development: Economic Site Analysis (ESA) Tool, PVWatts Calculator, REopt (TM) Lite, and System Advisor Model (SAM).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Walls Come Tumbling Down: Decontamination and Demolition of 29 Manhattan Project and Cold War-Era Buildings and Structures at Los Alamos National Laboratory-12301

When the nation's top scientists and military leaders converged on Los Alamos, New Mexico in the 1943, to work on the Manhattan Project, the facilities they used to conduct their top-secret work were quickly constructed and located in the middle of what eventually became the Los Alamos town site. After one of these early facilities caught on fire, it seemed wise to build labs and production facilities farther away from the homes of the town's residents. They chose to build facilities on what was then known as Delta Prime (DP) Mesa and called it Technical Area 21, or TA-21. With wartime urgency, a number of buildings were built at TA-21, some in as little as a few months. Before long, DP Mesa was populated with several nondescript metal and cinder-block buildings, including what became, immediately following the war, the world's first plutonium production facility. TA-21 also housed labs that used hazardous chemicals and analyzed americium, tritium and plutonium. TA-21 was a bustling center of research and production for the next several decades. Additional buildings were built there in the 1960's, but by the 1990's many of them had reached the end of their service lives. Labs and offices were moved to newer, more modern buildings. When Los Alamos National Laboratory received $212 million in funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in July 2009 for environmental cleanup projects, about $73 million of the funds were earmarked to decontaminate and demolish 21 of the old buildings at TA-21. Although some D and D of TA-21 buildings was performed in the 1990's, many of the facilities at DP Site remained relatively untouched for nearly three decades following their final operational use. In 2006, there were over three dozen buildings or structures on the mesa to be removed so that soil cleanup could be completed (and the land made available for transfer and reuse). The total footprint of buildings across the mesa was approximately 18,580 m{sup 2} (200,000 ft{sup 2}). The initially approved baseline for the ARRA D and D Project was to remove 22 buildings and structures that included approximately 14,680 m{sup 2} (158,000 ft{sup 2}) of footprint. By employing efficiencies during subcontracting, demolition, and waste segregation, the savings allowed an additional 1,580 m{sup 2} (17,000 ft{sup 2}) of footprint to be removed using ARRA funds. Additionally, the lessons learned from this experience were used to apply NNSA funding to the removal of six additional non-contaminated buildings and structures. In the end, 29 buildings and structures, including stacks, cooling towers and tanks, were removed from the mesa. The entire DP East area was cleared of buildings and sub-grade structures and the soils cleaned to residential standards. The total footprint reduction at TA-21 as a result of this effort was in excess of 17,650 m{sup 2} (190,000 ft{sup 2}). The use of a Laboratory self-performance team to start demolition of non-contaminated structures resulted in steady work performance early in the project while subcontracts were being put in place to perform more complicated abatement and contaminated demolition activities. Most importantly, there were no serious worker injuries and the minor injuries recorded were those common to construction type activities. Extensive monitoring along the site boundary demonstrated that no hazardous chemicals or radioactive contamination were released and radiological dose to the public was negligible. The ARRA demolition activities were completed six months in advance of the deadline for employing ARRA funds. Additionally, over 17,585 m{sup 3} (23,000 yds{sup 3}) of building demolition debris was safely removed from DP Mesa. All of the major buildings have been removed, unencumbered access to the SWMUs that are required to be cleaned up by the Consent Order with the state of New Mexico, has been achieved, and a significant portion of the mesa has been prepared to support a process that will eventually transfer this land from federal government control for further use. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The PHASE Project: New Research and Tools to Inform Pollinator Habitat on Utility-Scale Solar

The solar industry is responding to demand for building a clean energy future. At the same time, pollinator declines and habitat losses are resulting in listing consideration for once-common species like monarch butterflies, plus petitions to list bees and other species. How can projects responsibly co-locate pollinator plantings at solar facilities? What ecological and performance benefits can be realized from pollinator plantings? How do developers and owners weigh the costs and challenges of maintaining pollinator plantings and determine the effects it has on power generation, community acceptance, and operations? The Pollinator Habitat Aligned with Solar Energy (PHASE) project is a four-year research project that aims to answer these questions and better support the solar industry in successfully implementing pollinator plantings. This project is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office. In collaboration with an advisory group composed of industry and technical professionals, the PHASE team developed methodologies to evaluate the impacts of plantings on both biodiversity and the facility operations, including the diversity of plant and insect communities, pollinator services being provided by the site, and the effects of pollinator vegetation on panel temperature and efficiency. The PHASE team also used data to develop tools designed to better support solar industry decision-making on pollinator vegetation including a Pollinator Planting Implementation Manual, a Cost Comparison Tool, a Seed Selection Tool, and Habitat Assessment Module Guidance. Final versions of the four tools will be released this year.

agrivoltaic↗

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence in Federal Projects

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform grid operations. As energy demand rises, weather patterns shift, and foreign threats to critical infrastructure grow, it is essential to harness advanced technology to modernize the grid and increase overall resiliency. This paper examines the integration of AI in federally funded grid infrastructure projects. By analyzing project data, it evaluates the penetration and use cases of AI technologies within key funding initiatives and explores opportunities and challenges associated with their deployment. This analysis categorizes AI adoption in recent federal grid investments, establishing a baseline for measuring near-term impacts and identifying promising AI applications. The research found that 16% of recent federal energy projects included AI integration, and approximately 75% of these projects used AI for more than one primary application.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Framework for Project Development in the Renewable Energy Sector

