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Combustion Performance and Emissions Optimization Through Integration of a Miniaturized High-Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, five mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s Leland Olds Unit 1. The systems were demonstrated over a 6-week period during typical operation. Sensor measurements of deposit thickness were validated during the demonstration and subsequently leveraged to determine sensor-based boiler cleaning strategies. These strategies have the benefit of reduced thermal stresses on boiler tubes from over-cleaning and improved boiler water management. At the end of the project, continued development of the sensor technology was carried out at PacifiCorp’s Hunter Station. REI leveraged the permanent installation of the mMPMS in Unit 3 made possible by DOE funding on a separate program. The work at Hunter Plant focused on application of machine learning and artificial intelligence-based models for integration of sensor signals into control and optimization of Hunter Unit 3 processes.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Development of Miniaturized High Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

A. Development of Miniaturized High Temperature Multi Process Monitoring System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development for a PC-Fired Unit

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Real-time sensor measurements to evaluate impacts of load cycling on high-temperature fire-side corrosion in a PC boiler

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development and Demonstration at Coalfired Power Plants

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Full-scale Demonstration of Multi-process Sensor at a Cycling PC-fired Boiler

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Parasitic current collection by PASP Plus solar arrays

Solar cells at potentials positive with respect to a surrounding plasma collect electrons. Current is collected by the exposed high voltage surfaces: the interconnects and the sides of the solar cells. This current is a drain on the array power that can be significant for high-power arrays. In addition, this current influences the current balance that determines the floating potential of the spacecraft. One of the objectives of the Air Force (PL/GPS) PASP Plus (Photovoltaic Array Space Power Plus Diagnostics) experiment is an improved understanding fo parasitic current collection. We have done computer modeling of parasitic current collection and have examined current collection flight data from the first year of operations. Prior to the flight we did computer modeling to improve our understanding of the physical processes that control parasitic current collection. At high potentials, the current rapidly rises due to a phenomenon called snapover. Under snapover conditions, the equilibrium potential distribution across the dielectric surface is such that part of the area is at potentials greater than the first crossover of the secondary yield curve. Therefore, each incident electron generates more than one secondary electron. The net effect is that the high potential area and the collecting area increase. We did two-dimensional calculations for the various geometries to be flown. The calculations span the space of anticipated plasma conditions, applied potential, and material parameters. We used the calculations and early flight data to develop an analytic formula for the dependence of the current on the primary problem variables. The analytic formula was incorporated into the EPSAT computer code. EPSAT allows us to easily extend the results to other conditions. PASP Plus is the principal experiment integrated onto the Advanced Photovoltaic and Electronics Experiments (APEX) satellite bus. The experiment is testing twelve different solar array designs. Parasitic current collection is being measured for eight of the designs under various operational and environment conditions. We examined the current collected as a function of the various parameters for the six non-concentrator designs. The results are similar to those obtained in previous experiments and predicted by the calculations. We are using the flight data to validate the analytic formula developed. The formula can be used to quantify the parasitic current collected. Anticipating the parasitic current value allows the spacecraft designer to include this interaction when developing the design.

Davis, Victoria Ann↗

High-Temperature Multi-Process Sensor Development and Demonstration at a Full-scale PC Combustion System

