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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Conceptual Model and Risk Assessment of Waste Package Evolution - 15643

A generic disposal facility model was created to mirror disposal of low-level radioactive waste in a humid environment. The standard waste package used is a painted and primed carbon steel box stacked four high and placed next to one another within the disposal facility, preventing outward deformations of individual boxes. Waste is placed in the facility in sections, and as each section is filled it is covered with a layer of natural soil. It was assumed that boxes are exposed to natural precipitation rates for approximately 12 months, reduced to natural background infiltration to simulate the soil cover, and dropping to 1% of background infiltration when the facility is filled and a water-shedding interim cover is installed. It was also assumed that each box retains its structural integrity at the time of disposal, with the exception of the top box, which has its lid collapse inward from the overlying soil cover. Waste packages experience different rates of corrosion, differential amounts of infiltration, and fill with liquid at different rates based on when and where they are placed in the facility. Using historical literature and DOE site reports, calculations were made to estimate a range of waste package failure outcomes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Data Generated for a Model Scramjet Isolator Flowfield

Computational fluid dynamics is now considered to be an indispensable tool for the design and development of scramjet engine components. Unfortunately, the quantification of uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, so the degree of confidence associated with the numerical results remains exclusively with the subject matter expert that generated them. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Given the limitations of current hypersonic ground test facilities, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the hypersonics community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion system. The present effort describes a simple, relatively low cost, nonintrusive approach to uncertainty quantification that includes the basic ingredients required to handle both aleatoric (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) sources of uncertainty. The nonintrusive nature of the approach allows the computational fluid dynamicist to perform the uncertainty quantification with the flow solver treated as a "black box". Moreover, a large fraction of the process can be automated, allowing the uncertainty assessment to be readily adapted into the engineering design and development workflow. In the present work, the approach is applied to a model scramjet isolator problem where the desire is to validate turbulence closure models in the presence of uncertainty. In this context, the relevant uncertainty sources are determined and accounted for to allow the analyst to delineate turbulence model-form errors from other sources of uncertainty associated with the simulation of the facility flow.

Baurle, R. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Verification Framework for Runtime Assurance of Autonomous UAS

Runtime Assurance (RTA) is a design-time architecture for safety-critical systems where an internal monitor acts upon detecting a violation of a property. The simplex architecture is an instance of RTA, where the action taken is to hand control of the overall system to a trusted controller when an untrusted one violates a safety property. Simplex RTA is emerging as a method for allowing AI/ML and other unverified software to be integrated into safety-critical applications like aircraft. To this end, the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) and NASA have each published guidelines on the use of RTA in such systems. In the simplex RTA framework, a system has an advanced controller (AC) and a reversionary controller (RC). The system is allowed to operate with the AC until a runtime monitor detects that some property has been violated and then the RC takes over. Assuming that the sample rate of the monitor will detect improper functioning with enough time for the RC to correct the impending problem, and that the RC is trusted, the system will operate as intended. This use of the simplex RTA framework can allow for the integration of untrusted, but possibly more performant, controllers in a safe way. This paper presents a formalization of a simplex RTA framework in the Prototype Verification System (PVS) theorem prover using an embedding of differential dynamic logic (DDL) called Plaidypvs. A novel feature of this framework is that it can be instantiated at different levels of abstraction. This feature allows for the formal verification of a system with an untrusted black box component, such as an AI/ML controller. This paper does not address the many difficulties in deploying RTA in an industrial-level system. Instead, the focus is on the formal verification of the simplex RTA framework in the language of hybrid programs. Hybrid programs are programs that include both discrete and continuous dynamics and can be used to model complex cyber-physical systems. Plaidypvs is a tool that enables formalization of hybrid programs in the PVS theorem prover. Plaidypvs enables the verification of the general simplex RTA framework and then, by specializing some components of the hybrid program, verifying instances of the framework while treating the untrusted component as a black box. A selection of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) operations are shown as instances of the general RTA framework in PVS. This offers the benefit of design time verification of relevant safety properties to the system, and it also gives requirements on the sample rate of sensors that determine the time interval in which the ‘switch’ property of the RTA framework is checked.

