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Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks: Modeling strategic behavior in human-automation interaction: Why and aid can (and should) go unused

Advances in computer and control technology offer the opportunity for task-offload aiding in human-machine systems. A task-offload aid (e.g., an autopilot, an intelligent assistant) can be selectively engaged by the human operator to dynamically delegate tasks to an automated system. Successful design and performance prediction in such systems requires knowledge of the factors influencing the strategy the operator develops and uses for managing interaction with the task-offload aid. A model is presented that shows how such strategies can be predicted as a function of three task context properties (frequency and duration of secondary tasks and costs of delaying secondary tasks) and three aid design properties (aid engagement and disengagement times, aid performance relative to human performance). Sensitivity analysis indicates how each of these contextual and design factors affect the optimal aid aid usage strategy and attainable system performance. The model is applied to understanding human-automation interaction in laboratory experiments on human supervisory control behavior. The laboratory task allowed subjects freedom to determine strategies for using an autopilot in a dynamic, multi-task environment. Modeling results suggested that many subjects may indeed have been acting appropriately by not using the autopilot in the way its designers intended. Although autopilot function was technically sound, this aid was not designed with due regard to the overall task context in which it was placed. These results demonstrate the need for additional research on how people may strategically manage their own resources, as well as those provided by automation, in an effort to keep workload and performance at acceptable levels.

Kirlik, Alex↗

Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Review of Water and Climate Change Analysis in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which electric utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) evaluate the impact of water constraints on electric generation resource portfolios and the extent to which IRPs consider the impacts of climate change to generation and loads. This white paper reviewed 30 IRPs to determine best practices with respect to analyzing and reporting on potential water-based and climate change risks within the integrated resource planning process. Best practices from electric utility IRPs are identified and additional recommendations and considerations are put forth. In recent years, thermal generating facilities have experienced challenges with water availability: a shortage of cooling water, conditions in which incoming cooling water is too warm for optimal operation, and/or water discharge temperatures exceeding permit limits. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently reported on a study that identified for the year 2030, 98.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity at risk due to water stress. Climate change effects on hydrological cycles may adjust the timing, temperature, and volume of water availability for thermal electric cooling and for hydropower generation, which could further exacerbate the frequency and duration of operational constraints. Climate change can also impact the timing and intensity of electric loads that utilities must serve, most notably for heating and cooling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Intelligent Experiments through Real-Time AI: Fast Data Processing and Autonomous Detector Control for High-Energy Nuclear Experiments

The aim of this project is to develop software and hardware for fast real-time data processing and autonomous detector control and calibration for the sPHENIX and the future EIC experiments. Below summarizes Georgia Tech team efforts in the past year: 1. We developed a real-time clustering algorithm and FPGA-based pipeline architecture for processing fired pixel data from ALPIDE sensors in sPHENIX experiments. Our Columnar Clustering Co-Design introduces a hardware-aware, stream-friendly approach that segments pixel data by column pairs using a Column Pair Clustering (CPC) strategy, followed by Cluster Stitching to merge adjacent subclusters. Implemented in Vitis HLS, the pipeline comprises five stages—read-in, subclustering, stitching, analysis, and write-out—connected by tagged HLS streams with custom end-of-event signaling for robust synchronization. We designed a pipelined dataflow model optimized for throughput, low latency, and minimal buffering, enabling scalable clustering across events of arbitrary size. Our system maintains spatial precision via center-of-mass and shape key extraction and efficiently handles edge cases such as fragmented or nested clusters. Compared against DBSCAN in both software and hardware, our approach demonstrates competitive performance under FPGA constraints. 2. We also conducted a comprehensive algorithm-to-hardware co-design of connected component analysis tailored for sPHENIX experiments, focusing on real-time, low-latency processing using FPGAs and High-Level Synthesis (HLS). Starting from a Python-based particle tracking pipeline, the team translated the core logic—graph traversal via DFS and Union-Find—into an HLS-compatible C++ model, replacing dynamic memory and recursion with static arrays and pipelined control flow. The final design includes a fully streamed and dataflow-compatible Union-Find kernel optimized across five iterations, incorporating loop pipelining, array partitioning, AXI/FIFO interface tuning, and function flattening. Experimental results show up to 14.8× speedup over the CPU baseline, reducing per-graph latency to 1.58 μs and demonstrating strong resource efficiency with only ~7k LUTs and zero BRAM usage. The design maintains functional correctness against the Python reference using a Python-based C-simulation framework and Mean Squared Error metrics. This work validates the potential of HLS-driven FPGA designs for edge-level HEP data acquisition, laying a scalable foundation for future integration with real-time detector pipelines and multi-graph processing systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Machine learning-based real-time monitoring system for smart connected worker to improve energy efficiency

