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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,207 records · Page 67
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Phase Identification in Real Distribution Networks with High PV Penetration Using Advanced Metering Infrastructure Data: Preprint

Many distribution network monitoring and control applications - including state estimation, volt/VAR optimization, and network reconfiguration - rely on accurate network models; however, the network models maintained by utilities can become outdated because of restoration activities, network reconfiguration, and missing data. With the widespread deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), abundant measurement data from low-voltage secondary networks are available. The AMI measurement data can be used for phase identification to improve the network models. Although the existing phase identification techniques work well in passive distribution feeders that do not have photovoltaic (PV) generation, they can fail to accurately identify the phases in the presence of PV. This paper proposes a robust phase identification algorithm based on supervised machine learning that accurately identifies the AMI meter phase connectivity in the presence of significant PV generation. The proposed algorithm does not require network topology information or feeder head measurement data. The algorithm is validated using the AMI measurement data collected in the field and the field-validated phase connectivity database on two real distribution feeders from San Diego Gas & Electric Company that have significant PV generation.

advanced metering infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phase Identification in Real Distribution Networks with High PV Penetration Using Advanced Metering Infrastructure Data

Many distribution network monitoring and control applications - including state estimation, Volt/VAr optimization, and network reconfiguration - rely on accurate network models; however, the network models maintained by utilities can become outdated because of restoration activities, network reconfiguration, and missing data. With the widespread deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), abundant measurement data from low-voltage secondary networks are available. The AMI measurement data can be used for phase identification to improve the network models. Although the existing phase identification techniques work well in passive distribution feeders that do not have photovoltaic (PV) generation, they can fail to accurately identify the phases in the presence of PV. This paper proposes a robust phase identification algorithm based on supervised machine learning that accurately identifies the AMI meter phase connectivity in the presence of significant PV generation. The proposed algorithm does not require network topology information or feeder-head measurement data. The algorithm is validated using the AMI measurement data collected in the field and the field-validated phase connectivity database on two real distribution feeders from San Diego Gas & Electric Company that have significant PV generation.

advanced metering infrastructure (AMI)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling error PDF optimization based wavelet neural network modeling of dynamic system and its application in blast furnace ironmaking

In general, the modeling errors of dynamic system model are a set of random variables. The traditional performance index of modeling such as means square error (MSE) and root means square error (RMSE) can not fully express the connotation of modeling errors with stochastic characteristics both in the dimension of time domain and space domain. Therefore, the probability density function (PDF) is introduced to completely describe the modeling errors in both time scales and space scales. Based on it, a novel wavelet neural network (WNN) modeling method is proposed by minimizing the two-dimensional (2D) PDF shaping of modeling errors. First, the modeling error PDF by the tradional WNN is estimated using data-driven kernel density estimation (KDE) technique. Then, the quadratic sum of 2D deviation between the modeling error PDF and the target PDF is utilized as performance index to optimize the WNN model parameters by gradient descent method. Since the WNN has strong nonlinear approximation and adaptive capability, and all the parameters are well optimized by the proposed method, the developed WNN model can make the modeling error PDF track the target PDF, eventually. Simulation example and application in a blast furnace ironmaking process show that the proposed method has a higher modeling precision and better generalization ability compared with the conventional WNN modeling based on MSE criteria. Furthermore, the proposed method has more desirable estimation for modeling error PDF that approximates to a Gaussian distribution whose shape is high and narrow.

Modelling↗
DOE OSTI2023

nautilus : boosting Bayesian importance nested sampling with deep learning

ABSTRACT We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested sampling (NS) or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, importance sampling techniques can use all likelihood evaluations for posterior and evidence estimation. However, for efficient importance sampling, one needs proposal distributions that closely mimic the posterior distributions. We show how to combine INS with deep learning via neural network regression to accomplish this task. We also introduce nautilus, a reference open-source python implementation of this technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation. We compare nautilus against popular NS and MCMC packages, including emcee, dynesty, ultranest, and pocomc, on a variety of challenging synthetic problems and real-world applications in exoplanet detection, galaxy SED fitting and cosmology. In all applications, the sampling efficiency of nautilus is substantially higher than that of all other samplers, often by more than an order of magnitude. Simultaneously, nautilus delivers highly accurate results and needs fewer likelihood evaluations than all other samplers tested. We also show that nautilus has good scaling with the dimensionality of the likelihood and is easily parallelizable to many CPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydropower potential derived from streamflow extremes for Alaska, USA