PVS↗
DOE OSTI2016

KINETIC STUDY OF RADIATION-REACTION-LIMITED PARTICLE ACCELERATION DURING THE RELAXATION OF UNSTABLE FORCE-FREE EQUILIBRIA

Many powerful and variable gamma-ray sources, including pulsar wind nebulae, active galactic nuclei and gamma-ray bursts, seem capable of accelerating particles to gamma-ray emitting energies efficiently over very short timescales. These are likely due to the rapid dissipation of electromagnetic energy in a highly magnetized, relativistic plasma. In order to understand the generic features of such processes, we have investigated simple models based on the relaxation of unstable force-free magnetostatic equilibria. In this work, we make the connection between the corresponding plasma dynamics and the expected radiation signal, using 2D particle-in-cell simulations that self-consistently include synchrotron radiation reactions. We focus on the lowest order unstable force-free equilibrium in a 2D periodic box. We find that rapid variability, with modest apparent radiation efficiency as perceived by a fixed observer, can be produced during the evolution of the instability. The “flares” are accompanied by an increased polarization degree in the high energy band, with rapid variation in the polarization angle. Furthermore, the separation between the acceleration sites and the synchrotron radiation sites for the highest energy particles facilitates acceleration beyond the synchrotron radiation reaction limit. We also discuss the dynamical consequences of the radiation reaction, and some astrophysical applications of this model. Our current simulations with numerically tractable parameters are not yet able to reproduce the most dramatic gamma-ray flares, e.g., from the Crab Nebula. Higher magnetization studies are promising and will be carried out in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spanning the Gap From Bulk to Bin: A Novel Spectral Microphysics Method

Microphysics methods for climate models and numerical weather prediction typically track one, two, or three moments of a droplet size distribution for various categories of liquid, ice, and aerosol. Such methods rely on conversion parameters between these categories, which introduces uncertainty into predictions. While higher-fidelity options such as bin and Lagrangian schemes exist, they require too many degrees of freedom for climate modeling applications and introduce numerical challenges. Here we introduce a flexible spectral microphysics method based on collocation of basis functions. This method generalizes to a linear bulk scheme when using few basis functions and to a smoothed bin scheme with more degrees of freedom. Tested in an idealized box setting, the method improves spectral accuracy for droplet collision-coalescence and may eliminate the need for precipitation autoconversion rates required by bulk methods; furthermore, it generalizes well to multimodal distributions with less complexity than a bin method. The potential to extend this collocation representation to multiple hydrometeor classes suggests a path forward to unify liquid, ice, and aerosol microphysics in a single, flexible, computational framework for climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introducing the DREAMS Project: DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine Learning and Simulations

We introduce the DaRk mattEr and Astrophysics with Machine learning and Simulations (DREAMS) project, an innovative approach to understanding the astrophysical implications of alternative dark matter (DM) models and their effects on galaxy formation and evolution. The DREAMS project will ultimately comprise thousands of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations that simultaneously vary over DM physics, astrophysics, and cosmology in modeling a range of systems—from galaxy clusters to ultra-faint satellites. Such extensive simulation suites can provide adequate training sets for machine-learning-based analyses. This paper introduces two new cosmological hydrodynamical suites of warm dark matter (WDM), each comprising 1024 simulations generated using the arepo code. One suite consists of uniform-box simulations covering a ${(25\,{h}^{-1}\,{\rm{Mpc}})}^{3}$ volume, while the other consists of Milky Way zoom-ins with sufficient resolution to capture the properties of classical satellites. For each simulation, the WDM particle mass is varied along with the initial density field and several parameters controlling the strength of baryonic feedback within the IllustrisTNG model. We provide two examples, separately utilizing emulators and convolutional neural networks, to demonstrate how such simulation suites can be used to disentangle the effects of DM and baryonic physics on galactic properties. The DREAMS project can be extended further to include different DM models, galaxy formation physics, and astrophysical targets. In this way, it will provide an unparalleled opportunity to characterize uncertainties on predictions for small-scale observables, leading to robust predictions for testing the particle physics nature of DM on these scales.

