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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Estimation of Terrestrial Global Gross Primary Production (GPP) with Satellite Data-Driven Models and Eddy Covariance Flux Data

We estimate global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) based on models that use satellite data within a simplified light-use efficiency framework that does not rely upon other meteorological inputs. Satellite-based geometry-adjusted reflectances are from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and provide information about vegetation structure and chlorophyll content at both high temporal (daily to monthly) and spatial (1 km) resolution. We use satellite-derived solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) to identify regions of high productivity crops and also evaluate the use of downscaled SIF to estimate GPP. We calibrate a set of our satellite-based models with GPP estimates from a subset of distributed eddy covariance flux towers (FLUXNET 2015). The results of the trained models are evaluated using an independent subset of FLUXNET 2015 GPP data. We show that variations in light-use efficiency (LUE) with incident PAR are important and can be easily incorporated into the models. Unlike many LUE-based models, our satellite-based GPP estimates do not use an explicit parameterization of LUE that reduces its value from the potential maximum under limiting conditions such as temperature and water stress. Even without the parameterized downward regulation, our simplified models are shown to perform as well as or better than state-of-the-art satellite data-driven products that incorporate such parameterizations. A significant fraction of both spatial and temporal variability in GPP across plant functional types can be accounted for using our satellite-based models. Our results provide an annual GPP value of 140 Pg C year 1 for 2007 that is within the range of a compilation of observation-based, model, and hybrid results, but is higher than some previous satellite observation-based estimates

CO2↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Rates of Erosion Using Historical Aerial Photos - 19478

Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. In this work multi-temporal historical aerial images are analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. Scans of photographic negatives were obtained for multiple photographs and several negatives were scanned with a calibrated photogrammetric scanner by Geomni (formerly Blue Skies Consulting) in Belen, New Mexico. Other negatives were provided by USDA or scanned on a high-resolution, large format media scanner in the United States National Archives Cartographic Research Room, College Park, Maryland (1939). An additional set of aerial photographs was obtained from the USGS EROS Data Center web site. For other years, photographic prints were available for aerial photography. Several prints were scanned with a large-format media scanner at 1200 dpi. Ground control points for selected digital images used in the stereoscopic analyses were identified in ArcMap. Ground control points were collected by matching features which could be identified in the aerial photography as well as the orthophotography or shaded relief imagery from the Lidar dataset. Such features included fence line intersections, road intersections, railroad bridges, and structures, depending on the age of the photography. Many old fence lines and abandoned roads remained visible in the shaded relief imagery while they were completely obscured by tree canopy in modern photography. Ground control elevations were sampled from the Lidar-based DEM or directly from point clouds. The image coordinates and matching three-dimensional projected coordinates of the ground control points were exported to IDL where parameters for a three-dimensional direct linear transformation (DLT) were obtained. Built-in singular value decomposition routines were used to solve an overdetermined set of equations for the eleven parameters of the DLT for a particular historical photograph. A solution to the DLT parameters was obtained for each historical aerial photograph in which features of interest were identified using the stereoscope. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. There was inevitable uncertainty associated with the estimation of points from the historical aerial imagery. This includes estimation of changes in locations of features like gully heads through time. In this work a method to estimate the uncertainty associated with measurements of locations of features using the stereoscopic analysis is developed and applied. For features with locations in space that do not change (e.g., road intersections, etc.) the difference in measurements of locations from the Lidar dataset and that of the estimate from the historical aerial image provides an observation of the measurement error. These points used to estimate the measurement error are referred to as control points. For each of the historical aerial images, a different measurement error distribution is estimated using control points. These measurement errors are combined with the estimated distances from the stereoscopic analyses to produce distributions of gully retreat rates and hillslope erosion rates used along with output from Erosion Working Group (EWG) Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) to provide statistical probability distributions for input into the PPA Model. Specifically, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions. The central limit theorem was then applied to develop rates that represent long-term averages that are used to inform a PPA Model built in GoldSim. The importance of these rates with respect to characterization of future risk can then assessed using sensitivity analyses. This provides an approach to determine if subsequent reduction of the uncertainty associated with the probability distributions of erosion rates will correspond to meaningful reduction in the estimation of future risk from the site. Ultimately this is a general method that utilizes historical aerial imagery to estimate rates of erosion with uncertainty. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transit Time Estimation in Catchments: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Abstract Water transit time is now a standard measure in catchment hydrological and ecohydrological research. The last comprehensive review of transit time modeling approaches was published 15+ years ago. But since then the field has largely expanded with new data, theory and applications. Here, we review these new developments with focus on water‐age‐balance approaches and data‐based approaches. We discuss and compare methods including StorAge‐Selection functions, well/partially mixed compartments, water age tracking through spatially distributed models, direct transit time estimates from controlled experiments, young water fractions, and ensemble hydrograph separation. We unify some of the heterogeneity in the literature that has crept in with these many new approaches, in an attempt to clarify the key differences and similarities among them. Finally, we point to open questions in transit time research, including what we still need from theory, models, field work, and community practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geometric Tail Approximation for Reliability and Survivability

