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At least 1,243 records · Page 69

HCMM energy budget data as a model input for assessing regions of high potential groundwater pollution

The author has identified the following significant results. Day thermal data were analyzed to assess depth to groundwater in the test site. HCMM apparent temperature was corrected for atmospheric effects using lake temperature of the Oahe Reservoir in central South Dakota. Soil surface temperatures were estimated using an equation developed for ground studies. A significant relationship was found between surface soil temperature and depth to groundwater, as well as between the surface soil-maximum air temperature differential and soil water content (% of field capacity) in the 0 cm and 4 cm layer of the profile. Land use for the data points consisted of row crops, small grains, stubble, and pasture.

Moore, D. G.↗

Enabling Floating Solar Photovoltaic (FPV) Deployment: FPV Technical Potential Assessment for Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia (SE Asia) is a region with growing energy demand and increasing development of floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) systems, which can help meet countries' renewable energy and energy security goals. This study uses a high-level geospatial assessment methodology to estimate the technical potential for monofacial and bifacial FPV on reservoirs and natural waterbodies in the ten countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Technical potential consists of the suitable waterbody area for FPV development (km2), the capacity of FPV that could be installed on this suitable area (MW), and the annual energy that could be generated from these installations (GWh/year). This first-of-its-kind FPV technical potential assessment for SE Asia can help policymakers and planners better understand the role that FPV could play in meeting regional energy demand and can ultimately guide investment decisions. Although this work focuses on SE Asia, the methodology may also be applicable for countries in other regions, with adaptations. The FPV technical potential results are also integrated into the Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer online tool (https://www.re-explorer.org/).

bifacial↗

Evaluating and Countering the Insider Threat to the Radioactive Source Supply Chain

The modern supply chain is a global enterprise and little drove this home more than the global COVID-19 pandemic which sent economic shockwaves throughout the world. Many goods became scarce, as products were delayed, in limited supply, or simply not available. The suddenly diminished supply collided with still high demand and led to greatly increased costs. This was particularly true for the radioactive source supply chain. The pandemic introduced extensive delays for construction projects, slowed the transport of radiological materials to facilities, interrupted treatment deliveries, and impaired the mobility of contractors across the industry. All of these concerns not only adversely affected the economy, but also impacted the safety and security of radiological material, potentially raising national security concerns. The vulnerability of the supply chain, a critical element in an increasingly interconnected world, was exposed. One example that challenged the adaptive capacity of the overall supply chain is the Ever Given container ship, which became stuck in the Suez Canal in 2020. This accident immediately shut down shipments that accounted for 12% of global trade, with long-term impacts estimated to be much larger. Developing the ability to anticipate and react in real-time to sudden changes has quickly become a necessity, particularly in industries that deal with the transport of hazardous material. The reaction to these dramatic incidents was to largely focus attention and resources on protecting the supply chain from external threats. However, the threat to the radioactive material supply chain from insiders intimately involved in the process may be even greater and remains a blind spot that requires increased attention. Recent events revealed the blueprint for targeting and disrupting that supply chain, so the potential for a malicious insider—or a manipulated, unwitting insider—to take advantage of this vulnerability is elevated, creating security concerns for radiological industries. This paper examines and analyzes the potential insider threat to the radioactive source supply chain and recommends steps to take to counter this possibility.

Kinney, Justin↗

An evaluation of the carbon sequestration potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Strata of the Illinois and Michigan basins

