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DOE OSTI2014

Spatial recurrence analysis: A sensitive and fast detection tool in digital mammography

Efficient diagnostics of breast cancer requires fast digital mammographic image processing. Many breast lesions, both benign and malignant, are barely visible to the untrained eye and requires accurate and reliable methods of image processing. We propose a new method of digital mammographic image analysis that meets both needs. It uses the concept of spatial recurrence as the basis of a spatial recurrence quantification analysis, which is the spatial extension of the well-known time recurrence analysis. The recurrence-based quantifiers are able to evidence breast lesions in a way as good as the best standard image processing methods available, but with a better control over the spurious fragments in the image.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reconstructed lung doses for the million person study cohort of 26,650 Tennessee Eastman corporation workers employed between 1942 and 1947

Abstract Tennessee Eastman Corporation workers were exposed to uranium dust resulting in high-linear energy transfer (LET) irradiation to lung tissue. In this work, radiation lung doses were reconstructed for 26 650 men and women working at the plant between 1942 and 1947. Site air monitoring data of uranium concentrations and payroll records were used to determine the daily inhaled activities and annualized lung doses. Variations in the activity median aerodynamic diameter of the uranium dust, the solubility of particulate matter in the lungs and the sex-specific breathing rate were investigated as part of a sensitivity analysis. Male and female mean lung doses of 18.9 and 32.7 mGy, respectively, from high-LET alpha irradiation, and there was general agreement with evaluations from previously published epidemiological studies. Annual lung dose estimates and sensitivity analysis for the 26 650 workers in the TEC cohort have been archived on the United States Department of Energy Comprehensive Epidemiologic Data Resource.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2010

Sensitivity of VIIRS Polarization Measurements

The design of an optical system typically involves a sensitivity analysis where the various lens parameters, such as lens spacing and curvatures, to name two parameters, are (slightly) varied to see what, if any, effect this has on the performance and to establish manufacturing tolerances. A sinular analysis was performed for the VIIRS instruments polarization measurements to see how real world departures from perfectly linearly polarized light entering VIIRS effects the polarization measurement. The methodology and a few of the results of this polarization sensitivity analysis are presented and applied to the construction of a single polarizer which will cover the VIIRS VIS/NIR spectral range. Keywords: VIIRS, polarization, ray, trace; polarizers, Bolder Vision, MOXTEK

Waluschka, Eugene↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Linearized Frequency-Domain Gust Analysis and Adjoint-Based Sensitivities

Gust analysis is added to a linearized frequency-domain method in FUN3D, a NASA computational fluid dynamics solver. The method linearizes about a nonlinear static equilibrium condition and is therefore appropriate for problems with small perturbations such as transonic stochastic gust analysis. In addition to the gust analysis, adjoint-based sensitivities of stochastic gust constraints are implemented for multidisciplinary design optimization. The linearized frequency-domain gust model and adjoint-based sensitivities are described and verified. The method is applied to an optimization for mass minimization of the AGARD 445.6 wing subject to a stochastic gust constraint limiting the displacement of the wing tip.

Aeroelasticity↗

DOE OSTI2015

Advanced Numerical Model for Irradiated Concrete

In this report, we establish a numerical model for concrete exposed to irradiation to address these three critical points. The model accounts for creep in the cement paste and its coupling with damage, temperature and relative humidity. The shift in failure mode with the loading rate is also properly represented. The numerical model for creep has been validated and calibrated against different experiments in the literature [Wittmann, 1970, Le Roy, 1995]. Results from a simplified model are shown to showcase the ability of numerical homogenization to simulate irradiation effects in concrete. In future works, the complete model will be applied to the analysis of the irradiation experiments of Elleuch et al. [1972] and Kelly et al. [1969]. This requires a careful examination of the experimental environmental conditions as in both cases certain critical information are missing, including the relative humidity history. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted to provide lower and upper bounds of the concrete expansion under irradiation, and check if the scatter in the simulated results matches the one found in experiments. The numerical and experimental results will be compared in terms of expansion and loss of mechanical stiffness and strength. Both effects should be captured accordingly by the model to validate it. Once the model has been validated on these two experiments, it can be applied to simulate concrete from nuclear power plants. To do so, the materials used in these concrete must be as well characterized as possible. The main parameters required are the mechanical properties of each constituent in the concrete (aggregates, cement paste), namely the elastic modulus, the creep properties, the tensile and compressive strength, the thermal expansion coefficient, and the drying shrinkage. These can be either measured experimentally, estimated from the initial composition in the case of cement paste, or back-calculated from mechanical tests on concrete. If some are unknown, a sensitivity analysis must be carried out to provide lower and upper bounds of the material behaviour. Finally, the model can be used as a basis to formulate a macroscopic material model for concrete subject to irradiation, which later can be used in structural analyses to estimate the structural impact of irradiation on nuclear power plants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Verification of Reduced Order Modeling Based Uncertainty/Sensitivity Estimator (ROMUSE)