A common problem in developing high-reliability systems is estimating the reliability for a population of components that cannot be 100% tested. The radiation survivability of a population of components is often estimated by testing a very small sample to some multiple of the required specification level, known as an overtest. Given a successful test with a sufficient overtest margin, the population of components is assumed to have the required survivability or radiation reliability. However, no mathematical justification for such claims has been crafted without making aggressive assumptions regarding the statistics of the unknown distribution. Here we illustrate a new approach that leverages geometric bounding arguments founded on relatively modest distribution assumptions to produce conservative estimates of component reliability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Comparing Geologically Informed Data Products to Analytical Solutions

Abstract This study synthesizes two different methods for estimating hydraulic conductivity (K) at large scales. We derive analytical approaches that estimate K and apply them to the contiguous United States. We then compare these analytical approaches to three‐dimensional, national gridded K data products and three transmissivity (T) data products developed from publicly available sources. We evaluate these data products using multiple approaches: comparing their statistics qualitatively and quantitatively and with hydrologic model simulations. Some of these datasets were used as inputs for an integrated hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin and the comparison of the results with observations was used to further evaluate the K data products. Simulated average daily streamflow was compared to daily flow data from 10 USGS stream gages in the domain, and annually averaged simulated groundwater depths are compared to observations from nearly 2000 monitoring wells. We find streamflow predictions from analytically informed simulations to be similar in relative bias and Spearman's rho to the geologically informed simulations. R ‐squared values for groundwater depth predictions are close between the best performing analytically and geologically informed simulations at 0.68 and 0.70 respectively, with RMSE values under 10 m. We also show that the analytical approach derived by this study produces estimates of K that are similar in spatial distribution, standard deviation, mean value, and modeling performance to geologically‐informed estimates. The results of this work are used to inform a follow‐on study that tests additional data‐driven approaches in multiple basins within the contiguous United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

The diffuse galactic gamma radiation - The Compton contribution and component separation by energy interval and galactic coordinates

The diffuse high-energy galactic gamma radiation to be expected from cosmic ray interactions with matter and photons is considered with particular emphasis on the contribution of Compton radiation from cosmic ray electrons. The intensity, spectrum and spatial distribution of the expected galactic gamma radiation are estimated based on models of the matter, cosmic ray and photon distributions to take into account the contributions of bremsstrahlung, high-energy cosmic-ray nucleon and interstellar matter interactions as well as Compton interactions between cosmic ray electrons and background photons. Results suggest that the Compton gamma ray contribution from cosmic ray electron interactions with galactic visible and infrared photons is substantially larger than previously believed. Analysis of the energy spectra and latitude dependence of the various sources reveals that the Compton radiation, bremsstrahlung and nuclear cosmic ray-matter interaction radiation should be separable, with Compton radiation dominating at energies from 10 to 100 MeV at galactic latitudes greater than several degrees. Results demonstrate the potential of gamma ray observations in studies of galactic structure, cosmic ray electrons and galactic photon density.

