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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2026

Characterizing the subglacial environment of lower Thwaites Glacier using radar modeling

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is vital to projecting its impact on future sea levels. Radar-echo sounding (RES) is commonly used to infer subglacial conditions, but these data can be challenging to interpret. We assess basal heterogeneity across Thwaites Glacier by comparing RES returns to a radar backscattering simulator for over 400 km of RES data. The modeled variations in bed returned power exhibited a strong correlation with actual RES data in 40% of our simulated flight segments, which we consider evidence for a relatively homogeneous glacier bed. Other sites (40%) demonstrated improved fit quality when hydrology or substrate transitions were introduced in the bed material model. The remaining simulated segments (20%) were diagnosed as having more complex basal heterogeneity. The spatial distribution of complex heterogeneity appears to coincide with asymmetric patterns in the RES specularity content, which has been interpreted in previous studies as a signature for channelized hydrology. Conversely, the homogeneous substrate locations coincide with areas of fast-moving ice in western Thwaites. Our simulation method can isolate power variations induced by material heterogeneity vs topography, which is an important limitation of existing RES analysis methods.

Antarctic glaciology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Visualizing Crystallization Dynamics and Transformation Pathways of Disordered Rocksalt Oxides During Thermally Activated Sol–Gel Synthesis

Sol–gel synthesis is a wet-chemical processing route for fabricating functional materials with control over composition and microstructure at relatively low temperatures compared to conventional solid-state synthesis. While sol–gel process initiates with intermixed molecular precursors, the early-stage nucleation pathways are insufficiently understood. Here, in this study, the chemical and structural transformation of ion disordered rocksalt (DRX) Li 1.2 Mn 0.4 Ti 0.4 O 2 (LMTO), a promising cathode material for lithium batteries, is studied by multiscale characterizations. In situ heating transmission electron microscopy (TEM) using a liquid cell visualizes and identifies crystallization pathways at the nanoscale. While some regions follow a classical multi-step transition through thermodynamically stable intermediates, others exhibit a kinetic shortcut via a localized amorphous matrix to directly form the DRX structure. Macroscale Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy corroborates the findings and reveals that transition metal ions are more strongly incorporated into the acetate-coordinated network than lithium. Although in situ heating TEM captures diverse local transformation pathways, in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction indicates that the macroscopic transformation proceeds predominantly through spinel LMTO and lithium titanates toward DRX-LMTO. The findings uncover the spatiotemporal chemical and structural transformations in sol–gel derived DRX-LMTO materials, and call for fine-tuning of such sol–gel chemistries to manipulate the crystallization pathways and achieve target material homogeneity more efficiently.

cathode material↗
NASA NTRS2026

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Framework of compressive sensing and data compression for 4D-STEM

Four-dimensional Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (4D-STEM) is a powerful technique for high-resolution and high-precision materials characterization at multiple length scales, including the characterization of beam-sensitive materials. However, the field of view of 4D-STEM is relatively small, which in absence of live processing is limited by the data size required for storage. Furthermore, the rectilinear scan approach currently employed in 4D-STEM places a resolution- and signal-dependent dose limit for the study of beam sensitive materials. Improving 4D-STEM data and dose efficiency, by keeping the data size manageable while limiting the amount of electron dose, is thus critical for broader applications. Here we introduce a general method for reconstructing 4D-STEM data with subsampling in both real and reciprocal spaces at high fidelity. The approach is first tested on the subsampled datasets created from a full 4D-STEM dataset, and then demonstrated experimentally using random scan in real-space. The same reconstruction algorithm can also be used for compression of 4D-STEM datasets, leading to a large reduction (100 times or more) in data size, while retaining the fine features of 4D-STEM imaging, for crystalline samples.

4D-STEM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Connectivity, Pathology, and ApoE4 Interactions Predict Longitudinal Tau Spatial Progression and Memory

ABSTRACT Tau pathology spread into neocortex indicates a transition from healthy aging to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Connectivity between tau epicenters and later accumulating regions of cortex has been proposed as a mechanism of tau spread, but how this relationship changes with greater AD pathology burden or genotype is not understood. We investigated tau accumulation in two key regions, precuneus and inferior temporal cortex, using resting state functional connectivity (rsFC) and longitudinal PET imaging from a multicohort sample of cognitively unimpaired older adults. We examined how baseline tau PET, Aβ PET, and ApoE4 genotype status interact with rsFC between hippocampus and these downstream regions to predict rate of tau accumulation in neocortex. We found that the 3‐way interaction between connectivity, baseline tau, and baseline Aβ or ApoE4 status was associated with neocortical tau accumulation in precuneus and inferior temporal cortex. In addition, baseline tau, Aβ, and ApoE4 status also moderated the association between connectivity and rate of memory decline. Together, these results suggest that the extent and distribution of future tau accumulation may be predicted by the interaction of baseline connectivity, AD pathology, and genetic risk.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dissecting Disorder: Defect-Driven Structural Complexity in Layered Li3InCl6 Solid Electrolyte