This article presents a number of verification case studies for a recently developed sensitivity/uncertainty code package. The code package, ROMUSE (Reduced Order Modeling based Uncertainty/Sensitivity Estimator) is an effort to provide an analysis tool to be used in conjunction with reactor core simulators, in particular the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) core simulator. ROMUSE has been written in C++ and is currently capable of performing various types of parameter perturbations and associated sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, surrogate model construction and subspace analysis. The current version 2.0 has the capability to interface with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) code, which gives ROMUSE access to the various algorithms implemented within DAKOTA, most importantly model calibration. The verification study is performed via two basic problems and two reactor physics models. The first problem is used to verify the ROMUSE single physics gradient-based range finding algorithm capability using an abstract quadratic model. The second problem is the Brusselator problem, which is a coupled problem representative of multi-physics problems. This problem is used to test the capability of constructing surrogates via ROMUSE-DAKOTA. Finally, light water reactor pin cell and sodium-cooled fast reactor fuel assembly problems are simulated via SCALE 6.1 to test ROMUSE capability for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis purposes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Pressure Laminar Flame Speeds and Markstein Lengths of Syngas Flames Diluted in Carbon Dioxide and Helium

Abstract New laminar flame speed and burned-gas Markstein length data for H2–CO–O2–CO2–He mixtures have been measured from spherically expanding flames. Experiments were conducted at 10 atm and room temperature for H2:CO ratios ranging from 2:1 to 1:4 and for overall CO2 mole fractions from 0% to 30%. CO2 dilution had little effect on Markstein length, but CO2 dilutions of 10%, 20%, and 30% caused average reductions in flame speed of 47%, 73%, and 89%, respectively, regardless of H2:CO ratio. The study was designed to isolate the dilution effect of CO2 on flame speed, and a detailed analysis using the FCO2 method was used to show that the chemical-kinetic participation of CO2 was responsible for up to 20% of the reduction in flame speed. Hence, the majority (80% or more) of the reduction in flame speed due to CO2 is from the thermal effect. Accurate flame speed predictions were produced by five different chemical kinetics mechanisms for most conditions, with the slight exception of high-CO, high-CO2 mixtures. A thorough sensitivity analysis highlighted the larger effect of CO2 dilution on the important kinetics reactions than the effect of changing H2:CO. Sensitivity analysis also showed that the chain branching reaction H2O + O ⇌ OH + OH could be modified (albeit beyond its uncertainty) to achieve more accurate flame speed predictions, but also indicated that further improvement of flame speed modeling would require changes to many lesser reactions.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1992

Space transportation architecture: Reliability sensitivities

A sensitivity analysis is given of the benefits and drawbacks associated with a proposed Earth to orbit vehicle architecture. The architecture represents a fleet of six vehicles (two existing, four proposed) that would be responsible for performing various missions as mandated by NASA and the U.S. Air Force. Each vehicle has a prescribed flight rate per year for a period of 31 years. By exposing this fleet of vehicles to a probabilistic environment where the fleet experiences failures, downtimes, setbacks, etc., the analysis involves determining the resiliency and costs associated with the fleet of specific vehicle/subsystem reliabilities. The resources required were actual observed data on the failures and downtimes associated with existing vehicles, data based on engineering judgement for proposed vehicles, and the development of a sensitivity analysis program.

