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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Burial-driven methane recycling in marine gas hydrate systems

Natural gas hydrate may be buried with sediments until it is no longer stable at a given pressure and temperature, resulting in conversion of hydrate into free gas. This gas may migrate upward and recycle back into the hydrate stability zone to form hydrate. As of yet, however, no quantitative description of the methane recycling process has been developed using multiphase flow simulations to model burial-driven gas hydrate recycling. In this study, we present a series of 1D multiphase transport simulations to investigate the methane recycling process in detail. By invoking the effects of capillary phenomena on hydrate and gas formation in pores of varying size, we find that a free gas phase can migrate a significant distance above the bulk base of hydrate stability. Since the top of the free gas occurrence is often identified as the base of the hydrate stability zone from seismic data, our results demonstrate that not only could this assumption mischaracterize a hydrate system, but that under recycling conditions the highest hydrate saturations can occur beneath the top of the free gas occurrence. We show that the presence of pore size distributions requires a replacement zone through which hydrate saturations progressively decrease with depth and are replaced with free gas. This replacement zone works to buffer against significant gas buildup that could lead to fracturing of overlying sediments. In conclusion, this work provides a framework for simulating flow and transport of methane within the 3-phase stability zone from a mass conservation perspective.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An exploration of online-simulation-driven portfolio scheduling in Workflow Management Systems

Workflow Management Systems used to automate the execution of scientific workflow applications on parallel and distributed computing platforms must make scheduling decisions at runtime. A large number of workflow scheduling algorithms have been proposed in the literature, but often these algorithms are evaluated based on simplifying assumptions that may not hold in practice. Furthermore, published algorithm evaluation and/or comparison results are necessarily only for a subset of all possible scenarios, and thus may not include scenarios relevant to particular use-cases. Consequently, it is difficult for Workflow Management Systems (WMSs) developers to decide which scheduling algorithm should be implemented. To obviate this difficulty, one possible approach is to implement a portfolio of scheduling algorithms and select the most effective algorithm at runtime. One method for performing this selection is to run an online simulation for each algorithm in the portfolio. The algorithm that leads to the best performance, in simulation, is selected for future use. The above simulation-driven portfolio scheduling (SDPS) approach has been proposed in a few parallel and distributed computing contexts. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the feasibility and potential merit of SDPS if implemented in WMSs. Here we perform this evaluation using simulated WMS executions, where the simulations are instantiated from real-world platform and workflow configurations. Our main finding is that SDPS is on par with or outperforms an approach in which a single algorithm is used, where this algorithm is the one that performs best on average across all our experimental scenarios. Furthermore, we find that SDPS remains an attractive proposition even in the presence of high levels of simulation error and for simulators with relatively low levels of sophistication. In many of our experimental scenarios we find that mitigating simulation error at runtime can further improve performance. Finally, we show that simulation overhead can be made sufficiently low for SDPS to be feasible in practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Water film-driven Mn (oxy)(hydr)oxide nanocoating growth on rhodochrosite

Minerals exposed to moist air stabilize thin water films that drive a score of chemical reactions of great importance to water-unsaturated terrestrial environments. In this study, we identified Mn (oxy)(hydr)oxide nanocoatings formed by the dissolution, oxidation and precipitation of Mn in oxygenated water films grown on rhodochrosite (MnCO 3 ) microparticles. Nanocoatings that could be identified by vibrational spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and (scanning and transmission) electron microscopy formed in water films containing the equivalent of at least 7 monolayers (~84 H 2 O/nm 2 ). These films were formed by exposing microparticles to moist air with at least 50% relative humidity (RH). Films of neutral pH reacted up to 14% of the Mn II located in the topmost ~5 nm region of the microparticles in atmospheres of up to 90% RH for 7 d. These reactions produced MnOOH, birnessite (MnO 2 ) and hausmannite (Mn 3 O 4 ) nanoparticles of low crystallinity, while exposure to atmospheric air for 1 yr. converted only 2% of Mn II in this region to MnOOH. In contrast, reactions in alkaline water films converted up to ~75% of the Mn II but only after 16 d of reaction. These films produced MnOOH and MnO 2 of low crystallinity, as well as crystalline hausmannite. Kinetic modeling of the time-resolved growth of the Mnsingle bondO stretching vibrational bands of these nanocoatings revealed two concurrent reaction processes. A 1 rst -order process was assigned to nucleation events terminating only after a few hours, and a 0-order process was assigned to the sustained growth of nanocoatings from these nuclei over longer reaction time. By identifying nanocoatings formed by water film-driven reactions on rhodochrosite, our study adds new insight into mineralogical transformations relevant to anoxic–oxic boundaries in water-unsaturated environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Efficient data-driven models for prediction and optimization of geothermal power plant operations