Halide solid electrolytes have emerged as promising candidates for solid-state batteries owing to their high oxidative stability and ionic conductivity. Among them, Li3InCl6 (LIC) has attracted significant attention. However, diffraction patterns of LIC synthesized via different methods exhibit distinct differences particularly at low-angle reflectionsindicative of underlying structural disorder. These variations are attributed to deviations from ideal crystallographic order, especially stacking faults, whose impact on structure and ion transport remains poorly understood. Here, we identify and quantify stacking faults in LIC samples prepared under different synthetic conditions. Using X-ray diffraction and time-of-flight neutron diffraction, we construct and refine stacking fault models that accurately reproduce the experimental diffraction features. LIC samples with higher degrees of stacking faults exhibit only negligible differences in ionic conductivities and activation energies. This indicates that stacking faults have a limited impact on altering the Li+ diffusion pathway along the c-axis, likely due to the high concentration of vacancies in the In layers, while Li+ diffusion remains nearly unchanged in the ab-plane. Our results account for the observed differences in diffraction patterns across samples and provide a quantitative assessment of faulting probabilities and stacking sequences. The insights gained from this study are expected to be broadly applicable to other layered halide solid electrolytes and contribute to a deeper understanding of the role of structural disorder in ion transport.

Liu, Jue [ORNL] (ORCID:000000024453910X)↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Study of Dopant Segregation Behavior During the Growth of GaAs in Microgravity

An investigation into the segregation behavior of selenium doped gallium arsenide during directional solidification in the microgravity environment was conducted using the Crystal Growth Furnace (CGF) aboard the first United States Microgravity Laboratory (USML-1). The two crystals grown were 1.5 cm in diameter and 16.5 cm in length with an initial melt length of 14 cm. Two translation periods were executed, the first at 2.5 microns/s and after a specified time, which was different between the two experiments, the translation rate was doubled to 5.0 microns/s. The translation was then stopped and the remaining sample melt was solidified using a gradient freeze technique in the first sample and a rapid solidification in the second experiment. Measurement of the selenium dopant distribution, using quantitative infrared transmission imaging, indicates that the first sample initially achieved diffusion controlled growth as desired. However, after about 1 cm of growth, the segregation behavior was driven from a diffusion controlled growth regime to a complete mixing regime. Measurements in the second flight sample indicated that the growth was always in a complete mixing regime. In both experiments, voids in the center line of the crystal, indicative of bubble entrapment, were found to correlate with the position in the crystal when the translation rates were doubled.

D H Matthiesen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection and characterization of detached tidal dwarf galaxies

Tidal interactions between galaxies often give rise to tidal tails, which can harbor concentrations of stars and interstellar gas resembling dwarf galaxies. Some of these tidal dwarf galaxies (TDGs) have the potential to detach from their parent galaxies and become independent entities, but their long-term survival is uncertain. In this study, we conducted a search for detached TDGs associated with a sample of 39 interacting galaxy pairs in the local Universe using infrared, ultraviolet, and optical images. We employed IR colors and UV/optical/IR spectral energy distributions to identify potential interlopers, such as foreground stars or background quasars. Through spectroscopic observations using the Boller and Chivens spectrograph at San Pedro Mártir Observatory, we confirmed that six candidate TDGs are at the same redshift as their putative parent galaxy pairs. We identified and measured emission lines in the optical spectra and calculated nebular oxygen abundances, which range from log(O/H) = 8.10 ± 0.01 to 8.51 ± 0.02. We have serendipitously discovered an additional detached TDG candidate in Arp72 using available spectra from SDSS. Utilizing the photometric data and the CIGALE code for stellar population and dust emission fitting, we derived the stellar masses, stellar population ages, and stellar metallicities for these detached TDGs. Compared to standard mass-metallicity relations for dwarf galaxies, five of the seven candidates have higher than expected metallicities, confirming their tidal origins. One of the seven candidates remains unclear due to large uncertainties in metallicity, and another has stellar and nebular metallicities compatible with those of a preexisting dwarf galaxy. The latter object is relatively compact in the optical relative to its stellar mass, in contrast to the other candidate TDGs, which have large diameters for their stellar masses compared to most dwarf galaxies. The derived stellar population ages range from 100 Myr to 900 Myr, while the inferred stellar masses are between 2 × 10 6 M ⊙ and 8 × 10 7 M ⊙ . Four of the six TDGs are associated with the gas-rich M51-like pair Arp 72, one TDG is associated with a second M51-like pair Arp 86, and another is associated with Arp 65, an approximately equal mass pair. In spite of the relatively low stellar masses of these TDGs, they have survived for at least 100–900 Myrs, suggesting that they are stable and in dynamical equilibrium. We conclude that encounters with a relatively low-mass companion (1/10th–1/4th of the mass of the primary) can also produce long-lasting TDGs.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Criteria for Retention of 3013 S1 Containers Based on Relative Risk and Expert Judgment

