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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Models for Binary Molecular Classification using VUV Absorption Spectra

Machine learning methods were combined with differential absorption spectroscopy measurements in the vacuum-ultraviolet region (5.167 – 9.920 eV) in order to develop predictive capabilities for inferring molecular structure from the spectra. Several types of species were analyzed and, for modeling purposes, were defined using a single classification: (1) alkane, (2) conjugation with oxygen (e.g. diacetyl, ethyl vinyl ether), (3) non-conjugated alkene (e.g. 1-butene, 1,4-cyclohexadiene), (4) oxygen-containing (e.g. 1-butanol, tetrahydrofuran), or (5) cyclic (e.g. cyclopentane, cyclohexanone). The latter molecular classification excluded cyclic ethers. Several modeling methods were employed in the analysis of 102 absorption spectra, 24 of which were measured for the first time. The primary objective was to identify suitable methods that enable accurate predictions of molecular structure classifications with minimized statistical uncertainties. Rather than identifying a single, unifying method to reliably predict molecular structure contributions to VUV absorption spectra, coordination is required among a particular method, the type of molecular structure detail (e.g. conjugation), and absorption region of interest. The latter is accomplished using a binning approach, wherein absorption regions of ~0.5 eV were utilized rather than the entire ~4.8 eV range. Photon energy binning enabled analysis of region-specific predictions of accuracy, precision, and recall. The outcome from the binning approach is that, rather than utilizing the entire spectrum, optimal determination of molecular structure using machine learning methods depends on the absorption region. Furthermore, the present work provides separate machine learning models for each molecular classification, which enables the identification of multi-functional species relevant to atmospheric chemistry and combustion chemistry, where isomer-resolved speciation is critical to understanding complex reaction networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Human reliability analysis studies from simulator experiments using Bayesian inference

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of complex facilities is performed to arrive at the risk posed by them. PSA also accounts for the contribution of the human errors towards the overall risk through Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in terms of Human Error Probability (HEP). Human operators are part of the system and do not work in isolation. Their performance is influenced by the context in which the actions are performed. As a result, quantification of HEP requires operator performance data under the given context. Some good sources of operator performance data are plant‘s operation data, simulator data and expert judgement. The plant operation data pertaining to HRA is generally sparse. In this situation, a full scope plant simulator provides a good alternative for operator performance data generation. Many of the currently practiced HRA methods have been developed by combining the empirical evidence with expert judgement and contain a lot of uncertainty in their estimates. Bayesian inference is suitable for updating the prior HRA estimates with the simulator evidence to obtain the posterior HEP. Here, posterior HEP has been calculated for postulated accident scenarios in advanced reactor (first of its kind) at design stage, using plant simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Assessment of high enthalpy geothermal resources and promising areas of Chile

This work aims to assess geothermal power potential in identified high enthalpy geothermal areas in the Chilean Andes, based on reservoir temperature and volume. In addition, we present a set of highly favorable geothermal areas, but without enough data in order to quantify the resource. Information regarding geothermal systems was gathered and ranked to assess Indicated or Inferred resources, depending on the degree of confidence that a resource may exist as indicated by the geoscientific information available to review. Resources were estimated through the USGS Heat in Place method. A Monte Carlo approach is used to quantify variability in boundary conditions. Estimates of total Indicated resource are confined to 3 geothermal systems; Apacheta, El Tatio and Tolhuaca, yielding a total value of 228 ± 154. MWe. The estimates of the total Inferred resources for Chile include 6 geothermal systems and yield a total value of 431 ± 321. MWe. Standard deviation reflects the high variability of reservoir specific parameters for each system. A set of 65 favorable geothermal areas are proposed as the most likely future development targets. Finally, eight of them have initial exploration results that suggest they are highly favorable targets as potential geothermal resources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Storm-driven particulate organic matter flux connects a tidal tributary floodplain wetland, mainstem river, and estuary