Williams, A. M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Whole-building life-cycle analysis with a new GREET® tool: Embodied greenhouse gas emissions and payback period of a LEED-Certified library

Embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of building components and buildings operations need to be quantified to holistically address building sustainability. To evaluate embodied GHG emissions of buildings and to provide insights on building materials and building design decisions toward decarbonization, we have recently created a building life-cycle assessment (LCA) module in the widely used Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET (R)) LCA model. We applied the GREET building LCA module to examine embodied GHG impacts and the payback period of a LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certified public library in Chicago, USA. We developed localized, detailed life-cycle inventories to address individual building materials used in the library. We expanded the LCA system boundary to include the mechanical, electrical, and plumbing system, as well as refrigerant impacts, which are often ignored in previous studies. Results show that the total embodied GHG emissions are approximately 817 metric tons, or approximately 538 kg/m 2 . Sensitivity analysis highlights the positive role of increasing the use of recycled materials for reducing embodied GHG emissions. Sensitivity analysis on embodied GHG emissions payback periods shows the need to benchmark the embodied and operational carbon performance of buildings for comparison to alternative building designs and sustainability practices. Furthermore, this analysis demonstrates that building LCA models, such as the GREET building LCA module, which addresses embodied and operational GHG emission impacts of whole buildings holistically, could empower building architects, technology developers, manufacturers, and general contractors to address embodied and operational impacts holistically for building sustainability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1992

On options for interdisciplinary analysis and design optimization

The interdisciplinary optimization of engineering systems is discussed from the standpoint of the computational alternatives available to the designer. The analysis of such systems typically requires the solution of coupled systems of nonlinear algebraic equations. The solution procedure is necessarily iterative in nature. It is shown that the system can be solved by fixed point iteration, by Newton's method, or by a combination of the two. However, the need for sensitivity analysis may affect the choice of analysis solution method. Similarly, the optimization of the system can be formulated in several ways that are discussed in the paper. It is shown that the effect of the topology of the interaction between disciplines is a key factor in the choice of analysis, sensitivity and optimization methods. Several examples are presented to illustrate the discussion.

Haftka, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Analysis of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube

This paper outlines a methodology to identify the measurement uncertainty of NASA Langley s Grazing Flow Impedance Tube (GFIT) over its operating range, and to identify the parameters that most significantly contribute to the acoustic impedance prediction. Two acoustic liners are used for this study. The first is a single-layer, perforate-over-honeycomb liner that is nonlinear with respect to sound pressure level. The second consists of a wire-mesh facesheet and a honeycomb core, and is linear with respect to sound pressure level. These liners allow for evaluation of the effects of measurement uncertainty on impedances educed with linear and nonlinear liners. In general, the measurement uncertainty is observed to be larger for the nonlinear liners, with the largest uncertainty occurring near anti-resonance. A sensitivity analysis of the aerodynamic parameters (Mach number, static temperature, and static pressure) used in the impedance eduction process is also conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach. This sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the impedance eduction process is virtually insensitive to each of these parameters.

Brown, Martha C.↗

DOE OSTI2018

An Uncertainty Quantification of the Computational Fluid Dynamics Solution to the Modeling of the Contact Point in a Wire-Wrapped Fuel Assembly

An uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of the turbulent flow in a wire-wrapped pin bundle to the contact-point model and the inlet conditions is presented. Three geometries are considered in this work that are an infinitely large bundle (single subchannel with periodic boundary conditions in the stream-wisedirection), a 7-pin bundle and a 19-pin bundle. The response functions of this study are the friction factor, thevorticity and the mixing parameters. The results show that the friction factor is not sensitive to the contact-point model. The vorticity shows a strong dependency to the inclusion of prismatic layers near the wall boundaries. Results for the mixing parameters are inconclusive. A variance-based sensitivity analysis(Sobol indices) indicates that the influence of the contact-point model on the variance of the friction factor decreases when increasing the size of the bundle. Other response functions (vorticity and mixing parameters)show little sensitivity to the size of the bundle.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate Impact on CO2 Capture Efficiency and Levelized Cost of Liquid solvent-based DAC (Direct Air Capture) System