cosmological parameters↗
NASA NTRS2020

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗
DOE OSTI2023

A taxonomy of constraints in black-box simulation-based optimization

The types of constraints encountered in black-box simulation-based optimization problems differ significantly from those addressed in nonlinear programming. Here, we introduce a characterization of constraints to address this situation. We provide formal definitions for several constraint classes and present illustrative examples in the context of the resulting taxonomy. This taxonomy, denoted KARQ, is useful for modeling and problem formulation, as well as optimization software development and deployment. It can also be used as the basis for a dialog with practitioners in moving problems to increasingly solvable branches of optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2017

Mars 2020 Mobility Actuator Thermal Testing and Model Correlation

This paper describes the thermal testing and model correlation of a mobility actuator planned for use on the Mars 2020 Rover. The mobility actuator is identical to those which have been successfully flown and operated on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover since its successful landing on Mars in August of 2012. The actuator consists of a motor, brake, and encoder paired with a four stage planetary gear box. In this thermal test, the actuator was instrumented with a number of thermocouples on both the interior and exterior of the gearbox. Heaters and a cold plate were used to generate thermal gradients across the actuator in vacuum, low pressure GN2, and low pressure CO2 environments in an effort to correlate a thermal model and develop a better understanding of how heat flows through the mechanism. This testing resulted in the successful model correlation of a simplified thermal model, and yielded important insights regarding the conductance of ball bearings and gear-to-gear contact. Ball bearing thermal conductance in a low pressure environment can be estimated by using correlations for vacuum thermal conductance along with a multiplier to account for increased gas conduction, and gear-to-gear conductance can be estimated by accounting for gas and grease conduction between two gears.

Novak, Keith↗
DOE OSTI2017

All-Atom Molecular Dynamics Study of Water–Dodecane Interface in the Presence of Octanol

In this work, classical atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were performed to investigate the structural properties of octanol at water/dodecane interface. Multiple combinations of simulation conditions and force fields were employed in order to :obtain high fidelity interfacial structure. The analysis of noncovalent interactions shows that the convergence of interfacial octanol distribution requires a simulation time scale larger than 100 ns. Finite size effect diminishes with increasing dimension of simulation box both laterally and vertically. In the largest simulated systems with vanishing finite size effect, the additive CHARMM force field shows similar interfacial aggregation behavior with the DRUDE polarizable model. Self-assembly of octanol molecules at water/oil interface is observed, expected to reduce;the free energy barrier between water phase and oil phase. This work provides an MD simulation benchmark for structural study of complex liquid/liquid interface with cosurfactant reducing interfacial tension between two immiscible phases.

Qiao, Baofu↗
NASA NTRS1976

An intense extreme-ultraviolet source in Cetus

The detection of a second EUV (100-1000 A) probable white dwarf star with the EUV telescope aboard the Apollo Soyuz mission is reported. The positional error box includes Feige 24, a binary system consisting of a very blue white dwarf and a dMe star. A grid of LTE pure-hydrogen, high-surface-gravity model atmospheres, is used, in combination with the EUV data and optical spectrophotometry, to derive the stellar parameters, yielding an effective temperature of 60,000 K, a radius of 17,000 km at 100 pc, and a luminosity of 7(d/100 pc) squared solar luminosities. The Feige 24 models appear to rule out white dwarfs with pure hydrogen atmospheres if the interstellar helium abundance and ionization are not anomalous.