An evaluation was performed to assess the suitability of thirty-three 3013 containers proposed for retention. These containers have moisture levels greater than 0.08 wt.% – the S1 population. The remainder of the S1 population stored at SRS will be down blended and disposed of by the end of 2028. Based on field surveillance and shelf-life data available to date as well as informed technical judgment, no container is currently expected to fail in its 50-year storage period. However, corrosion risk varies across the S1 population. Relative risks were evaluated using predicted Consensus Scores and their 95% Upper Prediction Limits (UPLs). The predicted values are based on a statistical model of Consensus Score as a function of moisture, chloride, and whether the packaged material was electrorefining scrap packaged at Hanford. Consensus Score has been shown to be a useful indicator of corrosion potential, and the UPL captures uncertainty in the model predictions, providing a conservative indicator of corrosion potential. Using UPLs to determine relative risks, together with expert review, three containers were identified as not suitable for retention, and the remainder were determined to be suitable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A molecular conveyor belt-associated protein controls the rotational direction of the bacterial type 9 secretion system

ABSTRACT Many bacteria utilize the type 9 secretion system (T9SS) for gliding motility, surface colonization, and pathogenesis. This dual-function motor supports both gliding motility and protein secretion, where rotation of the T9SS plays a central role. Fueled by the energy of the stored proton motive force and transmitted through the torque of membrane-anchored stator units, the rotary T9SS propels an adhesin-coated conveyor belt along the bacterial outer membrane like a molecular snowmobile, thereby enabling gliding motion. However, the mechanisms controlling the rotational direction and gliding motility of T9SS remain elusive. Shedding light on this mechanism, we find that in the gliding bacteriumFlavobacterium johnsoniae, deletion of the C-terminus of the conveyor belt-associated protein GldJ controls and, in fact, reverses the rotational direction of T9SS from counterclockwise (CCW) to clockwise (CW). This suggests that the interface between the conveyor belt-associated protein GldJ and the T9SS ring protein GldK plays an important role in controlling the directionality of T9SS, potentially by modulating its interaction with the stator complex GldLM, which drives motor rotation. Combined with MD simulation of the T9SS stator units GldLM, we suggest a “tri-component gearset” model where GldJ controls the rotational direction of its driver, the T9SS, thus providing adaptive sensory feedback to influence the motility of the gliding bacterium. IMPORTANCE The type 9 secretion system (T9SS) is fundamental to bacterial gliding motility, pathogenesis, and surface colonization. Our findings reveal that the C-terminal region of the conveyor belt-associated protein GldJ functions as a molecular switch which is capable of reversing the rotational direction of T9SS. Through the coordinated actions of the T9SS stator units (akin to a driving motor), the GldK ring (the gear that converts rotational energy into linear movement), and GldJ, this machinery forms a smart conveyor belt system reminiscent of flexible or cognitive mechanical conveyors. Such advanced conveyors can alter their direction to adapt to shifting demands. Here, we show that the bacterial T9SS similarly adjusts its rotational bias based on feedback from the conveyor belt-associated protein GldJ. This dual-role feedback mechanism underscores an evolved, controllable biological snowmobile, offering new avenues for studying how bacteria fine-tune motility in dynamic environments.

