Results for “generator parameter estimation” — Page 67

DOE OSTI2024

Critical Literature Review of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants and their Environmental Impact

Refrigeration and air conditioning currently account for ~20% of the total electricity consumption in buildings around the world. Over the next three decades as global temperatures are projected to increase, urbanization and economic growth will lead to an increased demand for refrigeration and cooling. Most commonly used refrigerants belong to the five following classes: (i) chlorofluorocarbons, (ii) hydrochlorofluorocarbons, (iii) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), (iv) hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), and (v) natural refrigerants. Over the past century, there have been shifts in which compounds were used for refrigeration to improve safety and durability, allow for ozone protection, and, most recently, to reduce global warming potential (GWP). Although technological advances have led to increased cooling capacity and safer refrigerants, emissions from refrigeration systems can affect the environment by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions or by depleting the ozone layer, depending on the gas emitted. The focus is increasingly on adopting compounds that are both efficient at cooling and effective for reducing emissions and other adverse environmental impacts. Because of policy and regulatory changes to avert ozone depletion and global climate change, much discussion has centered on the environmental impacts of next-generation refrigerants. Of particular interest are the fluorinated refrigerants, HFCs and HFOs, most of which are defined as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their breakdown products (especially trifluoroacetic acid). The US Environmental Protection Agency in 2021 drafted a Strategic Roadmap for PFAS, which has already resulted in an increase in investment in research on these compounds and has restricted the release of PFAS into the environment through the implementation of monitoring and reporting requirements. A critical evaluation of fluorinated refrigerants and their breakdown products with respect to persistence, biodegradation and toxicity, and global warming potential is needed to guide environmental regulations. This document aims to perform a critical review of the relevant scientific data on the most common refrigerants currently used, their degradation products, and their alternatives. Where available, estimates of precursor production quantities and existing environmental regulatory information are reviewed. Key data of interest for the evaluation include physicochemical properties, environmental fate parameters, ecological or human health toxicity/risk information, and GWP for compounds of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical Literature Review of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants and their Environmental Impact

Refrigeration and air conditioning currently account for ~20% of the total electricity consumption in buildings around the world. Over the next three decades as global temperatures are projected to increase, urbanization and economic growth will lead to an increased demand for refrigeration and cooling. Most commonly used refrigerants belong to the five following classes: (i) chlorofluorocarbons, (ii) hydrochlorofluorocarbons, (iii) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), (iv) hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), and (v) natural refrigerants. Over the past century, there have been shifts in which compounds were used for refrigeration to improve safety and durability, allow for ozone protection, and, most recently, to reduce global warming potential (GWP). Although technological advances have led to increased cooling capacity and safer refrigerants, emissions from refrigeration systems can affect the environment by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions or by depleting the ozone layer, depending on the gas emitted. The focus is increasingly on adopting compounds that are both efficient at cooling and effective for reducing emissions and other adverse environmental impacts. Because of policy and regulatory changes to avert ozone depletion and global climate change, much discussion has centered on the environmental impacts of next-generation refrigerants. Of particular interest are the fluorinated refrigerants, HFCs and HFOs, most of which are defined as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their breakdown products (especially trifluoroacetic acid). The US Environmental Protection Agency in 2021 drafted a Strategic Roadmap for PFAS, which has already resulted in an increase in investment in research on these compounds and has restricted the release of PFAS into the environment through the implementation of monitoring and reporting requirements. A critical evaluation of fluorinated refrigerants and their breakdown products with respect to persistence, biodegradation and toxicity, and global warming potential is needed to guide environmental regulations. This document aims to perform a critical review of the relevant scientific data on the most common refrigerants currently used, their degradation products, and their alternatives. Where available, estimates of precursor production quantities and existing environmental regulatory information are reviewed. Key data of interest for the evaluation include physicochemical properties, environmental fate parameters, ecological or human health toxicity/risk information, and GWP for compounds of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