Increasing the capacity of geothermal energy as a renewable resource calls for development and deployment of efficient control and optimization technologies for geothermal power plants. A data-driven prediction and optimization model is presented as a cost-effective and efficient alternative to physics-based approach. The model predicts power output and operational cost by propagating the influence of control and disturbance variables within an artificial neural network (ANN). Numerical experiments with simulated and field data from a real geothermal power plant are first used to demonstrate the prediction performance of the ANN model. The model is then adopted to maximize the net predicted power production by automatically adjusting the working fluid circulation rate. The optimization performance of the model in evaluated using a thermodynamic flowsheet simulation model. The workflow is applied to model and control the effect of ambient temperature on an air-cooled binary cycle power plant, which is complex and costly to perform using a physics-based predictive model. As a result, the performance of the method is demonstrated by applying it to both simulated and field datasets from a binary cycle geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Application of laser-driven capacitor-coil to target normal sheath acceleration

A laser-driven accelerator generates protons with tens of MeV in energy by a compact, strong, and transient accelerating electric field produced as a result of laser–plasma interactions at relativistic intensities. In previous studies, two- and three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations revealed that the application of a kT-level axial magnetic field results in an enhancement of proton acceleration via the target normal sheath acceleration mechanism due to reduced lateral electron divergence and improved electron heating efficiency. An experimental investigation of this scheme on the GEKKO-XII and the LFEX facilities found that the number and maximum energy of the accelerated protons decreased with increasing the temporal delay between the pulse driving the external magnetic-field and the pulse accelerating the protons, contrary to the theoretical and numerical expectations. Finally, we identify sources responsible for the degradation of the proton beam performance and we propose an alternative experimental setup to mitigate the degradation in future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optimization of a short-pulse-driven Si He-α soft x-ray backlighter

High backlighter brightness is important to maximize the number of detected photons in radiography experiments and to minimize the background while backlighting high-energy density plasmas with strong self-emission. Here, several different configurations were tested to improve the brightness of the Si He-α x-ray line emission at a photon energy of 1865 eV from high-energy (>1 kJ), short-pulse (~20-ps), laser-driven backlighter targets. The emission from low-density SiO 2 foam targets, the effects of a laser prepulse, and Si targets with a CH “shield” that form a small cavity were compared to solid-density, flat Si targets. The CH “shield” targets showed the best performance with a >5× improvement in time integrated emission and an x-ray pulse duration of ~25 ps with no measurable spectral shift of the Si He-α emission line. A conversion efficiency from laser light into Si He-α photons of the order of 1 × 10 –5 was inferred from the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Data-Driven Modeling of a High Capacity Cryogenic System for Control Optimization

The Cryogenic Moderator System (CMS) is responsible for maintaining a steady flow of cold neutrons for numerous physics experiments at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Sudden losses in beam power, known as beam trips, cause a major disturbance to the CMS due to large step changes in cooling demands. Ongoing efforts on upgrading the neutron beam power from 1.4 to 2.0MW are expected to generate larger transients that can further strain the CMS subsystems if they are not properly controlled. To manage such disturbances, four flow valves and one electric heater are adjusted by five decentralized proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers. However, the original PID gains were calibrated empirically based only on tracking performance and not based on disturbance rejection. To address this issue without compromising current CMS operations, a control-oriented model was developed to recalibrate the PID controllers offline. The zero-dimensional (0-D) model was based on simple physics-based principles and data-driven system identification techniques. The CMS was broken into several subsystems for analysis, each of which corresponds to a parametric model tied to the thermodynamic states of the working fluid. The model parameters were identified using the nonlinear least squares method where the residuals were calculated from available sensor data. Simulation results show that the proposed model can capture the dynamics of the CMS at steady state and during beam trips.

