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DOE OSTI2024

A three-dimensional model of terrain-induced updrafts for movement ecology studies

Abstract Background Spatially explicit simulation models of animal movements through the atmosphere necessarily require a representation of the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric conditions. In particular, for movements of soaring birds that rely extensively on vertical updrafts to avoid flapping flight, accurate and reliable estimation of the vertical component of wind is critical. The interaction between wind and complex terrain shapes both the horizontal and vertical wind fields, highlighting the need to model the coupling between local terrain features and atmospheric conditions at scales relevant to animal movement. Methods In this work, we propose a new empirical model for estimating the orographic updraft field. The model is developed using computational fluid dynamics simulations of canonical atmospheric conditions over moderately complex terrain. To isolate buoyancy and thermal effects, and focus on terrain-induced effects, we use only simulations of a neutrally stratified atmosphere to develop the model. The model, which we name Engineering Vertical Velocity Estimator (EVVE), is simple to implement and is a function of the underlying terrain elevation map, the desired height above ground level (AGL), and wind conditions at a reference height (80 m). We validate the model with data from the Alaiz mountain (Spain) field campaign. Results Compared to observations, the proposed improved model estimates the updrafts at 120 m AGL with a mean error of 0.11 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.28$$ σ = 0.28 m/s), compared to 0.85 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.58$$ σ = 0.58 m/s) for its baseline. For typical land-based wind turbine hub heights of 80 m AGL, the proposed model has a mean error of 0.04 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.25$$ σ = 0.25 m/s), compared to baseline 0.54 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.45$$ σ = 0.45 m/s) estimations. We illustrate an application of the model in movement ecology by comparing simulated tracks and presence maps of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) moving across two distinct landscapes. The tracks and presence maps are obtained using a simple heuristic-based movement model, with the updraft field given by the proposed model and a wind vector-based estimation approach that is currently in wide use in movement ecology studies of raptors and other soaring birds. Conclusions We highlight that movement model results can be sensitive to the underlying orographic updraft model, especially in studies of fine-scale movements in regions of complex topography. We suggest adopting the proposed model rather than the wind vector estimation method for studies of soaring bird movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Floating Photovoltaic Technical Potential: A Novel Geospatial Approach on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

Floating photovoltaic generation is a rapidly expanding sector of the solar energy industry, and understanding the quantity that can feasibly be installed is a crucial step to understand its role in future energy systems. This paper presents a novel spatially explicit methology of FPV potential for federally owned and managed reservoirs in the United States that uses site-specific attributes of reservoirs to estimate available area and potential generation capacity. The analysis finds that the proportion reservoir area that is found to be available for FPV development is similar to assumed values used in previous research on average, however there is a wide variability in this proportion on a site by site basis. Potential FPV generation capacity on these reservoirs is estimated to be in the range of 861 to 1,042 GWdc depending on input assumptions, likely representing a significant portion of future US solar generation needs. This work represents an advancement in methods used to estimate FPV potential that presents many natural extensions for further research.

floating solar↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wind Turbine Rotor Design Optimization Using Importance Sampling: Preprint

Probabilistic methods are commonly adopted to estimate both ultimate and fatigue loads in wind turbines, and multiple papers have presented a variety of approaches. In contrast, system-level, integrated design optimization methods for wind turbines have so far relied on deterministic methods to estimate loads and deflections. This work aims at addressing this gap by adopting importance sampling to estimate ultimate blade deflection for use within a rotor design optimization. A comparison between the results of this approach against traditional approaches using deterministic load evaluations show that the probabilistic approach is more conservative and that the solutions found with deterministic approaches violate the probabilistic constraint on tip deflection between 13% and 17%. This highlights the importance of accurate load and deflection estimates and demonstrates that probabilistic approaches can be successfully integrated within a wind turbine design process despite the higher computational costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Stochastic averaging and sensitivity analysis for two scale reaction networks

