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NASA NTRS1987

Characterization of fault recovery through fault injection on FTMP

The development of fault-injection procedures and statistical analysis techniques to characterize the fault recovery of fault-tolerant systems is described. Pin-level fault-injection was conducted on a fault-tolerant microprocessor computer in order to generate data to assess the utility of current fault-injection sampling methods. The validity of common reliability-modeling assumptions concerning the statistical distribution of recovery times is investigated. A multiple comparison analysis for detecting behavior variations, and a distribution fitting for determining the best fit for the data were conducted. It is observed that the detection behavior is not homogeneous across all data sets, and that none of the factors under experimental control can account for the observed groupings of behavior. It is determined that no single distribution fits all the data sets, and that stratified random sampling and statistically robust parameter-estimation techniques are required to characterize fault detection time.

Finelli, George B.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Algebraic multigrid

The state of the art in algebraic multgrid (AMG) methods is discussed. The interaction between the relaxation process and the coarse grid correction necessary for proper behavior of the solution probes is discussed in detail. Sufficient conditions on relaxation and interpolation for the convergence of the V-cycle are given. The relaxation used in AMG, what smoothing means in an algebraic setting, and how it relates to the existing theory are considered. Some properties of the coarse grid operator are discussed, and results on the convergence of two-level and multilevel convergence are given. Details of an algorithm particularly studied for problems obtained by discretizing a single elliptic, second order partial differential equation are given. Results of experiments with such problems using both finite difference and finite element discretizations are presented.

Ruge, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Subtask 1.5 – CO2 Injection Monitoring with an Optimized Scalable, Automated, Semipermanent Seismic Array

The scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) method is a flexible and relatively cost-effective surface geophysical method for regular time-lapse monitoring of the movement of injected carbon dioxide (CO2) in a reservoir for CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) or geologic CO2 storage operations. It has the advantages of a low-environmental-footprint while monitoring regions of a reservoir from the surface without the need for a regular grid distribution of receivers. Automated data collection is possible. As only time-lapse amplitude changes at the reservoir level due to CO2 movement within the reservoir are monitored, the turnaround time to deliver results from the SASSA method can be short, without the need for long, time-consuming data-processing workflows. As data is collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted a SASSA field test from September 2018 to November 2020 in a portion of the Bell Creek Field in Montana, which implemented new CO2 EOR field activities during the study period. Lessons learned from a proof-of-concept study were incorporated to improve the data quality of the SASSA method and demonstrate the viability of the technology. The EERC implemented several enhancements to improve data quality, including 1) an iterative survey design, which allowed placing the receivers in strategic locations where the movement of the CO2 in the reservoir could be tracked with minimum interference by the cultural noise in the study area; 2) the use of powerful seismic sources in the form of surface orbital vibrators, and 3) data acquisition during optimal periods. History-matched reservoir simulation was performed to predict gas saturation and pressure response induced by CO2 injection in the study area. The results were compared with the SASSA-measured responses to CO2 injection as a partial validation technique. A match between the two methods was observed for most of the SASSA points predicted to have intersected a CO2 saturation change. The validated results provide confidence that the SASSA method can be used independently as a CO2 saturation monitoring technique. As data are collected and processed, incremental information can be provided to the field operator. The critical components of the SASSA workflow for a successful application of the method are the following: Iterative survey design with information about CO2 injection activities from the oilfield operator. A detailed CO2 injection plan is the key driver to select the strategic monitoring location of the SASSA sensors. After this information is incorporated in the initial distribution of sources and receivers in the study area, high-resolution satellite images are used to identify ground locations not affected by cultural noise sources, such as power lines, pipelines/flow lines, or roadways. In the next iteration of the survey design, a scouting trip to the study area is needed to understand more details of the noise sources identified in the previous step and the intensity of the field activities that can also generate noise during the monitoring. Integrating the information from the scouting trip into the survey design to select the optimum source and receiver locations is the final step. Noise attenuation. The variety of noise types during seismic monitoring of an oil field is enormous. Tailored noise characterization and processing at a node-by-node level can enhance the performance and sensitivity of the SASSA technique. Future advancements that could improve the efficiency and application of the SASSA technology include: Gaining a better understanding of the noise field produced by the seismic source to aid the choice of receiver location. Surface noise from the source can overwhelm the small signal changes due to CO2 that the SASSA method measures. Improved data-processing workflow to automatically analyze and adapt to dynamic noise conditions associated with industrial settings. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE- FE0024233.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Data Set Bias and Decision Support with Predictive Uncertainty Through Bayesian Approximations and Convolutional Neural Networks