The studies summarized herein were conducted during 2009–2014 to investigate the utility of the Knox Group and St. Peter Sandstone deeply buried geologic strata for underground storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), a practice called CO 2 sequestration (CCS). In the subsurface of the midwestern United States, the Knox and associated strata extend continuously over an area approaching 500,000 sq. km, about three times as large as the State of Illinois. Although parts of this region are underlain by the deeper Mt. Simon Sandstone, which has been proven by other Department of Energy-funded research as a resource for CCS, the Knox strata may be an additional CCS resource for some parts of the Midwest and may be the sole geologic storage (GS) resource for other parts. One group of studies assembles, analyzes, and presents regional-scale and point-scale geologic information that bears on the suitability of the geologic formations of the Knox for a CCS project. New geologic and geo-engineering information was developed through a small-scale test of CO 2 injection into a part of the Knox, conducted in western Kentucky. These studies and tests establish the expectation that, at least in some locations, geologic formations within the Knox will (a) accept a commercial-scale flow rate of CO 2 injected through a drilled well; (b) hold a commercial-scale mass of CO 2 (at least 30 million tons) that is injected over decades; and (c) seal the injected CO 2 within the injection formations for hundreds to thousands of years. In CCS literature, these three key CCS-related attributes are called injectivity, capacity, and containment. The regional-scale studies show that reservoir and seal properties adequate for commercial-scale CCS in a Knox reservoir are likely to extend generally throughout the Illinois and Michigan Basins. Information distinguishing less prospective subregions from more prospective fairways is included in this report. Another group of studies report the results of reservoir flow simulations that estimate the progress and outcomes of hypothetical CCS projects carried out within the Knox (particularly within the Potosi Dolomite subunit, which, in places, is highly permeable) and within the overlying St. Peter Sandstone. In these studies, the regional-scale information and a limited amount of detailed data from specific boreholes is used as the basis for modeling the CO 2 injection process (dynamic modeling). The simulation studies were conducted progressively, with each successive study designed to refine the conclusions of the preceding one or to answer additional questions. The simulation studies conclude that at Decatur, Illinois or a geologically similar site, the Potosi Dolomite reservoir may provide adequate injectivity and capacity for commercial-scale injection through a single injection well. This conclusion depends on inferences from seismic-data attributes that certain highly permeable horizons observed in the wells represent laterally persistent, porous vuggy zones that are vertically more common than initially evident from wellbore data. Lateral persistence of vuggy zones is supported by isotopic evidence that the conditions that caused vug development (near-surface processes) were of regional rather than local scale. Other studies address aspects of executing and managing a CCS project that targets a Knox reservoir. These studies cover well drilling, public interactions, representation of datasets and conclusions using geographic information system (GIS) platforms, and risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Market Feedback Framework for Improved Estimates of the Arbitrage Value of Energy Storage Using Price-Taker Models

Price-taker (PT) models are often used to assess the potential value or revenue of energy arbitrage opportunities for energy storage in wholesale markets. But as greater amounts of energy storage are deployed on the grid, current PT models fail to predict the effects that energy storage itself can have on market prices. This can lead to an overestimation of the economic value of storage and an inability to capture price suppression. In this paper, we propose the use of a modified PT model to simulate the impact of increased storage deployment on energy prices and the resulting impact on revenue. Our method uses a gradient-boosting regressor to estimate the impact on prices, and we apply our method on historical price data from the PJM and California Independent System Operator wholesale markets. We use this approach to explore possible causes of electricity price suppression that occur from storage capacity additions, which is generally not possible with PT models.

arbitrage↗

Assessing wind power operating costs in the United States: Results from a survey of wind industry experts

This paper draws on a survey of wind industry professionals to clarify trends in the operational expenditures (OpEx) of U.S. land-based wind power plants. We find that average all-in lifetime OpEx has declined from approximately $80/kW-yr (~$35/MWh) for projects built in the late 1990s to a level approaching $40/kW-yr (~$11/MWh) for projects built in 2018. Turbine operations and maintenance costs represent the single largest component of overall OpEx and the primary source of cost reductions. We observe wide ranges of OpEx over time; respondents cite a range in average expected costs for recently commissioned projects from $33/kW-yr to $59/kW-yr. We also use historical OpEx learning rates, showing a 9% OpEx reduction for each doubling of global wind capacity, to project a further $5-$8/kW-yr reduction from 2018 to 2040. These findings suggest that continued OpEx reductions may contribute 10% or more of the expected reductions in land-based wind's levelized cost of energy. Moreover, these estimates understate the importance of OpEx owing to the multiplicative effects through which operational advancements influence not only operations and maintenance costs but also component reliability, performance, and plant-level availability - thereby also affecting levelized costs by enhancing annual energy production and plant lifetimes. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available OpEx data, the trends reported here may inform OpEx assumptions used by electric planners, analysts, and modelers. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the wind industry, helping developers and asset owners compare their expectations with historical experience and other industry projections.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A critical appraisal of the zero-multipole method: Structural, thermodynamic, dielectric, and dynamical properties of a water system

