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At least 1,207 records · Page 67

Development of a Data Fusion Methodology for Lineload Aerodynamic Databases for a Launch Vehicle during Liftoff and Transition

The need for databases for the distributed loading on launch vehicles during the early portion of flight necessitates the use of expensive computational flows in regimes where wake effects dominate. While also being expensive, this is a regime that computational tools tend to historically have problems simulating accurately. To help tackle this problem, a method of data fusion to combine computational results to wind tunnel derived force and moment data is developed. Using this method, significant reduction in computational costs and increases in confidence of the final product is possible and has been used to generate several databases for the Space Launch System (SLS) at NASA. While the full details of database generation are not part of this work, the crucial method at its core is developed here. Two SLS geometries are used throughout the work to demonstrate the techniques. These are two of the larger geometries and represent both planned crewed missions to the Moon as well as potential cargo missions to deep space. The method uses principal component analysis (PCA) to generate a reduced ordered model (ROM) to help fill in the full parameter space. Other similar techniques are explored, but were not found to have a significant result on the predictions of the ROM. Because the full number of components are kept to generate the model, this lack of difference is expected. This method is then extended to ensure that predicted surfaces match trusted force and moment data derived from wind tunnel testing. This extension is done by setting up a constrained optimization problem in order to minimize the deviation from the surface resolved computational data while still integrating to the desired values. When generating the constrained optimization problem, a weighting factor to balance these competing needs is introduced. The work compares previously introduced weighting terms from similar work to the proposed terms and shows that the previously used terms do not have as desirable behavior in this flow regime. This method is then expanded by developing a technique to incorporate uncertainty quantification into the developed data fusion methodology. This expansion takes a two pronged approach. One examines transferring the uncertainties in the force and moment database and characterizes how those adjustments change the predicted lineloads. The second looks at model form error and looks how rebuilding the model using slightly different data changes the predictions. These two terms are then combined in order to create an uncertainty model that takes both effects into account. The limitations of the proposed methods is then discussed as well as possible techniques to address these shortcomings.

Launch Vehicles↗

Error field and magnetic diagnostic modeling for W7-X

The prediction, detection, and compensation of error fields for the W7-X device will play a key role in achieving a high beta (Β = 5%), steady state (30 minute pulse) operating regime utilizing the island divertor system [1]. Additionally, detection and control of the equilibrium magnetic structure in the scrape-off layer will be necessary in the long-pulse campaign as bootstrapcurrent evolution may result in poor edge magnetic structure [2]. An SVD analysis of the magnetic diagnostics set indicates an ability to measure the toroidal current and stored energy, while profile variations go undetected in the magnetic diagnostics. An additional set of magnetic diagnostics is proposed which improves the ability to constrain the equilibrium current and pressure profiles. However, even with the ability to accurately measure equilibrium parameters, the presence of error fields can modify both the plasma response and diverter magnetic field structures in unfavorable ways. Vacuum flux surface mapping experiments allow for direct measurement of these modifications to magnetic structure. The ability to conduct such an experiment is a unique feature of stellarators. The trim coils may then be used to forward model the effect of an applied n = 1 error field. This allows the determination of lower limits for the detection of error field amplitude and phase using flux surface mapping. *Research supported by the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466 with Princeton University.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment. These calibrations (utilizing each of the major data subsets within the solution) yield very stable calibration factors which vary by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests employed. Measurements of gravity anomalies obtained from altimetry were also used directly as observations to show that GEM-T1 is calibrated. The mathematical representation of the covariance error in the presence of unmodeled systematic error effects in the data is analyzed and an optimum weighting technique is developed for these conditions. This technique yields an internal self-calibration of the error model, a process which GEM-T1 is shown to approximate.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Ultimate limits to error probabilities for ionospheric models based on solar geophysical indices and how these compare with the state of the art

An ideal model based on a given set of geophysical indices is defined as a model that provides a least squares fit to the data set as a function of the indices considered. Satellite measurements of electron content for three stations at different magnetic latitudes were used to provide such data sets which were each fitted to the geophysical indices. The magnitude of the difference between the measured value and the derived equation for the data set was used to estimate the probability of making an error greater than a given magnitude for such an ideal model. Atmospheric Explorer C data is used to examine the causes of the fluctuations and suggestions are made about how real improvements can be made in ionospheric forecasting ability. Joule heating inputs in the auroral electrojets are related to the AL and AU magnetic indices. Magnetic indices based on the time integral of the energy deposited in the electrojets are proposed for modeling processes affected by auroral zone heating.