Individual seismic catalogs can contain multiscale observations from fault level to global scales and associated waveforms from discrete events reflect crustal structure across many different scales and locations. Seismic network aperture, geographic location, and observation distance may not provide informative guidance or intuition on how different catalogs will behave across models trained under different conditions. We rely on uncertainty to provide guardrails for when to trust model decisions, but understanding when our uncertainty is trustworthy is an open challenge. Here, in this work, we explore Bayesian approximation methods for assigning predictive uncertainty in seismic event classification problems. We find that computationally expensive Bayesian approximations do not outperform simple ensemble methods. We also find that when exploiting multiple seismic event catalogs, joint training with data from all the catalogs combined with Bayesian approximations and supervised training for classification can obscure bias and result in less robust uncertainty while also not providing substantial performance benefits compared to training individual models for each catalog.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Opportunities and data requirements for data-driven prognostics and health management in liquid hydrogen storage systems

During the past decade, Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has become an important set of tools in various areas of industry and academic reliability engineering. PHM consists of a variety of mathematical and computational methods used to support data-driven decision-making to increase the safety, availability, and reliability of complex engineering systems. In particular, PHM can provide crucial insight into reliability and safety design improvements for developing technologies where historical performance and failure data are limited. This is the case of hydrogen fueling and storage technologies. This work presents a high-level approach for designing data-driven PHM applications for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) storage systems for hydrogen fueling stations. This paper addresses core aspects of the design, development, and implementation of data-driven PHM applications that can improve the reliability assessment of hydrogen components. The analysis focuses on the relationship between data availability and diagnostic/prognostic capabilities; potential challenges; and integration schemes for current risk mitigation measures. We identify potential condition-monitoring data sources for key components in an LH 2 storage system, including storage tanks, piping, and pumps. Further, we determine that the short-term goals for the implementation of data-driven models in PHM frameworks in hydrogen systems should focus on developing adequate data collection and analysis strategies, as well as exploring the effect on reliability, safety, and regulations for hydrogen systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-scale integration of satellite remote sensing improves characterization of dry-season green-up in an Amazon tropical evergreen forest

In tropical forests, leaf phenology-particularly the pronounced dry-season green-up-strongly regulates biogeochemical cycles of carbon and water fluxes. However, uncertainties remain in the understanding of tropical forest leaf phenology at different spatial scales. Phenocams accurately characterize leaf phenology at the crown and ecosystem scales but are limited to a few sites and time spans of a few years. Time-series satellite observations might fill this gap, but the commonly used satellites (e.g. MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel-2) have resolutions too coarse to characterize single crowns. To resolve this observational challenge, we used the PlanetScope constellation with a 3m resolution and near daily nadir-view coverage. We first developed a rigorous method to cross-calibrate PlanetScope surface reflectance using daily BRDF-adjusted MODIS as the reference. We then used linear spectral unmixing of calibrated PlanetScope to obtain dry-season change in the fractional cover of green vegetation (GV) and non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) at the PlanetScope pixel level. We used the Central Amazon Tapajos National Forest k67 site, as all necessary data (from field to phenocam and satellite observations) was available. For this proof of concept, we chose a set of 22 dates of PlanetScope measurements in 2018 and 16 in 2019, all from the six drier months of the year to provide the highest possible cloud-free temporal resolution. Our results show that MODIS-calibrated dry-season PlanetScope data (1) accurately assessed seasonal changes in ecosystem-scale and crown-scale spectral reflectance; (2) detected an increase in ecosystem-scale GV fraction (and a decrease in NPV fraction) from June to November of both years, consistent with local phenocam observations with R 2 around 0.8; and (3) monitored large seasonal trend variability in crown-scale NPV fraction. Finally, our results highlight the potential of integrating multi-scale satellite observations to extend fine-scale leaf phenology monitoring beyond the spatial limits of phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Path integrals, complex probabilities and the discrete Weyl representation