Margon, B.↗
DOE OSTI2016

γ -soft Ba 146 and the role of nonaxial shapes at N ≈ 90

Low-spin states in the neutron-rich, N = 90 nuclide 146 Ba were populated following β decay of 146 Cs , with the goal of clarifying the development of deformation in barium isotopes through delineation of their nonyrast structures. Fission fragments of 146 Cs were extracted from a 1.7-Ci 252 Cf source and mass selected using the CAlifornium Rare Ion Breeder Upgrade (CARIBU) facility. Low-energy ions were deposited at the center of a box of thin β detectors, surrounded by a highly efficient high-purity Ge array. The new 146 Ba decay scheme now contains 31 excited levels extending up to ~2.5 MeV excitation energy, double what was previously known. These data are compared to predictions from the interacting boson approximation (IBA) model. It appears that the abrupt shape change found at N = 90 in Sm and Gd is much more gradual in Ba and Ce, due to an enhanced role of the γ degree of freedom.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Kinematic Link Between Boxy Bulges, Stellar Bars, and Nuclear Activity in NGC 3079 and NGC 4388

We present direct kinematic evidence for bar streaming in two active galaxies with boxy stellar bulges. The Hawaii Imaging Fabry-Perot Interferometer was used on the Canada-France-Hawaii 3.6-m telescope and the University of Hawaii 2.2-m telescope to derive the two-dimensional velocity field of the line-emitting gas in the disks of the Sc galaxy NGC 3079 and the Sb galaxy NGC 4388. In contrast to previous work based on long-slit data, the detection of the bar potential from the Fabry-Perot data does not rely on the existence of inner Lindblad resonances or strong bar-induced shocks. Simple kinematic models which approximate the intrinsic gas orbits as nonintersecting, inclined elliptical annuli that conserve angular momentum characterize the observed velocity fields. In NGC 3079, bar streaming motions with moderately eccentric orbits (e = b/a approx. 0.7) aligned along PA = 130 deg. intrinsic to the disk (PA = 97 deg. on the sky) are detected out to R(sub b) = 3.6 kpc. The orbits become increasingly circular beyond that radius (e = 1 at R(sub d) approx. = 6 kpc). The best model for NGC 4388 includes highly eccentric orbits (e approx. 0.3) for R(sub) less than or equal to 1.5 kpc which are aligned along PA = 135 deg. intrinsic to the disk (PA = 100 deg. on the sky). The observed "spiral arms" are produced by having the orbits become increasingly circular from the ends of the bar to the edge of the disk (R(sub d) approx. = 5 kpc), and the intrinsic bar PA shifting from 135 deg. to 90 deg.. Box-shaped bulges in both NGC 3079 and NGC 4388 are confirmed using new near-infrared images to reduce dust obscuration. Morphological analysis of starlight in these galaxies is combined with the gas kinematics derived from the Fabry-Perot spectra to test evolutionary models of stellar bars that involve transitory boxy bulges, and to quantify the importance of such bars in fueling active nuclei. Our data support the evolutionary bar models, but fail to prove convincingly that the stellar bars in NGC 3079 and NGC 4388 directly trigger or sustain the nuclear activity.

Veilleux, S.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Non-linear evolution of the cosmic neutrino background

We investigate the non-linear evolution of the relic cosmic neutrino background by running large box-size, high resolution N-body simulations which incorporate cold dark matter (CDM) and neutrinos as independent particle species. Our set of simulations explore the properties of neutrinos in a reference ΛCDM model with total neutrino masses between 0.05-0.60 eV in cold dark matter haloes of mass 10{sup 11}−10{sup 15} h{sup −1}M{sub s}un, over a redshift range z = 0−2. We compute the halo mass function and show that it is reasonably well fitted by the Sheth-Tormen formula, once the neutrino contribution to the total matter is removed. More importantly, we focus on the CDM and neutrino properties of the density and peculiar velocity fields in the cosmological volume, inside and in the outskirts of virialized haloes. The dynamical state of the neutrino particles depends strongly on their momentum: whereas neutrinos in the low velocity tail behave similarly to CDM particles, neutrinos in the high velocity tail are not affected by the clustering of the underlying CDM component. We find that the neutrino (linear) unperturbed momentum distribution is modified and mass and redshift dependent deviations from the expected Fermi-Dirac distribution are in place both in the cosmological volume and inside haloes. The neutrino density profiles around virialized haloes have been carefully investigated and a simple fitting formula is provided. The neutrino profile, unlike the cold dark matter one, is found to be cored with core size and central density that depend on the neutrino mass, redshift and mass of the halo, for halos of masses larger than ∼ 10{sup 13.5}h{sup −1}M{sub s}un. For lower masses the neutrino profile is best fitted by a simple power-law relation in the range probed by the simulations. The results we obtain are numerically converged in terms of neutrino profiles at the 10% level for scales above ∼ 200 h{sup −1}kpc at z = 0, and are stable with respect to box-size and starting redshift of the simulation. Our findings are particularly important in view of upcoming large-scale structure surveys, like Euclid, that are expected to probe the non-linear regime at the percent level with lensing and clustering observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Role of shielding in modulating the effects of solar particle events: Monte Carlo calculation of absorbed dose and DNA complex lesions in different organs

