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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

UAS remote sensing (DJI Phantom 4 RTK platform): RGB orthomosaic, digital surface and canopy height models, plant functional type map, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a DJI Phantom 4 RTK unoccupied aerial system (UAS) ? operated by the University of Maine Wheatland Geospatial Lab (https://wheatlandlab.org/). This package includes data from 17 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council, Kougarok, Kougarok Mile80, Teller, and Teller Mile32 sites in July 2019. The Phantom 4 RTK is a drone platform that collects very high spatial resolution optical red/green/blue (RGB) imagery. Derived image products include point cloud, ortho-mosaiced RGB, a digital surface model (DSM) using the structure from motion (SfM) technique, and a canopy height model (CHM). Unprocessed and processed data products (1,000+ files) are included in this package (processing levels 0-3). Data and metadata are provided as text (*.txt, *.json, *hdr,), ENVI image file (*.dat), point cloud (*.laz) and image (*.jpg, *.tif, *png) formats. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗

NASA NTRS1995

How far away is plug 'n' play? Assessing the near-term potential of sonification and auditory display

The commercial music industry offers a broad range of plug 'n' play hardware and software scaled to music professionals and scaled to a broad consumer market. The principles of sound synthesis utilized in these products are relevant to application in virtual environments (VE). However, the closed architectures used in commercial music synthesizers are prohibitive to low-level control during real-time rendering, and the algorithms and sounds themselves are not standardized from product to product. To bring sound into VE requires a new generation of open architectures designed for human-controlled performance from interfaces embedded in immersive environments. This presentation addresses the state of the sonic arts in scientific computing and VE, analyzes research challenges facing sound computation, and offers suggestions regarding tools we might expect to become available during the next few years. A list of classes of audio functionality in VE includes sonification -- the use of sound to represent data from numerical models; 3D auditory display (spatialization and localization, also called externalization); navigation cues for positional orientation and for finding items or regions inside large spaces; voice recognition for controlling the computer; external communications between users in different spaces; and feedback to the user concerning his own actions or the state of the application interface. To effectively convey this considerable variety of signals, we apply principles of acoustic design to ensure the messages are neither confusing nor competing. We approach the design of auditory experience through a comprehensive structure for messages, and message interplay we refer to as an Automated Sound Environment. Our research addresses real-time sound synthesis, real-time signal processing and localization, interactive control of high-dimensional systems, and synchronization of sound and graphics.

Bargar, Robin↗

NASA NTRS2003

Use of MODIS Land and Sea Surface Temperatures to Initialize Mesoscale Models

As computer power continues to increase, mesoscale models are initialized at all hours of the day and continue to be run at higher and higher spatial resolutions. As a result, initializing land surface temperature can be problematic. The majority of research-based models are initialized at 00 and 12 UTC when upper air observations and reanalysis fields are available. The landsea surface temperatures are then set equal to the two-meter air temperature produced by the preprocessor analysis system. This particular procedure might be valid in the early morning hours just prior to sunrise, but it becomes less valid during the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Operational models, such as the Rapid Update Cycle run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), are initialized every hour on a daily basis. This presents a unique challenge to the initial specification of the land temperature, especially during the first several hours of the solar heating cycle when land and overlying air temperatures are far from being the same. Another issue that needs to be addressed is the spatial variability of land surface temperature. By early next year, the NCEP operational Eta model will be employed at 8 km resolution. Methods to accurately specify the initial land surface temperature at such high resolution need to be explored. This paper presents the results of using data from the NASA Moderate Imaging Sensor aboard the TERRA Satellite to initialize land and sea surface temperatures within the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) 5'th generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). We have simulated a northern Gulf Coast sea breeze case to demonstrate the utility of using the MODIS data to initialize both the land and sea surface temperature fields. Model grid configurations of 12-, 4-, and l-km are employed.

