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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Parametric and Sensitivity Analysis of a Steam Generator Model Using Python and Machine-Learning Tools

For this study, we used Python and machine-learning tools to perform a comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis on a steam generator (SG) model. (The Python model was based on a previously completed MATLAB framework for the Holtec SMR-160 SG.) We investigated the influence of various input parameters (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, and heat exchanger effectiveness) on the system’s output. With machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN), which was developed at Idaho National Laboratory, we were then able to perform an automated analysis of the SG inputs’ effect on the HTC. The analysis results give valuable insights into the performance and optimization of SG systems. We found the inlet mass flow rate (MFR) to have the greatest impact on the HTC, followed closely by the inlet temperature, and then pressure. Shifting of the input parameters causes the location of the maximum HTC along the SG length to change incrementally. The cold leg (CL) MFR was also found to impact the HTC magnitude as well as the location of the maximum HTC. At between 0.4–0.9 of the total SG length, the input parameters experience maximum impact on the HTC, leading us to suggest that sensors be efficiently placed on the SG so as to closely and effectively monitor thermal-hydraulic properties during reactor operation. We also found that the sensitivity data calculated manually agrees with the RAVEN – based data, confirming the same range of maximum sensitivity. However, the RAVEN-based analysis showed that cold leg pressure and hot leg temperature have a greater impact on the heat transfer coefficient than the mass flow rate, implying that a manual sensitivity study taking only two samples is not accurate.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast uncertainty estimates in deep learning interatomic potentials

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and material properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point estimates of their predictions and do not come with predictive uncertainties associated with these estimates. Existing uncertainty quantification efforts have primarily leveraged the standard deviation of predictions across an ensemble of independently trained neural networks. This incurs a large computational overhead in both training and prediction, resulting in order-of-magnitude more expensive predictions. Here, we propose a method to estimate the predictive uncertainty based on a single neural network without the need for an ensemble. This allows us to obtain uncertainty estimates with virtually no additional computational overhead over standard training and inference. We demonstrate that the quality of the uncertainty estimates matches those obtained from deep ensembles. We further examine the uncertainty estimates of our methods and deep ensembles across the configuration space of our test system and compare the uncertainties to the potential energy surface. Finally, we study the efficacy of the method in an active learning setting and find the results to match an ensemble-based strategy at order-of-magnitude reduced computational cost.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection for Wide-Area Protection Using Machine Learning

Wide-area protection scheme (WAPS) provides system-wide protection by detecting and mitigating small and large-scale disturbances that are difficult to resolve using local protection schemes. As this protection scheme is evolving from a substation-based distributed remedial action scheme (DRAS) to the control center-based centralized RAS (CRAS), it presents severe challenges to their cybersecurity because of its heavy reliance on an insecure grid communication, and its compromise would lead to system failure. This article presents an architecture and methodology for developing a cyber-physical anomaly detection system (CPADS) that utilizes synchrophasor measurements and properties of network packets to detect data integrity and communication failure attacks on measurement and control signals in CRAS. The proposed machine leaning-based methodology applies a rules-based approach to select relevant input features, utilizes variational mode decomposition (VMD) and decision tree (DT) algorithms to develop multiple classification models, and performs final event identification using a rules-based decision logic. Here, we have evaluated the proposed methodology of CPADS using the IEEE 39 bus system for several performance measures (accuracy, recall, precision, and F-measure) in a cyber-physical testbed environment. Furthermore, our experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm (VMD-DT) of CPADS outperforms the existing machine learning classifiers during noisy and noise-free measurements while incurring an acceptable processing overhead.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Restoring Critical Loads In Resilient Distribution Systems using A Curriculum Learned Controller

In this paper, we propose a curriculum learned reinforcement learning (RL) controller to facilitate distribution system critical load restoration (CLR), leveraging RL's fast online response and its outstanding optimal sequential control capability. Like many grid control problems, CLR is complicated due to the large control action space and renewable uncertainty in a heavily constrained non-linear environment with strong intertemporal dependency. The nature of the problem oftentimes causes the RL policy to converge to a poor-performing local optimum if learned directly. To overcome this, we design a two-stage curriculum in which the RL agent will learn generation control and load restoration decision under different scenarios progressively. Via curriculum learning, the trained RL controller is expected to achieve a better control performance, with critical loads restored as rapidly and reliably as possible. Using the IEEE 13-bus test system, we illustrate the performance of the RL controller trained by the proposed curriculum-based method.

curriculum learning↗
NASA NTRS2013

Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.