Distributions of absorbed dose and DNA clustered damage yields in various organs and tissues following the October 1989 solar particle event (SPE) were calculated by coupling the FLUKA Monte Carlo transport code with two anthropomorphic phantoms (a mathematical model and a voxel model), with the main aim of quantifying the role of the shielding features in modulating organ doses. The phantoms, which were assumed to be in deep space, were inserted into a shielding box of variable thickness and material and were irradiated with the proton spectra of the October 1989 event. Average numbers of DNA lesions per cell in different organs were calculated by adopting a technique already tested in previous works, consisting of integrating into "condensed-history" Monte Carlo transport codes--such as FLUKA--yields of radiobiological damage, either calculated with "event-by-event" track structure simulations, or taken from experimental works available in the literature. More specifically, the yields of "Complex Lesions" (or "CL", defined and calculated as a clustered DNA damage in a previous work) per unit dose and DNA mass (CL Gy-1 Da-1) due to the various beam components, including those derived from nuclear interactions with the shielding and the human body, were integrated in FLUKA. This provided spatial distributions of CL/cell yields in different organs, as well as distributions of absorbed doses. The contributions of primary protons and secondary hadrons were calculated separately, and the simulations were repeated for values of Al shielding thickness ranging between 1 and 20 g/cm2. Slight differences were found between the two phantom types. Skin and eye lenses were found to receive larger doses with respect to internal organs; however, shielding was more effective for skin and lenses. Secondary particles arising from nuclear interactions were found to have a minor role, although their relative contribution was found to be larger for the Complex Lesions than for the absorbed dose, due to their higher LET and thus higher biological effectiveness. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modeling sequential context effects in diagnostic interpretation of screening mammograms

Prior research has shown that physicians’ medical decisions can be influenced by sequential context, particularly in cases where successive stimuli exhibit similar characteristics when analyzing medical images. This type of systematic error is known to psychophysicists as sequential context effect as it indicates that judgments are influenced by features of and decisions about the preceding case in the sequence of examined cases, rather than being based solely on the peculiarities unique to the present case. We determine if radiologists experience some form of context bias, using screening mammography as the use case. To this end, we explore correlations between previous perceptual behavior and diagnostic decisions and current decisions. We hypothesize that a radiologist’s visual search pattern and diagnostic decisions in previous cases are predictive of the radiologist’s current diagnostic decisions. To test our hypothesis, we tasked 10 radiologists of varied experience to conduct blind reviews of 100 four-view screening mammograms. Eye-tracking data and diagnostic decisions were collected from each radiologist under conditions mimicking clinical practice. Perceptual behavior was quantified using the fractal dimension of gaze scanpath, which was computed using the Minkowski–Bouligand box-counting method. To test the effect of previous behavior and decisions, we conducted a multifactor fixed-effects ANOVA. Further, to examine the predictive value of previous perceptual behavior and decisions, we trained and evaluated a predictive model for radiologists’ current diagnostic decisions. ANOVA tests showed that previous visual behavior, characterized by fractal analysis, previous diagnostic decisions, and image characteristics of previous cases are significant predictors of current diagnostic decisions. Additionally, predictive modeling of diagnostic decisions showed an overall improvement in prediction error when the model is trained on additional information about previous perceptual behavior and diagnostic decisions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Individualized Survival Predictions From Random Survival Forests and Multistate Models in the Presence of Missing Data: A Case Study of Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