In the presence of multiscale dynamics in a reaction network, direct simulation methods become inefficient as they can only advance the system on the smallest scale. This work presents stochastic averaging techniques to accelerate computations for obtaining estimates of expected values and sensitivities with respect to the steady state distribution. A two-time-scale formulation is used to establish bounds on the bias induced by the averaging method. Further, this formulation provides a framework to create an accelerated “averaged” version of most single-scale sensitivity estimation methods. In particular, we propose the use of a centered ergodic likelihood ratio method for steady state estimation and show how one can adapt it to accelerated simulations of multiscale systems. Lastly, we develop an adaptive “batch-means” stopping rule for determining when to terminate the micro-equilibration process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Applying Information Theory to Design Optimal Filters for Photometric Redshifts

In this paper we apply ideas from information theory to create a method for the design of optimal filters for photometric redshift estimation. We show the method applied to a series of simple example filters in order to motivate an intuition for how photometric redshift estimators respond to the properties of photometric passbands. We then design a realistic set of six filters covering optical wavelengths that optimize photometric redshifts for z <= 2.3 and i < 25.3. We create a simulated catalog for these optimal filters and use our filters with a photometric redshift estimation code to show that we can improve the standard deviation of the photometric redshift error by 7.1% overall and improve outliers 9.9% over the standard filters proposed for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). We compare features of our optimal filters to the LSST and find that the LSST filters incorporate key features for optimal photometric redshift estimation. Finally, we describe how information theory can be applied to a range of optimization problems in astronomy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deprojection of X-ray data in galaxy clusters: confronting simulations with observations

ABSTRACT Numerical simulations with varying realism indicate an emergent principle−multiphase condensation and large cavity power occur when the ratio of the cooling time to the free-fall time (tcool/tff) falls below a threshold value close to 10. Observations indeed show cool-core signatures when this ratio falls below 20–30, but the prevalence of cores with tcool/tff ratio below 10 is rare as compared to simulations. In X-ray observations, we obtain projected spectra from which we have to infer radial gas density and temperature profiles. Using idealized models of X-ray cavities and multiphase gas in the core and 3D hydro jet-ICM simulations, we quantify the biases introduced by deprojection based on the assumption of spherical symmetry in determining tcool/tff. We show that while the used methods are able to recover the tcool/tff ratio for relaxed clusters, they have an uncertainty of a factor of 2−3 in systems containing large cavities (≳ 20 kpc). We also show that the mass estimates from these methods, in the absence of X-ray spectra close to the virial radius, suffer from a degeneracy between the virial mass (M200) and the concentration parameter (c) in the form of M200c2 ≈ constant. Additionally, the lack of soft-X-ray (≲ 0.5 keV) coverage and poor spatial resolution makes us overestimate min(tcool/tff) by a factor of few in clusters with min(tcool/tff) ≲ 5. This bias can largely explain the lack of cool-core clusters with min(tcool/tff) ≲ 5.

Sarkar, Kartick C. (ORCID:0000000277678472)↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental Study of Uncertainty Considerations Associated with Predicting Auto-ignition Timing using Livengood-Wu Integral Method

The application of the Livengood-Wu (LW) integral method as a tool to estimate knock onset in spark ignited (SI) engines and combustion phasing in advanced compression ignition (ACI) engines has been demonstrated through simulations several times. In this study, the effect of uncertainties associated with parameters required for the LW integral method, when used as a tool for model based control of ignition timing in an ACI engine, were experimentally studied using five full boiling range gasoline fuels. As a first step, the method was applied to experimental data from a rapid compression machine and it was found that the ability of the LW integral method to predict ignition timing was very sensitive to the performance of the chemical kinetic model of each fuel. The method was subsequently applied to experimental data from a single-cylinder gasoline engine with simple approximations for the LW integral input parameters, and it was found that the predicted time of ignition was significantly different from the actual start of combustion. Systematic evaluation of various parametric uncertainties conducted thereafter showed that the uncertainty in cylinder charge temperature has the greatest influence. Improved methods of estimating cylinder charge temperature are proposed to account for the previously determined corrections, to enable the use of the LW integral method for model based control of ignition timing.

