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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,243 records · Page 69
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Hydraulic safety and growth rather than climate of origin influence survival in desert shrubs and trees

The species-poor woodlands and forests in arid regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change induced plant die-off. Searching for species suitable to replant in these areas is an effective way to prevent further expansion of land desertification. Good knowledge of drought resistance of species is critical for current replanting efforts, however, the related plant survival mechanisms in the process of restoration remain limited. Here, we tested the dominant drivers of plant survival in relation to climate factors, growth characteristics and functional traits including hydraulics and gas exchange across 35 multiple shrub and tree woody species in a common garden at the Tengger Desert, northwest China. We found the desert plants had a wide range of hydraulic thresholds among these desert species, with relative high hydraulic safety, and low xylem hydraulic conductivity. Pant survival was largely determined by hydraulic safety and growth status, but was not affected by the climate of the species’ site of origin. Shrubs and trees diverged in hydraulic and growth characteristics, while there was no difference between native and introduced species. In this study, our results highlight the critical roles of hydraulic safety and growth on determining the survival and drought adaptation during desert vegetation development, which provide a new insight into ecological restoration in arid regions under changing climate conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales

We estimate trends in US regional precipitation on multiple time spans and scales relevant to the detection of changes in climatic regimes. A large literature has shown that trend estimation in hydrological series may be affected by long-term persistence (LTP) and selection of sample length. We show that 2000-year proxy-based reconstructions of the Palmer Modified Drought Index for the US Southeast (SE) and Pacific Coast (PC) regions exhibit LTP and reveal post- 1900 changes to be within the range of longer-term natural fluctuations. We also use a new data base of daily precipitation records for 20 locations (10 PC and 10 SE) extending back in many cases to the 1870s. Over the 1901–2017 interval upward trends in some measures of average and extreme precipitation appear, but they are not consistently significant and in the full records back to 1872 they largely disappear. Furthermore, they also disappear or reverse in the post-1978 portion of the data set, which is inconsistent with them being responses to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. We conclude that natural variability is likely the dominant driver of historical changes in precipitation and hence drought dynamics in the US SE and PC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Determining the impact of a severe dry to wet transition on watershed hydrodynamics in California, USA with an integrated hydrologic model

With the onset of climate change, regions relied upon for water supply are increasingly subject to end-member fluctuations between periods of severe drought followed by extreme precipitation. The impacts of these extreme conditions on watershed hydrodynamics in water-resource sensitive regions such as California are unknown despite their great importance for resilience and water management purposes. Understanding these impacts requires high-resolution physically based models to capture sharp variations of topography, land use, wetting fronts, etc. Here, an integrated hydrologic model was used in a high-performance computing framework to study the complex nonlinear dynamics occurring at a representative Californian watershed. The Cosumnes Watershed, one of the last major rivers in California without a dam, offers a rare opportunity to isolate the effects of water management from climate extremes. Here, we show model validation with comparisons between model outputs and local measurements in addition to various satellite-based products including (1) Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) and a reconstruction method by Bair and co-authors, (2) soil moisture with Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and (3) evapotranspiration (ET) with Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC). To assess changes in hydrodynamic behavior during climate extremes and their transitions, a simulation spanning a recent drought followed by the highest precipitation year on record (2015–2017) is discussed. From these simulations, we are able to highlight regions that are the most sensitive to climate extremes, which depend on many factors including hydrologic connectivity, geology and topography. These analyses provide a better understanding of the physical phenomena occurring in the watershed, strengthening our knowledge of how the system may respond to extreme conditions which might become the “new normal.”

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing SWAT with mechanistic plant hydraulics: development and application in the Hanjiang River Basin

Plant transpiration plays a critical role in global water and energy cycles, requiring better process understanding as climate change intensifies drought stress and alters plant responses. Most hydrological models such as the widely-used SWAT lack representation of plant hydraulics, the mechanistic processes controlling plant water regulation and transpiration. Here, this study developed SWAT-PHS by integrating a plant hydraulics scheme (PHS) into SWAT hydrological model, enabling explicit simulation of root water uptake, sap flow, storage and transpiration at 30-minute timescales for watershed-scale modeling. In the Hanjiang River Basin, SWAT-PHS mitigated overestimation of runoff during the rainy season and underestimation during the dry season, reducing the overall simulation error by 29% across the entire simulation period. The model can simulate reasonable plant water dynamics, including diurnal transpiration patterns and drought responses showing declining transpiration flux, hydraulic buffering through stem water storage, and depth-dependent root water uptake strategies. Sensitivity analysis shows that SWAT-PHS captured mechanistic relationships between plant hydraulic traits and transpiration, with root distribution and stem capacitance positively affecting annual transpiration while vulnerability parameters showed negative effects. This work provides a pathway for improving hydrologic modeling and water resource management by better representing plant water regulation under climate change and expected intensifying water stress conditions.

