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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,225 records · Page 68

A software simulation study of a (255,223) Reed-Solomon encoder-decoder

A set of software programs which simulates a (255,223) Reed-Solomon encoder/decoder pair is described. The transform decoder algorithm uses a modified Euclid algorithm, and closely follows the pipeline architecture proposed for the hardware decoder. Uncorrectable error patterns are detected by a simple test, and the inverse transform is computed by a finite field FFT. Numerical examples of the decoder operation are given for some test codewords, with and without errors. The use of the software package is briefly described.

Pollara, F.↗

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mentoring Human Performance - 12480

Although the positive effects of implementing a human performance approach to operations can be hard to quantify, many organizations and industry areas are finding tangible benefits to such a program. Recently, a unique mentoring program was established and implemented focusing on improving the performance of managers, supervisors, and work crews, using the principles of Human Performance Improvement (HPI). The goal of this mentoring was to affect behaviors and habits that reliably implement the principles of HPI to ensure continuous improvement in implementation of an Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) within a Conduct of Operations framework. Mentors engaged with personnel in a one-on-one, or one-on-many dialogue, which focused on what behaviors were observed, what factors underlie the behaviors, and what changes in behavior could prevent errors or events, and improve performance. A senior management sponsor was essential to gain broad management support. A clear charter and management plan describing the goals, objectives, methodology, and expected outcomes was established. Mentors were carefully selected with senior management endorsement. Mentors were assigned to projects and work teams based on the following three criteria: 1) knowledge of the work scope; 2) experience in similar project areas; and 3) perceived level of trust they would have with project management, supervision, and work teams. This program was restructured significantly when the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA) and the associated funding came to an end. The program was restructured based on an understanding of the observations, attributed successes and identified shortfalls, and the consolidation of those lessons. Mentoring the application of proven methods for improving human performance was shown effective at increasing success in day-to-day activities and increasing confidence and level of skill of supervisors. While mentoring program effectiveness is difficult to measure, and return on investment is difficult to quantify, especially in complex and large organizations where the ability to directly correlate causal factors can be challenging, the evidence presented by Sydney Dekker, James Reason, and others who study the field of human factors does assert managing and reducing error is possible. Employment of key behaviors-HPI techniques and skills-can be shown to have a significant impact on error rates. Our mentoring program demonstrated reduced error rates and corresponding improvements in safety and production. Improved behaviors are the result, of providing a culture with consistent, clear expectations from leadership, and processes and methods applied consistently to error prevention. Mentoring, as envisioned and executed in this program, was effective in helping shift organizational culture and effectively improving safety and production. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Cognitive bias↗

Flavor-dependent radiative corrections in coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering

We calculate coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering cross sections on spin-0 nuclei (e.g. 40 Ar and 28 Si) at energies below 100 MeV within the Standard Model and account for all effects of permille size. We provide a complete error budget including uncertainties at nuclear, nucleon, hadronic, and quark levels separately as well as perturbative error. Our calculation starts from the four-fermion effective field theory to explicitly separate heavy-particle mediated corrections (which are absorbed by Wilson coefficients) from light-particle contributions. Electrons and muons running in loops introduce a non- trivial dependence on the momentum transfer due to their relatively light masses. These same loops, and those mediated by tau leptons, break the flavor universality because of mass-dependent electromagnetic radiative corrections. Nuclear physics uncertainties significantly cancel in flavor asymmetries resulting in subpercent relative errors. We find that for low neutrino energies, the cross section can be predicted with a relative precision that is competitive with neutrino-electron scattering. We highlight potentially useful applications of such a precise cross section prediction ranging from precision tests of the Standard Model, to searches for new physics and to the monitoring of nuclear reactors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Transport methods and interactions for space radiations

This report presents a brief history leading to the involvement of the Langley Research Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in space-radiation physics and protection. Indeed, a relatively complete summary of technical capability as of the summer of 1990 is given. The Boltzmann equations for coupled ionic and neutronic fields are presented and inversion techniques for the Boltzmann operator are discussed. Errors generated by the straight ahead approximation are derived and are shown to be negligible for most problems of space-radiation protection. A decoupling of projectile propagation from the target fields greatly simplifies the Boltzmann equations and allows an analytic solution of the target fragment transport. Analytic and numerical methods of solving the projectile transport equations are discussed. The nuclear physics underlying the coefficients in the Boltzmann equation is discussed. A coupled-channel optical model is found as a consequence of the loose binding of nuclear matter and closure of the nuclear states in high-energy reactions. Transport solutions with the developed data base are used with laboratory experiments to validate both the transport code and the data base. Numerical benchmarks and comparison with Monte Carlo calculations are also used for code validation.