Alaska is an expansive region known for its abundant natural resources, including thousands of miles of streams and rivers. These rivers represent potential opportunities for future hydropower development that could provide reliable energy supply for local communities. There is limited long-term high temporal resolution streamflow data available for the region, making data-driven estimates of potential hydropower and its variability across the state challenging. This study provides a novel data-driven approach for hydropower capacity estimation across Alaska. We use supervised machine learning to develop a relationship between the daily and peak flow duration curves in order to augment the size of our dataset from 44 sites to 67 sites. We perform a stochastic hydropower estimation across the 67 sites and identify approximately 1000 MW of total potential hydropower capacity distributed across these sites. Our study provides the first step towards more comprehensive hydropower estimation for this critical region, highlighting the need for future work integrating high-resolution spatial data, community needs, and economic constraints in estimates of potential hydropower development in Alaska.

Hydropower↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Real-Time Modeling of Distribution Systems with Data-Driven Grid-Wise Observability (Final Technical Report)

The overall objective of this project is to leverage existing and emerging sensor measurements to develop data-driven observability enhancement algorithms as well as robust state estimation and parameter identification techniques to enable real-time grid-wise monitoring and modeling of loads and distributed energy resources (DERs). The project resulted in a holistic framework with the following key components: 1) data-driven and machine learning-based grid-edge visibility enhancement, 2) robust branch-current-based state estimation (BCSE), and 3) robust real-time steady-state and dynamic-state modeling of loads and DERs. The research outcomes have provided utility companies better network visibility, higher-fidelity load/DER models, and more accurate assessment of DERs’ impacts, thus, facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources. The synergistic collaborative project among Iowa State University (ISU), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Electric Power Research Center (EPRC), SIEMENS Industry, Alliant Energy, Cedar Falls Utilities (CFU), and Maquoketa Valley Electric Cooperative (MVEC) to leverage the team’s extensive expertise and experience in power distribution systems, state estimation, online modeling and identification, and DER integrations. The proposed frameworks have been verified with industry adopted software and attempted integrated with existing tool wherever possible

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

NMR spin diffusion measurements in disordered polymers: Insights and limitations

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spin diffusion measurements have been widely used to estimate domain sizes in a variety of polymer materials. In cases where the domains are well-described as regular, repeating structures (e.g., lamellar, cylindrical channels, monodispersed spherical domains), the domain sizes estimated from NMR spin diffusion experiments agree with the characteristic length scales obtained from small-angle x-ray scattering and microscopy. In our laboratory, recent NMR spin diffusion experiments for hydrated sulfonated Diels Alder poly(phenylene) (SDAPP) polymer membranes have revealed that assuming a simple structural model can often misrepresent or overestimate the domain size in situations where more complex and disordered morphologies exist. Molecular dynamics simulations of the SDAPP membranes predict a complex heterogeneous hydrophilic domain structure that varies with the degree of sulfonation and hydration and is not readily represented by a simple repeating domain structure. This heterogeneous morphology results in NMR-measured domain sizes that disagree with length scales estimated from the ionomer peak in scattering experiments. Here we present numerical NMR spin diffusion simulations that show how structural disorder in the form of domain size distributions or domain clustering can significantly impact the spin diffusion analysis and estimated domain sizes. As a result, simulations of NMR spin diffusion with differing domain size distributions and domain clustering are used to identify the impact of the heterogeneous domain structure and highlight the limitations of using NMR spin diffusion techniques for irregular structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of Machine Learning Approaches to Estimate Aerosol Mixing State Metrics in Atmospheric Models