Background: In recent years, interest in prognostic calculators for predicting patient health outcomes has grown with the popularity of personalized medicine. These calculators, which can inform treatment decisions, employ many different methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Methods: We present a comparison of a multistate model (MSM) and a random survival forest (RSF) through a case study of prognostic predictions for patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. The MSM is highly structured and takes into account some aspects of the clinical context and knowledge about oropharyngeal cancer, while the RSF can be thought of as a black-box non-parametric approach. Key in this comparison are the high rate of missing values within these data and the different approaches used by the MSM and RSF to handle missingness. Results: We compare the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of survival probabilities predicted by both approaches and use simulation studies to better understand how predictive accuracy is influenced by the approach to (1) handling missing data and (2) modeling structural/disease progression information present in the data. We conclude that both approaches have similar predictive accuracy, with a slight advantage going to the MSM. Conclusions: Although the MSM shows slightly better predictive ability than the RSF, consideration of other differences are key when selecting the best approach for addressing a specific research question. These key differences include the methods’ ability to incorporate domain knowledge, and their ability to handle missing data as well as their interpretability, and ease of implementation. Ultimately, selecting the statistical method that has the most potential to aid in clinical decisions requires thoughtful consideration of the specific goals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

An optimization model for collection, haul, transfer, treatment and disposal of infectious medical waste: Application to a Greek region

Highlights: • We developed an optimization model to minimize cost of infectious waste management. •Two different software were used for model solution. • Model optimizes locations and capacities of treatment plants and transfer stations. • The higher percentage of total cost was due to construction of the treatment plant. • Sensitivity analysis with respect to fuel cost and waste production was conducted. - Abstract: The objective of this work was to develop an optimization model to minimize the cost of a collection, haul, transfer, treatment and disposal system for infectious medical waste (IMW). The model calculates the optimum locations of the treatment facilities and transfer stations, their design capacities (t/d), the number and capacities of all waste collection, transport and transfer vehicles and their optimum transport path and the minimum IMW management system cost. Waste production nodes (hospitals, healthcare centers, peripheral health offices, private clinics and physicians in private practice) and their IMW production rates were specified and used as model inputs. The candidate locations of the treatment facilities, transfer stations and sanitary landfills were designated, using a GIS-based methodology. Specifically, Mapinfo software with exclusion criteria for non-appropriate areas was used for siting candidate locations for the construction of the treatment plant and calculating the distance and travel time of all possible vehicle routes. The objective function was a non-linear equation, which minimized the total collection, transport, treatment and disposal cost. Total cost comprised capital and operation costs for: (1) treatment plant, (2) waste transfer stations, (3) waste transport and transfer vehicles and (4) waste collection bins and hospital boxes. Binary variables were used to decide whether a treatment plant and/or a transfer station should be constructed and whether a collection route between two or more nodes should be followed. Microsoft excel software was used as installation platform of the optimization model. For the execution of the optimization routine, two completely different software were used and the results were compared, thus, resulting in higher reliability and validity of the results. The first software was Evolver, which is based on the use of genetic algorithms. The second one was Crystal Ball, which is based on Monte Carlo simulation. The model was applied to the Region of East Macedonia – Thrace in Greece. The optimum solution resulted in one treatment plant located in the sanitary landfill area of Chrysoupolis, required no transfer stations and had a total management cost of 38,800 €/month or 809 €/t. If a treatment plant is sited in the most eastern part of the Region, i.e., the industrial area of Alexandroupolis, the optimum solution would result in a transfer station of 23 m{sup 3}, located near Kavala General Hospital, and a total cost of 39,800 €/month or 831 €/t. A sensitivity analysis was conducted and two alternative scenarios were optimized. In the first scenario, a 15% rise in fuel cost and in the second scenario a 25% rise in IMW production were considered. At the end, a cost calculation in €/t/km for every type of vehicle used for haul and transfer was conducted. Also, the cost of the whole system was itemized and calculated in €/t/km and €/t. The results showed that the higher percentage of the total cost was due to the construction of the treatment plant.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