Wilson, John W.↗

On the Accurate Calibration of the SeaWinds Radar Antenna: A Cylindrical Near-Field Measurement Approach

This paper demonstrates the utility of a cylindrical near-field measurement approach for the SeaWinds radar antenna calibration. Both generalized measurement error models and measured tests on a standard gain horn and NASA Scatterometer instrument antenna have been performed to achieve and verify the desired calibration accuracy. A comparison between far-field measured data and those obtained from cylindrical near-field measurements was found in excellent agreement.

spaceborne↗

Data Assimilation in the Presence of Forecast Bias: The GEOS Moisture Analysis

We describe the application of the unbiased sequential analysis algorithm developed by Dee and da Silva (1998) to the GEOS DAS moisture analysis. The algorithm estimates the persistent component of model error using rawinsonde observations and adjusts the first-guess moisture field accordingly. Results of two seasonal data assimilation cycles show that moisture analysis bias is almost completely eliminated in all observed regions. The improved analyses cause a sizable reduction in the 6h-forecast bias and a marginal improvement in the error standard deviations.

Dee, Dick P.↗

NEAT: A Microarcsec Astrometric Telescope

NEAT, Nearby Exo-Earth Astrometric Telescope is a medium-small telescope ~ 1m in diameter that is designed to make ultra precise < 1 uas (microarcsec) astrometric measurements of nearby stars in a ~ 1hr observation. Four major error sources prevent normal space telescopes from obtaining accuracies close to 1 uas. Even with a small 1m telescope, photon noise is usually not a problem for the bright nearby target stars. But in general, the reference stars are much fainter. Typically a field of view of ~0.5 deg dia is needed to obtain enough bright reference stars. The NEAT concept uses a very simple but unusual design to avoid optically induced astrometric errors. The third source of error is the accuracy and stability of the focal plane. A 1uas error over a ~2000 arcsec field of view implies the focal plane is accurate or at least stable to 5 parts in 1010 over the lifetime of the mission (~5yrs). The 4th class of error has to do with our knowledge of the PSF and how that PSF is sampled by an imperfect detector. A Nyquist sampled focal plane would have > 2 pixels per ?/D, and centroiding to 1uas means centroiding to 10-5 pixels. This paper describes the mission concept, and an overview of the technology needed to perform 1uas astrometry with a small telescope, and how we overcome problems 1 and 2. A companion paper will describe the technical progress we've made in solving problems 3 and 4.

interferometry↗

Constraining Numerical Geodynamo Modeling with Surface Observations

Numerical dynamo solutions have traditionally been generated entirely by a set of self-consistent differential equations that govern the spatial-temporal variation of the magnetic field, velocity field and other fields related to dynamo processes. In particular, those solutions are obtained with parameters very different from those appropriate for the Earth s core. Geophysical application of the numerical results therefore depends on correct understanding of the differences (errors) between the model outputs and the true states (truth) in the outer core. Part of the truth can be observed at the surface in the form of poloidal magnetic field. To understand these differences, or errors, we generate new initial model state (analysis) by assimilating sequentially the model outputs with the surface geomagnetic observations using an optimal interpolation scheme. The time evolution of the core state is then controlled by our MoSST core dynamics model. The final outputs (forecasts) are then compared with the surface observations as a means to test the success of the assimilation. We use the surface geomagnetic data back to year 1900 for our studies, with 5-year forecast and 20-year analysis periods. We intend to use the result; to understand time variation of the errors with the assimilation sequences, and the impact of the assimilation on other unobservable quantities, such as the toroidal field and the fluid velocity in the core.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Methods for local gravity field approximation

The most widely known modern method for estimating gravity field values from observed data is least-squares collocation. Its advantages are that it can make estimates at arbitrary locations based on irregularly spaced observations, and that it makes use of statistical information about errors in the input data while providing corresponding information about the quality of the output estimates. Disadvantages of collocation include the necessity of inverting square matrices of dimension equal to the number of data values and the need to assume covariance models for the gravity field and the data errors. Fourier methods are an important alternative to collocation; having the advantage of greater computational efficiency, but requiring data estimates to be on a regular grid and not using or providing statistical accuracy information. The GEOFAST algorithm is an implementation of collocation that achieves high computational efficiency by transforming the estimation equations into the frequency domain where an accurate approximation may be made to reduce the workload. The forward and inverse Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) are utilized. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the GEOFAST algorithm is demonstrated using two sets of synthetic gravity data: marine gravity for an ocean trench region including wavelengths longer than 200 km; and local land gravity containing wavelengths as short as 5 km. These results are discussed along with issues such as the advantages of first removing reference field models before carrying out the estimation algorithm.

