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DOE OSTI2026

Improving Process Level Understanding of Boundary Layer Winds over the Northeast U.S. Shelf: The Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3)

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), a U.S. Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored investigation, sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the marine atmospheric boundary layer. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and submesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high-use coastal zone, using a 3D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large autonomous barge platform. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed that are being evaluated within regional coupled and uncoupled modeling systems, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's foundational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model.

Kirincich, Anthony↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving High Resolution Offshore Wind Resource Assessments and Forecasts using Observations in the MA/RI Lease Areas

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3) sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL). WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high use coastal zone, using a 3-D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the MABL over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large barge platform. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and sub-mesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed, however the project was terminated prior to the completion of the field observational period and the analysis period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOSAiC studies of long-lasting mixed-phase cloud events and analysis of the liquid-phase properties of Arctic clouds

Vertically resolved observations of the temporal evolution of mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) were performed over the central Arctic during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition, which lasted from October 2019 to September 2020. The research icebreaker Polarstern , drifting with the pack ice for more than 7 months, mostly at latitudes > 85° N, served as a platform for state-of-the-art remote sensing of aerosols and clouds. The use of the recently introduced dual field-of-view (FOV) polarization lidar technique in combination with the well-established lidar-radar retrieval technique provided, for the first time, a robust instrumental basis to monitor the evolution of the liquid and the ice phase of MPCs and the interplay between the two phases. Two long-lasting Arctic MPC events observed close to the North Pole in mid-winter (December 2019) and late summer (September 2020) are discussed to provide new insight into Arctic MPC evolution processes. In the second part of the article, cloud statistics, covering all seasons of a year, are presented. The focus is on the optical and microphysical properties of the liquid phase. These results are solely derived from the dual-FOV lidar observations. The key findings of the study can be summarized as follows: persistent activation of aerosol particles to form water droplets is of great importance for the longevity of MPCs. The observations confirm that ice formation occurs predominantly via immersion freezing. The field studies suggest that the free tropospheric reservoirs of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) were always well filled, i.e., the clouds did not exhaust their supply of activatable and activated particles. The observation of long-lasting MPC events, low ice production rates, and a sufficiently large INP reservoir leads to the recommendation to use a time-dependent immersion freezing parameterization in MPC modeling efforts.

Jimenez, Cristofer [Leibniz Inst. for Tropospheric↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate-Related Trends of Within-Storm Intensities Using Dimensionless Temporal-Storm Distributions

Huff curves are probabilistic time distributions of rainfall expressed as dimensionless cumulative percentages of storm depth and duration. Previous studies have documented development factors, spatial robustness, and the utility of Huff curves in practical applications. However, the effects of trending rainfall on Huff curve intensity patterns have not yet been studied. As such, the goal of this paper is to fill this gap by studying Huff curve patterns in a watershed with demonstrated increasing trends of temperature and precipitation, with the intention that it can be generalized to other areas in the US and the world. To achieve this goal, the high temporal resolution precipitation data collected from a high spatial density, 72-year precipitation-gauge network on the 4.25-km 2 North Appalachian Experimental Watershed in east-central Ohio were used. Seasonal storm pattern trends from 1939 to 2010 were investigated using dimensionless depth (with the frequency of 50%, $d_{50}$) and the curve variability $(V = d_{80} - d_{20})$ at three dimensionless within-storms time periods (three verticals). The Spearman rank correlation procedure (correlation coefficient, ρ and significance probability, p) was used to statistically determine trends over time using 8 periods of 4-season sets of Huff curves over the 72 years. Two averages of ρ and p were computed: (1) by averaging the individual ρ and p obtained from 10 gauges (AvgI); and (2) by grouped averaging of all individual gauge values of $d_{50}$ and V and then computing ρ and p (AvgG). The test results of individual gauges showed that 4 cases for $d_{50}$ and 23 cases for V were significant for all seasons and verticals (total of 120 cases for each variable). The test results of AvgI for $d_{50}$ and V and AvgG for $d_{50}$ showed no significant trends in all seasons and verticals. Only the AvgG for V led to a significant trend for V in spring and fall at different times within storm patterns. The data do not provide sufficient evidence at the p=0.05 significance level to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging position of the dimensionless depth of the 50% Huff curves for individual or averages for all seasons and verticals. Also, there is insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis of unchanging variability, V, using the average ρ of individual gauges (AvgI for V) for all seasons and verticals. AvgG results showed a significant trend in V; however, this analysis may be affected by the nonindependence of storm data. The results suggest that it is likely that there is little if any effect of trending climate over approximately 70 years on Huff curve patterns. The results of this study add to the robustness characteristics of Huff curves and to their potential use in hydrological practice as design storms, as the foundation of stochastic storm generation, and for storm disaggregation, and they deserve further investigation. These different forms of inputs to watershed models have the potential to improve runoff estimation. The results suggest that, if verified in other studies, they have applicability to provide useful stationary precipitation patterns across the US and other areas of the world in areas of nonstationary climate. Also, individual rain gauge data may not be representative of trends even over small areas, and seasonal differences were noticeable as found in other studies. Recommendations are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Detecting Surface Changes from an Underground Explosion in Granite Using Unmanned Aerial System Photogrammetry