Compression Ignition↗

DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

A novel technique for determining luminosity in electron-scattering/positron-scattering experiments from multi-interaction events

The OLYMPUS experiment measured the cross-section ratio of positron–proton elastic scattering relative to electron–proton elastic scattering to look for evidence of hard two-photon exchange. To make this measurement, the experiment alternated between electron beam and positron beam running modes, with the relative integrated luminosities of the two running modes providing the crucial normalization. For this reason, OLYMPUS had several redundant luminosity monitoring systems, including a pair of electromagnetic calorimeters positioned downstream from the target to detect symmetric Møller and Bhabha scattering from atomic electrons in the hydrogen gas target. Though this system was designed to monitor the rate of events with single Møller/Bhabha interactions, here we found that a more accurate determination of relative luminosity could be made by additionally considering the rate of events with both a Møller/Bhabha interaction and a concurrent elastic ep interaction. This method was improved by small corrections for the variance of the current within bunches in the storage ring and for the probability of three interactions occurring within a bunch. After accounting for systematic effects, we estimate that the method is accurate in determining the relative luminosity to within 0.36%. This precise technique can be employed in future electron–proton and positron–proton scattering experiments to monitor relative luminosity between different running modes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Emissions Accounting Methods Can Determine Whether Direct Air Capture with Storage Achieves Net Removal

The voluntary carbon market within the United States has expanded rapidly in recent years and enabled private companies and other organizations to provide revenue streams to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For a CDR technology to participate in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), the emissions associated with constructing and operating the technology must be less than the CO 2 captured from the atmosphere. Assessing the extent to which this is true for direct air capture with storage (DACS), a relatively energy-intensive CDR technology, strongly depends on the accounting method used to assess the emissions intensity of purchased energy. We simulate the hourly weather-dependent operation of sorbent- and solvent-based DACS in California, Louisiana, Texas, and Wyoming, representing a wide range of local weather and electric and natural gas grid compositions. In all cases, the single most important emissions accounting decision is the method used to estimate the emissions intensity of purchased grid electricity, which varies the calculated net removal by −1049% to +108%. All other factors influencing net removal introduce a variation of at most ±14%. No electricity emissions accounting method is universally conservative across all scenarios, and none is objectively more accurate. High-spatiotemporal-resolution, high-quality, publicly available data sets and models for electricity emissions accounting do not currently exist and are urgently needed to enable standardization of emissions accounting methods to more accurately determine the true emissions impacts of DACS and other energy-intensive facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Isopiestic Measurements of Water Adsorption on Uranium Bearing Solids - 1900w

The research focus was to investigate the stability of the multicomponent uranium-bearing precipitates mimicking those created in sediments as a result of alkaline ammonia gas treatment in the vadose zone. Gravimetric measurements of moisture uptake on uranium-bearing precipitates as a function of increasing relative humidity can provide reasonable estimates of the deliquescence point of solid phases or its components. Water moisture uptake by uranium-bearing precipitates as a function of increasing relative humidity was measured at 25 deg. C via the isopiestic method. The conditions for each isotherm were calculated by a division of the amount of adsorbed moisture by the amount of dry precipitate samples. This method can provide estimates of water quantity retained within precipitates conducted in the range of water activities. The desorption portion of the isotherm was obtained by progressively decreasing the water activity or relative pressure in the isopiestic chamber while monitoring the equilibrium amount of moisture sorbed at each relative pressure. The amount of water adsorbed by multicomponent precipitates at a{sub w} = 0.67 ranged between 0.63 and 0.77 g water/g precipitate. Higher water activities or relative humidity values eventually lead to the deliquescence of the solid or its components and the formation of a liquid phase. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Diffusion and perfusion MR parameters to assess preoperative short-course radiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer: a comparative explorative study among Standardized Index of Shape by DCE-MRI, intravoxel incoherent motion- and diffusion kurtosis imaging-derived parameters

