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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Comparisons of Wilks’ and Monte Carlo Methods in Response to the 10CFR50.46(c) Proposed Rulemaking

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing a new rulemaking on emergency core system/loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) performance analysis. In the proposed rulemaking, designated as 10CFR50.46(c), the US NRC put forward an equivalent cladding oxidation criterion as a function of cladding pre-transient hydrogen content. The proposed rulemaking imposes more restrictive and burnup-dependent cladding embrittlement criteria; consequently nearly all the fuel rods in a reactor core need to be analyzed under LOCA conditions to demonstrate compliance to the safety limits. New analysis methods are required to provide a thorough characterization of the reactor core in order to identify the locations of the limiting rods as well as to quantify the safety margins under LOCA conditions. With the new analysis method presented in this work, the limiting transient case and the limiting rods can be easily identified to quantify the safety margins in response to the proposed new rulemaking. In this work, the best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis capability for large break LOCA with the new cladding embrittlement criteria using the RELAP5-3D code is established and demonstrated with a reduced set of uncertainty parameters. Both the direct Monte Carlo method and the Wilks’ nonparametric statistical method can be used to perform uncertainty quantification. Wilks’ method has become the de-facto industry standard to perform uncertainty quantification in BEPU LOCA analyses. Despite its widespread adoption by the industry, the use of small sample sizes to infer statement of compliance to the existing 10CFR50.46 rule, has been a major cause of unrealized operational margin in today’s BEPU methods. Moreover the debate on the proper interpretation of the Wilks’ theorem in the context of safety analyses is not fully resolved yet, even more than two decades after its introduction in the frame of safety analyses in the nuclear industry. This represents both a regulatory and application risk in rolling out new methods. With the 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking, the deficiencies of the Wilks’ approach are further exacerbated. The direct Monte Carlo approach offers a robust alternative to perform uncertainty quantification within the context of BEPU analyses. In this work, the Monte Carlo method is compared with the Wilks’ method in response to the NRC 10CFR50.46(c) proposed rulemaking.

10CFR50.46(c)↗

Solar Proton Transport Within an ICRU Sphere Surrounded by a Complex Shield: Ray-trace Geometry

A computationally efficient 3DHZETRN code with enhanced neutron and light ion (Z is less than or equal to 2) propagation was recently developed for complex, inhomogeneous shield geometry described by combinatorial objects. Comparisons were made between 3DHZETRN results and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations at locations within the combinatorial geometry, and it was shown that 3DHZETRN agrees with the MC codes to the extent they agree with each other. In the present report, the 3DHZETRN code is extended to enable analysis in ray-trace geometry. This latest extension enables the code to be used within current engineering design practices utilizing fully detailed vehicle and habitat geometries. Through convergence testing, it is shown that fidelity in an actual shield geometry can be maintained in the discrete ray-trace description by systematically increasing the number of discrete rays used. It is also shown that this fidelity is carried into transport procedures and resulting exposure quantities without sacrificing computational efficiency.

Slaba, Tony C.↗

Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components

A multiyear program is performed with the objective to develop generic load models with multiple levels of progressive sophistication to simulate the composite (combined) load spectra that are induced in space propulsion system components, representative of Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), such as transfer ducts, turbine blades, and liquid oxygen (LOX) posts. Progress of the first year's effort includes completion of a sufficient portion of each task -- probabilistic models, code development, validation, and an initial operational code. This code has from its inception an expert system philosophy that could be added to throughout the program and in the future. The initial operational code is only applicable to turbine blade type loadings. The probabilistic model included in the operational code has fitting routines for loads that utilize a modified Discrete Probabilistic Distribution termed RASCAL, a barrier crossing method and a Monte Carlo method. An initial load model was developed by Battelle that is currently used for the slowly varying duty cycle type loading. The intent is to use the model and related codes essentially in the current form for all loads that are based on measured or calculated data that have followed a slowly varying profile.

Newell, J. F.↗

Fusion burn-propagation simulations using the collisional and radiative particle-in-cell code TRIFORCE