Nisbet, J. S.↗

Global mean sea surface computation based upon a combination of SEASAT and GEOS-3 satellite altimeter data

A mean sea surface map was computed for the global ocean areas between 70 deg N latitude and 62 deg S latitude based upon the 70 day SEASAT and 3.5 year GEOS-3 altimeter data sets. The mean sea surface is presented in the form of a global contour map and a 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg grid. A combination of regional adjustments based upon crossover techniques and the subsequent adjustment of the regional solutions into a global reference system was employed in order to minimize the effects of radial orbit error. A global map of the crossover residuals after the crossover adjustments are made is in good agreement with earlier mesoscale variability contour maps based upon the last month of SEASAT collinear data. This high level of agreement provides good evidence that relative orbit error was removed to the decimeter level on a regional basis. This represents a significant improvement over our previous maps which contained patterns, particularly in the central Pacific, which were due to radial orbit error. Long wavelength, basin scale errors are still present with a submeter amplitude due to errors in the PGS-S4 gravity model. Such errors can only be removed through the improvement of the Earth's gravity model and associated geodetic parameters.

Marsh, J. G.↗

Influence of Strain-Gage Balance Characteristics on the Precision Error of the Drag Coefficient

Improvements and results of a new method are presented that computes a pre-test estimate of the precision error of the drag coefficient of a wind tunnel model. The error estimate is defined as the part of the drag coefficient's precision error that is primarily associated with the precision error of the angle of attack measurement and physical characteristics of the chosen strain-gage balance. The method indirectly describes the precision error of the angle of attack measurement by using an assumed balance gage output variation of one microV/V. The physical characteristics of the balance, on the other hand, are described by partial derivatives of the axial and normal forces with respect to the strain-gage outputs. These derivatives can directly be obtained from the data reduction matrix of the balance. The precision error estimate itself is calculated by applying a simple explicit equation that uses the model reference area, the dynamic pressure, the angle of attack, the coefficients of the linear terms of the data reduction matrix, and the electrical output variation of one microvolt per volt as input. Precision errors at constant angle of attack may be visualized as contour plots by plotting them, for example, versus the Mach number and the total pressure. Characteristics of NASA's MC60E balance are used in combination with the reference area of a generic wind tunnel model in order to demonstrate that error estimates are independent of both the balance load format and the units chosen for the description of balance loads, model reference area, and the dynamic pressure. Finally, experimental data from a wind tunnel test of the Ames Check Standard Model in the NASA Ames 11-foot Transonic Wind Tunnel illustrates the application of the method to real-world test data.

precision error↗

Uncertainty quantification for incident helium flux in plasma-exposed tungsten

In this work, the surface response of a tungsten plasma-facing component was simulated by a cluster-dynamics code, Xolotl, with a focus on quantifying the impact of uncertainty in one of the input parameters to Xolotl, namely, the incident helium flux. The simulated conditions involve a tungsten surface exposed to 100 eV helium ion implantations with a flux of either 4 × 10 22 or 4 × 10 25 He m -2 s -1 . Furthermore, two sources were used to describe the implanted helium depth distribution in tungsten, either molecular dynamics (MD) or a binary collision approximation code, the stopping and range of ions in matter (SRIM). The aim of this work is to evaluate and examine uncertain predictions on the helium retention based on these two different modeling methodologies that either neglect electronic energy loss or the crystalline structure of the solid, respectively. An embedded model-form error approach was pursued here in order to arrive at predictions that account for variability due to the two different data sources, and the impact of this model-form uncertainty in incident helium flux on Xolotl output was presented for the two implantation fluxes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Characterizing Impacts of Storage Faults on HPC Applications: A methodology and insights