We performed extensive and strict tests for the reliability of the zero-multipole (summation) method (ZMM), which is a method for estimating the electrostatic interactions among charged particles in a classical physical system, by investigating a set of various physical quantities. This set covers a broad range of water properties, including the thermodynamic properties (pressure, excess chemical potential, constant volume/pressure heat capacity, isothermal compressibility, and thermal expansion coefficient), dielectric properties (dielectric constant and Kirkwood-G factor), dynamical properties (diffusion constant and viscosity), and the structural property (radial distribution function). We selected a bulk water system, the most important solvent, and applied the widely used TIP3P model to this test. In result, the ZMM works well for almost all cases, compared with the smooth particle mesh Ewald (SPME) method that was carefully optimized. In particular, at cut-off radius of 1.2 nm, the recommended choices of ZMM parameters for the TIP3P system are α ≤ 1 nm{sup −1} for the splitting parameter and l = 2 or l = 3 for the order of the multipole moment. We discussed the origin of the deviations of the ZMM and found that they are intimately related to the deviations of the equilibrated densities between the ZMM and SPME, while the magnitude of the density deviations is very small.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Competing antiferromagnetic-ferromagnetic states in a d 7 Kitaev honeycomb magnet

The Kitaev model is a rare example of an analytically solvable and physically instantiable Hamiltonian yielding a topological quantum spin liquid ground state. Here we report signatures of Kitaev spin liquid physics in the honeycomb magnet Li 3 Co 2 SbO 6 , built of high-spin d 7 (Co 2+ ) ions, in contrast to the more typical low-spin d 5 electron configurations in the presence of large spin-orbit coupling. Neutron powder diffraction measurements, heat capacity, and magnetization studies support the development of a long-range antiferromagnetic order space group of C C 2/m, below T N = 11K at μ 0 H = 0T. The magnetic entropy recovered between T = 2 and 50 K is estimated to be 0.6Rln2, in good agreement with the value expected for systems close to a Kitaev quantum spin liquid state. The temperature-dependent magnetic order parameter demonstrates a β value of 0.19(3), consistent with XY anisotropy and in-plane ordering, with Ising-like interactions between layers. Further, we observe a spin-flop-driven crossover to ferromagnetic order with space group of C2/m under an applied magnetic field of μ 0 H ≈ 0.7T at T = 2K. Magnetic structure analysis demonstrates these magnetic states are competing at finite applied magnetic fields even below the spin-flop transition. Both the d 7 compass model, a quantitative comparison of the specific heat of Li 3 Co 2 SbO 6 , and related honeycomb cobaltates to the anisotropic Kitaev model further support proximity to a Kitaev spin liquid state. Furthermore, this material demonstrates the rich playground of high-spin d 7 systems for spin liquid candidates and complements known d 5 Ir- and Ru-based materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Soboba Community Energy Solar Project – Phase 1