Maldonado Puente, Bryan↗

Decentralized Data-Driven Estimation of Generator Rotor Speed and Inertia Constant Based on Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter

This paper proposes an online decentralized and data-driven method for synchronous generator rotor speed and inertia estimation. First, an analytical relationship between the generator terminal voltage/current phasors and its internal rotor speed is derived using the Thevenin equivalent. The parameters of the latter are obtained via a recursive estimator, which allows us to estimate the generator's internal rotor speed from voltage/current phasors without the need for any generator information. Second, we reformulate the equivalent swing equation into the Kalman filter form, which enables us to use a priori-estimated internal rotor speed along with measured real and reactive power injections to obtain an estimate of the inertia for each online synchronous generator. This is achieved through an adaptive unscented Kalman filter. We demonstrate that the use of terminal bus frequency to approximate the rotor speed for inertia estimation by existing methods leads to large estimation biases/errors. Numerical simulations carried out on the IEEE 39-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems reveal that our proposed method is consistently more accurate than existing methods. Moreover, our proposed method is insensitive to both the type and location of system disturbances, and it is robust to different levels of measurement noise.

bus frequency↗

End-To-End Decentralized Transmission Line Protection in IBR-Dominated Weak Grids Using Interpretable Data-Driven Methods

Traditional transmission line protection relies on predictable synchronous-based fault signatures, which frequently fail under the non-standard, current-limited fault characteristics of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs). This study investigates how to achieve secure, communication-free fault isolation in IBR-dominated weak grids without relying on opaque, computationally heavy "black-box" machine learning algorithms. To address this, we propose a novel, standalone, and inherently interpretable data-driven protection framework. Unlike centralized methods requiring multi-terminal communication, this decentralized approach relies solely on local measurements using a hierarchical linear-kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM). The methodology decomposes the protection task into four sequential stages that mimic traditional protection elements: fault detection and fault direction identification, fault type classification, zone classification, and location estimation. This multi-stage architecture allows for specialized feature engineering at each stage, combining high computational efficiency with logic traceability. The framework's end-to-end performance was validated via C-code and PSCAD/EMTDC co-simulation, utilizing a real-world utility network and an OEM black-box IBR model. The proposed relay achieves 97.2% overall accuracy and provides a reliable trip decision within a 2.5-cycle window. The results confirm 100% accuracy in fundamental fault detection, reliable zone selectivity across low to moderate fault resistances, and robust security against non-fault transients, proving its immediate viability for integration into commercial numerical relays.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measurement-driven, model-based estimation of residual stress and its effects on fatigue crack growth. Part 1: Validation of an eigenstrain model

The objective of this paper is to validate a measurement-driven, model-based approach to estimate residual stress (RS) in samples machined from quenched aluminum stock. Model input is derived from measurement of RS in the parent stock. Validation is performed for prismatic T-sections removed from bars at different locations. We find RS predicted agrees with RS measured, by contour and neutron diffraction methods, with root-mean-square model-measurement difference of 22 MPa. Follow-on work (in Part 2) applies the RS estimation to samples representative of aircraft structures and examines the effects of RS on fatigue crack growth in the RS-bearing samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A data-driven CO 2 leakage detection using seismic data and spatial–temporal densely connected convolutional neural networks

