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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.

Piland, William M.↗

Mechanical and Chemical Properties of Harvested Hypalon Cable Jacket Subjected to Accelerated Thermal Aging

For nuclear power plants (NPPs) that are considering second license renewal for their operation beyond 60 years, knowledge of long-term operation, condition monitoring, and viability for the reactor components including reactor pressure vessel, concrete structures, and cable systems is essential. Such knowledge will provide NPPs with a game plan to predict performance and to estimate costs that are associated with monitoring or replacement programs for the affected systems. For cable systems that encompass a wide variety of materials, manufacturers, and in-plant location, accelerated aging of harvested cable jacket and insulation can provide insight as to remaining useful life and methods for monitoring. Accelerated thermal aging in air at temperatures between 80°C and 120°C was carried out on a multi-conductor control rod cable that had been in-service for over 30 years and was made by Boston Insulated Wire with Hypalon cable jacket and ethylene-propylene rubber insulation. From elongation at break (EAB) measurements and supporting Arrhenius analysis of the jacket material, an activation energy of 97.84 kJ/mol was estimated and the time to degradation, as represented by 50% EAB at the expected maximum operating temperature of 45°C, was estimated as consistent with 80 years. These values were slightly below previous measurements and could either be attributed to in-service degradation or variations in material properties from a given manufacturer. In addition, results from indenter modulus measurements and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy suggest possible markers that could be beneficial to monitor cable conditions.

cable aging, cable insulation, Hypalon, second lic↗

Data Structures for Extreme Scale Computing

As computing problems of national importance grow, the government meets the increased demand by funding the development of ever larger systems. The overarching goal of the work supported in part by this grant is to increase efficiency of programming and performing computations on these large computing systems. In past work, we have demonstrated that some of these computations once thought to require expensive hardware designs and/or complex, special-purpose programming may be executed efficiently on low-cost commodity cluster computing systems using a general-purpose “latency-tolerant” programming framework. One important developed application of the ideas underlying this framework is graph database technology supporting social network pattern matching used by US intelligence agencies to more quickly identify potential terrorist threats. This database application has been spun out by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a Department of Energy Laboratory, into a commercial start-up, Trovares Inc. We explore an alternative application of the same underlying ideas to a well-studied challenge arising in engineering: solving unstructured sparse linear equations. Solving these equations is key to predicting the behavior of large electronic circuits before they are fabricated. Predicting that behavior ahead of fabrication means that designs can optimized and errors corrected ahead of the expense of manufacture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Launch Systems Operations Cost Model

One of NASA's primary missions is to reduce the cost of access to space while simultaneously increasing safety. A key component, and one of the least understood, is the recurring operations and support cost for reusable launch systems. In order to predict these costs, NASA, under the leadership of the Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), has commissioned the development of a Launch Systems Operations Cost Model (LSOCM). LSOCM is a tool to predict the operations & support (O&S) cost of new and modified reusable (and partially reusable) launch systems. The requirements are to predict the non-recurring cost for the ground infrastructure and the recurring cost of maintaining that infrastructure, performing vehicle logistics, and performing the O&S actions to return the vehicle to flight. In addition, the model must estimate the time required to cycle the vehicle through all of the ground processing activities. The current version of LSOCM is an amalgamation of existing tools, leveraging our understanding of shuttle operations cost with a means of predicting how the maintenance burden will change as the vehicle becomes more aircraft like. The use of the Conceptual Operations Manpower Estimating Tool/Operations Cost Model (COMET/OCM) provides a solid point of departure based on shuttle and expendable launch vehicle (ELV) experience. The incorporation of the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) as expressed by a set of response surface model equations gives a method for estimating how changing launch system characteristics affects cost and cycle time as compared to today's shuttle system. Plans are being made to improve the model. The development team will be spending the next few months devising a structured methodology that will enable verified and validated algorithms to give accurate cost estimates. To assist in this endeavor the LSOCM team is part of an Agency wide effort to combine resources with other cost and operations professionals to support models, databases, and operations assessments.

