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DOE OSTI2018

Periodic Material-Based Seismic Base Isolators for Small Modular Reactors

Important structures such as nuclear power plants should experience very little vibrations in order to maintain the safety of the nuclear facilities during seismic events. Protection of these structures by seismic isolators requires the isolators to provide seismic isolation irrespective of the direction of excitations and to develop a stable response without rocking. Conventional seismic isolation systems, however, can only fulfill partial requirements for the seismic protection. This study adopts the principle of periodic materials for seismic isolation. These materials exhibit unique properties of frequency band gaps, where incoming waves with frequencies falling inside the frequency band gaps are forbidden. The new isolation systems, known as periodic foundations, function both as a structural foundation to support the gravitational weight of the superstructure and also as a seismic isolator. The isolation mechanism, hypothetically, can easily fulfill all the requirements for seismic protection of the critical facilities. This study focuses on the design of one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) periodic foundations for seismic isolation of small modular reactor (SMR) buildings. The theoretical study was first conducted to reveal the fundamental behavior of periodic foundations. Then global sensitivity analysis was utilized to study the effect of design parameters on the frequency band gaps. In addition, simple straight-forward design equations based on the sensitivity analysis are proposed for the design of periodic foundations. Utilizing the proposed equations, prototypes of 1D and 3D periodic foundations were designed to isolate an SMR building. Scaled models were fabricated and experimentally tested to validate the hypothesis and design. The periodic foundation structural systems were tested under various input waves, including seismic waves, in the horizontal and vertical directions and the torsional mode. The shake table test results show that the periodic foundations can reduce the acceleration response of the SMR building up to 90% in the horizontal direction and the torsional mode. As much as a 40% response reduction in the vertical direction is also observed. Moreover, the periodic foundation-isolated structure exhibited stable response with negligible rocking on the structure. This study proved the capability of periodic foundations to enhance the seismic safety of critical structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

IAEA Coordinated Research Project on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The predictive capability of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations for reactor design and safety analysis can be assessed with sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty analysis (UA) methods. Uncertainty originates from errors in physical data, manufacturing uncertainties, modelling and computational algorithms. (The interested reader is referred to the large body of published SA and UA literature for a more complete overview of the various types of uncertainties, methodologies and results obtained). SA is helpful for ranking the various sources of uncertainty and error in the results of core analyses. SA and UA are required to address cost, safety, and licensing needs and should be applied to all aspects of reactor multi-physics simulation. SA and UA can guide experimental, modelling, and algorithm research and development. Current SA and UA rely either on derivative-based methods such as stochastic sampling methods or on generalized perturbation theory to obtain sensitivity coefficients. Neither approach addresses all needs. In order to benefit from recent advances in modelling and simulation and the availability of new covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) extensive sensitivity and uncertainty studies are needed for quantification of the impact of different sources of uncertainties on the design and safety parameters of HTGRs. Only a parallel effort in advanced simulation and in nuclear data improvement will be able to provide designers with more robust and well validated calculation tools to meet design target accuracies. In February 2009, the Technical Working Group on Gas-Cooled Reactors (TWG-GCR) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recommended that the proposed Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) be implemented. This CRP is a continuation of the previous IAEA and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) international activities on Verification and Validation (V&V) of available analytical capabilities for HTGR simulation for design and safety evaluations. Within the framework of these activities different numerical and experimental benchmark problems were performed and insight was gained about specific physics phenomena and the adequacy of analysis methods.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Toward reducing uncertainty quantification costs in DEM models of particulate flow: Testing simple, sensitivity-based, forward uncertainty propagation techniques

The performance of two conceptually-simple uncertainty quantification techniques are tested against the rigorous nested-loop sampling technique of Roy and Oberkampf (Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng, 200: 2131–2144, 2011) (herein called full-sampling) using two very small-scale DEM-based models of particulate flow (one gas-solid flow and one granular flow). The first simplified forward uncertainty propagation technique, reduced-sampling, uses a sensitivity analysis to eliminate uncertain inputs that have little impact on the model output prior to nested-loop sampling. The second technique, boundary-sampling, uses a sensitivity analysis to inform the selection of two bounding cases for each key model output. In conclusion, the uncertainties in the model outputs obtained via the reduced- and boundary-sampling methods agree well with those from full-sampling for both the gas-solid and granular flow models while yielding computational savings of 65–75% (reduced sampling) and 94–97% (boundary sampling).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Perturbation-Based Diagnosis of False Data Injection Attack Using Distributed Energy Resources