The ability to accurately model burn propagation in inertial confinement fusion plasmas is crucial for advancing fusion energy research. This work presents enhancements to the triforce hybrid fluid-kinetic multiphysics code, focusing on its kinetic half, which employs the particle-in-cell (PIC) method with Monte Carlo collisions (MCC). We use a moment-preserving collision model that mitigates numerical noise, particularly in spherical geometries where particle weights vary significantly. Additionally, we refine the treatment of inverse bremsstrahlung to account for electron–ion collision frequency reductions in degenerate plasmas and incorporate a blackbody radiation source to enable realistic photon injection. These improvements enable the simulation of 1-dimensional (1D) spherical fusion burn propagation in deuterium–tritium plasmas. Benchmark comparisons with the hydra radiation-hydrodynamics code confirm that triforce accurately captures the dynamics of hot-spot expansion and burn propagation, demonstrating sensitivity to ignition thresholds consistent with theoretical models. Findings show the ignition cliff to be less steep in our work compared to radiation-hydrodynamic modeling. These results highlight the role of kinetic effects in fusion ignition physics and underscore the necessity of hybrid fluid-kinetic models for advancing predictive capabilities in high-energy-density plasma systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Logical error rates for the surface code under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions

With fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) on the horizon, it is critical to understand sources of logical errors in plausible hardware implementations of quantum error-correcting codes. Detailed error modeling of computational instructions on particular FTQC architectures will enable the better prediction of error propagation in FT-encoded quantum circuits while revealing where greater attention is needed in hardware design. In this work, we consider logical error rates for the surface code implemented on a hypothetical grid-based trapped-ion quantum charge-coupled device architecture. Specifically, we construct logical channels for the idling surface code and examine its diamond error under a mixed coherent and stochastic circuit-level noise model inspired by trapped ions. We include the coherent dephasing noise that is known to accumulate during physical qubit idling and transport in these systems, determining idling and transport durations using the time-resolved output of an open-source trapped-ion surface code compiler. To estimate expectation values of logical Pauli observables following hardware circuits containing non-Clifford sources of noise, we utilize a Monte Carlo technique to sample from an underlying quasiprobability distribution of Clifford circuits that we independently simulate in a phase-sensitive fashion. We verify error suppression up to code distance 𝑑 = 11 at coherent dephasing rates near and below those of current-generation trapped-ion quantum computers and find that logical error rates align with those of analogous fully stochastic simulations in this regime. Exploring higher dephasing rates at 𝑑 = 3−5, we find evidence for growing coherent rotations about all three logical Pauli axes, increased diagonal logical error process matrix elements relative to those of stochastic simulations, and a reduced dephasing rate threshold. Overall, our work paves a way toward realistic hardware emulation of small fault-tolerant quantum processes, e.g., members of an FTQC instruction set.

Quantum benchmarking↗

A nodal transport method for coupled fast-thermal reactor analysis

We report that for efficient core analyses of coupled fast-thermal reactors, a new deterministic method has been developed based on the variational nodal transport method of VARIANT. A new multigroup cross section generation procedure was devised by combining Monte Carlo lattice calculations for thermal assemblies and the two-step procedure of the MC 2 -3 code for fast assemblies. To reduce assembly homogenization errors in nodal transport calculations, a new nodal equivalence method was developed based on the partial current discontinuity factor (PCDF) and incorporated in VARIANT. A practical procedure to calculate PCDFs with fixed source supercell calculations was also devised. The performance of the proposed method was investigated using a test problem derived from the versatile coupled test reactor (VCTR) design. The new procedure produced multigroup cross sections accurately for all assemblies. VARIANT transport calculations with PCDFs produced accurate multiplication factor and power distribution compared to reference Serpent-2 Monte Carlo solutions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Equation of State Optimization and Uncertainty Quantization: Implementation in the LANL EOS Production Code OpenSesame

We detail the approaches of particle swarm optimization and Bayesian inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo for equation of state development. This work includes formulation of the modeling for the equation of state, numeric optimization of the parametric models via particle swarm optimization, and generation of probability distributions of equations of state from Markov chain Monte Carlo.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript modeling microbial regulation of priming effects

This data package is associated with the publication “Modeling Microbial Regulatory Feedback in Organic Matter Decomposition Identifies Copiotrophic Traits as Key Drivers of Positive Priming” published as a preprint on BioRXiv by Ahamed et al. (2026); https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.08.11.607483. The package contains MATLAB scripts and saved simulation outputs used to implement a cybernetic model of microbial regulation during complex organic matter (OM) decomposition governing priming effects. It includes models of (i) single microbial functional groups (copiotrophic or oligotrophic degraders) and (ii) binary consortia composed of degraders and non-degraders with contrasting or common growth traits. Simulation results were generated using Monte Carlo analyses, with randomized key model parameters across a range of environmental mixing fractions of complex and labile OM. The dataset was created to provide a transparent and reusable computational framework for systematically exploring how microbial growth traits, metabolic regulation, and community composition influence OM decomposition dynamics and priming effects. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes the variable definitions. This package includes: (1) annotated MATLAB code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws; (2) saved output files containing data (e.g., biomass, substrates, enzyme levels, priming metrics); and (3) scripts for processing saved outputs and regenerating figures. Specifically, the data package contains three main MATLAB scripts: runPrimingModel.m, runPlotData.m, and runPlotSuppFigS1.m, along with this readme and supporting documentation. Users should begin with runPrimingModel.m, which contains the annotated code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws. This script runs the Monte Carlo simulations of microbial OM decomposition and allows users to modify microbial trait definitions, adjust parameter distributions, or define new community configurations. Simulation outputs are automatically saved as .mat files in the folder named SavedData, which stores all pre-generated results included in this package. The second script, runPlotData.m, reads files from the SavedData folder and processes them to regenerate the figures presented in the manuscript. The third script, runPlotSuppFigS1.m, specifically generates Figure S1 in the Supplementary Material of the manuscript. The package also includes the aforementioned files in non-proprietary .txt format. If users intend to use them, they should first save the files in their respective .m or .mat formats prior to execution in MATLAB.