Microbiology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hellas, Ken and Me: Adventures in Exhumation and Inundation

Hellas is the largest and deepest basin on Mars. A 1993 study by Moore and Edgett (GRL, 20, 1599-1602) noted that Hellas undergoes net dust erosion. Thus, the exposed surface must represent whatever lag or rock surface and could not be removed by the strong winds blowing at these low elevations. The particle size distributions and particularly the rock or boulder population in this lag was thought to be potentially useful for distinguishing between processes that formed the lithologic units that comprise Hellas Planitia. Earlier studies had suggested the Hellas floor might be paved with basalt or glacial deposits. Ken, who at the time was working with Viking Orbiter IRTM data knew that there were late mission observations of the Hellas floor acquired though clear skies. His derived thermal inertia from these observations strongly suggested that the abundance of particles larger than coarse sand was very low. Hence, our study concluded that the floor deposits were, among other possibilities, ancient loess or lacustrine deposits. In 2001 a subsequent study on the Hellas basin by Moore and Wilhelms (Icarus, 54, 258-276) proposed that the basin was once a site of an ice covered sea, based on a series of circum-basin scarps that follow constant elevations as well as other landforms seen my Mars Global Surveyor’s MOC (an instrument that Ken played a major role in daily operations and data analysis) and topography derived from MOLA. Subsequently the best contiguous observations of the Hellas basin have been acquired from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter’s Context Camera, which again Ken has been a central player in its operations. Much of what we know about the grain-scale sedimentology of martian lacustrine deposits comes from the Curiosity Rover’s Mars Hand Lens Imager (which Ken was the PI through development and original operations within Gale crater). Under Ken’s watch several members of the Murray Formation were determined to be deposited in a lacustrine environment. A conclusion strongly demonstrated by MHLI imaging. My personal relationship with Hellas isn’t over. The Europa Clipper flew directly over the Hellas basin including its deepest regions. Ther REASON Ice Penetrating Radar system collected data during this flyby ostensibly for calibration, yet the quality of the observations may yet provide new discoveries from Hellas.

Jeffrey M Moore↗
NASA NTRS2024

NIAC Phase I Final Report Lunar South Pole Oxygen Pipeline (LSPOP)

The Lunar South Pole Oxygen Pipeline (LSPOP) Phase I NIAC, is to analyze the feasibility of constructing a pipeline at the Moon’s South Pole for transporting gaseous oxygen from point of generation to point of use. A lunar pipeline has never been pursued and will revolutionize lunar surface operations for the Artemis program and reduce cost and risk. Our starting concept is for a 5 km pipeline to transport oxygen gas from an oxygen production source, for example from our molten regolith electrolysis (MRE, currently at TRL 5, see references[1],[2],[3],[4],[5],[6] for technical discussions of the MRE process) extraction site, or any other source, to an oxygen storage/liquification plant near a lunar base. The pipeline is designed to: 1) be constructed robotically from regolith-derived metals with minimal material transferred from Earth, 2) be repairable robotically, 3) have an oxygen flow rate of ~2 kg/hour, which is commensurate with the NASA initial projected need of 10,000 kg/year, 4) operate with minimal power over the lifetime of the pipeline, with a goal of high operational reliability and the ability to survive in the lunar environment for > 10 years. We compare this concept to a pipeline concept with pipe produced on Earth and then transported to and assembled on the Moon. Both approaches will use earth-based compressors, valves, and fittings which are integrated into the pipeline on the Moon.

NIAC Phase I↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electronic glasses from a broken gauge symmetry in disorder-free systems

Glass phases can be stabilized by quenched disorders, as in most spin-glass materials, or self-generated through kinetic freezing in disorder-free systems. A canonical example of the latter is structural glasses, which have been extensively studied for many decades. Yet, how the rugged energy landscape of a glass phase is spontaneously generated in disorder-free systems remains one of the key questions in glass physics. Here, in this work, we present a general electronic mechanism for the emergence of glassy phase using the example of itinerant electrons coupled to XY spins on a lattice. This model can also be viewed as the mean-field theory of a superconducting system with attractive density-density interactions. Intriguingly, the electron gauge symmetry in the strong pairing limit gives rise to a macroscopic degeneracy of XY spins. In the presence of electron hopping that breaks the gauge symmetry, the lifting of the extensive degeneracy leads to a glass phase with disordered pairings. Our findings highlight a scenario in which a glassy state originates from the breaking of quantum gauge symmetry without quenched disorders.