Prince, Frank A.↗

International Space Station Requirement Verification for Commercial Visiting Vehicles

The COTS program demonstrated NASA could rely on commercial providers for safe, reliable, and cost-effective cargo delivery to ISS. The ISS Program has developed a streamlined process to safely integrate commercial visiting vehicles and ensure requirements are met Levy a minimum requirement set (down from 1000s to 100s) focusing on the ISS interface and safety, reducing the level of NASA oversight/insight and burden on the commercial Partner. Partners provide a detailed verification and validation plan documenting how they will show they've met NASA requirements. NASA conducts process sampling to ensure that the established verification processes is being followed. NASA participates in joint verification events and analysis for requirements that require both parties verify. Verification compliance is approved by NASA and launch readiness certified at mission readiness reviews.

Garguilo, Dan↗

Retirement for Cause as an Alternate Means of Managing Component Lives

In the current budgetary environment, fielded equipment is often used beyond its design life. To avoid the large cost of replacing critical rotating parts as they reach their "safelife" limits, a Retirement For Cause (RFC) program may prove to be a cost-effective, yet safe, alternative. Studies indicate that a full 80 percent of parts replaced at low-cycle fatigue calculated "safe life" limits have at least a full order of magnitude of remaining fatigue life. The Air Force has embraced RFC and currently uses it successfully to manage parts life for several of their gas turbine engines.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗

Status of Rockwell-ERC high efficiency solar cell programs

Programs aimed at developing large area, high efficiency GaAs heteroface cells for low concentration space applications and high concentration terrestrial applications as well as other programs aimed at developing high efficiency multicolor devices for use in similar applications are described. An additional program aimed at achieving improved power to weight ratio by parting thin film solar cells from their growth substrates prior to their incorporation into an array assembly is also described. There is potential for multiple reuse of the substrates which could lead to reduced costs for such devices. Highlights of these programs and their interrelated contributions toward the goals of reducing specific weight, volume and cost of photovoltaic space power systems are discussed. Overall goals are summarized and current programs and their funding sources are listed.

Zehr, S. W.↗

The U.S.-NSF/NASA

The five-year research and development plan of the NSF/NASA Wind Energy Conversion Systems (WECS) program is outlined. The program includes mission studies to determine energy use patterns and requirements and define specific applications for wind energy systems, wind energy resource assessment and development, and development of cost-effective components and subsystems. The program is also directed towards the development of energy storage systems to make wind powered systems firm power sources where appropriate. A 100 kW experimental wind generator (Model Zero) is being designed as a flexible test bed for a variety of system components. Designs will be developed for units in the 50 to 200 kW and 500 to 3000 kW size ranges.

Source record↗

Life cycle cost assessment of future low heat rejection engines

The Adiabatic Diesel Engine Component Development (ADECD) represents a project which has the objective to accelerate the development of highway truck engines with advanced technology aimed at reduced fuel consumption. The project comprises three steps, including the synthesis of a number of engine candidate designs, the coupling of each with a number of systems for utilizing exhaust gas energy, and the evaluation of each combination in terms of desirability. Particular attention is given to the employed evaluation method and the development of this method. The objective of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) evaluation in the ADECD program was to select the best from among 42 different low heat rejection engine (LHRE)/exhaust energy recovery system configurations. The LCC model is discussed along with a maintenance cost model, the evaluation strategy, the selection of parameter ranges, and a full factorial analysis.

Petersen, D. R.↗

Optimal assignment for the single-household shared autonomous vehicle problem

Autonomous vehicles have the potential to transform the way people are transported. While driverless technology may mean fewer vehicles are required to transport people to and from their daily activities, such changes may result in increased congestion or total miles traveled. In this study, we solve the single-household shared autonomous vehicle problem to identify cost-optimal routings of vehicles throughout the day. Such a tool will be useful for consumers seeking to minimize cost and for regulators seeking to understand and predict how people may behave in different scenarios. Here, we provide a thorough literature review and construct a mixed-integer linear program to minimize the daily travel cost of a household attending a given set of activities. Since solution time is a determinant for applicability of such a model, we present the model in a component-wise fashion. This approach allows us to understand which features most affect the problem complexity and solution time. We note that modeling carpooling is the feature that most increases time to find an optimal solution, and we therefore propose a novel modeling technique for carpooling two people. We illustrate the performance of our model by comparing it with other models from the literature and note that our model can solve significantly larger problem instances and in a time that is short enough to facilitate real-time scheduling. We also highlight the utility of our model for regulators, who can use it to analyze quickly produced optimal routes under different cost/tax scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Assessing the costs and benefits of US renewable portfolio standards

