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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

The Casualidad method for uncertainty evaluation of best-estimate system thermal-hydraulics calculations

The present paper deals with the description of the salient features of three independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. The first approach is the 'standard' one and the most used at the industrial level: it is based upon the selection of input uncertain parameters, on assigning related ranges of variations and, possibly, PDF (Probability Density Functions) and on performing a suitable number of code runs to get the combined effect of variation on the results. In the second approach the uncertainty derives from the comparison between relevant measured data and results of corresponding code calculations. The third approach is based on the Bayesian inference technique and on the availability of experimental data by which computer model predictions can be improved and the ranges of variation of (in theory) 'all' input parameters can be characterized. More details are provided in respect with the third approach that has been named CASUALIDAD (Code with the capability of Adjoint Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis by Internal Data Adjustment and assimilation). (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Extracting Charge and Mass Information from Highly Congested Mass Spectra Using Fourier-Domain Harmonics

Native mass spectra of large, polydisperse biomolecules with repeated subunits, such as lipoprotein Nanodiscs, can often be challenging to analyze by conventional methods. The presence of tens of closely spaced, overlapping peaks in these mass spectra can make charge state, total mass, or subunit mass determinations difficult to measure by traditional methods. Recently, we introduced a Fourier Transform-based algorithm that can be used to deconvolve highly congested mass spectra for polydisperse ion populations with repeated subunits and facilitate identification of the charge states, subunit mass, charge-state-specific, and total mass distributions present in the ion population. Here, we extend this method by investigating the advantages of using overtone peaks in the Fourier spectrum, particularly for mass spectra with low signal-to-noise and poor resolution. This method is illustrated for lipoprotein Nanodisc mass spectra acquired on three common platforms, including the first reported native mass spectrum of empty “large” Nanodiscs assembled with MSP1E3D1 and over 300 noncovalently associated lipids. It is shown that overtone peaks contain nearly identical stoichiometry and charge state information to fundamental peaks but can be significantly better resolved, resulting in more reliable reconstruction of charge-state-specific mass spectra and peak width characterization. We further demonstrate how these parameters can be used to improve results from Bayesian spectral fitting algorithms, such as UniDec. .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous sputter synthesis of thin film nitrides with composition controlled by Bayesian optimization of optical plasma emission

Autonomous experimentation has emerged as an efficient approach to accelerate the pace of material discovery. Although instruments for autonomous synthesis have become popular in molecular and polymer science, solution processing of hybrid materials, and nanoparticles, examples of autonomous tools for physical vapor deposition are scarce yet important for the semiconductor industry. Here, we report the design and implementation of an autonomous workflow for sputter deposition of thin films with controlled composition, leveraging a highly automated sputtering reactor custom-controlled by Python, optical emission spectroscopy (OES), and a Bayesian optimization algorithm. We modeled film composition, measured by x-ray fluorescence, as a linear function of plasma emission lines monitored during co-sputtering from elemental Zn and Ti targets in an N 2 and Ar atmosphere. A Bayesian control algorithm, informed by OES, navigates the space of sputtering power to fabricate films with user-defined compositions by minimizing the absolute error between desired and measured optical emission signals. We validated our approach by autonomously fabricating Zn x Ti 1-x N y films that deviate from the targeted cation composition by a relative ±3.5%, even for 15 nm thin films, demonstrating that the proposed approach can reliably synthesize thin films with a specific composition and minimal human interference. Moreover, the proposed method can be extended to more difficult synthesis experiments where plasma intensity lines depend non-linearly on pressure, or the elemental sticking coefficients strongly depend on the substrate temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Dark Energy Survey Year 3 high-redshift sample: selection, characterization, and analysis of galaxy clustering