On sound generation by turbulent convection: A new look at old results

We have revisited the problem of acoustic wave generation by turbulent convection in stellar atmospheres. The theory of aerodynamically generated sound, originally developed by Lighthill and later modified by Stein to include the effects of stratification, has been used to estimate the acoustic wave energy flux generated in solar and stellar convection zones. We correct the earlier computations by incorporating an improved description of the spatial and temporal spectrum of the turbulent convection. We show the dependence of the resulting wave fluxes on the nature of the turbulence, and compute the wave energy spectra and wave energy fluxes generated in the Sun on the basis of a mixing-length model of the solar convection zone. In contrast to the previous results, we show that the acoustic energy generation does not depend very sensitively on the turbulent energy spectrum. However, typical total acoustic fluxes of order F(sub A) = 5 x 10(exp 7) ergs/sq cm/s with a peak of the acoustic frequency spectrum near omega = 100 mHz are found to be comparable to those previously calculated. The acoustic flux turns out to be strongly dependent on the solar model, scaling with the mixing-length parameter alpha as alpha(exp 3.8). The computed fluxes most likely constitute a lower limit on the acoustic energy produced in the solar convection zone if recent convection simulations suggesting the presence of shocks near the upper layers of the convection zone apply to the Sun.

Musielak, Z. E.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Bayesian and LASSO Regressions for Comparative Permeability Modeling of Sandstone Reservoirs

In this research, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) algorithms were adopted for the core permeability modeling as a function of well log and core measurements. More specifically, the core permeability (dependent factor) was modeled given the well log and core data (independent variables) and then predicted in non-cored intervals of a well in a sandstone formation. The BMA is a stochastic linear modeling and a Bayesian parameter selection. Among 50 linear models generated as a function of the independent variables and depicted in Occam’s window, the best model of the highest posterior probability is determined. The best model has the optimal subset parameters that most influences the response factor. The core permeability modeling was again conducted using the LASSO algorithm, which adopts a completely different way of modeling and subset selection by using the penalized least-squared equation. Both BMA and LASSO resulted in a very accurate prediction of the core permeability by achieving perfect measured and calculated permeability matching. Matches for the two algorithms were quantified by computing the adjusted R-squared and root-mean-squared prediction error. In addition, results of the BMA and LASSO were compared to the conventional multiple linear regression (LM). The LASSO algorithm led to an accurate matching similar to LM, but slightly better than BMA. Therefore, both BMA and LASSO represent integrated procedures for accurate permeability estimation similar to conventional regression analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Onset of cavitation and vapor bubble development over hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces

Cavitation, the formation of vapor bubbles as the liquid pressure is reduced below the saturated vapor pressure, often requires a substantial negative relative pressure in a pure liquid. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) provides an estimate for the rate of cavitation but there is often a disconnect between the predictions at the molecular scale compared to observations at the macroscale. We report on mesoscale simulations of cavitation based on many-body dissipative particle dynamics (mDPD), a coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD), which bridges the two scales. A liquid layer is confined between smooth planar walls at a constant temperature, while the pressure is reduced slowly by expanding the wall-bounded domain. The wetting properties of the liquid are determined by the parameters of the interaction potentials. With hydrophilic walls, homogeneous nucleation is observed in the liquid bulk. As a bubble forms and grows, it creates a strong pressure pulse and oscillations that cause other bubbles that may have formed slightly later to collapse. For a nearly neutral wall with a contact angle close to 90 ° , heterogeneous nucleation occurs at the walls at a smaller negative pressure and generates weaker pressure oscillations. With hydrophobic walls or seed particles, heterogeneous nucleation readily occurs, where fluctuations and the merger of transient surface bubbles are significant.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks

Confidently designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear applications. This type of analysis relies on matching new nuclear applications with existing benchmark experiments. The Whisper-1.1 software package included in MCNP6.2 ®1 contains more than 1,100 International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. These benchmarks however rarely match new nuclear applications. The number of benchmarks available to match a given set of materials or geometric configurations varies significantly. Furthermore, recently performed benchmark experiments may not have had enough time to be properly documented and published. Benchmarks are vital for determining the accuracy of nuclear data and can assist nuclear physics and evaluators in improving nuclear data libraries. Exhaustively exploring the parameter space using simulations with software such as MCNP is too computationally expensive. In this work, Gaussian process optimization was implemented to reduce the number of simulations needed for optimization over multiple parameters. This optimization scheme was designed to selectively generate new benchmarks with high sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. Two benchmark models of spherically nested shells containing plutonium, uranium, tantalum, and water were used in the optimization to match an application containing plutonium plates, stacked in a tantalum reflector, surrounded by water.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measuring stellar populations, dust attenuation and ionized gas at kpc scales in 10010 nearby galaxies using the integral field spectroscopy from MaNGA

