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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Learning to simulate high energy particle collisions from unlabeled data

In many scientific fields which rely on statistical inference, simulations are often used to map from theoretical models to experimental data, allowing scientists to test model predictions against experimental results. Experimental data is often reconstructed from indirect measurements causing the aggregate transformation from theoretical models to experimental data to be poorly-described analytically. Instead, numerical simulations are used at great computational cost. We introduce Optimal-Transport-based Unfolding and Simulation (OTUS), a fast simulator based on unsupervised machine-learning that is capable of predicting experimental data from theoretical models. Without the aid of current simulation information, OTUS trains a probabilistic autoencoder to transform directly between theoretical models and experimental data. Identifying the probabilistic autoencoder’s latent space with the space of theoretical models causes the decoder network to become a fast, predictive simulator with the potential to replace current, computationally-costly simulators. Here, we provide proof-of-principle results on two particle physics examples, Z-boson and top-quark decays, but stress that OTUS can be widely applied to other fields.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays

We present cosmological constraints from eight strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for five lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RX J1131−1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and four from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors’ mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with Ωm constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat Λ cold dark matter (CDM), we find H0 = 71.6+3.9−3.3 km s−1 Mpc−1. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on H0 in flat ΛCDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open ΛCDM, wCDM, w0waCDM, and wϕCDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO H0 inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.Key words: cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations / dark energy / distance scale⋆⋆ Brinson Fellow.⋆⋆⋆ NHFP Einstein Fellow.

Birrer, Simon [SUNY, Stony Brook] (ORCID:000000033↗

Reconstruction of tokamak plasma safety factor profile using deep learning

Abstract The motional Stark effect (MSE) diagnostic has been a standard measurement for the magnetic field line pitch angle in tokamaks that are equipped with neutral beams. However, the MSE data are not always available due to experimental constraints, especially in future devices without neutral beams. Here we develop a deep-learning based model (SGTC-QR) that can reconstruct the safety factor profile without the MSE diagnostic to mimic the traditional equilibrium reconstruction with the MSE constraint. The model demonstrates promising performance, and the sub-millisecond inference time is compatible with the real-time plasma control system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Deprojection of X-ray data in galaxy clusters: confronting simulations with observations

ABSTRACT Numerical simulations with varying realism indicate an emergent principle−multiphase condensation and large cavity power occur when the ratio of the cooling time to the free-fall time (tcool/tff) falls below a threshold value close to 10. Observations indeed show cool-core signatures when this ratio falls below 20–30, but the prevalence of cores with tcool/tff ratio below 10 is rare as compared to simulations. In X-ray observations, we obtain projected spectra from which we have to infer radial gas density and temperature profiles. Using idealized models of X-ray cavities and multiphase gas in the core and 3D hydro jet-ICM simulations, we quantify the biases introduced by deprojection based on the assumption of spherical symmetry in determining tcool/tff. We show that while the used methods are able to recover the tcool/tff ratio for relaxed clusters, they have an uncertainty of a factor of 2−3 in systems containing large cavities (≳ 20 kpc). We also show that the mass estimates from these methods, in the absence of X-ray spectra close to the virial radius, suffer from a degeneracy between the virial mass (M200) and the concentration parameter (c) in the form of M200c2 ≈ constant. Additionally, the lack of soft-X-ray (≲ 0.5 keV) coverage and poor spatial resolution makes us overestimate min(tcool/tff) by a factor of few in clusters with min(tcool/tff) ≲ 5. This bias can largely explain the lack of cool-core clusters with min(tcool/tff) ≲ 5.

Sarkar, Kartick C. (ORCID:0000000277678472)↗

Late-formed haloes prefer to host quiescent central galaxies – I. Observational results

ABSTRACT The star formation and quenching of central galaxies are regulated by the assembly histories of their host haloes. In this work, we use the central stellar mass to halo mass ratio as a proxy of halo formation time, and we devise three different models, from the physical hydrodynamical simulation to the empirical statistical model, to demonstrate its robustness. With this proxy, we inferred the dependence of the central galaxy properties on the formation time of their host haloes using the SDSS main galaxy sample, where central galaxies are identified with the halo-based group finder. We found that central galaxies living in late-formed haloes have higher quiescent fractions and lower spiral fractions than their early-formed counterparts by $\lesssim 8~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ . Finally, we demonstrate that the group finding algorithm has a negligible impact on our results.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Accurate shear estimation with fourth-order moments

