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DOE OSTI2022

Methods and systems for evaluating and improving distribution-grid observability

This document describes systems and techniques for evaluating and improving distribution-grid observability. These systems and techniques allow engineers to quantify the observability of a distribution grid, which represents an ability to combine actual measurements and various types of computations (e.g., analytics, estimators, forecasters), from a system model. Distribution engineers can also identify islands of observability where operating parameters, including voltages, currents, and power flows, can be determined from available sensor readings. By exclusion, distribution engineers can similarly identify areas of the distribution grid with observability deficiencies that may require additional instrumentation to maintain proper operation. Distribution engineers, using an iterative or automated process, can determine the observability of the system model with new or relocated sensors to generate a sensor allocation plan. The sensor allocation plan can indicate the number and location of sensors to either maximize observability for a fixed sensor cost or minimize sensor cost for predetermined observability.

Reiman, Anthony P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Methods and systems for evaluating data transportability in distribution grids

This document describes systems and techniques for evaluating and improving distribution-grid data transportability. These systems and techniques allow engineers to quantify the data transportability of a communication system within or connected to a distribution grid, which represents an ability to transport in real-time telemetry from source locations (e.g., sensors in the distribution grid) to control mechanisms. Distribution engineers can use the sensor readings to perform grid analytics, control operating parameters, and operate protection systems. Distribution engineers can also use the transportability of the communication system to evaluate the observability of the distribution grid, which represents an ability to combine actual measurements and various types of computations (e.g., analytics, estimators, forecasters) from a system model. Distribution engineers can then generate a sensor allocation plan that indicates the number and location of sensors to maximize observability for a fixed sensor cost and/or minimize sensor cost for predetermined observability.

Taft, Jeffrey D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Inverse Mapping of the Collision Kernel and Wall Flux Scaling in a Tall Convection‐Cloud Chamber Using Local Sensors and Knowledge‐Informed Deep Learning

Droplet collision–coalescence is a crucial process in cloud physics, but accurately representing this process under different dynamical conditions remains challenging. A proposed future convective‐cloud chamber aims to investigate this key process, but the method for observing it remains unclear, even though it is theoretically established that collision‐coalescence will occur. This study serves as a proof‐of‐concept demonstration of how knowledge‐informed deep learning, combined with measurement data from local sensors in the chamber, can be used to estimate the collision kernels, which determine how the droplet size distribution evolves during collision‐coalescence. In addition to estimating the collision kernel, we also address wall fluxes, another uncertain but important process that acts as a source of heat and moisture in the chamber. Ensemble runs of large‐eddy simulations are conducted by scaling the wall fluxes and the collision kernel, while the measured flow and cloud properties are used as inputs for a neural network. Results indicate that this approach successfully maps the scaling of wall fluxes and the collision kernel with biases of approximately 1% or less relative to the range of the target data. This proof‐of‐concept lays the groundwork for future applications; when the real measurements are available, real sensor data combined with the trained model presented in this work will enable estimation of the actual wall fluxes and collision kernel.

cloud chamber↗

NASA NTRS2018

Bayesian Geostatistical Modelling of PM10 and PM2.5 Surface Level Concentrations in Europe Using High-Resolution Satellite-Derived Products

Air quality monitoring across Europe is mainly based on in situ ground stations which are too sparse to accurately assess the exposure effects of air pollution for the entire continent. The demand for precise predictive modelsthat estimate gridded geophysical parameters of ambient air at high spatial resolution has rapidly grown. Here, we investigate the potential of satellite derived products to improve particulate matter (PM) estimates. Bayesiangeostatistical models addressing confounding between the spatial distribution of pollutants and remotely sensed predictors were developed to estimate yearly averages of both, fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10) surface PM concentrations at 1 sq.km spatial resolution over 46 European countries and were compared to geostatistical, geographically weighted and land-use regression formulations. Rigorous model selection identified the Earth observation data which contribute most to pollutants' estimation. Geostatistical models outperformed the predictive ability of the frequently employed land-use regression. The resulting estimates of PM10 and PM2.5, which represent the main air quality indicators for the urban Sustainable Development Goal, indicate that in 2016, 66.2% of the European population was breathing air above the WHO Air Quality Guidelines thresholds. Our estimates are readily available to policy makers and scientists assessing the effects of long-term exposure to pollution on human and ecosystem health.