Arnold, James E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2002

A quantitative comparison of simultaneous BOLD fMRI and NIRS recordings during functional brain activation

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been used to noninvasively monitor adult human brain function in a wide variety of tasks. While rough spatial correspondences with maps generated from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have been found in such experiments, the amplitude correspondences between the two recording modalities have not been fully characterized. To do so, we simultaneously acquired NIRS and blood-oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) fMRI data and compared Delta(1/BOLD) (approximately R(2)(*)) to changes in oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, and total hemoglobin concentrations derived from the NIRS data from subjects performing a simple motor task. We expected the correlation with deoxyhemoglobin to be strongest, due to the causal relation between changes in deoxyhemoglobin concentrations and BOLD signal. Instead we found highly variable correlations, suggesting the need to account for individual subject differences in our NIRS calculations. We argue that the variability resulted from systematic errors associated with each of the signals, including: (1) partial volume errors due to focal concentration changes, (2) wavelength dependence of this partial volume effect, (3) tissue model errors, and (4) possible spatial incongruence between oxy- and deoxyhemoglobin concentration changes. After such effects were accounted for, strong correlations were found between fMRI changes and all optical measures, with oxyhemoglobin providing the strongest correlation. Importantly, this finding held even when including scalp, skull, and inactive brain tissue in the average BOLD signal. This may reflect, at least in part, the superior contrast-to-noise ratio for oxyhemoglobin relative to deoxyhemoglobin (from optical measurements), rather than physiology related to BOLD signal interpretation.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic calibration of differential equations using machine learning, with application to turbulence models

We present a methodology for calibration of parametric ordinary and partial differential equation models, using off-the-shelf software for back-propagation in Neural Networks (NN). As a prototypical example, we consider calibration of a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closure model, against ground truth data from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of two different turbulent flows. Numerical time integration is represented as a custom NN, where only the RANS model parameters are trainable. A loss function is defined to quantify the mismatch between the NN prediction and the ground truth over a predefined, finite time integration window. This loss function is then minimized using a gradient descent method utilizing the back-propagation algorithm. Furthermore, this dynamic approach to training is to be contrasted with a static approach, wherein a least square regression estimate for parameters is obtained in the limit of an infinitesimal time integration window. In a first test of static and dynamic approaches against ground truth data generated by the model, the former proves to be significantly faster and more accurate than the latter at recovering the parameters. When both calibration approaches are tested against DNS data, for which it is known that the model cannot achieve a perfect fit, the static approach yields a good prediction only for short times, while the dynamic approach results in physical and stable predictions over the entire integration window. After optimization of the dynamic approach for time step, spatial resolution, stability, and physics-based constraints, we obtain a 50% improvement of outcomes over those obtained from the existing, manually calibrated set of parameters, demonstrating the merits of this systematic and automated procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Liquid-to-gas transfer of sodium in a liquid cathode glow discharge

Abstract Plasma-liquid interactions have been extensively studied with a focus on the transport of reactive species from the plasma to the liquid phase and their induced liquid phase chemistry and resulting applications. While solute transfer from the liquid to the gas phase in plasmas has been widely used in analytical chemistry, the underlying processes remain relatively unexplored. We report spatially and temporally resolved absolute density measurements of sodium in a plasma with a NaCl solution cathode using two-photon absorption laser induced fluorescence (TaLIF). The observed non-linear increase in sodium density with solution conductivity is shown to correlate with droplet generation as visualized by Mie scattering. The findings are explained by droplet generation by electrospray induced by Taylor cone formation as underpinning mechanism for the introduction of sodium in the plasma. An analytical sheath model combined with a scaling law shows an increase in electric field force with solution conductivity that is consistent with the observed non-linear increase in sodium density in the plasma with solution conductivity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Evidence for Many-Body Localization in Two and Three Dimensions

Disorder and interactions can lead to the breakdown of statistical mechanics in certain quantum systems, a phenomenon known as many-body localization (MBL). Much of the phenomenology of MBL emerges from the existence of localized-bits, or l-bits, a set of conserved quantities that are spatially localized and binary (i.e., possess only ±1 eigenvalues). While MBL and l-bits are known to exist in one-dimensional systems, their existence in dimensions greater than one is a key open question. To tackle this question, we develop an algorithm that can find approximate binary l-bits in arbitrary dimensions by adaptively generating a basis of operators in which to represent the l-bit. We use the algorithm to study four models: the one-, two-, and three-dimensional disordered Heisenberg models and the two-dimensional disordered hard-core Bose-Hubbard model. For all four of the models studied, our algorithm finds high-quality l-bits at large disorder strength and rapid qualitative changes in the distributions of l-bits in particular ranges of disorder strengths, suggesting the existence of MBL transitions. Furthermore, these transitions in the one-dimensional Heisenberg model and two-dimensional Bose-Hubbard model coincide well with past estimates of the critical disorder strengths in these models which further validates the evidence of MBL-like behavior in the other two and three-dimensional models we examine. In addition to finding MBL-like behavior in higher dimensions, our algorithm can be used to probe MBL in various geometries and dimensionality.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Film Cooling Performance Prediction for Air and Supercritical CO 2