The concepts, descriptions, diagrams, and acronyms developed and described herein are meant to provide a contextual framework as well as a systematic, repeatable process to assist a potential project sponsor in understanding and navigating early-stage project development. Professional project developers will recognize these concepts and hold them as intuitive and even obvious, though the fundamentals of this specialized field are rarely written down and defined as they are here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations

Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). Here, the model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases with warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertainty in future projections of the North Pacific subtropical high and its implication for California winter precipitation change: FUTURE CALIFORNIA PRECIPITATION

This study examines future projections of sea level pressure change in the North Pacific and its impact on winter precipitation changes in California. The multi-model analysis, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, shows a robust sea-level pressure change in the late 21st century over the western North Pacific in which both the Aleutian Low and North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) shift poleward in concert with a widening of the Hadley Cell. This change is partly explained by a systematic increase of static stability in the subtropics. However, over the eastern North Pacific, the projected NPSH changes exhibit a substantial inter-model spread, resulting in uncertain projections of precipitation changes in California. This inter-model spread in the eastern North Pacific is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like surface temperature change in the western North Pacific and the resulting meridional temperature gradient change. This study points to a major source of uncertainty for the response of winter precipitation to global warming over the West Coast of North America: atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Pacific.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes thatthe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely tocollapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS)mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in acommunity effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections usingeight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilisticuncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondaryimportance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [3%, 34%; 90% probability] in an intermediategreenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [15%, 65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, itstabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to 74% [+4%, 100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44%likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States

We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41 years in the historical period (1965 – 2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010 – 2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach a new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly, both winter (snow) and summer (liquid) extremes are projected to increase across the U.S. These changes in precipitation characteristics will be driven by a shift towards shorter and wetter seasons. Altogether, projected changes in the regional hydro-climate can have substantial impacts on the natural and human systems across the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected precipitation changes within the Great Lakes and Western Lake Erie Basin: a multi‐model analysis of intensity and seasonality

ABSTRACT The Great Lakes region encompasses the largest freshwater lake network in the world and supports a diverse network of agriculture, transportation, and tourism. Recently, Lake Erie has experienced increased hypoxia events, which have been attributed to agricultural practices and changes in run‐off. Here we examine the projected changes in extreme precipitation events to address concerns regarding regional agriculture, surface run‐off, and subsequent water quality. Precipitation projections within the overall Great Lakes Basin and the Western Lake Erie Basin subregion are examined using climate model simulations of varying spatial resolutions to understand historical precipitation and projected future precipitation. We develop three model ensembles for the historical period (1980–1999) and the mid‐century (2041–2060) that cover a range of spatial resolutions and future emissions scenarios, including: (1) 12 global model members from the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP5 ) using Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP ) 8.5, (2) ten regional climate model ( RCM ) members from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program driven by CMIP3 global models using the A2 emissions scenario, and (3) two high resolution RCM simulations ( RCM4 ) driven by CMIP5 global models using the RCP 8.5 scenario. For the historical period, all model ensembles overestimate winter and spring precipitation, and many of the models simulate a summer drying that is not observed. At mid‐century, most of the models predict a 10–20% increase in precipitation depending on the time of year. Daily probability distribution functions from three model ensembles reveal spring seasonal increases in high precipitation event probabilities when compared to the historical period, suggesting an increase in the frequency of high intensity precipitation at mid‐century. Overall, the presence of lakes or higher spatial resolution does not ensure improved representation of historical processes, and more complex interactions between large‐scale dynamics, local feedbacks, and physical parameterizations drive the model spread.

Basile, Samantha J.↗

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon ( Meiyu ) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Abstract The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu , produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

Tung, Yu‐Shiang↗

Variational projection methods for gradient crystal plasticity using Lie algebras

Summary A computational method is developed for evaluating the plastic strain gradient hardening term within a crystal plasticity formulation. While such gradient terms reproduce the size effects exhibited in experiments, incorporating derivatives of the plastic strain yields a nonlocal constitutive model. Rather than applying mixed methods, we propose an alternative method whereby the plastic deformation gradient is variationally projected from the elemental integration points onto a smoothed nodal field. Crucially, the projection utilizes the mapping between Lie groups and algebras in order to preserve essential physical properties, such as orthogonality of the plastic rotation tensor. Following the projection, the plastic strain field is directly differentiated to yield the Nye tensor. Additionally, an augmentation scheme is introduced within the global Newton iteration loop such that the computed Nye tensor field is fed back into the stress update procedure. Effectively, this method results in a fully implicit evolution of the constitutive model within a traditional displacement‐based formulation. An elemental projection method with explicit time integration of the plastic rotation tensor is compared as a reference. A series of numerical tests are performed for several element types in order to assess the robustness of the method, with emphasis placed upon polycrystalline domains and multi‐axis loading. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Truster, Timothy J.↗

International Projects Proposal Analysis: Risk Assessment Using Radial Maps

International projects are very attractive to companies seeking to expand their business horizons, and collaborative networks of international partners have created new work environments that differ from the conventional business structures of the past. This study provides scholarly research into the risks that inherently affect an international project's success and provides insight into the effective measures that project managers may employ to assist in analyzing and mitigating these multinational risks during the bid and proposal process. A new method of radial risk mapping assists management in graphing their risk findings to aid in their proposal analysis. These graphical representations provide firms seeking international markets with a method for selecting those projects with the least risk, thereby increasing their chances of success and maximum profit.

Steffey, R Wayne↗