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DOE OSTI2019

Evaluating Optimization Strategies for Engine Simulations Using Machine Learning Emulators

This work evaluates different optimization algorithms for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of engine combustion. Due to the computational expense of CFD simulations, emulators built with machine learning algorithms were used as surrogates for the optimizers. Two types of emulators were used: a Gaussian process (GP) and a weighted variety of machine learning methods called SuperLearner (SL). The emulators were trained using a dataset of 2048 CFD simulations that were run concurrently on a supercomputer. The design of experiments (DOE) for the CFD runs was obtained by perturbing nine input parameters using a Monte-Carlo method. The CFD simulations were of a heavy duty engine running with a low octane gasoline-like fuel at a partially premixed compression ignition mode. Ten optimization algorithms were tested, including types typically used in research applications. Each optimizer was allowed 800 function evaluations and was randomly tested 100 times. The optimizers were evaluated for the median, minimum, and maximum merits obtained in the 100 attempts. Some optimizers required more sequential evaluations, thereby resulting in longer wall clock times to reach an optimum. The best performing optimization methods were particle swarm optimization (PSO), differential evolution (DE), GENOUD (an evolutionary algorithm), and micro-genetic algorithm (GA). These methods found a high median optimum as well as a reasonable minimum optimum of the 100 trials. Moreover, all of these methods were able to operate with less than 100 successive iterations, which reduced the wall clock time required in practice. Two methods were found to be effective but required a much larger number of successive iterations: the DIRECT and MALSCHAINS algorithms. A random search method that completed in a single iteration performed poorly in finding optimum designs but was included to illustrate the limitation of highly concurrent search methods. The last three methods, Nelder–Mead, bound optimization by quadratic approximation (BOBYQA), and constrained optimization by linear approximation (COBYLA), did not perform as well.

Probst, Daniel M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

DeepSurveySim: Simulation Software and Benchmark Challenges for Astronomical Observation Scheduling

Modern astronomical surveys have multiple competing scientific goals. Optimizing the observation schedule for these goals presents significant computational and theoretical challenges, and state-of-the-art methods rely on expensive human inspection of simulated telescope schedules. Automated methods, such as reinforcement learning, have recently been explored to accelerate scheduling. However, there do not yet exist benchmark data sets or user-friendly software frameworks for testing and comparing these methods. We present DeepSurveySim -- a high-fidelity and flexible simulation tool for use in telescope scheduling. DeepSurveySim provides methods for tracking and approximating sky conditions for a set of observations from a user-supplied telescope configuration. We envision this tool being used to produce benchmark data sets and for evaluating the efficacy of ground-based telescope scheduling algorithms, particularly for machine learning algorithms that would suffer in efficacy if limited to real data for training.We introduce three example survey configurations and related code implementations as benchmark problems that can be simulated with DeepSurveySim.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning in the Context of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

The integration of machine learning (ML) with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) has revolutionized the analytical capabilities of LIBS. The combi-nation of both methods enables more accurate and efficient data analysis. While LIBS itself is a powerful technique for elemental analysis, the vast amount of spectral data it generates can be hard to interpret. Machine learning addresses these challenges by leveraging algorithms that can learn from data, identify patterns, and make predictions without explicit programming for the interpretation of each specific task. In LIBS application, ML techniques are used to enhance various analytical processes. For example, ML algorithms can classify materials based on their spectral fingerprints, predict the concentration of elements in a sample, and identify underlying patterns within complex datasets. Here, this application improves the precision of LIBS analyses while significantly reducing the time required for data processing and interpretation. In this chapter, the fundamental concepts of ML will be discussed first. Following this, the process of data splitting and the importance of feature selection will be examined. Several machine learning methods will then be closely examined, exploring how each can benefit LIBS analysis and highlighting their respective advantages and shortcomings. This structured approach will provide a comprehensive understanding of the integration of ML in the context of LIBS analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emulation Modeling for Development of Cyber-Defense Capabilities for Satellite Systems

The objective of this project was to develop a novel capability to generate synthetic data sets for the purpose of training Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for the detection of malicious activities on satellite systems. The approach experimented with was to a) generate sparse data sets using emulation modeling and b) enlarge the sparse data using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). We based our emulation modeling on the Open Source NASA Operational Simulator for Small Satellites (NOS3) developed by the Katherine Johnson Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) program in West Virginia. Significant new capabilities on NOS3 had to be developed for our data set generation needs. To expand these data sets for the purpose of training ML, we experimented with a) Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) and b) Wasserstein-GANs (WGAN-GP).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous and dynamic precursor selection for solid-state materials synthesis