Biomass concentration↗

Eucalyptus – An Analysis Suite for Fault Trees with Uncertainty Quantification

Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.

Fault Tree Analysis↗

QMCPACK : an open source ab initio quantum Monte Carlo package for the electronic structure of atoms, molecules and solids

QMCPACK is an open source quantum Monte Carlo package for ab-initio electronic structure calculations. It supports calculations of metallic and insulating solids, molecules, atoms, and some model Hamiltonians. Implemented real space quantum Monte Carlo algorithms include variational, diffusion, and reptation Monte Carlo. QMCPACK uses Slater-Jastrow type trial wave functions in conjunction with a sophisticated optimizer capable of optimizing tens of thousands of parameters. The orbital space auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo method is also implemented, enabling cross validation between different highly accurate methods. The code is specifically optimized for calculations with large numbers of electrons on the latest high performance computing architectures, including multicore central processing unit (CPU) and graphical processing unit (GPU) systems. We detail the program’s capabilities, outline its structure, and give examples of its use in current research calculations. The package is available at http://www.qmcpack.org.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A spectrometer for ultrashort gamma-ray pulses with photon energies greater than 10 MeV

Herein we present a design for a pixelated scintillator based gamma-ray spectrometer for non-linear inverse Compton scattering experiments. By colliding a laser wakefield accelerated electron beam with a tightly focused, intense laser pulse, gamma-ray photons up to 100 MeV energies and with few femtosecond duration may be produced. To measure the energy spectrum and angular distribution, a 33 × 47 array of cesium-iodide crystals was oriented such that the 47 crystal length axis was parallel to the gamma-ray beam and the 33 crystal length axis was oriented in the vertical direction. Using an iterative deconvolution method similar to the YOGI code, modeling of the scintillator response using GEANT4 and fitting to a quantum Monte Carlo calculated photon spectrum, we are able to extract the gamma ray spectra generated by the inverse Compton interaction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Charged Particle Transport in LUMOS

Charged particle physics, implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) radiation transport, and Sn radiation transport were recently added to the code LUMOS developed by the Lagrangian Applications Project at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This advancement is part of an effort to increase LUMOS’s applicability across a wide variety of problems of interest to the Laboratory including application to inertial confinement fusion (ICF). ICF implosion physics is of interest to the Lagrangian Applications Project because 1) ICF fusion research is a critical mission driver at the laboratory and 2) ICF fusion is a key research area for students and new staff members during the on-boarding process.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dose Rate Analysis of the WCS Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