Aerosol mixing state describes how aerosol compositions are distributed among atmospheric aerosol particles in a population. Oversimplified assumptions of aerosol mixing state in atmospheric modeling can introduce errors in estimations of weather and climate-relevant aerosol microphysical properties. A more comprehensive representation of the aerosol mixing state can be achieved in principle with a Particle-resolved Monte Carlo (PartMC) model but at added computational cost that may be prohibitive for direct invocation in operational numerical weather prediction or multi-year climate simulations. The aim of our research is to explore the machine learning (ML) methodologies for estimating aerosol mixing state metrics, which we define here in three different ways: with respect to (a) hygroscopicity; (b) optical properties; and (c) chemical species abundance. We adopted a data-driven approach, leveraging deep learning and statistical learning techniques, to take advantage of massive PartMC model simulations. First, we performed particle-resolved simulations by PartMC to create a series of scenarios considering a range of global environmental conditions. Each scenario consists of aerosol populations and corresponding mixing state metrics. The gas concentration, aerosol mass concentration, environmental variables and mixing state metrics of each population constitute the datasets for machine learning implementations. We have adopted and evaluated various configurations of machine learning methodologies in this investigation, embracing deep learning, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, and the ensemble approaches. After a rigorous model selection process, we identified an appropriate model to derive estimates of aerosol mixing state metrics. We used the computational and data resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) and the ORNL Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES). The NVIDIA DGX-1 hardware was used for the prototyping of the ML models. Our approach has allowed us to gain a new understanding of how machine learning methodologies can be applied to improve the representation of aerosol mixing state in atmospheric models and benefit the atmospheric research community. Next, we plan to extend our research and methodology to quantify some of the aerosol-related uncertainties in the E3SM Atmospheric Model (EAM) Version 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Characterizing wind gusts in complex terrain

Abstract. Wind gusts are a key driver of aerodynamic loading, especially for tall structures such a bridges and wind turbines. However, gust characteristics in complex terrain are not well understood and common approximations used to describe wind gust behavior may not be appropriate at heights relevant to wind turbines and other structures. Data collected in the Perdigão experiment are analyzed herein to provide a foundation for improved wind gust characterization and process-level understanding of flow intermittency in complex terrain. High-resolution observations from sonic anemometers and vertically pointing Doppler lidars are used to conduct a detailed study of gust characteristics with a specific focus on the parent distributions of nine gust parameters (that describe velocity, time, and length scales), their joint distributions, height variation, and coherence in the vertical and horizontal planes. Best-fit distributional forms for varying gust properties show good agreement with those from previous experiments in moderately complex terrain but generate nonconservative estimates of the gust properties that are of key importance to structural loading. Probability distributions of gust magnitude derived from vertically pointing Doppler lidars exhibit good agreement with estimates from sonic anemometers despite differences arising from volumetric averaging and the terrain complexity. Wind speed coherence functions during gusty periods (which are important to structural wind loading) are similar to less complex sites for small vertical displacements (10 to 40 m), but do not exhibit an exponential form for larger horizontal displacements (800 to 1500 m).

Letson, Frederick (ORCID:0000000192750359)↗
DOE OSTI2017

SIDSIM (Sub-Interval Distribution-function in Simulation) [SWR-17-22]

Time-series simulation is a technique used to estimate the energy delivery of a power generation system with output that changes under changing conditions. Such variable resources include photovoltaic energy systems that experience different levels of sunlight or wind farms with changing wind patterns. As distributed generation from these variable resources continues to flourish, having improved software tools to accurately measure, model, and estimate phenomena of interest to grid integration, in addition to energy output, will be crucial for safeguarding smooth integration and operation of these energy systems. Currently, time-series simulations assume conditions and power output are constant over the duration of a time-step (steady-state assumption). NREL researchers improve the accuracy with a new simulation software called SIDSIM (Sub-Interval Distribution Simulation) that replaces this steady value (solar or wind resource) with a distribution function that has a maximum value, a minimum value, and a shape to the curve within each time-step. The distribution function used for modeling varying values in the SIDSIM software is a novel equation and presents advantageous new benefits over the conventional methods. The first advantage comes in the ability to determine maximum instantaneous power within a time-step. This enables better protection of a system from overcurrent issues and it also allows for better forecasting and reservation of transmission capacity; such capabilities are essential for energy system integration. Second, a distribution function helps to determine the amount of energy loss due to “clipping” in cases where the photovoltaic direct current (DC) system capacity exceeds the inverter capacity, the AC interconnect capacity, or any other limiting component or threshold value. It improves estimates of battery throughput by allowing both charge and discharge of a battery within the duration of a time-step. Third, it provides a more refined estimate of utility-bill impacts by considering the delivered power may be higher than the site load or lower than the regular average power estimates that are made using a quasi-steady-state assumption. SEE ALSO OSTI ID 1,361,018