China↗
DOE OSTI2022

Divergent responses of soil microorganisms to throughfall exclusion across tropical forest soils driven by soil fertility and climate history

Model projections predict tropical forests will experience longer periods of drought and more intense precipitation cycles under a changing climate. Such transitions have implications for structure-function relationships within microbial communities. We examine how throughfall exclusion might reshape prokaryotic and fungal communities across four lowland forests in Panama with a wide variation in mean annual precipitation and soil fertility. Four sites were established across a 1000 mm span in Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP: 2335–3421 mm). We expected microbial communities at sites with lower MAP to be less sensitive to throughfall exclusion than sites with higher MAP and fungal communities to be more resistant to disturbance than prokaryotes. At each location, partial throughfall exclusion structures were established over 10 × 10 m plots to reduce direct precipitation input. After short-term (~3–9 months) throughfall exclusion, prokaryotic communities showed no change in composition. However, prolonged (12–18 months) throughfall exclusion resulted in divergent prokaryotic community responses, reflecting MAP and soil fertility. We observed the emergence of a “drought microbiome” within infertile sites, whereby the community structure of the experimental throughfall exclusion plots at the lower MAP sites diverged from their respective control sites and converged towards overlapping assemblages. Furthermore, under throughfall exclusion, taxa increasing in relative abundance at the wettest site reflected that endemic to control plots at the lowest MAP site, suggesting a shift toward communities with lifehistory traits selected for under a lower MAP. By contrast, fungal community composition across sites was resilient to throughfall exclusion; however, biomass diverged in response to throughfall exclusion, increasing at two sites while decreasing in the other two. Broadly, our results suggest that microbial communities’ sensitivity to frequent drying and rewetting periods in tropical forest soils will depend on climate history and soil fertility, with infertile sites likely to respond readily to changes in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

disequilibrium↗
DOE OSTI2015

Uranium redistribution due to water table fluctuations in sandy wetland mesocosms

In order to better understand the fate and stability of immobilized uranium (U) in wetland sediments, and how intermittent dry periods affect U stability, we dosed saturated wetland mesocosms planted with Scirpus acutus with low levels of uranyl acetate for 4 months before imposing a short drying and rewetting period. Concentrations of U in mesocosm effluent increased after drying and rewetting, but the cumulative amount of U released following the dry period constituted less than 1% of the total U immobilized in the soil during the 4 months prior. This low level of remobilization suggests, and XAS analyses confirm, that microbial reduction was not the primary means of U immobilization, as the U immobilized in mesocosms was primarily U(VI) rather than U(IV). Drying followed by re-wetting caused a redistribution of U downward in the soil profile and on to root surfaces. While the U on roots before drying was primarily associated with minerals, the U that relocated to the roots during drying and rewetting was bound diffusely to root surfaces. Results show that short periods of drought conditions in a wetland, which expose reduced sediments to air, may impact U distribution, but these conditions may not cause large releases of soil-bound U from planted wetlands to surface waters.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Solar-Induced Fluorescence Detects Interannual Variation in Gross Primary Production of Coniferous Forests in the Western United States

Quantifying gross primary production (GPP), the largest flux of the terrestrial carbon cycle, remains difficult at the landscape scale. Evergreen needleleaf (coniferous) forests in the western United States constitute an important carbon reservoir whose annual GPP varies from year-to-year due to drought, mortality, and other ecosystem disturbances. Evergreen forest productivity is challenging to determine via traditional remote sensing indices (i.e., NDVI and EVI), because detecting environmental stress conditions is difficult. We investigated the utility of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to detect year-to-year variation in GPP in four coniferous forests varying in species composition in the western United States (Sierra Nevada, Cascade, and Rocky Mountains). We show that annually averaged, satellite-based observations of SIF (retrieved from GOME-2) were significantly correlated with annual GPP observed at eddy covariance towers over several years. Further, SIF responded quantitatively to drought-induced mortality, suggesting that SIF may be capable of detecting ecosystem disturbance in coniferous forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Leading Modes of Asian Summer Monsoon Variability as Pulses of Atmospheric Energy Flow