The main objective of this research program is to design, manufacture, and demonstrate a miniaturized, multi-process, monitoring system (mMPMS) for boiler condition management and easy system deployment to obtain a higher spatial resolution. This system will facilitate a Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) philosophy that actively monitors the health of assets to predict and prevent failures and maximize availability and generating capacity at a reduced cost. CBM systems can provide boiler data that the advanced process control (APC) system can utilize for plant performance optimization, which is increasingly relevant as coal power plants shift from predominantly base-load operation to predominantly transient operation involving large load swings. The mMPMS is based on an electrochemical sensor that provides a real-time indication of the risk of damage to key locations in the radiant or convective section of a coal-fired boiler such as metal loss rates, heat flux, metal surface temperature, and deposit thickness. These indications can be utilized to optimize boiler performance as well as improve boiler availability in conjunction with corresponding operating conditions. This monitoring system was developed and tested in the high-temperature regions of coal-fired utility boilers in this project but can be applied to many other industries and applications as well. This project leveraged the existing electrochemical noise-based monitoring system and the new sensor design is small enough to be installed through the webbing of the waterwalls without the need for long shut-downs to bend tubes and to make it feasible to obtain high spatial resolution in the boiler. Data is transferred to the plant distributed control system (DCS) and any other control system. The sensor body that houses the sensor assembly was designed to ensure good conductive contact with boiler tubes to ensure the sensor is held at an identical temperature to the tube surface temperature. The data acquisition and signal conditioning modules were redesigned into a small footprint with optimized cooling of the module. System software was developed specifically for the new signal conditioning module and is compatible with plant PLCs. After the preliminary testing at a pilot-scale facility, the three mMPMS were installed at a full-scale pulverized coal-fired plant, PacifiCorp’s Hunter 3. The systems were demonstrated over 20,000 hours at the plant during regular operation. Also, the sensor data was fed to the plant’s advanced process control system to evaluate the corrosion control by the operation changes and utilized to understand the impacts of load cycling with different ramping up and down speeds. At the end of the project, the systems were converted to the permanent installation at the power plant to be used with the advanced process control system installed at the plant.

Advanced Sensors, Corrosion, Ash Deposition, Optim↗

Challenges to Evaluating Ecological Risks in Performance Assessments - 18424

Performance assessments (PAs), whether probabilistic or deterministic, have largely focused on evaluating human health effects of radionuclides. In the past, it was asserted that protecting human health would automatically protect the environment. This blanket assertion has been questioned, so tools and methodologies to directly estimate non-human biota dose have been developed and made available since the early 2000's. For example, the Biota Dose Assessment Committee (BDAC) guidance led to the development of the RESRAD-BIOTA (RESRAD stands for Residual Radioactive materials) software to implement this guidance. The BDAC was a US Department of Energy (DOE) led working group with members from academia and consultancies in addition to DOE technical staff. Parallel efforts have been in place in Europe with the development of the ERICA tool (Environmental Risk from Ionising Contaminants: Assessment and Management). More recently, interpretation of the requirements of US Department of Energy (DOE) Order O458.1 have led some waste management facilities to include ecological risks in addition to human health effects in their PAs. We have recently developed methodologies to assess ecological risks within probabilistic PAs (PPAs) for two Federal facilities. One of the challenges in applying the non-human biota assessment models to PPAs is that ecological risk assessments following US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or DOE guidance start with protective screening assessments before moving into more site-specific ecological risk assessments. Conservative assumptions bias the screening assessments and greatly overestimate the risks posed by contaminants. However, although the screens are biased they can be useful in ruling out model spatial domain areas or types of biota from requiring further assessment. In some cases, the results of the screen could entirely rule out ecological risks from further assessment. For a more refined and unbiased estimate of dose to non-human biota, one would typically conduct site-specific studies to better define exposure through the food web or adverse effects based on eco-toxicity studies of environmental, and generally weathered, contaminant mixtures. However, for PPAs that consider future site conditions after the loss of institutional control, such site-specific studies are not possible. Rather, site-specific future ecological risk models use probabilistic inputs that result in a distribution of population doses or exposures and calculate the distribution of possible adverse effects to ecological populations. This approach considers both radionuclide and chemical inventory. For both Federal facilities, the model spatial domains include riparian and aquatic environments located downstream of the waste management site. These riparian and aquatic environments represent linear exposure elements for some wildlife populations and require special consideration of exposures to individuals and to populations along such spatial domains. At a minimum, wildlife foraging should be focused along the axis of such water bodies. Another challenge is how to incorporate ecologically relevant spatial scales into models that have contaminant transport as the primary focus. Riparian and aquatic environments also have threatened and endangered (T and E) species, which necessitate greater levels of protection given their rarity. A final challenge for conducting ecological risk assessments is how to evaluate T and E species in the future. This might be addressed by evaluating potential for impacts on individuals of feeding guilds with species that are currently threatened or endangered. We also have to consider how ecological populations might change as a result of climate change. It is a more difficult problem to predict what species might become rare in the future, and how to best assess future populations of threatened or endangered species. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Tectonic-Climate Interactions in Action Orogenic Belts: Quantification of Dynamic Topography with SRTM data