Purpose: To assess preoperative short-course radiotherapy (SCR) tumor response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) by means of Standardized Index of Shape (SIS) by dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) and diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) parameters derived from diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI). Materials and methods: Thirty-four patients with LARC who underwent MRI scans before and after SCR followed by delayed surgery, retrospectively, were enrolled. SIS, ADC, IVIM parameters [tissue diffusion (D{sub t}), pseudo-diffusion (D{sub p}), perfusion fraction (f{sub p})] and DKI parameters [mean diffusivity (MD), mean of diffusional kurtosis (MK)] were calculated for each patient. IVIM parameters were estimated using two methods, namely conventional biexponential fitting (CBFM) and variable projection (VARPRO). After surgery, the pathological TNM and tumor regression grade (TRG) were estimated. For each parameter, percentage changes between before and after SCR were evaluated. Furthermore, an artificial neural network was trained for outcome prediction. Nonparametric sample tests and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis were performed. Results: Fifteen patients were classified as responders (TRG ≤ 2) and 19 as not responders (TRG > 3). Seven patients had TRG 1 (pathological complete response, pCR). Mean and standard deviation values of pre-treatment CBFM D{sub p} and mean value of VARPRO D{sub p} pre-treatment showed statistically significant differences to predict pCR. (p value at Mann–Whitney test was 0.05, 0.03 and 0.008, respectively.) Exclusively SIS percentage change showed significant differences between responder and non-responder patients after SCR (p value << 0.001) and to assess pCR after SCR (p value << 0.001). The best results to predict pCR were obtained by VARPRO Fp mean value pre-treatment with area under ROC of 0.84, a sensitivity of 96.4%, a specificity of 71.4%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 92.9%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 83.3% and an accuracy of 91.2%. The best results to assess after treatment complete pathological response were obtained by SIS with an area under ROC of 0.89, a sensitivity of 85.7%, a specificity of 92.6%, a PPV of 75.0%, a NPV of 96.1% and an accuracy of 91.2%. Moreover, the best results to differentiate after treatment responders vs. non-responders were obtained by SIS with an area under ROC of 0.94, a sensitivity of 93.3%, a specificity of 84.2%, a PPV of 82.4%, a NPV of 94.1% and an accuracy of 88.2%. Promising initial results were obtained using a decision tree tested with all ADC, IVIM and DKI extracted parameter: we reached high accuracy to assess pathological complete response after SCR in LARC (an accuracy of 85.3% to assess pathological complete response after SCR using VARPRO D{sub p} mean value post-treatment, ADC standard deviation value pre-treatment, MD standard deviation value post-treatment). Conclusion: SIS is a hopeful DCE-MRI angiogenic biomarker to assess preoperative treatment response after SCR with delayed surgery. Furthermore, an important prognostic role was obtained by VARPRO F{sub p} mean value pre-treatment and by a decision tree composed by diffusion parameters derived by DWI and DKI to assess pathological complete response.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Historical perspectives of BEPU research in US

Civilian nuclear energy started in earnest in the 1950s and experienced rapid growth in 1960-80s with increasingly larger reactors. These reactors were initially regulated based on the experience from the smaller reactors, but this could not be applied to the larger power reactors. Therefore, in 1974 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission set up safety requirements based on defense in depth in 10 CFR 50.46, and set of guidance in 10 CFR 50 presented in Appendix K, for models and simulations of reactor safety analyses, to ensure conservatism in predicted safety parameters. These methods resulted in both conservative safety margins as well as economic and operational penalties. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, a large number of experiential programs provided data that allowed for the creation of best estimate models. These best estimate models showed the conservatism in Appendix K models. In 1988-89, USNRC modified the regulations and allowed the use of best estimate models provided they were coupled to a reliable and defensible measure of uncertainty in the prediction of safety parameters. This change in regulation strongly encouraged global activity for the development of best estimate codes and methods. To aide in this development, the USNRC provided one acceptable approach, the Code Scaling, Acceptability and Uncertainty Evaluation Methodology (CSAU). This approach was later refined in the Evaluation Model Development and Assessment Process (EMDAP).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Source Characterization of the Declared North Korean Nuclear Tests From Regional Distance Coda Wave Spectral Ratios

Abstract Seismic observations of underground nuclear explosions provide crucial data on source yield and depth that cannot easily be estimated from other geophysical methods. However, it is difficult to obtain reliable yield estimates for test sites for which we do not have direct seismic calibration experiments. To obtain source information from uncalibrated sites and paths, local and regional seismic records of six, proximal, declared underground nuclear explosions in North Korea are used to compute spectral ratios of narrow‐band waveform envelopes of body‐wave coda that remove path and site effects to reveal precise, relative source moment. The yields of these explosions are obtained from the observed source ratios by simultaneously fitting the classical source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971), https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0610061675 to all event pairs. The source model provides an impressive fit to the observations considering that the P phase coda derived source spectral ratios did not require a prior knowledge of the source or regionally calibrated corrections to be applied to the data. However, the observed corner frequencies from S wave coda spectral ratios are lower than the source model predictions, but are well fit by models calculated using the corner frequency consistent with the Fisk conjecture. The results presented here provide novel constraints on the spectral distributions of the energy radiated by the sources of the DPRK test series, and allows for an independent evaluation of existing estimated source model parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Saccharide analysis of onion outer epidermal walls