As one of the three major experiments of the fourth-generation Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV), the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apatch Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey has obtained high-quality integral field spectroscopy (IFS) with a resolution of 1–2 kpc for ∼ 10 4 galaxies in the local universe during its six-year operation from July 2014 through August 2020. It is crucial to reliably measure the physical properties of the different components in each spectrum before one can use the data for any scientific study. In the past years we have made lots of efforts to develop a novel technique of full spectral fitting, which estimates a model-independent dust attenuation curve from each spectrum, thus allowing us to break the degeneracy between dust attenuation and stellar population properties when fitting the spectrum with stellar population synthesis models. We have applied our technique to the final data release of MaNGA, and obtained measurements of stellar population properties and emission line parameters, as well as the kinematics and dust attenuation of both stellar and ionized gas components. In this paper we describe our technique and the content and format of our data products. The whole dataset is publicly available in Science Data Bank with the link https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.j00113.00088 .

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗

DOE OSTI2016

Interface Control Document for the EMPACT Module that Estimates Electric Power Transmission System Response to EMP-Caused Damage

The EPREP code is designed to evaluate the effects of an Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) on the electric power transmission system. The EPREP code embodies an umbrella framework that allows a user to set up analysis conditions and to examine analysis results. The code links to three major physics/engineering modules. The first module describes the EM wave in space and time. The second module evaluates the damage caused by the wave on specific electric power (EP) transmission system components. The third module evaluates the consequence of the damaged network on its (reduced) ability to provide electric power to meet demand. This third module is the focus of the present paper. The EMPACT code serves as the third module. The EMPACT name denotes EMP effects on Alternating Current Transmission systems. The EMPACT algorithms compute electric power transmission network flow solutions under severely damaged network conditions. Initial solutions are often characterized by unacceptible network conditions including line overloads and bad voltages. The EMPACT code contains algorithms to adjust optimally network parameters to eliminate network problems while minimizing outages. System adjustments include automatically adjusting control equipment (generator V control, variable transformers, and variable shunts), as well as non-automatic control of generator power settings and minimal load shedding. The goal is to evaluate the minimal loss of customer load under equilibrium (steady-state) conditions during peak demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automatic detection of low surface brightness galaxies from Sloan Digital Sky Survey images

ABSTRACT Low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies are galaxies with central surface brightness fainter than the night sky. Due to the faint nature of LSB galaxies and the comparable sky background, it is difficult to search LSB galaxies automatically and efficiently from large sky survey. In this study, we established the low surface brightness galaxies autodetect (LSBG-AD) model, which is a data-driven model for end-to-end detection of LSB galaxies from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) images. Object-detection techniques based on deep learning are applied to the SDSS field images to identify LSB galaxies and estimate their coordinates at the same time. Applying LSBG-AD to 1120 SDSS images, we detected 1197 LSB galaxy candidates, of which 1081 samples are already known and 116 samples are newly found candidates. The B-band central surface brightness of the candidates searched by the model ranges from 22 to 24 mag arcsec−2, quite consistent with the surface brightness distribution of the standard sample. A total of 96.46 per cent of LSB galaxy candidates have an axial ratio (b/a) greater than 0.3, and 92.04 per cent of them have $fracDev\_r$ < 0.4, which is also consistent with the standard sample. The results show that the LSBG-AD model learns the features of LSB galaxies of the training samples well, and can be used to search LSB galaxies without using photometric parameters. Next, this method will be used to develop efficient algorithms to detect LSB galaxies from massive images of the next-generation observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bootstrap-determined p values in lattice QCD

We present a general method to determine the probability that stochastic Monte Carlo data, in particular those generated in a lattice QCD calculation, would have been obtained were that data drawn from the distribution predicted by a given theoretical hypothesis. Such a probability, or p -value, is often used as an important heuristic measure of the validity of that hypothesis. The proposed method offers the benefit that it remains usable in cases where the standard Hotelling T 2 methods based on the conventional χ 2 statistic do not apply, such as for uncorrelated fits. Specifically, we analyze q 2 , defined as the correlated χ 2 statistic obtained using an arbitrary covariance matrix estimator, and show how to use the bootstrap as a data-driven method to determine the expected distribution of q 2 for a given hypothesis with minimal assumptions. This distribution can then be used to determine the p -value for a fit to the data. We also describe a bootstrap approach for quantifying the impact upon this p -value of estimating population parameters from a single ensemble of N samples. The overall method is accurate up to a 1 / N bias which we do not attempt to quantify. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Design and Simulation of a Novel Mechanical Power Take-Off for a Two-Body Wave Energy Point Absorber