The current study explores the possibility of cooling the vanes and blades of a direct-fired sCO 2 turbine using film cooling. The operating conditions of a direct-fired sCO 2 cycle and thermophysical properties of the fluid at those conditions can alter the flow field characteristics of the coolant jet and its mixing with the mainstream. Very little information is present in the literature regarding the performance of film cooling geometries employing supercritical CO 2 . The objective of this study is to estimate the resulting film cooling effectiveness while also capturing the effects of the crossflow-to-mainstream velocity ratio on the coolant jet. Herein, a computational fluid dynamic model is used to study the coolant jet exiting a cylindrical hole located on a flat plate, with the coolant fed by an internal channel. Steady-state Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations were solved along with the (shear-stress transport) SST k–ω model to provide the turbulence closure. The operating conditions for the direct-fired sCO 2 turbine are obtained using an in-house Cooled Turbine Model. Numerical predictions revealed that the crossflow effects and jet lift-off were more pronounced in the case of sCO 2 when compared to air. Spatial distribution of flow field and cooling effectiveness are presented at different operating conditions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

NASA NTRS1983

On the shock cell structure and noise of supersonic jets

A linear solution modeling the shock cell structure of an axisymmetric supersonic jet operated at off-design conditions is developed by the method of multiple-scales. The model solution takes into account the gradual spatial change of the mean flow in the downstream direction. Turbulence in the mixing layer of the jet has the tendency of smoothing out the sharp velocity and density gradients induced by the shocks. To simulate this effect, eddy viscosity terms are incorporated in the model. It is known that the interaction between the quasi-periodic shock cells and the downstream propagating large turbulence structures in the mixing layer of the jet is responsible for the generation of broadband shock associated noise. Experimentally, the dominant part of this noise has been found to originate from the part of the jet near the end of the potential core. Calculated shock cell spacing at the end of the jet core according to the present model is used to estimate the peak frequencies of the shock associated noise for a range of observation angles. Very favorable agreement with experimental measurements is found.

Tam, C. K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Finite element analysis of a micromechanical deformable mirror device

A monolithic spatial light modulator chip was developed consisting of a large number of micrometer-scale mirror cells which can be rotated through an angle by application of an electrostatic field. The field is generated by electronics integral to the chip. The chip has application in photoreceptor based non-impact printing technologies. Chips containing over 16000 cells were fabricated, and were tested to several billions of cycles. Finite Element Analysis (FEA) of the device was used to model both the electrical and mechanical characteristics.

Sheerer, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Near-field supersonic flow predictions by an adaptive unstructured tetrahedral grid solver

Applicability of a three-dimensional solution adaptive unstructured tetrahedral Euler flow solver about generic models for near-field sonic boom pressure signature predictions is evaluated. Comparisons of computational and experimental data demonstrates the capability of the method for predicting inviscid solutions useful for high speed calculations about simple 3-D geometries. The approach has promising features and results indicate potential for application to more complex configurations. The mesh generation is based on the advancing front technique, and steady state solutions of the Euler equations are achieved by explicit time integration. Spatial discretization uses the Taylor-Galerkin approach; an alternate time integration, based on the Runge-Kutta method, is also included. The solution-adaptive grid procedure is based on either remeshing or mesh refinement techniques. An alternative geometry-adaptive grid procedure has also been incorporated.

Djomehri, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The impact of land-surface wetness heterogeneity on mesoscale heat fluxes

Vertical heat fluxes associated with mesoscale circulations generated by land-surface wetness discontinuities are often stronger than turbulent fluxes, especially in the upper part of the atmospheric planetary boundary layer. As a result, they contribute significantly to the subgrid-scale fluxes in large-scale atmospheric models. Yet they are not considered in these models. To provide some insights into the possible parameterization of these fluxes in large-scale models, a state-of-the-art mesoscale numerical model was used to investigate the relationships between mesoscale heat fluxes and atmospheric and land-surface characteristics that play a key role in the generation of mesoscale circulations. The distribution of land-surface wetness, the wavenumber and the wavelength of the land-surface discontinuities, and the large-scale wind speed have a significant impact on the mesoscale heat fluxes. Empirical functions were derived to characterize the relationships between mesoscale heat fluxes and the spatial distribution of land-surface wetness. The strongest mesoscale heat fluxes were obtained for a wavelength of forcing corresponding approximately to the local Rossby deformation radius. The mesoscale heat fluxes are weakened by large-scale background winds but remain significant even with moderate winds.