Efficient detection and high-fidelity quantification of surface changes resulting from underground activities are important national and global security efforts. In this investigation, a team performed field-based topographic characterization by gathering high-quality photographs at very low altitudes from an unmanned aerial system (UAS)-borne camera platform. The data collection occurred shortly before and after a controlled underground chemical explosion as part of the United States Department of Energy’s Source Physics Experiments (SPE-5) series. The high-resolution overlapping photographs were used to create 3D photogrammetric models of the site, which then served to map changes in the landscape down to 1-cm-scale. Separate models were created for two areas, herein referred to as the test table grid region and the nearfield grid region. The test table grid includes the region within ~40 m from surface ground zero, with photographs collected at a flight altitude of 8.5 m above ground level (AGL). The near-field grid area covered a broader area, 90–130 m from surface ground zero, and collected at a flight altitude of 22 m AGL. The photographs, processed using Agisoft Photoscan® in conjunction with 125 surveyed ground control point targets, yielded a 6-mm pixel-size digital elevation model (DEM) for the test table grid region. This provided the ≤3 cm resolution in the topographic data to map in fine detail a suite of features related to the underground explosion: uplift, subsidence, surface fractures, and morphological change detection. The near-field grid region data collection resulted in a 2-cm pixel-size DEM, enabling mapping of a broader range of features related to the explosion, including: uplift and subsidence, rock fall, and slope sloughing. This study represents one of the first works to constrain, both temporally and spatially, explosion-related surface damage using a UAS photogrammetric platform; these data will help to advance the science of underground explosion detection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multigrid methods with space–time concurrency

Here, we consider the comparison of multigrid methods for parabolic partial differential equations that allow space–time concurrency. With current trends in computer architectures leading towards systems with more, but not faster, processors, space–time concurrency is crucial for speeding up time-integration simulations. In contrast, traditional time-integration techniques impose serious limitations on parallel performance due to the sequential nature of the time-stepping approach, allowing spatial concurrency only. This paper considers the three basic options of multigrid algorithms on space–time grids that allow parallelism in space and time: coarsening in space and time, semicoarsening in the spatial dimensions, and semicoarsening in the temporal dimension. We develop parallel software and performance models to study the three methods at scales of up to 16K cores and introduce an extension of one of them for handling multistep time integration. We then discuss advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches and their benefit compared to traditional space-parallel algorithms with sequential time stepping on modern architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Repetitively pulsed nanosecond discharge plasma decay in propane–oxygen gas mixture in the presence of a heating electric field

Plasma decay in the afterglow of a repetitively pulsed nanosecond discharge in a stoichiometric propane–oxygen mixture was experimentally investigated when a weak heating DC electric field was applied and in its absence. The discharge was ignited at room gas temperature and a pressure of 1–2 Torr and was characterized by low specific energy inputs (<0.004 eV per molecule in one pulse). Using microwave interferometry, the temporal evolution of the electron density during plasma decay was studied, and the effective recombination coefficients were obtained from data processing. It was shown that the rate of plasma decay behaved in a non-monotonic manner with increasing degree of propane oxidation; at first the decay rate grew, then passed through a maximum, fell and saturated in the limit of a large (~2000) number of pulses. In this limit, the effect of the heating DC electric field on the plasma decay decreased with approaching chemical equilibrium. Numerical simulation of the observed effects was performed for low and high oxidation degrees of propane taking into account changes in the composition of positive ions in the plasma. Good agreement was obtained between measurements and calculations of the electron density during plasma decay in these cases. Here it was shown that the formation of cluster ions in the discharge afterglow plays a fundamental role. The plasma decay was controlled by electron recombination with hydrocarbon cluster ion at low oxidation degree of propane and with water cluster (hydrated) ions at high oxidation degree. A hypothesis was proposed to explain the observed nonmonotonic behavior of the plasma decay rate with an increase in the propane oxidation in the discharge, based on the formation of hydrated hydrocarbon ions C x H y + (H 2 O) k at moderate oxidation degrees.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of PFASs contamination in the freshwater and terrestrial environments by analysis of eggs from osprey (Pandion haliaetus), tawny owl (Strix aluco), and common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus)

