Wave energy resource characterization with ultra-high resolution wave model hindcast data.
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Poster presentation for 2023 NETL Carbon Management Review Meeting
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REACT-COMPACT is used to estimate localized graphite corrosion, fuel compact corrosion, and fuel hydrolysis by water vapor for a unit cell geometry within a High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) fuel block. REACT-COMPACT may also be used to model corrosion in regions with graphite only, including core support posts. REACT-COMPACT solves the species-conservation equation for water vapor in a porous carbon medium for cylindrical geometry. Boundary-layer mass transfer from a helium coolant is modeled at either the inner or outer radius. Within the porous carbon medium, both diffusive and convective transport mechanisms are modeled. The reaction of water vapor with carbonaceous materials is modeled according to a Langmuir-Hinshelwood mechanism. The fuel hydrolysis reaction rate is based on a semi-empirical model derived from experimental data. Model parameters, including densities, void fractions, burn off factors for the intrinsic reaction rates, and diffusivity of water vapor in porous carbon, are evaluated as functions of local burn off. The effects of void-fraction gradients on transport processes are also modeled. REACT-COMPACT also solves the mass conservation equations for reacting fuel and carbonaceous materials, which are coupled in a nonlinear manner to the water-vapor conservation equation because of burn off effects. For this reason, a numerical finite-difference solution is used. This paper describes the theoretical basis for REACT-COMPACT and results for sample problems under representative HTGR conditions. (author)
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Process mining for conformance analysis consists of comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model generated via log files from information technology systems. However, in the absence of a complete reference process model, we found no suggested approaches in the literature to address the need for evaluating process conformance among different healthcare facilities to assess standardization of care. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities that can be indicative of patient safety issues. Our hypothesis was that the analysis would not produce statistically significant differences in outcome. We present a unique implementation of conformance analysis in process mining that consists of combining process mining, process mapping and statistical metrics. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the analysis of two clinical radiology order process models generated from healthcare data provided by two similar facilities in the VHA. The comparative assessment showed that about 70% of the orders completed successfully and 30% were not completed due to policy and duplications. Our analysis found a good statistical correlation between both facilities, as the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between facilities for the frequency of cases per total hours was 0.87879, for the frequency of cases by state transition was 0.79702 and for the throughput time per state transition was 0.63582. Additional statistical analyses using the Mann-Whitney U test and the root mean square error both produced values that were not significant. The foregoing approach validated our hypothesis by demonstrating a good statistical correlation of data describing the flow of clinical radiology orders absent a credible reference model. Finding good agreement between both facilities was important in confirming that the clinical orders flow in a similar manner, suggesting standardization of care.
The NASA Global Modeling Initiative has developed a combined stratosphere/troposphere chemistry and transport model which fully represents the processes governing atmospheric composition near the tropopause. We evaluate model ozone distributions near the tropopause, using two high vertical resolution monthly mean ozone profile climatologies constructed with ozonesonde data, one by averaging on pressure levels and the other relative to the thermal tropopause. Model ozone is high biased at the SH tropical and NH midlatitude tropopause by approx. 45% in a 4 deg. latitude x 5 deg. longitude model simulation. Increasing the resolution to 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. increases the NH tropopause high bias to approx. 60%, but decreases the tropical tropopause bias to approx. 30%, an effect of a better-resolved residual circulation. The tropopause ozone biases appear not to be due to an overly vigorous residual circulation or excessive stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but are more likely due to insufficient vertical resolution or excessive vertical diffusion near the tropopause. In the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, model/measurement intercomparisons are strongly affected by the averaging technique. NH and tropical mean model lower stratospheric biases are less than 20%. In the upper troposphere, the 2 deg. x 2.5 deg. simulation exhibits mean high biases of approx. 20% and approx. 35% during April in the tropics and NH midlatitudes, respectively, compared to the pressure averaged climatology. However, relative-to-tropopause averaging produces upper troposphere high biases of approx. 30% and 70% in the tropics and NH midlatitudes. This is because relative-to-tropopause averaging better preserves large cross-tropopause O3 gradients, which are seen in the daily sonde data, but not in daily model profiles. The relative annual cycle of ozone near the tropopause is reproduced very well in the model Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In the tropics, the model amplitude of the near tropopause annual cycle is weak. This is likely due to the annual amplitude of mean vertical upwelling near the tropopause, which analysis suggests is approx. 30% weaker than in the real atmosphere.