Sailor, R. V.↗

A four-dimensional analysis exactly satisfying equations of motion

A four-dimensional analysis is applied to spectral nonlinear models of the atmosphere. The experiment reveals that the four-dimensional analysis errors are smaller than measurement errors, the method is stable in an assimilation cycle, and an accurate estimate of the velocity field is maintained using only temperature observations. It is concluded that the four-dimensional analyses display rapid initial error growth and therefore are better than ordinary forecasts from observations for only the first 24 hours.

Hoffman, R. N.↗

Degenerate variational integrators for magnetic field line flow and guiding center trajectories

Symplectic integrators offer many benefits for numerically approximating solutions to Hamiltonian differential equations, including bounded energy error and the preservation of invariant sets. Two important Hamiltonian systems encountered in plasma physics—the flow of magnetic field lines and the guiding center motion of magnetized charged particles—resist symplectic integration by conventional means because the dynamics are most naturally formulated in non-canonical coordinates. New algorithms were recently developed using the variational integration formalism; however, those integrators were found to admit parasitic mode instabilities due to their multistep character. This work eliminates the multistep character, and therefore the parasitic mode instabilities via an adaptation of the variational integration formalism that we deem “degenerate variational integration.” Both the magnetic field line and guiding center Lagrangians are degenerate in the sense that the resultant Euler-Lagrange equations are systems of first-order ordinary differential equations. We show that retaining the same degree of degeneracy when constructing discrete Lagrangians yields one-step variational integrators preserving a non-canonical symplectic structure. Lastly, numerical examples demonstrate the benefits of the new algorithms, including superior stability relative to the existing variational integrators for these systems and superior qualitative behavior relative to non-conservative algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantifying error of lidar and sodar Doppler beam swinging measurements of wind turbine wakes using computational fluid dynamics

Wind-profiling lidars are now regularly used in boundary-layer meteorology and in applications such as wind energy and air quality. Lidar wind profilers exploit the Doppler shift of laser light backscattered from particulates carried by the wind to measure a line-of-sight (LOS) velocity. The Doppler beam swinging (DBS) technique, used by many commercial systems, considers measurements of this LOS velocity in multiple radial directions in order to estimate horizontal and vertical winds. The method relies on the assumption of homogeneous flow across the region sampled by the beams. Using such a system in inhomogeneous flow, such as wind turbine wakes or complex terrain, will result in errors. To quantify the errors expected from such violation of the assumption of horizontal homogeneity, we simulate inhomogeneous flow in the atmospheric boundary layer, notably stably stratified flow past a wind turbine, with a mean wind speed of 6.5 m s -1 at the turbine hub-height of 80 m. This slightly stable case results in 15° of wind direction change across the turbine rotor disk. The resulting flow field is sampled in the same fashion that a lidar samples the atmosphere with the DBS approach, including the lidar range weighting function, enabling quantification of the error in the DBS observations. The observations from the instruments located upwind have small errors, which are ameliorated with time averaging. However, the downwind observations, particularly within the first two rotor diameters downwind from the wind turbine, suffer from errors due to the heterogeneity of the wind turbine wake. Errors in the stream-wise component of the flow approach 30% of the hub-height inflow wind speed close to the rotor disk. Errors in the cross-stream and vertical velocity components are also significant: cross-stream component errors are on the order of 15% of the hub-height inflow wind speed (1.0 m s &minus;1 ) and errors in the vertical velocity measurement exceed the actual vertical velocity. By three rotor diameters downwind, DBS-based assessments of wake wind speed deficits based on the stream-wise velocity can be relied on even within the near wake within 1.0 s -1 (or 15% of the hub-height inflow wind speed), and the cross-stream velocity error is reduced to 8% while vertical velocity estimates are compromised. Furthermore, measurements of inhomogeneous flow such as wind turbine wakes are susceptible to these errors, and interpretations of field observations should account for this uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Consistent Feature Extraction From Vector Fields: Combinatorial Representations and Analysis Under Local Reference Frames