Recent advances in machine learning and computer vision brought to light technologies and algorithms that serve as new opportunities for creating intelligent and efficient manufacturing systems. In this study, the real-time monitoring system of manufacturing workflow for the Smart Connected Worker (SCW) is developed for the small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), which integrates state-of-the-art machine learning techniques with the workplace scenarios of advanced manufacturing systems. Specifically, object detection and text recognition models are investigated and adopted to ameliorate the labor-intensive machine state monitoring process, while artificial neural networks are introduced to enable real-time energy disaggregation for further optimization. The developed system achieved efficient supervision and accurate information analysis in real-time for prolonged working conditions, which could effectively reduce the cost related to human labor, as well as provide an affordable solution for SMMs. The competent experiment results also demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of integrating machine learning technologies into the realm of advanced manufacturing systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Neutron Spectrometer Prospecting in the Mojave Volatiles Project Analog Field Test

We know that volatiles are sequestered at the poles of the Moon. While we have evidence of water ice and a number of other compounds based on remote sensing, the detailed distribution, and physical and chemical form are largely unknown. Additional orbital studies of lunar polar volatiles may yield further insights, but the most important next step is to use landed assets to fully characterize the volatile composition and distribution at scales of tens to hundreds of meters. To achieve this range of scales, mobility is needed. Because of the proximity of the Moon, near real-time operation of the surface assets is possible, with an associated reduction in risk and cost. This concept of operations is very different from that of rovers on Mars, and new operational approaches are required to carry out such real-time robotic exploration. The Mojave Volatiles Project (MVP) was a Moon-Mars Analog Mission Activities (MMAMA) program project aimed at (1) determining effective approaches to operating a real-time but short-duration lunar surface robotic mission, and (2) performing prospecting science in a natural setting, as a test of these approaches. Here we describe some results from the first such test, carried out in the Mojave Desert between 16 and 24 October, 2014. The test site was an alluvial fan just E of the Soda Mountains, SW of Baker, California. This site contains desert pavements, ranging from the late Pleistocene to early-Holocene in age. These pavements are undergoing dissection by the ongoing development of washes. A principal objective was to determine the hydration state of different types of desert pavement and bare ground features. The mobility element of the test was provided by the KREX-2 rover, designed and operated by the Intelligent Robotics Group at NASA Ames Research Center. The rover-borne neutron spectrometer measured the neutron albedo at both thermal and epithermal energies. Assuming uniform geochemistry and material bulk density, hydrogen as either hydroxyl/water in mineral assemblages or as moisture will significantly enhance the return of thermalized neutrons. However, in the Mojave test setting there is little uniformity, especially in bulk material density. We find that lighter toned materials (immature pavements, bar and swale, and wash materials) have lower thermal neutron flux, while mature, darker pavements with the greatest desert varnish development have higher neutron fluxes. Preliminary analysis of samples from the various terrain types in the test area indicates a prevailing moisture content of 2-3 wt% H2O. However, soil mineralogy suggests that the welldeveloped Av1 soil horizon beneath the topmost dark pavement clast layer contains the highest clay content. Structural water (including hydroxyl) in these clays may explain the enhanced neutron albedo over dark pavements. On the other hand, surface and subsurface bulk density can also play a role in neutron albedo - lower density of materials found in washes, for example, can result in a reduction in neutron flux. Analysis is ongoing.

rover-borne neutron spectrometer↗

Enabling site-specific well leakage risk estimation during geologic carbon sequestration using a modular deep-learning-based wellbore leakage model

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating net carbon emissions and growing climate concern by storing CO 2 in reservoirs. Oil and gas brownfields are an attractive option for CO 2 storage, but these sites have many historical wellbores from petroleum production and can be a potential leakage pathway for CO 2 or formation brine. Therefore, risk management of GCS operations requires an assessment of potential well leakage. Due to the high uncertainty of the system, stochastic approaches are ideal for quantifying the range of risk behaviors, but they must be computationally efficient in the face of complex physics. Here, we develop a new physics-centric deep learning wellbore model to predict the leakage of CO 2 and brine through leaky wellbores. Multi-physics numerical simulations were used to generate data sets, and physics-informed features were introduced. Neural networks were optimized with an automated searching algorithm. Feature analysis quantifies the impact of each feature on model prediction and confirms the role of physics-inspired parameters. The model shows high predictive performance across a wide range of geologic and injection conditions and well attributes. In conclusion, a case study illustrates how the model is applied to assess well leakage in GCS operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Information flow for security in control systems