Game Theory↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards data-driven constitutive modelling for granular materials via micromechanics-informed deep learning

The analytical description of path-dependent elastic-plastic responses of a granular system is highly complicated because of continuously evolving microstructures and strain localisation within the system undergoing deformation. This study offers an alternative to the current analytical paradigm by developing micromechanics-informed machine-learning based constitutive modelling approaches for granular materials. A set of critical variables associated with the constitutive behaviour of granular materials are identified through an incremental stress-strain relationship analysis. Depending on the strategy to exploit the priori micromechanical knowledge, three different training strategies are explored. The first model uses only the measurable external variables to make stress predictions; the second model utilises a directed graph to link all the external strain sequences and internal microstructural evolution variables into a single prediction model comprised of a series of sub-mappings, and the third model explicitly integrates the physically important non-temporal properties with external strain paths into training through an enhanced Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). These three models show satisfactory agreement with unseen test specimens based on multi-directional loading cases. The basic features and potential applications of each model are explained. Lastly, the key factors for constitutive training and limitations of the current work are also discussed in detail.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Online Learning for Commercial Buildings

There has been an increased interest in designing optimization based techniques for the control of building heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems for either improving the energy efficiency of buildings or providing ancillary services to the electric grid. The performance of such prediction-based control techniques heavily rely on the model of a building’s thermal dynamics. However, the development of high fidelity building thermal dynamic models is challenging given the presence of large uncertainties that affect thermal loads in buildings such as building envelope performance, thermal mass, internal heat gains as well as occupants' behavior. In this paper, we propose a method to identify both a resistive-capacitive parametric model, and non -parametric load uncertainties using measured input-output data. The parametric model is obtained using semi-parametric regression, whereas the non-parametric part is based on Random Forest, where regression trees are used to derive the dependency of non-parametric terms on both building operation parameters and ambient temperature. The effectiveness of the method is evaluated using experimental data collected from an office building at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) campus. The proposed methodology was observed to provide improved accuracy over appropriate baseline strategies, when predicting indoor air temperatures.

Dong, Jin↗
DOE OSTI2019

Land productivity and land availability for growing bioenergy crop in the Contiguous US. Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (CABBI)

The dataset consists of two types of data: the estimate of land productivity (the maximum productivity, MP) and the estimate of land that has low productivity for any major crops planted in the Contiguous United States and then may be available for growing bioenergy crops (the marginal land, ML). All data items are in GeoTiff format, under the World Geodetic System (WGS) 84 project, and with a resolution of 0.0020810045 degree (~250 m). The MP values are calculated based on machine learning model estimated yields of major crops in the CONUS, and its expected value (MP_mean.tif), and associated uncertainty (MP_IDP.tif). The ML availability data have two versions: a deterministic version and a version with uncertainty. The deterministic MLs are determined as the land pixels with expected MP values falling in the range defined in the following criteria, and the MLs with uncertainty are determined as the probability that the MP value of a land pixel falls in the range defined in the following criteria: Criteria_____Description S1________ Current crop and pasture land with MP <= P50 S2________ Current crop and pasture land with MP <= P25 S3________ S1 + current grass and shrub land with P25 < MP < P50 S4________ S2 + current grass and shrub land with P10 < MP < P25 Economic__ Current crop and pasture land with potential profitability < 0 Here P10, P25 and P50 are the 10th, 25th and 50th percentile of crop MP values

Land productivity↗
NASA NTRS1994

A neural network controller for automated composite manufacturing

At McDonnell Douglas Aerospace (MDA), an artificial neural network based control system has been developed and implemented to control laser heating for the fiber placement composite manufacturing process. This neurocontroller learns an approximate inverse model of the process on-line to provide performance that improves with experience and exceeds that of conventional feedback control techniques. When untrained, the control system behaves as a proportional plus integral (PI) controller. However after learning from experience, the neural network feedforward control module provides control signals that greatly improve temperature tracking performance. Faster convergence to new temperature set points and reduced temperature deviation due to changing feed rate have been demonstrated on the machine. A Cerebellar Model Articulation Controller (CMAC) network is used for inverse modeling because of its rapid learning performance. This control system is implemented in an IBM compatible 386 PC with an A/D board interface to the machine.

Lichtenwalner, Peter F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Lessons Learned from Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment

An Autonomous Science Agent has been flying onboard the Earth Observing One Spacecraft since 2003. This software enables the spacecraft to autonomously detect and responds to science events occurring on the Earth such as volcanoes, flooding, and snow melt. The package includes AI-based software systems that perform science data analysis, deliberative planning, and run-time robust execution. This software is in routine use to fly the EO-l mission. In this paper we briefly review the agent architecture and discuss lessons learned from this multi-year flight effort pertinent to deployment of software agents to critical applications.

Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Anatomy of Software Changes and Bugs in Autonomous Operating System

Cyberphysical systems with autonomous functions are complex pieces of software, consisting of many components, some of which implement autonomous functionality and some may use AI or machine learning algorithms. Software bugs in an autonomous system are of particular concern, as they can have catastrophic consequences. However, detailed studies based on empirical data are rare and therefore these bugs are not well understood. This paper aims to contribute towards filling that gap by investigating the software changes and bugs in Autonomy Operating System (AOS) for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), which consist of 26 components containing about 103,000 lines of code and having a total of 772 bugfixes. Based on the data extracted from the code repository and semi-structured interviews with the developers of AOS, we explore the differences among autonomous software components, components developed using Model-based Software Engineering, and reuse with respect to change proneness, fault proneness, distribution of bugfixes among AOS components and files of these components, and characteristics of bugs of different AOS components. Our results show that the autonomous components were significantly more change prone (measured in number of commits and code churn) and fault prone (measured in bugfixes per KLoC) than non-autonomous components. The distribution of the locations of bugfixes was skewed, both at component and file level (i.e., a small number of components / files contained the majority of bugs). These evidence-based findings provide important insights to researchers and practitioners alike and can be used to efficiently improve the quality and reliability of autonomous systems.

Katerina Goseva-Popstojanova↗
DOE OSTI2017

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

SULI Research Report Paper

The Intelligence and Space Research Group 4 (ISR-4) at the Los Alamos National Laboratory focuses on signal processing and developing space electronics for various national security missions. The Space and Atmospheric Burst Reporting System (SABRS) is a sensing payload designed for nuclear detonation detection. As the sensors from previous payloads become obsolete, the requirement for a novel payload design increases. SABRS Prime is the successor to the previous SABRS payloads and is scheduled for delivery in 2028. As part of the SABRS Prompt Gamma Instrument Interface Board, high frequency signals from silicon photomultiplier tubes need to be split and subsequently transmitted to the Analog to Digital Converter. Prior to developing the Space Grade Instrument Interface Board, evaluation modules with Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components are evaluated and tested under rigorous conditions. Verification of power levels and gain specifications are some of the important steps taken during the evaluation stage. Working on the Signal Splitting Board has enabled me to work with various schematic software applications and learn more about the processes behind designing space grade electronic components. In addition, I conducted research on efficiency improvements for space-based power systems. Changes in design approaches were found to be the most significant sources of improvement. Being able to interact with researchers and peers across various scientific disciplines has given me a better insight into my future pursuits. Working in a R&D environment has cemented my decision to work on space applications for Quantum Sensing and pursue a PhD in Electrical Engineering. The SULI internship program at the Los Alamos National Laboratory has helped me develop the skillset of a researcher, understand the rigorous processes behind developing space grade hardware, and improve my critical thinking abilities to support the development of reliable instrumentation for deep space missions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2018

FAST and Asset-Level Data: Lessons Learned and Insights

This presentation provides an overview of the recently-completed annual collection of Federal motor vehicle fleet data in a new more detailed shape, characterizing the Federal fleet of motor vehicles at the individual level. This data was submitted by Federal agencies through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), a Web-based data collection system developed and maintained by INL under a jointly-funded and -managed program for the US Department of Energy and the US General Services Administration. This presentation will cover some of the lessons learned during this first submission of data in this new shape and will explore a few simple examples of new ways this data can be used to gain insights into the makeup and operation of the Federal motor vehicle fleet.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

3D printed graphene-based self-powered strain sensors for smart tires in autonomous vehicles

The transition of autonomous vehicles into fleets requires an advanced control system design that relies on continuous feedback from the tires. Smart tires enable continuous monitoring of dynamic parameters by combining strain sensing with traditional tire functions. Here, we provide breakthrough in this direction by demonstrating tire-integrated system that combines direct mask-less 3D printed strain gauges, flexible piezoelectric energy harvester for powering the sensors and secure wireless data transfer electronics, and machine learning for predictive data analysis. Ink of graphene based material was designed to directly print strain sensor for measuring tire-road interactions under varying driving speeds, normal load, and tire pressure. A secure wireless data transfer hardware powered by a piezoelectric patch is implemented to demonstrate self-powered sensing and wireless communication capability. Combined, this study significantly advances the design and fabrication of cost-effective smart tires by demonstrating practical self-powered wireless strain sensing capability.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Linear decentralized learning control

The new field of learning control develops controllers that learn to improve their performance at executing a given task, based on experience performing this task. The simplest forms of learning control are based on the same concept as integral control, but operating in the domain of the repetitions of the task. This paper studies the use of such controllers in a decentralized system, such as a robot with the controller for each link acting independently. The basic result of the paper is to show that stability of the learning controllers for all subsystems when the coupling between subsystems is turned off, assures stability of the decentralized learning in the coupled system, provided that the sample time in the digital learning controller is sufficiently short.

Lee, Soo C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