The transport of terrestrial plant matter into coastal waters is important to regional and global biogeochemical cycles, and methods for assessing and predicting fluxes in such dynamic environments are needed. We investigated the hypothesis that upon reconnection of a floodplain wetland to its mainstem river, organic matter produced in the wetland would reach other parts of the ecosystem. If so, we can infer that the organic matter would ultimately become a source for the food web in the mainstem river and estuary. To accomplish this, we adapted numerical hydrodynamic and transport modeling methods to estimate the mass of particulate organic matter (POM) derived from the annually senescent aboveground parts of herbaceous marsh plants (H–POM). The Finite–Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), parameterized with flow, tide, and aboveground biomass data, simulated H–POM mobilization from fluid shear stress during tidal exchange, flooding, and variable river flow; entrainment into the water column; transport via channel and overland flow; and entrapment when wetted surfaces dry. We examined export from a recently reconnected, restoring tidal emergent marsh on the Grays River, a tributary to the Columbia River estuary. Modeling indicated that hydrologically reconnecting 65 ha at the site resulted in export of about 96 × 10 3 kg of H–POM, primarily during pulsed storm flooding events in autumn and early winter. This exported mass amounted to about 19% of the summer peak aboveground biomass measured at the site. Of that 19%, about 48% (47 × 10 3 kg) was deposited downstream in the Grays River and floodplain wetlands, and the remaining 52% (50 × 10 3 kg) passed the confluence of the Grays River and the mainstem estuary located about 7 km from the study site. The colonization of the restoring study site largely by nonnative Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) may have resulted in 18–28% lower H–POM mobilization than typical marsh plant communities on this floodplain, based on estimates from regional studies of marshes dominated by less recalcitrant species. Here, we concluded that restored floodplain wetlands can contribute significant amounts of organic matter to the estuarine ecosystem and thereby contribute to the restoration of historical trophic structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prime VI

SAND2025-03757O Prime VI is a distribution-of-disease outbreak model calibration code based on variational inference. It accompanies a publication for submission to Statistics in Medicine journal, and the code will be maintained for open-source use on Sandia's GitLab. The software provides methods for calibrating an epidemiological model to measured case-count data for a multitude of correlated spatial regions. The code solves a Bayesian inverse problem for model calibration where the posterior over-model parameters are approximated through a custom implementation of variational inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
NASA NTRS2010

Efficient Web Services Policy Combination

Large-scale Web security systems usually involve cooperation between domains with non-identical policies. The network management and Web communication software used by the different organizations presents a stumbling block. Many of the tools used by the various divisions do not have the ability to communicate network management data with each other. At best, this means that manual human intervention into the communication protocols used at various network routers and endpoints is required. Developing practical, sound, and automated ways to compose policies to bridge these differences is a long-standing problem. One of the key subtleties is the need to deal with inconsistencies and defaults where one organization proposes a rule on a particular feature, and another has a different rule or expresses no rule. A general approach is to assign priorities to rules and observe the rules with the highest priorities when there are conflicts. The present methods have inherent inefficiency, which heavily restrict their practical applications. A new, efficient algorithm combines policies utilized for Web services. The method is based on an algorithm that allows an automatic and scalable composition of security policies between multiple organizations. It is based on defeasible policy composition, a promising approach for finding conflicts and resolving priorities between rules. In the general case, policy negotiation is an intractable problem. A promising method, suggested in the literature, is when policies are represented in defeasible logic, and composition is based on rules for non-monotonic inference. In this system, policy writers construct metapolicies describing both the policy that they wish to enforce and annotations describing their composition preferences. These annotations can indicate whether certain policy assertions are required by the policy writer or, if not, under what circumstances the policy writer is willing to compromise and allow other assertions to take precedence. Meta-policies are specified in defeasible logic, a computationally efficient non-monotonic logic developed to model human reasoning. One drawback of this method is that at one point the algorithm starts an exhaustive search of all subsets of the set of conclusions of a defeasible theory. Although the propositional defeasible logic has linear complexity, the set of conclusions here may be large, especially in real-life practical cases. This phenomenon leads to an inefficient exponential explosion of complexity. The current process of getting a Web security policy from combination of two meta-policies consists of two steps. The first is generating a new meta-policy that is a composition of the input meta-policies, and the second is mapping the meta-policy onto a security policy. The new algorithm avoids the exhaustive search in the current algorithm, and provides a security policy that matches all requirements of the involved metapolicies.