This paper considers the development of information flow analyses to support resilient design and active detection of adversaries in cyber physical systems (CPS). CPS security, though well studied, suffers from fragmentation. In this paper, we consider control systems as an abstraction of CPS. Here, we use information flow analysis, a well established set of methods developed in software security, to obtain a unified framework that captures and extends results in control system security. Specifically, we propose the Kullback Liebler (KL) divergence as a causal measure of information flow, which quantifies the effect of adversarial inputs on sensor outputs. We show that the proposed measure characterizes the resilience of control systems to specific attack strategies by relating the KL divergence to optimal detection. We then relate information flows to stealthy attack scenarios where an adversary can bypass detection. Finally, this article examines active detection mechanisms where a defender intelligently manipulates control inputs or the system itself to elicit information flows from an attacker's malicious behavior. In all previous cases, we demonstrate an ability to investigate and extend existing results through the proposed information flow analyses.

Weerakkody, Sean↗

FY2020 Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Annual Progress Report

EEMS Program activities during FY 2020 focused on analytical research and large-scale modeling and simulation to understand the impacts that new mobility technologies and services will have at the vehicle-, traveler-, and overall transportation system-level. This research included the development of a multi-fidelity, end-to-end transportation system models and tools to evaluate the complex interactions among the various actors within the mobility landscape, analysis of empirical data to characterize which solutions may provide the largest benefits, and development of new control systems and algorithms that use vehicle connectivity and automation to improve the performance and efficiency of individual vehicles as well as the overall traffic system. This document presents a brief overview of the EEMS Program and documents progress and results from projects within each of the EEMS activity areas. The Computational Modeling and Simulation key activity area summarizes work within the sub-areas of (1) the SMART (Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation) Mobility Lab Consortium, (2) Artificial Intelligence, High-Performance Computing, and Data Analytics, and (3) Core Simulation and Evaluation Tools. Additionally, the program’s advanced R&D projects are summarized within (4) the Connectivity and Automation Technology key activity area. Each of the individual progress reports provide a project overview and highlights of the technical results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Neural Image Compression: Generalization, Robustness, and Spectral Biases

Recent advances in neural image compression (NIC) have resulted in models which are starting to outperform traditional codecs. While this has led to growing excitement about using these methods in real-world applications, the successful adoption of any machine learning system (including NIC) in the wild requires it to generalize (and be robust) to unseen distribution shifts at deployment time. Unfortunately, current research lacks comprehensive datasets and informative tools to evaluate and understand compression performance in real-world settings. To bridge this crucial gap, first, this paper presents a comprehensive benchmark suite to evaluate the out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of image compression methods. Specifically, we design CLIC-C and Kodak-C by introducing 15 common corruptions to popular CLIC and Kodak benchmarks. Next, we propose spectrally inspired introspection tools to gain a deeper understanding of errors introduced by image compression methods as well as their OOD performance. To this end, we carry out a detailed performance comparison of the classical codec with various variants of NIC (e.g., original, variable rate, pruned), revealing intriguing findings that challenge our current understanding of the strengths and limitations of NIC. Finally, we corroborate our empirical findings with theoretical analysis, providing an in-depth view of the OOD performance of NIC. Our benchmarks, spectral introspection tools, and findings provide a crucial bridge to the real-world adoption of NIC. We hope that our work will propel future efforts in designing more robust and generalizable NIC methods.

neural networks, Variational Autoencoder, robustne↗

Generative AI in Supply Chain Management: Applications, Challenges, and Future Directions

Supply chain management (SCM) is undergoing rapid transformation due to increasing global complexity, demand volatility, and operational disruptions. Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has emerged as a powerful paradigm capable of synthesizing data, simulating operational scenarios, and enabling adaptive decision-making across supply chain networks. This paper presents a survey of GenAI’s role in SCM, focusing on its applications in predictive analytics, autonomous logistics, and fraud detection. Unlike traditional AI systems that rely primarily on predictive analytics, GenAI models, including large language models, generative adversarial networks, and diffusion-based architectures, enable the creation of synthetic supply chain scenarios and autonomous optimization strategies. This survey provides (1) a taxonomy of GenAI techniques for supply chain applications, (2) a comparative analysis of generative AI approaches with traditional machine learning, reinforcement learning, and blockchain-based methods, and (3) a discussion of key challenges such as data privacy, interpretability, and integration with legacy enterprise systems. Furthermore, we outline open research problems and propose directions for future research toward autonomous, resilient, and sustainable AI-driven supply chains.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Markov Decision Processes for Intelligent, Risk-Informed Asset-Management Decision-Making