In recent years, the increasing complexity in scientific simulations and emerging demands for training heavy artificial intelligence models require massive and fast data accesses, which urges high-performance computing (HPC) platforms to equip with more advanced storage infrastructures such as solid-state disks (SSDs). While SSDs offer high-performance I/O, it remains unclear about the reliability challenges faced by the HPC applications under the SSD-related failures, in particular, failures resulting in data corruptions. The goal of this paper is to understand the impact of SSD-related data corruptions on the behaviors of complex HPC applications. To this end, we propose FFIS, a FUSE-based fault injection framework that systematically introduces storage faults into the application layer to model the errors originated from SSDs. FFIS is able to plant different I/O related faults into the data returned from underlying file systems, which also enables the investigation on the error resilience characteristics of the scientific file format for the first time. We demonstrate the use of FFIS with three representative real HPC applications, show how each application reacts to the data corruptions, and provide insights on the error resilience of the widely-adopted HDF5 file format for the HPC applications.

Fang, Bo↗

Assessment of Error Sources in the Modeling of POA Irradiance Under Clear-Sky Conditions: Preprint

A new physics-based model, the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT), accurately computes plane-of-array (POA) irradiances in both narrow- and broad wavelength bands within the solar region. The evaluation studies suggest that the new model provides increased accuracy than a model assuming isotropic diffuse solar radiation and an empirical model linking the POA irradiances with long-term surface observations at selected locations. This study anlyzes the surface observations used by FARMS-NIT and is intended to understand the error sources under clear-sky conditions as well as their impact to the performance of FARMS-NIT.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling noise in global Mølmer-Sørensen interactions applied to quantum approximate optimization

Many-qubit Mølmer-Sørensen (MS) interactions applied to trapped ions offer unique capabilities for quantum information processing, with applications including quantum simulation and the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). Here, we develop a physical model to describe many-qubit MS interactions under four sources of experimental noise: vibrational mode frequency fluctuations, laser power fluctuations, thermal initial vibrational states, and state preparation and measurement errors. The model parametrizes these errors from simple experimental measurements, without free parameters. Herein, we validate the model in comparison with experiments that implement sequences of MS interactions on two 171 Yb + ions. The model shows reasonable agreement after several MS interactions as quantified by the reduced chi-squared statistic $χ^{2}_{red}$≈2. As an application we examine MaxCut QAOA experiments on three and six ions. The experimental performance is quantified by approximation ratios that are 91% and 83% of the optimal theoretical values. Our model predicts $0.93^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ and $0.95^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, respectively, with disagreement in the latter value attributable to secondary noise sources beyond those considered in our analysis. With realistic experimental improvements to reduce measurement error and radial trap frequency variations, the model achieves approximation ratios that are 99% of the optimal. Incorporating these improvements into future experiments is expected to reveal new aspects of noise for future modeling and experimental improvements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mars approach navigation using Doppler and range measurements to surface beacons and orbiting spacecraft

Approximate analytical models are developed and used to construct an error covariance analysis for investigating the range of orbit determination accuracies which might be achieved for typical Mars approach trajectories. The sensitivity or orbit determination accuracy to beacon/orbiter position errors and to small spacecraft force modeling errors is also investigated. The results indicate that the orbit determination performance obtained from both Doppler and range data is a strong function of the inclination of the approach trajectory to the Martian equator, for surface beacons, and for orbiters, the inclination relative to the orbital plane. Large variations in performance were also observed for different approach velocity magnitudes; Doppler data in particular were found to perform poorly in determining the downtrack (along the direction of flight) component of spacecraft position. In addition, it was found that small spacecraft acceleration modeling errors can induce large errors in the Doppler-derived downtrack position estimate.