Walker, Andy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm

This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.

distributed energy resource management system (DER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Parameter Estimation of the k-ω Shear Stress Transport Model for Accurate Simulations of Impinging-Jet Heat Transfer

Given the lack of fusion-relevant component test facilities, current estimates of the thermo-fluid performance of plasma-facing components are based for the most part on numerical simulations. A major source of uncertainty in these simulations is the semiempirical turbulence (closure) models for the Reynolds stresses appearing in the governing Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, which involve a set of constants that depend upon the flow. The objective of this study is to evaluate Bayesian parameter estimation of turbulence closure constants in ANSYS Fluent to model heat transfer in impinging jets. The Bayesian statistical calibration produces a probability distribution for these constants from experimental data; the maximum a posteriori estimates are then taken to be the calibrated constants, or parameters. The turbulence model constants are calibrated using an experimental study of a submerged jet of air impinging on a flat heated surface at Reynolds numbers Re = O(10 4 ) and impingement distance in jet diameters H/d = 2. Numerical predictions using the calibrated model parameters are then compared with those generated using the default constants. Predictions obtained with model parameters calibrated on datasets of two different sizes are compared to evaluate the effect of the number of calibration samples. Lastly, the extrapolative ability of the calibrated model is examined by predictions at a Re beyond the calibration values.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A semi-supervised learning method to produce explainable radioisotope proportion estimates for NaI-based synthetic and measured gamma spectra

Quantifying the radioactive sources present in gamma spectra is an ever-present and growing national security mission and a time-consuming process for human analysts. While machine learning models exist that are trained to estimate radioisotope proportions in gamma spectra, few address the eventual need to provide explanatory outputs beyond the estimation task. In this work, we develop two machine learning models for a NaI detector measurements: one to perform the estimation task, and the other to characterize the first model’s ability to provide reasonable estimates. To ensure the first model exhibits a behavior that can be characterized by the second model, the first model is trained using a custom, semi-supervised loss function which constrains proportion estimates to be explainable in terms of a spectral reconstruction. The second auxiliary model is an out-of-distribution detection function (a type of meta-model) leveraging the proportion estimates of the first model to identify when a spectrum is sufficiently unique from the training domain and thus is out-of-scope for the model. In demonstrating the efficacy of this approach, we encourage the use of meta-models to better explain ML outputs used in radiation detection and increase trust.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of stress distribution due to shearing in non-oriented electrical steel by using synchrotron radiation

The influence of the shearing process on the iron loss of non-oriented electrical steels with grain sizes of 10 μm-150 μm was investigated. The deterioration ratio of iron loss was clearly smaller in sample with small grain sizes. The droop height, reflecting the amount of plastic deformation, displayed a good relationship with the deterioration of iron loss under the effect of the material grain size. To clarify the strain distribution around the sheared edge, the elastic strain in a sheet sample with the thickness of 0.30 mm and grain size of 10 μm was evaluated by using synchrotron radiation. The width of the region of elastic strain due to shearing was two or three times of the material thickness. The results of the plastic strain distribution obtained by the measurements were then used to estimate the iron loss deterioration rate in 5 mm width sheared samples. The estimated loss deteriotation coincided with the actual measured iron loss.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved Convective Ice Microphysics Parameterization in the NCAR CAM Model

Partitioning deep convective cloud condensates into components that sediment and detrain, known to be a challenge for global climate models, is important for cloud vertical distribution and anvil cloud formation. In this study, we address this issue by improving the convective microphysics scheme in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). The improvements include: (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. Results from the default and modified CAM5.3 models were evaluated against observations from the U.S. Department of Energy Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) field campaign. The default model overestimates ice amount, which is largely attributed to the underestimation of convective ice particle sedimentation. By considering cloud ice sedimentation and rimed ice particles and applying a new convective snow terminal velocity parameterization, the vertical distribution of ice amount is much improved in the midtroposphere and upper troposphere when compared to observations. The vertical distribution of ice condensate also agrees well with observational best estimates upon considering snow detrainment. Further, comparison with observed convective updrafts reveals that current bulk model fails to reproduce the observed updraft magnitude and occurrence frequency, suggesting spectral distributions be required to simulate the subgrid updraft heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