Beloconi, Anton↗

NASA NTRS2025

An Efficient GPU-Accelerated Multi-Source Global Fit Pipeline for LISA Data Analysis

The large-scale analysis task of deciphering gravitational wave signals in the LISA data stream will be difficult, requiring a large amount of computational resources and extensive development of computational methods. Its high dimensionality, multiple model types, and complicated noise profile require a global fit to all parameters and input models simultaneously. In this work, we detail our global fit algorithm, called “Erebor,” designed to accomplish this challenging task. It is capable of analysing current state-of-the-art datasets and then growing into the future as more pieces of the pipeline are completed and added. We describe our pipeline strategy, the algorithmic setup, and the results from our analysis of the LDC2A Sangria dataset, which contains Massive Black Hole Binaries, compact Galactic Binaries, and a parameterized noise spectrum whose parameters are unknown to the user. The Erebor algorithm includes three unique and very useful contributions: GPU acceleration for enhanced computational efficiency; ensemble MCMC sampling with multiple MCMC walkers per temperature for better mixing and parallelized sample creation; and special online updates to reversible-jump (or trans-dimensional) sampling distributions to ensure sampler mixing and accurate initial estimates for detectable sources in the data. We recover posterior distributions for all 15 (6) of the injected MBHBs in the LDC2A training (hidden) dataset. We catalog ∼12000 Galactic Binaries (∼8000 as high confidence detections) for both the training and hidden datasets. All of the sources and their posterior distributions are provided in publicly available catalogs.

LISA global fit↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Generic Prior Distributions for Common Cause Failure Alpha Factors and Causal Alpha Factors

This report is a revision of the original report, INL/LTD-17-43723. Distribution of the original report was to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) only, and the report was not made available to the public. The original report was revised as this report for public distribution. This report presents the latest update of generic prior distributions for common cause failure (CCF) alpha factors, as well as the development of new generic prior distributions for CCF causal alpha factors. The history of CCF treatment and parameter estimations is reviewed. The existing process for developing generic prior distributions is reviewed and used to develop new priors for CCF alpha factors and causal alpha factors. For causal alpha factors, different priors are developed for the five different CCF cause groups: Component (GC), Design (GD), Environment (GE), Human (GH), and Other (GO). These generic prior distributions could be used in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models for CCF parameter estimation. The issues and preliminary thoughts regarding prior distribution development are documented. Potential future work is then proposed for improving the process of developing priors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Visual SLAM Using Variance Grid Maps

An algorithm denoted Gamma-SLAM performs further processing, in real time, of preprocessed digitized images acquired by a stereoscopic pair of electronic cameras aboard an off-road robotic ground vehicle to build accurate maps of the terrain and determine the location of the vehicle with respect to the maps. Part of the name of the algorithm reflects the fact that the process of building the maps and determining the location with respect to them is denoted simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). Most prior real-time SLAM algorithms have been limited in applicability to (1) systems equipped with scanning laser range finders as the primary sensors in (2) indoor environments (or relatively simply structured outdoor environments). The few prior vision-based SLAM algorithms have been feature-based and not suitable for real-time applications and, hence, not suitable for autonomous navigation on irregularly structured terrain. The Gamma-SLAM algorithm incorporates two key innovations: Visual odometry (in contradistinction to wheel odometry) is used to estimate the motion of the vehicle. An elevation variance map (in contradistinction to an occupancy or an elevation map) is used to represent the terrain. The Gamma-SLAM algorithm makes use of a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF) from Bayesian estimation theory for maintaining a distribution over poses and maps. The core idea of the RBPF approach is that the SLAM problem can be factored into two parts: (1) finding the distribution over robot trajectories, and (2) finding the map conditioned on any given trajectory. The factorization involves the use of a particle filter in which each particle encodes both a possible trajectory and a map conditioned on that trajectory. The base estimate of the trajectory is derived from visual odometry, and the map conditioned on that trajectory is a Cartesian grid of elevation variances. In comparison with traditional occupancy or elevation grid maps, the grid elevation variance maps are much better for representing the structure of vegetated or rocky terrain.