In this paper, a two-body self-react wave energy converter with a novel mechanical Power Take-off (PTO) is introduced. The PTO rectifies the mechanical motion and regulates the flow with a mechanism called Mechanical Motion Rectifier (MMR), which converts the reciprocating motion of the ocean wave into unidirectional rotation of the generator. The overall system is analyzed in both time and frequency domain. In time domain, the piecewise non-linear dynamic model of the MMR PTO is derived, and parameters that could significantly influence the MMR property is extracted. By building the model into WEC-Sim, a time domain wave energy converter (WEC) simulation tool, to simulate and evaluate the performance of the PTO. In addition, the system is modelled as a two-body vibration system for frequency domain analysis in order to further investigate and optimize the proposed wave energy converter. The tunable parameters within the system, including the equivalent mass, the equivalent damping coefficient, and the PTO stiffness, are discussed based on the criteria of maximization of the total output power. To verify the theoretical analysis, a bench test prototype is developed and tested on a hydraulic test machine. The experimental results in line with the derived model and can be used for reasonable estimation on the output power of the proposed system in real ocean conditions.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2016

Concept for Maritime Near-Surface Surveillance Using Water Raman Scattering

In this report we discuss a new maritime surveillance and detection concept based on Raman scattering of water molecules. Using a scanning lidar that detects Raman scattered photons from water, the absence or change of signal indicates the presence of a non-water object. With sufficient spatial resolution a negative two dimensional image of the object can be generated by the scanning lidar. Because Raman scattering is an inelastic process with a relatively large wavelength shift for water, this concept completely avoids the problematic elastic scattering for objects at or very close to the water surface. Elastic scattering makes it difficult to discriminate between water and dark objects at or near the water surface especially when automated detection is required. It is also difficult to deal with elastic scattering from the bottom surface for shallow waters. The maximum detection depth for this concept is limited by the attenuation of the excitation and return Raman light in water. If excitation in the UV is used, fluorescence can be used for discrimination between organic and non-organic objects. Range gating can be used for this concept for detection of objects below a specified depth. In this report we develop a lidar model for this concept to estimate the number of detected Raman photons for variable lidar parameters and depths in the presence of the solar background. We also report on the results of proof-of-concept measurements using the Sandia Ares lidar with excitation at 355 nm. The measurements show good agreement with the lidar model predictions. The detected number of photons for typical lidar parameter shows the concept is viable and applicable to a variety of day and nighttime detection scenarios. This concept has many potential applications including near-surface mine detection, swimmer detection for security purposes, wide area search, as well as other civilian applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Time value of emission and technology discounting rate for off-grid electricity generation in India using intermediate pyrolysis

The environmental impact assessment of a process over its entire operational lifespan is an important issue. Estimation of life cycle emission helps in predicting the contribution of a given process to abate (or to pollute) the environmental emission scenario. Considering diminishing and time-dependent effect of emission, assessment of the overall effect of emissions is very complex. The paper presents a generalized methodology for arriving at a single emission discounting number for a process option, using the concept of time value of carbon emission flow. This number incorporates the effect of the emission resulting from the process over the entire operational lifespan. The advantage of this method is its quantitative aspect as well as its flexible nature. It can be applied to any process. The method is demonstrated with the help of an Intermediate Pyrolysis process when used to generate off-grid electricity and opting biochar route for disposing straw residue. The scenarios of very high net emission to very high net carbon sequestration is generated using process by careful selection of process parameters for different scenarios. For these different scenarios, the process discounting rate was determined and its outcome is discussed. The paper also proposes a process specific eco-label that mentions the discounting rates. - Highlight: • Methodology to obtain emission discounting rate for a process is proposed. • The method includes all components of life cycle emission converts into a time dependent discounting number. • A case study of Intermediate Pyrolysis is used to obtain such number for a range of processes. • The method is useful to determine if the effect from the operation of a process will lead to a net absorption of emission or net accumulation of emission in the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Feedstock-Conversion Interface Consortium: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Summary Report (FY2022)