Kniffen, D. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid-Learning Algorithm for Online Dynamic State Estimation in Multimachine Power Systems

With the increasing penetration of distributed generators in the smart grids, having knowledge of rapid real-time electromechanical dynamic states has become crucial to system stability control. Conventional Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA)-based dynamic state estimation (DSE) techniques are limited by the slow sampling rates, while the emerging phasor measurement units (PMUs) technology enables rapid real-time measurements at network nodes. Using generator bus terminal voltages, we propose a hybrid-learning DSE (HL-DSE) algorithm to estimate the synchronous machine rotor angle and speed in real time. The HL-DSE takes the power system model into account and trains neuroestimators with real-time data in an online manner. Compared with traditional DSE methods, the HL-DSE overcomes limitations by using a data-driven approach in conjunction with the physical power system model. The time efficiency, accuracy, convergence, and robustness of the proposed algorithm are tested under noises and fault conditions in both small- and large-scale test systems. Simulation results show that the proposed HL-DSE is much more computationally efficient than widely used Kalman filter (KF)-based methods while maintaining comparable accuracy and robustness. In particular, HL-DSE is over 100 times faster than square-root unscented KF (SR-UKF) and 80 times faster than extended KF (EKF). The advantages and challenges of the HL-DSE are also discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Energy Release upon Bombardment of a Tungsten Surface by Deuterium Atoms

The depth distribution of the energy release (linear energy transfer) occurring upon bombardment of a tungsten target by deuterium atoms with energies ranging from 100 eV to 10 MeV is calculated. It is demonstrated that, contrary to common belief, the maximum energy release at energies below 100 keV is localized near the surface of the solid. At energies above 100 keV, the shape of the distribution changes, and a Bragg maximum emerges near the particle stopping point. The depth distribution of the energy release in tungsten under conditions typical of the ITER tokamak reactor is determined. This distribution provides an opportunity to estimate the wall heating by incident plasma atoms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1991

Midinfrared spectral investigations of carbonates: Analysis of remotely sensed data

Recent airborne thermal infrared observations of Mars from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO) have provided evidence for the presence of carbonates, sulfates, and hydrates. Using the optical properties of calcite and anhydrite, it was estimated that CO3's and SO4's constituted about 1 to 3 and 10 to 15 wt. percent, repectively of the materials composing the atmospheric dust. Using the derived value as an estimate of total CO3 abundance, and making an assumption that the CO3's were uniformly distributed within the Martian regolith, it was estimated that such a CO3 reservoir could contain roughly 2 to 5 bars of CO2. While the results indicate that several volatile-bearing materials are present on Mars, the observations from the KAO are inherently limited in their ability to determine the spatial distributions of these materials. However, previous spacecraft observations of Mars provide both the spectral coverage necessary to identify these materials, as well as the potential for investigating their spatial variability. This has prompted us to pursue a reinvestigation of the Mariner 6 and 7 infrared spectrometer and Mariner 9 infrared interferometer spectrometer observations. The former data have been recently made available in digital format and calibration of wavelengths and intensities are almost complete. Additionally, we are pursuing the derivation of optical constants of more appropriate carbonates and sulfates.