The transition towards net-zero emission poses economic, technical, and political challenges for the commercial-scale deployment of CO2 removal technologies by 2050. The opportunities for large-scale deployment will largely depend on the distinctive conditions found in the different locations of the world such as energy cost, carbon intensity of energy source, construction, transportation, and weather conditions. In this work, we focus on one of the promising negative emission technology, DAC (Direct Air Capture), and its response to different weather conditions. This work presents two potential operation scenarios: (i) natural gas standalone, (ii) grid electricity connected DAC plant. For the first time, we investigated the influence of temperature and RH (relative humidity) of the air on liquid-based DAC system and its response to carbon capture efficiency and levelized cost of carbon capture with operational sensitivity analysis. It is observed that the overall energy demand decreases from 11.1 to 8.3 GJ/ton-CO2 as the CO2 capture rate increases from 40 to 85%. We observed that a CO2 capture rate of 75% is only possible above 17°C even at 90% RH and this drops tremendously at lower temperatures. It is also observed that water evaporation in the air contactor is highest at dry and low RH as expected. The sensitivity analysis showed that weather conditions are insensitive to CO2 capture efficiency for the liquid-solvent based DAC plant for both scenarios. In addition, higher CO2 capture efficiency is achievable from lower upstream methane emissions and carbon intensity of grid electricity (for grid-connected scenario). Lastly, the levelized cost of natural gas standalone scenario varies from 239.7 to 408.8 $/t-CO2 is sensitive to temperature conditions more than relative humidity and compared to electricity grid-connected scenario, from 265.3 to 440.1 $/t-CO2.

An, Keju↗

DOE OSTI2017

Numerical groundwater-flow modeling to evaluate potential effects of pumping and recharge: implications for sustainable groundwater management in the Mahanadi delta region, India

Process-based groundwater models are useful to understand complex aquifer systems and make predictions about their response to hydrological changes. A conceptual model for evaluating responses to environmental changes is presented, considering the hydrogeologic framework, flow processes, aquifer hydraulic properties, boundary conditions, and sources and sinks of the groundwater system. Based on this conceptual model, a quasi-three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was designed using MODFLOW to simulate the groundwater system of Mahanadi River delta, eastern India. The model was constructed in the context of an upper unconfined aquifer and lower confined aquifer, separated by an aquitard. Hydraulic heads of 13 shallow wells and 11 deep wells were used to calibrate transient groundwater conditions during 1997–2006, followed by validation (2007–2011). The aquifer and aquitard hydraulic properties were obtained by pumping tests and were calibrated along with the rainfall recharge. The statistical and graphical performance indicators suggested a reasonably good simulation of groundwater flow over the study area. Sensitivity analysis revealed that groundwater level is most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivities of both the aquifers, followed by vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining layer. The calibrated model was then employed to explore groundwater-flow dynamics in response to changes in pumping and recharge conditions. The simulation results indicate that pumping has a substantial effect on the confined aquifer flow regime as compared to the unconfined aquifer. The results and insights from this study have important implications for other regional groundwater modeling studies, especially in multi-layered aquifer systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Dakota uncertainty quantification methods applied to the NEK-5000 SAHEX model.

This report summarizes the results of a NEAMS project focused on the use of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods within the NEK-5000 and Dakota software framework for assessing failure probabilities as part of probabilistic risk assessment. NEK-5000 is a software tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory to perform computational fluid dynamics calculations for applications such as thermohydraulics of nuclear reactor cores. Dakota is a software tool developed at Sandia National Laboratories containing optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification algorithms. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the use of uncertainty quantification methods in Dakota with NEK-5000.

Weirs, V. Gregory↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis of Synthetic Fuels Pathways Integrated with Light Water Reactors

The purpose of this work is to identify, model, and compare two possible synfuel production routes utilizing CO 2 as the feedstock. Heat from an LWR nuclear plant is integrated wherever possible as a means to positively affect the economics of the LWR. Process and economic modeling for a conceptual synfuel production plant co-located (or in near proximity) with an LWR is presented, including the cost of CO 2 captured from an ethanol plant, compressed, and transported to the LWR hybrid plant, co-electrolysis of the CO 2 with water in a solid oxide electrolyzing cell (SOEC) system to produce syngas, and thermo-catalytic conversion of the syngas to transportation fuel. The hybrid LWR/synfuels plant is assumed to be located within 50-150 miles of an ethanol plant, e.g., located in the Midwest region of the United States. Performance and nth plant economics for the co-electrolysis-based processes are evaluated and compared with biomass-gasification-based technology for the synfuel routes considered. Sensitivity analysis around the price of CO 2 and electricity, two of the major cost drivers, is presented for each case. Consideration of a carbon credit is also included in the sensitivity analysis.

08 HYDROGEN↗