ABSTRACT As imaging surveys progress in exploring the large-scale structure of the Universe through the use of weak gravitational lensing, achieving sub-per cent accuracy in estimating shape distortions caused by lensing, or shear, is imperative for precision cosmology. In this paper, we extend the Fourier power function shapelets (FPFS) shear estimator using fourth-order shapelet moments and combine it with the original second-order shear estimator to reduce galaxy shape noise. We calibrate this novel shear estimator analytically to a sub-per cent level-accuracy using the AnaCal framework. This higher order shear estimator is tested with realistic image simulations, and after analytical correction for the detection/selection bias and noise bias, the multiplicative shear bias $|m|$ is below $3\times 10^{-3}$ (99.7 per cent confidence interval) for both isolated and blended galaxies. Once combined with the second-order FPFS shear estimator, the shape noise is reduced by $\sim 35~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for isolated galaxies in simulations with Hyper Suprime-Cam and Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time observational conditions. However, for blended galaxies, the effective number density does not significantly improve with the combination of the two estimators. Based on these results, we recommend exploration of how this framework can further reduce the systematic uncertainties in shear due to point spread function leakage and modelling error, and potentially provide improved precision in shear inference in high-resolution space-based images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Brightest galaxies as halo centre tracers in SDSS DR7

Determining the positions of halo centres in large-scale structure surveys is crucial for many cosmological studies. A common assumption is that halo centres correspond to the location of their brightest member galaxies. In this paper, we study the dynamics of brightest galaxies with respect to other halo members in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7. Specifically, we look at the line-of-sight velocity and spatial offsets between brightest galaxies and their neighbours. We compare those to detailed mock catalogues, constructed from high-resolution, dark-matter-only N-body simulations, in which it is assumed that satellite galaxies trace dark matter subhaloes. This allows us to place constraints on the fraction f(BNC) of haloes in which the brightest galaxy is not the central. Compared to previous studies, we explicitly take into account the unrelaxed state of the host haloes, velocity offsets of halo cores and correlations between f(BNC) and the satellite occupation. We find that f(BNC) strongly decreases with the luminosity of the brightest galaxy and increases with the mass of the host halo. Overall, in the halo mass range 10(13-)10(14.5) h(-1) M-circle dot we find f(BNC) similar to 30 per cent, in good agreement with a previous study by Skibba et al. We discuss the implications of these findings for studies inferring the galaxy-halo connection from satellite kinematics, models of the conditional luminosity function and galaxy formation in general

cosmology: dark matter↗

Method for Assessment of Security-Relevant Settings in Anomaly-Based Intrusion Detection for Industrial Control Systems

Ensuring the integrity of Ethernet-based networks is a challenging and constantly evolving domain. This problem is exacerbated for those operational technology (OT) networks supporting industrial control systems (ICS) since much of that equipment was originally designed to be on a network that was isolated and generally considered free of malefactors. Increasing pressure to bridge these systems with traditional information technology (IT) networks has introduced a bevy of new threats. In response, both academia and industry have responded with security solutions tailored to ICS environments. Deploying these protection systems often involves several configuration choices. While some of these choices are clear (e.g., block/enable protocol X) others are far more subjective (e.g. alert threshold == 3.43). Further complicating the situation, while often similar to IT networks, OT networks have unique challenges and characteristics that make the task of protecting them simultaneously more difficult and straight forward.Extant solutions for quantifying the relative security of intrusion detection systems fail to effectively support the operators of said systems with understanding the impact of various configuration changes. Further, they assume that the attacks are static and not subject to manipulation or alteration in the face of defenses. In this paper, we present a threat-based method for quantifying the relative impact of various security settings for intrusion detection systems (IDSs) within ICS environments. This method provides operational staff with a clear understanding of the relative impact of their settings and assumes that the attacks levied against them are dynamic. The model is described in detail, we apply the model to a synthetic data set, and discuss the inferences that can be made and what types of decisions they could be used to support.

Gillen, Rob↗

Metabolic Feedback Inhibition Influences Metabolite Secretion by the Human Gut Symbiont Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron

ABSTRACT Microbial metabolism and trophic interactions between microbes give rise to complex multispecies communities in microbe-host systems. Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron ( B. theta ) is a human gut symbiont thought to play an important role in maintaining host health. Untargeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics revealed B. theta secretes specific organic acids and amino acids in defined minimal medium. Physiological concentrations of acetate and formate found in the human intestinal tract were shown to cause dose-dependent changes in secretion of metabolites known to play roles in host nutrition and pathogenesis. While secretion fluxes varied, biomass yield was unchanged, suggesting feedback inhibition does not affect metabolic bioenergetics but instead redirects carbon and energy to CO 2 and H 2 . Flux balance analysis modeling showed increased flux through CO 2 -producing reactions under glucose-limiting growth conditions. The metabolic dynamics observed for B. theta , a keystone symbiont organism, underscores the need for metabolic modeling to complement genomic predictions of microbial metabolism to infer mechanisms of microbe-microbe and microbe-host interactions. IMPORTANCE Bacteroides is a highly abundant taxon in the human gut, and Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron ( B. theta ) is a ubiquitous human symbiont that colonizes the host early in development and persists throughout its life span. The phenotypic plasticity of keystone organisms such as B. theta is important to understand in order to predict phenotype(s) and metabolic interactions under changing nutrient conditions such as those that occur in complex gut communities. Our study shows B. theta prioritizes energy conservation and suppresses secretion of “overflow metabolites” such as organic acids and amino acids when concentrations of acetate are high. Secreted metabolites, especially amino acids, can be a source of nutrients or signals for the host or other microbes in the community. Our study suggests that when metabolically stressed by acetate, B. theta stops sharing with its ecological partners.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NN-OpInf