This project was undertaken to examine the approach to steady state in collisional mountain belts. Although the primary thrust of this grant was to look at larger collisional mountain belts, such as the Himalaya, the Tien Shan, and Southern Alps, we began by looking at smaller structures represented by growing and propagating folds. Like ranges that are evolving toward a topographic steady state, these folds undergo a series of morphologic changes as they are progressively uplifted and eroded. We wanted to document the nature of these changes and to try to discern some of the underlying controls on them. We initially focused on the Wheeler Ridge anticline in southern California. Subsequently, we progressed to looking at the topographic development and the effects of differential uplift and glaciation on the Kyrgyz Range in the northern Tien Shan. This range is unusual inasmuch as it is transformed along its length from a simple uplift with a largely preserved Mesozoic erosion surface arching across it to a highly dissected and heavily glaciated uplift in the region where uplift has been sustained at higher rates over longer intervals. In efforts to understand the distribution of erosion rates at 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 5) year time scales, cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) concentrations have been gaining increasingly widespread usage (Brown et al., 1995; Riebe et al., 2004; Riebe et al., 2001; Vance et al., 2003). Most studies to date, however, have been conducted in slowly eroding ranges. In rapidly eroding mountains where landslides deliver most of the sediments to the rivers, we hypothesized that CRN concentrations could be highly perturbed by the stochastic processes of landsliding. Therefore, we undertook the development of a numerical model that simulated the effects of both landsliding and grain-by-grain attrition within fluvial catchments. This modeling effort has shown the effects of catchment size and erosion rate on CRN concentrations and allows a prediction of where to sample to obtain the optimal erosion rate estimates using CRN techniques. Finally, we developed computational techniques to operate on DEMs to extract useful information that would enable quantification of climate-erosion interactions. In particular, we worked on rapid techniques to define catchments of any given range of sizes, to extract channel gradients, to combine precipitation information to calculate discharge, and to utilize various stream-power models to determine the erosional energy within any given catchment within a transect. We briefly describe results from Wheeler Ridge, the Kyrgyz Range, the Nepal Himalaya, and our numerical modeling.

Burbank, Douglas W.↗

Programmable Thermostats for MPLM Shell Heater Control ULF1: Thermal Performances - 1

The Multi-Purpose Logistics Module (MPLM) is the primary carrier for "pressurized" logistics to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The MPLM is transported in the payload bay of the Space Shuttle and is docked to the ISS for unloading, and reloading, of contents within the ISS shirt sleeve environment. Foil heaters, controlled originally with bi-metallic thermostats, are distributed across the outside of the MPLM structure and are utilized to provide energy to the structure to avoid exposure to cold temperatures and prevent condensation. The existing bi-metallic, fixed temperature set point thermostats have been replaced with Programmable Thermostats Modules (PTMs) in the Passive Thermal Control Subsystem (PTCS) 28Vdc shell heater circuits. The goal of using the PTM thermostat is to improve operational efficiency of the MPLM on-orbit shell heaters by providing better shell temperature control via feedback control capability. Each heater circuit contains a programmable thermostat connected to an external temperature sensor, a Resistive Temperature Device (RTD), which is used to provide continuous temperature monitoring capability. Each thermostat has programmable temperature set points and control spans. The data acquisition system uses a standard RS-485 serial interface communications cable to provide digital control capability. The PTM system was designed by MSFC, relying upon ALTEC support for their integration within the MPLM system design, while KSC performed the installation and ground checkout testing of the thermostat and RS-485 communication cable on the MPLM FM1 flight module. The PTMs were used for the first time during the STS-121/ULF1.1 mission. This paper will describe the design, development and verification of the PTM system, as well as the PTM flight performance and comparisons with SINDA thermal model predictions.