Abstract Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) exist in 29 US states and the District of Columbia. This article summarizes the first national-level, integrated assessment of the future costs and benefits of existing RPS policies; the same metrics are evaluated under a second scenario in which widespread expansion of these policies is assumed to occur. Depending on assumptions about renewable energy technology advancement and natural gas prices, existing RPS policies increase electric system costs by as much as $31 billion, on a present-value basis over 2015−2050. The expanded renewable deployment scenario yields incremental costs that range from $23 billion to $194 billion, depending on the assumptions employed. The monetized value of improved air quality and reduced climate damages exceed these costs. Using central assumptions, existing RPS policies yield $97 billion in air-pollution health benefits and $161 billion in climate damage reductions. Under the expanded RPS case, health benefits total $558 billion and climate benefits equal $599 billion. These scenarios also yield benefits in the form of reduced water use. RPS programs are not likely to represent the most cost effective path towards achieving air quality and climate benefits. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that US RPS programs are, on a national basis, cost effective when considering externalities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced tow placement of composite fuselage structure

The Hercules NASA ACT program was established to demonstrate and validate the low cost potential of the automated tow placement process for fabrication of aircraft primary structures. The program is currently being conducted as a cooperative program in collaboration with the Boeing ATCAS Program. The Hercules advanced tow placement process has been in development since 1982 and was developed specifically for composite aircraft structures. The second generation machine, now in operation at Hercules, is a production-ready machine that uses a low cost prepreg tow material form to produce structures with laminate properties equivalent to prepreg tape layup. Current program activities are focused on demonstration of the automated tow placement process for fabrication of subsonic transport aircraft fuselage crown quadrants. We are working with Boeing Commercial Aircraft and Douglas Aircraft during this phase of the program. The Douglas demonstration panels has co-cured skin/stringers, and the Boeing demonstration panel is an intricately bonded part with co-cured skin/stringers and co-bonded frames. Other aircraft structures that were evaluated for the automated tow placement process include engine nacelle components, fuselage pressure bulkheads, and fuselage tail cones. Because of the cylindrical shape of these structures, multiple parts can be fabricated on one two placement tool, thus reducing the cost per pound of the finished part.

Anderson, Robert L.↗

Optimal Gas-Electric Energy System Decarbonization Planning

As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

The growing demand but uncertain supply makes the sustainability of the coffee industry a shared concern for all participants along the coffee supply chain. This study proposed a decision-making model that comprises the cultivation management, including shade management and annual agriculture management, and the supply chain logistics. A two-stage stochastic program is presented and used within a rolling horizon scheme that periodically updates input data information to deal with uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. The program minimizes the total expected cost of the entire supply chain of arabica coffee. The study applied the model to the real case study of arabica coffee bean supply to the U.S. market, trying to answer whether arabica coffee supply can meet the U.S. demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to best mitigate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships. The results show that the coffee supply will have a 3% shortage in the future; medium-level shade management and more irrigation and fertilization are possible mitigation strategies. These results demonstrate the need for all participants to adopt suitable technologies for the sustainability of global coffee supply chains together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dispatch Control with PEV Charging and Renewables for Multiplayer Game Application