Abstract Solid-state synthesis plays an important role in the development of new materials and technologies. While in situ characterization and ab-initio computations have advanced our understanding of materials synthesis, experiments targeting new compounds often still require many different precursors and conditions to be tested. Here we introduce an algorithm (ARROWS 3 ) designed to automate the selection of optimal precursors for solid-state materials synthesis. This algorithm actively learns from experimental outcomes to determine which precursors lead to unfavorable reactions that form highly stable intermediates, preventing the target material’s formation. Based on this information, ARROWS 3 proposes new experiments using precursors it predicts to avoid such intermediates, thereby retaining a larger thermodynamic driving force to form the target. We validate this approach on three experimental datasets, containing results from over 200 synthesis procedures. In comparison to black-box optimization, ARROWS 3 identifies effective precursor sets for each target while requiring substantially fewer experimental iterations. These findings highlight the importance of domain knowledge in optimization algorithms for materials synthesis, which are critical for the development of fully autonomous research platforms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Informing nuclear physics via machine learning methods with differential and integral experiments

Information from differential nuclear-physics experiments and theory is often too uncertain to accurately define nuclear-physics observables such as cross sections or energy spectra. Integral experimental data, representing the applications of these observables, are often more precise but depend simultaneously on too many of them to unambiguously identify issues in the observable with human expert analysis alone. Here, we explore how we can leverage physics knowledge gained from differential experimental data, nuclear theory, integral experiments, and neutron-transport calculations to better understand nuclear-physics observables in the context of the application area represented by integral experiments. We support this task with machine-learning methods to discern trends in a large amount of convoluted data. Differential and integral information was used in an analysis augmented by the random forest and the Shapley additive explanations metric. We chose as an application area one that is represented by criticality measurements and pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra. We show one representative example ( 241 Pu fission observables) where the combination of differential and integral information allowed to resolve issues in data representing these observables. As a starting point, the machine learning (ML) algorithms highlighted several observables as leading potentially to bias in simulating integral experiments. Differential information, paired with sensitivity to integral quantities, allowed us then to pinpoint one specific observable ( 241 Pu fission cross section) as the main driver of bias. The comparison to integral experiments, on the other hand, allowed us to indicate a likely reliable experiment among several discrepant ones for this observables. In other cases (e.g., 239 Pu observables), we were not able to resolve the confounding introduced by integral experiments but instead highlighted the need for targeted new experiments and theory developments to better constrain the nuclear-physics space for the application area represented by integral experiments. We were able to combine information from differential experimental data, nuclear-physics theory, integral experiments, and neutron-transport simulations of the latter experiments with the help of the random forest algorithm and expert judgment. This combination of knowledge allows to improve our description of nuclear-physics observables as applied to a particular application area.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Kernel Support Vector Machine based Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Pumps in Nuclear Power Plants

Multi-Kernel Support Vector Machine (MK-SVM) is a machine learning classification algorithm that can assist in the development of predictive maintenance strategies for nuclear power plant systems. Predictive maintenance can alleviate maintenance costs and enhance reliability of plant systems. In this work, MK-SVM is utilized for determining the health of the circulating water system (CWS) in a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance of Compact Pulsed Thermal Imaging System for In-Service Applications. Pulsed thermal tomography nondestructive examination of additively manufactured reactor materials and components

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex topology nuclear reactor parts from high-strength corrosion resistance alloys, such as stainless steel and Inconel. AM of metallic structures for nuclear energy applications is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, which has the capability of melting metallic powder and net shaping the structures with relatively high precision. Some of the challenges with using LPBF method for nuclear manufacturing include the possibility of introducing pores into metallic structures. Integrity of AM structures needs to be evaluated nondestructively because material flaws could lead to premature failures due to creep in high temperature nuclear reactor environment. Currently, there exist limited capabilities to evaluate actual AM structures nondestructively. Pulsed Thermography (PT) imaging provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation (NDE) of sub-surface defects in arbitrary size structures. The PT method is based on recording material surface temperature transients with infrared (IR) camera following thermal pulse delivered on material surface with flash light. The PT method has advantages for NDE of actual AM structures because the method involves one-sided non-contact measurements and fast processing of large sample areas captured in one image. The data cube of PT measurements consists of surface temperature taken at sequential time intervals T(x,y,t). Material defects can be detected either by analyzing the thermograms T(x,y,t) data cube, or by using thermal tomography (TT) algorithm to obtain 3D spatial reconstruction of thermal effusivity e(x,y,z). To reduce the cost and enable in-service NDE in spatially constrained environment, it is highly desirable to develop PT with compact and inexpensive IR camera. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a compact PT system can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. However, data cube obtained with PT based on compact IR camera suffers from strong thermal noises and loss of features due to relatively low sampling rate. In this report we describe two unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for enhancement of PT images obtained with compact IR camera. In one approach, we introduce Sparse Coding Discrete Cosine Transform (SC/DCT) algorithm to remove additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) from spatial thermal effusivity reconstructions. In another approach we introduce a Spatial Temporal Denoised Thermal Source Separation (STDTSS) ML algorithm to process thermograms. The STDTSS algorithm consists of spatial and temporal denoising using Gaussian and Savitzky–Golay filtering, followed by the matrix decomposition using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to automatically detect flaws. In the work described in this report, we constructed a compact PT system using a relatively small and low-cost FLIR A65 camera, consisting on uncooled microbolometer detector. Performance of SC/DCT algorithm was demonstrated on enhancing TT images of Inconel 718 AM plate. Performance of the STDTSS methods was investigated using thermography data obtained from imaging stainless steel 316L specimens produced with LPBF method with imprinted calibrated porosity defects.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Machine learnt bond order potential to model metal–organic (Co–C) heterostructures