Howard, Andrew B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantile-Specific Heritability of Inflammatory and Oxidative Stress Biomarkers Linked to Cardiovascular Disease

Purpose: Heritability (h 2 , the proportion of the phenotypic variance attributable to additive genetic effects) is traditionally assumed to be constant throughout the distribution of the phenotype. However, the heritabilities of circulating C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, plasminogen activator inhibitor type-1 (PAI-1), and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) concentrations depend upon whether the phenotype is high or low relative to their distributions (quantile-dependent expressivity), which may account for apparent gene–environment interactions. Whether the heritabilities of other inflammatory biomarkers linked to cardiovascular disease are quantile-dependent remain to be determined. Patients and Methods: Quantile-specific offspring-parent (β OP ) and full-sib regression slopes (β FS ) were estimated by applying quantile regression to the age- and sex-adjusted phenotypes of families surveyed as part of the Framingham Heart Study. Quantile-specific heritabilities were calculated as: h 2 =2β OP /(1+r spouse ) and h 2 ={(1+8r spouse β FS ) 0.5 – 1}/(2r spouse ). Results: Heritability (h 2 ± SE) of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA 2 ) mass concentrations increased from 0.11 ± 0.03 at the 10 th percentile, 0.08 ± 0.03 at the 25 th , 0.12 ± 0.03 at the 50 th , 0.20 ± 0.04 at the 75 th , and 0.26 ± 0.06 at the 90 th percentile, or 0.0023 ± 0.0006 per each one-percent increase in the phenotype distribution (P linear trend = 0.0004). Similarly, h 2 increased 0.0029 ± 0.0011 (P linear trend = 0.01) for sP-selectin, 0.0032 ± 0.0009 (P linear trend = 0.0001) for soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1), and 0.0026 ± 0.0006 for tumor necrosis factor receptor 2 (TNFR2) (P linear trend = 5.0 × 10 -6 ) per each one-percent increase in their distributions when estimated from β OP . Osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 heritability also increased significantly with increasing percentiles of their distributions when estimated from β FS . Lp-PLA 2 activity, CD40 ligand, TNFα, interleukin-18, and myeloperoxidase heritability showed no significant quantile-dependence. Conclusion: The heritabilities of circulating Lp-PLA 2 -mass, sP-selectin, sICAM-1, TNFR2, osteoprotegerin and soluble ST2 concentrations are quantile-dependent, which may contribute to purported genetic modulations of: 1) sP-selectin’s relationships to venous thrombosis, pulmonary hypertension, type 2 diabetes and atorvastatin treatment; 2) sICAM-I’s relationships to brain abscess and atorvastatin treatment; and 3) Lp-PLA 2 ’s relationships to myocardial infarction and preeclampsia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Radiative Impacts of Further Arctic Sea Ice Melt: Using past Observations to Inform Future Climate Impacts

The Arctic region has seen dramatic changes over the past several decades, from polar amplification of global temperature rise to ecosystem changes to the decline of the sea ice. While there has been much speculation as to when the world will see an ice-free Arctic, the radiative impacts of an eventual disappearance of the Arctic sea ice are likely to be significant regardless of the timing. Using CERES radiation and microwave satellite sea ice data, Pistone et al (2014) estimated the radiative forcing due to albedo changes associated with the Arctic sea ice retreat over the 30 years of the satellite data record. In this study, we found that the Arctic Ocean saw a decrease in all-sky albedo of 4% (from 52% to 48%), for an estimated increase in solar heating of 6.4 W/m(exp 2) between 1979 and 2011, or 0.21 W/m(exp 2) when averaged over the globe. This value is substantial--approximately 25% as large as the forcing due to the change in CO2 during the same period. Here we update and expand upon this previous work and use the CERES broadband shortwave observations to explore the radiative impacts of a transition to completely ice-free Arctic Ocean. We estimate the annually-averaged Arctic Ocean planetary albedo under ice-free and cloud-free conditions to be 14% over the region, or approximately 25% lower in absolute terms than the Arctic Ocean cloud-free albedo in 1979. However, the question of all-sky conditions (i.e. including the effects of clouds) introduces a new level of complexity. We explore several cloud scenarios and the resultant impact on albedo. In each of these cases, the estimated forcing is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. We describe the relative contributions of ice loss by month as well as the spatial distributions of the resulting changes in absorbed solar energy. The seasonal timing and location—in addition to magnitude—of the altered solar absorption may have significant implications for atmospheric and ocean dynamics in the Arctic and at lower latitudes; this observationally-based estimate of the large-scale characteristics of an ice-free Arctic thus provides a valuable tool to complement and validate model-based assessments of future climate.