This paper presents a demand response model for a hypothetical microgrid that integrates renewable resources and plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging systems. It is assumed that the microgrid has black start capability and that external generation is available for purchase while grid connected to satisfy additional demand. The microgrid is developed such that in addition to renewable, non-dispatchable generation from solar, wind and run of the river hydroelectric resources, local dispatchable generation is available in the form of small hydroelectric and moderately sized gas and coal fired facilities. To accurately model demand, the load model is separated into independent residential, commercial, industrial, and PEV charging systems. These are dispatched and committed based on a mixed integer linear program developed to minimize the cost of generation and load shedding while satisfying constraints associated with line limits, conservation of energy, and ramp rates of the generation units. The model extends a research tool to longer time frames intended for policy setting and educational environments and provides a realistic and intuitive understanding of beneficial and challenging aspects of electrification of vehicles combined with integration of green electricity production.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Introduction to a series of LiNi 0.8 Co 0.2 O 2 -based high-power lithium-ion battery positive electrodes analyzed by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

High-power lithium-ion batteries are rapidly replacing the nickel metal hydride batteries currently used for energy storage in hybrid electric vehicles. Widespread commercialization of these batteries for vehicular applications is, however, limited by calendar-life performance, thermal abuse characteristics, and cost. The Advanced Technology Development Program was established by the U.S. Department of Energy to address these limitations. An important objective of this program was the development and application of diagnostic tools that provide unique ways to investigate the phenomena that limit lithium-ion cell life, performance, and safety characteristics. This report introduces a set of six Surface Science Spectra xray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) comparison records of data collected from positive electrodes (cathode) harvested from cylindrically wound, 18650-type, 1 A h capacity cells. The cathodes included in this study are (1) fresh, (2) following three formation cycles, (3) following calendar-life test for 12 weeks at 40 C, 60% state-of-charge (SOC), (4) following calendar-life test for 8 weeks at 50 C, 60% SOC, (5) following calendar-life test for 8 weeks at 60 C, 60% SOC, and (6) following calendar-life test for 2 weeks at 70 C, 60% SOC.

XPS↗

LiNi 0.8 Co 0.2 O 2 -based high power lithium-ion battery positive electrodes analyzed by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy: 1. Fresh electrode

High-power lithium-ion batteries are rapidly replacing the nickel metal hydride batteries currently used for energy storage in hybrid electric vehicles. Widespread commercialization of these batteries for vehicular applications is, however, limited by calendar-life performance, thermal abuse characteristics, and cost. The Advanced Technology Development Program was established by the U.S. Department of Energy to address these limitations. An important objective of this program was the development and application of diagnostic tools that provide unique ways to investigate the phenomena that limit lithium-ion cell life, performance, and safety characteristics. This report introduces a set of six Surface Science Spectra xray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) comparison records of data collected from positive electrodes (cathode) harvested from cylindrically wound, 18650-type, 1 A h capacity cells. The cathodes included in this study are (1) fresh, (2) following three formation cycles, (3) following calendar-life test for 12 weeks at 40 C, 60% state-of-charge (SOC), (4) following calendar-life test for 8 weeks at 50 C, 60% SOC, (5) following calendar-life test for 8 weeks at 60 C, 60% SOC, and (6) following calendar-life test for 2 weeks at 70 C, 60% SOC.

energy conversion and storage↗

LiNi 0.8 Co 0.2 O 2 -based high power lithium-ion battery positive electrodes analyzed by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy: 2. Following 3 formation cycles

High-power lithium-ion batteries are rapidly replacing the nickel metal hydride batteries currently used for energy storage in hybrid electric vehicles. Widespread commercialization of these batteries for vehicular applications is, however, limited by calendar-life performance, thermal abuse characteristics, and cost. The Advanced Technology Development Program was established by the U.S. Department of Energy to address these limitations. An important objective of this program was the development and application of diagnostic tools that provide unique ways to investigate the phenomena that limit lithium-ion cell life, performance, and safety characteristics. This report introduces a set of six Surface Science Spectra xray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) comparison records of data collected from positive electrodes (cathode) harvested from cylindrically wound, 18650-type, 1 A h capacity cells. The cathodes included in this study are (1) fresh, (2) following three formation cycles, (3) following calendar-life test for 12 weeks at 40 C, 60% state-of-charge (SOC), (4) following calendar-life test for 8 weeks at 50 C, 60% SOC, (5) following calendar-life test for 8 weeks at 60 C, 60% SOC, and (6) following calendar-life test for 2 weeks at 70 C, 60% SOC.

energy conversion and storage↗