Since time immemorial the descendants of the Soboba people are those whom have lived on and occupied the land that is presently known as the cities of San Jacinto, Hemet, Valle Vista and Winchester. On June 19, 1883, President Chester Arthur by Executive Order established the Soboba Indian Reservation, a 3,172-acre tract which included the Soboba village and the adjacent hills. The President had limited authority as he was only able to set aside public land for the establishment of a reservation and had no authority to take private land. Thus the Soboba village; cultivated lands and major springs were part of Rancho San Jacinto Viejo and belonged to Matthew Byrne. Today the Soboba Indian Reservation lies in the lower reaches of the San Jacinto Mountains, across the San Jacinto River from the city of San Jacinto. The Soboba Band of Luiseño Indians was awarded a community solar grant through the U.S. Department of Energy. The incorporated cities of San Jacinto and Hemet, and the unincorporated community of Valle Vista border the Reservation. All three of these surrounding communities have experienced tremendous population growth over the past two decades, with slower growth during the recent economic downturn. The Tribal community that benefits from under this grant includes 1,161 enrolled members, the majority of which live on the reservation. Nearly 41% of the enrolled members are youth, age 18 and under. The elders and community leaders value preserving and maintaining the Luiseño and Cahuilla cultures and Tribal structure for future generations. The proposed project was administered from the Tribal Administration offices located on the reservation. The Soboba Tribal Government consists of five Tribal Members who are elected by the general membership to Tribal Council for a staggered two year term. The Chairman/Chairwoman is elected by a majority vote of the general membership but the positions for Vice-Chair, Tribal Secretary, Tribal Treasurer and Sergeant at Arms are decided by the elected council. The Soboba Tribal Administration encompasses several departments that serve the needs of the Tribe, the Reservation and the general public. They assist in day-to-day Tribal operations, public safety, Tribal family services, Native American assistance to needy families, cultural preservation, and Tribal environmental protection of natural resources, along with the monitoring of progress and needs of its Enterprises and the general public. The Tribe’s long term energy vision is to become self-sufficient and thereby attain greater control of its destiny, to control costs in view of rapidly rising electric utility expenses, and to maximize the use of renewable energy consistent with sustainable development practices. The project is a Renewable Energy System, specifically a ground mounted, fixed tilt, solar photovoltaic (PV) generating system with a rated capacity of 1.0MWac. The solar generated power serves the electric needs of the affected meters. It benefits every Tribal member since the cost of running the community Tribal facilities, including electric bills, comes out of the General Fund. The estimated 20 year project savings of $ 6,418,064 can be re-directed to other vital community needs, and the project will provide additional jobs for Tribal members. The project has been thoroughly researched and is ready to implement as soon as funding is approved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Soboba Community Energy Solar Project - Phase 2

This is the final technical report for the Soboba Band of Luiseno Indians' second community solar project. Since time immemorial the descendants of the Soboba people are those whom have lived on and occupied the land that is presently known as the cities of San Jacinto, Hemet, Valle Vista and Winchester. On June 19, 1883, President Chester Arthur by Executive Order established the Soboba Indian Reservation, a 3,172-acre tract which included the Soboba village and the adjacent hills. The President had limited authority as he was only able to set aside public land for the establishment of a reservation and had no authority to take private land. Thus the Soboba village; cultivated lands and major springs were part of Rancho San Jacinto Viejo and belonged to Matthew Byrne. Today the Soboba Indian Reservation lies in the lower reaches of the San Jacinto Mountains, across the San Jacinto River from the city of San Jacinto. The Soboba Band of Luiseño Indians was awarded a community solar grant through the U.S. Department of Energy. The incorporated cities of San Jacinto and Hemet, and the unincorporated community of Valle Vista border the Reservation. All three of these surrounding communities have experienced tremendous population growth over the past two decades, with slower growth during the recent economic downturn. The Tribal community that benefits from under this grant includes 1,161 enrolled members, the majority of which live on the reservation. Nearly 41% of the enrolled members are youth, age 18 and under. The elders and community leaders value preserving and maintaining the Luiseño and Cahuilla cultures and Tribal structure for future generations. The proposed project was administered from the Tribal Administration offices located on the reservation. The Soboba Tribal Government consists of five Tribal Members who are elected by the general membership to Tribal Council for a staggered two year term. The Chairman/Chairwoman is elected by a majority vote of the general membership but the positions for Vice-Chair, Tribal Secretary, Tribal Treasurer and Sergeant at Arms are decided by the elected council. The Soboba Tribal Administration encompasses several departments that serve the needs of the Tribe, the Reservation and the general public. They assist in day-to-day Tribal operations, public safety, Tribal family services, Native American assistance to needy families, cultural preservation, and Tribal environmental protection of natural resources, along with the monitoring of progress and needs of its Enterprises and the general public. The Tribe’s long term energy vision is to become self-sufficient and thereby attain greater control of its destiny, to control costs in view of rapidly rising electric utility expenses, and to maximize the use of renewable energy consistent with sustainable development practices. The project is a Renewable Energy System, specifically a ground mounted, fixed tilt, solar photovoltaic (PV) generating system with a rated capacity of 1.0MWac. The solar generated power serves the electric needs of the affected meters. It benefits every Tribal member since the cost of running the community Tribal facilities, including electric bills, comes out of the General Fund. The estimated 20 year project savings of $ 6,418,064 can be re-directed to other vital community needs, and the project will provide additional jobs for Tribal members. The project has been thoroughly researched and is ready to implement as soon as funding is approved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enabling Floating Solar Photovoltaic (FPV) Deployment: FPV Technical Potential Assessment for Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia (SE Asia) is a region with growing energy demand and increasing development of floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) systems, which can help meet countries' renewable energy and energy security goals. This study uses a high-level geospatial assessment methodology to estimate the technical potential for monofacial and bifacial FPV on reservoirs and natural waterbodies in the ten countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Technical potential consists of the suitable waterbody area for FPV development (km 2 ), the capacity of FPV that could be installed on this suitable area (MW), and the annual energy that could be generated from these installations (GWh/year). This first-of-its-kind FPV technical potential assessment for SE Asia can help policymakers and planners better understand the role that FPV could play in meeting regional energy demand and can ultimately guide investment decisions. Although this work focuses on SE Asia, the methodology may also be applicable for countries in other regions, with adaptations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact of wetland decline on decreasing dissolved organic carbon concentrations along the Mississippi River continuum