Roush, T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effect of graphite morphology on the tensile strength and thermal conductivity of cast iron

Highlights: • The graphite morphology is characterized from 3D structure using X–ray tomography. • The size, distribution, shape and interconnectivity of graphite are estimated. • The influences of graphite morphology on tensile properties and thermal conductivity are evaluated. • The mechanism of tensile strength and the model of thermal conductivity are discussed. - Abstract: Graphite morphology is a very important parameter affecting the properties of cast iron. In this study, the graphite morphology was characterized using both 3D and 2D structures. The experimental results revealed that when the graphite was less spheroidal, the graphite had greater interconnectivity in the 3D structure of the cast iron. The size, distribution, volume fraction, and shape of the graphite were estimated. Moreover, the influences of the graphite's morphology, size, and distribution on the tensile property and thermal conductivity at different temperatures were estimated. The experimental results revealed that with an increase in temperature, the thermal conductivity initially increased, and then decreased, whereas the tensile strength decreased slightly at first, and then decreased rapidly. In addition, with an increase in the percentage of compacted graphite, the tensile strength decreased and the thermal conductivity increased. The fracture surfaces of tensile specimens were also estimated. Finally, the mechanism of tensile strength and the model of thermal conductivity were investigated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1979

Estimating crop proportions from remotely sensed data

The classification/pixel-count method for estimating the proportion of wheat in each segment is theoretically biased even if all distributional assumptions are met. Alternative ways to estimate crop proportions are examined and their performance testing is considered. Topics covered include general linear functional estimates, the method of moments, and maximum likelihood estimators.

Feiveson, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Static shape control for flexible structures

An integrated methodology is described for defining static shape control laws for large flexible structures. The techniques include modeling, identifying and estimating the control laws of distributed systems characterized in terms of infinite dimensional state and parameter spaces. The models are expressed as interconnected elliptic partial differential equations governing a range of static loads, with the capability of analyzing electromagnetic fields around antenna systems. A second-order analysis is carried out for statistical errors, and model parameters are determined by maximizing an appropriate defined likelihood functional which adjusts the model to observational data. The parameter estimates are derived from the conditional mean of the observational data, resulting in a least squares superposition of shape functions obtained from the structural model.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Seasonal Changes in Titan's Surface Temperatures

Cassini's extended mission has provided the opportunity to search for seasonal variations on Titan. In particular, surface temperatures are expected to have shifted significantly in latitude during the completed portion of the mission. Spectra recorded by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) during the nominal mission (2004-08) and the Equinox mission. (2008-10) have already shown changes in temperature. CIRS has detected a seasonal shift in the latitudinal distribution of surface brightness temperatures by comparing zonal averages from two time segments, one period in late northern winter centered on L(sub s) approximately 335 deg and a second period centered on the equinox (L(sub s) approximately 0 deg.). The earlier period had a meridional distribution similar to that previously reported: 93.5 K at the equator, 91.7 K at 85 S and 899 K at 85 N. The newly measured distribution near equinox shows a cooling in the south and a warming in the north, both by about 0.5 K. We estimate that. the centroid of the distribution moved from approximately 16 S to 7 S between the two periods. This gives a seasonal lag behind insolation of delta L(sub s) approximately 13 deg. The CIRS equinox results are consistent with those of Voyager IRIS, which encountered Titan in November 1980, just following the previous northern equinox (L(sub s) = 10 deg.). When compared with predictions from general circulation models, seasonal variations of surface temperature can help constrain the identification of surface materials. Our measurements most closely match the case of a porous ice regolith treated by Tokano, but with some apparent differences between the northern and southern hemispheres. CIRS will extend its study of seasonal variations in surface temperature on Titan as Cassini continues through northern spring.

Jennings, Donald E.↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Two-Particle Correlation Function for Systems with Long-Range Interactions

In this paper, we study the truncated two-particle correlation function in particle systems with long range interactions. For Coulombian and soft potentials, we define and give well-posedness results for the equilibrium correlations. In the Coulombian case, we prove the onset of the Debye screening length in the equilibrium correlations, for suitable velocity distributions. Additionally, we give precise estimates on the effective range of interaction between particles. In the case of soft potential interaction the equilibrium correlations and their fluxes in the space of velocities are shown to be linearly stable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1995

Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

Bennett, Richard A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70degE-l50degE, 11degS-55degN) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint for April and October of 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500%, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1-5%) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10-50% over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a. consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimate of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS1992

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Neal, Donald M.↗