Pistone, K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Advance Technology Satellites in the Commercial Environment. Volume 2: Final Report

A forecast of transponder requirements was obtained. Certain assumptions about system configurations are implicit in this process. The factors included are interpolation of baseline year values to produce yearly figures, estimation of satellite capture, effects of peak-hours and the time-zone staggering of peak hours, circuit requirements for acceptable grade of service capacity of satellite transponders, including various compression methods where applicable, and requirements for spare transponders in orbit. The graphical distribution of traffic requirements was estimated.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity-Based Reactive Power Dispatch of DERs to Support Transmission Grid During Emergency

This paper proposes a TSO-DSO framework including DER set-point dispatch using sensitivity analysis. We address all three steps of TSO-DSO integration stating by estimating the capability curve of an unbalanced distribution system and then modeling of capability curve on the transmission side grid and estimating the reactive power needed from DSO during emergencies, and ending by dispatching the requested reactive power from TSO. The proposed interaction framework is tested on an IEEE 37-node distribution network connected to IEEE 9 bus transmission system. The simulation shows that using sensitivity-based dispatch would reduce the number of communication signals between DERs and DSO and that can decrease the risk of communication contingency.

Alkhonain, Ahmed↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conditional H I Mass Functions and the H I -to-halo Mass Relation in the Local Universe

We present a new H I mass estimator that relates log 10 (M HI /M * ) to a linear combination of four galaxy properties: stellar surface mass density, color index u - r, stellar mass, and concentration index, with the scatter of individual galaxies around the mean H I mass modeled with a Gaussian distribution function. We calibrate the estimator using the xGASS sample, including both H I detection and nondetection, and constrain the model parameters through Bayesian inferences. Tests with mock catalogs demonstrate that our estimator provides unbiased H I masses for optical samples like SDSS. We apply our estimator to the SDSS spectroscopic sample to estimate the H I mass function (HIMF) of local galaxies, as well as the conditional H I mass function in galaxy groups and the H I –halo mass relation. Our HIMF agrees with the ALFALFA measurements at M HI ≳ 5 × 10 9 M ⊙ , but with higher amplitude and a steeper slope at lower masses. We show that this discrepancy is caused primarily by the cosmic variance, which is corrected for the SDSS sample but not for ALFALFA. The total CHIMFs for all halo masses can be described by a single Schechter function, while those of central galaxies show a double-Gaussian profile. The total H I mass in a group increases monotonically with halo mass, but for central galaxies, the H I mass shows weak dependence on halo mass when M h ≳ 10 12 M ⊙ . The observed H I –halo mass relation is not reproduced by current hydrodynamic simulations and semianalytic models of galaxy formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1976

Lossy radial diffusion of relativistic Jovian electrons

The radial diffusion equation with synchrotron losses is solved by the Laplace-transform method for near equatorially mirroring relativistic electrons. The evolution of a power-law distribution function is found, and the characteristics of synchrotron burnoff are stated in terms of explicit parameters for an arbitrary diffusion coefficient of a specific form. The peaking of the 10.4-cm volume emissivity from Jupiter at an L shell of about 1.8 provides an estimate of the diffusion coefficient in the radiation belts; one value is suggested as the appropriate modification, for an equatorial field strength of 4.2 G, of the Birmingham et al. (1974) result. Nonsynchrotron losses are included phenomenologically; from the phase-space densities reported by McIlwain and Fillius (1975), the particle lifetime is estimated. Asymptotic forms for the distribution in the strong synchrotron loss regime are provided.

Barbosa, D. D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A study of atmospheric diffusion from the LANDSAT imagery

LANDSAT multispectral scanner data of the smoke plumes which originated in eastern Cabo Frio, Brazil and crossed over into the Atlantic Ocean, are analyzed to illustrate how high resolution LANDSAT imagery can aid meteorologists in evaluating specific air pollution events. The eleven LANDSAT images selected are for different months and years. The results show that diffusion is governed primarily by water and air temperature differences. With colder water, low level air is very stable and the vertical diffusion is minimal; but water warmer than the air induces vigorous diffusion. The applicability of three empirical methods for determining the horizontal eddy diffusivity coefficient in the Gaussian plume formula was evaluated with the estimated standard deviation of the crosswind distribution of material in the plume from the LANDSAT imagery. The vertical diffusion coefficient in stable conditions is estimated using Weinstock's formulation. These results form a data base for use in the development and validation of meso scale atmospheric diffusion models.