Chen, Fei↗

NASA NTRS2001

Measurement of Separated Flow Structures Using a Multiple-Camera DPIV System

A novel multiple-camera system for the recording of digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV) images acquired in a two-dimensional separating/reattaching flow is described. The measurements were performed in the NASA Langley Subsonic Basic Research Tunnel as part of an overall series of experiments involving the simultaneous acquisition of dynamic surface pressures and off-body velocities. The DPIV system utilized two frequency-doubled Nd:YAG lasers to generate two coplanar, orthogonally polarized light sheets directed upstream along the horizontal centerline of the test model. A recording system containing two pairs of matched high resolution, 8-bit cameras was used to separate and capture images of illuminated tracer particles embedded in the flow field. Background image subtraction was used to reduce undesirable flare light emanating from the surface of the model, and custom pixel alignment algorithms were employed to provide accurate registration among the various cameras. Spatial cross correlation analysis with median filter validation was used to determine the instantaneous velocity structure in the separating/reattaching flow region illuminated by the laser light sheets. In operation the DPIV system exhibited a good ability to resolve large-scale separated flow structures with acceptable accuracy over the extended field of view of the cameras. The recording system design provided enhanced performance versus traditional DPIV systems by allowing a variety of standard and non-standard cameras to be easily incorporated into the system.

Humphreys, William M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Greenland Geothermal Heat Flow Database and Map (Version 1)

We compile and analyze all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database of 419 sites and generate an accompanying spatial map. This database includes 290 sites previously reported by the International Heat Flow Commission (IHFC), for which we now standardize measurement and metadata quality. This database also includes 129 new sites, which have not been previously reported by the IHFC. These new sites consist of 88 offshore measurements and 41 onshore measurements, of which 24 are subglacial. We employ machine learning to synthesize these in situ measurements into a gridded geothermal heat flow model that is consistent across both continental and marine areas in and around Greenland. This model has a native horizontal resolution of 55 km. In comparison to five existing Greenland geothermal heat flow models, our model has the lowest mean geothermal heat flow for Greenland onshore areas. Our modeled heat flow in central North Greenland is highly sensitive to whether the NGRIP (North GReenland Ice core Project) elevated heat flow anomaly is included in the training dataset. Our model's most distinctive spatial feature is pronounced low geothermal heat flow (< 40 mW m−2) across the North Atlantic Craton of southern Greenland. Crucially, our model does not show an area of elevated heat flow that might be interpreted as remnant from the Icelandic plume track. Finally, we discuss the substantial influence of paleoclimatic and other corrections on geothermal heat flow measurements in Greenland. The in situ measurement database and gridded heat flow model, as well as other supporting materials, are freely available from the GEUS Dataverse (https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/F9P03L; Colgan and Wansing, 2021).

William Colgan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Applications and Science – Past, Present, & Future

This is a presentation to be made at the University of Tokyo. The Idaho National Laboratory is creating the next-generation reliability- and risk-assessment methods and tools that support risk-informed decision-making by combining physics-based models with probabilistic quantification approaches. Integrating these two worlds of physics and probability using a simulation framework leads us to predictions based upon an approach called “computational risk assessment” which will serve as the technical basis for the future of reliability and risk approaches. The driving factors for this new approach includes: temporal (timing issues), spatial (location issues), mechanistic (physics issues), and topological (complexity issues). By combining phenomenology directly with stochastic quantification, we are able to perform advanced uncertainty analysis directly on both parameters and models. In addition, new tools allow for the creation of reduced order models that mimic high-fidelity engineering models while still permitting the realization of thousands of simulation iterations in short run-times on current workstation-class computers. While these advanced methods and tools can provide increased realism in our engineering safety and risk approaches, their greater benefit is to provide a risk-informed engineering framework for design and operation. This talk will briefly review the history of risk assessment and risk-informed applications, describe some of the current research and development found at the Idaho National Laboratory, and discuss potential future applications and approaches for advanced methods and tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