Vatan, Farrokh↗
DOE OSTI2015

Effects of magnetization on fusion product trapping and secondary neutron spectra

By magnetizing the fusion fuel in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) systems, the required stagnation pressure and density can be relaxed dramatically. This happens because the magnetic field insulates the hot fuel from the cold pusher and traps the charged fusion burn products. This trapping allows the burn products to deposit their energy in the fuel, facilitating plasma self-heating. Here, we report on a comprehensive theory of this trapping in a cylindrical DD plasma magnetized with a purely axial magnetic field. Using this theory, we are able to show that the secondary fusion reactions can be used to infer the magnetic field-radius product, BR, during fusion burn. This parameter, not ρR, is the primary confinement parameter in magnetized ICF. Using this method, we analyze data from recent Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion experiments conducted on the Z machine at Sandia National Laboratories. We show that in these experiments BR ≈ 0.34(+0.14/−0.06) MG · cm, a ∼ 14× increase in BR from the initial value, and confirming that the DD-fusion tritons are magnetized at stagnation. This is the first experimental verification of charged burn product magnetization facilitated by compression of an initial seed magnetic flux.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Tensor-Dictionary Learning with Deep Kruskal-Factor Analysis

We introduce new dictionary learning methods for tensor-variate data of any order. We represent each data item as a sum of Kruskal decomposed dictionary atoms within the framework of beta-process factor analysis (BPFA). Our model is nonparametric and can infer the tensor-rank of each dictionary atom. This Kruskal-Factor Analysis (KFA) is a natural generalization of BPFA. We also extend KFA to a deep convolutional setting and develop online learning methods. We test our approach on image processing and classification tasks achieving state of the art results for 2D & 3D inpainting and Caltech 101. The experiments also show that atom-rank impacts both overcompleteness and sparsity.

Stevens, Andrew J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating posterior quantity of interest expectations in a multilevel scalable framework

Scalable approaches for uncertainty quantification are necessary for characterizing prediction confidence in large-scale subsurface flow simulations with uncertain permeability. To this end we explore a multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating posterior moments of a particular quantity of interest, where we employ an element-agglomerated algebraic multigrid (AMG) technique to generate the hierarchy of coarse spaces with guaranteed approximation properties for both the generation of spatially correlated random fields and the forward simulation of Darcy's law to model subsurface flow. In both these components (sampling and forward solves), we exploit solvers that rely on state-of-the-art scalable AMG. To illustrate the applicability of this approach, numerical tests are performed on two 3D examples-a unit cube and an egg-shaped domain with an irregular boundary-where the scalability of each simulation as well as the scalability of the overall algorithm are demonstrated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

A direct filter method for parameter estimation

Parameter estimation is an important research topic in data assimilation. In this paper, a novel parameter estimation method is introduced, where the parameter is considered as the state process in a nonlinear filtering problem and the state model that contains the parameter is used to construct a pseudo-observation. This approach is named the direct filter method since nonlinear filtering algorithms are used to estimate the parameter directly without estimating the state model as part of the solution in the nonlinear filtering problem. Numerical experiments are carried out to examine the effectiveness and accuracy of the direct filter method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems

Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Characterizing phonon dynamics using stochastic sampling

Predicting phonon relaxation time from molecular dynamics (MD) requires a long simulation time to compute the mode energy auto-correlation function. Here, we present an alternative approach to infer the phonon life-time from an approximate form of the energy auto-correlation function. The method requires as an input a set of sampled equilibrium configurations. A stochastic sampling method is used to generate the equilibrium configurations. We consider a truncated Taylor series expansion of the phonon energy auto-correlation function. The different terms in the truncated correlation function are obtained using the stochastic sampling approach. The expansion terms, thus, obtained are in good agreement with the corresponding values obtained using MD. We then use the approximate function to compute the phonon relaxation time. The relaxation time computed using this method is compared with that obtained from the exact correlation function. The two values are in agreement with each other.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for high explosive reactant and product equations of state

Equations of state (EOSs) are typically represented as physics-informed models with tunable parameters that are adjusted to replicate calibration data as closely as possible. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) allows for the development of an ensemble of EOS parameters that are consistent with the calibration data instead of a single EOS. In this work, we perform UQ for the reactant and product EOSs for a variety of high explosives (HEs). In doing so, we demonstrate a strategy for dealing with heterogeneous (both experimental and calculated) data. We also use a statistical distance metric to quantify the differences between the various HEs using the UQ results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cartesian equivariant representations for learning and understanding molecular orbitals