ABSTRACT The fiducial cosmological analyses of imaging surveys like DES typically probe the Universe at redshifts z < 1. We present the selection and characterization of high-redshift galaxy samples using DES Year 3 data, and the analysis of their galaxy clustering measurements. In particular, we use galaxies that are fainter than those used in the previous DES Year 3 analyses and a Bayesian redshift scheme to define three tomographic bins with mean redshifts around z ∼ 0.9, 1.2, and 1.5, which extend the redshift coverage of the fiducial DES Year 3 analysis. These samples contain a total of about 9 million galaxies, and their galaxy density is more than 2 times higher than those in the DES Year 3 fiducial case. We characterize the redshift uncertainties of the samples, including the usage of various spectroscopic and high-quality redshift samples, and we develop a machine-learning method to correct for correlations between galaxy density and survey observing conditions. The analysis of galaxy clustering measurements, with a total signal to noise S/N ∼ 70 after scale cuts, yields robust cosmological constraints on a combination of the fraction of matter in the Universe Ωm and the Hubble parameter h, $\Omega _m h = 0.195^{+0.023}_{-0.018}$, and 2–3 per cent measurements of the amplitude of the galaxy clustering signals, probing galaxy bias and the amplitude of matter fluctuations, bσ8. A companion paper (in preparation) will present the cross-correlations of these high-z samples with cosmic microwave background lensing from Planck and South Pole Telescope, and the cosmological analysis of those measurements in combination with the galaxy clustering presented in this work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment

Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa (κ): 0.63 and 0.62] for both the datasets. The ROC curves demonstrate the utility of the cut-off feature in the predictive ability of the ensemble model. In conclusion, this feature provides an additional control to the regulators in grading a chemical based on the severity of the toxic endpoint under study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic constrained Bayesian inversion for transpiration cooling

Abstract To enable safe operations in applications such as rocket combustion chambers, the materials require cooling to avoid material damage. Here, transpiration cooling is a promising cooling technique. Numerous studies investigate possibilities to simulate and evaluate the complex cooling mechanism. One naturally arising question is the amount of coolant required to ensure a safe operation. To study this, we introduce an approach that determines the posterior probability distribution of the Reynolds number using an inverse problem and constraining the maximum temperature of the system under parameter uncertainties. Mathematically, this chance inequality constraint is dealt with by a generalized polynomial chaos expansion of the system. The posterior distribution will be evaluated by different Markov chain Monte Carlo based methods. A novel method for the constrained case is proposed and tested among others on two‐dimensional transpiration cooling models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted identification of potential sources of bias in measurements of prompt-fission neutron spectra

Unrecognized sources of uncertainty (USU) can bias the reported mean and/or covariance of experimental nuclear data. These biases, in turn, can propagate through evaluated nuclear data to application simulations or may poorly inform nuclear theory that is fitted to the experimental data. Such unknown sources of bias must be tied to the inherent physical constituents of the measurements such as the characteristics of a detector response or a background reduction technique. Here, in this article, a sparse Bayesian learning model is used to support experts in their efforts to identify and characterize USU in experimental prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) for spontaneous fissioning of 252 Cf by linking observed biases to features of the measurement system. Three different bias components were found. The first acts as a verification case for the algorithm as it identifies a bias coming from a well-known source related to the use of 6 Li in the neutron detection system. The second two cases demonstrate how this method can benefit the evaluation of experimental nuclear data by identifying, quantifying, and relating unknown biases to potential causes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of a Geochemically Informed Leak Detection (GILD) Model to CO 2 Injection Sites on the United States Gulf Coast

The Gulf Coast region possesses great potential for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO 2 storage. A geochemically informed leak detection (GILD) model has been applied to CO 2 injection sites on the Gulf Coast with considerations of measurement variability. The Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County, Texas, was chosen to demonstrate the method. Based on background data from wells in the area, combinations of mineral and fluid compositions were used to create 23 scenarios for the geochemical model. The output from the geochemical model was used to identify sensitive monitoring species, and response functions were generated for these as a function of the CO 2 leakage concentration. The sources of measurement variability for background conditions were characterized from the Jasper aquifer background data, and then normalized using the coefficient of variation of each species across the monitoring wells. Bayesian belief network (BBN) models were constructed, and measurement variability of different levels were added to compare leak detection probabilities. Increasing measurement variability decreased the power to detect a leak of a given size. For a moderately high CO 2 concentration of 0.2 mol/kg, the probability of detecting this leakage effect using pH as the monitoring variable in an aquifer with calcite decreases from 98% (no measurement variability) to 61% (medium variability) to 33% (high variability). The loss in power of the sampling protocol with increasing measurement variability is similar in magnitude when Ca 2+ or HCO 3 - is used as the monitoring parameter, but only for aquifers with calcite.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

"Sintering" Models and In-Situ Experiments: Data Assimilation for Microstructure Prediction in SLS Additive Manufacturing of Nylon Components

Selective laser sintering methods are workhorses for additively manufacturing polymer-based components. The ease of rapid prototyping also means it is easy to produce illicit components. It is necessary to have a data-calibrated in-situ physical model of the build process in order to predict expected and defective microstructure characteristics that inform component provenance. Toward this end, sintering models are calibrated and characteristics such as component defects are explored. This is accomplished by assimilating multiple data streams, imaging analysis, and computational model predictions in an adaptive Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm. From these data sources, along with a phase-field model, bulk porosity distributions are inferred. Model parameters are constrained to physically-relevant search directions by sensitivity analysis, and then matched to predictions using adaptive sampling. Using this feedback loop, data-constrained estimates of sintering model parameters along with uncertainty bounds are obtained.