In carbon capture and sequestration (also known as carbon capture and storage, or CCS), developing effective monitoring methods is needed to detect and respond to CO 2 leakage. CO 2 leakage detection methods rely on geophysical observations and monitoring sensor network. However, traditional methods usually require the development of site-specific physical models and expert interpretation, and the effectiveness of these methods can be limited to different application locations, operational scenarios, and conditions. Here, we developed a novel data-driven leakage detection method based on densely connected convolutional neural networks. Our method is an end-to-end detection approach, that differs from conventional leakage monitoring methods by directly learning a mapping relationship between seismic data and the CO 2 leakage mass. To account for the spatial and temporal characteristics of seismic data, our novel networks architecture combines 1D and 2D convolutional neural networks. To overcome the computational expense of solving optimization problems, we apply a densely-connecting strategy in our network architecture that reduces the number of network parameters. Based on the features generated by our convolutional neural networks, we further incorporate a long short-term memory network to utilize time-sequential information, which further improves the detection accuracy. Lastly, we employ our detection method to synthetic seismic datasets generated based on flow simulations of a hypothetical CO 2 storage scenario with injection into a partially compartmentalized sandstone storage reservoir. To evaluate method performance, we conducted multiple experiments including a random leakage test, a sequential test, and a robustness test. Numerical results show that our CO 2 leakage detection method successfully detects the leakage and accurately predicts the leakage mass, suggesting that it has the potential for application in monitoring of real CO 2 storage sites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data-driven offshore CO 2 saline storage assessment methodology

The world produces approximately 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases annually. This is measured in CO 2 -equivalents, and geologic CO 2 storage has the potential to advance decarbonization and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies to assess offshore carbon storage are needed to address resource, regulatory, and commercial needs. Although most efforts to assess storage resources focus on onshore criteria, offshore reservoirs offer significant storage potential and distinct development challenges. Potential advantages of offshore carbon storage include being further from human population centers and less potential to interact with groundwater. The U.S. Department of Energy's method for evaluating storage capacity in non-oil-bearing saline reservoirs has been enhanced to support assessments for offshore environments in the Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage methodology (OCSS). This methodology applies data-driven capabilities to estimate saline storage capacity while accounting for features specific to offshore reservoirs. Features include changes in CO 2 density and sedimentary differences that impact estimates of permanence and capacity. The Offshore CO 2 Saline Storage Calculator mechanizes OCSS to estimate storage capacity. This paper presents the methodology and estimates for 18 geologic domains in the Gulf of Mexico. Potential storage distributions, sensitivity analyses, and the incorporation of spatial data and tools to support safe site selection are also discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data-driven enhancement of coherent structure-based models for predicting instantaneous wall turbulence

Predictions of the spatial representation of instantaneous wall-bounded flows, via coherent structure-based models, are highly sensitive to the geometry of the representative structures employed by them. In this study, we propose a methodology to extract the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the statistically significant eddies from multi-point wall-turbulence datasets, for direct implementation into these models to improve their predictions. The methodology is employed here for reconstructing a 3-D statistical picture of the inertial wall coherent turbulence for all canonical wall-bounded flows, across a decade of friction Reynolds number (Re T ). These structures are responsible for the Re T -dependence of the skin-friction drag and also facilitate the inner-outer interactions, making them key targets of structure-based models. The empirical analysis brings out the geometric self-similarity of the large-scale wall-coherent motions and also suggests the hairpin packet as the representative flow structure for all wall-bounded flows, thereby aligning with the framework on which the attached eddy model (AEM) is based. The same framework is extended here to also model the very-large-scaled motions, with a consideration of their differences in internal versus external flows. Implementation of the empirically-obtained geometric scalings for these large structures into the AEM is shown to enhance the instantaneous flow predictions for all three velocity components. Finally, an active flow control system driven by the same geometric scalings is conceptualized, towards favourably altering the influence of the wall coherent motions on the skin-friction drag.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comprehensive framework for data-driven model form discovery of the closure laws in thermal-hydraulics codes