SAND2026-18878O The NN-OpInf tool is a PyTorch-based approach to operator inference that uses composable, structure-preserving neural networks to represent nonlinear operators. Operator inference is a machine learning method for inferring low-dimensional systems from data and polynomial models for system dynamics. However, many systems do not conform to polynomial structures, which NN-OpInf addresses by parameterizing operators with neural networks. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Multiwavelength Characterization of an ACT-selected, Lensed Dusty Star-forming Galaxy at z = 2.64

We present C i(2–1) and multi-transition {sup 12}CO observations of a dusty star-forming galaxy, ACT J2029+0120, which we spectroscopically confirm to lie at z = 2.64. We detect CO(3–2), CO(5–4), CO(7–6), CO(8–7), and C i(2–1) at high significance, tentatively detect HCO{sup +}(4–3), and place strong upper limits on the integrated strength of dense gas tracers (HCN(4–3) and CS(7–6)). Multi-transition CO observations and dense gas tracers can provide valuable constraints on the molecular gas content and excitation conditions in high-redshift galaxies. We therefore use this unique data set to construct a CO spectral line energy distribution (SLED) of the source, which is most consistent with that of a ULIRG/Seyfert or QSO host object in the taxonomy of the Herschel Comprehensive ULIRG Emission Survey. We employ RADEX models to fit the peak of the CO SLED, inferring a temperature of T ∼ 117 K and n{sub H{sub 2}}∼10{sup 5} cm{sup −3}, most consistent with a ULIRG/QSO object and the presence of high-density tracers. We also find that the velocity width of the C i line is potentially larger than seen in all CO transitions for this object, and that the L{sub C i(2−1)}{sup ′}/L{sub CO(3−2)}{sup ′} ratio is also larger than seen in other lensed and unlensed submillimeter galaxies and QSO hosts; if confirmed, this anomaly could be an effect of differential lensing of a shocked molecular outflow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗

Extract useful information from building permits data to profile a city’s building retrofit history

Building retrofit is one of the key strategies for cities to reduce energy use and GHG emissions. The historical information about changes to buildings is crucial to infer the buildings’ current energy system efficiency levels and to identify candidate buildings for retrofit. In general, a building permit is required before the start of any construction activity of a building, such as changing building structure, remodeling, or installing new equipment. Moreover, many large cities provide public datasets of building permits in history. Therefore, the permits are a potentially good resource for mining information on the city’s retrofit history. In this study, we use the permit dataset from the city of San Francisco as a case study. Location and time information from the dataset is also used to depict the retrofit timeline of each building and the whole building stock. The type of work of the permit is inferred from the descriptive text by a machine learning model. At last, the limitations of the current permit dataset and potential improvements on the permit data management are discussed to better utilize the information in the future.

Zhang, Wanni↗

INFERRING GRAVITATIONAL POTENTIALS FROM MASS DENSITIES IN CLUSTER-SIZED HALOS

We use N-body simulations to quantify how the escape velocity in cluster-sized halos maps to the gravitational potential in a ΛCDM universe. Using spherical density-potential pairs and the Poisson equation, we find that the matter density inferred gravitational potential profile predicts the escape velocity profile to within a few percent accuracy for group and cluster-sized halos (10{sup 13}<M{sub 200}<10{sup 15} M {sub ⊙}, with respect to the critical density). The accuracy holds from just outside the core to beyond the virial radius. We show the importance of explicitly incorporating a cosmological constant when inferring the potential from the Poisson equation. We consider three density models and find that the Einasto and Gamma profiles provide a better joint estimate of the density and potential profiles than the Navarro, Frenk, and White profile, which fails to accurately represent the escape velocity. For individual halos, the 1σ scatter between the measured escape velocity and the density-inferred potential profile is small (<5%). Finally, while the sub-halos show 15% biases in their representation of the particle velocity dispersion profile, the sub-halo escape velocity profile matches the dark matter escape velocity profile to high accuracy with no evidence of velocity bias outside 0.4r {sub 200}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