Modern smart grid relies on various sensor measurements for its operational control. In a successful false data injection attack, the attacker manipulates the measurements from the grid sensors such that undetected errors are introduced into the estimates of the system parameters leading to catastrophic situations. This paper proposes a novel perturbation based false data injection attack detection mechanism that utilizes inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) to create low magnitude perturbation signal in the distribution system voltage that is inconsequential to the normal grid operation. Two voltage sensitivity analysis based algorithms are designed to identify the optimal set of DERs that can create the voltage perturbation signal of desired magnitude. An analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis is used to compute the magnitude of voltage perturbation signal at each node in a computationally efficient manner. Then, a detection mechanism is developed that checks for the presence of the perturbation sequence in each sensor measurement. A sensor measurement is deemed authentic if the voltage perturbation signal is present in the data. In case of sensor malfunction or cyber-attack, the perturbation signal will not be present in the measurement data. Performance of the proposed attack detection mechanism is validated via simulation of the IEEE 69 bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2005

Strategies and Approaches to TPS Design

Thermal protection systems (TPS) insulate planetary probes and Earth re-entry vehicles from the aerothermal heating experienced during hypersonic deceleration to the planet s surface. The systems are typically designed with some additional capability to compensate for both variations in the TPS material and for uncertainties in the heating environment. This additional capability, or robustness, also provides a surge capability for operating under abnormal severe conditions for a short period of time, and for unexpected events, such as meteoroid impact damage, that would detract from the nominal performance. Strategies and approaches to developing robust designs must also minimize mass because an extra kilogram of TPS displaces one kilogram of payload. Because aircraft structures must be optimized for minimum mass, reliability-based design approaches for mechanical components exist that minimize mass. Adapting these existing approaches to TPS component design takes advantage of the extensive work, knowledge, and experience from nearly fifty years of reliability-based design of mechanical components. A Non-Dimensional Load Interference (NDLI) method for calculating the thermal reliability of TPS components is presented in this lecture and applied to several examples. A sensitivity analysis from an existing numerical simulation of a carbon phenolic TPS provides insight into the effects of the various design parameters, and is used to demonstrate how sensitivity analysis may be used with NDLI to develop reliability-based designs of TPS components.

Paul Kolodziej↗

NASA NTRS1990

Innovative design of composite structures: The use of curvilinear fiber format to improve buckling resistance of composite plates with central circular holes

The gains in buckling performance are explored that can be achieved by deviating from the conventional straightline fiber format and considering the situation whereby the fiber orientation in a layer, or a group of layers, can vary from point to point. The particular situation studied is a simply supported square plate with a centrally located hole loaded in compression. By using both a sensitivity analysis and a gradient-search technique, fiber orientation in a number of regions of the plate are selected so as to increase the buckling load relative to baseline straightline designs. The sensitivity analysis is used to determine which regions of the plate have the most influence on buckling load, and the gradient search is used to find the design that is believed to represent the absolute maximum buckling load for the conditions prescribed. Convergence studies and sensitivity of the final design are discussed. By examining the stress resultant contours, it is shown how the curvilinear fibers move the load away from the unsupported hole region of the plate to the supported edges, thus increasing the buckling capacity. The tensile capacity of the improved buckling design is investigated, and it is shown that both tensile capacity and buckling capacity can be improved with the curvilinear fiber concept.

Hyer, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The use of curvilinear fiber format to improve buckling resistance of composite plates with central circular holes

Hyer, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Mars lander deorbit trajectory analysis

Mars lander deorbit trajectory sensitivity analysis for fixed flight path and communications angles at atmospheric entry, comparing with Monte Carlo simulation

Euler, E. A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spring 2020 Dissertation Update [Slides]

An update is provided on the dissertation underway and what has been learned thus far. Work thus far: Developed analytic models for each region in the spent fuel cask – Used to identify and explain physical processes which create features in detailed casks; Developed simplified computational models to identify details not seen in analytic models; SC were calculated in the fuel region; The difference in SC’s between the analytic model and the simplified computational model were identified. Outstanding issues: Analysis of analytic models in stainless steel and carbon steel – These materials are thin and have few features (just the slope); Discrepancies between absorption SC’s in fuel; Create a test problem to show the effects of the high energy resonances in the fuel region. Future Work: Sensitivity analysis needs to be continued through the cask – The detailed model will be added to the remaining materials; Sensitivity analysis paper; and, Addressing outstanding issues.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