Prior to discharging to the ocean, large rivers constantly receive inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from tributaries or fringing floodplains and lose DOC via continuous in situ processing along distances that span thousands of kilometers. Current concepts predicting longitudinal changes in DOC mainly focus on in situ processing or exchange with fringing floodplain wetlands, while effects of heterogeneous watershed characteristics are generally ignored. We analyzed results from a 17-year time-series of DOC measurements made at seven sites and three expeditions along the entire Mississippi River main channel with DOC measurements made every 17 km. The results show a clear downstream decrease in DOC concentrations that was consistent throughout the entire study period. Downstream DOC decreases were primarily (~63–71%) a result of constant dilutions by low-DOC tributary water controlled by watershed wetland distribution, while in situ processing played a secondary role. We estimate that from 1780 to 1980 wetland loss due to land-use alterations caused a ca. 58% decrease in in DOC concentrations in the tributaries of the Mississippi River. DOC reductions caused by watershed wetland loss likely impacted the capacity for the river to effectively remove nitrogen via denitrification, which can further exacerbate coastal hypoxia. Lastly, these findings highlight the importance of watershed wetlands in regulating DOC longitudinally along the headland to ocean continuum of major rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar-powered Rankine heat pump for heating and cooling

The design, operation and performance of a familyy of solar heating and cooling systems are discussed. The systems feature a reversible heat pump operating with R-11 as the working fluid and using a motor-driven centrifugal compressor. In the cooling mode, solar energy provides the heat source for a Rankine power loop. The system is operational with heat source temperatures ranging from 155 to 220 F; the estimated coefficient of performance is 0.7. In the heating mode, the vapor-cycle heat pump processes solar energy collected at low temperatures (40 to 80 F). The speed of the compressor can be adjusted so that the heat pump capacity matches the load, allowing a seasonal coefficient of performance of about 8 to be attained.

Rousseau, J.↗

Mission analysis and performance specification studies report, appendix A

The Near Term Hybrid Passenger Vehicle Development Program tasks included defining missions, developing distributions of daily travel and composite driving cycles for these missions, providing information necessary to estimate the potential replacement of the existing fleet by hybrids, and estimating acceleration/gradeability performance requirements for safe operation. The data was then utilized to develop mission specifications, define reference vehicles, develop hybrid vehicle performance specifications, and make fuel consumption estimates for the vehicles. The major assumptions which underlie the approach taken to the mission analysis and development of performance specifications are the following: the daily operating range of a hybrid vehicle should not be limited by the stored energy capacity and the performance of such a vehicle should not be strongly dependent on the battery state of charge.