Dejesusparada, N.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Clumping Index Estimation With 30°-tilted Cameras in Row Crops: Evaluation of Methods and Segment Size Effects

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the spatial distribution of foliage elements and is essential for accurately estimating the plant area index (PAI), canopy radiative transfer, and photosynthesis. Traditionally, the finite-length averaging method (LX), the gap size distribution method (CC), and a combined approach of CC and LX (CLX) have been applied to instruments like TRAC and digital hemispherical photography to estimate CI. However, a comprehensive evaluation of these methods in row crops remains limited, especially regarding the influence of segment size on CI. Meanwhile, digital cameras offer a cost-effective and user-friendly solution for canopy measurements in row crops, yet their application in this context remains underexplored. In this study, we employed a new approach using a 30°-tilted digital camera to estimate CI in corn and soybean fields, applying the LX, CC, and CLX methods. We systematically assessed the performance of these three methods by combining field measurements in real-world fields with simulations using the LESS 3D radiative transfer model. Our results showed that CLX applied to the whole image and 45° segment offered accurate estimation of CI (bias within ±0.1, RMSE < 0.2) and PAI (bias within ±0.4, RMSE < 1) in real-world fields and LESS simulations. The accuracy of the LX method was highly sensitive to segment size, with the best performance observed at the 15° segment (PAI bias within ±0.4). In contrast, the CC method remained stable across different segment sizes, and its performance was generally comparable to that of LX, except at the 15° segment. Across view zenith angles, CI derived from CC generally showed a continuous increase, while those from LX and CLX followed a rising trend at small zenith angles but began to decline at 68°, likely due to an increasing proportion of no-gap segments. Seasonally, LX tended to show decreasing CI during early growth stages but increased as the canopy matured, whereas CC and CLX showed gradually increasing CI before plateauing at peak PAI. The 30°-tilted camera effectively captured CI variations across different angles and growth stages, making it a practical and robust instrument for row crop canopy structure analysis. Applying these CI methods to digital cameras offers a low-cost and accessible CI estimation alternative, improving canopy structure monitoring accuracy in row crops.

Modeling↗

NASA NTRS1978

Inviscid, nonadiabatic flow fields over blunt, sonic corner bodies for outer planet entry conditions by a method of integral relations

An investigation has been made into the ability of a method of integral relations to calculate inviscid zero degree angle of attack, radiative heating distributions over blunt, sonic corner bodies for some representative outer planet entry conditions is investigated. Comparisons have been made with a more detailed numerical method, a time asymptotic technique, using the same equilibrium chemistry and radiation transport subroutines. An effort to produce a second order approximation (two-strip) method of integral relations code to aid in this investigation is also described and a modified two-strip routine is presented. Results indicate that the one-strip method of integral relations cannot be used to obtain accurate estimates of the radiative heating distribution because of its inability to resolve thermal gradients near the wall. The two-strip method can sometimes be used to improve these estimates; however, the two-strip method has only a small range of conditions over which it will yield significant improvement over the one-strip method.

Gnoffo, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Estimating Single-Trial Responses in EEG

Accurate characterization of single-trial field potential responses is critical from a number of perspectives. For example, it allows differentiation of an evoked response from ongoing EEG. We previously developed the multiple component Event Related Potential (mcERP) algorithm to improve resolution of the single-trial evoked response. The mcERP model states that multiple components, each specified by a stereotypic waveform varying in latency and amplitude from trial to trial, comprise the evoked response. Application of the mcERP algorithm to simulated data with three independent, synthetic components has shown that the model is capable of separating these components and estimating their variability. Application of the model to single trial, visual evoked potentials recorded simultaneously from all V1 laminae in an awake, fixating macaque yielded local and far-field components. Certain local components estimated by the model were distributed in both granular and supragranular laminae. This suggests a linear coupling between the responses of thalamo-recipient neuronal ensembles and subsequent responses of supragranular neuronal ensembles, as predicted by the feedforward anatomy of V1. Our results indicate that the mcERP algorithm provides a valid estimation of single-trial responses. This will enable analyses that depend on trial-to-trial variations and those that require separation of the evoked response from background EEG rhythms

Shah, A. S.↗