This dissertation presents research on addressing some of the contemporary challenges in the analysis of vector fields—an important type of scientific data useful for representing a multitude of physical phenomena, such as wind flow and ocean currents. In particular, new theories and computational frameworks to enable consistent feature extraction from vector fields are presented. One of the most fundamental challenges in the analysis of vector fields is that their features are defined with respect to reference frames. Unfortunately, there is no single “correct” reference frame for analysis, and an unsuitable frame may cause features of interest to remain undetected, thus creating serious physical consequences. This work develops new reference frames that enable extraction of localized features that other techniques and frames fail to detect. As a result, these reference frames objectify the notion of “correctness” of features for certain goals by revealing the phenomena of importance from the underlying data. An important consequence of using these local frames is that the analysis of unsteady (time-varying) vector fields can be reduced to the analysis of sequences of steady (timeindependent) vector fields, which can be performed using simpler and scalable techniques that allow better data management by accessing the data on a per-time-step basis. Nevertheless, the state-of-the-art analysis of steady vector fields is not robust, as most techniques are numerical in nature. The residing numerical errors can violate consistency with the underlying theory by breaching important fundamental laws, which may lead to serious physical consequences. This dissertation considers consistency as the most fundamental characteristic of computational analysis that must always be preserved, and presents a new discrete theory that uses combinatorial representations and algorithms to provide consistency guarantees during vector field analysis along with the uncertainty visualization of unavoidable discretization errors. Together, the two main contributions of this dissertation address two important concerns regarding feature extraction from scientific data: correctness and precision. The work presented here also opens new avenues for further research by exploring more-general reference frames and more-sophisticated domain discretizations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inverted initial conditions: Exploring the growth of cosmic structure and voids

We introduce and explore “paired” cosmological simulations. A pair consists of an A and B simulation with initial conditions related by the inversion δ A (x,t initial ) = –δ B (x,t initial ) (underdensities substituted for overdensities and vice versa). We argue that the technique is valuable for improving our understanding of cosmic structure formation. The A and B fields are by definition equally likely draws from ΛCDM initial conditions, and in the linear regime evolve identically up to the overall sign. As nonlinear evolution takes hold, a region that collapses to form a halo in simulation A will tend to expand to create a void in simulation B. Applications include (i) contrasting the growth of A-halos and B-voids to test excursion-set theories of structure formation, (ii) cross-correlating the density field of the A and B universes as a novel test for perturbation theory, and (iii) canceling error terms by averaging power spectra between the two boxes. Furthermore, generalizations of the method to more elaborate field transformations are suggested.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Automatic Calibration of a Geomechanical Model from Sparse Data for Estimating Stress in Deep Geological Formations

Summary In this study, we demonstrate geomechanical modeling with fully automatic parameter calibration to estimate the full geomechanical stress fields of a prospective US carbon dioxide (CO2) storage site, based on sparse measurement data. The goal is to compute full stress tensor field estimates (principal stresses and orientations) that are maximally compatible with observations within the constraints of the model assumptions, thereby extending pointwise, incomplete partial stress measurement to a simulated full formation stress field, as well as a rough assessment of the associated error. We use the Perch site, located in Otsego County, Michigan, USA, as our case study. The input data consist of partial stress tensor information inferred from in-situ borehole tests, geophysical well logs, and processing of seismic data. A static earth model (SEM) of the site was developed, and geomechanical simulation functionality of the open-source MATLAB Reservoir Simulation Toolbox (MRST) was used to model the stress field. Adjoint-based nonlinear optimization was used to adjust boundary conditions and material properties to calibrate simulated results of observations. Results were interpreted through a Bayesian framework. The focus of this paper is to demonstrate how the fully automatic calibration procedure works and discuss the results obtained; it does not attempt a detailed analysis of the stress field in the context of the proposed CO2 storage initiatives. Our work is part of a larger effort to noninvasively determine in-situ stresses in deep formations considered for CO2 storage. Guided by previously published research on geomechanical model calibration, our work presents a novel calibration approach supporting a potentially large number of linear or nonlinear calibration parameters to produce results optimally agreeing with available measurements and thus extend partial pointwise estimates to full tensor fields compatible with the physics of the site.

Engineering↗

Randomization in Characterizing the Subsurface

Current methods for characterizing Earth’s subsurface, such as standard inverse techniques, are not sufficiently accurate to meet the needs of modern applications in the fields of energy exploration, environmental management, and global security. While increasing the quantity of field measurements and robustness of the applied data-/model-analysis methods can improve accuracy, such approaches can be computationally impractical for large data sets and complex site conditions. Thus, there is a need to develop economically-feasible and robust computational methods while maintaining accuracy. For example, in-field drilling for geothermal operations may yield high failure rates, resulting in unacceptably high costs; errors and/or large uncertainties in the estimated subsurface characteristics are the main impediment to the successful siting of an in-field well. This problem is not uniquely geothermal. Accurate characterization of uncertain subsurface properties is also essential for monitoring storage of carbon dioxide, estimating pathways of subsurface contaminant transport, and supervising ground-based nuclear-explosion tests.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