A fundamental understanding of the inter-relationships between structure, morphology, atomic scale dynamics, chemistry, and physical properties of mixed metallic-covalent systems is essential to design novel functional materials for applications in flexible nano-electronics, energy storage and catalysis. To achieve such knowledge, it is imperative to develop robust and computationally efficient atomistic models that describe atomic interactions accurately within a single framework. Here, we present a unified Tersoff–Brenner type bond order potential (BOP) for a Co–C system, trained against lattice parameters, cohesive energies, equation of state, and elastic constants of different crystalline phases of cobalt as well as orthorhombic Co2C derived from density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The independent BOP parameters are determined using a combination of supervised machine learning (genetic algorithms) and local minimization via the simplex method. Our newly developed BOP accurately describes the structural, thermodynamic, mechanical, and surface properties of both the elemental components as well as the carbide phases, in excellent accordance with DFT calculations and experiments. Using our machine-learnt BOP potential, we performed large-scale molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the effect of metal/carbon concentration on the structure and mechanical properties of porous architectures obtained via self-assembly of cobalt nanoparticles and fullerene molecules. Such porous structures have implications in flexible electronics, where materials with high electrical conductivity and low elastic stiffness are desired. Using unsupervised machine learning (clustering), we identify the pore structure, pore-distribution, and metallic conduction pathways in self-assembled structures at different C/Co ratios. We find that as the C/Co ratio increases, the connectivity between the Co nanoparticles becomes limited, likely resulting in low electrical conductivity; on the other hand, such C-rich hybrid structures are highly flexible (i.e., low stiffness). The BOP model developed in this work is a valuable tool to investigate atomic scale processes, structure–property relationships, and temperature/pressure response of Co–C systems, as well as design organic–inorganic hybrid structures with a desired set of properties.

Narayanan, Badri↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of Anomalies in Gamma Background Radiation Data with K-Means and Self-Organizing Map Clustering Algorithms (Consortium on Nuclear Security Technologies (CONNECT) Q1 Report)

Environmental screening of gamma radiation consists of detecting weak nuisance and anomaly signal in the presence of strong and highly varying background. In a typical scenario, a mobile detector-spectrometer continuously measures gamma radiation spectra in short, e.g., one-second, signal acquisition intervals. The measurement data is a 2D matrix, where one dimension is gamma ray energy, and the other dimension is the number of measurements or total time. In principle, gamma radiation sources can be detected and identified from the measured data by their unique spectral lines. Detecting sources from data measured in a search scenario is difficult due to the highly varying background because of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), and low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of spectral signal measured during one-second acquisition intervals. The objective of this work is to explore unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for detection and identification of weak nuisances and anomalies events in the presence of highly fluctuating background. The challenge is that spectral lines of isotopes are difficult to observe in one-second measurements. Averaging over the entire measurement campaign data set reveals spectral lines of most common background isotopes. Spectral lines of orphan sources, which might appear only in a few measurements during the campaign, will be washed out if averaging is performed over the entire measurement data set. The approach we have explored consists of extracting one-second measurements containing weak spectral features through data clustering. Averaging one-second spectra in a cluster should reveal the presence of anomaly sources. We created two ML models using K-means clustering and Neural Network Self-organizing Map (SOM). Performance of these ML models was benchmarked using search data. One data set contained 137 Cs source, and another dataset contained 131 I source.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Real-time Intrusion Detection for High-bandwidth Research Networks using Unsupervised Deep Learning

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks across distributed collaboration sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience attacks. However, monitoring traffic in such high-bandwidth network environments is challenging with conventional deep packet inspection (DPI)- based network intrusion detection systems (NIDS). Recently, machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown potential in detecting anomalous patterns with better generalizability and faster speed. Compared to the general purpose networks, traffic movement in research network is less volatile and more likely to benefit from the ML-based anomaly analysis. We present ThunderSecure, an efficient AI-powered system for detecting anomalies in 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements a high-throughput packet processing infrastructure using multi-cores and GPUs. It takes time-series statistics from a variety of network measurements and uses 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to explore both spatial and temporal dependencies in network data stream. Patterns of science data traffic are learned with a one-class neural network, which blends an Adversarial Autoencoder (AAE) with Gaussian mixture density estimation. Testing traffic flows exhibiting significant deviations from the learned baseline of normality are marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets recorded from a 100G research network at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ML work in the area of network anomaly detection that has been validated on such extreme scale datasets. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic that are captured long after the training and make nearly certain detection on those with anomalous flows injected, even in the case when the anomaly-to-normal mixing ratio is 0.1%.