A database can greatly benefit a quantitative analysis. The defining characteristic of a quantitative risk, or reliability, model is the use of failure estimate data. Models can easily contain a thousand Basic Events, relying on hundreds of individual data sources. Obviously, entering so much data by hand will eventually lead to errors. Not so obviously entering data this way does not aid linking the Basic Events to the data sources. The best way to organize large amounts of data on a computer is with a database. But a model does not require a large, enterprise-level database with dedicated developers and administrators. A database built in Excel can be quite sufficient. A simple spreadsheet database can link every Basic Event to the individual data source selected for them. This database can also contain the manipulations appropriate for how the data is used in the model. These manipulations include stressing factors based on use and maintenance cycles, dormancy, unique failure modes, the modeling of multiple items as a single "Super component" Basic Event, and Bayesian Updating based on flight and testing experience. A simple, unique metadata field in both the model and database provides a link from any Basic Event in the model to its data source and all relevant calculations. The credibility for the entire model often rests on the credibility and traceability of the data.
CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.
Measured plane-of-array (POA) irradiance may provide a lower-cost alternative to standard irradiance component data for photovoltaic (PV) system performance modeling without loss of accuracy. Previous work has shown that transposition models typically used by PV models to calculate POA irradiance from horizontal data introduce error into the POA irradiance estimates, and that measured POA data can correlate better to measured performance data. However, popular PV modeling tools historically have not directly used input POA data. This paper introduces a new capability in NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) to directly use POA data in PV modeling, and compares SAM results from both POA irradiance and irradiance components inputs against measured performance data for eight operating PV systems.
Ground-based transient electromagnetic (TEM) data were acquired in selected locations around Belle Creek, Montana to define the resistivity structure of the near surface. Data were acquired using the ABEM WalkTEM system (Guideline Geo Ab, Sundbyberg, Sweden). TEM data were processed and numerically inverted to derive one-dimensional resistivity structure using SPIA (Aarhus Geosoftware, Aarhus, Denmark). This release includes raw and processed TEM data and resistivity models for each data location using the following structure: Ground-based_transient_electromagnetic_data_and_resistivity_models_for_SubTER_BelleCreek_2017-2018.xml SBC_TEM_2019_SoundingLocationsModels.gdb.zip - file geodatabase with all models and plots attached. This is a mirror of the contents of the model directory. Ground-based_transient_electromagnetic_data_and_resistivity_models_for_SubTER_BelleCreek_2017-2018.zip Data SBC_USF - raw data USF_format_description.pdf - manual describing the USF file format SBC_SoundingID-USF_lookup.csv - table describing the USF file naming convention and channel mapping *.usf files - raw, unprocessed data files SBC_TEM - processed data AarhusInv_manual.pdf - manual describing the TEM file format *.tem files - processed data files Models SBC_Model_Plots - plots of the data and the models for each sounding location TEM_model_data_dictionary.csv - data dictionary describing tabulated models SBC_TEM_models.csv - tabulated models
Quantitative models of the external magnetospheric field were derived by making least-squares fits to magnetic field measurements from four IMP satellites. The data were fit to a power series expansion in the solar magnetic coordinates and the solar wind-dipole tilt angle, and thus the models contain the effects of seasonal north-south asymmetries. The expansions are divergence-free, but unlike the usual scalar potential expansions, the models contain a nonzero curl representing currents distributed within the magnetosphere. Characteristics of four models are presented, representing different degrees of magnetic disturbance as determined by the range of Kp values. The latitude at the earth separating open polar cap field lines from field lines closing on the dayside is about 5 deg lower than that determined by previous theoretically-derived models. At times of high Kp, additional high latitude field lines are drawn back into the tail.
Matlab scripts and functions and data used to build Poly3D models and create permeability potential GIS layers for 1) Mount St. Helens seismic zone, 2) Wind River Valley, and 3) Mount Baker geothermal prospect areas located in Washington state.