The two-phase two-fluid model is a basis of many thermal-hydraulics codes used in design, licensing, and safety considerations of nuclear power plants. Thermal-hydraulics codes rely on the closure laws to close the system of conservation equations and describe the interactions between phases. These laws, derived from years of experimental investigations, are semi-empirical correlations that lack generality and have a limited range of applicability. Increase of computational power, availability of new experiments, and development of high-fidelity simulations has increased the number of validation data. The discrepancies between the code predictions and the validation data are a great source of knowledge. Missing physics that are not included in the model but are important for the considered phenomena can be discovered by propagating the information from the experimental results through the model. Furthermore, physics-discovered data-driven model form (P3DM) methodology integrates available integral effect tests and separate effects tests to determine the necessary corrections to the model form of the closure laws. In contrast to existing calibration techniques, the methodology modifies the functional form of the closure laws. Based on the functional form of the correction, the missing physics that were not included in the original model can be discovered. The methodology provides the alternative to the machine learning approach, in which the model is discovered in the form of the intractable black-box relation. In this work, the methodology was applied to the CTF subchannel code to improve the prediction of the two-phase flow phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulation of high temperature thermal energy storage system based on coupled metal hydrides for solar driven steam power plants

Concentrating solar power plants can achieve low cost and efficient renewable electricity production if equipped with adequate thermal energy storage systems. Metal hydride based thermal energy storage systems are appealing candidates due to their demonstrated potential for very high volumetric energy densities, high exergetic efficiencies, and low costs. The feasibility and performance of a thermal energy storage system based on NaMgH 2 F hydride paired with TiCr 1.6 Mn 0.2 is examined, discussing its integration with a solar-driven ultra-supercritical steam power plant. The simulated storage system is based on a laboratory-scale experimental apparatus. It is analyzed using a detailed transport model accounting for the thermochemical hydrogen absorption and desorption reactions, including kinetics expressions adequate for the current metal hydride system. The results show that the proposed metal hydride pair can suitably be integrated with a high temperature steam power plant. The thermal energy storage system achieves output energy densities of 226 kWh/m 3 , 9 times the DOE SunShot target, with moderate temperature and pressure swings. Also, simulations indicate that there is significant scope for performance improvement via heat-transfer enhancement strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

3D optical diagnostics for explosively driven deformation and fragmentation

High-speed, optical imaging diagnostics are presented for three-dimensional (3D) quantification of explosively driven metal fragmentation. At early times after detonation, Digital Image Correlation (DIC) provides non-contact measures of 3D case velocities, strains, and strain rates, while a proposed stereo imaging configuration quantifies in-flight fragment masses and velocities at later times. Experiments are performed using commercially obtained RP-80 detonators from Teledyne RISI, which are shown to create a reproducible fragment field at the benchtop scale. DIC measurements are compared with 3D simulations, which have been ‘leveled’ to match the spatial resolution of DIC. Overall, results demonstrate improved ability to identify predicted quantities-of-interest that fall outside of measurement uncertainty and shot-to-shot variability. Similarly, video measures of fragment trajectories and masses allow rapid experimental repetition and provide correlated fragment size-velocity measurements. Measured and simulated fragment mass distributions are shown to agree within confidence bounds, while some statistically meaningful differences are observed between the measured and predicted conditionally averaged fragment velocities. Together these techniques demonstrate new opportunities to improve future model validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A data driven approach for cross-slip modelling in continuum dislocation dynamics

Cross-slip is a thermally activated process by which screw dislocation changes its glide plane to another slip plane sharing the same Burgers vector. The rate at which this process happens is determined by a Boltzmann type expression that is a function of the screw segment length and the stress acting on the dislocation. In continuum dislocation dynamics (CDD), the information regarding the length of the screw dislocation segment and local stress state on dislocations are lost due to the coarse-grained representation of the density. Here, in this work, a data driven approach to characterize the lost information by analyzing the discrete dislocation configurations is proposed to enable cross-slip modeling in the CDD framework in terms of the coarse-grained dislocation density and stress fields. The analysis showed that the screw segment length follows an exponential distribution, and the stress fluctuations, defined as the difference between the stress on the dislocations and the mean field stress in CDD, follows a Lorentzian distribution. A novel approach for cross slip implementation in CDD employing the screw segment length and stress fluctuation statistics was proposed and rigorously tested by comparing the CDD cross-slip rates with discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) rates. This approach has been applied in conjunction with three cross-slip models used in DDD simulations differing mainly in the functional form of cross slip activation energy. It was found that different cross-slip activation energy formulations yielded different cross-slip rates, yet the effect on mechanical stress-strain response and dislocation density evolution was minimal for the [001] type loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