Glasgow, Shaun↗

A multi-dimensional parametric study of variability in multi-phase flow dynamics during geologic CO 2 sequestration accelerated with machine learning

Successful geologic CO 2 storage projects depend on numerical simulations to predict reservoir performance during site selection, injection verification, and post-injection monitoring phases of the project. These numerical simulations solve non-linear sets of coupled partial differential equations, while accounting for multi-phase fluid dynamics on the basis of constitutive equations that are embedded into the solution scheme. As a consequence, individual simulations often require tens to hundreds of hours to complete on high-performance computing clusters. Moreover, laboratory experiments reveal that parametric functions for capillary pressure and relative permeability exhibit substantial variability, even within the same rock type. This combination of computational expense and wide-ranging parametric variability means that there remains substantial uncertainty in the behavior of multi-phase CO 2 -water systems, particularly in the context of feedbacks between relative permeability and capillary pressure. To bridge this knowledge gap, here we develop a novel workflow that utilizes physics-based numerical simulation to train an artificial neural network (ANN) emulator for interrogating the multivariate parameter space that governs both capillary pressure and relative permeability. With this approach, the ANN is trained to emulate both fluid pressure distribution and CO 2 saturation, which are then interrogated quantitatively to generate parametric response surface mappings with high-fidelity resolution. Results from this study initially show that capillary entry pressure is the dominant control on both CO 2 plume geometry and fluid pressure propagation when considering the combined effects of capillary pressure and relative permeability, particularly when phase interference is low and residual CO 2 saturation is high. Moreover, the ANN emulator provides tremendous computational speed-up by computing 2691 individual simulations in several minutes; whereas, the same simulation ensemble would have required ~3 years of simulation time using only physics-based simulation methods (25,000 times speed up).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Charge Analyzer Responsive Local Oscillations

The first transatlantic radio transmission, demonstrated by Marconi in December of 1901, revealed the essential role of the ionosphere for radio communications. This ionized layer of the upper atmosphere controls the amount of radio power transmitted through, reflected off of, and absorbed by the atmospheric medium. Low-frequency radio signals can propagate long distances around the globe via repeated reflections off of the ionosphere and the Earth's surface. Higher frequency radio signals can punch through the ionosphere to be received at orbiting satellites. However, any turbulence in the ionosphere can distort these signals, compromising the performance or even availability of space-based communication and navigations systems. The physics associated with this distortion effect is analogous to the situation when underwater images are distorted by convecting air bubbles. In fact, these ionospheric features are often called 'plasma bubbles' since they exhibit some of the similar behavior as underwater air bubbles. These events, instigated by solar and geomagnetic storms, can cause communication and navigation outages that last for hours. To help understand and predict these outages, a world-wide community of space scientists and technologists are devoted to researching this topic. One aspect of this research is to develop instruments capable of measuring the ionospheric plasma bubbles. Figure 1 shows a photo of the Charge Analyzer Responsive to Local Oscillations (CARLO), a new instrument under development at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). It is a frequency-domain ion spectrum analyzer designed to measure the distributions of ionospheric turbulence from 1 Hz to 10 kHz (i.e., spatial scales from a few kilometers down to a few centimeters). This frequency range is important since it focuses on turbulence scales that affect VHF/UHF satellite communications, GPS systems, and over-the-horizon radar systems. CARLO is based on the flight-proven Plasma Local Anomalous Noise Environment (PLANE) instrument, previously flown on a U.S. Air Force low-Earth orbiting satellite, which successfully measured ion turbulence in five frequency decades from 0.1 Hz to 10 kHz (fig 2).