Abstract A discrete formulation of the real-time path integral as the expectation value of a functional of paths with respect to a complex probability on a sample space of discrete valued paths is explored. The formulation in terms of complex probabilities is motivated by a recent reinterpretation of the real-time path integral as the expectation value of a potential functional with respect to a complex probability distribution on cylinder sets of paths. The discrete formulation in this work is based on a discrete version of the Weyl algebra that can be applied to any observable with a finite number of outcomes. The origin of the complex probability in this work is the completeness relation. In the discrete formulation the complex probability exactly factors into products of conditional probabilities and exact unitarity is maintained at each level of approximation. The approximation of infinite dimensional quantum systems by discrete systems is discussed. The method is illustrated by applying it to scattering theory and quantum field theory. The implications of these applications for quantum computing is discussed.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2017

Monodispersed Zinc Oxide Nanoparticle-Dye Dyads and Triads

The overall energy conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells depends on the combined efficiencies of light absorption, charge separation and charge transport. Dye-sensitized solar cells are photovoltaic devices in which a molecular dye absorbs light and uses this energy to initiate charge separation. The most efficient dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) use nanocrystal titanium dioxide films to which are attached ruthenium complexes. Numerous studies have provided valuable insight into the dynamics of these and analogous photosystems, but the lack of site homogeneity in binding dye molecules to metal oxide films and nanocrystals (NCs) is a significant impediment to extracting fundamental details about the electron transfer across the interface. Although zinc oxide is emerging as a potential semiconducting component in DSSCs, there is less known about the factors controlling charge separation across the dye/ZnO interface. Zinc oxide crystallizes in the wurtzite lattice and has a band gap of 3.37 eV. One of the features that makes ZnO especially attractive is the remarkable ability to control the morphology of the films. Using solution deposition processes, one can prepare NCs, nanorods and nanowires having a variety of shapes and dimensions. This project solved problems associated with film heterogeneity through the use of dispersible sensitizer/ZnO NC ensembles. The overarching goal of this research was to study the relationship between structure, energetics and dynamics in a set of synthetically controlled donor-acceptor dyads and triads. These studies provided access to unprecedented understanding of the light absorption and charge transfer steps that lie at the heart of DSSCs, thus enabling significant future advances in cell efficiencies. The approach began with the construction of well-defined dye-NC dyads that were sufficiently dispersible to allow the use of state of the art pulsed laser spectroscopic and kinetic methods to understand the charge transfer events at a fundamental level. This was combined with the synthesis of a broad range of sensitizers that provide systematic variation of the energetics, excited state dynamics, structure and interfacial bonding. The key is that the monodisperse nature and high dispersibility of the ZnO NCs made these experiments reproducible; in essence, the measurements were on discrete molecular species rather than on the complicated mixtures that resulted from the typical fabrication of functional photovoltaic cells. The monodispersed nature of the NCs also allowed the use of quantum confinement to investigate the role of donor/acceptor energetic alignment in chemically identical systems. The results added significantly to our basic understanding of energy and charge transfer events at molecule-semiconductor interfaces and will help the R&D community realize zinc oxide's full potential in solar cell applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating the cost and energy demand of producing lithium manganese oxide for Li-ion batteries

Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) is one of the important cathode active materials used in lithium ion batteries of several electric vehicles. In this paper, the production of LMO cathode material for use in lithium-ion batteries is studied. Spreadsheet-based process models have been set up to estimate and analyze the factors affecting the cost of manufacturing, the energy demand, and the environmental impact. Two processes based on the solid-state synthesis method and a sol-gel method have been explored. Results show that the solid-state process is more cost-effective because of its lower cost of raw materials. The production cost for a solid-state process is $7 kg -1 and requires 6 kWh·kg -1 of energy. The pack level cost of electric vehicle battery using LMO as a primary active material is studied as a function of LMO production cost and other parameters. The potential for reducing the cost of automotive batteries to $100 per kWh is explored in terms of LMO price and plant production volume (economy of scale), using Argonne’s BatPaC spreadsheet tool.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1980

Spherical harmonic analysis of a synoptic climatology generated with a global general circulation model

Spherical harmonic analysis was used to analyze the observed climatological (C) fields of temperature at 850 mb, geopotential height at 500 mb, and sea level pressure. The spherical harmonic method was also applied to the corresponding "model climatological" fields (M) generated by a general circulation model, the "GISS climate model." The climate model was initialized with observed data for the first of December 1976 at 00. GMT and allowed to generate five years of meteorological history. Monthly means of the above fields for the five years were computed and subjected to spherical harmonic analysis. It was found from the comparison of the spectral components of both sets, M and C, that the climate model generated reasonable 500 mb geopotential heights. The model temperature field at 850 mb exhibited a generally correct structure. However, the meridional temperature gradient was overestimated and overheating of the continents was observed in summer.

Christidis, Z. D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Entropy, instrument scan, and pilot workload

Experimental results are presented from a set of experiments designed to explore the relationship between the performance, skill, and visual scanning behavior of pilots under varying levels of mental workload. Instrument fixations were recorded as groups of pilots with widely differing levels of skill simultaneously performed a continuous instrument flight task and a verbally presented loading task with four discrete levels. Pilot scanning patterns were found to be significantly affected by the level of mental workload in a manner that was dependent on skill. These scanning alterations were quantified by the methods of entropy and autocorrelation, where the former concerns visual scan path and the latter assesses the relations among scan periodicity, skill level and mental task periodicity.

Tole, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Atmospheric Pressure Effects on Cryogenic Storage Tank Boil-Off

The Cryogenics Test Laboratory (CTL) at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) routinely utilizes cryostat test hardware to evaluate comparative and absolute thermal conductivities of a wide array of insulation systems. The test method is based on measurement of the flow rate of gas evolved due to evaporative boil-off of a cryogenic liquid. The gas flow rate typically stabilizes after a period of a couple of hours to a couple of days, depending upon the test setup. The stable flow rate value is then used to calculate the thermal conductivity for the insulation system being tested. The latest set of identical cryostats, 1,000-L spherical tanks, exhibited different behavior. On a macro level, the flow rate did stabilize after a couple of days; however the stable flow rate was oscillatory with peak to peak amplitude of up to 25 percent of the nominal value. The period of the oscillation was consistently 12 hours. The source of the oscillation has been traced to variations in atmospheric pressure due to atmospheric tides similar to oceanic tides. This paper will present analysis of this phenomenon, including a calculation that explains why other cryostats are not affected by it.