My Virtual Cancer

Since each cancer has its own unique characteristics, each one can respond differently to the same treatments. Therefore, the creation of a digital twin (DT) of cancer can assist us in predicting the evolution of an individual's cancer through modeling each tumor's characteristics and response to treatment. Hence, we propose to take advantage of new advances in computational approaches and combine mechanistic, machine learning, and stochastic modeling approaches to create “My Virtual Cancer", a DT platform. To establish a personalized DT, we use patient-specific data for parameter estimations, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. For each patient, we will estimate the values of parameters of their QSP model using the patient's data. We perform a multi-dimensional sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification on the mechanistic model to find a set of critical interactions and predict the intervals of confidence. Since this QSP model includes the data-driven mechanistic model of cells and molecules' interaction networks, one of the ultimate results of this DT would be the prediction of evolution of tumors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling and Verification of a Submersible Pump-Turbine Runner: Preprint

An innovative reversible pump-turbine runner with a 180-degree flow direction reversal has been designed and optimized using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling. The reversible pump-turbine configuration provides a cost-effective means of achieving adequate submergence below tailwater, thereby permitting higher-speed turbine and generator operation and reduced equipment size. Results from CFD modeling and analysis of the hydraulics and runner design are presented. The benchmarks for these parameters are the performance parameters of conventional pump-turbines with scroll-case turbine inlets. The model efficiencies were independently verified, and a sensitivity analysis of the results is presented. The results do not reveal a region of pump instability that is characteristic of pumps and pump-turbines with scroll cases. CFD modeling and analysis of the hydraulics and runner design are presented. The benchmarks for these parameters are the performance parameters of conventional pump-turbines with scroll-case turbine inlets. The model efficiencies were independently verified, and a sensitivity analysis of the results is presented. The results do not reveal a region of pump instability that is characteristic of pumps and pump-turbines with scroll cases.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1995

Program Helps To Determine Chemical-Reaction Mechanisms

General Chemical Kinetics and Sensitivity Analysis (LSENS) computer code developed for use in solving complex, homogeneous, gas-phase, chemical-kinetics problems. Provides for efficient and accurate chemical-kinetics computations and provides for sensitivity analysis for variety of problems, including problems involving honisothermal conditions. Incorporates mathematical models for static system, steady one-dimensional inviscid flow, reaction behind incident shock wave (with boundary-layer correction), and perfectly stirred reactor. Computations of equilibrium properties performed for following assigned states: enthalpy and pressure, temperature and pressure, internal energy and volume, and temperature and volume. Written in FORTRAN 77 with exception of NAMELIST extensions used for input.

Bittker, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Accuracy analysis of the semi-analytical method for shape sensitivity calculation

The semianalytical method of design sensitivity analysis that is widely used for calculating derivatives of static response with respect to design variables for structures modeled by finite elements is studied. It is shown that the method can have serious accuracy problems for shape design variables in structures modeled by beam, plate, truss, frame, and solid elements. Errors are shown to be associated with an incompatibility of the sensitivity field with the structure. An error index is developed to test the accuracy of the semianalytical method. It characterizes the difference in errors between a general finite-difference method and the semianalytical method. A method for improving the accuracy of the semianalytical method (when possible) is provided. Examples are presented to demonstrate the use of the error index.

Barthelemy, Bruno↗

DOE OSTI2022

Real-World 20-Hz IBR Subsynchronous Oscillations: Signatures and Mechanism Analysis

This article provides analyses of subsynchronous oscillations associated with solar photovoltaics (PVs) observed in real world. All have oscillation frequencies at approximately 20 Hz in voltage and current magnitudes. On the other hand, in phase voltage and current, the oscillations show very different signatures. Through constructing simplified linear models and conducting sensitivity analysis, we are able to associate dynamic phenomena with the underlying mechanism and speculate the possible causes of the 20-Hz oscillations. The analysis results have all been validated via simulation results from electromagnetic transient (EMT) test beds constructed in MATLAB/Simscape.

inverter-based resources↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process- Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process- based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data- constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process- based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam- derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field- measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter- response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post- calibration GPP R2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

Carbon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Review of Noise Metric Sensitivities for Analysis of Quiet Supersonic Overflight

Six different noise metrics (PL, ASEL, BSEL, DSEL, ESEL, and ISBAP) are currently used to quantify sonic boom levels from overflight of supersonic aircraft. A previous meta-analysis using laboratory subjective data identified these metrics, each of which correlated well with human perception of low-boom sounds both indoors and outdoors. Because the analysis did not identify a single metric that was significantly superior, no internationally agreed-upon metric has been chosen for the quiet supersonic aircraft noise certification procedures currently under development. Other analyses of metric sensitivities using existing empirical and simulation datasets, however, have shown significant differences between metrics. Variability of metrics due to macro-atmospheric effects and atmospheric turbulence perturbations have been explored, as well as variability in measurements due to microphone setup configurations, array layouts, and ambient noise effects. This paper reviews these prior studies, summarizes the current understanding of metric sensitivities, and discusses how they may impact future downselection of metrics for certification procedures.

sonic boom↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