3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, polymer, sint↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reweighting the quark Sivers function with STAR jet data

The Bayesian reweighting procedure is applied for the first time to a TMD distribution, the quark Sivers function extracted from SIDIS data. By exploiting the recent published single spin asymmetry data for the inclusive jet production in p^\uparrow p p ↑ p collisions from the STAR collaboration at RHIC, we show how such a procedure allows to incorporate the information contained in the new data set, without the need of re-fitting, and to explore a much wider x x region compared to SIDIS measurements. The reweighting method is also extended to the case of asymmetric errors, and the results show a significant improvement on the knowledge of the quark Sivers function.

Flore, Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2016

High contrast imaging with Spitzer: constraining the frequency of giant planets out to 1000 au separations

We report results of a re-analysis of archival Spitzer IRAC direct imaging surveys encompassing a variety of nearby stars. Our sample is generated from the combined observations of 73 young stars (median age, distance, spectral type = 85 Myr, 23.3 pc, G5) and 48 known exoplanet host stars with unconstrained ages (median distance, spectral type = 22.6 pc, G5). While the small size of Spitzer provides a lower resolution than 8 m class AO-assisted ground-based telescopes, which have been used for constraining the frequency of 0.5–13 M {sub J} planets at separations of 10–10{sup 2} au, its exquisite infrared sensitivity provides the ability to place unmatched constraints on the planetary populations at wider separations. Here we apply sophisticated high-contrast techniques to our sample in order to remove the stellar point-spread function and to open up sensitivity to planetary mass companions down to 5″ separations. This enables sensitivity to 0.5–13 M {sub J} planets at physical separations on the order of 10{sup 2}–10{sup 3} au, allowing us to probe a parameter space that has not previously been systematically explored to any similar degree of sensitivity. Based on a color and proper motion analysis, we do not record any planetary detections. Exploiting this enhanced survey sensitivity, employing Monte Carlo simulations with a Bayesian approach, and assuming a mass distribution of dn/dm∝m{sup −1.31}, we constrain (at 95% confidence) a population of 0.5–13 M {sub J} planets at separations of 100–1000 au with an upper frequency limit of 9%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Calibration of Expensive Simulation Models

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at different parameter settings. Using intelligent and adaptive selection of parameters to build the emulator can drastically improve the efficiency of the calibration process. The article proposes a sequential framework with a novel criterion for parameter selection that targets learning the posterior density of the parameters. The emergent behavior from this criterion is that exploration happens by selecting parameters in uncertain posterior regions while simultaneously exploitation happens by selecting parameters in regions of high posterior density. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed method are illustrated using several simulation experiments and a nuclear physics reaction model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trustworthiness modeling and evaluation for a nearly autonomous management and control system

The Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system supports the advanced reactor operation by recommending control actions to operators based on real-time measurements and digital twins (DTs) learning from the knowledge base. To enable the safe and reliable use of autonomous technologies, NAMAC and its recommendations should be trustworthy to operators and regulators at both the design and operation stages. This study proposes a NAMAC trustworthiness modeling and evaluation framework supported by trustworthiness ontologies and evidence-based approaches. The development-time and run-time ontologies are separately constructed and then converted to Bayesian networks to quantitatively evaluate the NAMAC trustworthiness. This evaluation is demonstrated by collecting and characterizing evidence from NAMAC practices, such as the development and assessment of the NAMAC system, data coverage assessment, and the training and optimizations of neural-network-based DTs. Our proposed approach can aggregate various trustworthiness attributes of complex artificial-intelligence-supported systems for safety-critical applications. It also considers the interaction between different DTs and extends beyond the trustworthiness evaluation of a single DT. In conclusion, the evidence-based method enhances the transparency of the trustworthiness modeling and evaluation processes and helps identify uncertainties and subjectivity involved in the processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