Source record↗

A Solar System Survey of Forced Librations in Longitude

Physical librations in longitude are forced periodic variations of a body's rotation rate. If the torque producing the librations can be calculated, then observations of the phase and amplitude of librations can provide information on mass distribution, and effective strength of the body. In the near future prospects for observing physical librations look quite promising. Radio interferometric observations of Venus and Mercury may yield sufficiently accurate rotational observations that librations there may be visible. Range measurements from Earth to networks of landed instrument packages on Mars are likely to yield librational data there as well. We compute expected libration amplitudes from physical and orbital parameters of a set of planets and satellites partially motivated by a desire to identify candidates for future observations. Solar system bodies occupy one of three general rotation states: non-resonant states, resonant states, and the synchronous resonant state. Analytical treatments of forced librations were initially motivated by the Moon. Lunar librations were predicted by Newton, first detected telescopically by Bessel, and definitively resolved through lunar laser ranging which has led to quite thorough analysis of of librations for the synchronous case. The synchronous resonant state is commonly observed among satellites. The only known body to exist in a non-synchronous resonance is Mercury which exists in a 3:2 resonance, completing three rotations for every two revolutions about the sun. The analysis of Goldreich and Peale has lead to improved understanding of the general case of half integer resonance states. The dynamics of forced librations in non-resonant rotators has received less attention. While there are few cases in which non-resonant forced librations have been observed, Earth is an important exception, and current observing techniques may have the capacity to detect them on Venus. A comprehensive observing program spanning a range of solar system bodies can address an array of geophysical issues involving interior mass distribution of planets, satellites, and asteroids. Calculations of expected librations can supply amplitude estimates helpful in identifying the likelihood of detecting librations observationally. We present a survey of expected libration amplitudes for a subset of solar system bodies, identifying those bodies with amplitudes likely to be detectable, and commenting on spin state, and radial structure implications.

Comstock, R. L.↗

A comparison of iron extraction methods for the determination of degree of pyritisation and the recognition of iron-limited pyrite formation

Measurements of degree of pyritisation require an estimate of sediment iron which is capable of reaction with dissolved sulphide to form pyrite, either directly or indirectly via iron monosulphide precursors. Three dissolution techniques (buffered dithionite, cold 1 M HCl, boiling 12 M HCl) were examined for their capacity to extract iron from a variety of iron minerals, and iron-bearing sediments, as a function of different extraction times and different grain sizes. All the iron oxides studied are quantitatively extracted by dithionite and boiling HCl (but not by cold HCl). Both HCl techniques extract more iron from silicates than does dithionite but probably about the same amounts as are potentially capable of sulphidation. Modern sediment studies indicate that most sedimentary pyrite is formed rapidly from iron oxides, with smaller amounts formed more slowly from iron silicates (if sufficient geologic time is available). It is therefore recommended that the degree of pyritisation be defined with respect to the dithionite-extractable (mainly iron oxide) pool and/or the boiling HCl-extractable pool (which includes some silicate iron) for the recognition of iron-limited pyritisation.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Evaluation of Rail Decarbonization Alternatives: Framework and Application

The Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework is a comprehensive industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies including biofuels, e-fuels, battery-electric, and hydrogen locomotives. By classifying fuel types into two categories based on deployment requirements, the associated optimal charging/fueling facility location and sizing problem are solved with a five-step framework. Life-cycle analysis (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) are used to estimate carbon reduction, capital investments, cost of carbon reduction, and operational impacts, enabling sensitivity analysis with operational and technological parameters. Here, the framework is illustrated on lower-carbon drop-in fuels as well as battery-electric technology deployments for the US Eastern and Western Class I railroad networks. Drop-in fuel deployments are modeled as admixtures with diesel in existing locomotives, while battery-electric deployments are shown for varying technology penetration levels and locomotive ranges. When mixed in a 50% ratio with diesel, results show biodiesel’s capacity to reduce emissions at 36% with a cost of $\$$ 0.13 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced, while e-fuels offer a potential reduction of 50% of emissions at a cost of $\$$ 0.22 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced. Battery-electric results for 50% deployment over all ton-miles highlight the value of future innovations in battery energy densities as scenarios assuming 800-mi range locomotives show an estimated emissions reduction of 46% with a cost of $\$$ 0.06 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced, compared with 16% emissions reduction at a cost of $\$$ 0.11 per kilogram of CO 2 reduced for 400-mi range locomotives. The NUFRIEND framework provides a systematic method for comparing different alternative energy technologies and identifying potential challenges and benefits in their future deployments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