The level of PFAS (per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances) contamination in freshwater and terrestrial Swedish environments in 2013/2014 was assessed by analyzing a range of perfluorinated alkyl acids, fluorotelomer acids, sulfonamides, sulfonamidoethanols and polyfluoralkyl phosphate diesters (diPAPs) in predator bird eggs. Stable isotopes ({sup 13}C and {sup 15}N) were analyzed to elucidate the dietary source. The tawny owl (Strix aluco, n=10) and common kestrel (Falco tinnunculus, n=40), two terrestrial species, and the osprey (Pandion haliaetus, n=30), a freshwater specie were included. In addition, a temporal trend (1997–2001, 2008–2009, 2013) in osprey was studied as well. The PFAS profile was dominated by perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) in eggs from osprey and tawny owl, while for common kestrel perfluorinated carboxylic acids (∑PFCA) exceeded the level of PFOS. PFOS concentration in osprey eggs remained at the same level between 1997 and 2001 and 2013. For the long-chained PFCAs, there were a significant increase in concentrations in osprey eggs between 1997 and 2001 and 2008–2009. The levels of PFOS and PFCAs were about 10 and five times higher, respectively, in osprey compared to tawny owl and common kestrel. Evidence of direct exposure from PFCA precursor compounds to birds in both freshwater and terrestrial environment was observed. Low levels of diPAPs were detected in a few samples of osprey (<0.02–2.4 ng/g) and common kestrel (<0.02–0.16 ng/g) eggs, and 6:2 FTSA was detected in a majority of the osprey eggs (<6.3–52 ng/g). One saturated telomer acid (7:3 FTCA), which is a transformation marker from precursor exposure, was detected in all species (<0.24–2.7 ng/g). The {sup 15}N data showed higher levels in osprey eggs compared to tawny owl and common kestrel, indicating that they feed on a 2–3 times higher trophic level. We conclude that ospreys are continuously exposed to PFAS at levels where adverse toxic effects have been observed in birds. - Highlights: • Levels in the freshwater environment exceeded those of the terrestrial environment. • Birds in both freshwater and terrestrial environment are exposed to PFCA precursors. • No significant change of PFOS level in osprey eggs between 1997 and 2001 and 2013. • PFAS levels pose a risk to birds in the freshwater environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

California's harvested wood products: A time-dependent assessment of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions

Following life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, this study presents a state-level estimation of embodied carbon of wood products harvested in 2019 from California and subsequently processed, manufactured, transported, used, and disposed at the end-of-life (EoL). In a conventional static approach to LCA, all GHG emissions were aggregated and considered to occur at year 0 of the given time horizon (500 years in this study) and used a static characterization factor (CF). In dynamic LCA, GHG emissions occurring in different years were considered, and their global warming impact (GWI) was determined using a time-dependent CF over the selected time horizon of 500 years. Four scenarios were developed to examine the impact of EoL choices on GWI. It was found that dynamic GWI for all scenarios ranged from 0.27 to 0.93 million tonne CO₂e, which were 45–73 % lower than those estimated with static LCA approach, indicating that the static LCA approach could lead to an underestimation of the benefits of substituting wood for non-wood products, compared to those based on dynamic LCA approach. This analysis also demonstrated that the choice of EoL treatment option is a key factor affecting the estimated GWI as it directly determines the annual emission of GHGs released into atmosphere and subsequently their warming effect depending on the time harvested wood products (HWPs) spend in the horizon of assessment. Altogether, the dynamic LCA performed in this study enabled more robust interpretations of embodied carbon by including temporal boundaries associated with the HWPs life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatio-Kinetic Electronic Heterogeneity in MoS 2 Revealed by Ultrafast Electron Microscopy: Implications for Optoelectronics

There is broad interest in layered, two-dimensional (2D) semiconductors owing to their high optical absorption and ability to heterogeneously integrate with various substrates. In such layered semiconductors, mesoscopic imperfections, such as surface step edges, may affect charge carrier kinetics and device performance, but studying their effects on carrier transport with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution is a challenge. Using scanning ultrafast electron microscopy, we image the near-surface charge carrier kinetics with μm/ps spatiotemporal resolution in single-crystal MoS 2 samples with surface steps tens of nanometers in height. We find an approximately 3-fold increase in surface trap density near such surface steps compared to the uniform, flat surface regions. Despite the difference in trap state density, filling of the traps occurs over the same time scale (∼100 ps), but carrier recovery is much slower near the step compared to the uniform regions of the material. Furthermore, these results provide an approach to measure ultrafast dynamics and determine the required uniformity of layered materials depending on the speed limit constraints for specific applications.

