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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

DESI 2024: reconstructing dark energy using crossing statistics with DESI DR1 BAO data

Here, we implement Crossing Statistics to reconstruct in a model-agnostic manner the expansion history of the universe and properties of dark energy, using DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) BAO data in combination with one of three different supernova compilations (PantheonPlus, Union3, and DES-SN5YR) and Planck CMB observations. Our results hint towards an evolving and emergent dark energy behaviour, with negligible presence of dark energy at z ≳ 1, at varying significance depending on data sets combined. In all these reconstructions, the cosmological constant lies outside the 95% confidence intervals for some redshift ranges. This dark energy behaviour, reconstructed using Crossing Statistics, is in agreement with results from the conventional w 0 –w a dark energy equation of state parametrization reported in the DESI Key cosmology paper. Our results add an extensive class of model-agnostic reconstructions with acceptable fits to the data, including models where cosmic acceleration slows down at low redshifts. We also report constraints on H 0 r d from our model-agnostic analysis, independent of the pre-recombination physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analytical Bit-Error Model of NAND Flash Memories for Dosimetry Application

In this work, we provide an analytical model for the total ionizing dose (TID) effects on the bit error statistics of commercial flash memory chips. We have validated the model with experimental data collected by irradiating several commercial NAND flash memory chips from different technology nodes. We find that our analytical model can project bit errors at higher TID values (~ 20 krad(Si)) from measured data at lower TID values (<1 krad(Si)). Based on our model and the measured data, we have formulated basic design rules for using a commercial flash memory chip as a dosimeter. We discuss the impact of NAND chip-to-chip variability, noise margin and the intrinsic errors on the dosimeter design using detailed experimentation.

3-D NAND↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Search of the Full Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey for Outer Solar System Objects

We present a search for outer solar system objects in the 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The DES covered a contiguous 5000 deg 2 of the southern sky with ≈80,000 3 deg 2 exposures in the grizY filters between 2013 and 2019. This search yielded 812 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), one Centaur and one Oort cloud comet, 458 reported here for the first time. We present methodology that builds upon our previous search on the first 4 yr of data. All images were reprocessed with an optimized detection pipeline that leads to an average completeness gain of 0.47 mag per exposure, as well as improved transient catalog production and algorithms for linkage of detections into orbits. All objects were verified by visual inspection and by the “sub-threshold significance,” the signal-to-noise ratio in the stack of images in which its presence is indicated by the orbit, but no detection was reported. This yields a pure catalog complete to r ≈ 23.8 mag and distances 29 < d < 2500 au. The TNOs have minimum (median) of 7 (12) nights’ detections and arcs of 1.1 (4.2) yr, and will have grizY magnitudes available in a further publication. We present software for simulating our observational biases for comparisons of models to our detections. Initial inferences demonstrating the catalog’s statistical power are: the data are inconsistent with the CFEPS-L7 model for the classical Kuiper Belt; the 16 “extreme” TNOs (a > 150 au, q > 30 au) are consistent with the null hypothesis of azimuthal isotropy; and nonresonant TNOs with q > 38 au, a > 50 au show a significant tendency to be sunward of major mean-motion resonances.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative assessment of particle dispersion in polymeric composites and its effect on mechanical properties

In this work, an automated image analysis tool is developed to establish quantitative correlations between the particle/cluster size distribution and the mechanical properties of particle reinforced polymer composites (PRPC).This automated image analysis tool is developed within python programming software to process and analyze the microstructural images of the polymerbased composite materials. The spent coffee bean powder (SCBP) reinforced poly-propylene carbonate (PPC) polymer composite with differing wt.% of the filler is selected for the analysis. Detailed statistical analysis of the microstructural images reveals that ‘clustering of clusters’ is also presented in addition to the most commonly reported ‘clustering of particles’, and the distribution of particle/clusters is bimodal. Based on these findings, an effective volume fraction for the filler material is proposed to mainly capture the agglomeration effect. With this effective volume fraction, the standard rule-of-mixture model correctly captures the experimentally measured tensile strength and modulus as a function of filler wt.%. Further, the applicability of this effective volume fraction for other theoretical models is also analyzed. The detailed statistical analysis of the microstructure and the proposed effective volume fraction helps to develop a deeper quantitative understanding of the PRPC than the conventional qualitative correlation of microstructural features with the properties and failure processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new metrics framework for quantifying and intercomparing atmospheric rivers in observations, reanalyses, and climate models