Advanced nuclear reactors are a promising option for aiding the world in achieving its net-zero carbon emission goals, however, there are significant challenges to attaining and maintaining economic competitiveness with other sources of electricity. To improve the economic competitiveness of advanced reactor designs, a project was initiated to explore the use of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to guide asset-management decision-making during advanced reactor operation. MDPs are a powerful tool for optimizing decision-making in complex environments and their application to advanced reactors can aid in planning maintenance and repair activities to minimize downtime and maximize generation. The described approach expands on previous work regarding the use of MDPs for operational decision-making through the direct incorporation of real-time plant information. The integral MDP analysis includes information from online component diagnostic tools and the plant’s real-time generation risk assessment (GRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which evaluate plant risk from both an economic and safety perspective. The result is an asset-management optimization framework that is based on real-time data regarding plant component status and the current best-estimate of plant risk. The paper presents an overview of the theoretical framework to incorporate the different information pathways into an integral MDP analysis, along with example analyses.

Grabaskas, David↗

The Berkeley parasitic SETI program

Parasitic programs for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), carried out concurrently with conventional radio astronomical observing programs, can be an attractive and cost-effective means of exploring the large multidimensional search space intrinsic to this effort. A microprocessor-based automated SETI acquisition system is described which searches for, and records, spectra of narrowband signals in the IF band of an observatory receiver. Data taken with this system over 35 days at the Hat Creek Radio Observatory at 1612 MHz are discussed. Out of approximately 100,000 spectra processed during this period, 4000 were identified by the system as containing narrowband signals and were recorded. Subsequent analysis indicates that over 3900 of these are due to local RF contamination. The remainder are undergoing further investigation.

Bowyer, S.↗

A 640-MHz 32-megachannel real-time polyphase-FFT spectrum analyzer

A polyphase fast Fourier transform (FFT) spectrum analyzer being designed for NASA's Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Sky Survey at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory is described. By replacing the time domain multiplicative window preprocessing with polyphase filter processing, much of the processing loss of windowed FFTs can be eliminated. Polyphase coefficient memory costs are minimized by effective use of run length compression. Finite word length effects are analyzed, producing a balanced system with 8 bit inputs, 16 bit fixed point polyphase arithmetic, and 24 bit fixed point FFT arithmetic. Fixed point renormalization midway through the computation is seen to be naturally accommodated by the matrix FFT algorithm proposed. Simulation results validate the finite word length arithmetic analysis and the renormalization technique.

Zimmerman, G. A.↗

Computational Models of Human Performance: Validation of Memory and Procedural Representation in Advanced Air/Ground Simulation

The Man-Machine Interaction Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) under joint U.S. Army and NASA cooperative is intended to assist designers of complex human/automation systems in successfully incorporating human performance capabilities and limitations into decision and action support systems. MIDAS is a computational representation of multiple human operators, selected perceptual, cognitive, and physical functions of those operators, and the physical/functional representation of the equipment with which they operate. MIDAS has been used as an integrated predictive framework for the investigation of human/machine systems, particularly in situations with high demands on the operators. We have extended the human performance models to include representation of both human operators and intelligent aiding systems in flight management, and air traffic service. The focus of this development is to predict human performance in response to aiding system developed to identify aircraft conflict and to assist in the shared authority for resolution. The demands of this application requires representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, coordinating action/intention, and cooperative scheduling of goals and action in an somewhat unpredictable world of operations. In recent applications to airborne systems development, MIDAS has demonstrated an ability to predict flight crew decision-making and procedural behavior when interacting with automated flight management systems and Air Traffic Control. In this paper, we describe two enhancements to MIDAS. The first involves the addition of working memory in the form of an articulatory buffer for verbal communication protocols and a visuo-spatial buffer for communications via digital datalink. The second enhancement is a representation of multiple operators working as a team. This enhanced model was used to predict the performance of human flight crews and their level of compliance with commercial aviation communication procedures. We show how the data produced by MIDAS compares with flight crew performance data from full mission simulations. Finally, we discuss the use of these features to study communication issues connected with aircraft-based separation assurance.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