XY model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heat exposure and maternal stress: evidence from the GRAPHS pregnancy cohort in Ghana

Heat exposure has been linked to psychosocial stress, an established antecedent of perinatal depression; however, evidence on heat-related stress during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. We analyzed psychosocial stress scores and covariate data from the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study, linking daily maximum and minimum shaded wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) metrics to participants’ stress scores derived from the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised Life Events Questionnaire. We evaluated associations using ordinal logistic regression of pregnancy-average and trimester-average exposures and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess time-varying associations across gestation. Higher average maximum WBGT exposure across pregnancy was associated with increased odds of higher psychosocial stress; each 1 °C increase in maximum WBGT was associated with 64% higher odds of belonging to a higher stress category (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.17–2.31; p = 0.0040). In trimester-average models, higher first-trimester maximum WBGT was also associated with higher stress (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.15–1.81; p = 0.0014). DLNMs suggested that relatively cooler daily maximum WBGT values (25th percentile) were associated with decreased odds of stress in early pregnancy, whereas extreme daily maximum WBGT values (99th percentile) showed a pattern consistent with increased odds of stress in mid-to-late gestation. These findings highlight gestational windows in which heat exposure may influence stress, emphasizing the need for further research into underlying mechanisms and effective interventions to protect maternal mental health in heat-vulnerable settings.

White, Lewis [Columbia University] (ORCID:00090005↗
NASA NTRS2026

Development and Experimental Validation of a Path-Dependent Spin Forming Finite Element Model

Spin forming is an advanced manufacturing process widely used in the aerospace and defense sectors to produce lightweight, high-strength cylindrical components with tight dimensional tolerances. This study explores the applicability of the path-dependent Mechanical Threshold Stress (MTS) constitutive model by simulating the evolution of geometry, machining forces, and plastic deformation during the spin forming of a 10-mm thick 6061-O aluminum cylinder. While numerical modeling of spin forming has advanced substantially over the past decade, systematic verification and experimental validation of material models remain limited, particularly in predicting through-thickness process evolution. The MTS model, incorporating a Voce hardening rule, is employed for its ability to represent cyclic loading, rapidly varying temperature fields, and strain rates characteristic of spin forming. Numerical convergence analysis indicates discretization uncertainties between 0.3% and 9.2% for key quantities of interest. Experimental validation demonstrates that the MTS model, when implemented with a verified mesh, accurately reproduces both elastic and plastic behavior of 6061-O aluminum, predicting peak roller loads within 11–18% of measurements, geometric tolerances within 3%, and plastic strain distributions within 10% of experimental values. Collectively, these results establish a validated computational framework for predictive spin-forming simulations with quantified confidence, providing a foundation for extension to other alloys, geometries, and forming conditions.

Spin forming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reflection and refraction of directrons at the interface

Reflection and refraction are ubiquitous phenomena with extensive applications, yet minimizing energy loss and information distortion during these processes remains a significant challenge. This study examines the behavior of structurally stable solitons, known as directrons, in nematic liquid crystals interacting with an interface where the director field orientation changes, despite identical physical properties, external potentials, and boundary anchoring in the two regions. During reflection and refraction, the directrons maintain nearly constant structure and velocity, ensuring energy conservation and information integrity. Microscopic analyses of the director field and macroscopic evaluations of effective potential are employed to elucidate the dependence of reflection and refraction probabilities on the directron’s incident angle and the orientation difference across the interface. The findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of solitary waves in structured liquid crystal systems, offering significant implications for the development of tunable photonic devices, reconfigurable optical systems, and nanoscale material engineering.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Customizable wave tailoring nonlinear materials enabled by bilevel inverse design

Abstract Passive wave transformation via nonlinearity is ubiquitous in settings from acoustics to optics and electromagnetics. It is well known that different nonlinearities yield different effects on propagating signals, which raises the question of “what precise nonlinearity is the best for a given wave tailoring application?” In this work, considering a one-dimensional spring-mass chain connected by polynomial springs (a variant of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou system), we introduce a bilevel inverse design method which couples the shape optimization of structures for tailored constitutive responses with reduced-order nonlinear dynamical inverse design. We apply it to two qualitatively distinct problems—minimization of peak transmitted kinetic energy from impact, and pulse shape transformation—demonstrating our method’s breadth of applicability. For the impact problem, we obtain two fundamental insights. First, small differences in nonlinearity can drastically change the dynamic response of the system, from severely under- to outperforming a comparative linear system. Second, the oft-used strategy of impact mitigation via “energy locking” bistability can be significantly outperformed by our optimal nonlinearity. We validate this case with impact experiments and find excellent agreement. This study establishes a framework for broader passive nonlinear mechanical wave tailoring material design, with applications to computing, signal processing, shock mitigation, and autonomous materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