SEM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Size and Structural Control of Mechanoluminescent ZnS:Mn 2+ Nanocrystals for Optogenetic Neuromodulation

Mechanoluminescent materials hold immense potential for various transformative applications, from medical imaging and diagnostics to health monitoring and wearable displays. Conventionally produced as bulk powders or microparticles, they face significant size limitations for advanced applications, particularly in biological systems and microscale devices. Here, this work presents an approach to ZnS:Mn 2+ nanocrystal synthesis that involves self-assembly and subsequent calcination. In addition to effective size control within the nanoscale, this approach promotes the formation of abundant stacking faults, significantly enhancing piezoelectric and mechanoluminescent properties by increasing trap density and reducing trap depth. Unlike mechanoluminescent materials produced using conventional methods, these nanocrystals demonstrate strong mechanoluminescence without requiring UV pre-excitation, and the light emission persists even after mechanical stress is removed. These advantageous properties make them promising candidates for optogenetic neuromodulation, as they can effectively trigger electrical signals in neurons upon ultrasound stimulation both with and without UV pre-excitation. The persistent mechanoluminescence prolongs the duration of neuronal electrical activity, providing an extended temporal window for neuromodulation compared to conventional mechanoluminescent materials. This study provides a scalable method for producing efficient mechanoluminescent nanoparticles and reveals the crucial role of particle size and defect structures in determining their mechanoluminescent behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reconstruction of larval origins based on genetic relatedness and biophysical modeling

The assessment of the mechanisms and patterns of larval connectivity between geographically separated populations leads to a better understanding of benthic marine population dynamics, especially in commercially valuable species. This study investigated for the first time the fine-scale temporal genetic variability of new settlers and their origins in a benthic marine organism with one of the longest pelagic larval phases, the Caribbean spiny lobster (Panulirus argus). We genotyped newly settled postlarvae in the Florida Keys and adults of spiny lobster from the Florida Keys and throughout the Caribbean Sea. We identified strong larval connectivity between Dominican Republic, Belize, Nicaragua, the Florida Keys, and West-Florida. the larval dispersal modeling suggests that Florida’s lobster population could receive recruits from within and from other areas outside its state and national maritime boundaries. The genetic analyses refine the oceanographic model indicating that the connectivity patterns described could also result from unknown parental populations sourcing adults and postlarvae in different spawning seasons to the Florida Keys. We discuss the importance of small temporal scales to identify patterns in larval export. Our findings are significant on two levels. From the larval dispersal perspective, genetic results and biophysical modeling identify patterns of gene flow enhancing persistence of local populations. From an economic and fishery perspective, P. argus is the most important commercial species in the Caribbean and our results inform how considering larval source and sink dynamics across international boundaries could improve management plans at local, national, and regional levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Investigation of photoresponse in cadmium sulfide nanoparticles

In this work, we report on the photo-response of CdS nanoparticles prepared by simple solid state reaction method. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) study has confirmed the formation of cubical zinc blende (c) phase. In the photo-response study, voltage dependence of photocurrent and darkcurrent as well as temporal rise and decay of photocurrent of CdS nanoparticles have been investigated. The photo-response of prepared sample has been measured under visible illumination using thick film of powder with out any binder. The photocurrent (I{sub pc}) and darkcurrent (I{sub dc}) follow power law with applied voltage i.e. I α V{sup r}. The rise and decay of photocurrent show negative photoconductivity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Implanted satellite transmitters affect sea duck movement patterns at short and long timescales