We present a new atmospheric river (AR) analysis and benchmarking tool, namely Atmospheric River Metrics Package (ARMP). It includes a suite of new AR metrics that are designed for quick analysis of AR characteristics via statistics in gridded climate datasets such as model output and reanalysis. This package can be used for climate model evaluation in comparison with reanalysis and observational products. Integrated metrics such as mean bias and spatial pattern correlation are efficient for diagnosing systematic AR biases in climate models. For example, the package identifies the fact that, in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6) models, AR tracks in the South Atlantic are positioned farther poleward compared to ERA5 reanalysis, while in the South Pacific, tracks are generally biased towards the Equator. For the landfalling AR peak season, we find that most climate models simulate a completely opposite seasonal cycle over western Africa. This tool can also be used for identifying and characterizing structural differences among different AR detectors (ARDTs). For example, ARs detected with the Mundhenk algorithm exhibit systematically larger size, width, and length compared to the TempestExtremes (TE) method. The AR metrics developed from this work can be routinely applied for model benchmarking and during the development cycle to trace performance evolution across model versions or generations and set objective targets for the improvement of models. They can also be used by operational centers to perform near-real-time climate and extreme event impact assessments as part of their forecast cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

Abstract The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi‐model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA‐2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining the phase shift of relativistic species in DESI BAOs

In the early Universe, neutrinos decouple quickly from the primordial plasma and propagate without further interactions. The impact of free-streaming neutrinos is to create a temporal shift in the gravitational potential that impacts the acoustic waves known as baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs), resulting in a non-linear spatial shift in the Fourier-space BAO signal. In this work, we make use of and extend upon an existing methodology to measure the phase shift amplitude $\beta _{\phi }$ and apply it to the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) BAOs with an anisotropic BAO fitting pipeline. We validate the fitting methodology by testing the pipeline with two publicly available fitting codes applied to highly precise cubic box simulations and realistic simulations representative of the DESI DR1 data. We find further study towards the methods used in fitting the BAO signal will be necessary to ensure accurate constraints on $\beta _{\phi }$ in future DESI data releases. Using DESI DR1, we present individual measurements of the anisotropic BAO distortion parameters and the $\beta _{\phi }$ for the different tracers, and additionally a combined fit to $\beta _{\phi }$ resulting in $\beta _{\phi } = 2.7 \pm 1.7$. After including a prior on the distortion parameters from constraints using Planck we find $\beta _{\phi } = 2.7^{+0.60}_{-0.67}$ suggesting $\beta _{\phi } > 0$ at 4.3$\sigma$ significance. This result may hint at a phase shift that is not purely sourced from the standard model expectation for $N_{\rm {eff}}$ or could be a upwards statistical fluctuation in the measured $\beta _{\phi }$; this result relaxes in models with additional freedom beyond Lambda-cold dark matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guiding the Design of Heterogeneous Electrode Microstructures for Li-Ion Batteries: Microscopic Imaging, Predictive Modeling, and Machine Learning

Electrochemical and mechanical properties of lithium-ion battery materials are heavily dependent on their 3D microstructure characteristics. A quantitative understanding of the role played by stochastic microstructures is critical for the prediction of material properties and for guiding synthesis processes. Furthermore, tailoring microstructure morphology is also a viable way of achieving optimal electrochemical and mechanical performances of lithium-ion cells. To facilitate the establishment of microstructure-resolved modeling and design methods, a review covering spatially and temporally resolved imaging of microstructure and electrochemical phenomena, microstructure statistical characterization and stochastic reconstruction, microstructure-resolved modeling for property prediction, and machine learning for microstructure design is presented here. The perspectives on the unresolved challenges and opportunities in applying experimental data, modeling, and machine learning to improve the understanding of materials and identify paths toward enhanced performance of lithium-ion cells are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Error Bounds for Low-Rank Tensor Decompositions Used in Large-Scale Data Analysis Applications (LDRD Final Report)