Sass, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Advanced Concepts

Before there is a funded space mission, there must be a present need for the mission. Space science and exploration are expensive, and without a well-defined and justifiable need, no one is going to commit significant funding for any space endeavor. However, as discussed in Chapter 1, applications of space technology and many and broad, hence there are many ways to determine and establish a mission need. Robotic science missions are justified by their science return. To be selected for flight, questions like these must be addressed: What is the science question that needs answering, and will the proposed mission be the most cost-effective way to answer it? Why does answering the question require an expensive space flight, instead of some ground-based alternative? If the question can only be answered by flying in space, then why is this approach better than other potential approaches? How much will it cost? And is the technology required to answer the question in hand and ready to use? If not, then how much will it cost and how long will it take to mature the technology to a usable level? There are also many ways to justify human exploration missions, including science return, technology advancement, as well as intangible reasons, such as national pride. Nonetheless, many of the questions that need answering, are similar to those for robotic science missions: Where are the people going, why, and will the proposed mission be the most cost-effective way to get there? What is the safest method to achieve the goal? How much will it cost? And is the technology required to get there and keep the crew alive in hand and ready to use? If not, then how much will it cost and how long will it take to mature the technology to a usable level? Another reason for some groups sending spacecraft into space is for profit. Telecommunications, geospatial imaging, and tourism are examples of proven, market-driven space missions and applications. For this specific set of users, the outstanding questions include: What is the product or service? Who will buy it? How can it be profitable? What is the most cost-effective solution to fielding the product or service? And, of course, is the technology in-hand or is there advanced development required? In order to answer these questions, the responsibility falls to a specially-skilled set of engineers and scientists who understand how to assess the readiness of new technologies.

Johnson, Les↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Methods for Analyzing Computer Models

Efficient analysis of computer models is essential for the validation and uncertainty quantification of those models. Surrogate models, and Gaussian processes in particular, are a common and powerful approach to analyzing computer models that treat computer models as a black-box function. Gaussian processes form a Bayesian model over a space of functions that gives a measure of uncertainty about the computer model output at unobserved locations and a framework for sequential sampling. This tutorial will show how to fit Gaussian processes on a series of test functions and apply sequential design techniques to estimate extrema, level sets, and reliabilities of those test functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probing the Potential Energy Profile of the I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH Forward and Reverse Reactions: High Level CCSD(T) Studies with Spin-Orbit Coupling Included

Three different pathways for the atomic iodine plus water trimer reaction I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH were preliminarily examined by the DFT-MPW1K method. Related to previous predictions for the F/Cl/Br + (H 2 O) 3 reactions, three pathways for the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction are linked in terms of geometry and energetics. To legitimize the results, the “gold standard” CCSD(T) method was employed to investigate the lowest-lying pathway with the correlation-consistent polarized valence basis set up to cc-pVQZ(-PP). According to the CCSD(T)/cc-pVQZ(-PP)//CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ(-PP) results, the I + (H 2 O) 3 → HI + (H 2 O) 2 OH reaction is predicted to be endothermic by 47.0 kcal mol -1 . The submerged transition state is predicted to lie 43.7 kcal mol -1 above the separated reactants. The I···(H 2 O) 3 entrance complex lies below the separated reactants by 4.1 kcal mol -1 , and spin-orbit coupling has a significant impact on this dissociation energy. The HI···(H 2 O) 2 OH exit complex is bound by 4.3 kcal mol -1 in relation to the separated products. Compared with simpler I + (H 2 O) 2 and I + H 2 O reactions, the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction is energetically between them in general. It is speculated that the reaction between the iodine atom and the larger water clusters may be energetically analogous to the I + (H 2 O) 3 reaction. The iodine reaction I + (H 2 O) 3 is connected with the analogous valence isoelectronic bromine/chlorine reactions Br/Cl + (H 2 O) 3 but much different from the F + (H 2 O) 3 reaction. Significant difference with other halogen systems, especially for barrier heights, are seen for the iodine systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Reduced-order microstructure-sensitive protocols to rank-order the transition fatigue resistance of polycrystalline microstructures