Krause, Linda Habash↗

Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, the feasible distributions are Gaussian mean-fields and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. Since these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work begins by proposing an efficient quasirandom sequence of quadratures for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratic functions and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate polynomials of quadratic total degree. The corresponding variational updates require four loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. Furthermore, this integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

Gaussian mean-field↗

Network-Capable Application Process and Wireless Intelligent Sensors for ISHM

Intelligent sensor technology and systems are increasingly becoming attractive means to serve as frameworks for intelligent rocket test facilities with embedded intelligent sensor elements, distributed data acquisition elements, and onboard data acquisition elements. Networked intelligent processors enable users and systems integrators to automatically configure their measurement automation systems for analog sensors. NASA and leading sensor vendors are working together to apply the IEEE 1451 standard for adding plug-and-play capabilities for wireless analog transducers through the use of a Transducer Electronic Data Sheet (TEDS) in order to simplify sensor setup, use, and maintenance, to automatically obtain calibration data, and to eliminate manual data entry and error. A TEDS contains the critical information needed by an instrument or measurement system to identify, characterize, interface, and properly use the signal from an analog sensor. A TEDS is deployed for a sensor in one of two ways. First, the TEDS can reside in embedded, nonvolatile memory (typically flash memory) within the intelligent processor. Second, a virtual TEDS can exist as a separate file, downloadable from the Internet. This concept of virtual TEDS extends the benefits of the standardized TEDS to legacy sensors and applications where the embedded memory is not available. An HTML-based user interface provides a visual tool to interface with those distributed sensors that a TEDS is associated with, to automate the sensor management process. Implementing and deploying the IEEE 1451.1-based Network-Capable Application Process (NCAP) can achieve support for intelligent process in Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) for the purpose of monitoring, detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, mitigation to maintain operability, and integrated awareness of system health by the operator. It can also support local data collection and storage. This invention enables wide-area sensing and employs numerous globally distributed sensing devices that observe the physical world through the existing sensor network. This innovation enables distributed storage, distributed processing, distributed intelligence, and the availability of DiaK (Data, Information, and Knowledge) to any element as needed. It also enables the simultaneous execution of multiple processes, and represents models that contribute to the determination of the condition and health of each element in the system. The NCAP (intelligent process) can configure data-collection and filtering processes in reaction to sensed data, allowing it to decide when and how to adapt collection and processing with regard to sophisticated analysis of data derived from multiple sensors. The user will be able to view the sensing device network as a single unit that supports a high-level query language. Each query would be able to operate over data collected from across the global sensor network just as a search query encompasses millions of Web pages. The sensor web can preserve ubiquitous information access between the querier and the queried data. Pervasive monitoring of the physical world raises significant data and privacy concerns. This innovation enables different authorities to control portions of the sensing infrastructure, and sensor service authors may wish to compose services across authority boundaries.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial Mapping of Riverbed Grain-Size Distribution Using Machine Learning

Recent alluvial sediments in riverbeds play a significant role in controlling hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) in river systems. The alluvial layer is usually associated with strong heterogeneity in physical properties (e.g., permeability and hydraulic conductivity), which affects local HEFs and therefore biogeochemical processes. The spatial distribution of these physical properties needs to be determined to inform the numerical models used to reveal the realistic hydro-biogeochemical behaviors. Such information can be obtained based on the intrinsic link between sediment grain-size distribution and hydraulic properties where sediment texture information is available. However, grain-size measurements are usually spatially sparse and do not have adequate coverage and resolution, particularly for a relatively large domain such as the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. In this paper, we adopted machine learning (ML) approaches for categorizing and mapping the spatial distributions of riverbed substrate grain size and filling in missing areas of substrate data using the ML models along the reach. Such ML models for substrate size mapping were trained at 13,372 locations using measured substrate sizes along with observed and simulated attributes, including bathymetric attributes (e.g., elevation, slope, and aspect ratio) from LIDAR and bathymetric surveys, and hydrodynamic properties (e.g., water depth, velocity, shear stress, and their statistical moments). An ensemble bagging-based ML technique, Random Forest, was adopted to identify the most influential factors as predictors to develop the predictive models with over-fitting issues addressed. The models were evaluated with respect to each individual substrate size class and the lumped group, and then used to generate the final substrate size maps covering all the grid cells in the numerical modeling domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