Thurman, Sam W.↗

MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP3-01: A Statistical Model for Analyzing the Rotational Error of Single Iso-Center Technique

Purpose: To develop a generalized statistical model that incorporates the treatment uncertainty from the rotational error of single iso-center technique, and calculate the additional PTV (planning target volume) margin required to compensate for this error. Methods: The random vectors for setup and additional rotation errors in the three-dimensional (3D) patient coordinate system were assumed to follow the 3D independent normal distribution with zero mean, and standard deviations σx, σy, σz, for setup error and a uniform σR for rotational error. Both random vectors were summed, normalized and transformed to the spherical coordinates to derive the chi distribution with 3 degrees of freedom for the radical distance ρ. PTV margin was determined using the critical value of this distribution for 0.05 significant level so that 95% of the time the treatment target would be covered by ρ. The additional PTV margin required to compensate for the rotational error was calculated as a function of σx, σy, σz and σR. Results: The effect of the rotational error is more pronounced for treatments that requires high accuracy/precision like stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) or stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). With a uniform 2mm PTV margin (or σx =σy=σz=0.7mm), a σR=0.32mm will decrease the PTV coverage from 95% to 90% of the time, or an additional 0.2mm PTV margin is needed to prevent this loss of coverage. If we choose 0.2 mm as the threshold, any σR>0.3mm will lead to an additional PTV margin that cannot be ignored, and the maximal σR that can be ignored is 0.0064 rad (or 0.37°) for iso-to-target distance=5cm, or 0.0032 rad (or 0.18°) for iso-to-target distance=10cm. Conclusions: The rotational error cannot be ignored for high-accuracy/-precision treatments like SRS/SBRT, particularly when the distance between the iso-center and target is large.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Simulated rRNA/DNA Ratios Show Potential To Misclassify Active Populations as Dormant

ABSTRACT The use of rRNA/DNA ratios derived from surveys of rRNA sequences in RNA and DNA extracts is an appealing but poorly validated approach to infer the activity status of environmental microbes. To improve the interpretation of rRNA/DNA ratios, we performed simulations to investigate the effects of community structure, rRNA amplification, and sampling depth on the accuracy of rRNA/DNA ratios in classifying bacterial populations as “active” or “dormant.” Community structure was an insignificant factor. In contrast, the extent of rRNA amplification that occurs as cells transition from dormant to growing had a significant effect ( P < 0.0001) on classification accuracy, with misclassification errors ranging from 16 to 28%, depending on the rRNA amplification model. The error rate increased to 47% when communities included a mixture of rRNA amplification models, but most of the inflated error was false negatives (i.e., active populations misclassified as dormant). Sampling depth also affected error rates ( P < 0.001). Inadequate sampling depth produced various artifacts that are characteristic of rRNA/DNA ratios generated from real communities. These data show important constraints on the use of rRNA/DNA ratios to infer activity status. Whereas classification of populations as active based on rRNA/DNA ratios appears generally valid, classification of populations as dormant is potentially far less accurate. IMPORTANCE The rRNA/DNA ratio approach is appealing because it extracts an extra layer of information from high-throughput DNA sequencing data, offering a means to determine not only the seedbank of taxa present in communities but also the subset of taxa that are metabolically active. This study provides crucial insights into the use of rRNA/DNA ratios to infer the activity status of microbial taxa in complex communities. Our study shows that the approach may not be as robust as previously supposed, particularly in complex communities composed of populations employing different growth strategies, and identifies factors that inflate the erroneous classification of active populations as dormant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Direct model reference adaptive control with application to flexible robots

A modification to a direct command generator tracker-based model reference adaptive control (MRAC) system is suggested in this paper. This modification incorporates a feedforward into the reference model's output as well as the plant's output. Its purpose is to eliminate the bounded model following error present in steady state when previous MRAC systems were used. The algorithm was evaluated using the dynamics for a single-link flexible-joint arm. The results of these simulations show a response with zero steady state model following error. These results encourage further use of MRAC for various types of nonlinear plants.