Abstract Background Epidermal cell walls have special structural and biological roles in the life of the plant. Typically they are multi-ply structures encrusted with waxes and cutin which protect the plant from dehydration and pathogen attack. These characteristics may also reduce chemical and enzymatic deconstruction of the wall for sugar analysis and conversion to biofuels. We have assessed the saccharide composition of the outer epidermal wall of onion scales with different analytical methods. This wall is a particularly useful model for cell wall imaging and mechanics. Results Epidermal walls were depolymerized by acidic methanolysis combined with 2M trifluoracetic acid hydrolysis and the resultant sugars were analyzed by high-performance anion-exchange chromatography with pulsed amperometric detection (HPAEC-PAD). Total sugar yields based on wall dry weight were low (53%). Removal of waxes with chloroform increased the sugar yields to 73% and enzymatic digestion did not improve these yields. Analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) of per- O -trimethylsilyl (TMS) derivatives of the sugar methyl glycosides produced by acidic methanolysis gave a high yield for galacturonic acid (GalA) but glucose (Glc) was severely reduced. In a complementary fashion, GC/MS analysis of methyl alditols produced by permethylation gave substantial yields for glucose and other neutral sugars, but GalA was severely reduced. Analysis of the walls by 13 C solid-state NMR confirmed and extended these results and revealed 15% lipid content after chloroform extraction (potentially cutin and unextractable waxes). Conclusions Although exact values vary with the analytical method, our best estimate is that polysaccharide in the outer epidermal wall of onion scales is comprised of homogalacturonan (~ 50%), cellulose (~ 20%), galactan (~ 10%), xyloglucan (~ 10%) and smaller amounts of other polysaccharides. Low yields of specific monosaccharides by some methods may be exaggerated in epidermal walls impregnated with waxes and cutin and call for cautious interpretation of the results.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Raman Lidar Water Vapor Mixing Ratio and Temperature Value-Added Products

This report describes the methods used to estimate profiles of water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) and temperature from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Raman lidars (RL). This includes a description of the equations and the calibration methods that are used, as well as the output datastreams and variable names. We begin with an overview of the ARM RL systems, with a focus on the detection channels used for the WVMR and temperature measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Area Distribution System State Estimation Using Decentralized Physics-Aware Neural Networks

The development of active distribution grids requires more accurate and lower computational cost state estimation. In this paper, the authors investigate a decentralized learning-based distribution system state estimation (DSSE) approach for large distribution grids. The proposed approach decomposes the feeder-level DSSE into subarea-level estimation problems that can be solved independently. The proposed method is decentralized pruned physics-aware neural network (D-P2N2). The physical grid topology is used to parsimoniously design the connections between different hidden layers of the D-P2N2. Monte Carlo simulations based on one-year of load consumption data collected from smart meters for a three-phase distribution system power flow are developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123-node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classic weighted least squares and state-of-the-art learning-based DSSE approaches. Numerical results show that the D-P2N2 outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of estimation accuracy and computational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

NMR spin-echo amplitude estimation

Technologies applicable to NMR spin-echo amplitude estimation are disclosed. Example methods may calibrate for distortion of a shape and estimated amplitude of measured NMR spin or gradient echoes. NMR spin or gradient echo measurements may be performed on a sample. The measured NMR spin or gradient echoes may be used to calculate an echo-shape calibration factor. The echo-shape calibration factor may estimate an effect of echo shape on estimated spin or gradient echo amplitude(s) of the NMR spin or gradient echoes. The echo-shape calibration factor may be used to correct for underestimation or overestimation of the spin or gradient echo amplitude(s).

Walsh, David O.↗