We present that the transition fatigue regime between low cycle fatigue (LCF) and high cycle fatigue (HCF) is often addressed in the design and performance evaluation of load-bearing components used in many structural applications. Transition fatigue is characterized by elevated levels of local inelastic deformation in significant regions of the microstructure as compared to HCF. Typically, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations are performed to model this phenomenon and to rank-order microstructures by their resistance to crack formation and early growth in the regime of transition fatigue. Unfortunately, these approaches require significant computational resources, inhibiting their use to explore novel materials for transition fatigue resistance. Reduced-order, microstructure-sensitive models are needed to accelerate the search for next-generation, fatigue-resistant materials. In a recent study, Paulson et al. (2018) extended the materials knowledge system (MKS) framework for rank-ordering the HCF resistance of polycrystalline microstructures. The efficacy of this approach lies in the reduced-dimensional representation of microstructures through 2-point spatial correlations and principal component analysis (PCA), in addition to the characterization of the HCF response with a small set of performance measures. In this work, these same protocols are critically evaluated for their applicability to rank-order the transition fatigue resistance of the same class of polycrystalline microstructures subjected to increased strain amplitudes. Success in this endeavor requires the formation of homogenization linkages that account for the significantly higher levels of local inelastic deformation and stress redistribution in transition fatigue as compared to HCF. Finally, a set of 12 α-titanium microstructures generated using the open access DREAM.3D software (Groeber and Jackson, 2014) are employed for this evaluation.

2-point correlations↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impact of spectroscopic incompleteness in direct calibration of redshift distributions for weak lensing surveys

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurate distributions of galaxy redshifts is a critical aspect of weak lensing cosmology experiments. One of the methods used to estimate and validate redshift distributions is to apply weights to a spectroscopic sample, so that their weighted photometry distribution matches the target sample. In this work, we estimate the selection bias in redshift that is introduced in this procedure. We do so by simulating the process of assembling a spectroscopic sample (including observer-assigned confidence flags) and highlight the impacts of spectroscopic target selection and redshift failures. We use the first year (Y1) weak lensing analysis in Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example data set but the implications generalize to all similar weak lensing surveys. We find that using colour cuts that are not available to the weak lensing galaxies can introduce biases of up to Δz ∼ 0.04 in the weighted mean redshift of different redshift intervals (Δz ∼ 0.015 in the case most relevant to DES). To assess the impact of incompleteness in spectroscopic samples, we select only objects with high observer-defined confidence flags and compare the weighted mean redshift with the true mean. We find that the mean redshift of the DES Y1 weak lensing sample is typically biased at the Δz = 0.005−0.05 level after the weighting is applied. The bias we uncover can have either sign, depending on the samples and redshift interval considered. For the highest redshift bin, the bias is larger than the uncertainties in the other DES Y1 redshift calibration methods, justifying the decision of not using this method for the redshift estimations. We discuss several methods to mitigate this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Benchmark Eddy Flux Evapotranspiration Dataset for Evaluation of Satellite-Driven Evapotranspiration Models Over the CONUS

A large sample of ground-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements made in the United States, primarily from eddy covariance systems, were post-processed to produce a benchmark ET dataset. The dataset was produced primarily to support the intercomparison and evaluation of the OpenET satellite-based remote sensing ET (RSET) models and could also be used to evaluate ET data from other models and approaches. OpenET is a web-based service that makes field-delineated and pixel-level ET estimates from well-established RSET models readily available to water managers, agricultural producers, and the public. The benchmark dataset is composed of flux and meteorological data from a variety of providers covering native vegetation and agricultural settings. Flux footprint predictions were developed for each station and included static flux footprints developed based on average wind direction and speed, as well as dynamic hourly footprints that were generated with a physically based model of upwind source area. The two footprint prediction methods were rigorously compared to evaluate their relative spatial coverage. Data from all sources were post-processed in a consistent and reproducible manner including data handling, gap-filling, temporal aggregation, and energy balance closure correction. The resulting dataset included 243,048 daily and 5,284 monthly ET values from 194 stations, with all data falling between 1995 and 2021. We assessed average daily energy imbalance using 172 flux sites with a total of 193,021 days of data, finding that overall turbulent fluxes were understated by about 12% on average relative to available energy. Multiple linear regression analyses indicated that daily average latent energy flux may be typically understated slightly more than sensible heat flux. This dataset was developed to provide a consistent reference to support evaluation of RSET data being developed for a wide range of applications related to water accounting and water resources management at field to watershed scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