This report documents a research project on analyzing low-rank tensor models for data analysis that took place at Sandia National Laboratories from October 2023–September 2025. The focus of this work was to extend theoretical frameworks from statistics and probability theory for use with models for scalar, vector, and matrix data to models with tensor, or general multi-dimensional array, data. Through this work, we have provided a new set of tools for bounding errors on low-rank tensor models of both complete and sampled data. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 1, we describe the proposed work at the start of the project. Section 2 describes the research advances made as part of the project. Other research contributions in the form of conference presentations and software development is provided in Section 3. Workforce development at Sandia and Florida Atlantic University (via a subcontract on this project) is provided in Section 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

“Which Projections Do I Use?” Strategies for Climate Model Ensemble Subset Selection Based on Regional Stakeholder Needs

Climate model (or earth system model) projections are increasingly used for climate adaptation planning and impact assessments. As part of this process, many end‐users evaluate a subset of downscaled climate projections without being aware of the implications of downscaling methodology for statistics or event outcomes. Approaches for determining a subset of global climate models to use often focus on values from the raw models, rather than from their downscaled counterparts, in other words assuming that the statistical distribution of the multi‐model ensemble does not change post downscaling. This study demonstrates that a downscaled ensemble will typically retain the change distribution as a raw ensemble, but individual models can differ dramatically post‐downscaling. We recommend that subset‐selection methods account for this possibility and that decision‐relevant downscaled climate projections provide proper descriptions of fitness‐for‐purpose and essential caveats, so that non‐specialists can interpret the results with an appropriate level of confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Producing two-dimensional dust clouds and clusters using a movable electrode for complex plasma and fundamental physics experiments

We report a Bidirectional Electrode Control Arm Assembly (BECAA) for precisely manipulating dust clouds levitated above the powered electrode in RF plasmas. The reported techniques allow the creation of perfectly 2D dust layers by eliminating off-plane particles by moving the electrode from outside the plasma chamber without altering the plasma conditions. Here, the tilting and moving of electrodes using BECAA also allows the precise and repeatable elimination of dust particles one by one to achieve any desired number of grains N without trial and error. Simultaneously acquired top and side view images of dust clusters show that they are perfectly planar or 2D. A demonstration of clusters with N = 1–28 without changing the plasma conditions is presented to show the utility of BECAA for complex plasma and statistical physics experimental design. Demonstration videos and 3D printable part files are available for easy reproduction and adaptation of this new method to repeatably produce 2D clusters in existing RF plasma chambers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems

Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiple Metrics Informed Projections of Future Precipitation in China

Predicting how regional precipitation will respond to future warming is among the most challenging undertaking in climate change projection. Despite sustained efforts to improve modeling and understanding of precipitation, the overall uncertainty in projecting regional precipitation has not been reduced substantially. In this work, the potential for more robust precipitation projections is demonstrated through the use of discriminating metrics to subsample the multimodel ensemble. Using a two-dimensional metric of precipitation and its relationship with large-scale circulation indices in East Asia, 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are classified into three groups. Models in the top performing group projected statistically significant increasing trends in precipitation and the regional precipitation patterns are more similar to each other than to the patterns in the bottom performing group. In contrast, models in the bottom performing group projected diverse responses, with overall small drying or no significant trends in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Get on the BAND Wagon: a Bayesian framework for quantifying model uncertainties in nuclear dynamics

In this paper, we describe the Bayesian Analysis of Nuclear Dynamics (BAND) framework, a cyberinfrastructure that we are developing which will unify the treatment of nuclear models, experimental data, and associated uncertainties. We overview the statistical principles and nuclear-physics contexts underlying the BAND toolset, with an emphasis on Bayesian methodology's ability to leverage insight from multiple models. In order to facilitate understanding of these tools we provide a simple and accessible example of the BAND framework's application. Four case studies are presented to highlight how elements of the framework will enable progress on complex, far-ranging problems in nuclear physics. By collecting notation and terminology, providing illustrative examples, and giving an overview of the associated techniques, this paper aims to open paths through which the nuclear physics and statistics communities can contribute to and build upon the BAND framework.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