Gong, Qian↗

DOE OSTI2021

Variational preparation of the thermofield double state of the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model

Here, we provide an algorithm for preparing the thermofield double (TFD) state of the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model without the need for an auxiliary bath. Following previous work, the TFD can be cast as the approximate ground state of a Hamiltonian, H TFD . Using variational quantum circuits, we propose and implement a gradient-based algorithm for learning parameters that find this ground state, an application of the variational quantum eigensolver. Concretely, we find shallow quantum circuits that prepare the ground state of H TFD for the q = 4 SYK model for N = 8 Majoranas per side. For N = 12, we achieve a variational energy within 1% of the true ground-state energy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of gas hydrate saturation using machine learning and optimal set of well-logs

We report resistivity and acoustic logs are widely used to estimate gas hydrate saturation in various sedimentary systems using one of the two popular methods ((1) acoustic velocity and (2) electrical resistivity), but the limitations of these two methods are often overlooked, which include (i) well-specific calibration of empirical exponents in the electrical resistivity method, (ii) assumption of known pore morphology for gas hydrates in the acoustic velocity method, and (iii) presence of unknown mineralogy and bulk modulus terms in the acoustic velocity method. NMR-density porosity-derived gas hydrate saturation based on the analysis of the transverse magnetization relaxation time (T2) is considered the most precise method, but acquisition of NMR-based logs is limited at relatively recent drilled sites; additionally, its use in conventional oil and gas reservoirs is not that common due to higher cost and operational deployment limitations associated with acquiring NMR well-logs. This study proposes a new method that predicts gas hydrate saturation (S h ) for any well using porosity, bulk density, and compressional wave (P wave) velocity well-logs with neural network (or stochastic gradient descent regression) without any well-specific calibration and/or other aforementioned shortcomings of the existing methods. The method is developed by examining the underlying dependency between S h and different combinations of well-logs, chosen from 6 routine logs, with 12 different machine learning (ML) algorithms. The accuracy of the proposed method in predicting S h is ~ 84%, which is better than the accuracy of seismic and electrical resistivity methods (≤ 75%) per the results reported by three different studies. The robustness of the method in the specific case of permafrost-associated gas hydrates is demonstrated with well-log data from two wells drilled on the Alaska North Slope.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting Transformers for Jet Tagging

Machine learning (ML) algorithms, particularly attention-based transformer models, have become indispensable for analyzing the vast data generated by particle physics experiments like ATLAS and CMS at the CERN LHC. Particle Transformer (ParT), a state-of-the-art model, leverages particle-level attention to improve jet-tagging tasks, which are critical for identifying particles resulting from proton collisions. This study focuses on interpreting ParT by analyzing attention heat maps and particle-pair correlations on the $\eta$-$\phi$ plane, revealing a binary attention pattern where each particle attends to at most one other particle. At the same time, we observe that ParT shows varying focus on important particles and subjets depending on decay, indicating that the model learns traditional jet substructure observables. These insights enhance our understanding of the model's internal workings and learning process, offering potential avenues for improving the efficiency of transformer architectures in future high-energy physics applications.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Structural characterization of an intrinsically disordered protein complex using integrated small-angle neutron scattering and computing

Characterizing structural ensembles of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) and intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) of proteins is essential for studying structure–function relationships. Due to the different neutron scattering lengths of hydrogen and deuterium, selective labeling and contrast matching in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) becomes an effective tool to study dynamic structures of disordered systems. However, experimental timescales typically capture measurements averaged over multiple conformations, leaving complex SANS data for disentanglement. We hereby demonstrate an integrated method to elucidate the structural ensemble of a complex formed by two IDRs. We use data from both full contrast and contrast matching with residue-specific deuterium labeling SANS experiments, microsecond all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with four molecular mechanics force fields, and an autoencoder-based deep learning (DL) algorithm. From our combined approach, we show that selective deuteration provides additional information that helps characterize structural ensembles. We find that among the four force fields, a99SB-disp and CHARMM36m show the strongest agreement with SANS and NMR experiments. In addition, our DL algorithm not only complements conventional structural analysis methods but also successfully differentiates NMR and MD structures which are indistinguishable on the free energy surface. Finally, we present an ensemble that describes experimental SANS and NMR data better than MD ensembles generated by one single force field and reveal three clusters of distinct conformations. Our results demonstrate a new integrated approach for characterizing structural ensembles of IDPs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