A Transdisciplinary Review of Deep Learning Research and Its Relevance for Water Resources Scientists

Deep learning (DL), a new generation of artificial neural network research, has transformed industries, daily lives, and various scientific disciplines in recent years. DL represents significant progress in the ability of neural networks to automatically engineer problem-relevant features and capture highly complex data distributions. I argue that DL can help address several major new and old challenges facing research in water sciences such as interdisciplinarity, data discoverability, hydrologic scaling, equifinality, and needs for parameter regionalization. This review paper is intended to provide water resources scientists and hydrologists in particular with a simple technical overview, transdisciplinary progress update, and a source of inspiration about the relevance of DL to water. The review reveals that various physical and geoscientific disciplines have utilized DL to address data challenges, improve efficiency, and gain scientific insights. DL is especially suited for information extraction from image-like data and sequential data. Techniques and experiences presented in other disciplines are of high relevance to water research. Meanwhile, less noticed is that DL may also serve as a scientific exploratory tool. A new area termed AI neuroscience , where scientists interpret the decision process of deep networks and derive insights, has been born. This budding subdiscipline has demonstrated methods including correlation-based analysis, inversion of network-extracted features, reduced-order approximations by interpretable models, and attribution of network decisions to inputs. Moreover, DL can also use data to condition neurons that mimic problem-specific fundamental organizing units, thus revealing emergent behaviors of these units. Vast opportunities exist for DL to propel advances in water sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI-accelerated protein-ligand docking for SARS-CoV-2 is 100-fold faster with no significant change in detection

Protein-ligand docking is a computational method for identifying drug leads. The method is capable of narrowing a vast library of compounds down to a tractable size for downstream simulation or experimental testing and is widely used in drug discovery. While there has been progress in accelerating scoring of compounds with artificial intelligence, few works have bridged these successes back to the virtual screening community in terms of utility and forward-looking development. We demonstrate the power of high-speed ML models by scoring 1 billion molecules in under a day (50 k predictions per GPU seconds). We showcase a workflow for docking utilizing surrogate AI-based models as a pre-filter to a standard docking workflow. Our workflow is ten times faster at screening a library of compounds than the standard technique, with an error rate less than 0.01% of detecting the underlying best scoring 0.1% of compounds. Our analysis of the speedup explains that another order of magnitude speedup must come from model accuracy rather than computing speed. In order to drive another order of magnitude of acceleration, we share a benchmark dataset consisting of 200 million 3D complex structures and 2D structure scores across a consistent set of 13 million “in-stock” molecules over 15 receptors, or binding sites, across the SARS-CoV-2 proteome. We believe this is strong evidence for the community to begin focusing on improving the accuracy of surrogate models to improve the ability to screen massive compound libraries 100 × or even 1000 × faster than current techniques and reduce missing top hits. The technique outlined aims to be a fast drop-in replacement for docking for screening billion-scale molecular libraries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Seeking regularity from irregularity: unveiling the synthesis–nanomorphology relationships of heterogeneous nanomaterials using unsupervised machine learning

Nanoscale morphology of functional materials determines their chemical and physical properties. However, despite increasing use of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to directly image nanomorphology, it remains challenging to quantify the information embedded in TEM data sets, and to use nanomorphology to link synthesis and processing conditions to properties. We develop an automated, descriptor-free analysis workflow for TEM data that utilizes convolutional neural networks and unsupervised learning to quantify and classify nanomorphology, and thereby reveal synthesis–nanomorphology relationships in three different systems. While TEM records nanomorphology readily in two-dimensional (2D) images or three-dimensional (3D) tomograms, we advance the analysis of these images by identifying and applying a universal shape fingerprint function to characterize nanomorphology. After dimensionality reduction through principal component analysis, this function then serves as the input for morphology grouping through unsupervised learning. We demonstrate the wide applicability of our workflow to both 2D and 3D TEM data sets, and to both inorganic and organic nanomaterials, including tetrahedral gold nanoparticles mixed with irregularly shaped impurities, hybrid polymer-patched gold nanoprisms, and polyamide membranes with irregular and heterogeneous 3D crumple structures. In each of these systems, unsupervised nanomorphology grouping identifies both the diversity and the similarity of the nanomaterial across different synthesis conditions, revealing how synthetic parameters guide nanomorphology development. Our work opens possibilities for enhancing synthesis of nanomaterials through artificial intelligence and for understanding and controlling complex nanomorphology, both for 2D systems and in the far less explored case of 3D structures, such as those with embedded voids or hidden interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