Qualitative and quantitative orbital properties such as bonding/antibonding character, localization, and orbital energies are critical to how chemists understand reactivity, catalysis, and excited-state behavior. Despite this, representations of orbitals in deep learning models have been very underdeveloped relative to representations of molecular geometries and Hamiltonians. Here, we apply state-of-the-art equivariant deep learning architectures to the task of assigning global labels to orbitals, namely energies characterizations, given the molecular coefficients from Hartree–Fock or density functional theory. The architecture we have developed, the Cartesian Equivariant Orbital Network (CEONET), shows how molecular orbital coefficients are readily featurized as equivariant node features common to all graph-based machine-learned potentials. We find that CEONET performs well at predicting difficult quantitative labels such as the orbital energy and orbital entropy. Furthermore, we find that the CEONET representation provides an intuitive latent space for differentiating orbital character for the qualitative assignment of e.g. bonding or antibonding character. In addition to providing a useful representation for further integrating deep learning with electronic structure theory, we expect CEONET to be useful for automatizing and interpreting the results of advanced electronic structure methods such as complete active space self-consistent field theory. In particular, the ability of CEONET to infer multireference character via the orbital entropy paves the way toward the machine-learned selection of active spaces.

chemical reactions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constructing a Simulation Surrogate with Partially Observed Output

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these surrogates. However, surrogate methods with dimension reduction generally rely on complete output training data. This article proposes a new Gaussian process surrogate method that permits the use of partially observed output while remaining computationally efficient. The new method involves the imputation of missing values and the adjustment of the covariance matrix used for Gaussian process inference. The resulting surrogate represents the available responses, disregards the missing responses, and provides meaningful uncertainty quantification. In conclusion, the proposed approach is shown to offer sharper inference than alternatives in a simulation study and a case study where an energy density functional model that frequently returns incomplete output is calibrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE APOKASC CATALOG: AN ASTEROSEISMIC AND SPECTROSCOPIC JOINT SURVEY OF TARGETS IN THE KEPLER FIELDS

We present the first APOKASC catalog of spectroscopic and asteroseismic properties of 1916 red giants observed in the Kepler fields. The spectroscopic parameters provided from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment project are complemented with asteroseismic surface gravities, masses, radii, and mean densities determined by members of the Kepler Asteroseismology Science Consortium. We assess both random and systematic sources of error and include a discussion of sample selection for giants in the Kepler fields. Total uncertainties in the main catalog properties are of the order of 80 K in T {sub eff}, 0.06 dex in [M/H], 0.014 dex in log g, and 12% and 5% in mass and radius, respectively; these reflect a combination of systematic and random errors. Asteroseismic surface gravities are substantially more precise and accurate than spectroscopic ones, and we find good agreement between their mean values and the calibrated spectroscopic surface gravities. There are, however, systematic underlying trends with T {sub eff} and log g. Our effective temperature scale is between 0 and 200 K cooler than that expected from the infrared flux method, depending on the adopted extinction map, which provides evidence for a lower value on average than that inferred for the Kepler Input Catalog (KIC). We find a reasonable correspondence between the photometric KIC and spectroscopic APOKASC metallicity scales, with increased dispersion in KIC metallicities as the absolute metal abundance decreases, and offsets in T {sub eff} and log g consistent with those derived in the literature. We present mean fitting relations between APOKASC and KIC observables and discuss future prospects, strengths, and limitations of the catalog data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing Qubit Readout with Autoencoders

In addition to the need for stable and precisely controllable qubits, quantum computers take advantage of good readout schemes. Superconducting qubit states can be inferred from the readout signal transmitted through a dispersively coupled resonator. Here, this work proposes a readout classification method for superconducting qubits based on a neural network pretrained with an autoencoder approach. A neural network is pretrained with qubit readout signals as autoencoders in order to extract relevant features from the data set. Afterward, the pretrained-network inner-layer values are used to perform a classification of the inputs in a supervised manner. We demonstrate that this method can enhance classification performance, particularly for short- and long-time measurements where more traditional methods present inferior performance.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