Abstract Studies of the effects of transmitters on wildlife often focus on survival. However, sublethal behavioral changes resulting from radio-marking have the potential to affect inferences from telemetry data and may vary based on individual and environmental characteristics. We used a long-term, multi-species tracking study of sea ducks to assess behavioral patterns at multiple temporal scales following implantation of intracoelomic satellite transmitters. We applied state-space models to assess short-term behavioral patterns in 476 individuals with implanted satellite transmitters, as well as comparing breeding site attendance and migratory phenology across multiple years after capture. In the short term, our results suggest an increase in dispersive behavior immediately following capture and transmitter implantation; however, behavior returned to seasonally average patterns within ~5 days after release. Over multiple years, we found that breeding site attendance by both males and females was depressed during the first breeding season after radio-marking relative to subsequent years, with larger relative decreases in breeding site attendance among males than females. We also found that spring and breeding migrations occurred later in the first year after radio-marking than in subsequent years. Across all behavioral effects, the severity of behavioral change often varied by species, sex, age, and capture season. We conclude that, although individuals appear to adjust relatively quickly (i.e. within 1 week) to implanted satellite transmitters, changes in breeding phenology may occur over the longer term and should be considered when analyzing and reporting telemetry data.

Lamb, Juliet S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Investigating the peculiar emission from the new VHE gamma-ray source H1722+119

The Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) telescopes ob- served the BL Lac object H1722+119 (redshift unknown) for six consecutive nights between 2013 May 17 and 22, for a total of 12.5 h. The observations were triggered by high activity in the optical band measured by the KVA (Kungliga Vetenskap- sakademien) telescope. The source was for the first time detected in the very high energy (VHE, E > 100GeV) γ-ray band with a statistical significance of 5.9 σ. The integral flux above 150GeV is estimated to be (2.0±0.5) per cent of the Crab Nebula flux. We used contemporaneous high energy (HE, 100MeV < E < 100GeV) γ-ray observations from Fermi-LAT (Large Area Telescope) to estimate the redshift of the source. Within the framework of the current extragalactic background light models, we estimate the redshift to be z = 0.34±0.15. Additionally, we used contemporaneous X-ray to radio data collected by the instruments on board the Swift satellite, the KVA, and the OVRO (Owens Valley Radio Observatory) telescope to study multifrequency characteristics of the source. We found no significant temporal variability of the flux in the HE and VHE bands. The flux in the optical and radio wavebands, on the other hand, did vary with different patterns. The spectral energy distribution (SED) of H1722+119 shows surprising behaviour in the ~ 3×10 14 -10 18 Hz frequency range. It can be modelled using an inhomogeneous helical jet synchrotron self-Compton model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Forecasting of Distributed Temperature Sensing in a Thermal Hydraulic System With Machine Learning and Statistical Models

We benchmark performance of long-short term memory (LSTM) network machine learning model and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model in temporal forecasting of distributed temperature sensing (DTS). Data in this study consists of fluid temperature transient measured with two co-located Rayleigh scattering fiber optic sensors (FOS) in a forced convection mixing zone of a thermal tee. We treat each gauge of a FOS as an independent temperature sensor. We first study prediction of DTS time series using Vanilla LSTM and ARIMA models trained on prior history of the same FOS that is used for testing. The results yield maximum absolute percentage error (MaxAPE) and root mean squared percentage error (RMSPE) of 1.58% and 0.06% for ARIMA, and 3.14% and 0.44% for LSTM, respectively. Next, we investigate zero-shot forecasting (ZSF) with LSTM and ARIMA trained on history of the co-located FOS only, which is advantageous when limited training data is available. The ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE values for ARIMA are comparable to those of the Vanilla use case, while the error values for LSTM increase. We show that in ZSF, performance of LSTM network can be improved by training on most correlated gauges between the two FOS, which are identified by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient. The improved ZSF MaxAPE and RMSPE for LSTM are 4.4% and 0.33%, respectively. Performance of ZSF LSTM can be further enhanced through transfer learning (TL), where LSTM is re-trained on a subset of the FOS that is the target of forecasting. We show that LSTM pre-trained on correlated dataset and re-trained on 30% of testing target dataset achieves MaxAPE and RMSPE values of 2.32% and 0.28%, respectively.

ARIMA↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multivariate Predictive Analytics of Wind Power Data for Robust Control of Energy Storage

Short-term forecasting is frequently identified as an important tool for the effective management of wind generation. However, forecasting errors, inherent to the point forecasts, increase requirements for energy storage and can affect optimal system operation. Probabilistic forecasts can help tackle this issue by providing a proper characterization of forecasting errors in the optimization process. This paper proposes a multivariate model of forecasting data for wind generation. Predictive uncertainty intervals of wind power can be obtained by sampling from the proposed model. The main goal is to use empirical data models without linear or Gaussian approximations of the distributional or temporal variations. The predictive modeling is utilized within a case study of an energy storage system. Finally, a modified robust convex programming is used to maintain the practical robustness and feasibility of the solution based on the sampled scenarios from the model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