Steinvorth, Rodrigo↗

AveBoost2: Boosting for Noisy Data

AdaBoost is a well-known ensemble learning algorithm that constructs its constituent or base models in sequence. A key step in AdaBoost is constructing a distribution over the training examples to create each base model. This distribution, represented as a vector, is constructed to be orthogonal to the vector of mistakes made by the pre- vious base model in the sequence. The idea is to make the next base model's errors uncorrelated with those of the previous model. In previous work, we developed an algorithm, AveBoost, that constructed distributions orthogonal to the mistake vectors of all the previous models, and then averaged them to create the next base model s distribution. Our experiments demonstrated the superior accuracy of our approach. In this paper, we slightly revise our algorithm to allow us to obtain non-trivial theoretical results: bounds on the training error and generalization error (difference between training and test error). Our averaging process has a regularizing effect which, as expected, leads us to a worse training error bound for our algorithm than for AdaBoost but a superior generalization error bound. For this paper, we experimented with the data that we used in both as originally supplied and with added label noise-a small fraction of the data has its original label changed. Noisy data are notoriously difficult for AdaBoost to learn. Our algorithm's performance improvement over AdaBoost is even greater on the noisy data than the original data.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

Inversion of vegetation canopy reflectance models for estimating agronomic variables. II - Use of angle transforms and error analysis as illustrated by Suits' model

The technique for inverting a vegetation canopy reflectance model described earlier (Goel and Strebel, 1983) is investigated further. The novel concept of an 'angle transform' is introduced. This concept allows the formation of functions of reflectances at different view zenith and azimuth angles, which are either sensitive or insensitive to a certain agronomic parameter. A proper combination of these functions can allow determination of all the important agronomic and spectral parameters from measured canopy reflectance data. The technique is demonstrated using Suits' (1972) model for homogeneous canopies. It is shown that leaf area index, leaf reflectance and transmittance, and average leaf angle all can be determined from the canopy reflectance at a set of selected view zenith and azimuth angles. A sensitivity analysis of the calculated values to the errors in the data is also carried out. Guidelines are formulated for the number and types of observations required to obtain the values of a particular canopy variable to within a given degree of accuracy for a given level of error in the measurement of canopy reflectance.

Goel, N. S.↗

Multiphenomenology explosion monitoring (MultiPEM): a general framework for data interpretation and yield estimation

SUMMARY An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) couples mechanical energy into crustal rock, which propagates as seismic and acoustic waves. These different physical phenomena transport, by different pathways, to standoff detectors at varying distances. The transport pathways attenuate the original signal but in different ways. Enabled by correct statistical weighting, signal attenuation models can be used to combine these disparate sensor data to estimate the yield of an UNE. Contemporaneous statistical models, used in yield estimation, can be improved with an advanced partition of error for these physical signal propagation models. We present an advanced multivariate approach to error modelling of multiphenomenology physical signatures. In addition to measurement error, our error model represents physical model biases as random with a physics-based covariance structure. To illustrate this proposed framework, we demonstrate the estimation of explosion yield using openly available seismic and acoustic data from chemical single-point explosions.

Williams, Brian J.↗

Assessing Cognitive Impacts of Errors from Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models: Final Report

Due to their recent increases in performance, machine learning and deep learning models are being increasingly adopted across many domains for visual processing tasks. One such domain is international nuclear safeguards, which seeks to verify the peaceful use of commercial nuclear energy across the globe. Despite recent impressive performance results from machine learning and deep learning algorithms, there is always at least some small level of error. Given the significant consequences of international nuclear safeguards conclusions, we sought to characterize how incorrect responses from a machine or deep learning-assisted visual search task would cognitively impact users. We found that not only do some types of model errors have larger negative impacts on human performance than other errors, the scale of those impacts change depending on the accuracy of the model with which they are presented and they persist in scenarios of evenly distributed errors and single-error presentations. Further, we found that experiments conducted using a common visual search dataset from the psychology community has similar implications to a safeguards- relevant dataset of images containing hyperboloid cooling towers when the cooling tower images are presented to expert participants. While novice performance was considerably different (and worse) on the cooling tower task, we saw increased novice reliance on the most challenging cooling tower images compared to experts. These findings are relevant not just to the cognitive science community, but also for developers of machine and deep learning that will be implemented in multiple domains. For safeguards, this research provides key insights into how machine and deep learning projects should be implemented considering their special requirements that information not be missed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