This report provides an overview of the development of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and its implementation as a systematic criticality and risk assessment tool supporting a quality by design (QbD) approach for FCIC research. This report also provides a high-level overview of the results for the FMEA evaluation of two feedstock preprocessing system configurations: (1) generation of pine residue materials for high-temperature pyrolysis conversion and (2) generation of corn stover materials for low-temperature conversion using deacetylation and disc mechanical refining pretreatment for fermentation to hydrocarbons. For the results presented in this report, our FMEA interviews included two approaches. The first approach was to perform FMEA interviews for the entire system of unit operations giving a wholistic system level view. The second approach consisted of detailed interviews for each individual unit operation within the system allowing for a “deep dive” into the specific failures for the individual components within the configuration. These two approaches provide different resolutions of information. The FMEA results of this report were focused on failures associated with meeting critical quality attributes (CQAs) identified for the target conversion processes for each processed feedstock type. The information gathered through the FMEA interviews include estimations of risk scores for meeting each given CQA specification, identification of the impacts for not meeting a CQA specification, capturing causes associated with material attributes and process parameters for each failure, identification of current detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing a failure’s risk score. The complete results of all FMEA interviews are provided in the Appendices of this report.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Summary Report

This report provides an overview of the development of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and its implementation as a systematic criticality and risk assessment tool supporting a quality by design (QbD) approach for FCIC research. This report also provides a high-level overview of the results for the FMEA evaluation of two feedstock preprocessing system configurations: (1) generation of pine residue materials for high-temperature pyrolysis conversion and (2) generation of corn stover materials for low-temperature conversion using deacetylation and disc mechanical refining pretreatment for fermentation to hydrocarbons. For the results presented in this report, our FMEA interviews included two approaches. The first approach was to perform FMEA interviews for the entire system of unit operations giving a wholistic system level view. The second approach consisted of detailed interviews for each individual unit operation within the system allowing for a “deep dive” into the specific failures for the individual components within the configuration. These two approaches provide different resolutions of information. The FMEA results of this report were focused on failures associated with meeting critical quality attributes (CQAs) identified for the target conversion processes for each processed feedstock type. The information gathered through the FMEA interviews include estimations of risk scores for meeting each given CQA specification, identification of the impacts for not meeting a CQA specification, capturing causes associated with material attributes and process parameters for each failure, identification of current detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing a failure’s risk score. The complete results of all FMEA interviews are provided in the Appendices of this report.

conversion↗

DOE OSTI2016

Estimating uncertainty in ambient and saturation nutrient uptake metrics from nutrient pulse releases in stream ecosystems

Nutrient spiraling is an important ecosystem process characterizing nutrient transport and uptake in streams. Various nutrient addition methods are used to estimate uptake metrics; however, uncertainty in the metrics is not often evaluated. A method was developed to quantify uncertainty in ambient and saturation nutrient uptake metrics estimated from saturating pulse nutrient additions (Tracer Additions for Spiraling Curve Characterization; TASCC). Using a Monte Carlo (MC) approach, the 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated for ambient uptake lengths (S w-amb ) and maximum areal uptake rates (U max ) based on 100,000 datasets generated from each of four nitrogen and five phosphorous TASCC experiments conducted seasonally in a forest stream in eastern Tennessee, U.S.A. Uncertainty estimates from the MC approach were compared to the CIs estimated from ordinary least squares (OLS) and non-linear least squares (NLS) models used to calculate S w-amb and U max , respectively, from the TASCC method. The CIs for Sw-amb and Umax were large, but were not consistently larger using the MC method. Despite the large CIs, significant differences (based on nonoverlapping CIs) in nutrient metrics among seasons were found with more significant differences using the OLS/NLS vs. the MC method. Lastly, we suggest that the MC approach is a robust way to estimate uncertainty, as the calculation of S w-amb and U max violates assumptions of OLS/NLS while the MC approach is free of these assumptions. The MC approach can be applied to other ecosystem metrics that are calculated from multiple parameters, providing a more robust estimate of these metrics and their associated uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