This report describes a confirmatory calculation for a proposed consolidated interim storage facility (CISF) to support the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s review of the license application submitted by the Interim Storage Partners. The scope of this report is limited to an assessment of the annual dose from direct radiation associated with Phase 1 of the Waste Control Specialists (WCS) CISF and the determination of the minimum controlled area boundary based on the 10 CFR 72.104 limit of 25 mrem annual dose to the whole body. The confirmatory dose rate calculations used the source term and shielding calculation capabilities of the SCALE 6.2.3 computer code system. The calculation method employed in the confirmatory calculations uses a detailed Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation from source to dose rate. This method differs from the two-step method used in the safety analysis report (SAR), which requires determination of the photon and neutron energy and angular distributions on the cask external surface and then the use of this surface source in a new radiation transport calculation to determine dose rate as a function of distance from the storage facility. A simulation was made using the complete site geometry (all casks present) but with only one cask containing source, and a total of 467 independent calculations were performed to obtain the dose rate maps produced by each storage cask. Basic input data and assumptions used in the SAR (e.g., cask design parameters and design basis assembly characteristics) were used in this confirmatory calculation for consistency with the SAR. Local atmospheric conditions for skyshine calculations were simulated using US standard atmosphere data, which describe average air temperature, pressure, and density as a function of altitude. The determined minimum required distances from the WCS Phase 1 CISF to a contour defined by the 25 mrem annual dose limit were approximately 623 m (0.387 miles) in the N-NE direction, 594 m (0.369 miles) in the SSW direction, and 533 m (0.331 miles) in the E-SE direction and the W-NW direction. The annual dose results of the confirmatory calculation are in relatively good agreement with the annual dose values presented in the WCS SAR. The annual dose produced by the Phase 1 CISF at the nearest site boundary, 0.75 miles away from the CISF, was estimated by this study to be approximately 6.02E-02 ± 2.0E-04 mrem, which is significantly smaller than the 25 mrem annual dose limit provided in 10 CFR 72.104. The SAR annual dose rate value for the nearest site boundary was 7.52E-2 mrem, which included 7.73E-03 mrem due to postulated leakage of the FO-, FC-, and FF-canisters. A comparison with the dose rate values reported in the SAR for 16 detector locations, D1 through D16, on the protected area boundary is also included in this report. This comparison shows that the SAR determined higher annual dose values for detectors D1 through D14 by 12% to 45% and lower annual dose values for detectors D15 and D16 by 18% and 8%, respectively, as compared with this ORNL confirmatory calculation. Sensitivity studies have been performed to support a comprehensive review of the application. In these studies, the effects on dose rate of the modeled air volume, density, and humidity were analyzed. The sensitivity calculations showed that the air volume used in the Monte Carlo simulations was adequate and that a larger air volume would not further increase the dose rate due to skyshine contributions. The sensitivity analysis showed that simulation of local atmospheric conditions is important for the accuracy of dose rate estimates at large distances from the facility. Air humidity was demonstrated to have negligible effects on dose rate values for the simulated local atmospheric conditions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Modeling Induction Stirring and Particle Tracking in Molten Uranium

Two independent numerical models have been developed to simulate the behavior of carbon impurities in molten uranium metal. Informed by experimental parameters, one model was created using the commercial software Star-CCM+ and compared with another developed using open-source codes, including OpenFOAM, Finite Element Method Magnetics (FEMM) and a First Passage Kinetic Monte Carlo (FPKMC) approach. The target experimental system features a 404g uranium metal charge containing an average carbon concentration of 139 ppm which was melted in a vacuum induction furnace at 1400° C then resolidified. The microstructures of the uranium and its impurities before and after melting have been characterized and reported separately. Prior to simulating the uranium-carbon system described, the numerical models were validated using a previously published nonradioactive experimental system to ensure agreement with expected output values. Focus has been placed on modeling velocity fields under induction stirring and impurity particle trajectories.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An integrated radiation physics computer code system.

An integrated computer code system for the semi-automatic and rapid analysis of experimental and analytic problems in gamma photon and fast neutron radiation physics is presented. Such problems as the design of optimum radiation shields and radioisotope power source configurations may be studied. The system codes allow for the unfolding of complex neutron and gamma photon experimental spectra. Monte Carlo and analytic techniques are used for the theoretical prediction of radiation transport. The system includes a multichannel pulse-height analyzer scintillation and semiconductor spectrometer coupled to an on-line digital computer with appropriate peripheral equipment. The system is geometry generalized as well as self-contained with respect to material nuclear cross sections and the determination of the spectrometer response functions. Input data may be either analytic or experimental.

Steyn, J. J.↗

Recent advances in PDF modeling of turbulent reacting flows

This viewgraph presentation concludes that a Monte Carlo probability density function (PDF) solution successfully couples with an existing finite volume code; PDF solution method applied to turbulent reacting flows shows good agreement with data; and PDF methods must be run on parallel machines for practical use.

Leonard, Andrew D.↗

Modeling Charge Collection in Detector Arrays

A detector array charge collection model has been developed for use as an engineering tool to aid in the design of optical sensor missions for operation in the space radiation environment. This model is an enhancement of the prototype array charge collection model that was developed for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) program. The primary enhancements were accounting for drift-assisted diffusion by Monte Carlo modeling techniques and implementing the modeling approaches in a windows-based code. The modeling is concerned with integrated charge collection within discrete pixels in the focal plane array (FPA), with high fidelity spatial resolution. It is applicable to all detector geometries including monolithc charge coupled devices (CCDs), Active Pixel Sensors (APS) and hybrid FPA geometries based on a detector array bump-bonded to a readout integrated circuit (ROIC).

Hardage, Donna↗