Monsoon rainfall anomalies are often organized into dynamical modes that are more predictable than rainfall at specific locations. Here a linear response function (LRF) is constructed to extract the neutral modes (NM) of the dynamical atmospheric system and their optimal forcing that govern precipitation variability, providing a dynamical underpinning for the empirically derived, recurrent rainfall patterns. The leading mode (NM1) features a shift in the Atlantic ITCZ, a drying over the Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent, and a “South-Flood-North Drought (SFND)” pattern over eastern China, a pattern inferable from changes in the atmospheric energy flow forced by the corresponding optimal forcing and further enhanced by the water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Moreover, the slow evolving component of the NM1 in response to CO2 forcing can be skillfully predicted by running the ocean heat uptake through the LRF, implicating a deterministic ocean dynamic source for the NM1-like trend under climate warming.

monsoon mode of variability, EBM, climate change, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wetter Summers Mitigated Temperature Stress on Rocky Mountain Forests During the Last Interglacial Warm Period

Recent droughts have highlighted concerns of how rising summer temperatures will increase tree mortality rates across the western United States. We analyzed subfossil wood samples from Colorado dating to the last interglacial to assess the response of two common conifers to a previous warm period. The trees experienced comparable growth rates and water use efficiency during the interglacial relative to modern despite evidence from model simulations of a ~30% increase in evaporative demand during the peak of the growing season. High-resolution isotopic analysis of the wood samples show an enrichment in the late season cellulosic δ 18 O relative to modern samples, which we find was associated with increased reliance on summer rain. The data are consistent with model simulations showing the interglacial was associated with wetter summers across the western US. Here, we propose enhanced summer rain during this period compensated for drought stress imposed by higher evaporative demand.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential Trends in Iron Concentrations of Boreal Streams Linked to Catchment Characteristics

Increasing iron (Fe) concentrations have been reported for freshwaters across northern Europe over the last decades. This increase, together with elevated concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), leads to browning of freshwaters, which affects aquatic organisms, ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and brings challenges to drinking water production. However, how such increasing trends in stream Fe concentrations reflect the contribution of different catchment sources remains poorly resolved. Here, we explored how catchment characteristics, that is, mires and coniferous soils, regulate spatial and temporal patterns of Fe in a boreal stream network. For this, we determined Fe speciation in riparian and mire soils, and studied temporal Fe dynamics in soil-water and stream-water over a span of 18 years. Positive Fe trends were found in the solution of the riparian soil, while no long-term trend was observed in the mire. These differences were reflected in stream-water, where three headwater streams dominated by coniferous cover also displayed positive Fe trends, whereas the mire dominated stream showed no trend. Surprisingly, the majority of higher order streams showed declining Fe trends, despite long-term increases in DOC. In addition, we found that an extreme drought event led to a prolonged release of Fe and DOC from the riparian soils, that could have long-term effects on stream Fe concentrations. Our results show that riparian forest soils can be major contributors to ongoing increases in freshwater Fe concentrations and that drought can further promote the release of Fe from organic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends

Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Extreme Precipitation Predictions With Dynamical Downscaling: A Convection‐Permitting Modeling Study in Texas and Oklahoma

Precipitation in the Southern Plains of the United States is relatively well depicted by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). However, despite its ability to capture seasonal mean precipitation anomalies, CESM consistently underestimates extreme pluvial and drought events, rendering it an insufficient tool for extending simulation lead times for exceptional events, such as the abnormally dry May 2011, which helped drive Texas into its worst period of drought in more than a century, and the abnormally wet May 2015, which led to widespread flooding in that state. Ensemble‐based regional climate experiments are completed for the two extreme years using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and downscaled from CESM. WRF simulations are at convection‐permitting grid resolution for improved physical representation of simulated precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. By integrating convection‐permitting models (CPMs) into each individual member of a CESM ocean data assimilation ensemble, this study demonstrates that high‐resolution dynamical downscaling can improve model skillfulness at capturing these two events and is thus a potentially useful tool for forecasting extremely high and extremely low precipitation events at subseasonal or even seasonal lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The GFDL Variable-Resolution Global Chemistry-Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

We present a variable-resolution global chemistry-climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban-to-rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land-surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi-decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25-km uniform-resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal-to-diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry-and-warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process-level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land-biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